This compendium of Football Fridays began back in August; today is the penultimate entry in that series. Yes, I know that there are still two weeks to go in the NFL season after this weekend, but I refuse to recognize the Pro Bowl – – as it is currently configured or as it was previously configured – – as an event worthy of one’s time and energy. So, Football Friday will be on hiatus next week and will return on the Friday before the Super Bowl.
With that out of the way, let me begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:
- College = 0-0-0 => Final Season Total = 21-10-0
- NFL = 1-3-0 => Season Total = 27-30-0
- Parlays = 0-0 Profit/Los = 0 => Season Total = 11-17 Profit = $8
College Football Commentary:
I wonder if a gentleman named Roy Englebrecht is a visitor to this website. If he is not, then great minds run in similar channels. Mr. Englebrecht was described in a report at CBSSports.com as a “Newport Beach, California-based promoter” and he wants to stage something he called “The Irrelevant Bowl”. In his vision for such a thing, the game would match the two worst college football teams in the country giving them each a chance at redemption for the season. Obviously as a “promoter”, Mr. Englebrecht tends to “always look on the bright side of life”. [Hat Tip: Monty Python and Spamalot]
“The Irrelevant Bowl” would be a truncated form of my “SHOE Tournament” which I would propose for the 8 worst teams in the country and which would focus on the dark side of life by making the loser play on to determine THE UNEQUIVOCAL WORST TEAM AS DECIDED ON THE FIELD OF PLAY.
[Aside: Recall that “SHOE” is an acronym for Steaming Heap Of Excrement and that the ultimate loser of such a “tournament” would be known as the “SHOE Team”]
Unless “The Irrelevant Bowl” can come up with a ton of TV money to dangle in front of the paper-shufflers at the NCAA, the chances of there ever being an “Irrelevant Bowl” are about the same as having the NCAA sanction and organize a SHOE Tournament. That is not part of the noble ideal that sits behind the façade of the NCAA; they seek to crown champions not to bury the detritus of a sport.
Notwithstanding my assessment that “The Irrelevant Bowl” will ever be a real thing, I am rooting for Mr. Englebrecht simply based on recent history in college football:
- The BCS started with two teams playing for a championship; “The Irrelevant Bowl” would be two teams playing for “redemption” or “ignominy depending on your point of view.
- The BCS expanded to become the CFP involving 4 teams
- The CFP expanded so that it will involved 12 teams starting in 2024.
- Perhaps “The Irrelevant Bowl” – – should it ever get started – – might expand to become my fantastical “SHOE Tournament” under a totally different name of course.
NFL Commentary:
They say one is known by the company one keeps. In that case, might I suggest that Baker Mayfield is now keeping company with some rather accomplished NFL QBs. Mayfield won a playoff game with the Bucs this year; previously, he won a playoff game with the Browns in the 2020 playoffs. Until this year, only 4 QBs in the NFL had won playoff games with two different franchises:
- Tom Brady
- Brett Favre
- Peyton Manning
- Joe Montana
- And now there are 5 QBs on this list …
With the Conference Championship Games on tap for this weekend, this is the sixth consecutive year that the AFC Championship Game will involve the Chiefs. The AFC – – and NFL – – record for consecutive appearances in the Conference Championship Game is held by the Pats at seven years in a row. Over in the NFC, there is no streak ongoing this year and the record in the NFC is shared by the Eagles and the Cowboys at four consecutive appearances
Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll were both “relieved of command” a few weeks ago and neither has gotten a new job. Is that a signal that the NFL is handing the baton over to a new generation of leadership – – or is that ageism at work in the NFL? Or perhaps it is neither…
Along the same lines, Brian Flores did a great job as the defensive coordinator for the Vikes this year; no one can say that unit underachieved. Based on reporting about the NFL coaching carousel, Flores has not even been interviewed let alone offered a job. Is that racism at work in the NFL – – or is that a reluctance on the part of any owners to deal with someone who is suing them in court? You make the call there …
Last week’s Bills/Chiefs game did more than decide which team would advance in the playoffs. That game provided fans with an entertainment level that is not matched elsewhere in the sport in 2024. In fact, the only QB confrontation that I can recall that was as entertaining was the one involving Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Mahomes and Allen are fun to watch anytime they are on the air separately; when they are facing each other, they never fail to entertain.
The TV network execs and the advertisers for last week’s Bills/Chiefs clash were more than merely entertained; I suspect they were bordering on rapturous. The folks who measure TV audience size report that the Bills/Chiefs audience averaged 50.4 million viewers last Sunday. Even for the ratings-dominant NFL, this is a milestone. It represents the largest audience for any NFL game other than a Super Bowl telecast.
The Packers fired Defensive Coordinator, Joe Barry, earlier this week. Early in the season, the Packers’ defense was porous at best but as the season went on, the Packers’ defense played very well. In fact, in the Packers’ wildcard round victory over the Cowboys, the Packers’ defense was in control holding the Cowboys to only 16 points in three quarters of football. Usually, coaches are fired on the basis of “What have you done for me lately?” This one seems to be based on more than just that.
Looking at the list of finalists for the various NFL individual awards for 2023, here are my picks:
- Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett or Maxx Crosby – – either/or
- Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey
- Offensive Rookie of the Year: CJ Stroud
- Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jalen Carter or Joey Porter, Jr. – – either/or
- Comeback Player of the Year: Damar Hamlin – – and I will not entertain any arguments…
- Coach of the Year: DeMeco Ryans or John Harbaugh – – either/or
- Most Valuable Player : Lamar Jackson
Here is a statistical tidbit related to the Lions/Niners game this weekend in Santa Clara, CA:
- The last time the Lions won a road playoff game was in 1957.
- The Lions have lost eleven straight road playoff games since 1957.
- The team the Lions beat in 1957 was – – drumroll – – the SF 49ers.
Let me review the four games from last week:
Lions 31 Bucs 23: The game was tied at 17 at the start of the 4th quarter but the Lions put together two long drives (75 yards and 89 yards) in the fourth quarter to take control of the game. The stat sheet for the game was very balanced:
- Lions’ Total Offense = 391 yards Bucs’ Total Offense = 408 yards
- Lions’ First Downs = 26 Bucs’ First Downs = 23
The biggest statistical discrepancy was in the turnovers; the Bucs turned the ball over twice and the Lions did not turn it over at all.
Ravens 34 Texans 10: I really thought that the Texans’ defense could make this game much more competitive; I was wrong. The Ravens’ offense dominated the game holding the ball for 37:35 in the game. Even more dominant was the Ravens’ running game which racked up 229 yards on 42 attempts – – 5.5 yards per carry. It was just another day on the field for Lamar Jackson:
- 16 of 22 for 152 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs – – AND – –
- 11 carries for 100 yards and 2 TDs
The Ravens have fared extremely well against opponents who made the playoffs in both conferences this year:
- Versus the Texans, the Ravens won by 16 in September and by 24 last weekend.
- Versus the Browns, the Ravens won by 25 in October.
- Versus the Lions, the Ravens won by 32 in October.
- Versus the Rams, the Ravens won by 6 in December.
- Versus the Niners, the Ravens won by 14 in December,
- Versus the Dolphins, the Ravens won by 37 in December.
In contrast to that impressive sets of showings, the Ravens played the playoff-bound Steelers twice this year with the following results:
- Steelers 17 Ravens 10 – – January 2024
- Steelers 17 Ravens 10 – – October 2023
Niners 24 Packers 21: The Niners needed to rally from 7 points down at the start of the fourth quarter to win this game. It was the first time the niners had trailed in the second half and managed to come back and win the game. The Niners closed the score to 21-17 at the start of the 4th quarter. The teams then traded punts until the Packers drove to set up a 40-yard field goal try with just over 6 minutes left in the game that was unsuccessful. At that point the Niners took the ball at the Packers 30 and marched down the field with Brock Purdy hitting 5 out of 6 passes and scrambling for 9 yards to set up a second-and-one situation that led to Christian McCaffrey getting the first down and a touchdown that won the game.
The game featured two young QBs who have taken a measure of criticism/scorn over the last year or two. Brock Purdy had the better day here:
- 23 of 39 for 252 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs
Chiefs 27 Bills 24: This game was back-and-forth for 60 minutes; the largest lead in the game was 7 points for a 4-minute period in the second quarter. Here is how close this game appeared to be:
- Chiefs’ Total Offense = 361 yards Bills’ Total Offense = 368 yards.
However, a closer examination of the stats from the game reveals that the Chiefs should be thankful they were in the game at all let alone on top on the scoreboard:
- Chiefs’ 3rd Down Conversions = 1 of 5 Bills’ 3rd Down Conversions = 7 of 14
- Chiefs’ Red Zone = 2 of 4 Bills’ Red Zone = 3 of 4
- Chiefs’ Time of Possession = 22:57 Bills’ Time of Possession = 37:03
- Chiefs’ Offensive Plays = 48 Bills’ Offensive Plays = 77
- Chiefs’ First Downs = 21 Bills’ First Downs = 27
People will remember that the Bills missed a game-tying field goal with less than two minutes to go in the fourth quarter. People should also remember that the Bills went for it on 4th down with a fake punt in Bills’ territory and that gave the ball to the Chiefs with a short field. The only reason the Bills did not pay for that stratagem was that Mecole Hardmen fumbled the ball out of the end zone and gave the ball back to the Bills three plays later.
I am not going to be critical of the decision to go for it on fourth down because the Chiefs led at the time and the Bills needed to score not punt. However, I will criticize the choice of a fake punt by the Bills. Here’s why:
- The biggest offensive weapon for the Bills is clearly and obviously Josh Allen; he can beat opponents with his arm and with his legs. A fake punt – needing about 4 yards – takes that potent weapon off the field and puts him on the bench.
- How is that a good idea?
The Conference Championship Games:
Because there are only two games this weekend, I will make a selection in each game for the “Betting Bundle” but with less than my usual degree of enthusiasm. Each of the four teams can be a winner on Sunday; each game could come down to a last second field goal try; each game could be a two-score margin of victory or more. There are not weak sisters in the field this weekend.
(Sun 3:00 PM ET) Chiefs at Ravens – 4 (44): The spread opened at 2.5 points and climbed quickly to 3.5 points; you can still find the spread at that level at a few of the sportsbooks this morning. This matchup pits the two best scoring defenses in the NFL at each other:
- Ravens allow 16.1 points per game (Best)
- Chiefs allow 17.1 points per game (Second Best)
Last week was the first time Patrick Mahomes had to play on the road in the playoffs. This week provides another “first”. This is the first time the Ravens will host a Conference Championship Game.
The potential return to the Ravens’ lineup by TE Mark Andrews should be a big help for the Ravens even if he is only 75% of what he would be without his injury.
Last week the Ravens ran the ball for 229 yards; last week, the Chiefs gave up 182 yards rushing to the Bills – – and managed to come away with a win. I think the Chiefs’ ability – – or lack thereof – – to stop the Ravens’ run game is going to decide the outcome here. That assessment is not meant to take away anything from any of the other participants here; these are two really good teams; each team has star players who can take charge of a game. I do believe however, if the Chiefs can make the Ravens throw the ball more than they are used to doing then the Chiefs can win the game.
- I think this game will be a nail-biter and go down to the wire; therefore, give me the Chiefs plus the points; Put that in the “Betting Bundle”. In addition, despite the two top scoring defenses being on the field, I think there will be plenty of points in the game, so I’ll take the game to go OVER. Put that in the “Betting Bundle also.
(Sun 6:30 PM ET) Lions at Niners – 7 (51): These lines have been steady as a rock all week long; for a brief time on Thursday a couple of the sportsbooks had the Total Line up to 51.5 points but they settled back to the opening number this morning. A huge question hanging over the time leading up to this game is this:
- Can Deebo Samuel play – – and if so, can he play anywhere near his normal level of competency?
- Deebo Samuel did not practice this week.
Another interesting item related to the running game could emerge here. Christian McCaffrey led the league in rushing this year; the Lions rank 3rd in the NFL in rushing defense allowing only 3.7 yards per carry.
[Aside: The last player to lead the NFL in rushing AND to make it to the Super Bowl was Shaun Alexander back in 2005. Make of that what you will …]
For the Lions, a key factor will be the ability of the Lions’ OL to protect Jared Goff. When he has time to throw, he has three quality receivers out in pass patterns any one of which can do significant damage.
- I think each team will be able to move the ball on the opposing defense in this game so give me the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
So let me review this week’s ”Betting Bundle”:
- Chiefs +4 against Ravens
- Chiefs/Ravens OVER 44
- Lions/Niners OVER 51
There are no Money Line Parlays for this week but here is one potential parlay to have in mind if you believe that both underdogs can win outright this weekend. For the record, I do not think that is likely. However:
- Chiefs @ +175
- Lions @ +285
- $100 wager to win $959
Finally, these words from former Florida St. head football coach, Bobby Bowden:
“To have the kind of year you want to have, something has to happen that you can’t explain why it happened. Something has to happen that you can’t coach.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………