Since today is June 3rd, please join me in a moment of silence in remembrance that today is the day that Billy Joe McAlister jumped off the Tallahatchie Bridge. Thank you …
Earlier this week, I reviewed Heisman Trophy winners from 1935 to 1999 and how they performed in professional football. I labeled that time as the Heisman Era of the Running Back with about two-thirds of the Heisman winners coming from that position. And then starting in the year 2000, it is as if someone flipped a switch and the minds of the Heisman voters changed focus and only focused on QBs; since 2000, the Heisman winner has been a QB in 22 of the 26 years. Here are the winners in the current Heisman Era of the Quarterback:
- 2000 Chris Weinke – – QB: Five marginal seasons in the NFL
- 2001 Eric Crouch – – QB: No NFL games but played in CFL, AAFL and UFL
- 2002 Carson Palmer – – QB: Fourteen solid seasons in the NFL
- 2003 Jason White – – QB: Never played pro football and was not drafted by any NFL teams
- 2004 Matt Leinart – – QB: Six mediocre NFL seasons
- 2005 Reggie Bush – – RB: Eleven “good-not-great” seasons in the NFL
- 2006 Troy Smith – – QB: Four underwhelming seasons in the NFL
- 2007 Tim Tebow – – QB: Three years in the NFL; one decent season
- 2008 Sam Bradford – – QB: Eight mediocre seasons in the NFL
- 2009 Mark Ingram – – RB: Twelve years in the NFL; three Pro-Bowls
- 2010 Cam Newton – – QB: Eleven years in NFL: three Pro Bowls; one All-Pro; one MVP
- 2011 Robert Griffin III – – QB: Excellent rookie season then six mediocre years due to injury
- 2012 Johnny Manzeil – – QB: Two bad years in NFL; played in CFL and the AAFL
- 2013 Jameis Winston – – QB: Eleven decent years in the NFL – – and counting
- 2014 Marcus Mariota – – QB: Eleven decent years in the NFL – – and counting
- 2015 Derrick Henry – – QB: Ten excellent NFL seasons; one All-Pro and five Pro Bowls
- 2016 Lamar Jackson – – QB: Eight NFL seasons; three All-Pros; four Pro Bowls; one MVP
- 2017 Baker Mayfield – – QB: Eight NFL seasons “good-not-great”.
- 2018 Kyler Murray – – QB: Seven NFL seasons; two Pro Bowls; “Prove-it” contract this year
- 2019 Joe Burrow – – QB: Six NFL seasons; twice Comeback Player of the Year
- 2020 Devonta Smith – – WR: Five solid NFL seasons
- 2021 Bryce Young – – QB: Three “good-not-great” NFL seasons; the jury is still out…
- 2022 Caleb Williams – – QB: One mediocre NFL season and one very good NFL season …
- 2023 Jayden Daniels – – QB: Excellent rookie season then injured in season number two
- 2024 Travis Hunter – – DB/WR: Injured in middle of rookie season …
- 2025 Fernando Mendoza – – QB: TBD
Once again, the performances by the “best college football player in the country” at the professional level seems a bit thin. I have a theory as to why that is the case; I believe it is baked into the selection process. Recall:
- Over 800 sports journalists get a vote.
- Prior Heisman winners each get a vote
- Fans collectively get one vote.
Only in an extraordinary circumstance will the tallies of the fans and the previous Heisman winners matter at all; the overwhelming likelihood is that the sports writers will determine the winner. And the problem there is that sports writers already have full-time jobs and even if you were to narrow down the worthy Heisman candidates to a half-dozen candidates, most sports writers would not have the time to spare to watch each of the candidates play in three or four games to get a full measure of their performance levels. Do the math:
Six candidates X 3 games per candidate X 2 hours per game = 36 hours.
That does not count time to find the games to watch on the Internet or the time to make notes and reflect on what the game tape shows. Elections work best when there is an “informed electorate” and I doubt that happens with Heisman voting simply because those voters do not have the opportunity to do an evaluation with their own eyes.
I watch a lot of college football, and I know I do not see enough of any Heisman candidates to begin to rank order the nominees. I cannot imagine that sportswriters with deadlines to meet have the time to do what I as a retiree cannot do.
Ergo some of the voting must be done based on reports from other sports writers and from stat sheets. Well, it is a lot easier to find stats for QBs and RBs than it is for other positions and it is a lot easier – and more commonplace – to find paeans of praise for QBs and RBs than it is for other positions. In the last 90 years, isn’t it possible that the “best college football player” was an Offensive Tackle? But unless most of the voters got to see such a player live and in color, how would the voter begin to “discover” this player?
This is not a “problem” that “needs fixing” because – truth be told – it does not matter much at all if the Heisman winner goes on to greatness as a pro football player. Let me invoke a cliché here:
“It is what it is.”
The Heisman selection process is much more like a beauty contest than it is like an objective deductive procedure. And there is nothing wrong with that.
Here are two data for NFL GMs as they develop their “Draft Boards”.
- Ten Heisman winners so far have made it to the Pro Football Hall of Fame
- Ten Heisman winners so far never played a down in pro football.
Finally, here is a cogent observation by Mark Twain:
“A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………
Future success in pro football is not a selection criterion for the Heisman trophy, nor should it be. . The games at these levels are different. Success at the college level at quarterback is rooted in physical ability: running and throwing. At the pro level a successful quarterback must have the physical abilities and the mental sharpness to know where and when to throw it. The mental part is almost never developed in college because it is not necessary. College offenses and defenses are simpler because college players are generally unable to execute something more complex.
Exhibit A in this argument is Manziel, a physically talented airhead. He was a deserving Heisman winner, but everyone but the Cleveland owner knew he had no future in pro football.
Gil:
You are right. The NFL game is different from the college game – – just as the college game is different from high school football. Look at how many “5-Star recruits” turn out to be “merely ordinary”.
Nice couple of rants that don’t matter much. It’s an interesting topic to discuss, but I agree with Gil. A while back you did a rant on #1 draft choices and even the pro owners and ADs miss on a bunch. Sports writers are less likely to do better.
It will be interesting to see if Mendoza (Heisman and #1 draft choice) excels in the NFL.
I like the topic. The hope of this Raider fan is that Fernando Mendoza holds the clipboard on the sidelines for the entire 2026 season. Will that happen? Doubtful. But we must learn the lesson of Derek Carr.