The arrival of September means that the MLB regular season is in the home stretch; this is an opportune time to check in and see how the races are shaping up; which teams have surprised and which have disappointed. Back in March, I made some season predictions so let me peek and see how they look on September 1st.
- Yankees to win AL East: The Yanks are in second place trailing the Rays by 4.5 games this morning. That is not an impossible hurdle for them to overcome but given that the Rays have more wins than any other AL team, the Rays may be hard to catch.
- Tigers to win the AL Central: That is simply not happening. The Tigers are 11 games under .500, and they gave up the ghost at the trading deadline by trading away their two best pitchers.
- Mariners to win the AL West: As of today, the Mariners are in third place 6 games behind the division leading Astros with the Rangers in second place. This gap may actually be easier to overcome because the Astros are only 2 games over .500 and the Rangers are 2 games under .500. A ten-game hot streak by the Mariners could put them in charge. We shall see …
- Phillies to win the NL East: They are 4 games behind the Braves this morning and that could be a tough climb, but they look comfortably in the playoff picture. The Braves have survived the injury bug this year very effectively.
- Cubs to win the NL Central: The Cubs trail the Brewers by 7 games, and the Brewers have the best record in all of MLB. The Cubbies will have to settle for a playoff spot this year.
- Dodgers to win the NL West: Duh! The Dodgers have a 9-game pad over the Padres in the division.
I also mentioned in March some teams that might be dark horses this year.
- Red Sox: They started horribly and then had an incredible hot streak. But that was not enough to dig them out of the hole they fashioned for themselves. They should make the AL playoffs though.
- Royals: Fuhgeddaboudit! The Royals are 14 games below .500
- Giants: They are in even worse shape than the Royals; as of this morning they are 25.5 games behind the Dodgers and there are not enough games left on the schedule for them to catch the Dodgers.
- D-Backs: They are not going to catch the Dodgers, but the D-Backs are 7 games over .500 as of this morning.
I suggested 5 season long win total wagers back in March:
- Orioles UNDER 86.5 wins: Looks good for now; the O’s project to have 81 wins.
- Tigers OVER 85.wins: Not happening; the Tigers would have to go 23-2 in their remaining games to make this work.
- Mets UNDER 90.5 wins: This is a lock; the Mets cannot get to that win total even if they win every one of their remaining 24 games.
- Reds UNDER 81.5 wins: The Reds are 8 games under .500 this morning with 24 games to play. To go over the total, they would have to post a record in September of 17-7. Could happen – – but not likely.
- D-Backs OVER 79.5 wins: This looks solid; the team projection as of today is for 85 wins.
- Not bad … only one certified clunker in that set of predictions.
As the September games unfold, keep an eye on the Astros’ box scores to track the stats of Yordan Alvarez. Here’s why:
- He leads the AL in batting average, HRs and RBIs. The last player to win the Triple Crown in the AL was Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and before him it was Carl Yazstemski in 1966.
- AND … He has a longshot at having the highest batting average and the most home runs and the most RBIs in all of MLB. Mickey Mantle did that in 1956; before that Ty Cobb did it in 1909.
Another thing to watch is the performance of the Chicago White Sox. They had lost more than 100 games in each of the last 3 seasons including losing 121 games in 2024. Right now, the White Sox lead the AL Central by 3 games over the Guardians. They look awfully solid as a playoff team either as the division winner or as a wild card team.
Finally, I’ll close today with some thoughts from famous baseball people:
“Confidence is how you go about your business. Cocky is when you have to explain it to somebody.” [Ken Griffey Jr.]
And …
“Pressure is a word that is misused in our vocabulary. When you start thinking of pressure, it’s because you’ve started to think of failure.” [Tommy Lasorda]
And …
“The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three-run homers.” [Earl Weaver]
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………