Month: January 2025

             A friend called over the weekend and our discussion meandered to the subject of the NFL Playoffs that got underway on Saturday.  My friend’s position is that the Chiefs are a dynasty; I do not yet have them in such a lofty status – – although another Super Bowl victory this year would elevate them.  At some point, my friend asked what I thought the Chiefs lacked in terms of “dynastic stature”.

My answer had two parts:

1. I think the “Brady/Belichick Patriots were a dynasty because of the longevity of the excellence there spreading over about 15-18 seasons.  Even in years when the Pats were not playing in the Super Bowl, they were serious contenders to have been participants.  The Chiefs are getting close to being today what the Patriots were in pre-COVID years, but I think they need more “aging” in that status.
2. I think dynasties produce a wide variety of “truly great players” – – not sort of great ones but really great ones – – and again the Chiefs are close but not quite there.

My friend accepted Part 1 but pushed back on Part 2.  So, I explained my feeling that the Chiefs roster of late had not produced a wide variety of great players, that did not detract from the greatness of several individual players – – Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones to be specific.  I believe that all three of those players will be in the Hall of Fame sometime in the future but as a way to draw a comparison, I suggested a look back at the Steelers’ dynasty in the 1970s.

• QB = Terry Bradshaw – – Hall of Fame
• RB = Franco Harris – – Hall of Fame
• WR = Lynn Swann and John Stallworth – – both in the Hall of Fame
• OL = Mike Webster – – Hall of Fame
• DL = Joe Greene – – Hall of Fame [Aside:  The rest of the “Steel Curtain” front four were awfully close to Hall of Fame caliber too.]
• LB = Jack Ham and Jack Lambert – – both in the Hall of Fame
• DB = Mel Blount and Donnie Shell – – both in the Hall of Fame

The only position group not represented here is Tight End; I could not recall who was a tight end for the Steelers in the 1970s but I used Google to check and the only Steelers’ tight end from that era that I can remember even when presented with a list was Bennie Cunningham who was a good player but not a Hall of Fame caliber player.

The thing about the 10 players cited above, is that they came from every position group on the team; there were no significant weaknesses on those Steelers’ teams.  As of now, I do not see the same spread of greatness over the rosters of the Chiefs over the past several seasons.  Now, if someone wanted to compare the Steelers of the 1970s to the Bill Walsh/George Siefert Niners teams of the 80s and early 90s, I think that would be an interesting discussion.

I’ll close today with some observations by Chuck Noll – – the guy who coached those Steelers in the 1970s:

“Everyone’s job is important, but no one is indispensable.”

And …

“Before you can win a game, you have to not lose it.”

And …

“The critics are always right. The only way you shut them up is by winning.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

This is the time of the year when the football season – – which began in August with Georgia Tech beating Florida St. in Dublin, Ireland – – sheds all the baggage and has the best teams stepping forward for action.  In terms of quantity and quality together, this is the best football weekend of the season.  Counting last night’s CFP game, in a 96-hour timespan, there schedule holds two excellent college football matchups, and 6 NFL playoff games scheduled such that no two games overlap in time – – pending the need to reschedule the game in LA due to wildfires.  It is an orgy of football.

Ergo this is not merely a Football Friday; consider this an orgiastic version of Football Friday.  Don’t just let the good times roll; kick it up a notch [Hat tip to Emeril Lagasse] and revel in the pure football hedonism this weekend represents.

Having said that, I must begin this week on a down note.  There was no “Betting Bundle” last week but I did propose a four-legged Money Line Parlay then.  That wager bit the dust when the Atlanta Falcons lost by giving up 44 points to the Carolina Panthers.  But enough negativity …

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Over the last several years of conference realignments, there have been some big geographic swings as the major conferences have acquired larger and larger footprints.  Every time I see Stanford or Cal playing in an Atlantic Coast Conference game a shiver goes down my spine.  Well, it appears as if that contagion has spread to the minor collegiate conferences now.  Earlier this week came the announcement that the Huskies of Northern Illinois will not be playing MAC football beyond next season; instead, Northern Illinois will join the Mountain West Conference for football competition.

Ever since Michigan upset Ohio St. right after Thanksgiving, there have been reports saying that there is unhappiness among the supporters of Buckeyes’ football about Ryan Day as the leader of the program.  Ryan Day’s record at Ohio St. is 68-10; yes, Ohio St. always schedules a couple of cupcake games, but in his 6 years on the job in Columbus, Ryan Day has beaten 87% of the opponents presented to him and his team.  Yes, he has lost 4 consecutive games to Michigan; no, it is unreasonable to label him as “sufficiently deficient” and thereby justify firing him.

I know this will not happen, but I can still wish for it to happen.  As of this moment, I am rooting for Ohio St. to win the CFP and be crowned as the National Champion.  And when they hand the trophy to Ryan Day and put a microphone in front of him, I would love for him to tell everyone in Columbus to take a hike because he has had enough of their negativity, and he is going to go and find a coaching job elsewhere.  If done in a quiet and measured tone of voice, he need not amplify his message with an extended middle finger in the face of those who think he is less than satisfactory.

Before we get to the games this weekend, I want to comment on two events related to the college football coaches’ game of musical chairs that takes place every December/January.  I know that Bill Belichick going to UNC is the biggest element in that saga, but there are two other events that have coaches “going home”:

• Scott Frost is returning to UCF next year. He was the coach there in 2016 and 2017; he went to bowl games both years and UCF posted a 13-0 record in 2017.  Frost played QB for Nebraska, and that undefeated season at UCF got him the job leading the Cornhuskers starting in 2018.  That simply did not work out at all; he was fired in the middle of his fifth season at Nebraska and had a record of 16-31 there.  Now he is going back to Orlando to resume his coaching career at UCF.  He will find one big difference when he gets there.  Back in 2016 and 2017, UCF played against American Athletic Conference opponents; in 2025, UCF will play against Big-12 Conference opponents.
• Rich Rodriguez is returning to West Virginia; those country roads have taken him home.  Rodriguez coached the Mountaineers for 7 years about 20 years ago posting a cumulative record of 61-26 there and winning the Big East Conference championship 4 times.  He left West Virginia to take the job at Michigan and his departure sparked lawsuits and rancor; his three years at Michigan were unproductive with an overall record of 15-22.  After that he spent 6 years at Arizona with middling success.  Then after a 5-year hiatus, he went to Division 1-AA Jax St. where his teams went 27-10 and won their conference twice.  As in Scott Frost’s case, Rodriguez will not find a “Big East Schedule” in front of him in 2025; West Virginia is now in the Big 12.

And, as luck would have it, UCF and West Virginia will play each other in Orlando next year.  It’s like a Hollywood screenplay…

There was one situation where a coach was not fired when I expected him to be fired.  Trent Dilfer has been the coach at UAB for two seasons; the cumulative record there is 7-17 and in 2024 there were some truly ugly losses such as:

• La-Monroe 32 UAB 6
• Navy 41 UAB 18
• Tulane 71 UAB 20
• Army 44 UAB 10
• Memphis 53 UAB 18

The decision at UAB is to run it back at least one more time with Trent Dilfer on the sidelines.  I suspect the results next year will have to be a tad more competitive when the team loses…

 

CFP Games

 

            Last night, Notre Dame advanced to the CFP Final Game beating Penn St. 27-24.  A few observations:

• For about the first 25 minutes, Penn St. was in charge.  For about the next 25 minutes, Notre Dame was in charge.  The game was tied 10-10 going into the 4^th quarter.
• Notre Dame was clearly the better team in the 4^th quarter.
• If you like Micah Parsons as an edge rusher in the NFL, you ought to like Penn St. DE, Abdul Carter too.
• Some commentators have suggested that the Lions’ QB, Drew Allar, should reconsider his decision to come back to college football next year; he should declare for the Draft in a thin QB class for 2025.  I think that would be a huge mistake for Allar; his accuracy, his arm strength and his “decision-making” last night would probably have made him a third-day pick come April.
• The Notre Dame defense has no “stars”, but it does have about 15 players who are all well above average in terms of competence – – and they play team defense very well.

Ohio St. – 6 vs Texas (50.5):  I think the oddsmakers have this game pegged wrong; I think this game will be an offensive display.  Yes, I know that both defenses are ranked in the Top 3 in Total Defense this year, but I also know that Quinn Ewers and Will Howard are two QBs who are both on a roll.  I think the difference in the game will be Ohio St. freshman WR, Jeremiah Smith who is already a certified monster on the field.  I like Ohio St. to win and cover AND I like the game to go OVER – – and – – I’ll put those two bets in on a same-game parlay; put all of that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Dan Orlovsky was one of the color analysts for the Steelers/Bengals game last week.  While I do not mind him at all in his “studio persona”, he was maximally annoying on that broadcast.  He would not/did not ever shut up and he raved about plays and happenings in the game that were pretty pedestrian.  ESPN should never have allowed that to go on for a full game; ESPN must not allow that to happen in any future games.  I am a full-fledged supporter of the First Amendment guaranteeing free speech – – but I think Orlovsky’s performance was a violation of that right.

Sam Darnold has clearly had the best year of his football life this season.  Darnold was the overall #3 draft pick (by the Jets) in 2018.  Going into this season, his record as a starter was a less-than-stellar 21-35-0; in 2024, his record as a starter is 14-3-0.  So, is that an indication of his natural talent maturing and emerging – – or is it a mirage?

In the last offseason, Darnold signed a 1-year contract for a guaranteed $8.75M with the Vikes.  He will be an unrestricted free agent on March 10 when the NFL’s open signing period begins – – unless the Vikes sign him before then or unless they put a franchise tag on him.  The fact that the Vikes’ coaches have that period of “exclusivity” to deal with Darnold may provide a good answer to the question above.  If they think this was a mirage, they will probably let him walk without a serious attempt to sign him and cast their lot with JJ McCarthy who they drafted in the first round last April.  If they think 2024 was a serious indication of Darnold becoming a certified franchise QB, that changes things a lot …

Do not be too hasty in judging Darnold based on his first several years in the NFL.  Please recall Jim Plunkett who started out on a very mediocre career trajectory but who was a “late-bloomer” and managed to get two Super Bowl rings and one Super Bowl MVP award once “the blossom” had emerged.

The Titans fired their GM, Ran Carthon this week; he had been the Titans’ GM since January 2023.  Here is part of the statement from Titans’ owner Amy Adams Strunk regarding that decision:

“I’ve loved the time I’ve spent with Ran. He’s a talented football mind, a great man, and friend to everyone along his path.

“It’s impossible to ignore that our football team hasn’t improved over the past two years. I am deeply disappointed in our poor win-loss record during this period, of course, but my decision also speaks to my concern about our long-term future should we stay the course.

“I love this team more than you can imagine. To our fans: we know this level of performance isn’t acceptable. We’re humbled by your support as we continue to work towards building the team you expect and deserve.”

She made the “firing announcement” about her.  Really?  That got me to thinking about her other actions as a team owner and then it hit me:

• Last year – – when Ran Carthon and then head coach Mike Vrabel could not play in the same playpen – – she fired Vrabel and kept Carthon.
• Now, she shifts blame to the Front Office.
• Meanwhile, she asserts her love for the team and her humility.

It seems to me that with Danny Boy Snyder out of the picture, there needs to be some consensus built around who is now the worst NFL owner.  While he was among those in the inner circle of the NFL, the trophy was retired permanently in the Washington DC area.  Not so in 2025 …  So here are my four candidates for worst owner currently in the NFL in alphabetical order:

1. Mark Davis (Raiders):  If he has made a good hiring decision in the last decade, it surely does not come to mind quickly.
2. Jimmy Haslett (Browns):  The trade for Deshaun Watson and then the contract handed to Watson guarantee Haslett a spot on this list.
3. Woody Johnson (Jets):  Since 2000, he has had 7 head coaches and none of them finished with a winning record for the Jets; since 2000 he has had 6 different GMs providing rosters to those 7 head coaches who left with losing records.
4. Amy Adams Strunk:  See above …

If I were to create a “Dishonorable Mention” list to accompany the list above, I would include the McCaskeys (Bears), Jim Irsay (Colts) and David Tepper (Panthers).

Looking at the seven owners on my combined list there, notice that two of the seven are in the AFC South Division.  That division seems always to be an afterthought when it comes to fan focus outside the local areas of the individual teams.  Moreover, it has been a while since a significant playoff threat has emerged from that division; maybe you have to go all the way back to the days of Peyton Manning with the Colts to encounter such a situation.

The AFC South has always seemed to me to be the NFL’s version of the “junk drawer” that we have in our kitchen.  If something does not “fit” with anything else logically, then stick it in the “junk drawer” and we can find it there if we ever go looking for it.  [Aside:  My long-suffering wife objects to my “junk drawer” label; she prefers to call it “The Drawer of Many Things.”  Po-TAY-toe … Po-TAH-toe.]

Let me break down the AFC South here for a moment:

• Colts:  In what delusional state must one reside to consider Indianapolis as part of “The South”?
• Jags:  At least, they are geographically in “The South” but they are also irrelevant more seasons than not.
• Titans:  For a team that has made the playoffs 10 times in 25 seasons, it has an amazingly small national following.
• Texans:  An expansion team that has made the playoffs 8 times but never made it to the Conference Championship Game.  Meh!

Here are a few comments on games from last week – – many of which were meaningless:

Commanders 23  Cowboys 19:  Jayden Daniels got the second half off but backup QB, Marcus Mariota led a late fourth quarter drive to produce the winning TD putting the Commanders in the playoffs as the 6^th seed in the NFC.

Broncos 39  Chiefs Junior Varsity 0:  Ask a random sample of people on the street to name 3 players on the Chiefs’ roster this year and make a list.  Any name on that list did not appear in this game.   Some folks assert that the Chiefs “threw the game” to assure that the red-hot Bengals could not be in the playoffs.

“Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men?

“The Shadow knows…”

Panthers 44  Falcons 38:  The Falcons needed to win this and to have the Bucs lose.  Neither event happened.

Bucs 29  Saints 19:  The Bucs did what they needed to do to win the division and make the playoffs for the fourth year in a row.

Seahawks 30 Rams Junior Varsity 25:  The Rams had clinched a playoff spot, so they rested Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams.  However, no conspiracy theories have emerged here…

Bears 24  Packers 22:  The important outcome from this game is that Packers WR, Christian Watson tore his ACL and is out for the balance of the playoffs.  QB Jordan Love injured his elbow also, but he is expected to play this week.

Pats 23  Bills 16:  Two weeks ago, the Giants pulled off an upset that relinquished the overall #1 pick in the Draft to the Pats; last week, the Pats emulated that generosity with this win handing the overall #1 pick in April to the Titans.

 

Games This Week:

 

Just for the record, there are no Dog-Breath Games on the card this week.

 

(Sat. 4:30PM ET) Chargers – 2 at Texans (42.5) :  The Chargers lead the NFL in scoring defense; if “defense wins championships”, the results of these playoffs would seem to be a foregone conclusion.  The Texans won their division, but they have not looked nearly as good this year as they did last year.  Injuries to Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs tanked the offense; the Texans played teams with winning records six times this year and won only one of those encounters.  The Chargers have a history of coughing up a hairball at a critical time in do-or-die games; Jim Harbaugh is there to change that history – – if the football gods will permit.  Justin Herbert has never won a playoff game; that is another historical element that could be changed here – – if the football gods will permit.  I like the Chargers to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

(Sat. 8:00PM ET) Steelers at Ravens – 10.5 (43.5):  When you go looking for this game on TV, it will be streaming on Amazon Prime Video even though it is not a Thursday Night game.  The Steelers are in a tailspin; they have not looked good for the last month; in their last 4 games (all losses), the Steelers have averaged just a smidgen over 14 points per game.  Meanwhile, the Ravens have been on a tear late in the season.  However, it must be noted that Lamar Jackson has been in 6 playoff game situations and has only won twice.  Basically, this is a third meeting between these AFC North teams, and they have split the first two.  I have a personal policy which requires that I refrain from selections in NFL games with double-digit spreads.  I will just sit back and watch these two teams slug it out on each other.

 

(Sun. 1:00PM ET) Broncos at Bills – 8.5 (47):  The weather forecast for Sunday in Buffalo is for “snow showers” (whatever that means in Buffalo NY) and temps around freezing.  Often teams traveling to Buffalo in December/January need to play in conditions that are unfamiliar; in this case, the Broncos have an idea what snow and cold weather are all about.  The Bills were 8-0 at home this year; the Broncos were 4-5 on the road.  This is the first NFL playoff game for Bo Nix, but it is hardly a novelty for Josh Allen.  I think the fundamental challenge in this game is for the Broncos’ defense; can they keep the game from turning into a track meet?  The oddsmakers think it can according to that Total Line.  I think the Bills are going to win the game, but I like the Broncos’ defense to keep it close and keep it near that modest Total Line; so, give me the Broncos plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

(Sun. 4:30PM ET) Packers at Eagles – 4.5 (45):  This is a rematch from the first game of this year’s NFL season when these two teams met in Sao Paulo, Brazil; the Eagles won that game 34-29.  The Packers got to the playoffs this year despite losing 5 of their 6 division games.  The absence of Christian Watson will affect the Packers’ aerial game, and I assume that Jordan Love sat out the second half of last week’s game simply as a precaution and not due to a serious elbow injury.  The Eagles will have Jalen Hurts back at QB after he spent two weeks in the concussion protocol; has any “rust” accumulated during that absence?  I think this will be a close game; I do not think there will be anywhere near the 63 points scored by these two teams against each other as back in September; I’ll take the Packers plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

(Sun. 8:00PM ET) Commanders at Bucs – 3 (50):  This is the Game of the Week.  The Commanders averaged 27 points per game this year; the Bucs averaged 28 points per game this year.  The Commanders will score points; the question mark for them is the defense.  The Bucs beat the Lions and the Eagles this year; the Bucs also lost to the Cowboys and the Falcons (twice) this year.  Assuming the “good Bucs” show up here, I think this game will challenge the scoreboard operator to keep up; so, I’ll take the game to go OVER, and I’ll take the Commanders plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

(Mon. 8 :00PM ET) Vikes – 1 at Rams (48):  Sam Darnold had a bad outing last week against the Lions; there is no way to sugarcoat that fact.  The question here is:

• Was that a one-off or was that too big a moment for him?

We know what to expect from the Rams and we pretty much know what to expect from the Vikes’ pressure defense.  What is up in the air here is the Vikes’ offense and how well Sam Darnold can make it operate.  I like this game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:

1. Ohio St. – 6 over Texas
2. Ohio St./Texas OVER 50.5
3. Same Game Parlay of those two bets above to win $264.
4. Chargers – 2 over Texans
5. Broncos + 8.5 against Bills
6. Packers + 4.5 against Eagles
7. Commanders +3 against Bucs
8. Commanders/Bucs OVER 50
9. Vikes/Rams OVER 48

With a nine-element “Betting Bundle”, I don’t think I need any Money Line Parlays this week…

Finally, words of wisdom from Vince Lombardi:

“If you can accept losing, you can’t win.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………
 

 

Yesterday, I commented on two “one and done” NFL coaches.  After I posted that rant, I got to thinking about how lots of coaches are less than outstanding in their first year on the job and I wondered how some coaches who turned out to be top-shelf NFL coaches after a while would have fared in today’s environment of “instant success” or “see ya later”.  The results are not pretty:

• Bill Belichick:  First year in Cleveland he was 6-10.  First year in New England he was 5-11.  However, his overall record turned out to be 302-165 with 7 Super Bowl appearances and 5 Super Bowl victories.
• Pete Carroll:  First year in Seattle he was 7-9 which was one game worse than the Seahawks had been the year before.  However, he “hung on” in Seattle for 14 seasons posting a 137-89-1 record there with 2 Super Bowl appearances and 1 Super Bowl victory.
• Tom Landry:  His Cowboys were an expansion team, so his record for the first four years in Dallas was a meager 13-38-3.  He was the head coach for the Cowboys for 29 seasons with an overall record of 250-162-6.  His teams went to the Super Bowl or the NFL Championship Game 7 times and won the Super Bowl twice.
• Chuck Noll:  His Steelers went 1-13 in his first year in Pittsburgh; they posted losing records in Noll’s first three seasons there.  He proceeded to stay with the Steelers for 23 seasons winning 4 Super Bowl Games along the way and posting a career record of 193-148-1.
• Bill Parcels:  The Giants were 3-12-1 in his first year at the helm.  Nevertheless, he had the chance to hang onto the job and lasted 8 years with the Giants and then 11 more seasons with other teams.  His overall record was 172-130-1 and he won 1 Super Bowl Game.
• Andy Reid:  The Eagles were 5-11 in his first year in Philly; that was 1999 and Reid has been coaching in the NFL continuously since then.  His career record is 273-147-1 and his teams have been to the Super Bowl 5 times and won the Super Bowl 3 times.
• Bill Walsh:  His first year with the Niners produced a record of 2-14, but he survived to stay with the team for 10 years earning a career record of 92-59-1.  His teams also won 3 Super Bowl Games along the way.

I think you get the idea here.  Even men who proved to be outstanding head coaches in the NFL stumbled in their first year or so on the job.  In the seven cases listed here, team owners were rewarded for patience in staying with these coaches for more than a single season of disappointment.  Four of the coaches above are in the Hall of Fame now; the other three are still “active” in the coaching profession; Carroll is seeking a new job in this hiring cycle; Belichick is at UNC and Reid is still wearing that humongous red coat on the Chiefs’ sideline this year.  It would not surprise me in the least to see those three “still active” head coaches join the other four in the Hall of Fame one of these days.

Moving on …  I want to say something about football coaches at a lower level of the game here.  A few years ago, Deion Sanders came out of nowhere to take the head coaching job as Jackson St.  He just happened to bring his two sons and Travis Hunter along with him to Jackson St. and they quickly dominated the SWAC.  Sanders moved on to Colorado and has done quite well there to the point that he is now rumored to be a potential NFL head coach sometime soon.

That success seems to have opened a door for other NFL alumni to take jobs at small HBCUs as the head football coach.  Eddie George was the first person to follow the “Deion Sanders Route” to the head coaching ranks when he took over the Tennessee St. program and led the team to the Division 1-AA championship tournament this season.

Now, former NFL WR, DeSean Jackson has been hired to run the football program as Delaware St.  The Hornets are members of the MEAC; it is an HBCU institution.  Football has not been overly successful for Delaware St. over the years, the school’s cumulative record is 370-458-11.  Jackson is not walking into a long tradition of winning football at Delaware St.; the last winning record for a season I can find is back in 2007.  I hope he gets at least a few years to try to turn things around.

Recently, Michael Vick was hired to take over the football program at Norfolk St.  The Spartans also play in the MEAC and Norfolk St. is also an HBCU.  The similarities extend to the fact that Norfolk St. is also not a perennial powerhouse in that league and there is no real “winning tradition” there.

Vick and Jackson were teammates with the Eagles; now they will be rivals trying to put unsuccessful football programs on a positive vector heading.  Vick would seem to have one advantage over Jackson simply based on geography.  Michael Vick is from Newport News, VA which is right next door to Norfolk VA in the Tidewater region of the state.  Vick went to high school there and is well known in local sports circles having gone to Va Tech about 25 years ago.  Jackson, on the other hand, is from Los Angeles and went to school at Long Beach St in California.  In terms of recruiting “locally” it would appear that Vick has an edge – – but they play the games on the field and not on paper.

Finally, with regard to the rewards for patience in new coaching hires, let me close with this from Julius Caesar”

“It is easier to find men who will volunteer to die, than to find those who are willing to endure pain with patience.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The phrase “one and done” probably originated in the world of college basketball referring to a player who would go to college knowing that he would only be there for one year.  His intent was to play in the NBA, but he had to wait for one year to be eligible for the NBA Draft because of a provision of the CBA that governs how the league operates.  This year, it seems that “one and done” might have a more sinister meaning when it comes to the NFL.  In this week where NFL coaches and coaching staffs are in medias res, we have a few “one and done” situations:

• Jerod Mayo is “one and done” as the head coach of the Pats.  The team finished the year with a 4-13-0 record and by winning the last game of the season handed the overall #1 pick in the Draft to the Titans.  Mayo did not take over a team full of latent talent; the Pats were also 4-13-0 in the 2023 season.  I cannot help thinking that Mayo was destined to fail in this job – – maybe not in one year but in the end – – because the fans and the Pats’ brass are probably spoiled by the fading memories of the Pats’ dynasty in the Brady/Belichick regime.  Jerod Mayo was identified with those joyous days but the reality is that no one was going to bring them back to Foxboro in short order because the roster is flawed.
• Antonio Pierce is “one and done” as the head coach of the Raiders.  I know; technically he is “one-and-a-half and done” in that job because he was the team’s interim head coach for 9 games in 2023.  Nevertheless, the Raiders also clocked in with a record of 4-13-0 this year and that led to Pierce’s dismissal.  Another similarity between Pierce’s situation and Mayo’s plight in New England is that the Raiders’ roster was not primed for success in 2024.  I think there is a more fundamental “issue” at work with the Raiders.  Like the Pats, there are memories of a glorious past, but those euphoric days predated the current team leadership.  Al Davis was a “scratchy” curmudgeon – – but Al Davis knew football.  Mark Davis seems like a much more affable and cooperative person – – but I don’t think he knows half of what his father knew about football.
• If Antonio Pierce “deserved” to be let go, then the Raiders’ GM, Tom Telesco, should have been hand-in-hand with Pierce on the way out the door.  He came into the Raiders organization last January and in his year at the helm, the team “regressed” from 8-9-0 in 2023 to 4-13-0 in 2024.  If Telesco is entitled to a longer leash than one season, why is the standard different for Pierce?
• Nick Sorenson is “one and done” as the Defensive Coordinator for the Niners.  The expectations for 2024 were lofty in the Bay Area and the team finished 6-11-0.  Kyle Shanahan has a “genius label” attached to him – – deservedly or undeservedly – – so he is not vulnerable to separation for one bad year.  But it was Shanahan who fired Steve Wilks as Defensive Coordinator last January presenting Shanahan with the opportunity to fill that vacancy with Sorenson.  Actually, I think there might be a more positive motive behind this firing decision.  Perhaps the Niners see an opportunity to “upgrade” at the Defensive Coordinator position by keeping Sorenson on the staff and hiring Robert Saleh for a second stint as the Niners’ Defensive coordinator.  Remember, Saleh was sufficiently successful in that role about 5 years ago that he was a hot head coaching prospect in an offseason leading to his getting the top job with the Jets.  Just a thought…

This is the time of the year when fans begin to imagine positive changes for their favorite NFL franchises.  Often, there is far too much “imagination” in their thinking and not enough “reality” but hope springs eternal.  One source of fans’ “irrational exuberance” [Hat tip to Alan Greenspan] is the annual positioning by players who let it be known that they would like a new NFL employer.  If/when that player is Joe Flabeetz, no one particularly cares; when that player is one with Pro Bowl achievements on the résumé, fans get energized.  So, who might be available for moving from one place to another this year – – ignoring for a moment the likely impending drama involving Aaron Rodgers:

• Maxx Crosby has indicated that he is not particularly interested in hanging around while the Raiders go through a rebuilding process.  Reports of his willingness to play elsewhere were still echoing around the football world when fans in Cincy had him signed, sealed and delivered to the Bengals.  And the Bengals’ defense was the unit that needed upgrading as of this season, so the move makes sense – – in a simple and transactional world.  Looking at his situation, there is no team in the NFL that has two defensive ends better than Maxx Crosby; he would be an upgrade for 31 other franchises; if he is really going to be sent elsewhere, there are plenty of teams other than the Bengals who might “buy a lottery ticket” so to speak.
• Tyreek Hill has made it known that he would like to be traded from the Dolphins and also posted a photoshopped picture of his face on Antonio Brown’s body on a social media site.  There is no doubt that Hill – – like Crosby – – can upgrade the WR position for most every NFL team; but unlike Crosby, Hill brings enough baggage with him that his nickname ought to be Samsonite.  [Aside:  Posting a picture of himself “aligned with” Antonio Brown is not a good way to push said baggage into the background.]  Hill left the Chiefs amidst drama there; the Dolphins gave him a contract worth $120M and stood by him during a period of “involvement with law enforcement”; what would lead any other team to think he would not produce the same sort of “drama” in their locker room?  But in the NFL, talent trumps bad behavior, and Tyreek Hill does have talent …

Finally, some of today’s commentary deals with errors that need to be corrected; so, let me close with these words from Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC):

“It’s one thing to shoot yourself in the foot.  Just don’t reload the gun.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

With the sporadic writing here in Curmudgeon Central over the Holidays, I did not have the opportunity to comment on a small matter that produced a headline for a day or so and then slipped quietly into the night.

• Jim Laranaga stepped down as the head basketball coach at the University of Miami.

Laranaga is a basketball lifer; he played for Providence in the late 60s and took a job as a graduate assistant coach at Providence in 1971 right after he graduated.  He has been an assistant coach or a head coach at the collegiate level ever since then.  Laranaga is 75 years old and has clearly earned his retirement days; twice he took teams to the Final Four (Geroge Mason and Miami) and even when his teams lacked the talent level to be a top-shelf contender, those teams always played hard and made opponents earn any victories.

As he announced his resignation, Laranaga cited his desire to spend more time with his family meaning someone else needed to spend extra time with the team since he no longer would be able to do that.  Frankly, that is an obligatory aside in any resignation/retirement statement; here is part of his statement that caught my attention:

“The University needs a new leader of the program, one who is both adept at and embracing of the new world of intercollegiate athletics.”

Jim Laranaga is another victim of the unintended consequences of “paying college players” and “NIL cooperatives”.  He joins a growing list of college coaches – – in basketball and in football – – who simply do not want to be a part of what college sports have become.  If you want, you can say something akin to “Good riddance” to those folks who refuse to embrace “change”.  Or, you can say that the jury is still out as to whether the new incarnation of collegiate athletics is in fact better overall than it used to be.

Specifically, I hope Jim Laranaga has a long and satisfying retirement.  Bonne chance, good sir.

Moving on …  With the NFL regular season over as of last night, I was thinking back on events in the last offseason that were considered to be impactful at the time but just did not work out.  The one that spurred my thinking was the Falcons’ signing of Kirk Cousins to be their franchise QB – – only to have the team also take Michael Penix, Jr. with a Top-10 Draft pick.  The Cousins deal was for 4 years and had about $100M guaranteed and I remember thinking that the Falcons were going to try and emulate what the Packers did with Aaron Rodgers who sat for 4 years while Brett Favre finished his career in Green Bay before turning the keys to the car over to Rodgers.  I thought that made sense.

There is a thing known as “Buyer’s Remorse”.  Basically, it is a feeling of regret experienced by some folks soon after they have made an extravagant/expensive acquisition.   I was thinking this morning that the Falcons may be feeling Buyer’s Remorse about now with that large guaranteed payment hanging over the team’s salary cap status.  And then I realized that there were a couple other “trumpeted moves” from last offseason that just did not work out the way they were envisioned.

The Jets traded for Hassan Reddick giving up a third-round pick to acquire him.  Reddick wanted a new deal, and the Eagles were not inclined to give it to him; hence, the trade.  In 2023 with the Eagles, Reddick recorded 11 sacks and 13 tackles for a loss; getting him for a third-round pick seemed like a good idea.  The problem was that Reddick was very serious about wanting a new contract and he held out from the Jets’ Training Camp plus for several weeks of the regular season. In 2024, Reddick only appeared in 10 games, and he produced 1 sack and 2 tackles for a loss.  That is a significant reduction in performance and clearly could not have been part of the Jets’ thinking last year.

Lest anyone think I am picking on the Jets here, the Eagles had a need to replace Reddick on their roster; remember he gave them 11 sacks in 2023.  So, the Eagles chose to sign Bryce Huff as a free agent which had an ironic note to it:

• Huff had been an edge rusher/DE for the Jets in 2023 and had recorded 10 sacks and 10 tackles for loss.

On the surface, it looked as if the Eagles had replaced Reddick’s onfield production at a contractual level they were happy with AND they had pocketed a third-round draft pick for their troubles.  Let me channel Lee Corso here:

“Not so fast, my friend…”

Huff appeared in 12 games for the Eagles in 2024 and needed surgery for a wrist injury in mid-season.  In those 12 games, Huff produced 2.5 sacks, 3 tackles for loss and 1 forced fumble.  Neither player turned out to be nearly as productive as envisioned at signing time.

One other move that turned out to be a bad one involved Diontae Johnson.  Back before the Draft last year, the Steelers traded Johnson to the Panthers for CB. Donte Jackson and a low-round draft pick.  The Panthers’ offense was anemic in 2023; Johnson was supposed to give them a credible deep threat at WR.  Diontae Johnson’s season in 2024 was basically a disappointing downward spiral:

• He played 7 games for the Panthers catching 30 passes for 3 TDs.
• In mid-season the Panthers sent him to the Ravens for a late-round pick swap.  That had to be disappointing to the Panthers’ braintrust, but the team did not fall apart after sending him off.
• For the Ravens he played in 4 games and caught 1 pass for 6 yards.  He also refused to enter a game for the Ravens when another WR was injured.  Naturally, the Ravens just waived him.
• The Texans took Johnson off waivers; he played 1 game in Houston and caught 2 passes for 12 yards.

I guess the Texans might be happy with their move to acquire Johnson since it cost them only a waiver claim; the Panthers and Ravens are probably not happy with their acquisition decisions.

Finally, having focused today on the concept of “Buyer’s Remorse” let me suggest that the part of our society over the last several decades where this concept should be easily recognized is the political realm.  How many politicians have we the people elected to a wide range of offices who subsequently did not perform or produce as promised?  Sadly …

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Happy New Year, everyone.  I get to kick off ranting in 2025 – – so to speak – – with the first Football Friday of the year on the first Friday of the year.  As the first order of business, I will review last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Spreads and Totals went 4-2-0.  I’ll take that percentage every week.
• Money Line Parlays went 2-1; “Profit = $181.  Muy Bueno!

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The College Football Playoff needs structural repair.  The four first round games produced four blowout results that were less than entertaining.  Please do not tell me that the Notre Dame/Indiana game had only a 10-point differential and that is not a blowout.  With 2 minutes to play in the game, the score was 27-3; that game was indeed a blowout.

Then came Round 2 – – where the top seeds would enter the fray.  That is where and when the drama would reach a crescendo.  Not so.  Penn St. and Ohio St. dominated their opponents.  At least Texas/Arizona St. and Notre Dame/Georgia produced some moments of uncertainty for fans watching at home without a direct rooting interest in the outcomes.  Two “good games” out of “eight games played to date” is not compelling TV – – and it is only for the capture of TV money that this 12-team playoff exists.

The top four seeds by the Selection Committee – – albeit with some seeding rules handed to them without any escape clauses – – all took gas this week.  Boise St. did not belong in the field; it was there to avoid shutting out the “minor conferences”; the CFP will always have one such participant.  The derogatory term for this in the business world is that Boise St. was a “quota hire” to fill a vacancy that they were not fully prepared to function in prosperously.  The same label could be applied to Clemson, Indiana and SMU which I discussed last week; without those four teams, the field could have been 8 teams, and no one would have gotten a BYE Week over the Holidays.

There is a simple mathematical truth to consider here.  To have a balanced and symmetrical field for a single elimination playoff/tournament, one must have:

• An even number of teams – – AND – –
• That “even number” must represent a integer power of the number 2.

[Aside:  2¹ = 2  2² = 4  2³ = 8  2⁴ = 16  2⁵ = 32  2⁶ = 64 …]

The 12-team field in this year’s CFP fulfills the first condition above but not the second.  What should happen is that the CFP field should shrink to 8 teams; what is going to happen is that the field will expand to 16 teams.  The cash flow from the added games will not allow for the number of games to be televised to decrease.  However, I want you to think about something here; pretend for a moment that this year’s field was 16 and not 12.  What that would mean is that four teams that the Selection Committee evaluated to be inferior to Boise St., Clemson, Indiana and SMU would have been in the field.  Do not ask me to lead the charge for something like that to happen because I think that is moving in the wrong direction.

I also have a problem with the Selection Committee itself that probably cannot be solved.  Currently there are 13 members on that Committee

• Six of the thirteen are Athletic Directors at Division 1-A schools
• One of the thirteen is an Assistant Professor at a university
• One of the thirteen is fully employed by NFL Legends.
• Five of the thirteen are long-time college football coaches who are now fully retired.

The five football coaches could – – if they chose to do so – – spend 40 hours a week reviewing game film from the top 25 or so teams in the country and by the end of November they would have an expertise-based focus on the selection and seeding of the best teams.  I don’t know if those coaches actually do anything of the sort – – but they might choose to do so and I would totally defer to their judgment if they did.

The other 8 members of the Selection Committee have full-time jobs, many of which demand a minimum of 40 hours a week.  I suggest that those members cannot – – even if they really wanted to do so – – spend another 40 hours in a film room reviewing play on the field.  Let me put this in personal terms:

• I watch a lot of college football on TV.
• I watch You Tube highlights of notorious plays and highlights from special games
• I read stat sheets and observations from folks covering lots of games.
• None of this makes me competent to be on the Selection Committee!
• And if that is what those other 8 members of the Committee can bring to the table, then they too are not in the right position as “Selectors”.

I know that sounds like a giant “Hot Take” that I hope to get picked up on some other website that might make it go viral; that is NOT the case.  I have been thinking along these lines for a couple of years now, but this year’s performance by the selected teams and the seeded teams gives me the opportunity to bring my thinking out into the open.

Let me be clear about one thing here.  I AM NOT saying that unless you played the game of college football, your opinions and evaluations are unworthy.  What I AM SAYING is that if  you are going to contribute meaningfully and positively to a discussion about the best twelve or sixteen football teams in the country, you need to have seen all of them play more than a few highlight plays and you need to have seen a few other teams that just might be on the fringe of being in that Top-Twelve or Top-Sixteen.  And if one has a full-time job, I do not think there are enough hours in a week for that person to do the work necessary to be a fully informed “selector”.

I realize I can be proven wrong; I submit that this year’s CFP field and CFP seedings do not come close to proving me wrong.

I also want to comment on something that has come into clear focus for me in the 8 CFP games to date:

• There are way too many “plays under review” … AND …
• Far too many of the reviews that take two minutes to “adjudicate” are clear and obvious calls once one looks at one or two of the replays.  Maybe they could consume 20-30 seconds of delay.
• It is almost as if – – not really but it sure seems like it – – the officials “upstairs” have a quota of reviews to suggest in order to get commercial breaks in for the networks.

Here are some comments on last week’s CFP games:

Notre Dame 23  Georgia 10:  If you like defense, this was a game for you.  Neither team gained 300 yards of Total Offense in the game; Notre Dame won the game averaging only 4.0 yards per offensive play.  The Bulldogs outgained the Irish by 50 yards and the Bulldogs were penalized by 42 fewer yards than the Irish.  Nonetheless, Notre Dame won on the strength of forcing two turnovers and returning the second half kickoff for a TD.  Last week, Notre Dame simply dominated Indiana; they did not dominate Georgia in this game but won handily based on hustle and focus.

Texas 39  Arizona St. 31 (2OT):  It looked as if Texas would run Arizona St. out of town in the first quarter and then it looked as if Texas settled down to an attitude of a cat playing with captured prey – – and it almost cost them the game.  The Sun Devils were the Rocky Balboas of the tournament; they got pounded and pounded – – but they never gave up and they came back to deliver punishing blows of their own sending the game to OT.  Like the fictional Rocky Balboa, the Sun Devils went the distance with Texas…

Ohio St. 41  Oregon 21:  Ladies and gentlemen, Ohio St. WR, Jeremiah Smith, is a freshman; he just turned 19 years old, and his stats for the day were 7 receptions for 187 yards and 2 TDs.  Oregon was undefeated coming into the game but were run out of town on a rail in this one.  With 3 minutes left in the first half, the Buckeyes led 34-0.  For the game, Ohio St. outgained Oregon 500 yards to 297 yards.

Penn St. 31  Boise St. 14:  The Nittany Lions defensive thrust for the game was to make sure Ashton Jeanty did not run wild and beat them; if the Broncos’ QB, Maddux Madsen, could produce a game capable of victory without Jeanty dominating, then so be it.  The Penn St. defensive philosophy worked quite well earlier this week.  Penn St. TE, Tyler Warren, has been on my NFL Draft watch list prior to this game but I now think he could easily be a Top Ten pick next April.

One note I read yesterday is that Alabama QB, Jalen Milroe has declared for the NFL Draft this year.  He certainly has had good coaching and has had experience playing at the top level of college football, but color me skeptical that he is ready for a prominent role at the NFL level just yet.  Now, in his favor, this is a very thin cadre of QBs coming out this year and perhaps his thinking is that he will compare favorably to the top QBs in the draft this year more readily than perhaps next year.  Even so …

Another college QB made some unusual news last week.  Dillon Gabriel is the QB for Oregon and based on this statement made to a TV station in Portland, he is not into “old school football”:

“We love the Rose Bowl.  We love warm weather.  I think we should play more games on nice grass instead of artificial stuff. The more sun the better.

“Why do we do it to ourselves? Do fans want to sit in the snow and the rain?

Let’s make arenas. Let’s make domes. More grass. Let’s do more fireworks at games. Yeah, let’s do that.”

Ignoring for just a moment the difficulties of growing natural grass in domed arenas, let me just say that it would be a great irony if Gabriel were to be drafted by a team like the Jets or the Giants or the Browns or even the Steelers (who need QBs).  In case you did not know, Dillon Gabriel is from Hawaii – – so perhaps his aversion to snow and freezing weather is forgivable.

 

The CFP Semi-Finals:

 

Both games will happen before the next weekend, so the lines and the totals here are VERY early ones that could change dramatically in the next 6 or 7 days.

(Thurs, Jan 9^th)  Notre Dame – 2 vs Penn St. (46):  The injury status for Penn St. DE, Abdul Carter is very important here; he is as good an edge rusher/DE as I have seen in college football this year.  If he can play – – injury is healed – – I like the game to stay UNDER; if he cannot play or cannot play at nearly his normal level, I like Notre Dame to win and cover.

(Fri Jan 10^th) Ohio St. – 6 vs Texas (52):  Here are the pertinent questions for this game:

• Was Ohio St. super-excited to steamroller Oregon because they lost to Oregon earlier this year?  Ohio St. never lost to Texas earlier this year.
• Did Texas take Arizona St. lightly and lose their edge once they went up by 2 scores early in the game?  If they “lose their edge” against Ohio St. it will be fatal.

I love the Texas defense, and I love the Ohio St. offense.  I have no interest in making a pick in this game thereby forcing me to root for a predetermined outcome.  I just want to watch this one intently and focused.  If you care which way I am leaning in this game, I would take Ohio St. on the Money Line.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

            I think it is pretty clear that the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year will be Jayden Daniels and having seen him in about 12 of his 16 games so far, he would be my choice for that honor.  Having said that, let me present some stats for another offensive rookie who seems to have done his business well outside the focus of the spotlight.  Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Brock Bowers of the Las Vegas Raiders – – a team that has been irrelevant to the NFL in 2024 save for their role as an “opposing team” to other squads in the league.

Last year, when talking about the Heisman Trophy and the NFL Draft, I said that the Trophy would go to a QB and that I thought Jayden Daniels deserved that award.  I also said that I thought the “best football player” I waw for the year was Brock Bowers.  So, fast forward to today and let’s take a look at Bowers‘ stats as a rookie TE for the Raiders:

• In 16 games, Bowers had been targeted 144 times and caught 108 passes.  That is a 75% success rate.
• Bowers has 1144 yards receiving or 10.6 yards per reception.
• Bowers has 4 TDs and 58 receptions resulting in a first down.
• Oh, by the way, he is also a very competent blocker as a tight end …

Seen in isolation, you can consider these stats overly optimistic or not much more than hum-drum; so let me give you some comparisons:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown is a top-shelf WR.  He has 109 receptions and 1186 yards receiving; that is one more catch and 42 more yards than Bowers who is a TE.
• CeeDee Lamb is a top-shelf WR.  He has 101 catches and 1194 yards receiving; that is 7 fewer catches and 50 more yards than Bowers who is a TE.
• Garrett Wilson is a top-shelf WR.  He has 97 catches and 1053 yards receiving which is11 fewer receptions and 91 fewer yards than Bowers who is a TE.

So, where are Bowers’ stats compared to other tight ends?

• Travis Kelce – – you’ve heard of him – – has 97 receptions for 823 yards; that is 11 fewer catches for 321 fewer yards.
• George Kittle – – you’ve heard of him – – has 76 receptions for 1079 yards; that is 32 fewer catches for 65 fewer yards.

I think you get the idea here.  Brock Bowers is a damned good football player and can make up for the fact that the people throwing the ball in his direction have been Gardner Minshew, Aiden O’Connell and Desmond Ridder.  Let me just say that none of those three passers will ever be confused with Patrick Mahomes at any point in the present tense or the future tense.

Brock Bowers is an outstanding football player; recognize it.  He has already broken Mike Ditka’s record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end and if he snags 9 balls in his final game this week, he will eclipse Zach Ertz’ record for most catches by a tight end in a season.

Soon, the NFL Coach of the Year will be identified.  There are only 32 possible candidates for the award and so I will take the liberty to identify – – alphabetically – – my Top-25% of the candidates for this season.  You can add or subtract from this list as you please:

1. Dan Campbell:  His team is 14-2; you may think he is raving yahoo, but he has his team winning games with significant folks on IR.
2. Jim Harbaugh:  The Chargers have been an underachieving bunch of stuff for years now; Harbaugh has the Chargers at 10-6 with a guaranteed playoff slot in his first year there.
3. Sean McDermott:  The Bills are 13-3 so far and continue to dominate the AFC East.
4. Sean McVay:  The Rams are 10-6; they have clinched the NFC West title despite starting the season at 1-4 including a loss to the Bears and a blowout loss to the Cards.
5. Kevin O’Connell:  His team is 14-2; it may seem as if they are doing it with smoke and mirrors, but it has been sustained for an awfully long time now.
6. Sean Payton:  Coming off a disastrous season last year and with a rookie QB, the Broncos are 9-7 and still have a realistic shot to make the playoffs this year.
7. Dan Quinn:  His Commanders are relevant in January which is a major vector heading deviation from recent years.
8. Andy Reid:  If you need something tangible to accept this nomination, consider the record is 15-1 which is better than anyone else’s.

Tons of attention has been paid to Saquon Barkley and the single-season rushing record; the decision is that the Eagles will not play Barkley against the Giants this week so that record will stand.  However, there is another record by an NFL “All-Timer” that could be matched this week, and it has gotten only passing mention by comparison:

• Mike Evans needs 85 yards receiving this week to reach 1,000 yards.  If he does so, that will be the 10^th consecutive season with that receiving total in his first 10 seasons in the NFL.  The only other player to do that is Jerry Rice.

Here are comments on some of the games from last weekend.

Lions 40  Niners 28:  I think the most important thing about this game was the Brock Purdy threw for 377 yards and 3 TDs in the game and kept it sufficiently interesting until the middle of the second half.  The Niners season has imploded on them; the Lions will go to the playoffs hoping their defense does not implode any further.

Giants 45  Colts 33:  The Giants had lost 10 games in a row when they kicked off here and then Drew Lock did his John Unitas imitation.  Lock was 17 of 23 for 309 yards with 4 TDs and zero INTs.  Oh yeah, he also ran for a TD.  This offensive explosion dropped the Giants draft order from overall #1 to overall #4.  If the Colts are not feeling humiliated by this performance, they should.

Eagles 41  Cowboys 7:  No Jalen Hurts?  No problem.  No Kenny Pickett?  No problem.  Welcome Tanner McKee, a late round pick from Stanford who entered the game in the second half and went 3 of 4 for 54 yards and 2 TDs.  The score was tied 7-7 at the end of the first quarter; after that the outcome was not seriously in doubt.

Raiders 25  Saints 10:  Another example of a bad team winning a game and hurting their draft position next April.  The game was meaningless to 2024 standings and action, so the only way to look at it is through the perspective of next year’s draft.

Jags 20  Titans 13:  I guess one of these bottom-feeders had to win this one …

Vikes 27  Packers 25:  This game was not quite as close as the score might lead you to believe; the Vikes led 27-10 at the start of the 4^th quarter.  Sam Darnold was the star of the game throwing for 377 yards and 3 TDs for the night.

Bengals 30  Broncos 24 (OT):  The Bengals kept their slim playoff hopes alive with this win.  Joe Burrow threw 3 TD passes and amassed 411 yards passing in the game; Tee Higgins had 11 catches for 131 yards and hauled in all 3 of Burrow’s TD passes.

 

Games This Week:

 

There are some outrageously surprising lines this week reflecting which teams will be playing their starters and which teams have something immediate to motivate top performance in this last week of the NFL regular season.  The field for the NFC playoffs is pretty much set; three things remain in doubt:

• The Packers and Commanders will be the #6 and #7 seeds, but that order will depend on game results this weekend.
• Either the Lions or the Vikes will be the #1 seed and get the playoff BYE Week based on the winner this week; the loser will be the #5 seed.
• Either the Bucs or the Falcons will win the NFC South, and that division winner will be in the playoffs and the other team will be out.

Over in the AFC:

• The Bengals, Dolphins and Broncos can all make the final playoff slot in the Conference depending on what happens this week.  The Broncos control their position; if they win, they’re in.

Because of all the uncertainty this week, I am not going to offer up a “Betting Bundle” because the NFL slate is closer to a week of Exhibition Games than anything else and the college lines are too early to be reliable.  In cases where I have a “leaning” I’ll indicate it.

(Sat 4:30PM ET) Browns at Ravens – 20 (41):  The spread for this game opened at 17.5 points and has expanded from that lofty level.  The Ravens clinch the division with a victory here and the Browns are a sorry sack of s*it at this point in the season.  Nevertheless, anyone who wagers on any NFL game with a 20-point spread is clearly addicted and needs an intervention.  The Browns’ offense has gone AWOL over the last month; consider:

• Steelers 27 Browns 14 (This is the “good game” on this list!)
• Chiefs 21 Browns 7
• Bengals 24 Browns 6
• Dolphins 20 Browns 3

Meanwhile, the Ravens average 30 points per game.  This game is on national TV; I wonder if it can hold its initial audience for very long.

(Sat 8:00 PM ET) Bengals – 2 at Steelers (48):  If the Browns were to win outright, the Steelers would be division champs with a win.  The Bengals can still snuggle their way into the final playoff slot but the only way to do that is for them to win here.  Hence the spread for the game and the unusually high Total Line for a Steelers’ game.  If you absolutely must have some action on games this weekend, consider taking the Bengals to win and cover.  If you absolutely must have some action on games this weekend, consider your situation in the much larger context of your life.

Saints at Bucs – 14 (44):  The Bucs are in the same situation as the Ravens; if they win, they’re in.  The Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 games to put themselves in that position; the Saints are 5-11 and have looked awful in their last two losses.  With Mike Evans needing 85 yards to tie an NFL record (see above), my guess is that he is targeted early and often in this game.

Bills – 2.5 at Pats (38):  The spread here opened at 5.5 points; then came reports that the Bills would start Josh Allen to keep a streak alive, but that Allen would be subbed out of the game; naturally, the line adjusted to that news.  Despite their 3-11-0 record, the Pats played the Bills very close just two weeks ago in Buffalo; was that an omen or just a happenstance?

Bears at Packers – 10 (41):  The Packers and the Commanders are both in the playoffs; the Packers are in the 7^th slot but could move up to the 6^th slot with a win here and a Commanders’ loss to the Cowboys.  The Bears are a stone cold mess; they have lost 10 games in a row ever since losing to the Commanders on a Hail Mary pass in October.  So, the Packers have some motivation unless they check the scoreboard and see the Commanders up big on the Cowboys.

Dolphins – 1.5 at Jets (39):  Even if this were not Week 18, there is no way I would bet this game.  The Dolphins need several things to fall their way to get into the playoffs; the Jets have been eliminated from that possibility for about a month.  Tua will not play for the Dolphins this week and the game is in NYC where the warm-weather Dolphins have not shown well in late season games in the past.  So, my choice here would be to take the dog-assed Jets [Hat Tip to Dan Jenkins] or a Dolphins team without their starting QB in a venue not suited to their game.  No thanks; I’ll pass.

Chiefs at Broncos – 10.5 (40):  If the Broncos win, they are in the playoffs and both the Bengals and the Dolphins are out.  The Chiefs will get next week off no matter what happens here, and they have already announced that they will play Carson Wentz in place of Patrick Mahomes and sit other starters.  I think that provides an interesting angle to the game.  Wentz has had his career arc aimed downward for about 5 years now, but he showed some talent in his first couple of years in the league.  So, how might he produce in an “Andy Reid system” with a full season of study as a backup?  That angle is more interesting to me than the game outcome.

Chargers – 4.5 at Raiders (41.5):  The good news here is that the Raiders have a two-game winning streak; the bad news is that those two wins have dropped the Raiders out of the Top-5 for the Draft next April.  Both coaches are reputed to be great motivators; both coaches will need that capability to get this game played at full speed; it really doesn’t mean much of anything.

Jags at Colts – 5 (44):  With apologies to Elizabeth Barret Browning …  How meaningless is this game?  Let me count the ways:

• It is inconsequential, insignificant, pointless, unimportant, useless and worthless.
• That pretty much sums things up.

The Colts simply wet the bed last week giving up 45 points to the Giants; the Jags are just miserable.

Panthers at Falcons – 9 (48):  The Falcons can win the NFC South with a win here and a loss by the Bucs.  The Falcons have shown well in the last couple of weeks but that may not be enough to get in the playoffs because the Bucs should prevail over the Saints this week.  The Panthers have looked better late this season than they did at the start – – but there is still plenty of room for improvement.

Commanders – 6 at Cowboys (44.5):  The Commanders are in the playoffs and the Cowboys are not; the Commanders will keep their #6 seed in the playoffs with a win.  The Cowboys won the first meeting between these two teams back in late November giving the Commanders another smidgen of motivation to play well here.

Seahawks – 6.5 at Rams (39):  The spread here opened at Rams – 2.5 and has swung by 9 points toward the Seahawks.  It appears that the Rams will be resting starters and announced Jimmy Garoppolo will play QB in the game.  The Seahawks looked disinterested and discombobulated last week even though they beat the Bears 6-3.

Niners at Cards – 5 (43):  Here is the motivation factor for this game:

• If the Niners win, they will not finish dead last in the NFC West.

What more can you ask for?

Texans at Titans – 1 (37):  The Texans are in the playoffs as division champs and the Titans are 3-13-0 and have lost their last 5 games in a row.  Nevertheless, the Titans are favored here giving you an idea how the oddsmakers view the import of this game…

Giants at Eagles – 3 (37.5):  The Giants held the top pick in the Draft for next April – – until they beat the Colts last week.  If they win here, I believe they could drop all the way to #8 in the upcoming Draft which would put an exclamation point on a miserable season for the club which included a 10-game losing streak.  The fact that the Eagles will rest starters and are still favored in the game says a lot about the way the oddsmakers view the Giant’s roster.

(Sun Nite) Vikes at Lions – 2.5 (54.5):  The Total Line for this game opened at 51.5 points and has been climbing slowly but steadily all week.  This is clearly the Game of the Week; both teams show up with records of 14-2-0; the winner gets the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs and the loser gets the #5 seed meaning the loser has to play a road game in Round 1 of the playoffs.  There is plenty at stake here.  Why is the Total Line high – – and getting higher?

• The Lions give up 250.4 yards per game passing; only the Jags are worse.
• The Vikes give up 243.6 yards per game which ranks them 28^th in the league.
• The Lions have given up 18 TD passes, and the Vikes have given up 23 TD passes.

So, which passing offense is going to have the better day?  The one led by Jared Goff who has been in games of this magnitude before or the one led by Sam Darnold whose career rose from the ashes this year when JJ McCarthy was injured in Training Camp?  If I were going to pick this game, I would play it to go OVER the Total Line.

There is no “Betting Bundle” to review this week, but let me throw out – – just for giggles – – a four-team Money Line Parlay:

• Bengals @ minus-130
• Bucs @ minus-820
• Falcons @ minus-400
• Commanders @ minus- 200     $100 wager to win $272

Finally, let me close with this from Vince Lombardi:

“Once you learn to quit, it becomes a habit.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………