As I commence my 79th journey on Planet Earth around the sun, I cannot think of a better thing to kick off the trip than a Football Friday. As usual, things start here with a review of last week’s Six Pack:
- College: 0-1-0
- NFL: 3-1-1
- Combined: 3-2-1
- Money Line Parlays: 1-1 Net “profit” = $23
The cumulative results for the season are:
- College: 14-19-0
- NFL: 23-26-2
- Combined: 37-45-2
- Money Line Parlays: 3-8 Net “loss” = $375
College Football Commentary:
With the season over and the lack of any surprising news about the coaching game of musical chairs, there is only one comment for this week:
- I really enjoyed watching the Army/Navy game last week.
The game was completely different from your typical college football game in 2021 and that added to the enjoyment. Darrell Royal and Woody Hayes would have been proud of the game; the teams ran the ball first and foremost and threw the ball only when pressed to do so. It may have been more “exciting” to watch Kansas beat Texas 56-55 earlier in the season, but this game was equally interesting to me.
There is an Internet meme out there showing Army and Navy squared off at the line of scrimmage. The caption on the picture says:
- The only football game where every player is willing to die for everyone watching the game.
Go Army! Go Navy! – – and Go Air Force! too.
NFL Commentary:
The biggest news of the week has to be the abrupt firing of Urban Meyer as the head coach of the Jags. His record in less than a season of NFL football was 2-11 and to say that his time in Jax was “controversial” would be like saying Pavarotti could sing a bit. It appears that the final straw was an assertion by a former kicker for the Jags who said that Meyer kicked him during a practice while saying:
“Hey, Dipsh*t; make your [bleeping] kicks.”
When the kicker objected and told Meyer not to kick him again, Meyer’s response was supposedly:
“I’m the head coach. I’ll kick you whenever the [bleep] I want.”
Maybe there was a time when football coaches thought and acted that way and it was generally acceptable behavior. Such is not the custom in 2021; so even if this story is exaggerated a bit, it is not something that can be ignored these days in light of everything else that has gone wrong during Meyer’s tenure with the Jags. Here is the statement by Jags’ owner Shad Khan about his decision to look for another head coach:
“After deliberation over many weeks and a thorough analysis of the entirety of Urban’s tenure with our team, I am bitterly disappointed to arrive at the conclusion that an immediate change is imperative for everyone. I informed Urban of the change this evening. As I stated in October, regaining our trust and respect was essential. Regrettably, it did not happen.”
All this business about “trust” and “respect” is nice, and it provides a patina of beneficence to the situation, but I think most of it is just that – – a patina. I believe there are two things at the core of this decision which – if they were markedly different – would make Urban Meyer’s off-center behaviors tolerable if not laudable. They are:
- Bottom line is the Jags are 2-11. If they were even 6-7 coming off a horrible season in 2020, that level of “progress” would tilt the balance in favor of the coach and his “unusual” ways. However, the Jags are not 6-7 and eight of their eleven losses have been by double-digits. You cannot squint hard enough to make the situation in Jax look any better than miserable
- Concurrent with fact that the Jags have been dominated on the field is the observation by folks who follow and cover the NFL that Trevor Lawrence is not improving measurably from week to week. Unless Lawrence was spectacularly lucky for three years of college football to complete two-thirds of his passes and throw for more than 10,000 yards, his performance this year is simply awful. Yes, the NFL is a more difficult environment, but Lawrence has been looking like a fourth-round pick hoping to hold onto a job as a clipboard holder than like a first overall draft pick. The Jags need him to develop, and he is not doing that.
Plenty of NFL coaches last only one year with a team but Meyer joins a much more exclusive club here. I can only think of three other NFL coaches who did not finish the first year of their employment:
- Bill Belichick with the Jets (his tenure in that position was measured in hours)
- Lou Holtz with the Jets
- Bobby Petrino with the Falcons
Back when Meyer signed on with the Jags, reports said the deal was for 5 years at “between $10M and $12M per year.” If that money were “guaranteed”, then Shad Khan’s decision to fire Meyer this week would cost him something on the order of $40-50M. Shed no crocodile tears for Messr. Khan; Forbes estimates his net worth at a cool $8.7B…
Earlier in this week before Urban Meyer was fired, I read a report about the futility of the Jags on the field. That report said that in the last 7 gamed, the Jags had only scored a total of 28 points meaning they were playing from behind an awful lot. Now that Meyer is fired, and I had a time to reflect on the lack of progress made by Trevor Lawrence that lack of progress looks even worse. Lawrence’s miserable NFL stats include lots of “garbage time” yardage wherein the defense knows the outcome of the game and is throttled down to a degree.
One bit of bad news for Jags’ fans is contained in these events but not highlighted. Shad Khan has owned the Jags for 10 years now. In those 10 years, he has hired:
- Mike Mularkey – – lasted 1 season and went 2-12
- Gus Bradley – – lasted 4 seasons minus 2 games and went 14-48
- Doug Marrone – – lasted 4 seasons +2 games and went 23-43
- Urban Meyer – – lasted 13 games and went 2-11.
That list tells me that the person making the decision about who to hire to be the head coach of the Jags is not particularly adept at the task. And that is the same guy who is going to perform that task again this off-season. A former colleague who is a psychologist was wont to say:
- “The single best predictor of future human behavior is past human behavior by that same human being.”
The other story of the week is another chapter in the investigative reporting done by the Washington Post into the “toxic work environment” in the Front Office of the Washington Football Team under its previous moniker. The latest report says that owner, Danny Boy Snyder actively sought to impede the investigation done by Beth Wilkinson for the NFL. There is a lot of “stuff” in the latest report and rather than trying to summarize it to the point that I leave out pertinent information, let me link to that report here and suggest you get yourself a cup of coffee – or a beverage of your liking – and read it for yourself.
This story is not over; the Post reporters have not moved on to find other things to occupy their time and energy – – and no, I have no idea what the next set of revelations might be. However, I would like to address what was the first thing that came to mind for callers to Washington sports radio shows the day the story hit the papers:
- Can this be the tipping point that forces the NFL to make Danny Boy Snyder sell the team?
For those of you who do not live in this area, you must understand that for a significant majority of the fans of the Washington Football Team there are two things that they wish for beyond all else:
- A Super Bowl victory
- A new owner for the team
- And for some, a new owner is equal to or greater in value than the Lombardi Trophy.
With that as a predicate, let me say that I doubt seriously that the latest revelations are anywhere near sufficient in gravity to start the ball rolling toward a forced sale of the team by Danny Boy Snyder. I think there are three reasons to take that position:
- Snyder’s actions – even if they are as bad or worse than has been reported – have not cost the other owners any money. The TV deal is not smaller than it would have been had he not been in the league. The CBA did not have any hang-ups because the players objected to his presence as an owner.
- Snyder’s teams have not been dominant for the last 20 years or so of his stewardship. There is no basis for jealousy on the part of other owners nor any reason for them experience schadenfreude as Snyder “twists in the wind”.
- Danny Boy Snyder is valuable to the other owners because he is the league’s “sh*t magnet”. Let me explain…
A former colleague attended West Point; he graduated with a degree in electronic engineering; served his time in Viet Nam; resigned his commission to go to grad school and became an excellent program manager. He often said that at West Point, the most popular guy in the platoon was the guy who screwed up the most; that cadet became the target and focus of attention and discipline by the tac officer meaning other cadets got marginally less scrutiny than they would have if the tac officer had spent equal time and energy on everyone in the platoon. That person was referred to as the “sh*t magnet” because whenever anything bad had to come down on someone for screwing up, the first place the tac officer looked was the “sh*t magnet”.
My colleague said that once a “sh*t magnet” had been established in a platoon by the tac officer, the identity never shifted so it then became important for the other members of the platoon to see to it that the “sh*t magnet’s” screw-ups were not so egregious as to get him thrown out of the Academy. If that happened, someone else would then assume that role and no one wanted to take the chance it might be him.
There is no way that any NFL owner under the influence of a working truth serum and hooked up to a polygraph would ever admit to thinking about another owner as the league’s “sh*t magnet.” But every time one of them – or anyone for that matter – thinks about another person’s misfortunes and says to themselves, “There but for the Grace of God go I,” there is a subtle recognition of that other person as a “sh*t magnet”. In that sense, I think the other NFL owners have no interest in finding another owner for the Washington Football Team because one of them might then become the next NFL “sh*t magnet”.
Looking quickly at last week’s games…
Rams 30 Cards 23: The Rams got a needed victory here to close down the NFC West race a bit despite being outgained on offense by almost 100 yards. The difference here was in turnovers; the Rams intercepted Kyler Murray twice and the Rams’ offense never turned the ball over. The Cards still lead the Rams by a game in the division but with their 9th win of the year, the Rams are almost guaranteed a slot in the playoffs even if they do not catch the Cards.
Falcons 29 Panthers 21: The stat sheet for the game is even except for the fact that the Panthers turned the ball over 3 times (including a Pick-Six) and the Falcons only turned it over once. The Panthers fired offensive coach Joe Brady before this game and head coach Matt Ruhle said that the basis was a difference in football philosophy. Well, the offensive philosophy on display in the absence of Brady manifest itself as 334 yards total offense and a platoon system at QB with Cam Newton and PJ Walker. Really…?
Browns 24 Ravens 22: The Browns led 24-6 at the half and then were shut out in the second half. Lamar Jackson left the game early with an ankle injury and was replaced by Tyler Huntley who produced a more-than-adequate stat line:
- 27of 38 for 270 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs
Huntley’s only costly mistake was that he was the victim of a defensive superfecta by Browns’ DE, Myles Garrett. On a play deep in Ravens’ territory, Garrett sacked the QB, stripped him of the ball, recovered the ball, and returned it for a TD. That would be a good day for many defensive ends; Garrett did that all on one play. The AFC North is now almost a tossup after 14 weeks of play:
- Ravens 8-5-0
- Browns 7-6-0
- Bengals 7-6-0
- Steelers 6-6-1
Cowboys 27 Football Team 20: This win belongs to the Cowboys’ defense; they held the Football Team to a total of 244 yards on offense for the day and forced 4 turnovers in the game. The Cowboys have not mathematically clinched the NFC East race, but they would have to suffer a collapse of massive proportions to lose that race.
Titans 20 Jags 0: Here is how bad the Jags were on offense in this game:
- Rushing yards: 8 yards on 8 attempts
- Total yards: 194 yards on 48 plays (4 yards per offensive snap)
- Time of possession: 23 minutes and 4 seconds
- Turnovers: 4 – – all of them INTs by Trevor Lawrence
The Jags never got to the Red Zone in the game and the Jags only crossed the 50-yardline twice in the game.
Chiefs 48 Raiders 9: On the first play of the game, the Chiefs’ defense forced a fumble, recovered it and returned if for a TD. Then things got worse for the Raiders… The Chiefs forced 5 turnovers in the game that led to 28 points. The halftime score was 35-3 and even that was embarrassing; on the final play of the first half with the score 35-0, the Raiders opted to kick a 26-yard field goal – – meaning the ball was inside the Chiefs’ 10-yardline. That is tantamount to running up a white flag of surrender. In addition, in that first half alone, the Raiders committed 7 penalties costing them 75 yards Since losing to the Titans in late October, the Chiefs have gone 6-0 and the defense has led the way. In those 6 games the Chiefs have given up a total of 65 points or 10.9 points per game.
Saints 30 Jets 9: The Jets only trailed 13-6 when the fourth quarter began. The Saints ran the ball for 203 yards in the game including 73 yards by QB Taysom Hill. Jets’ QB, Zack Wilson, struggled in the game completing only 19 of 42 passes for 202 yards. The Jets got into the Red Zone 3 times in the game and scored 0 TDs…
Seahawks 33 Texans 13: It was 16-13 at the half; then the Seahawks’ defense pitched a shutout for the second half. Texans’ QB, Davis Mills, was 33 of 49 for 331 yards in the game and that led coach David Cully to announce that Mills would be the starter for the Texans for the rest of the 2021 season. Here is what Dwight Perry had to say about that in the Seattle Times:
“Rookie Davis Mills has been named the 2-10 Houston Texans’ starting QB for the rest of the season.
“That’s the sports equivalent of someone pulling the pin on a grenade and handing it to you.”
Broncos 30 Lions 10: So much for the possibility that the Lions might execute a winning streak… The score was 17-10 at the half; here are the results of the Lions’ possessions in the second half: [WARNING: This is not a pretty picture.]
- Lost Fumble
- Turnover on Downs
- Turnover on Downs
- INT
- Final Whistle
Meanwhile, the Broncos’ offense was a model of efficiency on the day. They got to the Red Zone 5 times and scored 5 TDs.
Chargers 37 Giants 21: This game was not this close; the Giants scored 14 meaningless points in the final 5 minutes of the 4th quarter when the outcome had long been decided.
Bucs 33 Bills 27 (OT): This game was an aerial show; combined the two teams dropped back and threw the ball 100 times for the day. The two QBs completed 67 of those pass attempts for a combined 644 yards with 4 TDs and 1 INT. The biggest difference on the stat sheet for the game was in third-down conversions. The Bucs converted 8 of 16 while the Bills converted only 2 of 13. Nevertheless, the time of possession was a total of 13 seconds in favor of the Bills for the game. This was the most entertaining game to watch on Sunday…
Niners 26 Bengals 23 (OT): Here is another game that was dead even on the stat sheet save for 2 turnovers by the Bengals (lost fumbles) and 0 turnovers by the Niners. The win keeps the Niners playoff chances alive, but they trail the Cards by 3 games with only 4 left to play meaning they are all but eliminated from winning the NFC West.
Packers 45 Bears 30: Justin Fields had a mediocre day throwing the ball; he had 2 TDs and 2 INTs. However, he was also the Bears’ leading rusher in the game gaining 74 yards on 9 carries. The Bears led 10-0 early in the second quarter and led 27-21 at halftime; then the Packers scored 24 unanswered points in the next 25 minutes of the game putting it on ice.
Vikes 36 Steelers 28: The Vikes dominated the first half; the Steelers dominated the second half. Not much else to say about this one…
NFL Games:
The good news is that there are no more BYE Weeks in the 2021 season.
The scheduling quirk of Saturday games begins this week with Saturday games on NFL Network.
Last night’s game was an offensive showcase; the teams combined to gain a total of 924 yards on offense. It took overtime to give the Chiefs the win because the stat sheet was as even as could be. The Chargers lost the ball on downs three times in the game and each time they had a makeable field goal as their option. Analytics say they made the “right decision”; the problem is that the game outcome went counter to the numbers.
Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill had big games. Hill caught 12 passes for 148 yards and a TD. Kelce caught 10 passes for 191 yards and 2 TDs including the game winner in OT. This victory gives the Chiefs a 2-game lead in the AFC West.
A quick aside here before I get to this week’s games… I am going to find six selections from the list only because there is something about a Six-Pack that requires six selections. I may have to violate one of my “principles” and opt for selecting a team in a game with a double-digit spread. The card this week is simply a mess and the covid lists for various teams makes it impossible to know who will actually be able to play.
(Sat 4:30 PM EST) Raiders – 1 at Browns (38.5): This spread opened with the Browns as a 6-point favorite; then the Browns saw 11 players and head coach Kevin Stefanski go on the covid list this week. Baker Mayfield is one of those players on the list. As of this morning, the Browns have a total of 13 players on the covid list and the Raiders have none. This is a must-win game for the Raiders if they want to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. I am not enamored of the Raiders over the past month or so, but this looks like a situation where they will face the Browns’ JV team. I’ll hold my nose and take the Raiders to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.
(Sat 8:20 PM EST) Pats at Colts – 2.5 (46): This is my Game of the Week, and it is on a Saturday night on the NFL Network which is unavailable in lots of homes. The Pats have won 7 games in a row and hold a 2-game lead in the AFC East; the Colts trail the Titans by 2-games in the AFC South and the Titans hold the tiebreaker; this is not an elimination game for the Colts, but it is an important one. The Pats won their last game two weeks ago over the Bills by running the ball all the time; I do not think they can be as successful doing that against the Colts’ defense. By the same token, I do not think the Colts can count on Jonathan Taylor to dominate the game against the Pats’ defense.
Football Team at Eagles – 12.5 (44): This spread opened with the Eagles as 3-point favorites and then the covid lists started to grow in Washington. As of this morning there are 20 players on the list for the Football Team including 6 defensive linemen. Who knows who will be playing or not playing in this game?
Panthers at Bills – 11 (44.5): I can see the Panthers’ defense putting up resistance here, but I cannot see the Panthers’ offense doing any meaningful business against the Bills’ defense. The “two-platoon QB concept” from last week is not the answer
Jets at Dolphins – 9 (41): The Jets are a mess; there is no way to ignore that reality. I am not impressed by the Dolphins’ offense, but I am even less impressed by the Jets’ defense. I’ll take the Dolphins at home to win and cover with only marginal enthusiasm; put it in the Six-Pack.
Cowboys – 10.5 at Giants (44): The Cowboys appear to have gotten things back on track; they dominated the Football Team last week. On the other sideline, the Giants are in disarray. I like this game to go OVER because I see the Cowboys scoring in the 30s here; put that in the Six-Pack. Only because I need to find six selections on this list let me try another one here. I’ll also take the Cowboys to win and cover on the road; put that in the Six-Pack too.
Packers – 5.5 at Ravens (43.5): The Ravens only have 2 players on the covid list – – but their injury list looks like the old Manhattan Telephone Directory. That spread tells me the oddsmakers expect Lamar Jackson to play in the game; we shall see. This game got some consideration as the Game of the Week since it matches two Division leaders.
Titans – 1 at Steelers (43): This is not an elimination game for the Steelers – – but it’s close. Meanwhile the Titans have a 2-game cushion in their Division, so the “urgency factor” is clearly on the Steelers’ sideline.
Texans at Jags – 4.5 (39): I don’t care if one of the teams in some other game has so many players on the covid list that they have to quickly sign up local high school kids to play this Sunday; this game would still be the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. The spread for this game is all over the place with the Jags being favored by 5 points at some sportsbooks and by as few as 3.5 points elsewhere. There must be something more interesting for you to do compared to watching this mess of a game.
Cards – 13.5 at Lions (47): The Cards lost on Monday night and now have to go on the road on a short week of preparation. Normally, that is a reason to play the opponent – – but there are two realities to this matchup:
- The Cards are 7-0 on the road this year.
- The opponent is the Detroit Lions.
Falcons at Niners – 9 (46.5): Neither team is consistent week to week. The Niners are the better team and might win this game by 3 TDs – – or they could lose outright. The Falcons are 5-2 on the road this season and the Niners are 2-4 at home this season. You would need Ouija board to unravel this one…
Bengals at Broncos – 3 (44): Both teams need to win this game badly to stay in the playoff picture. Neither team has an extensive covid list for this week and I think the game will come down to the Bengals’ offense versus the Broncos’ defense. The Bengals have lost 2 games in a row so the coaching staff there has been able to chew on the players to get them ready here. I’ll take the Bengals on the road plus the points; put it in the Six-Pack.
Seahawks at Rams – 5.5 (45.5): The Rams won a huge game on Monday over the Cards; I smell a let-down game coming here. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have won 2 games in a row and have shown some energy in those wins scoring a total of 63 points in those two games. Purely a hunch, but I’ll take the Seahawks on the road plus the points here; put it in the Six-Pack.
(Sun Nite) Saints at Bucs – 11 (46.5): This spread varies significantly from sportsbook to sportsbook; this morning I can find it as high as 12.5 points and as low as 10 points; this number seems to be the fulcrum. If the Saints lose here, they will be eliminated from the NFC South race and their wildcard chances will take a serious hit as well. The Bucs are clearly the better team, but I do not like them nearly enough to lay that many points in a game that is far less meaningful to them than it is to the Saints.
(Mon Nite) Vikes – 4.5 at Bears (45): The Bears are 4-9 and yet, they are still mathematically in the playoff race in the NFC. Do not waste your time searching for how that can happen; it will not happen. Obviously, it starts with the Bears “winning out”. The Vikes are 6-7 and are in the thick of the wildcard scrum; the Vikes have been playing close games all year and seem never to miss a chance to make the game go down to the final drive or even the final play in the fourth quarter.
So, let me review this week’s Six-Pack:
- Raiders – 1 over Browns
- Dolphins – 9 over Jets
- Cowboys/Giants OVER 44
- Cowboys – 10.5 over Giants
- Bengals +3 against Broncos
- Seahawks + 5.5 against Rams.
And here is a Money Line Parlay for your viewing pleasure…
- Bills @ minus-600
- Dolphins @ minus-400
- Cowboys @ minus-500
- Bucs @ minus-500
- Bengals @ +140 A $100 wager here wins $404
Finally, in the aftermath of the Niners game in Seattle two weeks ago, Scott Ostler of the SF Chronicle offered this Tweet:
“I’d like to thank the Seattle Seahawks for fighting global warming by keeping press box at 30 degrees. Looking for dog with a flask of brandy.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………
What, Lou Holtz gets a bye?
Another Jets coach, another big time college, small time pro coach.
Ed:
I don’t understand. I had Holtz, Petrino and Belichick on the list of coaches who did not finish out a year on the job. ???