Comments On Round 1 Of The NFL Draft

Two days ago, I did my “Annual Pre-Draft Analysis” which drew a comment from a reader who goes by “TenaciousP” asking:

“Are you brave enough to go back, chronicle previous draft analysis, and grade yourself on your perspicacity?”

That is way more work than I am willing to undertake but his comment sparked the basis for today’s rant. I will see to what degree the scouts and the teams who hire those scouts corroborate or contradict my conclusions based on what I saw on TV.  So, here are data from my rant and from last night’s first round of the NFL Draft:

• Twenty-two of the thirty-two players selected last night (69%) were on my list. 
• I had sixty-two players on my list and twenty-two of them (35%) went in the first round.

That second data point is shaded to the negative just a bit because on my list were five Running Backs, three Safeties, two Punters and a Kicker.  No players in those positions were taken in Round 1.  I will leave the “assignment of a grade” to TenaciousP here rather than grade myself.  [Aside:  I happen to know that TenaciousP was a high school teacher at some point prior to his retirement; so, he is completely competent to make such a judgment.]

I will also try to do the following next Monday:

• I will try to track the draft fate of all sixty-two players on my list to see how many actually get drafted by an NFL team.  That was the point of my preparing my list in the first place.

Remember that even first round picks have only a 50% chance of sticking with the team that drafted them beyond a “first contract’.  I only want to compare my list of draft candidates to the actual draft results to see how my eyeballs agree with the eyeballs and other data sources available to NFL teams.  To be continued …

I want to make 7 comments about specific first round selections last night:

1. The Falcons’ selection of Michael Penix, Jr. implies to me that the Falcons intend only to keep Kirk Cousins as their QB for the two years in which his salary is guaranteed and then they will transition to Penix.  If that is not their thinking, then they drafted Penix to use him as “trading goods” with a “QB-deficient team” later.
2. The Chiefs’ offense last year was less efficient than it had been in some previous seasons – – even though the Chiefs won the Super Bowl last year.  What they did not have was a guy who could “take the top off the defense” reliably.  So, last night they drafted a guy – – Xavier Worthy – – who merely ran the fastest 40-yard time in the history of the NFL Combine.  Wow…
3. I think Caleb Williams (Bears) and JJ McCarthy (Vikes) are walking into the best “success environments” for the QBs taken in the first round given the surrounding elements for those two QBs.  I still think Jayden Daniels will be as good or better than either Williams or McCarthy in the long run, but Daniels’ teammates in 2024 will not be as strong as those other two rookie QBs.
4. In contrast, I think Drake Maye and Bo Nix are walking into the worst “success environments” for 2024.  Neither the Pats nor the Broncos are strong at the skill positions meaning the new QBs will need to be grinders – – and that is a trait that normally does not come early in a QBs career if it ever comes at all.
5. I said earlier this week that Brock Bowers was a “can’t miss prospect”.  Barring injury, I stand by that statement.  Having said that, I am surprised that the Raiders took him with the 13^th pick last night because the Raiders already have a competent tight end – – Michael Mayer – – whom they drafted just a year ago.
6. I have a similar quizzical reaction to the Niners’ selection of a WR – – Ricky Pearsall (Florida) – – at #31.  The Niners’ pass catchers seem to be competent and plentiful.  Strange …
7. The Seahawks took Byron Murphy (DT-Texas) with the 16^th pick.  The ESPN commentators said he was the best interior defensive lineman in the draft.  I saw Texas play at least twice and probably four times last year and I did not have any notes on Murphy – – but I did have notes on one of his defensive linemates, T’Vondre Sweat, who was not drafted in Round 1.  C’est la guerre…

Switching gears …  Yesterday I read that Peyton Manning’s production company – – Omaha Productions – – has reached an agreement with Bill Belichick to have Coach Belichick be a “semi-regular contributor” to the Monday Night ManningCast on ESPN.  Earlier this week, ESPN and Omaha Productions reached an agreement to extend the ManningCast alternate telecasts for “a series of Monday Night Football telecasts” each year through 2034.  I suspect that Belichick will add to the program.

Finally, I’ll close today with an observation by Sir Winston Churchill that obliquely applies to making selections in the NFL Draft:

“Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………