The MLB regular season is more than half into the books and the standings as of this morning are a mix of surprises and “Ho-hums”. Let me start with the “Ho-hums”:
- In the NL West, the Dodgers lead by 14 games and are the only team in the division with a record above .500. Any mystery about the division winner here was resolved about a month ago.
- In the NL Central, the Brewers and the Cubs are at the top of the division; the fact that the Brewers lead by 6 full games is a bit surprising but not shocking.
- In the AL West, the Mariners, Rangers and Texans are bunched at the top of the Division, and the Angels are at the bottom. No real surprises there …
If you don’t do more than skim over the MLB standings, you might get the idea that there aren’t any big surprises as compared to expectations back in March/April of this year. And if you have that idea in your head, this would be a good time to exorcise it; there are plenty of surprising numbers in the standings today:
- The White Sox lead the AL Central and are five games above .500 so far this year. Consider that the White Sox have lost more than 100 games in each of the last 3 seasons (Combined record for those 3 years was 162-324).
- The Rays lead the AL East by 4 games despite a sub-.500 record on the road and a run differential of only 35 runs
- The Red Sox have seemingly imploded and are dead last in the AL East. They are 12.5 games behind the Rays despite having a run-differential of +5.
- The Astros’ record is 45-47 and they are 2.5 games behind the Mariners in the AL West. Somehow, they have stayed close in this race despite having a run differential of minus-44.
- The Phillies have closed to within 3 games of the Braves in the NL East. Six weeks ago, that would not have seemed to be possible.
- Staying in the NL East, both the Marlins and the Nationals post records above .500. Who had that as a possibility on the Fourth of July?
- Obviously, the Mets are the disasters of the NL East; pre-season analysis had the Mets fighting for the Division lead; this morning they are 16 games behind the Division-leading Braves.
- Both the Cards and the Pirates have records above .500 in the NL Central and both are solidly in the Wild Card race.
Back at the start of the MLB season, I made some predictions about outcomes. It looks like a very mixed bag as of today:
- I had the Yankees winning the AL East. They are in 2nd place but are not playing like champions as of late
- I had the Mariners winning the AL West. They lead the Division as of today but only by 1.5 games.
- I had the Tigers winning the AL Central. The Tigers are 10 games below .500 and 7.5 games behind the White Sox.
- I had the Phillies winning the NL East. They had a disastrous start and are racing to catch up to the Braves.
- I had the Cubs winning the NL Central. They are 6 games behind the Brewers as of this morning.
- I had the Dodgers winning the NL West. That looks like a mortal lock now.
I made 5 win projections back in March. Here is their status around the halfway mark in the season:
- Orioles UNDER 86.5 wins. The current record is 42-49 which projects to only 75 wins. This looks good.
- Tigers OVER 8.5. wins. The current record is 40-50 which projects to only 72 wins. This is not happening …
- Mets UNDER 90.5 wins. The current record is 37-53 which projects to only 67 wins. This looks solid.
- Reds UNDER 81.5 wins. The current record is 41-48 which projects to only 75 wins. This is on track for now but is not comfortable
- D-Backs OVER 79.5 wins. The current record is 44-45 which projects to 80 wins. As Ian Darke might say this race is on a knife’s edge.
Finally, since today has been all about baseball, let me close with these three observations about the game:
“Baseball is 90 percent mental. The other half is physical.” Yogi Berra
And …
“There are three things you can do in a baseball game. You can win or you can lose or it can rain.” Casey Stengel
And …
“It took me 17 years to get 3000 hits in baseball. I did it in one afternoon on the golf course.” Henry Aaron
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………