Author: Jack

Back in the 1960s – – soon after scientists had discovered dirt – – Sammy Davis Jr. posed this musical question:

“What kind of fool am I …?

His foolishness related to his never having fallen in love.  I have no such problem; I have been in love with my long-suffering wife for almost 60 years now.  My foolishness relates to my obsession with trying to predict the outcome of NFL regular seasons before the first kickoff in the first game on the schedule.  And then, I feel compelled to reveal to everyone after the season has unfolded that my “crystal ball” is about as illuminating as a bowling ball.

My predictions for the 2023 NFL season appeared on the website on September 5, 2023; if you want to see the original text, here is the link:

Now the task is to take those predictions and to “grade them” against what really happened between September 5, 2023, and the end of the NFL regular season on January 7, 2024.  I will grade my picks and then calculate my “Grade Point Average” over the totality of the picks to demonstrate if I was more akin to “Football Nostradamus” or “Football NostraDumbAss”.  You can make the call…

I began with 7 “Coaches on a Hot Seat” for 2023 back in September 2023:

1. Dennis Allen:  His Saints improved to the point that they were viable division champion contenders through Week 18.  They didn’t make the playoffs, but Allen has survived as of this morning.
2. Bill Belichick:  I said then that this was a “longshot”, but the Pats were uncompetitive too many times in 2023 and Bill Belichick – – as the second winningest head coach in NFL history – – is out of a job with the Pats.
3. Mike McCarthy:  His Cowboys won the NFC East and then flamed-out in the first round of the playoffs.  I thought that missing the playoffs would cost him his job; he made the playoffs – – for a cameo appearance – – and that was evidently good enough to maintain his employment with the Cowboys.
4. Ron Rivera:  His Commanders stunk out the joint in 2023 and the new ownership in Washington had to relieve him of this position and start afresh.  As of this morning. Ron Rivera will have to find a way to live on the approximately $7M that he will get from the Commanders in the 2024/2025 season simply to be unemployed in the NFL.  I wish I faced such a challenge …
5. Robert Saleh:  I had him on my list only because he would be the scapegoat if the Jets’ season was a disaster.  It was indeed a disaster as compared to expectations, but that was because Aaron Rodgers lasted about a nanosecond as the team’s QB in 2023.  Naturally, Saleh got a pass on the Jets’ poor performance last year.
6. Brandon Staley:  He did not make it to Thanksgiving as the coach of the Chargers…
7. Kevin Stefanski:  I said in September that under his leadership the Browns had won 11 games and then 8 games and then 7 games in the regular season and that trend had to be reversed in 2023 for him to keep his job.  Well, his Browns did reverse that trend and made the playoffs despite having the equivalent of a “traveling road show” starting at QB during the season.

Three of my seven “Coaches on a Hot Seat” are gone and two outperformed what I said were minimum achievements for 2023 for them to keep their jobs.  Robert Saleh gets a pass here because at the time I wrote the predictions, Aaron Rodgers was upright and functional; Dennis Allen has gotten a pass so far – – but he is going to be “on the list” again next year…

Because I had Belichick, Rivera and Staley spot on back in September, I will give myself a B+ for these predictions.

 

Next, I tried to evaluate the possibility of teams that could go “worst to first” in their divisions in 2023.  Remember, Aaron Rodgers was totally healthy at that time.  My comment then was that the Jets stood a decent chance to make that leap and that an injury in Week 1 negated any chance of that happening.  I was way off base in saying that the Texans had no chance to leap from last to first; here is exactly what I said then:

“Texans – AFC South:  The football gods would have to be on a rampage to make this happen …”

Well, the football gods – – along with CJ Stoud, Will Anderson and DeMeco Ryans – – were on a rampage and the Texans did indeed win the AFC South.  They were the only ones to do so.

I will give myself a C for these worst-to-first predictions.

 

After that, I looked at teams that might go “first-to worst” in their divisions.  None of them fell that far in 2023; my best guess was the Bucs who finished the 2023 season with a mediocre 9-8-0 record – – but it was good enough to finish first once again in the squishy-soft NFC South Division.

I will give myself a C for those first-to-worst predictions.

 

Before I get to grading my predictions division-by-division, I made some comments about the potential fortunes for 6 individual teams and about the importance of “young QBs” to their teams in 2023.  Rather than repeat those comments here, let me suggest that you go and read those comments in the original posting here.  In general, those comments were closer to “accurate” than they were to “off-base”.

 

So, how it is time to go to the meat of my preseason predictions and I started in the AFC West.  I thought the division record as a whole would be 36-32; in actuality, it was 32-36.

            I had the Chiefs winning the division – – which they did – – but I had the Chiefs’ record at 13-4.  The Chiefs finished at 11-6 and still won the division by 3 games.

I thought the Chargers would finish second in the division at 9-8.  That prediction had no relationship with reality; the Chargers finished last with a record of 5-12.  Their coach was fired in mid-season and the defense was a sieve.

I had the Broncos finishing third at 8-9 – – and that is exactly what happened.

I had the Raiders in last place in the division at 6-11.  Actually, the Raiders finished second (via tiebreakers) in the division with an 8-9 record and a new head coach.

I give myself a D for the predictions in the AFC West.

 

Then I moved on to the AFC South where I predicted the division’s combined record to be 26-42.  When the games had been played the division’s record was 34-34.  Clearly, the individual team predictions are going to stink here …

I thought the Jags would win the division comfortably at 11-6.  Had they achieved that record, they would have indeed won the division, but the Jags finished at 9-8 and in second place.

I had the Titans finishing second in the AFC South with a 6-11 record.  That is exactly the Titans’ record for 2023, but it had them in last place in the division not second place.

I said the Texans would finish third in the division with a record of 5-12.  What I said then was that I thought the Texans were improving year over year and the rest of the division was not.  I did not foresee in any way that the Texans would end the season at 10-7 and win the division outright and get to host a playoff game.

I put the Colts at the bottom of the division with a predicted record of 4-13.  In no way did I envision the Colts surviving the fact of a season-ending injury to Anthony Richardson and then the emergence of Gardner Minshew leading to a final Colts’ record of 9-8.

There is no sugar-coating applicable here; I give myself an F for the AFC South predictions.

 

Next, I tackled the AFC North and said that the combined record for the teams would be 42-26.  At season’s end, that combined record was 43-25.

I had the Bengals winning the division at 13-9; they finished at 9-8 in last place in the AFC North.  In this case, I do plead “extenuating circumstances”.  Joe Burrow only played in 10 games and played on a gimpy calf/leg in at least two of those games before suffering a season-ending injury.  The Bengals’ players and coaches deserve lots of credit for overcoming that loss and finishing the season with a winning record.

I had the Ravens in second place with a 12-5 record.  The Ravens won the division at 13-4.

I had the Steelers in third place finishing at 9-8 and making the playoffs.  The Steelers’ actual record was 10-7; they finished in third place in the division, and they were indeed a wildcard team in the AFC playoffs.

I thought the Browns would finish last at 7-10; the Browns finished second with an 11-6 record even though they started 5 different QBs in those 17 games.  That feat alone is praiseworthy.

Overall, I give myself a C for the AFC North predictions.

 

And then came the AFC East where I thought the combined division record would be 39-29.  No, the combined record was only 33-35.

I thought the Bills would win the division with a record of 12-5.  The Bills did indeed win the division but with a record of 11-6.  [Aside:  One might think that is a good omen foretelling the fate of the AFC East division.  Hang on tight…]

I had the Jets finishing second in the division at 10-7.  The Jets finished third at 7-10.  Once again, I plead “extenuating circumstances”.  My prediction was predicated on this statement:

“The Jets were not an easy out in 2022 despite their 7-10 record and to say they upgraded their QB position would be like saying that guy Pavarotti ‘could sing a little bit’”.

Aaron Rodgers played one offensive possession for the entirety of the 2023 season, so that “QB upgrade” never had a chance to show itself.

I had the Pats in third place at 8-9.  The Pats ended the season at 4-13 which was sufficiently miserable to get Bill Belichick fired soon after season end.

I had the Dolphins finishing last in the division with an 8-9 record.  Actually, the Dolphins finished second at 11-6.  I significantly underestimated the Dolphins’ scoring offense and significantly overestimated the strength of schedule the Dolphins faced.

The grade for the AFC East predictions is a D+.  The injury to Aaron Rodgers mitigates that erroneous prediction; nothing, however, mitigates the stinker of a prediction relative to the New England Patriots.

 

Crossing over into the NFC, I began with the NFC West.  I had the division with a cumulative record of 34-34.  When all the precincts had reported in, the cumulative division record was 35-33.

I said the Niners would win the division with a record of 13-4.  They won the division with a 12-5 record.

I had the Seahawks finishing second with a 9-8 record; the Seahawks were indeed 9-8 for the 2023 season but finished in third place.

I said the Rams would finish in third place also with a 9-8 record, but the Rams went 10-7 and finished second in the division.

I had the Cards in last place at 3-14.  The Cards finished last with a record of 4-13.

The grade for the NFC West is an A.  Now if you will allow me a moment contentment as I enjoy an island of correctness in what has been a sea of mediocre predictions so far…

 

Next, I went to the NFC South where I predicted an overall division record of 27-41.  When the dust settled on the 2023 season, the overall record for the NFC South was exactly 27-41.  There are lots of mathematical combinations that can provide that cumulative record; the combination I predicted – unfortunately for me – had no resemblance to reality.

I had the Panthers winning the division at 8-9.  The Panthers finished last at 2-15.  Talk about a swing and a miss …

I had the Saints in second place also at 8-9.  The Saints finished second at 9-8.  Not terribly off base …

I had the Falcons in third place at 6-11.  The Falcons finished third at 7-10.  Can’t complain about that prognostication …

I had the Bucs last in the division at 5-12.  The Bucs finished at 9-8 and won the division and hosted a playoff game that they won.  I based my prediction on the fact that Tom Brady had retired and that:

“Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask will not replace Tom Brady comfortably.”

Baker Mayfield will never be favorably compared to Tom Brady, but he played QB for the Bucs this year at a high level and deserves nothing but accolades for his performance.

The grade for this division is not an easy decision.  The overall division record and the two predictions for the Saints and Falcons are very good.  The two predictions for the Panthers and the Bucs are brutally awful.  Overall, I will assign the NFC South predictions a grade of D.

 

The NFC North was next up, and I thought the division’s combined record would be 31-37.  The actual combined record was 35-33.

I said the Lions would win the division with a 10-7 record.  Indeed, the Lions won the division and posted a gaudy 12-5 record.

I had the Vikes in second place with a 9-8 record.  The Vikes finished in third place with a 7-10 record.  Once again, this “underperformance” may be attributed to a season ending injury to starting QB, Kirk Cousins who only appeared in 8 games in 2023.

I said the Bears would finish third at 7-10.  The Bears finished 4^th – – deep into the tiebreakers with the Vikes – – with that same 7-10 record.

I thought the Packers would finish last in the division at 5-12.  The Packers finished second at 9-8 and made the playoffs as a wildcard team and won a playoff game.

The grade for the NFC North predictions is a C.

 

Last but not least, I tackled the NFC East and thought the cumulative record would be 38-30.  Looking at the final standings, the NFC East was only 33-35 overall.

I had the Eagles winning the division at 12-5; they finished second at 11-6.

I had the Cowboys finishing second at 11-6; they won the division at 12-5.  Not too bad so far …

I said the Commanders would finish third with a 9-8 record.  They finished fourth at 4-13.  Moreover, I said that a strength of the Commanders would be their defense which I said was a “Top-Ten, caliber unit in the entire league.”  That “Top Ten unit” allowed 518 points in 2023 (30.5 points per game); that was 63 more points allowed than the next worst scoring defense in 2023.

I said the Giants would finish last at 6-11.  The Giants finished exactly at 6-11 but the Commanders out-stunk the Giants and lifted the Giants to a third-place finish.

The grade for the NFC East predictions is a C+.

 

            So, the overall “Grade Point Average” here comes out to be 1.95.

At least it beats the GPA earned by John “Bluto” Blutarsky of “Zero-point-Zero”.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Victor Wembanyama has not been able to turn the San Antonio Spurs into a dominant team all by himself, but he has shown anyone who has watched him play that his talents go well beyond his just being “a tall guy”.  Earlier this week, he recorded a triple-double the hard way:

• 27 points
• 14 rebounds
• 10 blocked shots

Please remember that Wembanyama just turned 20 years old on Jan 4, 2024.  He is going to be “scary good” for a long time.

Another young athlete saw his fortune and his future take a much more negative turn this week.  Mitchell Trubisky is only 29 years old and as an overall #2w pick in the NFL Draft, one might expect that he was entering the prime of his career.  Such has not been the case.  In his second year with the Bears, Trubisky started 14 games and the Bears went 11-3.  That was in 2018 and it was the high-water mark for his career.

The Bears did not pick up his fifth-year contract option and Trubisky signed on with the Bills on a one-year deal.  He made cameo appearances for the Bills in 2021 and then moved on to the Steelers in 2022 as the presumed successor to Ben Roethlisberger.  That did not work out; he was replaced by rookie Kenny Pickett and then in 2023 he lost the backup QB job to Mason Rudolph.  This week, the Steelers released Mitchell Trubisky.  There are at least 10 NFL teams that can legitimately be expected to try to upgrade themselves at the QB position.  I wonder if any of them will take a serious look at Mitchell Trubisky.

Moving on …  According to an AP report, ESPN and the CFP have reached an agreement that will allow ESPN to retain the TV rights to the new and expanded 12-team College Football Playoff through the end of the 2031 season.  The cost to ESPN will be $1.3B annually over the course of the six-year extension of those TV rights.  The current deal between ESPN and the CFP is for $608M annually but only includes 3 playoff games and four of the major bowl games.  The new deal is expected to cover the 11 playoff games along with those same four major bowl games.

Sticking with college football for a moment, I said last week that there were persistent rumors that Chip Kelly was looking to leave the head coaching job at UCLA and had his eye on an NFL job as an offensive coordinator.  Well, that did not materialize … but Kelly did indeed leave the UCLA job and took an offensive coordinator position at Ohio St. and not in the NFL.  It does not happen often that a head coach leaves his position voluntarily to take a job as a coordinator at the same level of football, and there is another aspect to this switch.

• When Chip Kelly was the offensive coordinator at New Hampshire, Ryan Day was his QB.
• When Kelly was the head coach of the Eagles, Ryan Day was his QB coach and when Kelly went to the Niners, he took Day with him as the QB coach there.

Switching gears … The college basketball season now can take center stage in terms of focus and interest as teams are jockeying for position in order to get an invitation to March Madness.  There is no single dominant team this year that is threatening to go undefeated; the best record for a team in the Top 25 currently is 22-2 (UConn and Purdue).  In the Top 10, there is a team with 6 losses (Tennessee) and in the Top 25, there is a team with 8 losses (Wisconsin).  This could make for a very interesting NCAA basketball tournament next month.

Next up …  The numbers are in; this last Super Bowl game was the “biggest” one in history in several dimensions.

• The TV audience averaged 123.4 million viewers; the previous high average viewership was 115.1 million viewers last year.  That is a 7.2% increase in a year-over-year comparison.
• The folks who make these measurements say that 202.4 million viewers were tuned into the game over all the various platforms at some point in the game.  Last year that total audience figure was 184 million viewers, so the total audience exposure grew by 10% this year.
• The sportsbook handle in Las Vegas also set a record.  The Nevada Gaming Control Board said the handle for this year’s game was $185.6M beating the previous high of $179.8M back in 2022.

The Gaming Control Board also said that the sportsbooks won an average of 3.7% this year which is a low percentage for the sportsbooks.  What cost the sportsbooks their edge were two wagers that were popular with bettors, and both hit:

1. Bettors took an average of 9-1 odds that the game would go into overtime.  When that happened, the sportsbooks were on the hook for some sizeable losses.
2. Also, the Chiefs were underdogs in the game but according to the Gaming Control Board, 71% of the money bet against the spread was bet on the Chiefs plus the points.

Finally, an observation by author, Margaret Halsey:

“The English never smash in a face.  They merely refrain from asking it to dinner.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I assume that readers here either saw the Super Bowl Game on Sunday and/or you have read accounts of the game to the degree that you do not need or want me to review game stats.  And so, I shall not – – except as they might pertain to several comments I have about the game itself.

I was very disappointed in the first half of the game on Sunday.  Even though it was a one-score game for about 90% of the first half, I found myself uninspired by the game as the teams left the field.  You may be surprised at that statement; you will not be surprised to learn that I was even more uninspired by the halftime show.  And then the game began again, and the second half was super-interesting.  Whatever the teams did to crank up the intensity during that extended halftime was a welcome addition.

A major statistical advantage for the Chiefs in the game was the performance on third-down conversions:

• Chiefs = 9 of 19     Niners = 3 of 12

If you want to ascribe that difference to superior defense by the Chiefs, be my guest.  If you want to ascribe that difference to superior play-calling and/or offensive execution by the Chiefs, be my guest.  No matter ho you slice it, that was a telling difference in the game outcome.

At the time of the coin flip for the overtime, I said – – with about a half-dozen witnesses present – – that the Niners made a mistake by taking the ball instead of playing defense first.  I stand by that as a strategic decision when teams are playing under the revised “playoff overtime rules”.  Having said that, I think it is way over the top for some folks to conclude that Kyle Shanahan “blew the game” by making that call.  I say that for two reasons:

1. The new and revised rule was never activated.  Under the new rule and under the old rule, when the Niners scored a field goal on the first possession of overtime, the Chiefs would have received a kickoff.  The Niners would win if they stop the Chiefs or get a turnover in a regular season overtime game or in the Super Bowl Game you saw on Sunday.  The fact of the rule change was irrelevant on Sunday.
2. The Niners’ defense needed to protect 75 yards of the playing field to win the Super Bowl.  They could not/did not achieve that protection and they lost the game.  Kyle Shanahan did not miss a single tackle or blow even one pass coverage on that final drive by the Chiefs.  You may decide that credit belongs here to the Chiefs’ offense or that blame belongs to the Niners’ defense.  Take your pick, but Kyle Shanahan did not “blow the game”.

Regarding the Super Bowl ads, I will say that this year’s crop was better than the last couple of years but still not up to the standards of years gone by.  It was good to see the Budweiser Clydesdales back in the rotation.  Now if only the suits at Budweiser would bring back Louie the Lizard next year …

One ancillary note from the weekend involves the announcement of the 2024 Pro Football Hall of Fame class.  Let me be clear; I have no problem with Patrick Willis being part of the Hall of Fame.  I do have a problem with the following comparison, however.  Here are some pertinent career stats for Linebacker, Patrick Willis:

• Games played = 112
• INTs = 8
• TDs = 2
• Passes defended = 53
• Forced Fumbles = 16
• Sacks = 20.5
• QB Hits = 41
• Tackles = 950
• Tackles for Loss = 60

As I said, those stats are worthy of the Hall of Fame.  Now consider these career stats for a temporarily anonymous linebacker:

• Games played = 195
• INTs = 24
• TDs = 2
• Passes defended not available; stat was not kept then.
• Forced Fumbles = 26
• Sacks = 52
• QB Hits not available; stat was not kept then.
• Tackles = 1123
• Tackles for Loss not available; stat was not kept then.

The anonymous linebacker here is Seth Joyner and I think his career stats are comparable to those of Patrick Willis.  Joyner retired from the NFL in 1999 meaning he has been eligible for the Hall of Fame for 20 years.  Might I suggest that the Hall of Fame voters take another look at Seth Joyner for the Hall of Fame?

Finally, let me close here with these words from comedian, Joah Rivers:

“I hate housework!  You make the beds; you do the dishes – and six months later you have to start all over again.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

This set of Football Fridays began in August 2023.  With the Super Bowl on tap two days from now, it seems proper to recall some old time Sinatra lyrics:

“And now the end is here
And so I face that final curtain…”

So, as always, let me review the “Betting Bundle” from two weeks ago:

• College  =  0-0-0   =>  Final Season Total  =  21-10-0
• NFL  =  2-1-0   =>  Season Total  =  29-31-0
• Parlays  = 0-0  =>   Final Season Total  =  11-17  Final Net “Profit” = $8

The college selections and the money line parlay selections are done for the season.  I will be making two selections this week (against the spread and on the Total Line) because I will forecast the exact final score of this year’s Super Bowl.  In eleventh grade English, I was taught that this sort of “literary ploy” was called “foreshadowing” and that great authors used this technique to seize the interest of the audience.  Thanks to Miss Reed for the instruction…

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Well after most of the college football head coach shuffling was underway, reports of unrest kept showing up:

• Nick Saban simply retired and recently announced that he was going to be part of ESPN’s Gameday.  [Aside:  Is this an indication that Lee Corso might be “stepping away”.]
• Jim Harbaugh ditched his job with the national champs to go to the NFL
• Jeff Hafley left BC as the head coach there to take a defensive coordinator job in the NFL.  Hafley had been at BC for 4 years with 2 bowl appearances; so, it would not seem as if he were “nudged aside”.
• There are persistent rumors that Chip Kelly is looking to get an offensive coordinator position in the NFL and abandon the head coaching position at UCLA.

I was trying to make sense of all that when it occurred to me that college basketball has recently seen a bunch of its excellent long-time coaches leave that game too:

• Jim Boeheim
• Mikie Brey
• Mike Krzyzewski
• Roy Williams
• Jay Wright

I wonder if the arrival of the “NIL Era” of collegiate athletics has a lot to do with this.  The existence of the transfer portal created a situation where college coaches needed to be in “recruiting mode” for just about every day that they were not in “game planning mode” or even “game day mode”.  Moreover, coaches needed not only to recruit excellent players who may have been “upset” at their current schools; coaches also needed to “re-recruit” their own players lest they too become “upset” and seek refuge in the transfer portal.  Now, add to that chaos the fact that money has become involved in the wooing processes.

So, maybe one of the fall-outs of NIL and the Transfer Portal is that some highly regarded college coaches just decided that they do not need that kind of hassle and decided to “take their lives in different directions”.  Obviously, I can’t say for sure, but I do wonder …

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The NFL, their broadcast partners and the majority of football fans are rooting for a competitive game this weekend.  Folks who bought advertising slots in the fourth quarter of the game are lighting candles in church seeking the beneficence of something other than a score of 38-0 – – either way – – as that final quarter begins.  Such has not always been the case with the final game of the NFL season.  Dan Daly is a certified “NFL Historian”, and he provided the following reminder:

• “Fun Fact:  In the 1939 and 40 NFL title games, the winning teams scored a combined 100 points and the losers scored 0.  Packers 27 Giants 0 and Bears 73 Washington 0.”

Here is an interesting question posed by Dan Daly:

• What is the common thread with these 7 NFL coaches?

1. 1. 1. Hank Stram
      2. Don Shula
      3. Tom Landry
      4. Dick Vermeil
      5. Bill Cowher
      6. Andy Reid
      7. Sean McVay

The answer is that all seven of these coaches lost a Super Bowl Game before they won a Super Bowl Game.

I was unaware of a “curse” that overhangs the Super Bowl until I read about the so-called “Cousins Curse”.  According to that curse, no team has ever won the Super Bowl if it lost a regular season game to a team quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins.  Did I hear someone ask why that is interesting?  Well, on October 23^rd, 2023, Kirk Cousins led the Vikes to a 22-17 victory over the Niners.  Cue the spooky organ music …

Too many commentators have put too much energy into reports about Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift.  Yes, it is an interesting confluence of disparate fandoms – – music and sports; but this confluence has precedent to the point that I suggest it is not even the biggest “crossover relationship” in history.  Please recall:

• Joseph Paul DiMaggio and Marilyn Monroe – – née Norma Jeane Mortenson

A tidbit of history was made two weeks ago when the Niners rallied to beat the Lions in the NFC Championship Game.  The Lions led the game by 17 points at halftime.  In the history of the Super Bowl, teams leading at halftime by 17 points or more were 21-0; now teams with that lead at halftime are 21-1.

After the Lions were eliminated from this year’s playoffs, much was made of their “championship drought” which extends back to 1957.  The summer after that victory, the Lions traded away their QB, Bobby Layne, and he was none too happy about being sent to the Steelers.  At that time, he placed a curse on the Lions saying that they would not win another championship for the next 50 years because they were dumb enough to trade him.  That bold prediction seems quaint in 2024 because the 50-year mark arrived in 2007 and stands at 67 years – – and counting.

Interestingly, that is not the longest current “championship drought” in the NFL; that mortification belongs to the Arizona Cardinals who last won an NFL championship as the Chicago Cardinals in 1947 – – a full decade before the Lions’ victory and the “Layne Curse”.  Just for fun, here are some happenings from 1947:

• Dr. Edwin Land demonstrated the first Polaroid Instant Camera
• Jackie Robinson signed with the Brooklyn Dodgers
• The US Air Force was created
• The CIA was created
• Mike Krzyzewski was born
• Fiorello La Guardia died – – and – –
• Miracle on 34^th Street was released.

It has indeed been a long time since 1947…

Andy Reid will join an elite group of head coaches on Sunday when he leads a team to the Super Bowl for the 5^th time.  Sunday will be the Chiefs’ fourth appearance in the game under Reid’s guidance and the Eagles went to the Super Bowl with Reid at the helm back in 2005.  Here are the other NFL head coaches who went to the Super Bowl 5 or more times:

• Bill Belichick – – 9 times with the Pats
• Don Shula – – 6 times, once with the Colts and five times with the Dolphins
• Tom Landry – – 5 times with the Cowboys

I think too many commentators and fans attach too much emphasis on “winning the Super Bowl in any discussion of a quarterback’s “greatness”.  Consider this list of 5 quarterbacks who never won a Super Bowl:

1. Dan Fouts
2. Jim Kelly
3. Dan Marino
4. Warren Moon
5. Fran Tarkenton

They are undeniably great quarterbacks whether you judge by the statistical record or – – if you are of a certain age – – if you judge by the “eyeball test”.”

Now consider this list of 9 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and ask yourself if they compare favorably with any of the five listed above:

1. Trent Dilfer
2. Nick Foles
3. Jeff Hostetler
4. Brad Johnson
5. Jim McMahon
6. Mark Rypien
7. Phil Simms
8. Joe Theisman
9. Doug Williams

I do not intend to demean any of the nine QBs on the second listing here; they were clearly well above average as QBs in their time and over NFL history.  At the same time, I think that trying to add any of these nine QBs to the list 5 non-Super Bowl winning QBs above would be impossible.

I ran across this stat that I found very interesting – – and sufficiently arcane that I did not even try to verify on my own.  I present it here unadulterated:

• Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog in 3 playoff games in his career.  His record in those three games is 3-0.
• Patrick Mahomes now has as many “underdog playoff victories” as Brett Favre, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino and Steve Young combined.  Those four QBs – – all in the Hall of Fame by the way – – went 3-25 in their careers as “playoff underdogs”.

Let me move on to a review of the Conference Championship Games from two weeks ago.  The games were good to watch because they were close and competitive but I suggest that both games were lost rather than won.

Chiefs 17  Ravens 10:  The stat sheet confirms that this game was dead even, but the Ravens’ offense was inefficient at best for most of the game.  Consider that the Ravens scored their TD with 5 minutes left in the first quarter.  Here are the Ravens’ possessions from that point on:

• 4 plays – – 8 yards – – FUMBLE
• 5 plays – – 19 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 6 yards – – PUNT
• 1 play – – minus-1 yard – – HALFTIME
• 3 plays – – 4 yards – – PUNT
• 7 plays – – 31 yards – – PUNT
• 5 plays – – 63 yards – – FUMBLE
• 12 plays – – 74 yards – – INTERCEPTION
• 9 plays – – 29 yards – – FIELD GOAL (with 2:38 left in the game).

I think there are two other reasons the Ravens lost a game they could have won; both were self-inflicted wounds.

1. The Ravens led the NFL in rushing in the regular season.  They only ran the ball 16 times in the game and one of those “rush attempts” was Lamar Jackson taking a knee to end the half.  The Ravens ran for 229 yards in their previous game against the Texans; they gained 81 yards on the ground here.  The Ravens’ leading rusher, Gus Edwards, carried the ball exactly 3 times and touched the ball exactly 4 times in the game.  I don’t know if this was an error in “game planning” or an error in “play calling”, but it does not seem particularly bright for a team to abandon one of its potent weapons in a championship game.
2. The Ravens lost their poise.  The Ravens were penalized 8 times for 95 yards; the average penalty was for 12 yards, so these were not “illegal motion” or “delay of game” infractions.  Five of those eight penalties gave the Chiefs a first down.  As the first half was winding down, the Chiefs put together a 55-yard drive resulting in a field goal.  Of those 55 yards, 30 yards came as a result of an unnecessary roughness penalty followed by a roughing the passer penalty.  Then late in the 4^th quarter with the Ravens trying to regain possession to attempt to tie the game, the Ravens sent 12 defenders on the field giving the Chiefs another first down.

One of the buzzwords these days is “accountability” and people talk about the importance of “holding folks accountable” in all walks of life including the NFL.  Well, riddle me this:

• What is the “accountability” for that “game planning/play calling” mystery and/or those “loss of poise penalties” that were instrumental in the Ravens losing a playoff game and a shot at the Super Bowl?
• Who held whom “accountable” and what was the “sanction”?

Niners 34  Lions 31:  The stat sheet confirms that this game was a nail-biter:

• Niners’ Total Offense = 413 yards   Lions’ Total Offense = 442 yards
• Niners’ 3^rd down Conversions = 6 of 12   Lions’ 3^rd down Conversions = 6 of 12
• Niners’ average gain per snap = 6.3 yards   Lions’ average gain per snap = 6.1 yards
• Niners’ penalties = 3 for 20 yards   Lions’ penalties = 2 for 15 yards
• Niners’ turnovers = 1   Lions’ turnovers = 1.

Lions’ coach Dan Campbell has been roundly criticized for his two “4^th down gambles” in the second half of this game.  My long-suffering wife had “adopted” the Lions as her favorite playoff team and she was unhappy with the failure of those two gambles.  I think what irked her at least as much is that I said those risks were not worth taking before the ball was snapped on either occasion.  The second of the two “gambles” was particularly dangerous.  The Lions trailed by 3 points with about 10 minutes left in the game.  Campbell turned down the option of a 47-yard field goal in lieu of going for it on 4^th-and-3.  Campbell defended that decision – – and the previous one – – saying that this is what he had done all season long and the Lions were going to play “the way we are”.  Yes, the Lions led the NFL in fourth down conversion attempts; no, that fact does not mean “who you are” is a bunch of madmen who ignore the game situation in front of you at decision time.  As Forest Gump’s mother explained to Forest:

“Stupid is as stupid does.”

There was another Lions’ decision that was as bad as either of the two decisions to “go for it.”  With a little more than 2minutes left in the game the Lions had the ball at the one-yardline trailing by 10 points; the Lions needed a score on the possession and equally important, needed all their timeouts to stop the clock on defense in the hopes of  a future offensive possession.  Somehow, someone decided to call a running play up the middle that got stuffed and cost the Lions the timeout they had to have on the Niners’ next possession.  Wow…

 

THE Game:

 

With the Super Bowl happening in Las Vegas for the first time, you had to know that something “Las Vegas-like” would happen this weekend.  Here is the leader in the clubhouse:

• The Chicken Ranch is a famous legal brothel in Sin City.  They have announced what they call a sextravaganza.  For the winning Super Bowl team, the Ranch will give players free run of the brothel for the night and spouses are welcome to participate in threesomes.

In case you think I am making this up – – thanks for bestowing that level of creativity on me – – follow this link:

As is always the case, there are hundreds of ways to wager on various aspects of the Super Bowl game.  Every regular season game features “proposition bets”; the Super Bowl takes that concept to another galaxy.  Proposition bets – – or props – – are simple statements that allow the bettor to take one side or the other with odds attached to either side of the prop.  For example:

• Joe Flabeetz will rush for more than 72.5 yards in the game

One thing is for certain, good old Joe cannot run for exactly 72.5 yards in the game so he must end up either over that number or under that number.  You, as a bettor, can pick a side and either win or lose by looking at the final stat sheet to see the official yardage assigned to Joe’s rushing tries.  You do not need a stratospheric IQ to grasp the concept of a prop bet.

The Super Bowl is a time for “Props on Steroids”.  Many props involve game action/events, but many others involve the elements surrounding the game:

• You can bet on the coin flip – – heads or tails?
• You can bet on the duration of the National Anthem – – over or under a time limit.
• You can bet on the color of the Gatorade that will drench the winning coach
• You can wager on whether Travis Kelce will propose to Taylor Swift after the game.
• You can make those bets; I will choose not to do so…

You can wager on individual happenings in the game:

• Total number of accepted penalties = 10.5
• Will the first score in the game be a TD, a Field Goal or a Safety?

[Aside: If you bet “safety” and that happens, your odds were +10,000 at FanDuel as of this morning.]

You can engage in what are known as “Cross sports props” too:

• Oscar De La Hoya Professional Boxing Wins (39) VS. Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts  in the Super Bowl Game
• [Aside:  If you take the “Mahomes- side” here you get odds at +115.]
• Highest Scoring NCAAB Team Feb. 10, 2024 VS. Christian McCaffrey Total Rushing Yards in the Super Bowl Game.
• [Aside:  If you take the “McCaffrey-side here, you get odds at +400.]

Trust me when I say there are hundreds of such props as the books try to appeal to the interests of the 100 million or so folks who will tune into the game on Sunday.  It is an audience with wide interests; the sportsbooks have cast a wide net.

(Sun. 6:30 PM ET)  Niners – 3 vs. Chiefs (47): Most of the sportsbooks have the spread at 2.5-points but there are a couple of places with the line at 3 points.  In another example of foreshadowing, let me choose to employ the slightly larger spread for the record here.  If the Chiefs win on Sunday, they will be the first “repeat champions” since the Pats did it in the 2003 and 2004 seasons.  Two weeks ago, I thought that the Ravens ability to run the ball against the Chiefs would allow the Ravens to win that game.  As noted above, the Ravens never really tried to run the ball then and they are at home watching this weekend.  This week, I think the ability – or inability – of the Chiefs to run the ball will be important.  The Niners have not been stout against the run playing the Packers or the Lions in this year’s playoffs; if the Chiefs can run the ball to set up their passing game, I believe the Chiefs will win the game outright.  The time has come for me to reveal my exact score prediction for the game:

• Chiefs 27   Niners 23

With that prediction and the lines as stated above, I like the Chiefs plus the points, and I like the game to go OVER put those selections in the final “Betting Bundle” of this NFL season.

Finally, let me close today – – and the season – – with the way Dandy Don Meredith would declare various Monday Night Football games to be finished:

• “Turn out the lights, the party’s over
• They say that all good things must end.
• Call it a night, the party’s over
• And tomorrow starts the same old thing again …”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Two days ago, this headline appeared at CBSSports.com:

“Las Vegas mayor says Athletics should not relocate despite plans: ‘Figure out a way to stay in Oakland’”

I have said here that there are still hurdles to be crossed before the A’s find a new home, but I must admit that having the mayor of Las Vegas tell the team to “stay away” was not part of my thinking.  Mayor Carolyn Goodman has been enthusiastic about and instrumental in getting other sports franchises to come to Las Vegas (Golden Knights and Raiders).  She does not have a knee-jerk opposition to making accommodations to franchise owners.  In the case of the A’s relocation, she does not like the site that has been selected for the A’s ballpark – – it is on The Strip – – and she thinks it is inadequate in terms of traffic management and acreage.   In that CBSSports.com article, Mayor Goodman offered up a bit of mind reading:

“I thought, this does not make sense, and so why is it happening?  And then I thought, well, because they really want to stay in Oakland, they want to be on the water, they have that magnificent dream. Yet they can’t get it done … I personally think they’ve gotta figure out a way to stay in Oakland and make their dream come true.”

Does this change the calculus for the A’s ownership?  I clearly don’t know the answer to that, but I do believe that this is not a positive occurrence in terms of advancing the A’s relocation process.  My reaction to this was to recall something from Robert Townsend’s book Up The Organization:

“It’s a poor bureaucrat who can’t stall a good idea until even its sponsor is relieved to see it dead and officially buried.”

Switching gears …  With all the attention focused on the Super Bowl game this weekend, it might slip your mind that pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in less than 2 weeks.  And so, with baseball action around the corner, let me pose a question here:

• Does the profusion of “openers” sometimes leading to “bullpen games” make for a better baseball product or not?

It would be difficult to deny that the importance of starting pitching – – and starting pitchers in general – – has declined in recent years and I submit that the rate of decline is accelerating.  Personally, I do not mind the “bullpen game” stratagem by various managers but I accept the unease that other folks might have with those sorts of arrangements – – particularly if they occur in the playoffs or the World Series.

I don’t want to sound like too old a codger here, but there were times in baseball when people would go to a game specifically to see a starting pitcher like maybe Bob Gibson or Greg Maddux or Nolan Ryan when they came to town.  Are there any MLB pitchers today who might command that sort of “box office magnetism”?  And if not, is that good for baseball or not?

MLB has adopted a bunch of rule changes in the past couple of seasons that would have been labeled as outrageous even 15 years ago.  They made the bases bigger, and they added a pitch clock; Babe Ruth was spinning in his grave.  Managers came up with “The Shift” to frustrate pull hitters – – and MLB legislated to put limits on “The Shift”.  So, it may seem equally outrageous to suggest, but should MLB consider legislating in favor of starting pitching and against “openers” and “bullpen games”?

Moving on …  The NBA regular season is about 60% over and in case you have not checked in on happenings in the NBA so far, let me point out that the three teams tied for the lead in the NBA Western Conference with 35-16 records are:

• Oklahoma City Thunder
• Minnesota Timberwolves
• Denver Nuggets

The Thunder is a team that could be very good for a very long time if injuries or egos do not get in the way.  The Thunder’s three leading players are young – – I mean very young:

• Chet Holmgren in 21 years old
• Jalen Williams is 22 years old
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is 25 years old

[Aside:  The oldest player on the 15-man roster today is only 30 years old.]

In addition, the Thunder have 3 first round draft picks for this coming June meaning that the core group should get even stronger and younger than it is for now.  The Thunder’s coach is Mark Daigneault (at the ripe old age of 38) and if he can manage to keep all that talent – – and potential talent slated to arrive in June – – happy and harmonious, he and the team should do quite well in the next few years.

Having mentioned Robert Townsend above, let me close today with another of his observations from Up The Organization:

“Consultants are people who borrow your watch and tell you what time it is, and then walk off with the watch.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The last new NFL head coach hired in this season’s iteration of “Speed Dating” was Dan Quinn by the Washington Commanders.  I think it is fair to say that Bob Molinaro of the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot was not exactly blown away by the choice:

New guy: Dan Quinn is a “wow” hire for the Commanders. As in wow, that’s the best they could do?

Also related to that coaching selection, someone reminded NFL historian Dan Daly that 50 years ago when George Allen took over the Redskins’ coaching job, he traded for and signed a whole bunch of his former players from the LA Rams.  In fact, there were so many that the team became known as the “Ramskins”.  The question was posed to Daly what the team might be called if/when Dan Quinn brings former Cowboys’ players to DC.  Here is Dan Daly’s response via Twitter – – or whatever they call it this week:

“In a political town like DC, the Jerrymanders?

One more item on the new coaching regime in Washington …  Eric Bienemy certainly did not get the head coaching job with the Commanders and now he is going to be released entirely by the team after Klif Kingsbury was hired as the Offensive Coordinator.  It did not take long for Stephen A. Smith to play the race card on that move.  In part, here is what Smith said:

“I’m saying from a historical perspective, we look at a guy like Kliff Kingsbury and you know what we see as black folks? This is the kind of stuff that don’t happen for black folks.”

And …

 “It doesn’t seem to me there are bona fide football reasons as to why Kliff Kingsbury is the new offensive coordinator for the Washington Commanders.”

The last time Klif Kingsbury was in a position close to being an NFL offensive coordinator was back with the Texans in 2010 and 2011; he was the co-offensive coordinator.  In 2010, the Texans went 6-10 (unimpressive); in 2011, the Texans went 10-6 and won their division and made the playoffs (not too shabby).  Kingsbury’s time as the head coach of the Cards was an uninspiring 28-37-1 over 4 seasons with 1 playoff appearance thrown in that mix.

So, in one sense, Smith is “right” in his thinking that Kingsbury does not have a potent NFL résumé to bring to this job.  However, here is one detail that Smith either did not check or did not choose to mention.

• Two years ago, with Scott Turner as the team’s offensive coordinator, the Commanders scored 321 points in 17 games (18.9 points per game).
• Last year with Eric Bienemy as the team’s offensive coordinator, the Commanders scored 329 points in 17 games.  (19.4 points per game)
• The Commanders scoring improved by one-half of one point per game with mostly the same offensive roster and probably better QB play.

NFL free agency has not blossomed yet, but there are a couple of fairly obvious things to say about some pending free agents.  Baker Mayfield is the most obvious example of someone who has seen his potential value increase significantly over the past year.  In 2023, Mayfield played for the Bucs on a 1-year contract with a base value of $4M with incentives that could have maxxed out at $8.8M.  Mayfield led the Bucs to the playoffs by winning the NFC South and then won a playoff game over the Eagles in the wildcard round.  In the regular season he threw for just over 4000 yards with 28 TDs and 10 INTs.

It seems as if Mayfield has been around the NFL for a long time, but he is only 28 years old.  So, what sort of deal might he command in the free agent market place?  He certainly played above the level of his 2023 contract, but I don’t think he will get offers that challenge the QBs at the top of the NFL pay scale at the moment.  Maybe an offer like:

• 4 years and $90M with $60M guaranteed?

Perhaps that value increases if a couple of QB-needy teams focus on Mayfield such as:

1. Bears (?)
2. Broncos
3. Bucs
4. Commanders
5. Falcons
6. Pats
7. Raiders
8. Steelers (?)
9. Titans (?)
10. Vikes – – if Cousins signs elsewhere

Lots of possibilities there …

#1 son went to William and Mary for his undergraduate degree.  In 1994, he was a junior there and the football team then had three folks taking part who would be employed as NFL head coaches in 2024:

• Mike Tomlin was a WR on the that team
• Sean McDermott was a safety on that team
• Dan Quinn was an assistant coach on that team.

That’s pretty amazing for a Division 1-AA football program…

Finally today, words of wisdom from H. L. Mencken:

“Wealth – any income that is at least one hundred dollars more a year than the income of one’s wife’s sister’s husband.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

With the players and coaches from the Super Bowl teams having arrived in Las Vegas, the NFL has imposed even tighter restrictions on gambling activities for those folks.  Here is the bottom line:

• While in Las Vegas, players participating in the Super Bowl are prohibited from engaging in any form of gambling, including casino games and betting on any sport. – – AND – –
• Players on teams other than the super Bowl participants may gamble legally but nay not wager on the Super Bowl game or any proposition bets related to that game. – – AND – –
• Team officials of any club and employees of the participating teams may not bet on any sports or play any casino games until the Super Bowl game is over.

While that seems a bit draconian to me, I am not in the position of protecting the image and the acceptability of a product that generates about $20B a year in revenues.  So, the NFL poohbahs have chosen to be ultra-conservative in their dealings with gambling in Las Vegas.  In a correspondence with players, Commissioner Goodell explained this ultra-conservative approach this way:

“The NFL is strongly committed to protecting the integrity of out game.  As NFL players, you have a special responsibility … to ensure that it is always played fairly, honestly and to the best of your ability.  This includes taking all appropriate steps to safeguard our game against possible gambling-related risks that can undermine the confidence and trust of our fans …”

Reading that excerpt from the Commish reminded me of an old NFL story.  Back in the 1960s, Alex Karras was suspended from the NFL for a full year when he admitted to placing bets on NFL games.  When he was reinstated by the league, he returned to his team (the Lions) and was named a captain of that squad.  As such he was in the mid-field group just prior to the game for the coin toss.  When the referee asked Karras to call the toss, Karras allegedly replied:

“I’m sorry sir; I’m not permitted to gamble.”

So, just how will this year’s coin toss take place in light of the NFL prohibitions on players and coaches and gambling?

I want to go back for a moment to the NFL coaching mixture that seems to have ended for this offseason.  Probably the earliest and fastest decision in the process was by the Cowboys to retain the services of Mike McCarthy.  Given the trouncing the Cowboys suffered in the wildcard round of the playoffs this year, I was a bit surprised by that decision.  Obviously, I have no inside information here; but I do wonder if the swiftness of that decision to keep McCarthy happened in this way:

• Jerry Jones places a call to Bill Belichick’s agent sounding out if Belichick might be interested in coming to the Cowboys.
• The agent returns that call a few hours later and says, “Hell, no!”
• The Cowboys announce “Plan B” as if it had been “Plan A” all along.

I have said this before, and I will say it here again.  Since it is apparent that Bill Belichick will not be on the sidelines for an NFL team next season, he belongs on television.  If you saw him in studio setting doing the NFL’s Best 100 Players, you saw that he is comfortable, knowledgeable, and even engaging on TV.  He is not always like his monosyllabic press conferences; I think he would be a star on NFL studio presentations.

Here is a Quick Quiz.  No googling allowed …

• Four different NFL head coaches have lost the Super Bowl game 4 times.
• Name them.
• [Answer below.  I got 3 of the 4 very quickly and finally got the last one.]

An email from a reader asked if I thought the praise and the reaction to the Chargers’ hiring of Jim Harbaugh was over the top.  I would agree that some of the coverage was excessive, but I do think that Harbaugh’s coaching history plus the roster he will inherit justify plenty of optimism on the part of Chargers’ fans and NFL commentators.

In Harbaugh’s first two coaching stops, he took two college teams that were anything but traditional powers (University of San Diego and Stanford) and rather quickly turned them into winning programs.  Then he went to the NFL and took over a Niners’ team that had gone 6-10 the year before he arrived.  The next season, the Niners were 13-3.

When he went to Michigan, the Wolverines were consistently pushed around by Ohio St. and sometimes lost to other Big-10 schools too.  It took Harbaugh several years to get the type of roster he wanted and that made Michigan into the Big-10 bully in place of Ohio St.

Does this mean I am betting on the Chargers to make it to the Super bowl next year?  No.  But I do believe that Jim Harbaugh will improve the Chargers’ record beyond 5-12 next year because he has a very talented QB and some pass-catching talent already in place.  I believe that prior performance and experience are important when projecting future results.

Here is the answer to the Quick Quiz:

• Bud Grant
• Dan Reeves
• Marv Levy
• Don Shula – – This is the one that took me a long while…

Finally, having dwelled on coaches and coaching today, let me close with this:

“The interesting thing about coaching is that you have to trouble the comfortable and comfort the troubled.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Let me start this morning with the NBA.  Steph Curry scored 60 points in a game against the Hawks over the weekend, but the Warriors lost in OT 141-134 – – Total Score 275 points.  Last week on the same night, here were two NBA game results:

• Mavs 148  Hawks 143   Total Score 291 points
• Pacers 133  Suns 131   Total Score 264 points

It was not that long ago when those sorts of scores were only seen in the NBA All-Star Game where only the best players in the league participated and where it was acknowledged that no defense would be played.  Now these scoring levels have become commonplace, and it does not make the games more enjoyable.

It is not just the team totals that are inflating.  It used to be that when a player scored 60 points in a game it was an event.  Now that feat earns a hearty “Hoo-ray” because it seems to be a routine occurrence.  In just the last two weeks, the NBA has seen the following performances:

• Luka Doncic  73 points
• Joel Embiid  70 points
• Karl Anthony Towns  62 points
• Devin Booker  62 points
• Steph Curry  60 points

Might I suggest that the NBA rules mavens begin thinking about a few rule changes that might bring a semblance of defense back into their games?

And while I am at it, let me also suggest that the NBA devote some thought/effort to several other issues facing the league:

• “Instant replay” is sucking the enjoyment out of too many games.  If you are a fan in the arena or a fan watching at home, time spent looking at a ref or two bent over at the waist looking at a tiny screen to check on some aspect of the play is not enjoyable.  Fans in attendance did not pay $200 to see the ref’s butt sticking up in the air; fans did not tune in for that sighting either.  And yet, that sight has become commonplace, and it seems to be expanding.
• [Aside:  Some “instant replay” reviews take so long it makes me wonder if the refs replay channel has ads on it and some of that time is consumed by their having to watch LIMU Emu – – and Doug.]
• The NBA has very successfully used the strategy of “marketing and branding its stars” ever since the days of “Bird and Magic”.  For the last decade, the three faces of the league have been LeBron James, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant.  LeBron is almost 40 years old and his game is not nearly as compelling as it was even two or three years ago; Curry is still a scoring machine (see above) but he is 35 years old; Durant is also 35 years old and has missed significant portions in two of the last four seasons.  If the NBA has a “Succession Plan” to slip new marketing stars into top positions, that plan is not clear to me.
• It seems that two weeks cannot go by without some reporting on “NBA expansion” usually in the form of reports that some group seeking a franchise has done something that seemingly puts pressure on the league.  I am sure that having 32 teams in the NBA is preferable to having 30 teams from the standpoint of creating divisions and scheduling and the like.  And I am equally sure that the current owners would love to split up the “Entrance Fees” paid by a couple of new teams.  Nonetheless, the talent to sustain more teams is not there; the NBA needs to resist the “pressures” and the temptations to expand.  If you think I am exaggerating about the lack of an additional 30 NBA roster spots, take some time to try and watch a G-League game on NBA TV.  The product is significantly inferior.

Switching gears …  Lindsey Horan is the captain of the US Women’s National Soccer Team.  In an interview with The Athletic, Horan had this to say about the fans who watch the USWNT’s games:

“Most of them aren’t smart.  They don’t know the game. They don’t understand. But it’s getting better and better.”

Horan seemed to be particularly perturbed at the level of credence that fans put in the TV analysts who try to explain the game; Horan does not think they know as much as they purport to know.  Maybe she is right; maybe not.  However, I am not sure in what universe it makes sense for her to say of her team’s fans that they “aren’t smart”.

Looking on the bright side, at least Horan did not call those fans “deplorables” …

Finally, I wondered above if NBA refs were subjected to advertisements on their “Instant Replay” channels; so, let me close with this observation from Sinclair Lewis:

“Advertising is a valuable economic factor because it is the cheapest way of selling goods, particularly if the goods are worthless.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The Washington Commanders had the last coaching vacancy in this round of “coach shuffling” until yesterday when they announced the hiring of Dan Quinn – – most recently the defensive coordinator of the Cowboys.  Like all other fanbases, the Commanders have a “negative element” in their fanbase who can never be satisfied; if the team were to win two Super Bowls in a row and lose the next one, some fans would consider that team to be a failure.  So, I was not overly surprised to see a small element of the fanbase react on one of the fanboy websites with this comment:

“… just another defensive retread like RR (Ron Rivera).”

I don’t know what that commenter thought the Commanders had to sell to a “hot prospect” in the coaching market.  In the NFL, a really good foundation for a team is the presence of:

• A franchise QB
• A solid offensive line – – to keep that franchise QB healthy
• An offensive playmaker – – AND – –
• At least an average defense

The Commanders have an offensive playmaker (Terry McLauren).  Other than that, they are – to be polite – woefully inadequate.  Yes, they have cap room and the second overall pick in the draft.  But cap room must be spent wisely and the last time the Commanders had the overall #2 pick they spent it on Chase Young who – to be polite – is a mediocre defensive lineman at best.

So, why would any “hot coaching prospect” with multiple potential suitors want that job?

There is another aspect to this hiring that I find interesting.  For the last couple of years, the Washington Post decried the fact that Eric Bienemy never got a head coaching job.  Most if not all of the paper’s columnists took up Bienemy’s cause to the point that they tried to imagine any reason for his lack of success in getting a head coaching job other than systemic racism among NFL owners.

Last year, the Commanders hired Eric Bienemy as their offensive coordinator.  He was on their staff for the whole year and was reportedly interviewed for the head coaching job – – which he obviously did not get.  This morning, Barry Sverluga’s column in the Post says that the Commanders now need to hire a “top offensive mind” to complement Dan Quinn’s defensive expertise.  In that column, Sverluga never considers Bienemy as that guy – – yet he was one of the folks decrying Bienemy’s failure to get a head coaching job prior to his arrival in DC.

NFL history is replete with excellent assistant coaches specializing in either offense or defense who washed out as head coaches.  Here are a bunch of examples off the top of my head in alphabetical order:

• Rod Marinelli
• Josh McDaniels
• Matt Patricia
• Richie Pettibon
• Buddy Ryan
• Rex Ryan
• Arthur Smith
• Steve Spagnuolo
• Charlie Weis

Josh Harris has been around the Commanders for all last season; he got to see enough of the team and the coaching staff to decide to fire Ron Rivera and start a major reconstruction of the roster.  At the same time, he also had the opportunity to observe and watch Eric Bienemy do his job – – and when it came time to make the call for a new head coach, Josh Harris passed on Bienemy.  Make of all this what you will, but here is my take:

• Eric Bienemy is a good – – not great – – offensive coach. 
• In Kansas City he benefited from close association with a very innovative offensive-minded head coach (Andy Reid) and had outstanding offensive talent on the field to execute the plays that were called (Mahomes, Kelcie, Tyreek Hill …) 
• In Washington, he was the sole “offensive-guy” on the staff and had significantly less on-field talent to execute his plays. 
• When in the “Chiefs’ environment” Bienemy went to the Super Bowl. 
• When in the “Commanders’ environment”, Bienemy went 4-13.

Dan Quinn has been a very successful defensive coordinator for the Seahawks and the Cowboys in his career.  His previous head coaching gig was with the Falcons for five-and-a-third seasons; his overall record there was 43-42-0 with two playoff appearances and one Super Bowl appearance.  With apologies to the fanboy I quoted above, Dan Quinn looks to be to be a perfectly adequate selection as the Commanders’ head coach who has a significant challenge ahead of him in gutting the current roster and finding improvements almost everywhere on the team.  He is a “retread” only in the sense that he has had a head coaching job in the past from which he was fired.  Then again, so did Bill Belichick – – and he worked out OK in New England.

As this NFL coaching version of “Musical Chairs” comes to a close, Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel do not have jobs in the NFL.  Raise your hand if you saw that coming…

I have made it clear that I believe Dan Quinn has a difficult task ahead of him.  So let me close today with this observation by John Madden that may have relevance to Quinn’s situation:

 “The road to Easy Street goes through the sewer.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………