Author: Jack

Why No Tennis Tuesdays…

I mentioned in my first Football Friday for this season that I have a former colleague who has lobbied for Tennis Tuesday to be a feature of these rants.  Obviously, if I were to attempt to do that, I would need to pay a lot of attention to tennis so that I would have some perspective and/or basis for commentary on things happening in that sport.  Right now, the US Open is underway and a happenstance in that tournament pretty much assures that I will not be pondering a deeper dive into the events of tennis.

Mike Bryan is an elite doubles player; he teams with his brother, Bob; they were entrants in this year’s US Open.  Let me be clear; I do not know Mike Bryan from Mike Tyson or Brian Williams; if Mike Bryan walked into my home and bit me on the ankle, I would have to ask him his name.  Mike Bryan was fined $10K by the tennis mavens for the following incident:

  • There was a shot that was ruled as “in” by the line judge.
  • The Bryan Brothers requested a review and the review showed that the ball was “out” and that the line judge made an incorrect call.
  • After the ruling was reversed, Mike Bryan took his tennis racket and placed the head of the racket against his shoulder such that the handle was pointed outward.  Then he “pretended it was a rifle” and aimed it at the line judge.

That behavior engendered a $10K fine and that is absolutely nothing more than Virtue Signaling on the part of the tennis mavens – and Virtue Signaling is something we have in over-abundance to the point that Virtue Signaling needs to attract scorn.  Look, if what Mike Bryan did was sooo egregious that it required a Virtue Signaling response, why not set the stakes such that he would never think of doing something like that again – and neither would any other tennis player no matter how much of a “bad-boy” he might be.  What might such a punishment be?

  • How about declaring that he and his brother are disqualified from the match and that they are eliminated from the US Open and their opponents will move to the next round of the tournament.

Please don’t tell me that is an over-reaction because I think fining someone $10K for pretending that a tennis racket is a rifle is either a gross over-reaction or a feckless gesture.  [You may take your pick here.]  This is the “grown-up version” of an elementary school principal sending a kindergartener home for pointing his index finger at a classmate and saying “Bang!”  That principal would be over-reacting and Virtue Signaling; and so were the “tennis mavens”.

Meanwhile, in another corner of the tennis-world, the tennis coach at UNC-Charlotte recently resigned his position “to pursue a new career opportunity”.  The resignation came only a couple of weeks before the intercollegiate tennis season was to begin and the press reports in the Charlotte Observer did not elaborate on the specifics of the “new career opportunity”.  The paper did report, however, a few other things that may have a bearing on the coach’s decision:

  1. His record at UNC-Charlotte was 34-44 over a 3-year span.  I am not suggesting here that he was nudged out the door, but with that record, I don’t think the Athletic Director lost a lot of sleep while pondering how to maintain the tradition of the tennis program at the school.
  2. The coach is the subject of a defamation lawsuit bright against him by one of his former players who alleges that he was kicked off the team by the coach after the coach fabricated a story/situation that accused the player of bullying one of his teammates.
  3. The lawsuit also alleges that the coach was in fact the bully and that he engaged in several incidents of “improper behavior”.

Here is a link to the story in the Charlotte Observer.

In the past, I have banged on Florida baseball fans in Tampa and in Miami for not supporting MLB teams in their area.  Lest anyone suspect that I harbor some deep inner-hatred for Floridians, allow me to bang on the baseball fans in the Washington DC area right now.  Please recall, these are the fans who – according to local legend – yearned for the return of baseball for 35 years after the second incarnation of the Washington Senators left town due to lack of fan support.  With that local legend out there, let’s look at some data:

  • The Washington Nationals have been over .500 every year since 2012.
  • The Washington Nationals have won the NL East 4 times since 2012.
  • Notwithstanding the on-field success of the Nats, their attendance in 2019 is embarrassing – or at least contradicts the “local legend”.

Far too much has been made of the league-wide drop in attendance for MLB games in 2019.  In fact, the average game in MLB in 2019 draws 404 fewer fans than the average game did in 2018 up to this part of the season.  However, in Washington – where the team has been on fire since June 1st and where the team is in the midst of a division race and a wildcard race – the average attendance this year is down 3,929 fans per game.  That is not quite 10 times the average loss in attendance for MLB.  For the record, the only NL team with a larger attendance decline from 2018 to 2019 is the SF Giants.

The Nats’ attendance in 2019 is down 12.3%.  The Nats give tickets away on sports radio shows every day the team plays at home; the Nats offer some tickets for $10 to games that are less appealing than some others.  And they still average only about 60% of capacity.

Monday of this week was Labor Day and the Nats hosted the Mets.  Remember, the Nats are in the middle of a pennant race and a wildcard race and the Mets are a division rival.  Attendance that day was 25,329 – which was about 2600 fans fewer than what the Nats have drawn on average in 2019.  Oh, by the way, at least 30% of the Labor Day crowd – and maybe as much as 40% of it – were Mets’ fans wearing Mets’ colors and chanting “Let’s Go Mets!”

I told you what the “local legend” is.  The “local reality” is that Washington DC is not a baseball town today and was not a baseball town when the Washington Senators were here.

Finally, let me close today with two comments from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times pertinent to baseball attendance:

“Greenland is the least densely populated nation in the world according to 24/7 Wall Street with only 0.4 people per square mile.

“In other words, it’s the Marlins Park of countries.”

And …

“University of Chicago researchers are working on a pill to treat loneliness.

“They say it’ll come in especially handy if you’re ever in the stands at a Marlins game.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

NFL Season Preedictions – 2019

For those who have joined in this madness over the last year, this is an annual event here in Curmudgeon Central.  Demonstrating my inexhaustible capacity to absorb embarrassment, I try to make season-long predictions for the NFL.  Oh, but I do not build in some cover when I do that by sticking to generalized predictions; rather, I will set out here NFL coaches I think are on the hot seat and could be coaching for their job this year and – in an even more reckless endeavor – I will predict the final record for all 32 teams in the NFL.

This would be fun if I just waited until about December 15th and then quietly took down all evidence of these predictions such that there could be no “day of reckoning” once the 2019 regular season ends on 29 December 2019.  However, I do not take down the predictions; in fact, I will come back and give them grades once the regular season is over.  Believe it or not, this is what I call fun and games…

One more bit of boilerplate needs explanation now.  I do not love or hate any NFL team to the exclusion of any other team.  There is no deep-seated hatred to be found in these predictions.  When I inevitably underestimate one team’s record for 2019, that was not based on a longstanding grudge I have with that team or that city or the colors of its uniforms.  I do not owe the team or its fans any apologies; what I owe them – and everyone – is the admission that I was wrong in my prediction(s).  And, I shall do that…

I will begin with my list of NFL Coaches on the Hot Seat.  Last year, I mentioned 8 coaches.  I said one of them would be on a hot seat but ought not to be.  He was fired anyway.  Of the other 7 on my list, 5 lost their jobs.  Am I a hex on the NFL coaches who make it to this list?  If I were given to self-flattery, I might claim such a connection.

Anyway, here is my 2019 list of 8 Coaches on the Hot Seat for 2019 – presented in alphabetical order lest someone infer much more to this screed that is intended:

  1. Jason Garrett (Cowboys):  He was on the list last year; when the Cowboys went 10-6 and won the NFC East, his job was saved – – but he did not get a contract extension and his deal is finished at the end of this year.  Garrett has been the Cowboys’ Head Coach since the middle of the 2010 season; over that period, his coaching record is 77-59.  Here’s the rub; he has been the head coach for 8 full seasons; he has only made the playoffs 3 times and his playoff record is 2-3.
  2. Jay Gruden (Skins):  Like Garrett, he too was on last year’s list and managed to survive despite failing to make the playoffs.  Who knows; did the catastrophic leg injury to Alex Smith save his job?  Gruden is on thinner ice that Garrett.  He has been the head Coach of the Skins for 5 seasons; his cumulative record is 35-44-1; last season the Skins were 4-12; Gruden’s teams made the playoffs only one time and the playoff record is 0-1.  I suspect that Jay Gruden needs to make the playoffs to keep his job at the end of this season.
  3. Doug Marrone (Jags):  After the 2017 season, the Jags had the Patriots on the ropes in the 4th quarter of a playoff game; what happened was another miracle comeback by Tom Brady and the Jags went into a funk that lasted through all of 2018.  After missing out on a real shot to play in the Super Bowl, the Jags laid a giant egg last year going 5-11.
  4. Bill O’Brien (Texans):  He has made the playoffs in 3 of his 5 seasons in Houston but his playoff record is 1-3.  Moreover, his overall regular season record is a not-so-hot 42-38.  He could become a target of fans in Houston if the team is mediocre again in 2019.
  5. Matt Patricia (Lions):  Year One in Detroit was an uninspiring 6-10.  The Lions spent some serious money in the free agency market this offseason, so I suspect the expectation for Patricia – – and to a lesser degree for Matt Stafford – – is a playoff appearance and at least a competitive effort in the playoffs.  That expectation is not likely to be fulfilled for the simple reason that the Lions are in a division with three teams with better rosters than the one in Detroit.
  6. Ron Rivera (Panthers):  I put him here because the Panthers have a new owner and the new owner inherited Rivera; he did not select Rivera himself.  Rivera has taken the Panthers to the Super Bowl – losing there to the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning – but in the “what have you done for me lately” atmosphere of the NFL, his Panthers have been 13-19 in the last two seasons.
  7. Dan Quinn (Falcons):  His team underwhelmed last year missing the playoffs and going 7-9 for the season.  This year, Quinn has a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator (Quinn will call the defensive plays himself to start the season).  He also changed out the special teams’ coach meaning that he is the last man standing in the coaching hierarchy.  If that change produces another 7-9 season, look for the next obvious change to be made and for Quinn to be looking for work elsewhere.
  8. Mike Zimmer (Vikes):  He is working on the final year of his contract and no extension was offered.  The Vikes went 13-3 in 2017 and then spent big bucks to sign Kirk Cousins as their QB only to go 8-7-1 in 2018 and miss the playoffs.  If anything like that happens again in 2019, Zimmer will be looking for work.

But that coaching stuff is merely the appetizer course here.  From here on out things will stray from logic to wild extrapolation.  It is time to go division-by-division through the NFL and to predict the exact record for every team.  For no particular reason, I shall start with the AFC West.  Based on my admittedly – – and proven over the long-term – – hazy crystal ball, this will be the best division in the NFL.  I believe the cumulative record for the 4 teams here will be 35-29.  Last year, the Chiefs and Chargers went toe-to-toe in the division until late December; both teams are back for this year with formidable talent.  I think the most interesting part of this division is what the “other two teams” – – the Raiders and the Broncos – – do in 2019.

  • I like the Chiefs to win the AFC West with a record of 13-3.  I know that it is fashionable to pick division winners to “take a step back” or to “come back to the pack” in the next season; nonetheless, I don’t think the Chiefs are going to do that sort of thing.  I say that while acknowledging that it is unreasonable to expect Patrick Mahomes to throw 50 TD passes again in 2019.  Their Achilles Heel last year was the defense; they have made changes on that side of the ball – – and presumably they know what they are doing.  Look … in their losses last year, the Chiefs scored an average of 39.7 points; NFL teams are not supposed to lose ANY games when they score that many points.  Frank Clark and Tyrann Matthieu are in KC to see that no such thing happens again this year.
  • I like the Chargers to finish second here with a record of 11-5.  Last year, the Chiefs and the Chargers fought it out to the end of the season – – and that could happen again.  I like the Chargers, but I am not thrilled by their WR corps.  In addition, their “situation”/”relationship” with Melvyn Gordon is sub-optimal to say the least.  Learning that Russel Okung will miss the first 6 weeks of the season – – at least – – is not a plus either.  The Chargers very well may have been able to sneak up on a couple of opponents last year and should not have that luxury this year.  I think they will take a minor step back this year and finish 11-5.
  • I like the Raiders to finish 6-10.  Before I am designated as persona non grata in the Black Hole – – where I would never choose to watch a game in the first place – – may I point out that this prediction represents a 50% improvement over last year’s 4-12 record.  If the Raiders are to be even more improved than my 50% estimate they will need to upgrade significantly their pass rush and their OL.  Adding Antonio Brown and Josh Jacobs to the offense is a help – – but neither addition addresses either of those two glaring needs and that assumes that Antonio Brown does not go “’round the bend” between now and December 1.  The Raiders host the Cincy Bengals in Week 11; that will allow Vontaze Burfict to renew acquaintances with his former teammates with Black Hole denizens looking on.  Let the good times roll…
  • I like the Broncos to bring up the rear in this division with a record of 5-11.  John Elway may indeed be the best all-around QB ever in the NFL; nevertheless, his ability to look at other QBs and figure out which one(s) might also be semi-great is totally suspect.  This year the Broncos will go with Joe Flacco at QB; Flacco is a Super Bowl winner whose career has been on a downslope since that victory in February 2013.  Bradley Chubb and Von Miller give the defense elite pass rushers as bookends on the defensive line.  Vic Fangio was a critical part of the top-rated Bears’ defense last year and he has some pieces to work with here in Denver…  I think a most important element here is the ability of WR Emmanuel Sanders to return from his injury and play at full speed.  If he cannot, I don’t know who will catch Joe Flacco’s throws.

For the AFC North, I project a weak showing in 2019.  I think the division’s overall record will be 29-35 making then tied with the AFC South as the worst division in the NFL.  Lots of folks are picking the Browns to win this division in 2019; for the record, the last time the Browns did such a thing was in 1989; and back then, there was no such thing as the AFC North.  Oh, and by the way, the team that did that back in 1989 is now known as the Baltimore Ravens…

  • I like the Steelers to win the division with a record of 10-6.  I think the Steelers will benefit from the lowered level of drama enveloping the team now that Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell are elsewhere.  Ben Roethlisberger and coach Mike Tomlin are the “Steel City Survivors” of the controversy from the past year; if things do not quiet down, either or both might the next one with a ticket to “Anywhere Else, USA”.  The Steelers were not a bad team last year; they simply underperformed to “Steelers-standards”.  Yes, they limped home with a 9-7-1 record, but remember that they were also 7-2-1 in November last season.  I do not do Fantasy Football; I do not like Fantasy Football.  Nonetheless, if I were playing Fantasy Football, I would definitely want to have JuJu Smith-Shuster on my team this year.
  • I like the Ravens to finish 8-8.  For the first time in next to forever, the defense in Baltimore is something to question.  Terrell Suggs, CJ Mosely, Eric Weddle and ZaDarious Smith are all missing from the Ravens’ defense in 2019.  Make no mistake, none of those guys are youngsters; make no mistake, none of those guys are stumblebums either.  The Ravens’ offense will be totally different this year with Lamar Jackson at the helm in place of Joe Flacco.  Casting no aspersions on either QB, it might be difficult to identify two more different QBs in terms of style and versatility.  Adding Mark Ingram cannot hurt the offense; adding Earl Thomas has to help the defense.  Oh, by the way, in Week 7 on Sunday Night Football you can see Earl Thomas going against his former teammates and his former coach – – the folks he flipped off as he was motored off the field on a cart last season.  Let the good times roll…
  • I like the Browns to finish 8-8.  I know that everyone has the Browns as their “bold pick” for the AFC representative in the Super Bowl next February.  I do not share that euphoria.  Yes, the Browns were significantly improved in 2018 with a final record of 7-8-1.  However, recognize that the Browns were playing a “last-place schedule in 2018 and those 7 wins did not come against any of the NFL powerhouses.  This year the schedule is more difficult; while I believe the team will improve over last year, I don’t think the record will improve significantly.  The Browns’ defense gave up 5 yards per carry against the run last year; if that does not improve significantly, it will not matter how much the offense has improved.  The team has more talent on offense than it did last year; the team added help on the DL (Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson).  If it all blends seamlessly, the Browns may surprise me and win this division; if all those egos bubble to the top and rookie coach Freddie Kitchens is not able to tamp them down, the Browns could fall back to 5-11.  We shall see…
  • I like the Bengals to take up the rear in this division with a record of 3-13.  I would say the offense here is “OK” with a fully functional AJ Green; if he is even 10% hobbled, the Bengals’ offense could be “scoring challenged”.  The Bengals have a new head coach – Zac Taylor – and he has inherited a mess.  The good news for Bengals’ fans is that their very high draft pick in the 2020 NFL Draft will be worth a lot to some team that thinks it is a player or so away from playoff glory.

Next up, I’ll tackle the AFC South.  This division prediction underwent a complete re-evaluation last week when Andrew Luck announced his retirement from the NFL.  Until that moment, I blithely figured that his calf injury that then morphed into a bone/ankle injury was just an excuse to hold him out of harm’s way in the Exhibition Season and the early practice sessions.  Perhaps that will give you an insight as to why Pollyanna is not a welcome visitor to Curmudgeon Central.  As noted above, I think the overall record for this division will be 29-35.

  • I like the Texans to win this division with a record of 10-6.  No team in the NFL was happier to hear the Andrew Luck retirement announcement than the Houston Texans. Last year, the Texans’ OL surrendered 62 sacks; that must improve in 2019 for my prediction to come true and for Deshaun Watson to remain ambulatory and – perhaps – for Bill O’Brien to keep his job.  The fact that they drafted two offensive tackles tells me that they recognize that they have a problem there.  The Texans will also take the path less traveled this year by doing without a GM; they will do this by committee and wing it.  The owner says this will be a leaner and flatter organization; 31 other NFL teams seem not to agree.  Somehow, that “leaner and flatter organization” was not able to come to terms with Jadevon Clowney over the past six months and that is an indictment on that “leaner and flatter organization”; shipping him off to Seattle in late August meant they got pennies on the dollar for Clowney.  Maybe the Front Office redeemed itself making a late trade to acquire Laremy Tunsil to play left tackle and – hopefully – provide some time and protection for DeShaun Watson.  Lamar Miller is out for the year; it might be interesting to see how this “leaner and flatter organization” deals with that.  The early schedule for the Texans is not going to be easy; they begin with at Saints, Jags, at Chargers, Panthers, Falcons, at Chiefs, at Colts.  And that just gets them to Halloween…
  • I like the Colts to finish second in the division with a 9-7 record.  Before Andrew Luck retired, I had the Colts winning this division handily at 12-4.  Since I have them only a game behind the Texans, they might still win the AFC South if they can sweep the two games with the Texans.  [Those games are October 20 and November 21.]  As they say on the TV show, The Price Is Right, Jacoby Brisset … come on down!
  • I like the Titans to finish third in the division with a record of 6-10.  I think we have come to the time when we need to ask a simple question.  Is Marcus Mariota a franchise QB or not?  Another burning question for the Titans as a team is this one.  Why is it that they can rise-up and beat just about anyone on one week and then turn around and lose to a certified bottom-feeder the next week?  New additions to the roster include Adam Humphries, Ryan Tannehill and Cameron Wake; they will certainly not hurt the team, but I doubt they are the engine that propels the Titans to playoff contention in 2019.
  • I like the Jags to bring up the rear in the division with a record of 4-12.  I have no doubt that Nick Foles will be an upgrade at QB over Blake Bortles, but I do not think that Nick Foles can carry a team by himself and the WR corps in Jax is not going to scare many defensive coordinators.  I know that the Jags have Leonard Fournette as a featured RB and that Fournette is plenty talented, but he is also one of the biggest meatheads in the league.  I would not be surprised to learn that his nickname within the organization is “WTF”.  The calling card for the Jags remains their defense which will be strong again in 2019.

[Aside:  Bortles in with the Rams this year.  Imagine if Jared Goff is injured and Bortles blossoms in Sean McVay’s “system”.  That would make the Jags’ coaches look like the dunces of the western world and would elevate the perception of Sean McVay’s football acumen to the level of Bill Belichick, Paul Brown, Vince Lombardi and Don Shula.]

Last in the AFC, will be the AFC East.  This division has been anything but inscrutable for the last decade-and-a-half.  The Patriots have won the AFC East in the last 10 consecutive seasons and have won it 15 of the last 16 years.  Last year, the Pats were 11-5 which was their worst record in 9 years – – and yet they managed to go on and win the Super Bowl.  I think the cumulative record for this division will be 31-33.

  • Absent a major disaster striking Foxboro MA, I like the Patriots to win the division with a record of 12-4.  Tom Brady embodies this team in a way that transcends his leadership and QB play.  Like the team itself, Brady is like Old Man River; he and the Pats don’t say nothing, they just keep rolling along.  The only question mark for this year in my mind is the receiving corps for the Pats.  Yes, they signed Julian Edelman to a contract extension and that is a good thing.  However, after that, there are good players with question marks all over them.  Is rookie N’Keal Harry the real deal?  Can Philip Dorsett do anything other than run fly patterns?  How long until Josh Gordon is suspended yet one more time?  Notwithstanding all those questions, the Pats will have the answers they need to win the AFC East once again.  Maybe the biggest question they will have to resolve is the sub for center David Andrews who will miss some/most/all of the season with blood clots in his lung.
  • I like the Bills to finish second in the division with a record of 9-7.  The Bills tried to upgrade their WRs in the offseason acquiring Cole Beasley and John Brown.  The team would have had the oldest tandem of RBs in NFL history with LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore sharing touches as the lead RBs.  Their combined age is 67 as of this morning.  However, McCoy’s advancing age in conjunction with his $6.3M pricetag for the year led the Bills to release him just last weekend.  I expect QB Josh Allen to show improvement in Year 2 of his career as he learns to play QB in ways other than relying on his natural athletic abilities.
  •  I like the Jets to finish third in the division with a record of 8-8.  I like what the Jets did by signing LeVeon Bell to take some of the pressure off Sam Darnold as he enters his second year as an NFL QB.  Equally important, I think the addition of Gregg Williams as the defensive coordinator is a step in the right direction.  Adam Gase and his staff need to clear the air in the organization; I believe the Jets are the only team in the NFL to lose 11 games in each of the last 3 seasons; that is a toxic atmosphere.  I am counting on a significant change in the approach that the Jets have to the season because I think they will double their win total from last year to this year.  Circle the Jets/Steelers game in Week 16 as an interesting one as LeVeon Bell and his former teammates get together…

[Aside:  I believe the longest road trip for the Jets in 2019 will be to Jax and to Miami in successive weeks in late October/early November.  The Jets never leave the Eastern Time Zone this year.]

  • I like the Dolphins to bring up the rear in the division with a 2-14 record.  With a QB tandem of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen – in whatever order you prefer – the Dolphins will probably lead the NFL in IQ points at the QB position.  Unfortunately for Dolphins’ fans, IQ points do not equate to scoreboard points.  Fans need to resist the temptation to look at the world through “Rosen-colored glasses”; he must show that he can produce wins in whatever system Brian Flores installs for the team. The new coach in Miami, Brian Flores, exudes energy and optimism; I doubt he will have the same bearing come December.  Yes, the Dolphins will be on the clock starting in early January 2020 with the overall #1 pick in the NFL Draft.  Moreover, they will be dominating in the draft for the next year or two having acquired multiple first round picks and a second round pick from the Texans in the trade for Laremy Tunsil.  [Aside:  With that trade, the Dolphins have given up any pretense that they are doing anything other than tanking 2019…]

To recap the AFC, here is my playoff picture:

  • Chiefs – – BYE week and home field advantage in the playoffs
  • Pats – – BYE week
  • Steelers/Texans – – depends on tie breakers; they do not play each other in 2019
  • Texans/Steelers – – depends on tie breakers … Is there an echo in here?
  • Chargers – – first AFC wildcard team
  • Colts/Bills – – depends on tie breakers; they do not play each other in 2019.

Moving over to the NFC, I will maintain geographic parallelism and begin with the NFC West.  I think the total record for this division will be 33-31.  There are two “new QBs” in the division this year if you count the returning Jimmy Garoppolo as a “newbie” since his tenure there last year was so short.  The teams at the top of the division have a lot more “certainty” going for them under center.

  • I like the Rams to win the division with a record of 12-4.  I don’t care what the Rams say or what the Rams’ doctors say or even what Todd Gurley says, but Gurley was injured to the point where he was a liability not an asset at the end of last season.  The Rams want/need him back to being Todd Gurley again and until he shows that in a real game, that is a significant question mark for the team.  One other thing from last year is that the Rams missed Cooper Kupp as their possession receiver a whole lot after he went down.  Presumably, he is back and ready to play at his normal level.  I am not an advocate for the “Super Bowl Hangover” theories, but the fact is that the Pats de-pantsed the Rams in that game last February.  If there is such a “curse”, it might take hold here…  The additions of Eric Weddle and Clay Matthews in the off season will provide veteran leadership to the defense.
  • I like the Seahawks to finish second in the division with a record of 10-6.  With the dissolution of the Legion of Boom, there were some questions on defense for the Seahawks including who will provide their pass rush [Answer:  Jadevon Clowney acquired from the Texans at the 11th hour.]  and who will be their shut-down cornerback [Still TBD…].  On the plus side, it appears that the team has assembled a competent OL after years of chaos there.  If that is the case and the Seahawks can run the ball a bit and Russell Wilson can play without fearing for his life every third play, the Seahawks will be a tough out in 2019.
  • I like the Niners to finish third in the division with a record of 7-9.  The Niners will get Jimmy G back from injury and RB, Jerrick McKinnon back from injury this year; those are two big plusses for the offense.  However, name the top 3 receivers on the team.  OK, name 2 receivers on the team.  How about any pass catchers?  Therein lies the problem for the Niners.  On defense, the team has clearly decided to focus on edge rushers trading for Dee Ford and drafting Nick Bosa.  The Niners won only 4 games in 2018; I think they make a big improvement in 2019.
  • I like the Cardinals to end up looking up at the rest of the division with a 4-12 record.  There is a chance that Kliff Kingsbury’s offense rattles NFL defensive coordinators for the first year the same way Chip Kelly’s unusual offense did.  However, I don’t know that the Cards have the same talent level that Kelly’s Eagles did.  With Patrick Peterson suspended for 6 games, you can add “defensive backfield” to the list of weaknesses for this team.  That is a bad thing because last year the Cards gave up an NFL high of 154.9 yards per game on the ground.  Lest anyone think I am banging on the Cardinals unnecessarily, please note that I project them to have more wins this year (4) than they did last year (3).

[Aside:  The Cards spent a lot of draft capital to get Josh Rosen last year and then jettisoned him for dimes on the dollar to take Kyler Murray this year.  If that works the Cards’ braintrust will be “NFL made men” for a decade or so; if it sinks like a lead turd, they will be looking for new jobs at a local Applebee’s.  Stay tuned…]

In the NFC North, the Bears are the defending champions and they relied heavily on an inordinate number of takeaways last year to propel them to that division title.  The tendency is for teams that stand out like that in a single season to regress to the mean in the next year.  Two other teams have significant question marks – – and then there are the Lions.  This was a most difficult division to analyze; I project its cumulative record to be 34-30.

  • I like the Bears to repeat as division champs with an 11-5 record.  I mentioned above how important takeaways were to the Bears last year.  They had 36 of them; most teams were in the low to mid-20s.  The Bears have a new defensive coordinator as Vic Fangio took over the top job in Denver; Chuck Pagano has been a successful DC before…  The Bears do have a “kicking problem”.  Their season ended in the playoffs against the Eagles on the famous “double-doink” field goal try.  The Bears had 8 kickers in camp at one point trying to find a new one.  It’s too easy to rain on the Bears for that “problem” but when that is a team’s biggest problem in August, that means things are looking pretty good.  Here is another geeky stat to think about …  In 2018, the Bears never trailed in 9 of their 16 games.  It is much more difficult to “play from behind” and the Bears and Mitch Trubisky rarely had to do that.  Can that sort of situation continue to obtain in 2019?
  • I like the Packers to finish “second” in the division with a 9-7 record.  There will be serious scrutiny on the Matt LaFleur/Aaron Rodgers “relationship” as the season unfolds.  Based on last year’s results, the Packers’ defense needed a whole lot more pass rushing so they went out and acquired “the Smith Brothers” – Preston and ZaDarius – in addition to drafting Rashan Gary with their first-round pick.  Hopefully, that will produce some positive results there.  The team lost two of its long-term assets in Clay Matthews and Randall Cobb in the offseason.  With Matthews and Cobb gone, Aaron Rodgers will need to find new partners for his State Farm commercials…
  • I like the Vikings to finish “third” in the division with a 9-7 record.  The Vikes and the Packers play each other twice; if one team sweeps that series, that team will finish “second in this division”.  If it is a split, then the tiebreakers get way too difficult to forecast.  This should be a put-up-or-shut-up season for Kirk Cousins, and it will lean toward the “put-up” side of that scale if Dalvin Cook can stay healthy for the entirety of the 2019 season.
  • I like the Lions to chase the rest of the division across the finish line in 2019 with a 5-11 record.  I said this was the most difficult division to analyze.  There is one thing that is reliably consistent here from year to year: The Lions will be … the Lions.  Believe it or not, this will be Matthew Stafford’s 10th year in the NFL; he has had the Lions in the playoffs 3 times in that span and the Lions have exited the playoffs in their first game all 3 times.  Notwithstanding Coach Matt Patricia’s defensive pedigree, the Lions defense was hugely inconsistent last year, and it does not look a whole lot better to me this year.  That defensive pedigree comes from Patricia’s time with the Patriots; but historically, time with the Pats as a coordinator has not translated into success as a head coach.  See Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini, Josh McDaniels, Charlie Weiss …

Before moving on to the next set of predictions, the 2019 NFL season – – the 100th such regular season – – will start with a classic NFC North match-up.  The Bears and Packers have played each other 198 times over the past 99 seasons; the Packers lead the overall series 97-95-6.  The teams split their games last year.  This is a fitting way for the NFL to start its centennial season.

Moving on to the NFC South, both the Falcons and the Panthers were bitten badly by the injury bugs last season and both waddled to the finish line with 7-9 records.  Surely, the football gods will not inflict the same plague on these teams again in 2019 – – right?  I have the cumulative record for this division at 34-30.

  • I like the Saints to win the division with a 12-4 record.  People talk about Super Bowl Hangovers for teams that lost in that game but if there is going to be any “hangover” team in the NFC, it would have to be the Saints who were the victims of such a bad call by the officials that the single play caused a massive rule change for the entire league.  Actually, the Saints have been eliminated from the playoffs for 2 years in a row on bizarre plays; remember in 2017 it was the “Minneapolis Miracle” that sent the Saints home.  Even with Mark Ingram gone in free agency, the Saints have what they need to have on offense; if the defense plays well, this is a team to fear in January.
  • I like the Falcons to finish second in the division with a 10-6 record.  The Falcons must improve their pass rush; they allowed QBs last year to sit in the picket and pick apart the secondary to the tune of 259.6 yards per game.  The Falcons have a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator and Dan Quinn is squarely on the hot seat this year.  Let me say here that I think Calvin Ridley is a top-shelf WR who is overlooked to some extent because Julio Jones is on the same team.  I think the Falcons home game on October 27 (Week 8) is a critical game for them.  That game will welcome the Seattle Seahawks to Atlanta, and I have both teams pegged at 10-6 for the season and – a tad of foreshadowing here – I think 10-6 is the record for the 2nd and final NFC wildcard slot.  So, the winner of that game in October will have the tiebreaker…
  • I like the Panthers to finish third in the division with an 8-8 record.  Cam Newton’s shoulder must be better than it was at the end of last year when he could not throw the ball more than about 35 yards in the air; that alone is a big improvement for the team.  With Norv Turner designing and running the offense, the QB must be able to throw the ball downfield; that is a major feature of Turner’s offensive philosophy.  The question for the big thinkers in Carolina is this:  Has Cam Newton reached – or even passed – the peak of his prime?  In addition, the team now needs to find some pass rush pressure from their defensive linemen…  Head coach Ron Rivera will take over the defensive play-calling duties this year.
  • I think the Bucs will finish last in the division with a 4-12 record.  Bruce Arians may have tired quickly of his color analyst job on TV last year but with this team to coach, he may want to rethink his re-entry into NFL coaching.  [Aside:  I hope he stays where he is because I thought he was miserable as a color analyst; but that’s just me…]  The burning question in Tampa is the same one that is smoldering in Tennessee:  Is Jameis Winston an NFL franchise QB?  He has been around since 2015; last year was his best year statistically and yet the Bucs went 5-11.  Bruce Arians has helped more than a few NFL QBs move their games up to much higher planes of existence in the past so, can he be the guy to make Jameis Winston look like a bona fide overall #1 pick in the draft?

Last but not least, here is the skinny on the NFC East.  The four teams here split nicely into two “Haves” and two “Have-Nots”.  Overall, I think this division’s total record will be 31-33.  I think the Cowboys and the Eagles will dominate the division and will both finish with the same record.  They will meet twice (Week 7 in Dallas on Sunday Night Football and then again in Week 16 in Philly).  Those will be the two most important games on the calendar for both teams; a sweep by either one will make them the division champ and relegate the other one to the #1 wildcard slot.

  • I pick the Eagles to win the AFC East via a tiebreaker with a record of 11-5.  I think the Eagles and Cowboys will split their games head-to-head meaning that the tiebreaker will have to get down to scheduling minutiae.  Looking at the schedules for the Eagles and the Cowboys, I think the Eagles have an easier one, so I’ll give them the tiebreaker somewhere down the line – – like Conference record.  [Aside: The early schedule with road games at the Vikes, Packers and Falcons is not a piece of cake!]  The Eagles must have Carson Wentz stay healthy and play the whole season – something he has not done for the last 2 seasons.  The addition of DeSean Jackson gives the Eagles a viable downfield threat – – something they have not had for a while.  I think the addition of Malik Jackson to the defensive line was a positive move for the team.
  • I like the Cowboys to finish second in the AFC East via a tiebreaker with a record of 11-5.  Obviously, this gaze into the crystal ball assumes that Ezekiel Elliott will be in a Cowboys’ uniform for most if not all the games in 2019; Zeke is the key to that offense not the QB or any of the pass catchers.  The weak link in the Cowboys roster last year seemed to be the defensive backfield and whatever changes were made there over this offseason seem to me to be cosmetic as opposed to transformational.  The late schedule for the Cowboys is no picnic.  After the Pats come to town on Thanksgiving Day, the schedule reads Bills, at Bears, Rams, at Eagles.  If my vision for the Bills is accurate, this schedule could evoke a comment along the lines of “Great googly-moogly, get me outta here…”  [h/t Stranded in the Jungle by the Jay Hawks]
  • I think the Skins are the better of the two “Have Not” teams and will finish third in the NFC East with a record of 6-10.  The absence of Trent Williams at left tackle on offense is more important than it might be to the casual observer.  The fact is that Trent Williams was the single best player on the team simply because he is one of the five or six best offensive left tackles in the NFL – – and no other member of the Skins’ roster can even pretend to make that claim.  We now know that the Skins will go with Case Keenum as the starting QB at the beginning of the season.  That is the rational decision meaning that it was probably taken over the objection of Danny Boy Snyder who has seemingly attached his lips to the buttocks of Dwayne Haskins as the QB of the future for this franchise.  The Skins have a ton of question marks in addition to the ones implied above to include…  Is Darius Guice for real?  He was out for all last year and the Skins relied on 34-year old Adrian Peterson to be the lead back.  Before the 2019 season even starts, Peterson already has 2825 carries in his NFL career.  Who is going to catch the passes thrown by Case Keenum and/or Dwayne Haskins and/or Joe Flabeetz?  Jordan Reed is injured again in the exhibition season; the Skins were trying to trade Josh Doctson and when that did not work they cut him; Jameson Crowder left in free agency…

[Aside:  Skins’ and Vikes’ fans need to circle Week 8 on their calendars.  That is when the Skins go to Minnesota for a game that will feature former Skins’ QB – – Kirk Cousins – – against former Vikes’ QB – – Case Keenum.  My suspicion is that neither fanbase will be happy with their incumbent QB by that time in the 2019 NFL season.]

  • I think the Giants will be in the caboose of the division with a record of 3-13.  This team needs upgrades no matter where you look – – except for running back where Saquon Barkley is an unusual talent.  The Giants had two high draft picks in this year’s NFL Draft; they are going to get another one next year; they need to make sure all those high draft picks turn into impact players sooner than later.  The Giants traded Odell Beckham, Jr. in the off season and are probably happy to be relieved of his “drama”.  Their problem is that they cannot be happy to be relieved of his talent.  Sterling Shepard broke his thumb in training camp; Golden Tate will serve a 4-game suspension; Corey Coleman will miss the entire year with an ACL injury.  The healthy WR roster is mediocre at best.  The early schedule for the Giants is not so horrific, but in November the schedule reads Cowboys, at Jets, BYE WEEK, at Bears, Packers, at Eagles.  Ouch!

So, here is my playoff prediction picture for the NFC:

  • Saints/Rams – – tie breaker determined by the winner of the head-to-head game on Sept 15.  Winner gets a BYE week and home field advantage throughout the playoffs
  • Rams/Saints – – tie breaker determined by the loser of the head-to head game on Sept 15.  Loser gets a BYE week in the playoffs.
  • Bears – – tie breaker over Eagles
  • Eagles – – loser of tie breaker to Bears
  • Cowboys
  • Falcons/Seahawks – – winner of the head-to head game on October 27.

So, there you have it.  That is how the NFL season will unfold between now and January 2020.  If you fall into a coma tomorrow, you can rely – – sort of – – on these projections to get you up to speed quickly once you wake up on New Year’s Day.

Finally, Dwight Perry had this observation in the Seattle Times a few weeks ago that seems pertinent to the upcoming NFL season in 2019:

“Students in Oregon can now take ‘mental health days’ as excused absences, just like sick days.

“Arizonans had something similar last year — better known as the Mondays following Cardinals games.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A Lazy Labor Day…

We celebrate Labor Day by not engaging in much labor.  I took that to heart this morning when I awoke at 0710; glanced at the clock; remembered that today was Labor Day; rolled over and went back to sleep until 0945.  Let me say that it would not be very difficult to get used to that sort of a morning routine…

When the 32 NFL teams cut down from 90 players to 53 players on the roster, thee were a few guys who stood out on the list that I thought would get picked up fairly quickly.

  • RB LeSean McCoy signed with the Chiefs and reunited with Andy Reid.
  • RB Wendell Smallwood signed with the Skins
  • RB Charcandrick West is unsigned as of this morning – but I think he will find work,
  • WR Michael Floyd is a free agent – when he signs somewhere it will be his 6th team since 2016.
  • WR Jordan Matthews is unsigned now but should find a home soon.
  • TE Dwayne Allen is a good blocker and has averaged more than18 yards per catch for his career.
  • DL Muhammed Wilkerson missed most of last season; don’t know his injury status.
  • LB Shane Ray was a first-round pick in 2016 and is only 26 years old.
  • DBs Eric Berry and Sua Cravens have an injury history.
  • DB Teez Tabor was a second-round pick in 2017 and is only 23 years old.

Bob Molinaro had this item in a column last week in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“Long ball: The Minnesota Twins are on pace to break the MLB single-season home run record. Quick, can you name a Twins hitter? Not so easy, is it?”

I could name 4 players of the top of my head – – but that is not a lot considering that the Twins carry 40 players on their roster.  The 4 players that came quickly to mind included a pitcher, so he was not part of the Twins’ HR barrage.  Here are the 3 hitters:

  1. Byron Buxton
  2. Nelson Cruz
  3. Jorge Polanco.

I got an email from a reader on Sunday afternoon alerting me to the fact the Carlos Zambrano is still pitching in professional baseball.  Zambrano is a relief pitcher for the Chicago Dogs in the American Association.  Zambrano is 38 years old; his last affiliation with a major league club was in 2013 when he was in the Phillies’ organization with Clearwater in the Florida League.  His ERA with the Chicago Dogs is not all that great this year; he has pitched 61 innings to an ERA of 5.16.  On a positive note, Zambrano has recorded 51 strikeouts in those 61 innings.

High school football is a very big deal in the State of Texas.  The Prosper, TX school district is about 40 miles north of Dallas.  Prosper HS sold the naming rights for its new football stadium to Children’s Health – a pediatric health care provider in Dallas.  The deal runs for 10 years and the school district will collect $250K per year making the total value here $2.5M.  Children’s Health will also provide medical personnel on the sidelines for the games.  The Prosper HS district built the stadium for a total cost of $53M; the stadium has a capacity of 12,000 seats.

Finally, I think that Dwight Perry’s comment in the Seattle Times sums up succinctly and clearly the aftermath of Indy Colts’ fans booing Andrew Luck when he announced his retirement from football:

“Indianapolis Colts fans booed their very own franchise quarterback, Andrew Luck, when word of his retirement leaked out during a preseason game.

“Just thank your lucky stars that none of these fine people were on hand in 1939 at Yankee Stadium for Lou Gehrig Day.”

Those booing fans demonstrated a lot of class in that moment; too bad it was all low class…

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Football Friday 8/30/19

Like it or not; football season as we have known it for the past 100 years begins this week and it will run uninterruptedly through the first Sunday of February 2020.  Then, if all continues down the existing path, football season will be extended into the late Spring when XFL 2.0 commences.  The start of football season causes two things to happen here in Curmudgeon Central:

  1. It causes me to compile my annual predictions for every team in the league along with those NFL coaches I think are on a hot seat for the upcoming season.  [Update:  The first draft of that opus had to be revised when Andrew Luck retired; that revision is half-done; I am on schedule to publish those predictions on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.]
  2. It causes me to institute weekly rants loosely labeled as Football Fridays – notwithstanding the annual objection I get from one former colleague who lobbies for Tennis Tuesdays.

Today is the inaugural Football Friday for 2019.  For those who have hopped on this bus in the past year and for those who have erased from memory last season’s offerings, let me set a few boundary markers for what will happen here:

  • First and foremost, no one should take “Friday” literally.  I know the social and travel schedule that my long-suffering wife has set up for the two of us between now and Halloween.  There could well be some weeks where there is no Football Friday; there will surely be weeks where Football Friday could fall on a Wednesday.  I am going to try to do a long football focused rant every week.
  • I will follow the fortunes of Linfield College and its football season.  The reason is simple; Linfield has had a winning season in football every year since 1956.  If there is a longer streak of that kind in a team sport in the US, I am not aware of it.
  • I will comment on happenings from the games in the previous week in college and NFL football.
  • I will present the betting lines for interesting games in college football for the upcoming week with brief comments
  • I will comment on happenings from the games in the previous week in NFL football.
  • I will present the betting lines for all the NFL games for the upcoming week with brief comments.
  • I will try to come up with a betting “Six-Pack” of college and NFL games each week.  There are sure to be weeks where I will not find 6 games worth putting in that Six-Pack so consider that “feature” to be a sporadic one.  [Foreshadowing:  There is no Six-Pack this week.]
  • After Halloween, by which time we should be able to discern the truly awful college teams from the merely bad ones, I will begin  a count-down to name the 8 teams that I will nominate to be in my mythical SHOE Tournament which would determine the worst team in the country with play on the field.

So, that’s the outline for Football Fridays; and now, it is time to set sail on the first one.

The Linfield College Wildcats will not begin their season until 14 September.  On that Saturday, the team will have traveled from their campus in McMinnville, OR to Glassboro, NJ to take on Rowan University.  According to the computational website, WolframAlpha, that journey encompasses 2,450 miles.  As you might expect for a game involving two Division III schools, this is an out-of-conference game…

There were only 2 Division 1-A college football games last week.  In the first one, Florida rallied to beat Miami 24-20.  It was a sloppy game; the team that made the last mistake lost the game.  Nevertheless, there were some positive things for Miami to take from the game despite the “L” on their record:

  • The pundits think Florida is a “Top Ten team”.  Miami was in the lead early in the 4th quarter.
  • Miami started a freshman at QB who acquitted himself nicely against a strong SEC-quality defense.  Jarren Williams was 19 – 29 for 214 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs.
  • The Miami OL does need some work.  They allowed 10 sacks in the game and 16 tackles for a loss.

The Florida OL did not cover itself in glory here either.  Florida ran the ball 27 times for a total of 52 yards.  Hey, it’s still early in the season…

In the other contest, Arizona schlepped itself all the way to Hawaii.  While points were hard to come by in the Florida/Miami game, the scoreboard in Hawaii lit up like a pinball machine.  The final score was Hawaii 45 and Arizona 38 – – and on the final play of the game, the Arizona ballcarrier was dragged down at the 1 yardline missing out on the chance to tie the game and send it to OT.  Had that happened, the game might still be going on waiting for a defensive stop by either team.

The total offense by both teams here was 1128 yards.  I suspect that both coaches told their defenses that tackling was optional for this game.

In general college football news, there was a report earlier this month that the PAC-12 was considering starting some of their games at 9:00 AM on the west coast so that those games would be televised at noon on the east coast.  The idea was to get PAC-12 teams in front of more eyeballs that way.  Bob Molinaro had this comment in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot to sum up where that idea stands:

“Out West: Smart: The Pac-12 has decided not to start any football games at 9 a.m. Pacific Time. Dumb: The conference will continue to explore the idea for 2020.”

That sums it up perfectly…

I want to offer up a proposition wager here.  What will be the date on which there is the first seriously reported rumor about Urban Meyer returning to college football coaching?

  • I say it will be October 20.  Are you going Sooner or Later?

Utah State’s football coach, Gary Andersen, has seen his career circle back on itself.  Back in 2012, he led Utah State to an 11-2 record and the team was ranked #16 in the country in the AP poll.  That got him the job at Wisconsin where his teams went 19-7 in his two years there.  He resigned from Wisconsin to take the job at Oregon State complaining that the academic admissions restrictions at Wisconsin made it very difficult to compete with other Big 10 schools.

Andersen spent 2.5 seasons at Oregon State and the results were awful.  Overall his teams went 7-23; even less impressive was the record of 3-18 against PAC-12 opponents.  He was fired in the middle of the 2017 season and he spent last year as the associate head coach at Utah.  Now, he has gone back to Utah State where it all began…

Games of Interest:

This week the rest of the college football teams swing into action.  We all should know that pre-season polls in college football – – and college basketball – – are generally worthless except to give a landscape view of teams we should expect to be pretty good as opposed to the rest of the teams in the country.  Since I cannot pretend to have studied the 130 Division 1-A teams in depth to have some personal insight into which teams will be good and which will be “disappointing”, I will have to focus to some extent on the worthless pre-season polling results.

I said above that some of the Football Fridays this year should not be taken literally.  This is one of them.  I am writing this on Thursday morning because I will be traveling later today to visit relatives.  I will have the opportunity to post this rant on Friday morning but would not have nearly the amount of time it would take to write it from scratch.  Since that is the case, I will not be able to mention anything about the Clemson/Georgia Tech game from Thursday night or about the Utah/BYU game – The Holy War – also from Thursday night.  More than likely, I will be commenting on them when I do next week’s Football Friday which will also be done earlier in the week than on Friday.

(Fri Nite) UMass at Rutgers – 16 (55):  This game is interesting because Rutgers is favored by more than 2 TDs; that happens about as often as a Sasquatch sighting in Times Square.  The spread opened at 10 points and has been rising steadily to this level.  This spread also points to a possible suggestion for the good folks who run the University of Massachusetts:

  • Perhaps you might consider abandoning Division 1-A college football and dropping down a notch?

Florida Atlantic at Ohio St. – 27.5 (63.5):  Ohio St. is ranked #5 in the pre-season polling; FAU is not mentioned.  This should be an organized ass-kicking…

South Alabama at Nebraska – 36 (66):  The best comment I saw leading up to this game came from humor-writer, Brad Dickson:

“To prepare to face South Alabama in the season opener the Husker football team is watching lots of film – mostly of the movie ‘Deliverance.’”

Akron at Illinois – 18 (51):  Yes, I know that this is a MAC team going on the road to play a big 10 team – – but Illinois is giving 18 points?

South Carolina – 10.5 at North Carolina (63.5):  The spread opened at 7.5 points and has been rising steadily all week.  Welcome back to the sidelines, Mack Brown…

Duke at Alabama – 33.5 (57.5):  Alabama is ranked #2 in the pre-season polls.  This should be another organized ass-kicking.

Northwestern at Stanford – 6 (47.5):  Almost assuredly the Division 1-A this week with the highest total SAT scores in the starting lineups.

Boise St. at Florida State – 4.5 (51.5):  If the Seminoles lose this one badly at home, Willie Taggert would be well advised to hire a food taster.

Middle Tennessee St. at Michigan – 34 (54):  The Wolverines are ranked behind Ohio St right now; if they want to catch Ohio St. in the polls prior to playing them late in the season, they will have to run up some big victory margins.  It begins here…

Georgia Southern at LSU – 27.5 (52):  Some folks think LSU is a dark horse team to make the CFP in January.  I don’t think so, but they should win this handily in Baton Rouge.

Georgia – 22 at Vandy (58):  Georgia is ranked #3 in the preseason polls, but this game is on the road against a team played good defense last year.  That line may be fat…

Oregon at Auburn – 3.5 (56):  Oregon will contend in the PAC-12 North and they have a Heisman candidate at QB in Justin Herbert.  Auburn will play a better brand of defense than Oregon is used to seeing in the PAC-12.  Maybe this is the most interesting game of the week?

Sam Houston St. at New Mexico – 9 (62.5):  Not to worry, Bob Davie will have his team safely in their hotel rooms the night before this home game.

(Sun Nite) Houston at Oklahoma – 23 (79.5):  The Sooners are ranked #4 in the pre-season polls.  One burning question is whether Jalen Hurts can make it three consecutive Heisman trophies for OU QBs under Lincoln Riley.  If so, it starts here…

(Mon Nite) Notre Dame – 20 at Louisville (54.5):  The Irish ran the table last year winning 12 in a row until losing in the CFP to eventual national champion, Clemson.  Can they do something like that again this year?

There are no NFL games this weekend other than the last of the meaningless Exhibition Games where the single best outcome for all 32 teams is to leave the field with no injuries to players the clubs intended to keep on their 53-man roster.   Given the lack of any real NFL action and the few games at the college level with any real betting interest, there will be no Six-Pack this week.

Finally, here is a comment from Greg Cote in the Miami Herald:

“The World Orienteering Championships end today in Norway. Are eliminated teams said to be dis-oriented?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

From DeMarcus Cousins to Carli Lloyd

“Boogie” Cousins had a reputation as a hothead.  He earned every bit of that reputation with his volatile behaviors on the basketball court in the early years of his NBA career.  A few years ago, stories began to emerge that Cousins was mellowing with his advancing age – – he is 29 years old as of this morning – – and that he intended to erase that sort of image from people’s minds.  About a year ago, he asked the press to stop referring to him as “Boogie” and to refer to him by his given name, DeMarcus Cousins.  That was generally interpreted as another step in the maturation process and the mellowing of Messr. Cousins.

Over the weekend, a story hit the wires alleging that Cousins threatened to kill the mother of his son.  The allegation was not that he made this threat back in the days when he was seen as an immature hothead; the allegation is that he did it last week.  The short form of the allegation is this:

  • Cousins had a son with a former girlfriend named Christy West.  Evidently, she has custody of that child.
  • Cousins now has a new girlfriend named Morgan Lang and a wedding between Cousins and Lang was imminent.
  • Cousins wanted his son to attend the wedding and evidently Ms. West was not cooperating.
  • In a phone conversation between Cousins and West – that was somehow recorded and found its way into the hands of TMZ – Cousins appears to tell West that he would “put a bullet through” her “[bleeping] head”.

I have no way of knowing if indeed the recording cited here is real or concocted nor do I have any way of knowing if the voice on that recording is indeed Cousins’ voice.  Given the general subject of this conversation as alleged, it would be a stretch to think that someone other than Cousins would make such a threat – – but there is a lot of verification and authentication that needs to happen here before this can be held up as “stone cold truth”.

One aspect of the revelation from TMZ that caused me to raise an eyebrow – – as a homage to Mr. Spock while trying to unravel this situation – – is that the recording is only 22 seconds long and yet it contains this “very juicy tidbit”.  The transcript of this recording begins in medias res with the male voice saying:

“I’m gonna ask you this one more time before I take it to another level.”

I infer from that beginning that there was likely some prior conversation leading up to this exchange.  It also occurs to me that there could have been editing or manipulation of this recording; and so, forensic analysis of the recording itself needs to happen quickly.

The criminal aspects of these allegations will likely not be resolved in short order, but one thing is pretty clear to me.  DeMarcus “Boogie” Cousins’ attempt to appear as a mature and level-headed adult took on serious water with this revelation.  In the court of public opinion – where the standard of proof is far less than “guilt beyond a reasonable doubt”, Cousins’ image has been damaged.

In many parts of the country, college football is the dominant element of social interaction.  This is clearly the case in Nebraska where the attendance at a typical Husker home game in Lincoln is between 85,000 and 90,000 folks.  To put that in perspective, the US Census lists 445 cities in the State of Nebraska.  Only 2 of those 445 cities (Lincoln and Omaha) have populations greater than 85,000.  The third largest city in Nebraska is Bellevue, NE with a population of 53.6K

Brad Dickson resides in Omaha; he is a former humor writer for The Tonight Show and for the Omaha World-Herald.  He just posted a satirical piece where he does a head-to-head comparison between Nebraska football coach, Scott Frost, and some of the giants of history such as George Washington, Ben Franklin, Leonardo da Vinci, Mother Teresa and Jesus Christ.  The object(s) of his satire are the local sportswriters and broadcasters whose adulation for Scott Frost – and his wunderkind QB, Adrian Martinez – seemingly has no limit.

Here is a link to that satirical piece.  It is worth your time to read it simply because it is so far over the top that it will put some of the fanboy commentary and behavior into perspective as the 2019 college football season begins in earnest this weekend.

You must have heard about – and probably you have seen the video of – Carli Lloyd kicking a 55-yard field goal during/after a joint practice between the Ravens and the Eagles.  An unidentified NFL team supposedly offered Lloyd the opportunity to place kick in the Week 3 Exhibition Games, but she declined that offer.  Now the story is that she will work with a kicking coach – she needs to cut down the number of steps she took in that 55-yard attempt you saw in the video – and check to see if she can sign on with an NFL team sometime in the future.  According to one report I read, she can also punt a football more than 50 yards.

It will be interesting to see which coaches might want to have Carli Lloyd as part of their training camp – – let alone as part of their team.  I am not worried in the least about “the rough-and-tumble locker room” or the “shower/dressing privacy issues”; those things can be handled with a minor bit of of effort.  However, coaches hate those “dreaded distractions” and if Carli Lloyd is wearing a team’s uniform, she will create distractions every day.

She will be the focus of media attention by the people covering the home team AND by the people covering all the opposing teams AND by all the folks who cover the NFL at a cosmic level.  Note that I have not mentioned every feature magazine and woman-focused magazine and …  Like the other “problems” that might be caused by having a woman on an NFL team, these distractions can be managed.  However, coaches just hate to have them happen in the first place and so I wonder which coaches might entertain bringing such a distraction into the OTAs – – let alone Training Camp.  This could be interesting to see…

Finally, having related some of the fervor that grips college football fans in parts of the country today, consider this revelation by Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“Not that we’ve been getting overinundated with college-football hype or anything, but just woke up in a cold sweat from a dream that Trump University was playing Electoral College.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Academic Misconduct Versus Academic Fraud

Anyone who has been a reader of these rants for a while now will recall my completely negative reaction to the academic fraud that was perpetrated at UNC where athletes were steered to sham courses where they would get high grades to remain academically eligible.  Those courses never met and required next to nothing in terms of “educational activity”; many such courses were created and perpetuated for about 20 years in one academic department and the head of that department left UNC once the existence of those sham courses came to light.

The NCAA huffed and puffed and presented UNC with no sanction other than the public opprobrium it brought on itself.  Moreover, to make matters worse, the NCAA and its members chose not to institute new rules that might prevent such an occurrence in the future at UNC and/or any other member school.  That action ought to tell you all you need to know about the concern that schools and the NCAA have for the “student” part of their favorite piece of word gymnastics, “student-athlete”.

And now we have a situation wherein the NCAA action seemingly is disproportionate when it comes to sanctioning another school for what it calls “academic misconduct”.  Even its own label points to the fact that what happened at Mississippi State in this matter is less serious than what took place at UNC.  Let me review the bidding here:

  • A student at Mississippi State was hired by the Athletic Department as a tutor for athletes at the school.
  • That tutor did some of the assigned work for 11 athletes at Mississippi State in an “online general chemistry course”, took some of the exams for the students and in a couple of cases did virtually all the work in the course for the student-athletes.
  • Based on investigations by the school and by the NVAA, it was determined that this “misconduct” allowed Mississippi St. to use ineligible athletes in various games.  Hence there needs to be “sanction”.

Let me be clear.  What happened at Mississippi state is wrong; it should be called out and punished here and at any other college/university where it takes place.  At the same time, keep in mind the UNC situation as a comparison piece.

  • This action was perpetrated by a student hired by the Athletic Department; the UNC situation involved faculty members and academic departments in conjunction with the Athletic Department and its personnel.
  • This action involved a total of 11 student-athletes (10 football players and 1 basketball player); the UNC situation involved hundreds of students and student-athletes over about a 20-year period.

Recalling that the sanctions in the UNC case amounted to not much more than having the NCAA wag its finger angrily at the UNC Athletic Department, here are some – but not all – of the punishments for Mississippi state:

  • A fine equal to 1% of the annual budget for football and men’s basketball at Mississippi St.  [Aside:  I presume that some of the offices on mahogany row at NCAA HQs need new furnishings…]
  • The football program loses 4 scholarships; the basketball program loses 1 scholarship.
  • Reductions in the number of allowable recruiting visits to the Mississippi St. campus for football and basketball over the next couple of years.
  • Three years’ probation.

Oh, and by the way the Athletic Department also has to part company with the tutor they hired who set all this in motion and that person now has a 10-year “show-cause order” meaning that if any other NCAA Athletic Department wants to hire him in that period, the school has to “show cause” regarding why he is the selected candidate for a job there and the NCAA can then approve that request or inform the hiring school of penalties it will face if the hiring is consummated.

I have no problem at all with what the NCAA did in this matter.  It is the lack of proportionality when compared to the entirety of the UNC academic fraud that I find offensive.

There is another situation developing involving big-time NCAA football that could become a hot mess.  A former team physician at Penn State has filed suit against the school and against football coach James Franklin and against the Athletic Director, Sandy Barbour et.al. for firing him as the team physician.  Normally, that would be an issue for a civil court to resolve or for the parties to accommodate one another with some sort of settlement and it would go no further than that.  However, in this case, Dr. Scott Lynch asserts in his lawsuit that coach Franklin ordered players who were still not recovered from injuries back onto the field.  Dr. Lynch reported that information and he asserts that his firing is retaliation for that reporting.

In addition to medical matters I would have no way to understand, this matter will also pivot on various NCAA and Big 10 Conference rules and regulations that pertain to injuries to athletes and their treatment for those injuries.  The thing that puts this matter higher on the food chain than it would have been 10 years ago is the heightened focus we have on player safety when it comes to football.  This could get very messy…

Finally, since I spent some time on the subject of college academics today, consider this entry in The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Catatonic:  A state of extreme stupor.  Most commonly seen in college freshmen taking classes with titles like ‘Introduction to Semiotics’, the condition is also prevalent among local news anchorpersons in the smaller markets.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Random Thoughts Today …

Congratulations to the Louisiana team that won the Little League World Series.  The final game was a shutout of a team from Curacao that had been an offensive force majeure during the tournament.  As the Little League World Series was getting underway, there was a typically snarky headline in The Onion regarding the event:

  • “Report: Little League Pitchers Could Avoid Overtaxing Their Arms By, You Know, Getting Somebody Out.” 

Last week, Baker Mayfield was quoted in a Vanity Fair piece saying that he was shocked that the NY Giants had picked Daniel Jones at #6 in the Draft last April.  He said that teams “overthink” this stuff and that teams just have to realize that what matters is that players win on the field.  Daniel Jones’ record at Duke was sub-.500.  Let me submit that his reasoning is flawed just a tad here when you realize that:

  1. John Elway lost more games than he won at Stanford.  Elway turned out to be a pretty good NFL QB.
  2. Patrick Mahomes lost more games than he won at Texas Tech.  I guess the Chiefs are deep into regret that they wasted a first-round pick on him.

Memo to Baker Mayfield:  Play QB and lead your team.  You can be an ESPN Draft Analyst and replace Mel Kiper, Jr. after you retire.

Back in May, Suffolk Downs ceased to host any more live horse racing; the track will shut down completely in October; the land will be developed as apartments in East Boston.  However, there is a nascent plan to build a new racetrack complex in Wareham in southeastern Massachusetts.  A developer there has floated the idea of a modern racetrack with plenty of accoutrements:

  • A “multi-faceted gaming and entertainment facility with multiple restaurants”.  The shorter version of that entity is “A Casino”.
  • A new baseball park for the Wareham Gatemen in the Cape Cod League
  • A new hotel
  • A sports field complex

The total cost for this development would be about $300M.  The inability of Suffolk Downs to survive demonstrates that the proposed new track is not the economic engine that would make this a profitable undertaking.  Clearly, this proposal hinges entirely on obtaining an approval for that casino facility at this locale.  If the casino there is given a green light, then live horse racing in the Boston area may come back to life.

As the college football season starts to roll, there is an interesting situation at the University of New Mexico.  Last year, as a way to save some money, the Athletic Department decided that it would stop having the team stay at a local hotel the night before home games.  That makes sense; New Mexico is not one of the nation’s “football factories” where the team and the Athletic Department are rolling in dough.  This year, they have decided to go back to the idea of housing the team in a hotel before home games – and the reasoning seems a tad “loose”.

Back in May a New Mexico baseball player was fatally shot outside a local club; soon after that, Coach Bob Davie used “player safety” as the argument to go back to housing the team in a hotel the night before home games.  According to a report in the Albuquerque Journal, Davie’s pitch included:

“Not that we can have all 110 kids at the hotel; we only take the travel team (up to 70 players).  But that is a dangerous, dangerous thing to be not keeping a college football team in a hotel the night before a game … We were being reckless; we were putting people in harm’s way.”

Never let it be said that I come down against the idea of “player safety”, but the logic here is a bit thin.

  • First, if safety is the paramount concern, why have only 70 players in that hotel.  Doesn’t it matter that the ones staying on campus are also “in harm’s way”?
  • Second, why are players in greater danger the night before a home football game staying in their dorms or apartments than they are on any other random night during football season?
  • Third, the baseball player who was killed was shot outside a night club.  Is Coach Davie worried that his team does not have the discipline to get some sleep the night before a game and stay away from night clubs?

It is of little import to me where the New Mexico football team lays itself down to sleep the night before a football game.  I don’t even care if they pitch tents out in the desert and commune with nature sprites the night before a football game.  However, I do mind being fed a “player safety malarkey cake” as the reason that the school must bear this expense.  Just call this what it is; this is a much more convenient situation for the coaching staff at New Mexico.  That is the reason that many – if not most – Division 1-A teams do exactly the same thing.

Finally, here is an observation from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times pertaining to college football:

“We needed a full-blown Princeton Review study to determine that Wisconsin is the top college for drinking beer?

“Five minutes in the Camp Randall stands at a Badgers football game could’ve told you that.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Two Farewells

Brad Rock is someone I frequently quote and cite here as a sports columnist at the Deseret News in Salt Lake City.  He has been a sports columnist there since 1994 and the paper announced his retirement over the weekend.

Bonne chance, good sir.  Thank you for all your contributions to these rants – – and I still have a few in the inventory on my clipboard.  Be well; and stay well.

A Tweet from Adam Schefter on Saturday got this reaction from me:

  • Holy “Shock and Awe”, Batman!

Andrew Luck is retiring from the NFL at age 29 due to a series of injuries that have led him to stop loving to play football.  I will not pretend to have ever been a football player, but it does seem to me that unless one really likes to play that game, it is not something that one would choose to do as a livelihood.  The game is difficult; it is painful; and, it potentially leaves some long-lasting scars on its practitioners at the NFL level.

Luck missed an entire season with a shoulder injury and has not been able to practice much this year with what have been reported as a “calf injury” and/or a “bone injury” in the ankle area.  This cannot be spun to be “good news” for Colts’ fans; the team has a solid and balanced roster that many thought could have been led deep into the playoffs.  Jacoby Brisset will stand in for Luck in 2019; I do not mean to denigrate Jacoby Brisset in any way; he has shown the ability to be a solid NFL QB.  Having said that, he is still – and may always be – several steps down from Andrew Luck’s stature as an elite NFL QB when healthy.

Perhaps the final shoe in this matter has not dropped yet.  Perhaps this retirement announcement will have serious repercussions throughout the broad landscape of football in the US – – such as:

  • Can or will the Colts consider trading for a more experienced QB than Brisset?  The roster may be ready to “win now” – – but is it too late to bring in another QB to run this team in 2019?
  • By the same token, this roster is probably too good – and too balanced – to effect a “tanking operation” in order to have a shot at one of the top QBs in next year’s draft.  Or is it?
  • What sorts of agony must be felt by all those fantasy football players whose leagues have already had their drafts and someone in the league used a high pick to take Andrew Luck?

I’ll pretend here to be a card-carrying millennial here despite having been born in the middle of WW II as opposed to being born in the walk-up to Desert Storm.  In order to do that, I’ll have to shriek that this “Andrew Luck announcement” is all about me.

  • I had written a first draft of my picks for the records for all 32 NFL teams – pending injuries in the final 2 Exhibition Games – and had the Colts winning the AFC South on the assumption that Andrew Luck would have been “good-to-go” once the games counted.
  • Now – – poor me – – I’ll have to go back and do a major rework of the whole AFC prognostications.  Let me bask in my victimhood here for just a moment …

By the way, Andrew Luck’s decision here puts him in some rather prestigious company.  If you consider elite NFL players who retired while still “in their prime”, he now keeps company with the likes of :

  1. Jim Brown
  2. Calvin Johnson
  3. Barry Sanders

And now – – Andrew Luck

Switching gears … A couple of months ago, when the University of Michigan hired Juwann Howard as the head basketball coach, it strolled down a well-worn path.  Lots of coaches in college basketball wind up in charge of the team that they played for when the coach was in college.  Here are some that come to mind without even doing a Google search:

  • Jim Boeheim – Syracuse – He’s been there next to forever.
  • Jamie Dixon – TCU
  • Patrick Ewing – Georgetown
  • Penny Hardaway – Memphis
  • Bob Huggins – West Virginia
  • Chris Mullen – St. John’s – at least until the end of last season
  • Kevin Ollie – UConn – until the commencement of a “nasty divorce”

As I had my thoughts on this theme of returning to the fold – so to speak – I also wondered what might happen in the near future when two highly successful coaches at two major schools come to an agreement with Father Time and hang up their whistles.  I am referring here to Mike Krzyzewsli (age 73 in the middle of next season) and Roy Williams (age 69 as of today).  I am not suggesting either man needs to retire or that either of them is in some sort of diminished coaching capacity.  My thinking here merely reflects a realistic look at the calendar.

Lots of former players at Duke and UNC have found themselves in the college coaching profession after graduation.  So, I started to think who might be offered the very difficult – but very tempting – task of following these highly successful coaches.

Here are some choices for the mavens at Duke – I am sure there are others:

  • Tommy Amaker – currently head coach at Harvard
  • Jeff Capel – currently head coach at Pitt
  • Johnny Dawkins – currently head coach at UCF
  • Bob Hurley – currently head coach at Arizona St.

Here are some choices for the mavens at UNC – I am sure there are others:

  • Hubert Davis – currently an assistant coach at UNC
  • Phil Ford – previously an assistant coach for 2 NBA teams
  • Jeff Lebo – currently head coach at E. Carolina
  • Jerry Stackhouse – currently head coach at Vandy

The idea of going back to one’s alma mater to coach is alluring; it is not universally successful.  Indeed, Jim Boeheim has had a great run at Syracuse, but Chris Mullen’s time at St. John’s as a coach did not nearly compare to its success when he played there.  Roy Williams never played varsity basketball at UNC – he was there during the days when freshmen were ineligible and he did play freshman basketball – so his coaching successes at UNC have far outweighed his athletic accomplishments there.  So far, Patrick Ewing’s coaching success has not come close to his playing-days’ success at Georgetown.

Adding to that mixed-bag of success stories and not-such-a-success stories, the people who replace either Roy Williams or Mike Krzyzewski will have the added burden of being next in line after a legendarily successful coach who had been at the school for next-to-forever.  Coaches who have “followed a legend” have not had anything like universal success – in college basketball or in other sports.  Consider:

  • Heartley Anderson succeeded Knute Rockne at Notre Dame
  • Gene Bartow succeeded John Wooden at UCLA
  • Phil Bengston succeeded Vince Lombardi in Green Bay
  • Terry Brennan succeeded Frank Leahy at Notre Dame
  • Mike Davis succeeded Bob Knight at Indiana
  • Bill Guthridge succeeded Dean Smith at UNC
  • Ray Perkins succeeded Paul “Bear” Bryant at Alabama
  • Hank Raymonds succeeded Al McGuire at Marquette

None of these “successors” were failures as coaches – – except when measured by the yardstick of the person they replaced.  The title of Thomas Wolfe’s posthumous novel provides a cautionary moment here:

  • You Can’t Go Home Again

Finally, to prove that I still have some of Brad Rock’s commentary from the Deseret news in inventory, consider this comment:

“The Atlanta Hawks reportedly are keeping a spot open for 42-year-old Vince Carter if he wants it.

“They’re saying all he needs to do is prove his vertical is still higher than his age.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Here And There…

I saw a headline this morning that must get the “Captain Obvious Award” for the week:

“James Harden blames media for him not repeating as MVP”

Since the NBA MVP is determined by a voting process where the only voters are sportswriters or sports broadcasters, it is difficult to imagine a set of circumstances when “the media” would not be responsible for the selection of a player or the selection of some different player.  Equally obvious would be the following headline:

“James Harden realizes media responsible for him being last year’s MVP”

Speaking of “the media”, I fear that yesterday was just a tad scary.  CBS Sports streamed a 6-hour program yesterday devoted entirely to Fantasy Football.  The key parts of that previous sentence are:

  1. 6-hour
  2. Fantasy

Even a 12-year old boy with his first access to a Victoria’s Secret catalog would find something else to do in less than 6 hours.  Can Armageddon be far off?

I got an e-mail from #2 son yesterday with the following baseball stat:

“Tony Gwynn faced Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux a combined total of 323 times. He struck out 3 times.”

Let me do some math for you here:

  • Tom Glavine struck out 0.59 batters per inning for his career.
  • Greg Maddux struck out 0.67 batters per inning for his career.
  • Pedro Martinez struck out 1.13 batters per inning for his career.
  • John Smoltz struck out 0.89 batters per inning for his career.

All four of those pitchers had long careers; those strikeout stats are not subject to “small sample size error”.  That makes the Tony Gwynn stat here even more eye-popping.

The Washington Post recently had a long-form piece on how the increasing temperatures around the world are affecting sports competitions.  The focus of the article was a race through the Mojave Desert called Running with the Devil.  However, the article devotes plenty of space to things like the Olympics to be held in Japan in mid-summer and to the World Cup in Qatar which was postponed to late in 2022 to avoid the heat in that part of the world in June/July.  Here is a link if you choose to read the piece in its entirety.

That report dovetails with a press announcement from NC State saying that the school will implement an “enhanced heat plan” for the 2019 football season.  Fans attending games in the late-summer/early-fall might need ways to stay cool in the open-air environment of Carter-Finley Stadium and the school is going to provide for heat relief in various ways to include:

  • Misting stations
  • Dunking stations – – ice water for towels to cool oneself
  • Water bottle refilling stations
  • Shade tents
  • Air-conditioned buses – – medical folks can direct overheated fans to these cooling places if necessary.

Earlier this week, I mentioned that college football kicks off its season this weekend with a short slate of 2 Division 1-A games.  That means that I will be kicking off “Football Friday” next week.  I did a survey of the 2019 college football season on July 30 of this year and would like to add a few more observations as we commence the season:

  • Watch out for Utah this year.  The Utes won the PAC-12 South last year despite losing their starting QB and top RB to injury for much of the year.  Those guys are back along with plenty of starters from last year’s team.
  • Texas will replace 8 starters on their defense from last year.  That is probably a good thing and not a bad thing.  Last year, Texas allowed offenses to gain 5.7 yards per play.  You have to think there is room for improvement there…
  • Lots of prognosticators see Florida and LSU as sleepers who might rise up and challenge Alabama and Georgia for SEC supremacy.  Check out the schedules of those two schools here and here.  If either wins the SEC Championship Game, it will not be due to a pillow-soft schedule – including a game on October 12 where the two teams square off in Baton Rouge.

Finally, I mentioned above the NC State plan to provide heat relief for fans part of which involved water bottle refilling stations.  Here is a pertinent definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Bottled Water:  Tap water made more palatable by a label with a mountain on it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

An Ignominious Milestone…

The Baltimore Orioles’ pitching staff reached a milestone in the 127th game of the season.  That assemblage gave up its 258th HR for the season and that ties the record in all of MLB history for “number of HRs allowed by a team in a single season”.   Please note that there are 35 games left on the Orioles’ schedule; it is a good bet that this pitching staff will set a new standard.  In case you are wondering, the projection is that the Orioles will allow 329 HRs this year.

Rather than mock the Orioles’ staff for its inability to keep the ball in the ballpark, let me use this stat to make a serious point regarding MLB expansion.  From a fan perspective, there is a real allure to the idea that MLB might expand to 32 teams putting 16 teams in each league thereby allowing for more balanced scheduling and limited inter-league play.  From an owners’ perspective, there is the allure of humongous franchise fees to be divvied up and possibly greater TV rights fees down the road as two new markets acquire “local heroes”.

Every yin has its yang, however, and the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching staff is a great example of the “yang” here.  The Orioles are fielding the equivalent of a Triple-A pitching staff and that staff is being lit up on a nightly basis.  In addition to setting a record for HRs allowed this season, the Orioles have given up 805 runs so far this year (6.34. runs per game).  That is 68 more runs allowed than the next most forgiving pitching staff (Rockies).

Now consider that the typical MLB roster carries 12 pitchers.  If there were 2 new teams, that would create the need to find 24 more pitchers to play in the major leagues.  There are simply not enough quality pitchers available; adding two teams would be akin to adding two more “Orioles’ pitching staffs” to the major leagues.  I suggest that is not the path to the future that MLB should select.

The XFL 2.0 continues its trek to become an actual sports entity.  This week, the league announced the locations and the names of its 8 franchises:

  1. Dallas Renegades
  2. DC Defenders
  3. Houston Roughnecks
  4. LA Wildcats
  5. NY Guardians
  6. Seattle Dragons
  7. St. Louis BattleHawks
  8. Tampa Bay Vipers

The franchise placement strategy here is interesting by comparison with the late – but not lamented – AAF placement strategy.  The AAF put teams mainly in places where there was football interest but no incumbent NFL team (Birmingham, Orlando, Memphis, Salt Lake City, San Antonio, San Diego).  Note that XFL 2.0 will have 7 of its 8 teams in markets where there is an existing NFL franchise and 1 team – in St. Louis – where there was formerly an NFL team.  I am not suggesting that the viability of XFL 2.0 will hinge on where the teams are located; clearly, its survival will depend on the quality of their football product and the amount of “football interest” that remains in the viewing public after the Super Bowl.

The draft for XFL 2.0 will take place in October 2019; as of this morning, the league has exactly 1 player under contract.  That would be former Steelers’ QB, Landry Jones.  The league will play a 10-game regular season starting in February 2020 with a 2-week post-season in the Spring of 2020.  The league is conducting test games with small colleges to try out some rules it hopes to implement:

  • Forward laterals allowed:  This means there can be more than one forward pass on a play, and it would seem to mean that offensive linemen behind the line of scrimmage would be eligible receivers.  I will need a tutorial by the league in the early games to understand all the implications of this rule.  [I don’t know enough to know if I like this rule or not.]
  • No PATs:  After a TD, the scoring team will opt to run a play from the 2-yardline or the 5-yardline or the 10-yardline.  If successful, those tries would be worth 1, 2 or 3 points depending on the scrimmage line chosen.  [I do like this rule.]
  • Speeding up the game:  There will be an official added to the crew whose job it is to place the ball ASAP to speed up play.  Players who commit procedural fouls – offside – will need to sit out a play and have a sub entered into the game.  [These rules evoke a giant “Meh! From me.]
  • Timing rules:  There will be a 25-second play clock and until the time of the two-minute warning, the clock will run continuously stopping only when there is a change of possession – – which will allow for commercial breaks on the telecast.  Instant replay reviews will be 30 seconds long.  [I like the instant replay time limit; I think I will like the continuously running clock; I wonder if 25-seconds is too short for the play clock.  These are interesting.]
  • Special Teams Rule Variants:  There will be no fair catches; the league here will emulate the CFL on punt returns.  There will be kickoff returns in XFL 2.0 because the proposed placement of the ball for kickoffs is the kicking team’s 15-yardline.  [I’ll reserve judgement here, if I may…]

Let the games begin …

Finally, since XFL 2.0 is trying to look at football from a different perspective, consider this Tweet from Brad Dickson regarding the use of a different perspective:

“In Texas the oldest man in the U.S. has died at 112. He attributed his long life to a daily cigar & shot of whiskey. You know, I’ve been doing this healthy living thing all wrong.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………