Author: Jack

Readers here know that I like to have fun with the names of players/coaches.  Ab out 15 years ago, I ran across the name of a QB at Eastern Washington University and immediately he became one of my “favorites”.  His name is Bo Levi Mitchell – – and my immediate reaction then was:

• I’m a BoLiever in Bo Levi !

He has had a long and successful career in the CFL – – 10 years with the Calgary Stampeders and the last 2  years with the Hamilton TigerCats – – compiling a record of 99-39-2 as a starter.  I mention this as an introduction to a game last week where Mitchell and the TigerCats beat the Toronto Argonauts 51-38.  Here is Bo Levi’s stat line:

• 19 of 24 for 332 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs

[Aside:  WR Kenny Lawler caught 6 passes for 207 yards and 3 TDs, so he had quite a good game too.]

I had an e-mail exchange working with Gregg Drinnan – – former sports editor of the Kamloops Daily News – – and he pointed out that there was another unusual occurrence in that Hamilton/Toronto game beyond a team scoring 50+ points and a QB having a night like that:

“During that Hamilton-Toronto game, there were two kickoffs returned for TDs. That earned a guy named Roy Lyster of New Westminster, B.C., a cool $1 million. (Actually, $50,000 a year for 20 years.) A Canadian grocery store outfit (Save-On Foods) runs a Million Dollar Touchdown To Win contest and has for a number of years. This was the first time it paid off.”“

Moving on …  The US Men’s National Team (USMNT) made it to the finals of the Gold Cup Tournament and then lost to Mexico by a score of 2-1.  The USMNT had been going through some rough times in various friendlies but seemed to be getting its act together in the Gold Cup tournament.  That is a good sign because the team will be in the World Cup next year because the US will be host to more than half the games in that event.

I saw most – – not all – – of the game on TV and after the game there was a lot of complaining by the US team about the officiating.  There was one critical call that went against the Americans which could have had a bearing on the ultimate outcome.  Inside the penalty box, a Mexican player had lost his balance and was clearly extending his arm to break his fall onto the ground.  He was not looking in the direction of the ball at all.

As he fell, a US player took a shot at the goalkeeper and the off-balance player’s hand trapped the ball, stopping it completely as the off-balance player went to the ground.  Obviously, the Americans wanted that to be a penalty kick for a handball; the Mexicans were happy that the referee ruled that the hand contact was incidental.

Back in the 80s, Diego Maradona scored a goal for Argentina in a World Cup game against England, and it is pretty clear that the goal was caused by Maradona’s hand not his feet.  The English side was upset at the time and remains upset to this day; Maradona coyly said afterward:

“Even if there was a hand, it was the Hand of God.”

Well, if Maradona’s goal was scored by “The Hand of God”, then the blocked shot in the US/Mexico game was saved by that same “Hand of God”.  The symmetry of the universe is restored.

Switching gears …  The NY Knicks found a coach – – and a pretty good one at that.  Mike Brown will take over the team next year; he has been the NBA Coach of the Year twice in his career; his winning percentage in the NBA is .599.  I think this will be an interesting situation to watch.

Like departed Knicks’ coach Tom Thibodeau, Brown has emphasized defense over the course of his career.  One of the weaknesses of the Knicks poses an interesting situation for coaches who like to have their teams stop the other guys from scoring occasionally:

• The Knicks’ two best offensive players – – Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns – – are both well below average as defenders.
• Both need to be on the court together to maximize the Knicks’ scoring potential AND when both are on the court together, the team is playing 3 against 5 on defense.

Mathematicians tried for centuries to “square the circle”; the Knicks’ situation will not persist for centuries, but it may prove to be similarly intractable.

One other aspect of Brown’s signing with the Knicks, the team must have driven a hard bargain.  The ousted coach, Tom Thibodeau, was reportedly making $11M per season.  Brown’s deal is reported to be 4 years and $40M.  I need not be a world-class mathematician taking time from my attempts to “square the circle” to figure out that an average of $10M per year is less than $11M per year.

Finally, apropos of nothing, I’ll close today with these words from Albert Einstein:

“The only reason for time is so that everything doesn’t happen at once.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Because I want to contemplate abundance and scarcity in the sports world today, let me begin with a digression.  If you have not read Ezra Klein’s and Derek Thompson’s new book,  Abundance, How We Build A Better Future, let me recommend that you do so.  It is easily read over a rainy weekend; it is both inspiring and frustrating at the same time.  It deals directly with the concepts of abundance and scarcity in present-day America.

Over in the sports world it seems that we have moved through environments of:

• “Scarcity” – – It was unusual to turn on the TV randomly and find a sporting event on the air on the channel you randomly tuned into …
• “Abundance” – – Sporting events were plentiful on the airwaves and then onto …
• “Glut” – – Who knew that was even a “sport”?

When I was a kid, the only baseball games on my TV – – short of the World Series – – were when the home team was on the road or if there was a Sunday afternoon game which there almost always was.  Maybe there would be an NFL game on a random weekend after the World Series was over; there was almost no college basketball on TV and there was an NBA Game of the Week on Saturdays.  The only sports event that was “certain” was Friday Night Fights – – the Gilette Cavalcade of Sports – – on NBC.

As a young adult, sports programming spread nicely.  MLB had a Game of the Week on Saturdays and college basketball for the “local schools” was  used as time slot filler for the newly emerging UHF channels which challenged the hegemony of Channels 2 through 12 that had existed for about 25 years.  As a kid, I thought it was great to be able to see sports on TV instead of things like “Lawrence Welk” or “Arthur Godfrey” or “Omnibus”.

It seemed to me that “Morning in America” arrived when ABC began to put Wide World of Sports on the air in the early 1960s not when Ronald Regan proclaimed its existence in his 1984 Presidential Campaign.  Long before Archie and Edith Bunker sang Those Were The Days, my sense was that I was living in a time when I had access to the full abundance of the sports world.  Not so …

As people tuned in to more and more sports programming, networks and local stations began to put more and more on the air.  Selling TV rights to events became the major revenue stream for schools and college conferences and professional franchises.  And in that economic sphere, more revenue is always preferable to less revenue meaning more sports on TV is always better than less sports on TV meaning …

Today, we have entire networks that do nothing but telecast sporting events and programming about sporting events.  Moreover, those networks are not only available to us on our TV sets in our homes – – or at places called “sports bars” that never existed when I was a kid.  No, those networks are omnipresent on our tablets and phones that we carry with us everywhere all the time.  We have passed from scarcity through abundance to arrive at a State of Glut.

I know the solution for individuals is simply to turn off the TV or look at a different app on the phone to avoid the sports assault on the senses; my problem is that the Sports Glut has created an environment where the events themselves are diluted.  Let me use the NBA as an example here:

• The NBA playoffs used to be semi-finals and finals.
• Today the NBA playoffs involve 20 of the 30 teams in the league.
• More “dramatic games” and more television inventory.

Here is something to consider:

• If two-thirds of a league will be in the playoffs at the end of the regular season, must that regular season be 82 games in length and involve 1230 individual games?

The same can be said for MLB and for the NHL.  What the “State of Glut” does to leagues is to devalue the majority of the regular season games.  They are no longer “events”; they have become “occurrences”.  That status is demonstrated by the secondary market for most regular season games in MLB or the NBA.

Lots of season-ticket holders recognize that they will not want or be able to attend every game for their favorite team over the course of the season and many of them try to sell their excess ticket inventory at places like Stub Hub.  Often, those secondary market tix can be had for as little as 10 cents on the dollar as compared to what the season ticket holder paid for them up front.  That secondary ticket market is driven almost exclusively by supply and demand and the low ticket prices indicate a very small demand.

It is possible that the “State of Glut” can lead to an economic slide that will do damage to the sports and the leagues that have fed the monster that has become the “State of Glut”.  If fans are not willing to buy up all the “spare tix” on the secondary market even at 10 cents on the dollar, who is to say that those same fans might find other things to watch on their TVs and phones instead of sports events?  Here are data:

Ratings for regular season games in MLB and the NBA have been trending down.

• Ratings drive the value of advertising slots.
• Lower value for advertisers means less revenue for networks meaning less revenue for leagues.
• And so it goes …

Please note that almost none of the above applies to the NFL.  I believe the reason for that is that the NFL presents “weekly events” and not “daily occurrences”.  There is an abundance of games; the playoffs are short because they are “one-and-done”; there are only 272 regular season games and most of them matter.  I think it would behoove other leagues and other sports to consider the meaningfulness of their games as part of their strategic planning and to focus less on revenue streams for the next quarter or two.

Finally, I’ll close with these:

“From abundance springs satiety.”  Livy

And …

 “Gluttony is not a secret vice.”  Orson Welles

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

For the 2025 season, the Rays and the A’s are both drawing fewer than 10,000 fans per game at home.  That fact is easily rationalized; both teams are playing in minor league facilities for the 2025 season and neither stadium has the capacity to hold a typical major league crowd.  It is no surprise that those two teams have the lowest home attendance in MLB so far this season.

The third lowest home attendance figure for 2025 belongs to the Miami Marlins at 11,698 fans per game.

• That average crowd could almost fit into the Rays’ home field in Tampa.
• That average crowd would fit fine with seats left over in Sacramento.

The Marlins’ attendance woes have nothing to do with the number of available seats on sale; the Marlins’ attendance woes are endemic.  The Marlins entered the NL in 1993; in that inaugural season, the team drew 3.06M fans; euphoria was in the air.  Then, in 1997 the Marlins drew 2.36M fans – – and by the way, the Marlins won the World Series in that 1997 season.  Fast forward to 2012, when the Marlins drew 2.22M fans.  The “occasion” for that attendance bump in 2012 was the opening of a new stadium for the team – – the one that exists today.

In more than 30 seasons, the Marlins have drawn more than 2 million fans only three times and all three of those occasions involved an unusual confluence of events:

• Inaugural season
• World Series victory
• New stadium

[Aside:  The Marlins also won the World Series in 2003 but drew only 1.30M fans that season and 1.72M fans in the subsequent 2004 season.]

If that does not seem bleak enough for you consider that in the lifespan of the Marlins, they have drawn fewer than 900K fans in a season five times – – and that miserable statistic does NOT include the COVID shortened season in 2020.  The low-water mark for Marlins’ season attendance came in 2021 when season attendance was 642,617 for an average attendance of 7,394 diehard souls per game.

MLB has four franchises that are laggards at the gate just about every season:

1. The Rays need a new stadium because a hurricane destroyed the old one – – the one that people say was awful and caused the Rays’ attendance woes.  That all happened last year; and so far, there has been no dirt moved to start a new construction project.
2. The A’s have broken ground on a new home field in Las Vegas.  Given the attendance successes for Las Vegas franchises in the NFL and the NHL, there is reason for optimism there.
3. The White Sox field is not in the best part of Chicago and there seems to be little if any interest in public contributions to a new home for the team in the city.  The team owner, Jerry Reinsndorf, is almost 90 years old and is not likely to fund a new stadium construction project on his own.
4. The Marlins’ situation is described above.

MLB wants to expand from 30 teams to 32 teams; officially, that is not a front-burner issue, but the league and the owners would love to divvy up those two expansion franchise fees.  And that presents a dilemma – – make that a trilemma:

1. Do these lowly attendance figures depress the price that expansion owners might be willing to “ante up”?  If so, MLB may need to think about moving the Rays, White Sox or Marlins to “greener pastures”.  That would be a modern-day analog to “salting the mine”.  OR…
2. Would moving those existing franchises to “greener pastures” take up space where there is enthusiasm for an MLB franchise but now the slot is filled, and the league must look for “lesser venues”?  OR …
3. Would the movement of the first existing franchise to a “greener pasture” encourage local pols in existing teams that have not  yet been relocated to ease up on the public purse strings a bit and be a bit more generous in their dealings with the team and the league?

If MLB were to embark on a strategy akin to the expansion/relocation ideas outlined here, where might they cast their gaze?

• Charlotte – – either expansion or relocation site
• Memphis or Nashville – – either expansion or relocation site
• Montreal – – relocation site
• Portland – – expansion territory
• Raleigh/Durham – – either expansion or relocation site if Charlotte is a non-starter
• Salt Lake City – – expansion territory
• Indianapolis?  Orlando?  San Antonio?  Tidewater, VA?  Vancouver?

Finally, here is Yogi Berra on attendance at baseball games:

“If people don’t want to come out to the ballpark, nobody’s gonna stop ‘em.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports ………

 

 

Last week, I mentioned in passing that the lowest paid attendance for a World Series game was in 1908 between the Tigers and the Cubs.  Well, that is not all that was notable about that game and I learned more about it from the “reader in Houston” later that day:

“Regarding the smallest attendance at a World Series game between the Cubs at Tigers in 1908, the crowd of 6,210 in attendance at the game was more than the Tigers’ average regular season attendance, which was 5,665 at Bennett Park (capacity 8,500 – increased to 14,000 in 1910).

“That Game 5 was also the fastest World Series game in history being clocked in at 1:25 and the last championship by the Cubbies until 2016.”

And now you know.

Moving on …  The Washington Nationals are not a good MLB team this year and have not been “above average” for the last 5 years.  Over the weekend, the Nats fired their manager and their GM.  On one hand, you can look at the record since the Nats won the World Series in 2019 and think that the management team of Mike Rizzo and Dave Martinez deserves to be out looking for work.  In his tenure with the team, Martinez’ cumulative record was 500-622 – – and there was a World Series season included in that cumulative record.  Both men were in the final year of their contracts so one could also wonder why a firing near the All-Star break is going to matter much; this morning the Nats are in last place in the NL East and are 16 games out of first place in that division.  Only the woeful Colorado Rockies have a worse record in the NL as of this morning.

For those of you who do not live in the DC area and have no reason to follow the Nats closely, I think at least an equal measure of blame for the team needs to rest with the owners themselves.  The Nats have drafted and developed lots of young talent, but the owners do not pay them once they get to free agency.  Here are young talents that have come and gone since Dave Martinez took the job 8 years ago:

• Bryce Harper
• Anthony Rendon – – perennially injured
• Juan Soto
• Stephen Strasbourg – – suffered career ending injury
• Trea Turner

It is nice to note that two young Nats are going to be in the All-Star Game this year.  Pitcher MacKensie Gore and outfielder James Wood deserve that recognition.  And, fans in this area have exactly no reason to think that they will continue to be with the Nats once they accumulate enough MLB time to become free agents.

Switching gears …  Last week, Clayton Kershaw recorded his 3000^th strikeout.  That earns him membership in a rather exclusive club; only 20 pitchers in MLB history have ever done that and Kershaw is only the 4^th left-hander to do so.  [Aside:  Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson and CC Sabathia are the other three lefties on that short list.]  So, naturally, that raises the question:

• Is there another active pitcher who might make a run at 3000 career strikeouts?

Here are 4 possibilities:

1. Chris Sale is 36 years old and has 2528 Ks to his credit.  His injury history is catching up to him – – but he has a shot at 3000Ks if he stays healthy.
2. Gerrit Cole is 34 years old and has 2251 Ks to his credit.  He is out rehabbing from elbow surgery and will not pitch again until at least 2026 – – he too has a shot if he can have three or four healthy years ahead.
3. Charlie Morton is 41 years old and has 2124 Ks to his credit.  I think he will need to drink from the Fountain of Youth to find 876 more Ks to record.
4. Yu Darvish is 38 years old and is the only other active pitcher with 2000+ Ks to his credit; he has 2007 of them.

            Sale and Cole might make it to the “3000-Club” although neither would be an odds-on favorite to do so.  Looking at the list of the Top Ten active pitchers with strikeout totals, only Aaron Nola (age 32) is under the age of 35.  It could be a while until fans see another pitcher record 3000 strikeouts.

Finally, Connie Mack, former owner and manager of the A’s, had this to say about striking out:

“You’re born with two strikes against you, so don’t take a third one on your own.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Happy Independence Day, everyone.  Celebrate safely and sanely.

I know that NFL teams have not reported to training camp yet and that the start of real NFL action is about 8 weeks in the future, but there is a confluence of events in the NFL that I will be very interested to watch unfold once things get underway.  Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you:

• The 2025 version of the Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a franchise known for stability, staying the course, patience, a blue-collar identity …  You get the idea.  Their last “losing season” was in 2003 – – albeit there have been four seasons with records of 8-8-0 in that streak.  The team has been in the Playoffs in four of the last five years.  What might entice such an organization to make a big change in “philosophy” with that history?

The Steelers have had a few divas over that time span, but their most accomplished players were the antithesis of “diva”.  Check this list of top-shelf Steelers’ players and try to apply the “diva label” to more than one or two:

• Jerome Bettis
• James Harrison
• Cam Hayward
• Santonio Holmes – – plenty of “diva” mixed in there
• Troy Polamalu
• Ben Roethlisberger
• Hines Ward
• TJ Watt
• Rod Woodson

And that list does not include any of the stars of the Super Bowl teams in the 1970s none of whom were remotely in the “diva category”.  So, in the offseason between 2024 and 2025, this stable and stay-the-course franchise decided to:

1. Sign Aaron Rodgers
2. Trade for DK Metcalf
3. Trade for Jalen Ramsey
4. Get into a “contract stare-down” with TJ Watt

Mike Tomlin has been the Steelers’ head coach since 2007; he is the longest tenured coach with an NFL team at the moment; this current roster may contain more personnel who represent “potential turmoil” than all the Steelers’ rosters combined in the Mike Tomlin Era.  And what I will find interesting to watch is this:

• Will Tomlin adapt to the new personnel dynamic?
• Will the rest of the roster adapt to the new personnel dynamic?
• Will Tomlin and the Steelers “squelch” the “diva potential” on the roster?

I am well aware of the adage that “Winning cures everything”.  So, if the Steelers make it to the AFC Championship Game, it will not matter – – nor will it be apparent – – how the team coalesced to get  there.  By the same token, if the Steelers have a miserable season and are drafting in the Top Three for next year’s Draft, there will be so many fingers pointed, and stories floated about the collapse that it will be difficult to separate fact from fiction.  Since I expect neither of those extreme scenarios to play out in 2025, that means it could be possible to take a synoptic view of the team and perhaps divine why they took the course they did and how the coaches managed the change.

Finally, since I began today with Independence Day wishes for everyone, let me close with a line from the morning time DJ at a local rock-and-roll station from my youth.  Here is what Bill Wright Sr. told everyone about having a safe Fourth of July:

“To have a safe Fourth, don’t buy a fifth on the third.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Let me begin today with a Public Service Announcement:

• As of today, we are halfway through calendar year 2025 meaning we are closer to the year 2050 than we are to the year 2000.
• Tempus fugit.

My long-suffering wife often accuses me of worrying about things in the future well before they could possibly happen.  She is right, of course; it is not one of my few if any attractive traits.  So, let me apply that idiosyncrasy of mine to a sports situation today.

The Tampa Bay Rays would be in the playoffs as a Wild Card team if the season ended now and they are within hailing distance of first place in the AL East.  So, let me project the Rays into the MLB Playoffs and suppose for a moment that the team gets hot in October and makes it to the World Series.  What’s the big deal?  The Rays have done that before …

• The Rays home field in 2025 is Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, FL.
• The seating capacity there is 11,026.
• MLB takes tix off the top to spread around to “corporate partners” and political figures who can be useful to MLB and the like.  Suppose that comes to 5000 tix per game.
• That would leave only about 6,000 tix for sale to the public which will make what is left of the Rays’ fanbase feel very badly.

For the record, the smallest paid attendance for a World Series Game was all the way back in Game 5 of the 1908 Series between the Tigers and the Cubs.  Attendance that day was only 6,210.  In the scenario I just posited, the record for the smallest paid attendance could be in jeopardy.

So, here’s the question.  What would be worse:

1. Move the World Series to a large stadium somewhere (Atlanta or Miami are the closest ones) thereby making any and all local Rays’ fans make their way to some “foreign outpost” where they may be outnumbered even in what would nominally be Rays’ home games?
2. Keep the games in Tampa at a minor league facility and deal with the fact that some loyal fans will be left out of the World Series through no fault of their own?

That is one reason that Rob Manfred earns the big bucks …

Moving on …  The NBA Champion Oklahoma City Thunder made a big splash in the offseason already signing Shai Gilgeous-Alesander to a 4-year supermax contract worth $285M.  [Aside:  That works out to just under $870K per regular season game over the contract lifetime.]  SGA won the league MVP in the recently concluded season and was the best player overall in the NBA Playoffs at the ripe old age of 27 – – his birthday is next week.

He was not always a member of the Thunder.  He was drafted by the Hornets who traded him to the Clippers the day after the Draft for Miles Bridges – – who was taken with the pick after him – – and a future second round pick.  He played in LA for one season.  Soon after his rookie season was over, SGA was involved in a trade that now looks about as lopsided as any trade that comes to mind:

• Clippers got: Paul George.  That’s it.
• Thunder got:  SGA and Danilo Gallinari and 5 first round picks from the Clippers and 2 first round pick swaps with the Clippers at the Thunder’s choosing.

It’s painful just looking at that swap this morning …

Switching gears …  Last week, the WNBA announced that it would be expanding by 3 teams between now and 2030.  The WNBA is clearly on the upswing in terms of live attendance figures, TV audiences and sponsorship interest.  Let’s not cat carried away; all those measures are hugely positive for the league, but the WNBA remains a niche sport in the US.  Nonetheless, the league will expand in the following way:

• Cleveland will join the league in 2028
• Detroit will join the league in 2029
• Philly will join the league in 2030.

According to a report I saw on the AP site, each team had to cough up a $250M “expansion fee” to get a seat at the table.  That same report said that 7 other cities bid for franchises but that these three cities won the lottery for this round of expansion.  The other cities were:

1. Austin
2. Charlotte
3. Denver
4. Houston
5. KC
6. Miami
7. St. Louis

It seems to me like a good idea for the WNBA to expand one team at a time.  If there were to be three new teams in the league all in one season, there would be a dispersal of talent that could significantly degrade the product – – and that is exactly what the WNBA must avoid.  All is looking up at the moment regarding the WNBA; they need not stumble now and lose momentum.

Finally, this comment from Pat Summitt:

“We keep score in life because it matters. It counts. It matters. Too many people opt out and never discover their own abilities because they fear failure. They don’t understand commitment.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I was having a phone chat with a former colleague who asked me to explain something to him:

• The prop bet on yards rushing for the 2025 NFL season by Saquon Barkley is in the range of 1300 yards (Over/Under) for the 2026 season.
• Given that Barkley rushed for 2005 yards last  year, why is that so low?

I think there are two answers for that query.  The first one has nothing at all to do with Saquon Barkley or the NFL.  A sportsbook operator is not trying to predict Barkley’s rushing total for 2026; the sportsbook simply wants a “balanced book” meaning they have approximately the same amount bet on the OVER prop as is bet on the UNDER prop.  When the book is balanced, the “house” gets a guaranteed profit based on the vig.  So, each book will move that prop line either up or down to accommodate the betting tread at that book, and that means the bettors are the ones actually determining the line for the prop.

The other answer is history.  Prior to Barkley’s season in 2025, only 8 running backs in NFL history have gained 2000+ yards in a regular season.  Ergo, it is not difficult to look back and ask how those 8 RBs performed in the season following their 2000-yard season.  Chronologically:

1. OJ Simpson:  In 1973, he gained 2003 yards (in only 14 games mind you).  In 1974 he gained 1125 yards.  The differential was minus-878 yards.
2. Eric Dickerson:  In 1984, he gained 2105 yards.  In 1985 he gained 1284 yards.  The differential was minus-821 yards.  Note: He missed 2 games in 1985.
3. Barry Sanders:  In 1997, he gained 2053 yards.  In 1998, he gained 1491 yards.  The differential was minus-562 yards.
4. Terrell Davis:  In 1998, he gained 2008 yards.  In 1999, he gained 211 yards.  The differential was minus-1797 yards.  Note:  He missed 12 games in 1999.
5. Jamal Lewis:  In 2003, he gained 2066 yards.  In 2004, he gained 1006 yards.  The differential was minus-1060 yards.  Note:  He missed 4 games in 2004.
6. Chris Johnson: In 2009, he gained 2006  yards.  In 2010, he gained 1364 yards.  The differential was minus-642 yards.
7. Adrian Peterson:  In 2012, he gained 2097 yards.  In 2013, he gained 1266 yards.  The differential was minus-831 yards.  Note: he missed 2 games in 2013.
8. Derrick Henry:  In 2020, he gained 2027 yards.  In 2021, he gained 937 yards.  The differential was minus-1090 yards.  Note:  He missed 8 games in 2021.

            The historical trend says that there is a significant decline in rushing yardage for a back in the season following a 2000+ yard season.  In five of the eight situations above, the player missed 2 or more games in the next season and Barkley carried the ball 345 times last year and caught 33 passes meaning he was heavily used by the Eagles in their offense in 2024.  The sportsbooks’ lines around 1300 yards for Barkley in 2025 point to a predicted differential of minus-705 yards in 2025.  Note that only two of the previous 2000+ yard rushers declined by fewer than 705 yards.

Staying with NFL news, there was a big trade in the NFL yesterday.

• Dolphins get:  Minkah Fitzpatrick and a 5^th-round pick in 2027
• Steelers get:  Jalen Ramsey, Jonnu Smith and a 7^th-round pick in 2027.

At first, I thought the Steelers pulled off a world-class heist with this deal.  After reflection, I still think the Steelers came out on top in the trade but maybe it is not such a lopsided transaction.  It seems to me that Jalen Ramsey – uber-talented as he is – just might not be the best guy to have on a team.  He has worn out his welcome with 3 teams now and he is going to be 31 years old in the middle of the upcoming season.  Maybe the Dolphins added by subtraction in this deal?

[Aside:  The Steelers are clearly not as concerned about aging DBs as I might be.  In addition to trading for Ramsey, they also acquired free agent Darius Slay this offseason and Slay is 34 years old now.]

Why I think the Steelers still came out ahead is that if you consider that Ramsey and Fitzpatrick are both top-shelf defensive backs and were swapped one for the other, then the Steelers got a good TE for a pick swap two years from now.  I think Jonnu Smith is worth a lot more than a pick swap.

Since I have been focused on NFL stuff today, let me look ahead just a little bit.  When Training Camp starts and teams begin their three Exhibition Games, a recognizable player somewhere will suffer a serious injury.  At that point the narrative will be that those Exhibition Games are more dangerous than they are worth.  Let me take a crack at that:

• I do not enjoy NFL Exhibition Games, but they are necessary to prepare for the real games.  NFL football is choreographed violence and when something is “choreographed” the choreography needs to be “rehearsed”.  Exhibition Games are a necessary evil.
• By the way, players also get injured in Training Camp practice sessions.  They are also necessary evils – – if you assume that “risk of injury” is an “evil”.
• At some point in the narrative, someone will point longingly at Roger Goodell’s offhand suggestion that he would love to see only 2 Exhibition Games and a regular season of 18 games.  The knee jerk reaction to that observation will surely be that the players’ bodies cannot stand that added stress and strain.
• How-Evah, [/Stephen A. Smith] the Canadian Football League has played 2 Exhibition Games and 18 regular season games every year since the mid-1980s without catastrophic results.

The moral of the story here is that this narrative is simply a way to fill time and space until the real season begins in September.

Finally, I’ll close today with this observation by political commentator – – and baseball fan – – George F. Will:

“Football combines two of the worst things in American life. It is violence punctuated by committee meetings.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Dave Parker died over the weekend after and extended period of suffering from Parkinson’s Disease.  Parker would have been inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in about 4 weeks; he was approved for that status by the Veterans’ Committee last winter.  There was a time in the  70s and 80s when Parker was arguably the best player in MLB; he had every skill you could want in a player; his career stretched from 1973 to 1991.  Parker was selected as an All-Star 7 times and won the MVP award in 1978.  Interestingly, he was not an All-Star in the year he won the MVP.

Rest in peace, Dave Parker.

Moving on …  Last week, I noted that the PAC-12 was trying to reconstitute itself and that it has lined up 7 schools to begin conference competition in 2026.  I noted then that all the schools so far were named “Something” State and suggested some possible additions to the list – – one of which was Texas State.  Well, maybe someone was reading that suggestion and thought it made more sense than I intended when I suggested it because the PAC-12 and Texas State are going to join forces in 2026.

Texas State will be the first new member of the reconstituted PAC-12 to join that conference from somewhere other than the Mountain West Conference; Texas State is currently in the Sun Belt conference.  So, of course I went to see if there were other Sun Belt schools named “Something” State who might continue the trend here.  Indeed, there are three more “State Schools” in the Sun Belt conference but there is a geographical downside there.

The letter “P” in the PAC-12 name stands for the word “Pacific” which in the US implies a western locale.  Texas State is located in San Marcos, TX which is about halfway between Austin and San Antonio.  That is not exactly a “western locale” in the country, but if you squint hard enough, you might buy into it.  The other three Sun Belt schools that are “State Schools” are not nearly as easy to justify:

• Appalachian State – – not working for me
• Arkansas State – – need to squint even harder than for Texas State
• Georgia State – – uh, no.

Too bad; I thought there was something there to exploit …  Having said that, do not write any of it off permanently.  Remember:

• Sanford and Cal-Berkley are in the Atlantic Coast Conference  Northern California is 3 time zones away from the Atlantic Coast.
• Northern Illinois will play football in the Mountain West Conference.  There are no mountains anywhere near DeKalb County, IL nor is it “west” in the geography.

Switching gears …  In the world of comedy, they say that timing is everything.  Actually, I think that adage applies to a much larger segment of life than just comedy and a story that broke late last week makes that point.  Malik Beasley is an NBA free agent, and his agent was negotiating a deal with the Pistons that was reported to be for 3 years and in the $40-45M category.  Beasley has been in the NBA since 2016 and has been with 6 different teams; he is a shooting guard who averaged 16.9 points per game in the last regular season.

Here is the “timing issue”.  As that deal was reported to be in the final stages of negotiation, the US District Attorney’s Office in Detroit announced that Beasley is under investigation for gambling on NBA games and prop bets in the 2023/2024 season when Beasley was with the Milwaukee Bucks  I have to stop here to point out that this matter is still under investigation; Beasley has not been charged with anything let alone convicted of something  Nonetheless, the timing here could not have been much worse for Beasley and his agent.  Not surprisingly, the Pistons have broken off any negotiations pending more information and the NBA itself announced that it is “cooperating with the investigation.”

Finally, I started today on a down note – – the passing of Dave Parker.  Let me close today on a much brighter note:

Mel Brooks celebrated his 99^th birthday on Saturday.  May the Schwartz be with him.

  But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I and plenty of other basketball fans have said that the NBA regular season is too long and,  ideally, would be shortened save for the negative financial impact the trimming would have on team revenues.  The NBA itself recognizes that the season is too long because it tries to manufacture interest in its early season games with a concocted in-season tournament.

• Quick Quiz:  No Googling!!  Who won last year’s in-season tournament?

I bring up that old canard of “too long a season” to offer up a new criticism.

• The NBA Playoffs are also too long!

The NBA Playoffs began on April 15; they ended earlier this week; the Playoffs extended over more than two months.  By comparison:

• NFL Playoffs start in early January, and the Super Bowl is mid-February
• MLB Playoffs happen in October and may spill over into November by a day or two.
• The CFP starts just before Christmas and is over in the third week of January.
• March Madness fits into a 4-week calendar window.

So, I am now thinking that two things can be true at the same time.  The NBA regular season is too long AND the NBA Playoffs are similarly too long.  Before anyone accuses me of whistling in the wind, I realize neither the regular season nor the NBA Playoffs are going to be shortened.

Moving on …  There has been a low-level story about the Cincinnati Bengals playing out over the last year or so.  Here is the reset:

• The Bengals and the folks who own their stadium in Cincy have until June 30 to agree to a new lease or the Bengals can then exercise their first of five 2-year extensions to that lease.
• The Bengals want stadium upgrades, and they want the stadium owners to pay for the upgrades.  The Bengals point to upgrades worth $830M.
• Please note that the deadline for this is three days hence.

Yesterday, there was an announcement that the parties have reached a “preliminary agreement”.  The outline of that preliminary agreement would have:

• Upgrades of $470M with $120M of that total coming from the Bengals.
• Lease extension through the end of the 2036 season.
• Bengals get 5 each 2-year extensions as before meaning this deal might obtain until 2046.

This is a “preliminary deal” because the Hamilton (OH) Board of Commissioners has to ratify the deal and allocate the funding.  Reports say that path has been cleared, and the expectation is that the Bengals will be staying in their stadium in Cincy.  Actually, it would be interesting to see what might have happened should no “preliminary agreement” was possible.  If that had been the case, would the Bengals’ franchise itself have become a “free agent” in the sense that it could sign a deal somewhere else?

Staying with NFL news, the league has imposed a 10-game suspension on former Ravens’ kicker, Justin Tucker for violation of the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy.  Tucker has been accused of improper conduct with massage therapists, and the league has investigated those allegations.  The Ravens released Tucker several weeks ago, so he is a free agent but cannot play for the first 10 weeks of the upcoming season.

The Washington Post reports this morning that Tucker will not appeal the suspension and that decision came from a meeting involving league officials, the NFLPA and Tucker’s representatives.  This action by the league does not resolve any other legal issues that exist between Tucker and the therapists who originally alleged his improper behavior(s).

Switching gears …  In MLB, Rays’ shortstop, Wander Franco, was convicted of sexual abuse of a minor in a court in the Dominican Republic.  The abuse happened several years ago when Franco was 21 and the minor child was 14 and according to the charges involved in this matter, Franco paid the girl’s mother.  [Aside:  It is not clear from reporting what the payments were for, but I cannot come up with any scenario where any payments would have been “innocent events”.]  The girl’s mother was also convicted of sexual abuse charges in the matter.

Franco’s sentence is 2 years suspended.  My understanding is that means he will not do jail time now, but the conviction stands and that might be a stumbling block for him to get a “work visa” to come to the US to play baseball for the Rays.  One of the conditions that allows officials to deny US visas is to have been involved in “crimes of moral turpitude”.  I am not an expert in evaluating visa requests, but the case that was just concluded certainly falls into the category of “moral turpitude” in my book.

Finally, I’ll close today with this from Oscar Wilde:

“Some cause happiness wherever they go; others whenever they go.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………