Earlier this week, the rant focused on players taken Overall #1 in the NBA Draft over the last 30 years and how they performed at the pro level. A reader whose screen name is “Harboiled”, posted this comment:
“Really enjoyed your analysis of the number one draft picks. It would be really interesting to see something similar involving all the quarterbacks taken number one and how they faired. But, that’s for another day. And yes, I can now sleep peacefully at night knowing that Aaron Rodgers will be coming back for yet another year.”
Well, “another day” has arrived. The idea was tempting as soon as I read it, but I figured I would need a weekend to compile the data. I started Wednesday evening just to get an idea of how long it might take and then last evening after watching a Smithsonian Associates lecture via Zoom, I took up the “research” again. Talk about getting on a roll; the next thing I knew, it was 3:30 AM and the data was compiled. So, here is my response to Harboiled’s suggestion from earlier this week.
The NFL Draft began in 1936; Bert Bell who then owned the Eagles – and who would later become NFL Commissioner – thought up the idea and sold it to his fellow owners. Bell obviously had some enlightened self-interest going on; the Eagles were the worst team in the league at that time, and he would get the first pick. Whatever; the owners agreed; there was no players’ union; the Draft came to be.
Looking back, it was not common in the early portions of the Draft for a QB to go Overall #1; that may seem very strange given the current trend but between 1936 and 2000 – – 65 annual NFL Drafts – – only 18 players taken Overall #1 were QBs. Since 2000, there have been 20 QBs taken Overall #1 in 26 Drafts.
As with the NBA draft picks, I have assigned each pick to one of six categories:
- Hall of Fame – – either inducted or someone I think deserves to be there
- Star – – Not ready to put him in the HoF but better than the next category down
- Good Not Great – – self explanatory
- Meh! – – self explanatory
- Bust – – self-explanatory
- TBD – – Not enough data yet to categorize these players
And now without further ado, here are the QBs taken Overall #1 in the NFL:
1944 Angelo Bertelli Bust – – 3 years in pro football
1946 Frank Dancewiz Bust – – No pro football stats at all
1952 Bill Wade Meh! – – Bounced around for 13 years
1954 Bobby Garrett Bust – – One year in the NFL
1955 George Shaw Meh! – – Eight seasons in the NFL
1956 Gary Glick Bust – – 7 years in NFL as a DB and Kicker
1958 King Hill Meh! – – 12 years in NFL
1959 Randy Duncan Bust – – 1 year in the NFL
1963 Terry Baker Bust – – 3 seasons and a total of 4 starts
1970 Terry Bradshaw HoF – – Obviously
1971 Jim Plunkett GNG – – Yes, I know he won 2 Super Bowls …
1975 Steve Bartkowski GNG – – 12 years in NFL
1983 John Elway HoF – – Obviously
1987 Vinny Testaverde GNG – – 21 years in the NFL
1989 Troy Aikman HoF – – Obviously
1990 Jeff George Meh! – – Maybe biggest squandered talent ever
1993 Drew Bledsoe GNG – – Never got his job back from Tom Brady
1998 Peyton Manning HoF – – Obviously
1999 Tim Couch Bust – – 5 undistinguished seasons in the NFL
2001 Michael Vick GND – – Missed several years while incarcerated
2002 David Carr Meh! – – In 94 games he was sacked 267 times
2003 Carson Palmer GNG – – 14 credible seasons in the NFL
2004 Eli Manning HoF – – He should be there already
2005 Alex Smith GNG – – 14 seasons in the NFL and horrific injuries
2007 JaMarcus Russell Bust – – Let there be no doubt …
2009 Matthew Stafford HoF – – I project him in the HoF when eligible
2010 Sam Bradford Bust – – 8 mediocre seasons in the NFL
2011 Cam Newton GNG – – Had one GREAT year and 10 “good” years
2012 Andrew Luck GNG – – Was not around very long
2015 Jameis Winston Meh! – – Great as a backup QB
2016 Jared Goff GNG – – Still playing well
2018 Baker Mayfield GNG – – Had some rough years to start with
2019 Kyler Murray Meh! – – I tossed a coin between “Meh!” and “Bust”
2020 Joe Burrow Star – – Too soon to have him in HoF but he is a Star
2021 Trevor Lawrence GNG – – Might emerge as a star?
2023 Bryce Young Meh! – – I am not convinced …
2024 Caleb Williams Star – – I think he will be a Star
2025 Cam Ward ??? – – Sorry, not going to speculate here
2026 Fernando Mendoza ??? – – Let him start a game before rating him
Here is my breakdown:
- Hall of Fame: 6 players
- Stars: 2 players
- Good Not Great: 12 players
- Meh!: 8 players
- Bust: 8 players
- TBD: 2 players – – Cam Ward and Fernando Mendoza
Here are two interesting takeaways from the list above:
- It was not until the 9th NFL Draft in 1944 that a QB went Overall #1.
- Sixteen of those Overall #1 picks were either “Meh!” or “Bust”; Twenty were either “Hall of Fame”, “Stars” or “Good Not Great”. Teams making these picks did not do much better than a coin flip on pro performance.
Here are four other observations from looking at past NFL Drafts:
- The Eagles had the Overall #1 pick in the first two Drafts and were unable to sign either player.
- In the 5 Drafts between 1972 and 1976, teams took 4 Defensive Ends and 1 QB as the Overall #1 pick.
- In the 3 Drafts between 1968 and 1970, the player taken Overall #1 made it to the Hall of Fame (Ron Yary, OJ Simpson and Terry Bradshaw)
- The last player taken Overall #1 to make the Hall of Fame is Peyton Manning drafted in 1998.
Finally, the outcome of having the Overall #1 has an element of luck involved in the selection and so I’ll close with this declaration by comedian Steven Wright:
“I busted a mirror and got seven years bad luck, but my lawyer thinks he can get me five.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………