The Sports Curmudgeon

 

Last week was not a particularly interesting week of mythical picking.  I made a selection in all 16 NFL games and the record for the week was 8-7-1.  That is certainly better than a losing record for the week – – but not by much.  As of this morning the record for the season for NFL Mythical Picks is a healthy 127-80-5.

Last week, there were 2 games consigned to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin continued its winning ways going 2-0-0 for the week.  For the season the coin is in a happy place standing at 17-11-2.

The Best Picks from last week were:

• Lions/Giants UNDER 41.  Total score was only 23.
• Colts +4 against Vikes.  Colts won straight up by 4 TDs.
• Panthers +6.5 against Skins.  Panthers won straight up.

The Worst Picks from last week were:

• Jets +2.5 against Dolphins.  Jets lost by 21 points.
• Cards – 2.5 against Saints.  Cards lost straight up.
• Raiders/Chargers OVER 49.  Total score was only 35.

Let me take a moment here for the weekly admonition not to take anything here as the basis for making a real wager on a real NFL game involving real money this week – or any week.  Here is how dumb you would need to be to do something like that:

 

You probably think that the Indians were in North America before the Europeans arrived because the Indians had reservations.

 

General Comments:

 

According to CBSSports.com, the Carolina Panthers with their 6-8 record can still make the playoffs in the NFC if a bunch of teams cooperate.  Here is all that needs to happen:

1. Panthers win out naturally AND
2. Bucs lose out AND
3. Packers lose out AND
4. Saints beat the Bucs and then lose to the Falcons AND
5. Skins win one of their final two games AND tie the other one.

I am not even going to try to verify the calculations made by CBSSports.com here; that would be far more effort than it is worth.  Someone on the staff there has an abundance of spare time.  Oh, and another reason not to verify it is that it is not happening…

The Packers beat the Bears last week 30-27.  The Packers had a comfortable 27-10 lead in the game and looked to be coasting to a win until a Bears’ rally forged a 27-27 tie and forced Aaron Rodgers to need some of his final minute magic to get the winning field goal.  On a bitterly cold Chicago day with the wind blowing (reported wind-chill was minus-15 degrees), Rodgers ignored a calf injury to one leg and a hamstring injury to the other leg and hit Jordy Nelson on a 60-yard bomb.  That set up Mason Crosby to hit the game-winner as the clock hit zero.  Wide-receiver-turned -running-back, Ty Montgomery ran for 162 yards in the game and 2 TDs and the Packers ran for a total of 227 yards in the game.

Meanwhile, the Colts simply dominated the Vikes 34-6.  Does anyone recall when the Vikes were 5-0 and looked as if they would just mosey their way into the playoffs without Adrian Peterson on the strength of their defense?  I suspect the Vikes’ coaches do not.  Last week, the Vikes got Peterson back from his injury rehab and faced the very porous Colts’ defense; it looked like a scripted win for the Vikes – until they teed the ball up for the opening kickoff.  Here is the drive chart for the Vikes’ offense in the first half:

• 3-and-out
• 3-and-out
• 4-and-out
• Fumble lost
• INT
• Fumble lost

Not surprisingly, the Vikes total offensive output for the first half was a miserable 69 yards and zero points.  Meanwhile the Colts took a 27-0 lead to the locker room at halftime and put the game on cruise control for the second half.

Staying with events last week that had impact in the NFC North, the Lions also lost to the Giants by a score of 17-6.  The story of this game was very simple; the Giants’ defense dominated the game again.  The Lions only managed 56 yards rushing for the game and the Giants forced 2 turnovers in the red zone.

The Lions are 9-5 and continue to lead the NFC North.  However, that race just got much more interesting because the Packers are now 8-6 and the Lions and Packers play each other in the final game of the season on New Year’s Day.  If the Packers win and both teams have the same record, the Packers would own the tiebreaker because a win on New Year’s Day would give them a season-sweep of the Lions.

The Colts win over the Vikes kept their playoff hopes alive albeit not in the best of health.  Elsewhere in the AFC South, the Texans beat the Jags 21-20.  The Jags had the game in the bag – – and then the Jags proceeded to barf in the bag.  The Jags led 13-0 despite generating a total of 150 yards on offense for the day thanks to two consecutive INTs thrown by starting QB, Brock Osweiler.  Then backup-QB, Tom Savage, led a comeback.  The Texans trailed by 9 at the start of the 4^th quarter.  The Texans got a field goal and then a game-winning TD on a drive that featured 2 pass interference penalties against the Jags’ defense; neither call was arguable.  In the final two minutes, the Jags had the ball with a chance to win the game but Blake Bortles threw an INT to avoid the victory.  On the day, here is Bortles’ stat line:

• 12 for 28 for 92 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT (the one that ended the game)

This loss was the motivating force for the Jags’ to fire Gus Bradley as the head coach.  His record in almost 4 years in Jax was a miserable 14-48; there is absolutely no reason for the Jags even to consider that he might be their coach for 2017.  But I do have to ask these questions:

1. What will this firing after the 15^th week of the season accomplish?
2. What happened in the Texans game that was any worse than what happened in the weeks before?

Gus Bradley did not throw the INT that ended the game; he is not responsible for the Jags turning the ball over on downs after a 4^th and 1 play in the 4^th quarter.  Looking from a more distant perspective, he is not the guy who signed a bunch of defensive free agents last year leading the Jags to put a defense on the field that ranks 28^th in the league in points allowed.  I just do not understand what harm might have befallen this feeble franchise had he been on the sidelines for the next two meaningless games.

There was turmoil on the other sideline in that game also.  Texans’ coach Bill O’Brien must have channeled Popeye the Sailor in the first half after Brock Osweiler threw two INTs on consecutive possessions.  The thought bubble over his head probably read:

“I’ve had all I can stands; I can’t stands no more!”

Then he chowed down on the spinach; sent Osweiler and his $72M contract to the pine and put Tom Savage into the game.  In addition to guiding the comeback, Savage put up a much more impressive stat line for the game than did Osweiler.  Here, you make the call:

• Osweiler:  6 for 11 for 48 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs
• Savage:  23 for 36 for 260 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs

In the other AFC South game that mattered last week, the Titans beat the Chiefs 19-17.  The Chiefs led 14-0 in the first half and led 17-7 at the start of the 4^th quarter when Andy Reid decided it was time to put the game on ice.  [Actually, the game had been on ice since the kickoff with a temperature of 1 degree and a wind chill of minus-19 degrees at Arrowhead Stadium.]  Reid’s conservatism did not pay dividends here as the Titans scored a field goal, then a TD with a blown 2-point conversion and then another field goal as time expired to win the game.  The game had playoff implications for both teams.  For the Titans, it gave them an 8-6 record putting them in a tie for the moment with the Texans atop the AFC South – with the Colts lurking at 7-7.  The Titans will host the Texans on New Year’s Day in what should be a winner-take-all game.

The Chiefs entered last week on top of the AFC West based on the previous week’s win over the Raiders.  Now they are a game behind the Raiders – but comfortably situated in the wild card race.  They laid an egg last week and now trail the Raiders by one game with two games left.  The “good news” for the Chiefs is that they own the tiebreaker with the Raiders should both teams finish with the same record.  The schedule for both the Chiefs and the Raiders is about the same in terms of difficulty:

• Raiders host Indy and then go to Denver
• Chiefs host Denver and then go to San Diego

Meanwhile, last week the Raiders pulled a victory out of their ears last week beating the Chargers 19-16.  The win assured the Raiders as a participant in the AFC playoffs leaving open only where they might be seeded.  The last time the Raiders made the playoffs was in 2002 and they made it all the way to the Super Bowl in that year.  What I think is important here regarding the Raiders is that their defense seemed to come to life two weeks ago; and then last week, they held the Chargers’ offense to 16 points and 265 yards on offense.

The Chargers are the “anti-Lions” for 2016.

• The Lions have come from behind in the 4^th quarter in 8 of their 9 wins this year.
• The Chargers have led in the 4^th quarter 6 times and then lost the game – as they did last week.

The Broncos lost to the Pats at home last week 16-3.  The defense did its job holding the Pats to 16 points (Other than a shutout loss earlier this season with an injured 3^rd string QB at the helm, that is a TD less than the Pats have scored in any game.).  However, the Broncos’ offense was a no-show – – or perhaps what we saw was the start of the blossoming of the Pats’ “Playoff Defense” for 2016.  Here is a stat to give you an idea what I mean here:

• For the first 5 Broncos’ possessions of the second half, the Pats’ defense held the Broncos to a total of 9 yards.

On the other side of the ball, this is the third consecutive game where the Broncos’ defense has held the opponent to 16 points or less; and yet, the team record in those three games is 1-2.  There were reports of some locker-room discord between the offense and the defense after last week’s game; that may not be camaraderie at the highest level, but it may not be all that unjustified…

Trevor Siemian threw for 94 more yards than Tom Brady did and still the Pats won the game comfortably because the Pats ran the ball against the Broncos’ defense (135 yards) and the Pats throttled the Broncos run game (59 yards).  The loss puts the Broncos record at 8-6 meaning they no longer dominate the second wild card slot in the AFC playoffs.  In fact, they find themselves with the most difficult schedule among the teams in the AFC that aspire to that slot.

As I said earlier, the Panthers are alive in the NFC playoff race but are not going to make it.  If the Broncos also miss the playoffs this year, it will be the first time since the 2002 Super Bowl (Bucs over Raiders) where both teams missed the playoffs in the next year.

The Pats’ win guaranteed that the Pats are the AFC East champions for the 8^th year in a row and it also assured that the Pats will have a BYE in the first week of the playoffs for the 7^th consecutive year.  Moreover, the Pats have now assured that they have won 12 or more games in each season since 2010.  Somebody must be doing something right in Foxboro…

Elsewhere in the AFC East, the Dolphins held a meager 13-10 lead at halftime over the Jets and then ran away in the second half to win the game 34-13.  The Jets had more offense in the game but it did not matter; a blocked punt that resulted in a Dolphins’ TD early in the 3^rd quarter opened the flood gates and the Jets had no way to stop the flow.  The Dolphins started Matt Moore at QB for the injured Ryan Tannehill; all he did was to throw 4 TD passes (first time in his career he ever did that in a single game) and 1 INT.  The last time Matt Moore started a game was in January 2012; it was against the Jets; the Dolphins won that game too.

The Dolphins’ defense simply pummeled Bryce Petty who eventually had to leave the game with an injury leaving Ryan Fitzpatrick to come into the game to administer “last rites” to the Jets’ effort for the day.  I use the term “last rites” purposely here.  Once again, it sure looked to me as if the Jets as a team – and their OL in particular – were just going through the motions in the second half of this game.  If other folks see what I saw and interpret it in the same way, then maybe there is a coaching problem with the Jets.  When a team gets beat because the opponent is a better team, one should accept that as “inevitable”.  When a team comes out and gets behind and “tosses in the towel”, that is whole different situation.

The Bills beat the Browns 33-13 in a humongously meaningless game – save for the fact that it might have been the Browns’ first win of the year.  The problem was that the outcome was never really in doubt save for a fleeting moment or so in the first half when the Browns managed to tie the score at 3-3.  LeSean McCoy led the way for the Bills gaining 153 yards rushing in the game to go along with 2 TDs.  RG3 came close to getting 200 yards passing despite being sacked 5 times in the game; but the game was completely uninteresting from about the 4-minute mark of the first quarter when the Bills took a 10-3 lead.

The Steelers beat the Bengals 24-20 last week to stay in charge of the AFC North race.  The Bengals had a comfy lead in this game and the Steelers could not get into the end zone for the first half of the game.  In fact, they only got 1 TD all day long – and missed a 2-point conversion on that occasion.  Not to worry though; the Bengals resorted to self-immolation in the style that the Bengals have perfected over the past couple of years.  On the drive that led to the only TD of the day for the Steelers, the Bengals committed penalties on 4 consecutive plays each of which resulted in a first down:

1. Jumped offside to give the Steelers a first down (5 yards)
2. Defensive holding (5 yards)
3. Defensive holding – same defender (5 yards)
4. Unnecessary roughness (15 yards)

Ten years ago, if I told you a team had that sort of defensive sequence, you would have guessed it was the Raiders.  Today, it could only be the Bengals…

The Bengals’ offense was AWOL in the second half.  After scoring 20 points in the first half, the Bengals total offense in the second half was 38 yards.  Please note that on that penalty-laden Steelers’ drive for a TD, the Bengals amassed 30 yards in penalties.  Just to be clear, that is not a winning strategy…

This game was telecast into the DC area last week and I want to say that the Bengals’ fans stayed away in droves.  As the teams were setting up for the 2^nd half kickoff, the TV shots had half of the stands in view for an extended period of time.  My estimate is that 75% of the seats were empty in those camera shots…

The Ravens kept the pressure on the Steelers beating the Eagles 27-26 last week.  This game was also telecast into the DC area and I was very surprised to see the Eagles’ offense do business against a very good Ravens’ defense.  In fact, the Ravens entered the game with the #1 run defense in the NFL allowing only 76 yards per game.  Last week the Eagles ran the ball for 169 yards averaging 4.5 yards per carry.  This week, the Ravens (8-6) take on the Steelers (9-5) on Christmas Day.  If the Ravens win here, they will lead the AFC North based on tiebreakers.

In other NFC East action, the Cowboys maintained their lead in the division getting back on the winning track over the Bucs 26-20.  This win belongs to the Cowboys’ defense after holding the Bucs to 276 yards on offense and generating 4 turnovers in the game.  In the 4^th quarter, the Bucs had 5 possessions and those possessions produced a total of 14 yards of offense.  I want to present to you Dak Prescott’s stat line and then ask a question:

• 32 for 36 for 279 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs and 1 TD rushing

Question:  What do the folks who were clamoring for Tony Romo to start this game after the Cowboys’ loss two weeks ago, have to say now?

On Monday night, the Panthers beat the Skins 26-15.  To call the Skins’ performance a bed-wetting would not be nearly strong enough.  They soiled their bedding through every orifice of the human anatomy.  The Skins managed 29 yards rushing on 13 carries and that included an 11-yard run by Kirk Cousins that was not designed as a running play and they were a miserable 2 for 12 on 3^rd down conversions.  Making this even worse, the Panthers had their star middle linebacker on the sidelines in street clothes for the game.  On defense the Skins had three problems:

1. They could not stop the run.
2. They did not cover receivers well.
3. They did not tackle well.

Other than that, the defense was just fine…

The Skins are now 7-6-1; they are still in the playoff race but they need teams ahead of them to lose a game while the Skins win out.

The Falcons beat the Niners 41-13.  The game was as uninteresting as the score indicates.  Here is all you have to know about this game.  The Falcons ran the ball for 248 yards on their way to amassing 550 yards of total offense on a patently inept Niners’ defense.

The Saints beat the Cards 48-41 last week.  Both coaches must have decided to give the defensive starters the day off because the Saints had 488 yards on offense and the Cards had 425 yards on offense. The Saints were 9 for 14 on 3^rd down conversions.   Both teams ran for more than 100 yards in the game; Drew Brees threw 4 TD passes and Carson Palmer threw 2.  I hope the fans had an entertaining time watching this game because it had exactly no meaning unto itself.

The first game of last week was the Seahawks clobbering of the Rams 24-3.  The Seahawks won the NFC West with this victory and the game showed pretty clearly that the Rams’ poor showing in the past few weeks had less to do with Jeff Fisher as the head coach than it had to do with the talent on the field.  The Rams were sleepwalking through most of the game; it sure looked to me as if the Rams’ players figured the optimal outcome would be not to get injured and to be early in line to cash their paycheck for the game.  The Rams’ total offense for the game was 183 yards which is not good; however, going into the 4^th quarter trailing 17-3, the Rams’ total offense to that point was 90 yards.  That is way less than “not good”; 30 yards per quarter is abysmal.

There is an example from this game of why you should look at stats a bit more carefully than just the total numbers sometimes.  Todd Gurley was clearly the focus of the Seahawks’ defense last week; they were out to stop him cold.  He carried the ball 14 times for 38 yards; and if you look at those numbers, you would say that the Seahawks’ defense achieved their objective (2.7 yards per carry).  But they did an even better job than that.  Gurley had 1 run of 22 yards in the game.  That means the Seahawks’ defense held him to 16 yards on his other 13 carries.  Todd Gurley is a very good RB; stifling him to that extent is most praiseworthy for the Seahawks’ defense.

 

The Games:

 

Of the 16 games this week, only 4 of them involve teams that have no real Playoff pressure on them.  You can drop that number to 3 games if you allow that the Pats have pressure on them to beat the Jets to maintain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Picking the worst game of the week is not hard on this menu; picking the Game of the Week was much more difficult.

 

(Thurs Nite) Giants – 2.5 at Philly (42):  The Giants have not clinched a playoff spot in the NFC despite their 10-4 record; the Eagles have lost 5 games in a row but their home record is still 4-2 for the season.  Given that peek into the standings, one might think the spread here should be bigger but Eagles/Giants games tend to be close games and this one shapes up to be a defensive game.  I like this game to stay UNDER.

 

(Sat Afternoon) Washington – 3 at Chicago (46.5):  The Skins must win to remain “playoff relevant” and the Bears have been out of playoff contention since the start of October.  This season the bears lost 3 games then won a game; after that, they lost 3 games then won a game; after that, they lost 3 games then won a game.  In this cycle, they have lost 2 games so the trend says they are due to lose this one.  What the Skins must realize is that their defense is not nearly good enough to carry the team for 60 minutes.  That means the offense has to be in gear and playing efficiently from the start of the game – something the team has not done consistently of late.  I think the coaches will have the team ready to play from the start; I like the Skins to win and cover on the road.  Having made that selection, I went looking for a trend that would make it look as if I had been shrewd; I found two such trends:

• Skins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games between these 2 teams.

 

(Sat Afternoon) Miami at Buffalo – 4 (41):  The Dolphins have the 6^th seed in the AFC playoffs as of this morning but they cannot afford a loss; the Bills trail 7 other AFC teams who aspire to that 6^th playoff slot.  Translation:  The Bills ain’t gonna make it.  Weather.com is calling for rain with temps in the 30s and 18 mph winds; I do not need a degree in meteorology or climatology to recognize that is not Miami weather.  The Dolphins are the better team and they need this game; yet, the Bills are favored at home without blizzard conditions in the forecast.  I do not understand this line.  I’ll take the Dolphins plus the points.

 

(Sat Afternoon) Tampa at New Orleans – 3 (52.5):  The Bucs need this game to stay “playoff relevant” and perhaps even to catch the Falcons in the NFC South if the Falcons were to lose in Seattle this week.  The Saints can make vacation plans for January.  The problem for the improving Bucs’ defense is that Drew Brees came to life last week after two straight bed-wetting performances; when Drew Brees is hot, the Saints can score points by the bushel and keep up with opponents despite the Saints’ defense which allows 28 points per game ranking 30^th in the NFL ahead of only the sorry-assed Niners and Browns.  I will turn this game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin says to take the Bucs plus the points.

 

(Sat Afternoon) Atlanta – 3 at Carolina (52):  The spread opened the week at 1 point and has climbed slowly all week long.  The Panthers appeared to come to life on Monday night beating the Skins on the road; in particular, the Panthers ran the ball well and controlled the clock and the game.  The Falcons’ defense is not the team strength so if the Panthers can maintain that sort of offensive play, they can control the clock here and keep the very potent Falcons’ offense on the bench.  It worked for the Panthers on Monday; can they do it again on a short week?  I think they can; I’ll take the Panthers plus the points.  Here is a pair of opposing trends for this game:

• Falcons are 7-1 to go OVER in their last 8 games on a Saturday.
• Panthers are 7-3 to go UNDER in their last 10 Games in December.
• This game is on a Saturday in December …

 

(Sat Afternoon) Minnesota at Green Bay – 7 (43):  The Packers are the 6^th seed in the NFC playoff picture as of this morning.  If they win out, they will win the NFC North; if they lose a game, they will be in a huge jumble to make the playoffs.  A win for the Vikes here would put them ahead of the Packers in the NFC North standings based on a tiebreaker.  The Packers are playing well and their defense is improving over the past several weeks.  The Vikes’ offense has been downright awful for a while now.  In their last 9 games, the Vikes have scored more than 20 points exactly twice – and one of those times was against the Jags so maybe that doesn’t even count.  I’ll go with the hot team here – even though there will not be frigid weather conditions on Saturday – and take the Packers to win and cover at home.

 

(Sat Afternoon) Jets at New England – 16.5 (44):  I hate double-digit spreads in NFL games.  This spread opened the week at 14 points and is ascending to nosebleed levels.  I found the spread at 17 points at two Internet sportsbooks this morning.  The Pats’ motivation here is to maintain home-field advantage in the playoffs; as of this morning, the Pats have a 1-game lead over the Raiders for that position but in the case of a tie between the Pats and the Raiders, the nod will go to the Raiders.  The Jets’ motivation here is that this game brings them one game closer to the end of this miserable season which started with some lofty expectations.  Weather.com predicts a 100% chance of rain with temperatures in the 30s and 11 mph winds.  The Jets’ offense does not need adverse weather conditions to hold it down.  I’ll take this game to stay UNDER.

 

(Sat Afternoon) Tennessee – 4.5 at Jax (44):  The Titans are in the playoff picture; they are tied with the Texans in the AFC South and could win the division; their 8-6 record puts them in a position to get a wildcard slot if the Dolphins take gas in the last two games.  The Titans are relevant and that has not been something one could say in late December for several years not.  The Jags on the other hand are just miserable.  Consider that the Jags rank 7^th in the NFL in total defense (sounds good) but they also rank 28^th in the NFL in points allowed per game (not so good).  On offense, the Jags are far more balanced; they are 28^th in the NFL in total offense and 27^th in the NFL in points per game.  Tennessee is the better team and they should have plenty of motivation here.  The Hollywood ending for the Jags would be for their new coach to give them a “Knute Rockne speech” that kicks their performance into high gear and they win this game.  The problem is that this game is being played in Jax and not Hollywood.  I like the Titans to win and cover on the road.

 

(Sat Afternoon) San Diego – 5.5 at Cleveland (43.5):  Here is a game where neither team has anything to play for other than pride.  The Browns need a win – any sort of a win; the Chargers do not want to be “that team” – the one that loses to the team that sure-as-heck looks like an 0-16 team.  In case you are wondering why this is not the Dog-Breath Game of the Week, be patient…  Since I do not care about the outcome here one way or the other, I will turn this over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin says to take the game to go OVER.  For the record, the coin is bucking a couple of meaningless trends:

• Chargers are 12-3-1 to go UNDER in their last 16 games in December.
• Browns are 13-3 to go UNDER in their last 16 games in Week 16.
• So, there…

 

(Sat Afternoon) Indy at Oakland – 3 (52.5):  Both of these teams win on offense.  Both defenses are mediocre at best but both have been improving over the last several weeks.  Neither has improved to the degree that I would call them “good” but they are improved.  Nevertheless, I see a shootout happening here.  I’ll take the game to go OVER.

 

(Sat Afternoon) SF at LA – 4 (40):  Your patience has been rewarded.  This is clearly and unequivocally The Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  This is the first year of the Rams’ return to LA and this is the game on the docket for Christmas Eve.  That is the NFL’s “War on Christmas”.  These teams stink and nothing that happens this weekend is going to change that.  The Niners won the first meeting between these two teams in the opening weekend of the NFL season; since then the Niners have lost 13 straight games.  The Rams “recovered” from that shellacking to the point that they won 4 games but they also managed to get their coach fired based on their sparking play.  The “new coach” showed how valuable his insights are last week putting all of 3 points on the scoreboard against the Seahawks.  Do not watch this game – unless you tune in momentarily to see if the stands in LA are more than 40% full.  Do not wager on this game under any circumstances.  Only because I said I would make a pick in every game, I’ll take the Niners plus the points.  I am really going against the trends with this pick:

• Niners are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against the NFC.
• Niners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
• Niners are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on the road.
• Here they are on the road, playing on grass against an NFC opponent…

 

(Sat Afternoon) Arizona at Seattle – 7.5 (43):  As of this morning, the Seahawks are the #2 seed in the NFC playoffs meaning they get a home game and a BYE week.  Holding onto that position should be sufficient motivation for the team.  The “home game” would seem to be important to the Seahawks; they are 7-0 at home (the only NFL team undefeated at home) and they are only 2-4-1 on the road. The Cards began the season with Super Bowl aspirations but now see the final two games from the perspective that they are going to finish below .500.  I do not like that half-point hook on top of the TD spread, but I do not like the Cards even more.  I’ll take the Seahawks at home and lay the points.

 

(Sat Nite) Cincy at Houston – 1 (41.5):  This line opened the week at 3 points and it has dropped to this level at most of the sportsbooks this morning.  There is one sportsbook that has this as a “pick ‘em” game.  The money is obviously going the Bengals’ way but I have no idea why.  The Bengals have nothing to play for and this is a team that needs no incentive to “lose focus”.  The Texans need the win to stay on top of the AFC South and will know the outcome of the Titans/Jags game well before kickoff (likely a Titans’ win).  I really do not like either team here but I will go with the home team and the team that has a reason to play hard for 60 minutes.  I’ll take the Texans and lay the point.

 

(Sun Afternoon) Baltimore at Pittsburgh – 5 (44.5):  This is the Game of the Week.  As Keith Jackson was wont to say:

This game comes down to the big uglies in the trenches.

The stakes are simple.  The Ravens are a game behind the Steelers but a Ravens’ win would put them in first place in the AFC North on tiebreakers.  The Steelers are at home and are on a 5-game win streak.  Since their loss to the Ravens in early November where they scored only 14 points, the Steelers have gone 5-1 and have scored 24 points or more in each game.  Having LeVeon Bell in game condition for all those games surely contributed to the improved offensive output.  Weather should not be a factor here but I do think that both defenses will be primed to stifle the opposing offenses.  I like this game to stay UNDER.

 

(Sun Nite) Denver at KC – 3 (37):  The Chiefs lost a game last week that they should not have lost (see above).  The Broncos lost a game last week that accentuated their offensive weaknesses.  The Chiefs have the first AFC wildcard slot in the playoffs as of this morning.  The Broncos are not in the playoffs as of this morning and find themselves in a pack of teams hoping that the dolphins implode so one of the pack can sneak into that 6^th seed position.  A loss for the Broncos would be far more severe than a loss for the Chiefs.  The Broncos’ offensive woes begin with the fact that they do not run the ball well (27^th in the NFL in yards per game).  That puts the offensive burden on the passing game and while Trevor Siemian is not a stiff, he is not a top-shelf QB that can go out and throw for 375 yards in any given game.  The ray of hope for the Broncos in this game is that the Chiefs’ run defense is not all that good; it ranks 28^th in the league in terms of yards per game allowed.  If Denver can run the ball effectively, they can win this game; if not, I think they are doomed.  I am turning the game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin says to take the Chiefs and lay the points.

 

(Mon Nite) Detroit at Dallas – 7.5 (44):  The Total Line opened the week at 41 points and has been climbing all week.  I think the folks who got down on the OVER early this week had it right; I see both teams capable of getting 24 points or more on the board.  I like the way the Lions manage to stay close in almost every game; last week’s loss by 11 points is their only loss by more than a TD; in fact, 4 of their 5 losses have been by a total of 18 points.  I will make two picks in this game.  I like the Lions plus the points – particularly with that half-point hook.  In addition, I like this game to go OVER.

 

Finally, here is a definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Wikipedia:  An online adventure in higher learning where the entry for the Second World War is likely to be several paragraphs shorter than the one on “The Brady Bunch”.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

 

Last week was not a successful one for mythical picking.  I made 15 selections – you will recall there were no lines for the Titans/Broncos game at the time I made my picks – and the record for the week was 7-8-0.  The season record now stands at 119-73-4.

There were 2 Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Games last week and the coin went 1-1-0.  For the season the coin is performing slightly better than one might expect from a coin flip; overall the coin is now 15-11-2.

There weren’t any really good picks from last week but the “Best Picks” from last week’s sorry lot were:

• Cards/Dolphins OVER 43.5.  Total score was 49.
• Bengals -5 over Browns.  Bengals won by 13.

The Worst Picks from last week were:

• Saints/Bucs OVER 51.  Total score was only 27.
• Cowboys -3 against Giants.  Cowboys lost straight up.
• Colts -6 against Texans.  Colts lost straight up.

Naturally, no one should even think about using any information here as the basis for making a real wager on a real NFL game involving real money; these are – after all – Mythical Picks.  Only a dummy would do anything like that; in fact, that dummy would probably also try to kill a mockingbird by throwing it off a cliff.

 

General Comments:

 

The NFL’s TV ratings have gone back up; last Sunday night’s game was the highest rated game this year and was the highest rated program on TV in the last 3 weeks according to the folks who do TV ratings.  Two months ago, there were analyses and prognostications that blamed the decline in ratings on concern over concussions and too much “league parity”; other folks thought that the Presidential campaigns had brought on a degree of “TV fatigue” for viewers.  Given the rebound in NFL ratings after the election, my guess is that the “TV fatigue factor” was more important than the concern over concussions or quality of play.  Not that it really matters which was more correct …

Last week, the Chiefs beat the Raiders 21-13.  The Raiders were the top team in the AFC when the game kicked off; they had the same record as the Pats but would have a better tie-breaker than the Pats had it come down to those two teams angling for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  This loss takes the Raiders out of the lead in the AFC West and puts them in the position as the lead dog in the race for the AFC wild card slots.  That is a big drop for a single loss.

Tyreek Hill had a punt return for a TD and a 36-yard TD reception in the span of a couple of minutes in the second quarter to give the Chiefs a 21-10 lead at halftime.  The second half was a defensive game all the way; the Chiefs made life miserable for Derek Carr (117 yards passing for the game); that was the worst game I have seen him play.  On the flip side of the coin for Raiders’ fans, that was the best performance I have seen from the Raiders D-line in several years; they held the Chiefs to only 65 yards on the ground.

The Chiefs are on top of the AFC West as of this morning but they did lose LB, Derrick Johnson to an Achilles’ tendon injury in the game.  That could be a significant loss for the Chiefs over the rest of this regular season and into the playoffs.

The Titans beat the Broncos 13-10 in a game that had significance in the AFC South and the AFC West races.  The Titans win puts them above .500 at 7-6 which is the same record that the Texans have.  For now, the Texans lead the division based on tie-breakers but the two teams will meet head-to-head in the final week of the season (Jan 1, 2017).  The Titans won this game despite a dreary performance by QB Marcus Mariota against the Broncos’ defense; here is his stat line:

• 6 for 20 for 88 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs

Remember, that was the WINNING QB’s stat line…

The Broncos’ OL continued to be a weak link allowing the run game to amass the grand total of 18 yards on 9 carries.  That is why the team called 51 pass attempts by Trevor Siemian; that sort of offensive imbalance with that sort of offensive firepower is not a successful strategy.

This loss puts the Broncos in a bad situation.  They trail both the Raiders and the Chiefs by 2 games in the AFC West with only 3 games left to play.  That is a bad situation all by itself, but if you check the schedule, the Broncos have the most difficult schedule over the final 3 games of any team in the NFL:

• This week:  Vs. Pats who are 11-2 at the moment
• Next week:  At Chiefs who are 10-3 at the moment
• Final week:  Vs. Raiders who are 10-3 at the moment

Combined record for the final 3 opponents is 31-8.  OUCH!

The Texans beat the Colts last week by a score of 22-17.  This puts the Texans on top of the AFC South and leaves the Colts a game behind the Texans and the Titans in that divisional race.  The keys for the Texans victory here were Lamar Miller running for 107 yards and the defense forcing 3 turnovers in the game.  Once again, the Texans won despite an uninspiring performance by Brock Osweiler (14 for 24 for 147 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT).

The AFC South is not a good division; there are surely no “great teams” there and it would be generous to say that the teams at or near the top are anything better than “decent” but the AFC South does have something going for it.  The Texans, Titans and Colts are within a game of each other and only one of the three teams is likely to make the playoffs.  That means the games involving those teams should be interesting because they matter.

The Steelers beat the Bills 27-20.  The game was not really as close as the score might indicate; the Bills got two late TDs when it really did not matter.  LeVeon Bell ran for 236 yards on the Bills’ defense; that is not something one might expect from a defense under the tutelage of the Ryan brothers.  Bell’s dominance overcame a bad game from Ben Roethlisberger who – uncharacteristically – threw 3 INTs in that game.  The Steelers’ defense pitched in too sacking Tyrod Taylor 5 times.

Even before the game began, there were reports based on rumors that Rex Ryan would be fired in Buffalo.  I have no inside info on any of that but I do know that he is still the coach of the Bills as of this morning.  However, since these rumors were put out there, let me give you an overview of some of the realities that underpin Ryan’s position:

1. He is in the second year of a 5-year contract worth $27M.  If he is fired at the end of the 2016 season, the Bills will still owe him about $16M.  His record so far in Buffalo has been 14-15.
2. As noted above, the defense is not what you would expect from a Rex Ryan team.  The Bills rank 18^th in total defense; 17^th in points allowed and 28^th in rushing yards allowed.
3. The Bills’ offense is not good enough to do much better than “break even” with those sorts of defensive stats.  Tyrod Taylor is not a franchise QB; the team needs an upgrade at QB more than it needs an upgrade at head coach.
4. The other 2 QBs on the Bills’ depth chart this morning are EJ Manuel and Cardale Jones.  Both look like a downgrade compared to Tyrod Taylor to me…

The Bengals beat the Browns 23-10.  RG3 was the starting QB for the Browns and various game reports said that the Browns were trying to run a “high school offense” dominated by “gadget plays” in the game.  Well, if that was the case, it surely did not work.  Here is RG3’s stat line:

• 12 for 28 for 104 yards with) TDs and 1 INT

At halftime, the Bengals led 20-0 and RG3’s stats were 2 for 10 for 20 yards and 1 INT.  I know; he has not played since the first game of the season; it would be unreasonable to expect him to “light it up” in his first game back.  Nevertheless, what he did was stink out the joint on a team that has specialized in stinking out every joint they have played in all year long.

The Browns are 3-31 since the end of the 2014 season; they have 3 games left to avoid an 0-16 season in 2016.  Here are those games:

• This week: At Buffalo.  If the Bills lose, Rex Ryan may need a flak jacket.
• Next week: Vs. San Diego.  Chargers’ coach is in trouble already …
• Final Week: At Pitts.  It would be a “Hollywood ending” if the Browns win here.

Before the Bengal/Browns game, Bob Molinaro had this comment in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot.  He may be on to something here:

“Begin countdown: Now that Robert Griffin III has recovered from his shoulder injury and will start Sunday for the Browns against the Bengals, what’s the over-under on how many games he’ll play before getting banged up again? Or are we wagering by the quarter now?”

The Pats beat the Ravens 30-23 last week.  The win puts the Pats in the driver’s seat for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and the loss drops the Ravens a game behind the Steelers in the AFC North race.  Joe Flacco threw for 324 yards and 2 TDs in this game and was overshadowed significantly by Tom Brady’s performance of 406 yards and 3 TDs.  The Ravens trailed 23-3 about half way through the 3^rd quarter and it looked as if the Pats would coast home until …

1. The Pats had a punt hit the returner’s leg and it was recovered inside the Pats’ 5 yardline.  The Ravens got a quick TD here.
2. On the ensuing kickoff, the returner fumbled the ball and the Ravens recovered in the red zone.  That produced another quick TD and closed the scoring gap to 23-17.

The Ravens’ defense ranked 1^st in the NFL in yards allowed per game (296.1 yards per game) at kickoff.  The Pats’ offense last week was a whopping 496 yards against a very good defense …

The Lions beat the Bears 20-17.  The Lions “returned to form this week”; they won after trailing in the 4^th quarter of the game; that is their 8^th comeback in the 4^th quarter in their 9 wins this year.  The Bears got the lead with a Pick Six on Lions’ QB, Matthew Stafford but they could not hold that lead.  The Bears are now 3-9 and will be drafting early next April.

The Vikes beat the Jags 25-16.  Sam Bradford was 24 for 34 for 292 yards and 1 TD in the game.  The score could have been a whole lot worse:

• Vikes had the ball at the Jags’ 1 yardline but could not get a TD and turned the ball over on downs.
• Vikes had the ball at the Jags’ 1 yardline once again but turned the ball over on a fumble.

The Jags are now 0-6 at home this year.  In this game, they led 16-12 at the start of the 4^th quarter but managed to invent ways to lose another home game…

The Packers beat the Seahawks 38-10.  Yes, it was that much of a shellacking; the Packers intercepted 5 passes in the game.  Aaron Rodgers played with a limp for the game with a “calf injury” but it sure did not affect his throwing arm or his accuracy.  He threw for 3 TDs and 246 yards in the game.  I could not tell if Rodgers’ passing effectiveness was due to the absence of Earl Thomas in the secondary or not; if it was, the Seahawks are in big trouble unless they “coach-up” a substitute very quickly.  Here is an interesting stat:

• Aaron Rodgers has won his last 15 games at home in the month of December.

The Lions have a 2-game lead on both the Vikes and the Packers in the NFC North this morning.  The remaining schedule for those teams is interesting:

• The Lions have to play the Giants and the Cowboys before meeting the Packers head-to-head in the final game of the season.
• The Packers and Vikes play each other next week.
• The Vikes play a desperate Colts’ team this week.

The Bucs beat the Saints 16-11.  I thought this game would be a shoot-out; that was not even close to correct.  Two weeks ago, Drew Brees threw 3 INTs in a game and did not throw a TD pass.  Last week in Mythical Picks, I said directly that would not happen again.  Well, in the game against the Bucs, Brees threw 3 INTs and 0 TDs.  Once again, I was abjectly incorrect…

The Dolphins beat the Cards 26-23.  The Cards managed to find a way to throw this game away:

• The Cards missed a field goal.
• The Cards missed 2 PAT attempts.
• One of the missed PATs was returned for 2 points on the Dolphins’ ledger.
• The Cards threw 2 INTs
• The Cards lost a fumble.

Dolphins’ QB, Ryan Tannehill had to leave the game with an injured knee.  It turns out not to be as bad as it looked; he did not tear any ligaments in his knee; he only suffered a “bad sprain”; no timetable for his return is out there but reports are that he will not play this week.

The Panthers beat the Chargers 28-16.  The Chargers turned the ball over 5 times in the game and allowed Philip rivers to be sacked 5 times in the game.  Melvyn Gordon and Joey Bosa both had to leave the game for the Chargers.  It is amazing the score was this close…

The Skins beat the Eagles 27-22.  On the stat sheet, Carson Wentz got the better of Kirk Cousins throwing for 314 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.  However, that INT came with the ball on the Skins’ 3 yardline and if the Eagles score a TD there, the complexion of the game would have changed significantly.  The win keeps the Skins in the wild card race in the NFC, but things are complicated there.

The Giants beat the Cowboys 10-7.  As the score indicates, this game was dominated by defense from start to finish.  Back in my pre-season analysis, I said that I was unimpressed with the way the Giants had spent lots of money to shore up its defense in free agency.  Well those free agents have been playing really well recently and they were outstanding against the Cowboys here.  The Giants’ defense held the Cowboys to 1 for 15 on third down conversions.  The Giants’ defense was good enough to overcome a poor performance from Eli Manning who threw 2 INTs and lost a fumble in the game.

The Giants’ defense also shut down Dez Bryant.  He did not catch a pass until very late in the 4^th quarter and then he promptly fumbled that ball and lost it to the Giants.  That allowed the Giants to run the clock out and preserve a 3-point win.

The Cowboys have secured a slot in the NFC playoffs; the Giants lead the NFC wild card race as of this morning.  These teams might see each other for a 3^rd time this season sometime in January…

The Falcons beat the Rams 42-14.  The Falcons led 42-0 at the start of the 4^th quarter and pumped the brakes for the final 15 minutes.  The game had an inauspicious start for the Rams.  On the opening kickoff, the ball hit the returner in the facemask and the Falcons recovered the ball at the Rams’ 3 yardline.  With only 10 seconds expired in the game, the team kicking off had a 7-0 lead.  Then things got worse…

• Over the course of the game, the Rams turned the ball over 5 times – one of which was a Pick Six and another of which was a Scoop and Score.

In the stinker of the week, the Jets rallied to beat the Niners 23-17 in OT.  Making fans sit through OT in this game comes close to being a human rights violation.  The Niners led the game 14-0 after 1 quarter and held a 17-3 lead with 5 minutes left in the game.  Then they invented a way to forge a tie with the Jets at the end of regulation play and a way to lose in OT.  The Niners recorded 6 sacks on Bryce Petty and still managed to lose the game.

Petty started at QB for the Jets and was OK.  He threw for 265 yards and only 1 INT.  Colin Kaepernick was the Niners’ QB and he was awful (15 for 26 for 116 yards).  The Niners entered the game with the worst run defense in the NFL; the Jets ran the ball 40 times for 188 yards.  If I were a conspiracy theorist – which I am not – I would wonder about this:

• Are the Niners actually trying to be the worst team in the NFL just in case the Browns accidently win a game?
• This is the 3^rd game this year that the Niners have led by 14 points and then coughed it up.

 

The Games:

 

(Thurs Nite) LA at Seattle – 15.5 (39):  I hate double-digit spreads in NFL games.  Somehow, the Rams have beaten the Seahawks the last 3 times these teams have met including a 9-3 win back in September of this year.  I do not see the Rams doing much on offense in this game; if they are going to keep it close, it will be the play of the Rams’ DL (team’s best unit) dominating the Seahawks’ OL (team’s worst unit).  Only because I said would make a pick in every game, I’ll take the Seahawks to win and cover at home.  Looking for some solace in that pick, here are some meaningless trends that support my choice:

• Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games against teams win a winning record
• Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in Seattle.

So there…

 

(Sat Nite) Miami – 2.5 at Jets (37.5):  Even if the starting QBs were Ryan Tannehill and Ryan Fitzpatrick, this game would not be at the top of my list of interesting contests.  Neither Ryan will start here; this will be a “showdown” between Matt Moore and Bryce Petty.  I will try to maintain composure…  Since neither QB projects to be dominant here, it behooves me to look at the run defenses because both teams will probably try to run the ball until the defense forces them to do something else:

• Jets are 17^th in the NFL giving up 102.5 yards per game
• Dolphins are 28^th in the NFL giving up 133.8 yards per game.

Neither team is a scoring machine; the Dolphins score 21.6 points per game which does not sound like much until you realize that the Jets score 17.6 points per game.  Weather.com says it will rain on Saturday with perhaps 1-3 inches of snow.  That is not “Miami weather”.  I’ll take the Jets plus the points at home.

 

(Sun Nite) Tampa at Dallas – 7 (47):  The Cowboys are on a nationally televised game again; Jerry Jones loves it.  This is a big game for the Bucs; right now, they are tied with the Falcons for the NFC South lead.  The Bucs are riding a 5-game win streak and it has been their defense that has made that happen.  Over the last 5 games, the Bucs have allowed only 64 points.  Conversely, this game is less important to the Cowboys who hold a 2-game lead over the Giants in the NFC East and own the best record in the conference.  Moreover, the Cowboys’ high performance offense has sputtered in its last two games scoring a total of only 24 points.  Is this because defensive coordinators have gotten more data on Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott?  If so, the Tampa defensive braintrust probably has access to and a sound analysis of that same data…  Purely a hunch; I think the Bucs will keep this game close so I’ll take them plus the points here.

 

Detroit at Giants – 4 (41):  This game was a contender for the Game of the Week because this game is important to both sides.  The Giants will not guarantee themselves a playoff slot with a win here but it would put them in a very comfortable position.  The same thing goes for the Lions regarding their NFC North division championship.  I expect both teams to put it on the line here.  Matthew Stafford injured a finger on his throwing hand in last week’s win over the Bears and the weather in New Jersey on Sunday will be a carryover from the messy weather the Jets will play in on Saturday night.  I think this will be a low scoring affair so I’ll take the game to stay UNDER.

 

Philly at Baltimore – 5.5 (41):  I really do not like the Eagles’ offense against the Ravens’ defense; I think that is a mismatch.  I’ll take the Ravens to win and cover.

 

Green Bay – 5.5 at Chicago (39):  The spread opened at 6.5 points and settled in here pretty quickly.  The Total Line opened at 44 and has been dropping all week; check the weather forecast at the end of this selection.  Even though he limped through the game last week, Aaron Rodgers will be the better QB on the field in this game.  The Packers need to win out to have a good chance at the playoffs and I just do not see them coughing up this game against a 3-9 Bears team that just isn’t very good.  I’ll take the Packers to win and cover.   Oh, by the way, weather.com says that it will be sunny on Sunday in Chicago with a high temperature of zero followed by minus-15 degrees over Sunday night with 15 mph winds.  Can you spell frostbite…?

 

Indy at Minnesota – 4 (45.5):  Here is another game where both teams need a win badly.  Neither offense here is scary; the Colts OL is mediocre on its best days and should be dominated by the Vikes’ front-7; the Vikes’ offense ranks 31^st in the NFL – ahead of only the LA Rams.  I see a low scoring game here and I like to take points in those situations.  Therefore, I’ll take the Colts plus the points on the road.  There are two “disturbing trends” at work in opposition to my selection here:

• Vikes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record.
• Vikes are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games at home.

 

Cleveland at Buffalo – 10 (41.5):  I hate double-digit spreads in NFL games and I do believe that this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The game is pretty much meaningless for both teams – unless you think the question of actually winning a game this year is meaningful for the Browns.  The weather is going to be awful.  Weather.com says it will snow and rain from Thursday through Saturday in Buffalo and then be cloudy with temps in the 20s and winds at 20 mph around game time.  Such a joy …  I shall turn this game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin says to take the Bills and lay the points.  Oy vey!

 

Tennessee at KC – 5.5 (42):  Yet again, both teams need this game.  The Titans are tied atop the AFC South; the Chiefs are tied atop the AFC West.   Absent major turnovers leading to scores by either or both sides, this will be a low scoring game.  I’ll take the Titans plus the points in that scenario.

 

Jax at Houston – 6 (39): The Texans need to win this game; the Jags would get the #3 overall pick in the draft were it to be held tonight.  This too looks to be a low-scoring/defense dominated game but I cannot bring myself to do what I prefer to do in those situations.  I just do not like the Jags on the road when the Texans are 5-1 at home and undefeated in the division.   I’ll take the Texans to win and cover here.  Please note that I took the home team and the favorite here; now take note of two ominous trends:

• Road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 games between these two teams
• Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games between these two teams.

 

New Orleans at Arizona – 2.5 (50.5):  The Saints have the #1 offense in the NFL at 418.3 yards per game and the Saints’ record is 5-8.  The Cards offense has sputtered this year as compared to last year; it ranks 10^th in the NFL at 363.8 yards per game and the Cards’ record is 5-7-1.  Despite the two losing records here, both teams have outscored their opponents for the season.  That tells me something about the defenses here…  Drew Brees has been in a 2-game funk throwing 6 INT and 0 TDs in those games.  Carson Palmer has been underwhelming all year long.  Make this a venue call; I’ll take the Cards at home where they are 4-2-1 for the season and lay the points.

 

SF at Atlanta – 14 (51.5):  I hate double-digit spreads in NFL games.  Atlanta needs a win here and they are going to get one.  The Falcons lead the NFL in scoring at 32.9 points per game.  The Niners have never scored more than 28 points in any game and the only time they got that high was on opening day when they shut out the Rams for their only win of the year.  Compounding the agony here, the Niners give up the most points of any team in the NFL at 30.9 points per game.  I think this game sets up as a rout.  I’ll take the Falcons and lay the points.

 

New England – 3 at Denver (44):  This is the Game of the Week.  The Pats hold home-field advantage in the playoffs today; they surely want to keep it that way.  The Broncos are not a cinch even to make the playoffs given their record and their remaining opponents (see above).  This is a top-shelf defense against a top-shelf offense when the Pats have the ball.  This is a good defense against a marginal offense when the Broncos have the ball.  The bugaboo here is that the Pats rarely play well at Denver.  In fact, in the last 10 games between these teams – going back to 2008 – the home team has won 9 of the 10 times.  I am going to go with the desperation factor here and take the Broncos at home plus the points.  However, I realize that if the Pats get off to a good start and get a 10-point lead on the Broncos, it might be all over at that point…

 

Oakland – 3 at San Diego (49):  Before I make my selection for this game, I should tell you about something I do not ever recall seeing on a game like this.  Virtually every sportsbook has this game at 3 points or at 3.5 points.  However, one Internet sportsbook has it listed as a “pick ‘em game” but you have to lay minus-145 with your pick.  [That means you need to wager 145 dollars to win 100 dollars.]  An interesting proposition to draw attention – and possibly action – to one sportsbook…  Regarding the more mundane way to make a pick for this game, I think this will be a scoring-fest and so I’ll take the game to go OVER.  Here are 2 contradictory trends – if you are into that sort of thing:

• Chargers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games
• Underdog is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 games between these two teams

 

Pittsburgh – 3 at Cincy (44):  The Steelers lead the AC North; the Bengals are not mathematically eliminated from that race – but in fact they are not going to win the division.  The Steelers are 4-3 on the road this year and the Bengals are only 3-2-1 at home.  I think this will be a low-scoring game – – as most of the games between these teams are – – so I’ll take the game to stay UNDER.

 

(Mon Nite) Carolina at Washington – 6.5 (51):  The spread opened at 4.5 and has climbed steadily all week long.  Frankly, this game is a total mystery to me.  I can see either team winning handily and I have no idea what factors will prevail.  Obviously, the betting public is putting their money on the Skins; that is what has driven the spread up 2 points in the past several days.  I am turning this over the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin says to take the Panthers plus the points.

Finally, here is an NFL comment from Brad Dickson in the Omaha World-Herald:

“In September, a TV meteorologist in Cleveland vowed not to shave again until the Browns win a game. For residents of Cleveland, it looks like the ZZ Top bassist is doing the weather.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………