Before the NFL season gets mired in speculation as to which team will have the first pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, I want to take a look at the teams at the bottom of their divisions today.
- AFC East: Dolphins 0-5 Point differential = minus 62
- AFC North: Bengals 3-2 Point differential = +19
- AFC South: Titans 0-5 Point differential = minus 51
- AFC West: Chargers 0-5 Point differential = minus 45
- NFC East: Commanders 1-3-1 Point differential = minus 34
- NFC North: Bears 3-2 Point differential = + 23
- NFC South: Saints 1-4 Point differential = minus 33
- NFC West: Cards 1-4 Point differential = minus 54
Looking at that list, you can eliminate the Bears and the Bengals regarding talk of a miserable team; after all, some team must be in last place in each of the 8 Divisions. On the other hand, one can make a logical case arguing that each of the other six teams on the list will indeed end up at the bottom of their division.
- The Dolphins are outmanned because they are carrying close to $100M in dead cap money after releasing Tua Tagovailoa. The Jets’ season would have to crater badly for the Dolphins to finish above last place
- The Titans are an interesting case; they have already spent a top draft pick on a supposed “QB of the Future” in Cam Ward. So far, he has not panned out close to their expectations, and the Titans should be underdogs in their next 6 games..
- The Chargers are an enigma; hiring Mike McDonald as the OC was going to unleash Justin Herbert. If this is “unleashed Jusin Herbert”, then he is a dog and the eyeball test over the last several years says that is not the case.. Nonetheless, I think the Chargers will finish at the bottom of their division.
- The Commanders’ defense is a hot mess, and they are a poorly coached team. In their 5 games so far this year, the defense has given up 30 or more points in three of those games. However, the Commanders can finish anywhere between 2nd and 4th in the NFC East.
- The Saints are probably better than their 1-4 record; but not a lot better. One stat that does not auger well for the Saints is that they are 0-3 at home.
- The Cards are not good on offense, and they give up points in bunches. I will be shocked if they finish anywhere other than at the bottom of the NFC West.
If I now apply my eyeball test the Dolphins, Titans and Cards sink to bottom in the first 5 weeks of the regular season.
Finally, this thought from Warren Buffet:
“Rule No.1: Never lose money.
Rule No.2: Never forget Rule No.1.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………