RIP Irv Cross

Irv Cross died yesterday at the age of 81.  After a career on the field in the NFL with the Eagles and Rams, Irv Cross became a studio anchor for CBS – the first Black man to be in that position.  He, along with Brent Musberger, Jimmy the Greek and Phyllis George created the concept of the modern NFL pregame show – – The NFL Today.

Rest in peace, Irv Cross.

Today, I want to delve into the world of money and NFL football; they do go hand in hand.  For the first aspect of this topic, I need to direct you to this very long piece on ESPN.com by Don Van Natta, Jr. and Seth Wickersham.  This is an example of investigative sports journalism that is well researched and very well written.  The headline here is:

  • “Inside the dual legacies of NFL players’ union boss DeMaurice Smith”

Please take about 10 minutes with a cup of coffee – or tea if you prefer – to follow the link above to learn about some of the inner workings of the NFLPA over the last decade or so.  To induce you to take the time to read this, you will find a quote in there by Jerry Jones that almost makes sense in the context of the article even though you may wonder how that can possibly be the case.  Here is the quote:

“The owls are f**king the chickens.”

From this report, it is pretty clear that DeMaurice Smith has not been the firebrand/in-your-face/ take-no-prisoners sort of union leader that people like Marvin Miller or Walter Reuther or John L. Lewis were in the past.  The NFL and the NFLPA have had plenty of confrontations over the past couple of decades but none of them resulted in taking the game off the field and onto a picket line.  There are some folks in this article who believe that Smith and the union have given too much ground over the last decade or so and that they should have driven a harder bargain.  I would argue that will always be the case when a tense negotiation comes to an end.

Rather than look at DeMaurice Smith as a watered-down version of a union leader, I think he has done his part in growing the league – – and growing the league means growing the amount of money that flows through to the players in terms of salaries.  Yes, the split could be further leveraged toward the players but the salary cap until last year with COVID-19 had grown almost 50% in the last decade.  There are not a lot of jobs in the US where that is the case; the NFL players were doing well under the deals orchestrated by Smith and his staff.

From my reading, one of the largest inequities among NFL players is that they have within their ranks a great deal of income inequality.  Star players and QBs make tens of millions of dollars a year; lots more players make the league minimum which is about $600K for now.  Shed no tears for the grunts here; if they hang on in the league for 3 years – about the average for a random NFL player – they will have made $1.8M by the time they are in their mid-20s.  There are lots of folks in the US who would look at that financial situation and wish it had happened to them.

What Smith and the union seem to have done is to bargain in such a way to keep the show on TV because that is where the big bucks that support the salary cap come from.  That is the balancing act he has had to do in his head and on the fly as negotiations ebbed and flowed.  And while I agree that the last deal done by the NFL and the NFLPA extends for an inordinately long time – 10 years – I think that it provides exactly the environment necessary to “grow the game” thereby growing the salary cap.

And that brings me to the next point for this morning – – the negotiations now underway between the NFL and various media outlets for new broadcast rights deals.  Some reports say that the NFL is seeking to double the revenues from the networks and the streaming services in the next deal.  I have no idea if they will get that sort of increase, but two of the provisions of the latest CBA might entice the networks to cough up that kind of money:

  • Labor peace for 9 more years = no fears about games being canceled or having to pretend that replacement players make for good television
  • The flexibility/virtual certainty of adding a 17th regular season game to the NFL schedule.

The NFL can portray to its “broadcast partners” that they will have the most popular TV programming in expanded form for the next 9 years without fear of a work-stoppage outside a stochastic event such as a new pandemic.  Moreover, for the right price of course, bidders other than the “Big 3” networks – CBS, FOX and NBC – might be added to the power rotation to televise the Super Bowl.

There are reports of these ongoing media rights negotiations which I take to be informative because the gist of the information appears in various places.  I do not know if they indicate a 100% increase in TV revenues for the NFL, but whatever the new revenue stream turns out to be, it will be significantly more than it has been up until now.

  • Reports say that NBC has enjoyed a “sweetheart deal” for Sunday Night Football and that it will have to cough up a lot more to keep that franchise in the new deal.  NBC pays the NFL $950M per year for this programming.  NBC enjoys flex scheduling late in the year to give it meaningful games and it is in the Super Bowl rotation.  Compare that to the ESPN deal for Monday Night Football which is $2B per year without flex scheduling and no Super Bowl participation.
  • Thursday Night Football is an interesting negotiation situation.  FOX has been partnered with NFL Network doing the games recently and paying $650M per year for those rights.  Thursday NFL games draw the smallest audiences and reports say that FOX wants out of that package.  There is no benefit to the league to put the games on NFL Network exclusively since the league owns the network and that is not how to leverage revenue increases.  However, reports say that Amazon is interested in that property for its streaming service.  Not only could that be a way to increase revenues for Thursday Night Football but adding Amazon to the mix for a full package of games introduces a new bidder – with deep pockets – to the equation for down the road.  On the other hand, would Amazon want to pony up big money for streaming rights if it had to share the games with NFL Network?  There is a lot to unravel here…

Before anyone points to the decline in ratings for NFL games last year and the Super Bowl audience drop of about 9%, please consider that 2020 is an anomalous year for television, sports and just about everything else in America.  Other sports leagues saw ratings for their championship events plummet last year; the NBA ratings for the Finals were down 49%.  I think it is important to look at longer term trends as well as to 2020 in this situation.

  • Sunday Night Football has been the #1 prime time TV series for the last 10 years in a row.
  • Football Night in America which leads into SNF has been the highest rated studio show for the last 15 years.
  • In 2020, the top 5 TV shows of the year in terms of viewership were NFL games as were 7 of the top 10.
  • In 2020, 30 of the top 100 TV shows in terms of viewership were NFL games.
  • Eight NFL games drew larger audiences than did the most widely viewed Presidential debate.

That is why networks will pay more for these broadcast rights in the next set of deals and it is why the salary cap for players in the NFL will recover from the decline suffered in 2020 due to the loss of “live gate revenues” caused by COVID-19.  Some argue that DeMaurice Smith and the NFLPA should have gotten a “bigger portion” of the league revenues in exchange for that 17th game which is unpopular with the players.  Maybe he could have and maybe he should have.  Nevertheless, the outcome here is that NFL salaries will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.  Now, if the NFLPA wants to tackle its internal problem of “income inequality”, that is an issue that only has tangential involvement with the NFL.  If that is a “problem to be solved”, it is one that more directly involves the NFLPA negotiating with player agents and NFLPA members themselves.

Finally, Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times had this item in his column last weekend:

“NFL owners are pushing to implement a 17-game schedule for this coming season.

“’A$ you might $u$pect, we have our rea$ons for playing $eventeen,’ said one.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Turn Down the Heat A Bit

The Bible tells us that in the apocalyptic time:

“And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars: see that ye be not troubled…”  (Matthew 24:6)

The sports world seems to be in a time – – not nearly apocalyptic – – where it would be a good idea to think in terms of:

  • “And ye shall hear of trades and rumors of trades; see that ye not be troubled.”

You cannot pick up a sports section or click onto a sports news website these days without hearing about rumored trades or trades that ought to be made or players wanting/demanding trades.  So, let me talk about a couple specific situations this morning…

The NBA trade deadline is about 4 weeks away; teams will decide if they are going to add or subtract from their starting lineups very soon.  That situation alone creates multiple scenarios for trade speculations.  For example, in the Eastern Conference, there are 9 teams within 3 games of one another straddling the cutoff line for the playoffs.  Some will decide to make a playoff push and others will not – – but at this point, there is no way to tell which team will be in which situation.  So, the rumor potential is exponentially increased.  See that ye are not troubled; I just want to look at five situations:

  1. Several pieces have been written with the following thrust: The Pistons want to trade Blake Griffin, but no one seems to want him.  Griffin is only 31 years old; it only seems as though he and Fred Flintstone were teammates back in the day.  A report at CBSSports.com says that Griffin has played 626 minutes this season and has not  yet dunked.  He has had multiple knee surgeries and is averaging 12 points and 5 rebounds per game (in his 19 minutes per game).  And here is the kicker.  His contract calls for a salary in 2021 of $36.8M PLUS a player option for next year at $39M.  Yowza…!
  2. Rumors of a Kyle Lowry trade have appeared in plenty of places.  At 18 points per game and 7 assists per game, he looks to be something a lot of teams would want.  Except … he is 35 years old and will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season.  Teams interested in acquiring him should probably have an eye on a deep playoff run this year.
  3. Bleacher Report said that Kristaps Porzingis might be “available”.  On one hand a guy who is 7’3” and can reliably make 3-point shots represents a special talent.  On the other hand, with him parked out in the 3-point area much of the time, he spends about 30 minutes on the court per game and takes down only 2 offensive rebounds per game.  Really?  From a contract standpoint, he is signed through the end of the 2023/24 season.
  4. Does your team need a 3-point shooter?  JJ Redick is still in the NBA (Pelicans this year) and he is on an expiring contract.
  5. Does your team need a shot-blocker/rebounder?  JaVale McGee is still in the NBA (Cavaliers this year) and he is on an expiring contract too.

The rumors of trades regarding NFL QBs are rampant this year.  Certainly, the fact that 3 starting QBs from last year have already been traded to new teams for next year has fueled the speculation.  Added to that unusual degree of movement are “inside stories” that about a half-dozen other teams plan to release or move on from their starter in 2021.  As of this morning, the two QBs at the center of the rumor vortex are:

  1. Deshaun Watson
  2. Russell Wilson

The narrative is that both men are chagrined because their team has not sought sufficient input from them about the direction of the team and/or the personnel on the team and/or in the team’s front office.  Multiple reports say that Watson has told the team he will not play there again; a few reports say that Wilson “stormed out of a meeting” with the coaches prior to a game last year over the offensive game plan.  Let me assume for a minute that all the reports are accurate and that the players are indeed far beyond being miffed.

If the players want a trade and that is their supreme objective, it should be in the best interests of all sides to prevent this from becoming a latter-day version of the Gunfight at the OK Corral.  In a pitched battle where neither side chooses to blink, everyone is a loser; let me explain.

  • Both QBs are under contract to their current teams and both contracts reportedly have a “no trade clause” in them.  Therefore, no trade is possible without the player’s side waiving that provision of the contract.
  • Rumors say that Watson and Wilson both have “favored destinations” should they be traded.  Let me assume those reports are 100% accurate.
  • That ”no trade clause” could be weaponized if the team side of this contretemps gets all pissy.  The gentlemanly way out of the clause is for the team to arrange a trade to a favored destination and then the clause is waived, and the trade goes through.  But suppose the team gets itself into high dudgeon and tells the player that either the clause is waived unconditionally, or the team will not entertain offers for his services.  See you in training camp…

All that sort of “in your face” exchange of views is detrimental to both sides.  If the player holds out, his contract tolls – – meaning it used to have three more years to run before free agency but now it has four.  Declarations of “never suiting up for those guys again” by the player reduces his trade value; while he may not care if his current team gets maximum value for him, he ought to care that the current team perceives that they are getting “sufficient value” for him or there may not be the trade he nominally wants.

The only thing missing from the reports about Watson and the Texans and about Wilson and the Seahawks is for one side to begin their “rebuttal” to the latest proclamation by saying, “Oh, yeah…?”  Elementary school playground arguments have proceeded in a more orderly fashion than these two have.

The one outcome of either confrontation that I believe is off the table is that either QB retires and goes off to “take their life in a different direction”.  Both have made enough money already to live comfortably for the rest of their lives, but both would also be leaving a ton of money on the table by retiring – the schoolyard equivalent of taking their ball and going home.

  • Deshaun Watson earned $13.8M from 2017 to 2021.  When he signed his contract extension (through the end of the 2025 season) he got a signing bonus of $27M.  So, he has already banked just over $40M; what he would have to be sure of in any sort of “retirement scenario” is that the team would have little recourse to claw back that $27M signing bonus.
  • However, the “retirement scenario” also leaves $146M on the table.  To put it bluntly, that is a lot of cheese.  Moreover, that humongous tail to the contract that exists today presents the Texans with a huge disincentive to make any sort of trade for Watson.  My calculation of the dead cap hit should the Texans trade him tomorrow is $66M.  Even if I am off by 10% – – which I doubt – – that would be about one-third of the estimated salary cap for the Texans in 2021.
  • Russell Wilson has earned $90M from 2012 to 2021.  His current deal runs through the end of 2023 and he stands to earn another $70M in those remaining years.  His signing bonus for this deal was $65M so he would certainly not want to be exposed to a claw back there.
  • There is little motivation for the Seahawks to entertain a trade for Wilson now.  Like Deshaun Watson, the Seahawks would take a massive dead cap hit should they trade him anywhere; my calculation is a dead cap hit of $58M.

It seems obvious to me that the best way to arrive at a resolution acceptable to both sides in both disputes – – note I did not say optimal for both sides, I said acceptable – – is for the two sides to cooperate and not aggravate the other side.  Of course, that behavior does not make for “Breaking News” or for an ”Insider Report” so there is a benefit to outsiders in keeping the level of rancor from going to zero.  Too bad…

Finally, perhaps the two sides in these two player/team disputes should heed the words of poet/playwright, Oscar Wilde:

“Always forgive your enemies – nothing annoys them so much.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Nike Stuff Today …

Yesterday I pointed out two examples of cookie cutter coverage by the sports media in Spring Training stories and in coverage of golf through the prism of Tiger Woods.  There is another one to add today.  It has only been going on for a couple of weeks, but I think every aspect of the story has been covered – – except for the one that would resolve the issue.  I refer to the NBA All-Star Game.  Let me do a reset:

  • The All-Star Game was not in the NBA schedule at the beginning of the season; there was to be a short break but no game or festivities.
  • TV execs want the game; it draws ratings; they can sell ads.
  • Adam Silver announced there would be a game in Atlanta; the NBPA concurred.
  • The mayor of Atlanta asked people NOT come to her city to take part in the festivities and that public health restrictions on gatherings would be enforced.
  • The players have griped and said they do not want to be part of the game.
  • Adam Silver says, “The show must go on.”

Enough already…  Look, if the NBA stars think this is a bad idea, they have it in their power to make things right from their perspective.  Just do not show up for the game.  There is no need to talk about it; there is no need to issue statements; there is no need for any more debate.  To paraphrase Nancy Reagan:

  • Just stay home.

The league and the union have agreed to stage this game – – but as the players always love to remind folks during CBA negotiations, there is no game without the players.  So, here is their chance to stand up for what they think is the right thing to do.  It might  damage their “brand” with their fans if they pull a no-show, but anything that is worthwhile comes at a cost.

  • Memo to NBA All-Stars:  No need to paraphrase Nike here.  Just do it!

In the last NFL season, the NFC East was an embarrassment; in the upcoming MLB season, the NL East could be very interesting.

  • Atlanta is loaded with excellent young players; I enjoy watching Ronald Acuna as much as any other player in MLB now.  Their “greybeard” would be Freddie Freeman who is all of 31 years old.  The Braves won the division last year and certainly will be part of that chase again this year.
  • Miami shocked the world last year making the playoffs and then sweeping the Cubs in the wildcard round.  The Marlins’ pitching staff makes them a team to watch.
  • The New York Mets have a new owner who is spending money.  The Mets’ acquisition of Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco and James McCann should offset the fact that Noah Syndergaard will not be available until about July 4th.
  • Philly made a significant change in the front office hiring Dave Dombrowski who had been involved with pennant winning squads in the past.  Last year, the Phillies’ Achilles Heel was their bullpen; there have been changes made in the offseason; if the changes are for the better…
  • Washington under-achieved last year finishing tied for last in the division.  The Nats have an excellent starting rotation and two excellent young players in Juan Soto and Trea Turner.  The Nats are hardly going to be an “easy out” this year.

I mentioned the major acquisitions by the Mets and the new owner there.  While the three acquisitions I cited there are important ones, I believe that two other teams made even more significant roster additions in this offseason:

  1. St. Louis acquired Nolan Arenado from the Rockies PLUS they got the Rockies to pay part of Arenado’s salary in 2021 and 2022.  To get that sweet deal, the Cardinals gave up a young pitcher with a smattering of MLB experience (Austin Gomber) and gave up 4 other minor league prospects who have yet to progress beyond AA baseball.  A couple years ago, the Cardinals looked to the NL West and acquired Paul Goldschmidt to play first base; now they grab Arenado to play third base…
  2. San Diego acquired a lot of pitching in this offseason signing/acquiring Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell.  Additionally, they signed the highly sought-after infielder from Korea, Ha-seong Kim.  It is not as if the Padres were bereft of talent before this winter; remember they still have Manny Machado and the newly signed Fernando Tatis Jr. (14-years and $350M).  And with all that, the Padres are a distant second choice according to oddsmakers to win the NL West.  As of this morning, the Dodgers are minus-200 to win the NL West while the Padres are +210.

Finally, since I referred to Nike and its ad slogan above, let me close with a statement from Phil Knight – the major domo at Nike:

“We wanted Nike to be the world’s best sports and fitness company. Once you say that, you have a focus. You don’t end up making wing tips or sponsoring the next Rolling Stones world tour.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Tiger Woods Survives A Car Crash

The single car crash that put Tiger Woods under a surgeon’s knife and in a trauma unit has been reported everywhere.  We have been reminded of his accomplishments on the golf course, of his surgical history, of his previous “single car crash” and of his celebrity status.  I think we should take a moment here and remind ourselves to keep some degree of perspective on this event:

  • Everyone must be glad to know that Tiger Woods survived the crash.  Anyone who does not fall into that category is a monster.
  • Everyone must hope – and pray if you will – that he will recover and put his life back together in time.
  • No one should give a fig if he ever plays in another PGA golf tournament; if he can walk and play a round of golf with friends – even if he has to use a cart to get around the course – that is a plus.
  • The golf media who created his celebrity persona – and then feasted on it to provide that media with “stories” – needs to let this man recover and find the life he wants for himself without 24/7 inspection and intrusion from outside.

Here in Curmudgeon Central, I am very happy to know that Tiger Woods survived that crash.  The last thing on my mind now is whether he will “be back” to play in major golf tournaments this year, next year or on the Twelfth of Never.

In addition, I hope the golf media finds a way to do a bit of introspection here.  The amount of coverage for this single car crash with severe injuries and zero fatalities is only justified because of the hyper-attention focused on Tiger Woods for about the last 25 years.  If you doubt that, compare the coverage here of a single car crash and no fatalities to:

  1. The Humboldt Broncos’ bush crash a few years ago that killed 16 people.
  2. The Swift Current Broncos’ bus crash about 30 years ago that killed 4 people.
  3. The air crash that killed 45 members of the Marshall football team 50 years ago.
  4. The air crash that killed 14 members of the Wichita State football team about a month before the Marshall air crash.
  5. The boating accident that killed two Cleveland Indians’ pitchers about 30 years ago.

There is good news here.  That good news is that nowhere in this piece need I write the words, “Rest in peace, Tiger Woods”.  My hope is that the golf media can find a way to express their sorrow for his pain and to wish him a speedy and full recovery – – and then to find someone else to focus on.

Get well, Tiger Woods…

Switching gears … Spring Training is under way; and while everyone gets ready for the 2021 season to start and everyone hopes that MLB can be as successful at playing a full regular season as was the NFL at the end of 2020, we should be prepared for an avalanche of “cookie cutter stories” emanating from the training camps:

  • Grizzled vets have returned to Spring Training n the best shape of their lives hoping to hang on to a spot on the squad that heads North.
  • Young players are thrilled to be here; it has been their dream since they were 7-years old; they are just going to give it everything they have got every day and then leave it to the baseball gods.
  • Joe Flabeetz lost 15 pounds over the winter hoping to add some speed to his game.
  • Sam Glotz gained 15 pounds over the winter hoping to increase his stamina over the course of the long season.

And in that tsunami of tripe, there is an interesting story that has already been reported – – but did not catch on.  My suspicion is that it is too complicated – and potentially meaningful – to survive while the tsunami of tripe is going on.

Max Scherzer is more than a dominant pitcher who will have a bust in Cooperstown one of these days.  He thinks about baseball and how to make baseball better.  Recall that I said about a week ago that something MLB needed was for owners and players to find ways to improve the game for the fans; Max Scherzer has an idea that deserves consideration.

  • Scherzer wants to scrap the wildcard games and the division series games and substitute a round-robin tournament in both leagues.  The two survivors of the round-robin tournament would play in the World Series.

Scherzer asserts that a round-robin format would be a better way to identify the strongest teams in the playoffs instead of relying on the potential quirkiness of a three-game wild card series.  He is probably right; and for me, having the two “best teams” square off in the 7-game World Series is a goal worthy of pursuit.  The “problem” here is that a round-robin tournament would take more time than the current system allowing for travel days and the like.  However, Scherzer says that there are ways to “trim the regular season” and/or to start earlier in the year to accommodate those couple of “extra days”.

I am not saying this suggestion is a panacea for baseball.  However, it provides two things baseball needs desperately:

  1. New ideas to create more fan interest.
  2. Cooperation between players and owners on ways to make the games better.

Max Scherzer hits both of those points with his idea here; he should be lauded for it and folks should be scrambling to figure out what it might mean for scheduling and for the presentation of the playoffs to the public.  It will be interesting to see if the idea gains any traction…

Finally, since I began today with an item related to golf, let me close with this comment about golf from three-time Masters’ Champion, Jimmy Demaret:

“Golf and sex are about the only things you can enjoy without being good at them.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

An NFL Winter Of Discontent

If all you do is read headlines, you would conclude that at least 75% of the NFL teams are fed up with their QBs and want to make a change.  Indeed, there have been three major QB moves already this offseason with reports that – just maybe – franchise QBs in Houston and in Seattle and in Pittsburgh could be moved on or moved out.  Shakespeare had Richard III say in a soliloquy:

“Now is the winter of our discontent…”

You might just begin to think that this winter, NFL teams as a whole have become discontented with their QBs.  If you buy into that view of the NFL, you might want to credit or blame Tom Brady and the Bucs for creating this environment.  The Bucs just won the Super Bowl and that is the Prime Directive [Hat tip to Starfleet] for every owner, player, coach and GM involved with the NFL. Look at how the Bucs went from “after thoughts” to “champions” and you might conclude:

  • The Bucs had drafted well in terms of solid players for the previous 3 or 4 seasons – – except at QB where they had an erratic performer.
  • The Bucs added a proven QB to replace their erratic one on a short-term deal.
  • The Bucs also went out and built offensive weapons that fit their new proven QB and put them around him on short-term deals.
  • Abracadabra …  Also-rans are magically transformed into champions.

Various folks can modify or embellish that simplistic scenario, but the key elements remain.  And since the NFL is a copycat league, there are lots of owners and GMs and coaches who are saying to themselves, “Why can’t we do that?”  Moreover, there are some very talented QBs who look at that scenario from the perspective of Tom Brady as the QB and ask themselves, “Why hasn’t my team done that with me?”

Let all that fester for a while and you have the potential for an NFL winter of discontent with its QBs…

The headline this morning that caught my eye relative to this issue is that – supposedly – the Seahawks want 3 first round picks in exchange for Russell Wilson.  That comes on the heels of rumors that it would take an offer of 5 first round picks to get the Texans to listen to an offer for Deshaun Watson and the reality that Matthew Stafford commanded a price of 3 draft picks (not all in the first round) plus Jared Goff.

Last year, there were two major QB moves in the offseason – – Brady to the Bucs and Rivers to the Colts, but neither of those moves involved a trade.  And there is the essence of the difference for this offseason.  There will be free agent QBs looking for new venues for their services, but all that drama is overshadowed by the rumors of trades involving top shelf players and draft picks.

I have written before about the inflated value of NFL draft picks and I stand by that position.  In this NFL winter of discontent with QBs, the NFL Draft has 5 QB draft candidates that the scouts and reporters have made out to be – potentially – the next coming of John Unitas.  They are:

  1. Justin Fields
  2. Mac Jones
  3. Trey Lance
  4. Trevor Lawrence
  5. Zach Wilson

I said all these players are “potentially” the next coming of John Unitas – – and the key word there is “potentially”.  After Carson Wentz was traded, it struck me that the two players taken overall #1 and overall #2 in the 2016 Draft had just been jettisoned by the teams that took them so early in the Draft.  Wentz is the old greybeard here; he is all of 28 years old; I wondered how other “top-rated” QBs from 2016 had fared.

I found one other first round QB from the 2016 Draft; that was Paxton Lynch, and he is no longer with the Broncos who took him later in that first round; in fact, it has been a while since he was with the team.

That took me down a rabbit hole; I decided to find out how the first round QB picks from 2015 had done and then 2014 and then…  I had to go back a while to find a lot of productive picks as you can see here:

  • First round QBs 2015:  Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota.  Neither is still with the team that took them.
  • First round QBs 2014:  Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater.  None remain with the team that took them.  Bortles and Manziel were sub-standard; Bridgewater is good-not-great.
  • First round QBs 2013:  EJ Manuel.  No comment necessary…
  • First round QBs 2012:  Andrew Luck, RG3, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden.  Luck was excellent but retired early; all the others have moved on to other teams or to other professions.
  • First round QBs 2011:  Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder,  Newton had plenty of success; the others not so much.  None remain with the team that drafted them.
  • First round QBs 2010:  Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow.  No comment necessary …
  • First round QBs 2009:  Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman.  Stafford was just traded; the others were moved on by the teams that drafted them long ago.
  • First round QBs  2008:  Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco.  Bingo!!!  Finally, we have a first round QB who has been with the team that took him for a long time as the centerpiece of that team.  Kudos to the Falcons…

First round picks used on QBs appear to me to have been more like fool’s gold for that stretch of time.  There were 24 QBs taken in those drafts in the first round; I would say only 5 of them panned out:

  1. Flacco (Ravens) – – the did win a Super Bowl with him at QB…
  2. Luck (Colts) – – short career plagued by injury but played very well in Indy…
  3. Newton (Panthers) – – took the Panthers to a Super Bowl and was MVP…
  4. Ryan (Falcons) – – took the Falcons to a Super Bowl…
  5. Stafford (Lions) – – hey, he survived 12 years with the Lions…

You do not get into the Hall of Fame with a .208 batting average.  Moreover, at that rate, only 1 of the projected elite QBs in this year’s draft will be a long-term asset to the team that takes him.  Bonne chance…

The uncertainty of the NFL Draft marketplace reminds me of an observation by Al Capp the creator of Li’l Abner:

“Abstract art is a product of the untalented sold by the unprincipled to the utterly bewildered.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Secondary Football Stuff Today …

The American Football Coaches Association has petitioned the NCAA rules committee to consider a rule change.  I like the idea because I believe that it closes a loophole in the existing rules that is not exploited all the time, but it is exploited.  Here is the deal:

  • Whenever an official sees that a player is injured – especially if he is on the ground and cannot get up – the official will stop the clock to allow the player and/or training staff to get him off the field.
  • While that is not a “charged timeout”, it has the same effect as a timeout.  It stops the clock and it changes the tempo of the game; so, it has a similar effect to a “charged timeout”.
  • The injured player must remain out of the game for one play because of his needing attention for the injury.

I have long been amazed how frequently injuries take place late in games when the team that is behind needs to preserve time on the clock and how rarely those injuries seem to happen to the team in the lead.  I believe the reason for such a disparity in the injury rate is that the penalty for a team to have a player “take a dive” – so to speak – is minimal; he can come out for a play and then run back on the field and resume his position.  It is also curious how often injuries happen to defensive units once an offense decides to raise the tempo of the game.

Evidently, the members of the American Football Coaches Association have seen something similar and think the rules mavens should put a stop to it.  Here is their proposal:

  • An injured player for whom the clock is stopped so that he can receive assistance on the field should not be eligible to return to the field until there is a change of possession in the game.

I like that rule; I think it will go a long way to preventing injuries that are about as real as the ones suffered by pro ‘rasslers when the bad guy sneaks in a punch to the face of the good guy without the referee noticing it.  So, who makes up the NCAA Rules Committee for football?

  • There are 13 members.  Some are coaches; some are school  administrators; some are conference officials; some represent officiating interests.
  • There are quotas for the sort of expertise brought to the committee as well as quotas for representation for Division I, Division 1a, Division II and Division III.
  • For the current composition, the most recognizable name is the Chairman, David Shaw, who is the head coach at Stanford.

A year ago, the Football Rules Committee said that “flopping” was a problem and said that it would be a “point of emphasis” for officials in the 2020 season.  Frankly, officials had enough “new stuff” on their plates in 2020 given COVID-19 protocols and scheduling uncertainties to bring that issue to the top of anyone’s list of things to do.  Here is what David Shaw said back before any of the COVID shutdowns took place last Spring:

“There are a lot of teams in pretty much every conference now that are going up-tempo.  [Feigning injuries] is viewed as a way to stop it. For us as coaches, it’s a tactic that lacks integrity. We as coaches should not be having our guys do things that [lack] integrity.”

Coach Shaw also noted at the time that it was not practical to ask the officials to change their behavior when they see a player down on the field.  The officials bring a knowledge of the rules and a knowledge of officiating mechanics to the field; they are not trainers or doctors; it would be foolish to have them enforce any rule that required even a modicum of “medical judgment”.  Shaw said this was a problem that needed to be handled by coaches themselves.

There is a potential downside to this proposed rule.  I acknowledge its existence and still favor implementation of the rule.  Here is the downside:

  • A player who is genuinely injured may want to try to “tough it out” through a real injury simply not to be sidelined for a lengthy period – – or perhaps for the rest of a game.  In such a case, the player may take his injury to a more severe level because he felt the penalty associated with the rule is too severe.

I think the NCAA Football Rules Committee will have an interesting discussion on its agenda this year.  It had considered this sort of thing in the past and now the Coaches Association is recommending its adoption.

Moving on …  I want to talk for a moment about the Eagles’ trade of Carson Wentz.  A few weeks ago when the Rams traded Jared Goff, there were reports that the Rams would take a $22M “dead cap hit” in 2021 and that was the largest “dead cap hit” in the history of the NFL.  [Aside:  “Dead cap hit” means that amount of money counts against a team’s cap for a given season but that player will not be on the team.  In Goff’s case, he would be playing for another team – the Lions.]

I mention that because I have read reports that the Eagles will suffer a “dead cap hit” for Carson Wentz that is much larger.  One report has it at $34M; another calculation had it at $32M.  The NFL salary cap for 2021 is expected to be somewhere between $180M and $190M; if the cap hit for Carson Wentz is “only” $32M, that means he will consume about 18% of the Eagles’ salary cap while playing for the Colts.  And that leads me to conclude:

There is more to the impetus for this trade than simply the terrible year Carson Wentz put on tape from 2020.  If this were only a physical/mechanical/psychological issue, I would think the team would try to work that out over the course of one more season.  Something else was afoot inside the Eagles’ braintrust as they evaluated their future with Carson Wentz.

I will not pretend to know what the issues with “management” or “the locker room” might have been, but it just feels to me that there had to have been significant problems somewhere in the mix.  The Eagles now need to make a quick assessment:

  • Is Jalen Hurts “the guy”?.  He looked good in one game against the Saints and looked very ordinary in his other appearances.
  • After the performance in the final quarter of the final game, I think the Eagles recognize that Nate Sudfeld is not “the guy” and may not even rise to the level of “just a guy”.
  • I think the Eagles are in the QB market either for a free agent or for a QB in the draft.

Finally, here is an observation from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times recently:

“Lions RB Adrian Peterson has been ordered to pay $8.3 million to DeAngelo Vehicle Sales, LLC after defaulting on a $5.2 million loan in 2017.

“Now that’s what you call getting thrown for a loss.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Major Challenges Facing MLB

Yesterday, I said I wanted to enumerate some of the serious challenges that face MLB as a whole.  I believe the challenges here are more severe than many reporters in and around baseball seem to think.  I am not happy to take such a position because baseball is such a relaxing and enjoyable way to spend a summer evening.  So, let me begin this morning by addressing what seem to be two contradictory facts:

  1. Up until the pandemic year of 2020, gross revenues for MLB had never been higher.
  2. Baseball is not nearly as popular with the general public as it used to be.

Up until about the 1960s, the two most prized assignments in the sports departments for major newspapers in the US were the baseball beat and the horseracing beat.  Probably third on the list of desirability was the boxing beat.  Horseracing and boxing do not even merit having regular beat writers at most newspapers in 2021; major papers still have baseball beat writers – – but they are not necessarily the envy of everyone on the sports staff.  What was America’s national pastime is now a popular but not dominant sporting enterprise.

The reasons behind the record levels of revenue come from different aspects of society in 2021 as opposed to 1955:

  • The economy today is much larger than it was in the 1950s, so the simple fact is that there is more money around for MLB to harvest from its fans.
  • A corollary of that expanded economy is that many more people have much more discretionary income and some will opt to spend a portion of that on baseball games.
  • Television money for baseball telecast rights in 2021 is thousands of times larger than it was in the 1950s.
  • Transportation access to stadiums is now available to a much larger geographic footprint than it was in the 1950s leading to more fans putting their fannies in MLB stadium seats.

Those economic factors look good and it is fair to point out that so long as the economy remains strong, the economics of baseball should be hunky-dory.  Except, there is a fly in that ointment:

  • MLB fans “skew old”.  It is an aging fanbase; the average age of rabid baseball fans is significantly over 50 years old according to survey data.
  • People who are 50 and above tend to have stable incomes so they are in a position to spend their discretionary income on what they like; old people like baseball…
  • People who are 50 and above also tend to die at a higher rate than people in their 20s and 30s.  If you doubt that assertion, go ask the actuaries at any insurance company for verification.

MLB is losing its most avid fans to Father Time, but it is not replenishing them at the same rate with younger fans who will be around longer.  The fact that the average age of the serious baseball fans continues to increase while there has been a slow – but steady – decline in live attendance for the last 7-10 years should not be shocking.  Those two “trends” are closely related.  The fact of the robust gross revenue for MLB probably gave owners – – and players – – reason to dismiss to a large extent the issues related to the shrinking fanbase and the diminution of the stature of baseball in society.  Then an interesting juxtaposition arrived:

  1. The 2020 pandemic caused a huge revenue drop for all teams.  Let me do some small math here.  For a team that averages 25,000 fans per game and hosts 81 home games, where ticket prices average only $40 and each fan only spends $25 once in the stadium on food/drink/merchandise, the total revenue flow there is $131.6M.  For many teams, that revenue flow was reduced to a trickle in 2020.
  2. The current CBA expires at the end of the 2021 season and there will need to be negotiations that will ultimately arrive at a new one.

MLB and the MLBPA had a relationship in the 1970s and 80s that made the Hatfields and the McCoys look like BFFs.  Every time there was the opportunity for either a work stoppage or litigation, that is precisely what happened.  That era of rancor culminated in 1994 when the MLBPA chose to go on strike in mid-August after about 115 games had been played; the two sides could not come to an agreement in time for there to be a World Series that year and it took an injunctive ruling by now Supreme Court Justice Sonya Sotomayor in March 1995 to get the owners and the players to agree on a new CBA.  That 1994/95 experience should be instructive to owners and players now – – but it seems not to be.

Since 1995, there has been “labor peace” in baseball AND it has been in the same time period where gross revenues for baseball have increased most dramatically.  Those two facts are not related by direct cause and effect but the fact that for 25 years the storylines for baseball have been about players on the field as opposed to players off the field has focused fan interest on issues that can produce revenue for the sport.  Players like to say that no one goes to the park to see the owners; that is absolutely true – – as is the statement that no one goes to the park to see the players in street clothes outside the park not playing baseball.

The other aspect of the 1994/95 feud was that it took MLB several years before the “fans came back” and more than a couple of baseball historians believe that it was not until 1998 when Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire staged their “home run race” that fan interest in baseball “returned to normal”.  The pandemic-reduced 2020 season caused a significantly diminished interest in baseball all by itself; the game does not need a work stoppage in 2021 to magnify that reduction in interest.

The icing on this cake is not pretty.  Right about now, the owners and the union seem unable to agree on anything.  As I pointed out yesterday, the two sides could not bring themselves to be on the same conference call with Federal health officials to learn the latest info on COVID-19 and on effective protocols for baseball to use to have a season run its course with minimal health-related incidents.  The two sides chose to have separate calls with those officials.  How encouraging.

And those are just the short-term challenges for MLB and the MLBPA…  There are systemic problems too and those are going to be much more difficult to resolve.  The current pissing contest can fade into history – the same way middle school feuds do – but the systemic problems are going to remain until they are addressed.

One big problem is “analytics”.  I should say more precisely that it is the “over-reliance on analytics” that is the problem, and that over-reliance affects fans and players and owners.

  • Analytics has produced “The Shift”.  What “The Shift” has done is to reduce the number of base runners which reduces the “excitement” in the games.
  • Because it is more difficult to get a hit against “The Shift”, one adaptation by hitters is to alter their swing to change the “launch angle” thereby hitting the ball over the shift – – and hopefully over the fence too.  That produces more home runs, and it produces more strikeouts, but it does not produce more excitement.
  • Analytics has already had – and will almost assuredly continue to have – a negative effect on the pocketbooks of lots of players.  Recall when Albert Pujols got his 10-year mega-contract at age 31 or 32; that is not likely to happen anymore because analytics says that such deals are a waste of lots of money for the tail-end years of that kind of contract and that money can better be spent on players who will be productive in those years.  Long-range guaranteed contracts for players in their early/mid 30s are going the way of the dinosaur.  I cannot wait to hear the union cry “collusion” here…

So, in the current environment when the league and the union will not participate in the same conference call, what do you think of the chances that the two sides could even begin to have a meaningful discussion of issues such as the above.  But wait; there’s more:

  • The aging fanbase is dying off and is not being replenished with young-uns in part because the games are too long, and the pace of play is too slow for “millennials”.  When I was growing up, a game taking 2 hours and 30 minutes was commonplace; many were shorter than that.  Today, it is the 3-hour game that is commonplace; that is the length of an NFL game – – but there is a lot more excitement and action in an NFL game than there is in today’s MLB games.
  • Attempts to increase pace of play have been cosmetic at best and have been universally ineffective.  Waving the batter to first place in lieu of an intentional walk is cosmetic at best; making relief pitchers face at least 3 batters before they can be relieved saves an in-game change a few times a week.  Ho hum …
  • [Aside: Maybe the way to have fewer in-game pitching changes is to limit the number of pitchers a team can use in a 9-inning game?  Every in-game pitching change takes about 3 minutes to happen and for the fans it is dead time.]
  • Meanwhile, the time between innings has not been addressed; today it is always more than 2 minutes – – and sometimes it is 3 minutes.
  • And the Holy Grail of “getting the calls right” – – so-called instant replay – – produces plenty of dead time every game.  On every close play, managers and players stall for time until the manager can get a sign from his electronic replay wizards telling him if he should challenge the call or not.  When he chooses to do so, the mechanics used by the umpires to do the review is only slightly less cumbersome than working a UN resolution through the General Assembly and the Security Council.  Meanwhile, the fans in the stands and the fans at home are stuck watching a conference call.  Try to manage the excitement there; you would not want to induce any heart attacks…
  • MLB reduced the number of minor league teams around the country by about 25% for this year.  That will save owners some money which is a good thing at a time when revenue has dropped.  However, what does that do to further the objective of growing the game by getting kids interested in and fascinated by the game itself?

I do not know either Rob Manfred – – The Commish – – or Tony Clark – – the MLBPA Executive Director.  What seems apparent to me is that neither gentleman has much time nor use for the other one.  Maybe – I said MAYBE – that chilly relationship comes from the fact that The Commish used to be the chief labor negotiator for MLB and the MLBPA Exec Director has been part of the union doing negotiations with MLB for about the last 10 years.  Whatever is the source of their “lack of camaraderie”, it would be best for fans and for “The Game” if they found a way to get past it quickly.  Good luck with that one too…

Here are some fundamental truths about what faces MLB and the MLBPA:

  • The sport needs to make itself into a better TV entertainment product.  To achieve this end, there will need to be cooperation among the owners, players, umpires and “broadcast partners”.  If there is any momentum pulling those forces together now, it is opaque to me.  Notwithstanding the lack of cooperation here, this should be Priority Number One for owners and players because this is the source of the “big money” that flows into the game that drives profits for owners and contracts for players.
  • The sport needs to make itself a more “fan-friendly stadium event”.  Attracting new fans – who will bring “new money” with them to the park – is not going to happen easily if the product is a three-and-a-half-hour game with only 20 minutes of “action” that costs a couple of hundred dollars.  The same four forces needed to accomplish an improvement for TV need to be involved here too …
  • The sport needs added competitive balance.  Consider that the LA Dodgers have two players signed for 2021 – – David Price and Trevor Bauer – – who will make $60M this year between the two of them.  The Cleveland Indians and the Pittsburgh Pirates have a projected 26-man opening day roster that will make less than $50M in total.  The projected Dodgers’ opening day roster would make $250.2M this year.  There needs to be a way to bring a semblance of balance to the talent levels on the various teams.  I know; there have always been talent-rich and talent-poor teams, but this is getting ridiculous.  Why would a young fan in Pittsburgh or Cleveland develop a deep and abiding interest in the local team when it surely looks as if the team is not even trying to be competitive.  [Aside:  And yes, I also remember those spunky Tampa Bay Rays and how they win pennants once a decade or so and the Oakland A’s who “thrive” on Moneyball.  They make for nice feelgood stories, but they do not attract a rabid fanbase; in fact, they do not attract much of a fanbase at all.]

I am not suggesting – let alone predicting – that MLB is about to crash and burn without a new CBA that makes drastic changes to the game immediately.  There are still plenty of baseball fans – me included – to sustain the leagues.  I am suggesting, however, that baseball has lost its dominant role in the US sports cosmos already and that it could well continue its downward trajectory without changes.  MLB needs changes on the field and off the field and the changes need not happen drastically.  But there must be a commitment to making changes that intend to improve the game as a product.  Baseball needs better rules and better marketing.

  • The NFL markets the idea of “On any given Sunday …”
  • The NBA markets its star players.
  • MLB markets its history.

Well, if you are marketing your history and your fanbase is dying off without an equal influx of new fans, think about the logical consequences there.  Baseball owners and players should heed this entry in The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

History:  A cumulative account of the ways a bunch of dead people have screwed up in exactly the same ways we are screwing up right now.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Pitchers And Catchers Reporting …

I have no intention of going all meteorological on  you today, but here in the DC area we got some freezing rain/ice as precipitation about 3:00 AM last night; it is continuing in that mode as I write this and then some snow is forecast on top of that frozen mess for the rest of the day.  The sky is fully covered in clouds at about 1000 feet of elevation.  If ever a day oozed “dreariness”, it would be today in the DC area.

Nonetheless, there is a way for me to look over, under around and through this mess to see something much more pleasant and alluring.  No, I am not auditioning for the male lead in a remake of the silent movie, Little Mary Sunshine; I am simply acknowledging that this is the time of year when pitchers and catchers begin to report to Spring Training sites.  That means baseball is coming and baseball means this sort of dreary weather is on the wane.

That good news is compounded by the fact that Spring Training is going to happen “on time” this year.  It was not long ago that there was some doubt about the timing there; MLB wanted to delay the opening of Spring Training camps for about a month for “pandemic-related” reasons; the players’ union refused to accept that, and the legalese of the CBA resolved that head-butting exercise.  And in that last phrase, you can find the germ of future strife in this dimension.

Lest you think I am being dramatic, consider this one seemingly minor episode:

  • About two weeks ago, MLB scheduled a call with Federal officials to get the latest information and projections about COVID-19 and its spread and vaccine availability and reasonable protocols and – – you get the idea.
  • The players’ union was invited to participate in the call.
  • The union refused and set up a call of its own with Federal officials on the same subjects.

Recall that the current CBA expires after this season concludes and there needs to be cooperation to get to a new CBA.  Just reviewing the behaviors with regard to gathering COVID-19 related information from Federal officials, I would say these sides are behaving more like middle school kids involved in a feud than they are rational adults.  What baseball as a sport needs here is pragmatism – – and if there is any of that stuff lying around in the sport, it is surely keeping a low profile.

The so-called “elephant in the room” for MLB is that there are some systemic problems in the game that threaten the economic foundations of the game itself.  Those systemic problems may create bad news and rougher times for the billionaire owners and for the millionaire players.  Moreover, the best way to exacerbate those systemic problems is for the owners and the players to continue to turn marginally important issues into the latter-day equivalent of Custer’s Last Stand.

The 2021 season will be 162 games long – – assuming no massive return of COVID-19 between now and October.  When there are doubleheaders, the games will be 7 innings long and the “runner on second” to start extra innings will return for an encore.  [Aside:  For the record, I do not like either rule but their inclusion in the 2021 season is not sufficiently horrible that I would oppose them to the death.]  In addition, the DH will only be applicable for AL games or interleague games in AL parks.  MLB offered to keep the universal DH in place for 2021 in exchange for the union’s agreement to continue the expanded playoffs from last year.  When the union refused to agree to that, MLB took the universal DH off the table.  [Aside:  For the record, I hate the DH and I hate expanding the playoffs as MLB did last year.  Nonetheless, the absence of an ability to find a way to agree to compromise here is something I hate even more.]

According to an AP report:

“The agreement (on how to conduct the 2021 season) includes more sophisticated contact tracing for COVID-19 that includes the use of technology, and more league rules on behavior to comply with coronavirus protocols.”

Pardon me for a moment of pessimism here; but given the lack of collegiality that exists between the owners and players now, I cannot help but think that “more league rules on behavior to comply with coronavirus protocols” just might spark some more ill will between now and the end of October.

There is going to be a fundamental difference in the conduct of Spring Training this year.  In previous years, teams would have a training camp for its most likely major leaguers and a separate camp of its minor league prospects.  Occasionally, one of the hot minor league prospects would be brought into the major league camp for a game or two to “check him out” against major league competition.  This year, the major league training camps can be as large as 75 players meaning the distinctions between the major camp and the minor camp can be blurred significantly.

That blurring will mean that teams will need to carefully manage the playing time available to young players and to veterans hoping to make a team as a utility player of a bench presence.  While it can be argued that such vigilance was always important, it takes on greater significance this year because of what happened last year.  There was no minor league baseball season last year; teams did not get to see their prospects wax or wane in 2020; the “book” on most minor league prospects has its most recent entries written in invisible ink.

The good news is that pitchers and catchers are reporting; that is a harbinger of Spring; I can think about that as I watch more freezing rain fall from the sky this morning.  The bad news is that baseball is not in a good labor/management place today and the document that keeps them from going at it tooth and nail expires in about 9 months.

Tomorrow, I will try to explain what I mean by “systemic problems” that threaten baseball for fans, owners and players.  Until then, let me close with a description of another annual Spring event from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

Spring Break:  A week-long bacchanal that makes the reign of Caligula look like a scrapbooking party at the Red Hat Society.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Some Are Predicting A Disaster…

More than a handful of sports observers have commented on a looming potential disaster for women’s sports at the collegiate – – and possibly at the high school – – level(s).  Predicting dark days ahead for women’s sports is not something novel for 2021; what is different this time around is the identified source of the threat:

  • An Executive Order signed by President Biden on the day of his inauguration.

The Executive Order in question declares that “laws that prohibit sex discrimination … covers discrimination on the basis of gender identity and sexual orientation.”  One of the laws specifically cited in that Executive Order is Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972.  Title IX creates the relatively level economic playing field for women’s sports by denying institutions the ability to use any sort of “revenue proportionality” calculation to allot funds for women’s sports.

The Executive Order here intends to bar discrimination for the LGBTQ segment of society.  Let me say simply and clearly that I support any action that removes discrimination for every segment of society that is not performance based or scientifically impossible.  I have no problem with “gay marriage”; I have no problem with “same sex couples adopting children”; I would prefer not to have females use the same public restrooms that I do, but I will not go on any crusade to stop that from happening; I do have problems with any sorts of laws or regulations or even social customs that alienate individuals on the basis of their gender or their sexual preference(s).  Having said that, some folks believe that President Biden’s Executive Order could be disastrous for women’s sports.

Here’s how:

  • If “gender identity” is absolutely protected against discrimination, then a biological male can “gender identify as a female” – either permanently or merely conveniently – and be eligible to compete against females in athletic competitions.

Rather than make a universal statement here that would get me labeled as a chauvinist troglodyte, let me say that male athletes who would likely not be “championship material” competing against other elite male athletes could likely be dominant in competitions against female athletes.

  • The male who runs 10th in the Olympic 100-meter dash would be a force majeure in a sprint of the same distance with only female opponents.
  • The male sitting at the end of any NBA bench who gets to play only in epic blowout games would likely dominate the WNBA.
  • Top level females would be hard pressed to beat good-but-not-championship-caliber males in virtually all the field events at a track meet.

My point here is that – – if you extrapolate all of this to a logical and negative end point – – women’s sports could become dominated by males who “gender identify” as females.  And that situation might not be a good end point for women’s athletics.

Can it happen?  Well, evidently there are at least two of the States whose legislatures believe it can happen and those legislatures in Mississippi and North Dakota are in the process of passing bills requiring participation in sports there to be solely based on the gender assigned at birth.  So, that would seem to settle all of this; consider that as “problem solved”.  Except that would set up the situation where a State Law could conflict directly with a Presidential Executive Order.  Such conflicts get resolved in courts and in various legislative bodies – – and that is not the kind of “publicity” that women’s sports needs.

Obviously, the most malignant outcome here for women’s sports is some nightmarish twist wherein the Executive Order is deemed to have overreached AND that Title IX itself is somehow unconstitutional.    The gloom-and-doom prognosticators here would be proven right under that scenario; women’s sports would be gutted in that circumstance.  But the only way for that to happen is for this to go to court in the first place and setting up a potential conflict between an Executive Order and State Law is one way to do that.

I think the gloom-and-doomsayers are well ahead of themselves at this point.  Here is a link to the Executive Order in question in case you want to read it and make your own interpretation.

Moving on …  there is no real women’s equivalent to college football, so this is a total break in focus here.  Nick Saban was on Rich Eisen’s show recently and was asked about the possibility of expansion of the CFP.  Moreover, Saban was asked if he was in favor of such expansion.

Nick Saban has been around the block enough times not to answer that sort of question directly but still to offer an answer that touches on the central portion of the question.  What he did here was to express his concerns about the secondary effects of expanding the CFP:

“I just wonder sometimes if having a playoff and bowl games, and that was the unique thing about bowl games in college football, a lot of players got self-gratification for having good seasons.  They got to go to a bowl game, their families, the program, everything sort of got some positive self-gratification of what they were able to accomplish even though they weren’t national championship caliber or playoff caliber.  Now that’s all been diminished a bit. You just wonder, can playoff and bowl games co-exist, or should we just have more teams in the playoff? I’m not saying I’m for it or against it. I think that’s the question people need to answer.”

That statement brings home to me the glass half full versus half empty perception:

  • I see most of the “minor bowl games” as useless spectacles.
  • Nick Saban sees them as a reward for good-but-not-great teams.
  • Po – TAY – toe … Po – TAH – toe.

Finally, apropos of exactly nothing, here is a Tweet from Brad Dickson formerly of the Omaha World Herald:

“I asked my 4-year-old nephew what he plans to do for a living. He says, ‘I want to shave goats.’ Me: ‘Good. I was afraid you wanted to be a writer.’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Serious Business Today?

The Houston Texans released JJ Watt over the weekend.  Granted, Watt is entering that window of time when many – – if not most – – defensive linemen become measurably less effective.  Having said that, JJ Watt is also THE best defensive player in the history of the Houston Texans and JJ Watt had a more than respectable season in 2020 even if it was not comparable to those years when he was the Defensive Player of the Year in the NFL.  Reports say that Watt asked for his release and the Texans agreed to give that to him; assuming that is the case, here are three ways it may have happened:

  1. The Texans wanted to have JJ Watt end his relationship with the team in the best possible light – – and this exit ramp is certainly better than other potential ruptures.
  2. The Texans realized that releasing him would incur no “dead cap money” for 2021 and would save them his salary of $17.5M against their 2021 cap.
  3. The Texans did not think they could get anything of value for Watt on the trade market.

Of course, it could also be an admixture of any pair or all three of the above … but the bottom line is that the Houston Texans have now lost another high-quality player and have gotten bupkes in return.  Ad JJ Watt to this list:

  • Jedeveon Clowney
  • DeAndre Hopkins
  • Deshaun Watson – – potentially

I do not pretend to be able to read minds – – but given the actions of the Texans’ personnel wizards as evidenced by the above, I would not want to have the power to read those minds.  I prefer to reside is a far more rational region of space, and in a rational space, JJ Watt could have brought at least a draft pick or two back to the Texans as part of an exchange – – and the team needs draft picks given the way they have squandered them in past dealings.

Speculation about where Watt might sign immediately focused on the Steelers because his two younger brothers – – TJ Watt and Derek Watt – – are on the Steelers’ roster.  Since I do not read minds, I have no idea if that situation is appealing or repulsive to JJ Watt but if he is going to be “chasing a ring” with his next team, perhaps he might think about signing with the Packers – – as a native of the State of Wisconsin – – or the Ravens.  Wherever he signs, he will have absented himself from the drama and the vaudeville that is the Houston Texans’ organization; that change of pace for him would have to be a plus for him.

Dwight Perry “analyzed” the release of JJ Watt like this in the Seattle Times over the weekend:

“Those wild and crazy Houston Texans agreed to release star pass-rusher J.J. Watt — still under contract — instead of trying to get some return value in a trade.

“Veteran team watchers say you’d have to go back weeks — weeks — to find a Texans move this confounding.”

In another bit of NFL news that is not nearly as confounding or head-scratching as the release of JJ Watt, former NFL defensive back, “Pacman” Jones has been arrested yet again.  [Aside:  He has been arrested enough times that I suspect he can correct a police officer if the officer misstates the Miranda Warning.]  This time the arrest is for and the charge is “misdemeanor assault”.

When I read that as the charge, I figured this was no big deal; probably what Pacman had done was to get into a shouting match with someone where pushing and shoving ensued and then – – as a pro athlete – – Pacman asserted himself a bit more than his adversary and the police were called.  No big deal here; nothing to see here; move along…

Later in the report I read was the description that Pacman had punched and kicked another person in the head until that person was unconscious.  [Aside:  If that is “misdemeanor assault” in Cincinnati, I guess I do not want to know what “felonious assault” might entail.]

Pacman Jones was a Pro Bowl caliber DB in the NFL – – and was named All Pro one time – – during his career.  He was drafted by the Titans high in the first round of the NFL Draft notwithstanding the fact that he had “off-field issues” while he was in college.  Jones was indeed an on-field talent when he was available for his team; during his career, however, he was arrested and involved in “police matters” more than a handful of times and spent an entire season on suspension by the NFL for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy.

Jones’ explanation for the situation last weekend was that he was at a bar and was trying to get the DJ to play some song or songs when he heard a ruckus behind him and saw the club bouncer fighting with Jones’ younger brother.  At that point, Pacman went into action like Popeye the Sailor and according to Pacman, “I did what I needed to do.”  There are lawyers in Cincinnati drooling over the potential billable hours here…

Finally, having cited Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times above, let me close today with his assessment of potential Valentine’s Day gifts:

“Among the worst reported Valentine’s Day gifts, according to Dating.com, are wilted flowers, a pet hamster and an online workout subscription.

“Somehow not making the list: Jets season tickets.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………