I know that NFL teams are still early on in Training Camps, and I also know that mid to late August could become “hectic” here in Curmudgeon Central. As I discovered last season, it is advantageous for me – – and for you as a reader – – to break down my pre-season rants about the NFL into smaller chunks. And that is why I will start today with NFL Coaches on a Hot Seat in 2026. Last season, 8 teams – – 25% of the league – – fired their head coaches and “went in a different direction”.
I will not be surprised to see 7 to 10 teams take that opportunity starting in January 2027, so my listing today has some speculative names on there. Those seats will only heat up based on underachieving expectations in 2026 – – and I don’t only mean fan expectations; I mean owner expectations. I will list my Hot Seat denizens alphabetically so there is no suggestion of a prioritization here.
- Todd Bowles – Bucs: His is one of the harder coaching résumés to explain. He has been with the Bucs for 4 seasons; the Bucs won the division and went to the playoffs in the first three of those seasons. They missed the playoffs last year and even with those three division championships, Bowles’ total record with the Bucs is a mediocre 35-33-0. I think he will need the Bucs to make the playoffs either as division champions again or as a wildcard entry for him to keep his job. Bowles is signed through the 2028 NFL season; his salary is not disclosed but reports say it is around $5M per year. So, if the owners want to get rid of him, the buyout would not be much of an obstacle for them.
- Dave Canales – Panthers: They won their division last year with a record of 8-9-0. The Panthers’ owner can be described generously as “impulsive”. Another playoff appearance would be nice – – but I think a double-digit win season would be even better. He is signed through the 2029 season but if reports are correct that he makes only $4M per year, that would not be much of a deterrent for a twitchy owner.
- Aaron Glenn – Jets: I know that he is only starting his second season with the Jets but last year was well beyond frustrating and lapped over into the realm of embarrassing. He has already purged his subordinates – the ones he hired just a year ago – meaning there is little cover to be found there. The Jets open on the road against the Titans; that could be an important game for Aaron Glenn because the next three games are against the Packers, Lions and Bears. Starting the season at 0-4 will not go down well with the fans or the less-than-forgiving NYC media. The schedule is not a killer overall, but I think Aaron Glenn needs to win 6 games or more to keep his job. His contract runs through the 2029 NFL season.
- Dan Quinn – Commanders: You can write off last year’s debacle to injuries, and you would have a point in doing so. However, another major contributor to the debacle was an atrocious defense that gave up 26.5 points per game and 384 yards per game. Why is that important? Dan Quinn made his way in the NFL as a “defense guy” and his two years in DC should be embarrassing even to the local fanboys. His contract runs through the end of the 2028 season with a salary reportedly at $4.5M per year.
- Brian Schottenheimer – Cowboys: Jerry Jones does not have a hair trigger when it comes to firing coaches; but if the Cowboys miss the playoffs with a team that Jones has publicly labeled as Super Bowl contenders, he might be forced to make a grand gesture to preserve his assessment that this was a Super Bowl level roster that he compiled. Schottenheimer’s contract runs through the 2028 season, and I have not been able to find any reports about salary figures in that deal.
- Nick Siriani – Eagles: Stay with me here … There were too many rumblings about locker room disharmony last year for this to be purely a wins and losses situation. The Eagles suffered a “Super Bowl letdown” to be sure but that excuse won’t play again in 2026. In addition, the Eagles’ ownership has shown no compunctions about firing successful coaches in the past. Siriani has been on the job for 8 seasons with 7 playoff appearances, 2 Super Bowl appearances and 1 Super Bowl win. Nonetheless, the Eagles fired Andy Reid and also fired Doug Pedersen only two years removed from a Lombardi Trophy. Nick Siriani needs to be sure there is no “locker-room nonsense” this year; and a playoff win would be helpful too.
- Shane Steichen – Colts: He was the Eagles’ offensive coordinator when they won the Super Bowl in 2022; that is the credential that got him this job with the Colts. In his three seasons with the Colts, they have yet to go to the playoffs and the combined record for the three seasons is 25-26-0. Meh! His contract runs through the end of the NFL 2028 season and even though the salary structure in that deal is not disclosed, various reports place it in the neighborhood of $6M per season. I think it will take a playoff appearance for Shane Steichen to keep his job.
- Zac Taylor – Bengals: He has been on the job in Cincy for 7 seasons now; in that time, he has been to the playoffs twice and to the Super Bowl once; the Bengals have missed the playoff is the other five seasons including the last three in a row. On one hand, I am surprised that Taylor is still in Cincy because with a QB of Joe Burrow’s caliber, one should expect more playoff appearances. On the other hand, ownership in Cincy does not like to pay coaches not to coach the Bengals. Taylor’s contract reportedly runs through the 2027 season so this year may just be a “warm seat” for him that has the potential to get “seriously hot” in 2027.
There are a couple of coaches whose seats should not be hot except for some abjectly unrealistic expectations by either fans or owners. I will list them here even though there is no rational reason to consider firing them:
- Matt LaFleur – Packers: His last playoff win was in the 2021 season but the thinking in Green Bay is that they should be in the NFC title game at least once every few years.
- Kevin O’Connell – Vikes: He eked out a 9-8 record last year with the most substandard QB play for a team with a winning record. The team fired the GM in the offseason and signed Kyler Murray as a free agent with an incentive loaded deal. I suspect that the owners’ expectations are double digit wins and/or a division title in 2025.
- Mike Vrabel – Pats: There is no “coaching reason” for him to be mentioned here but if by some twist of fate, the off-field scandal hanging over his head sends the ‘Sordid Meter” up to 10 …
So, there is my assessment of coaches who might be in “job search mode” by the time the Super Bowl takes place. As always, I will return to these prognostications to grade them after the season is over.
One last thing … If a team seriously underperforms early this year, there may be an outside factor that owners may consider when it comes to a mid-season firing. Mike Tomlin is out there without work; Mike Tomlin is a good football coach; getting the opportunity to start gauging his interest in a return to the sidelines could motivate an owner to fire a coach before Halloween. Just a thought …
Finally, I’ll close with this from George “Papa Bear” Halas:
“Nothing is work, unless you’d rather be doing something else.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports.