Mythical Picks – NCAA – Weekend Of 11/19/16

 

Last week was a minor speedbump for Mythical Picks.  I made 13 selections and the record for the week was 6-7-0.  That leaves the cumulative season record standing at 91-79-0.

The Best Picks from last week were:

• USC +9 against Washington.  USC won straight up by 13 points.
• Georgia +10.5 against Auburn.  Georgia won straight up by 6 points.

The Worst Picks from last week were:

• Va Tech -10 against Ga Tech.  Va Tech lost the game by 10 points.
• Texas -2 against W. Virginia.  Texas lost straight up.

No one ought to use any information here as the basis for making a real wager involving real money on a real NCAA football game this weekend.  Looking at last week’s results should make the folly of doing anything like that plain and obvious.  However, should anyone need convincing on that point, here is how stupid you would need be to do something like that:

You think a Roman Numeral is a number that cannot stand still.

 

General Comments:

 

The Linfield College Wildcats finished their regular season last week with a 27-10 victory at home over Pacific Lutheran.  The Wildcats record for the year is 8-1; they won the Northwest Conference going undefeated in conference games; they are going to be participants in the Division III football playoffs.  This week the team travels to Abilene, TX to take on Hardin-Simmons.  Interestingly, Hardin-Simmons has only 1 loss this year too and both Linfield and Hardin-Simmons lost to the same team – Mary Hardin-Baylor.  Go Wildcats!

The Eastern Washington Eagles also won last week defeating Idaho State 48-17.  That gives the Eagles a 9-1 record for the season with one game remaining before the Division 1-AA playoffs begin.  This week, the team visits Portland State.  The Eagles are scoring an average of 45.9 points per game this year.

Eagles’ WR, Cooper Kupp had another “versatile day” last week:

• He caught 7 passes for 70 yards.
• He ran the ball twice for 3 yards and 1 TD.
• He was 1 for 1 in passing for 21 yards.
• He returned a punt for 76 yards and a TD.

Just another day at the office…

After the first week of the college football season this year, Houston had upset then #3 ranked Oklahoma.  I – and others – thought an undefeated Houston team might crash the CFP events after the season was over and looked ahead to last night when Houston met Louisville.  It appeared to be the game on the Houston schedule that could trip them up.  A loss to Navy and then an inexplicable loss to SMU took Houston out of the running for any sort of consideration for the CFP and last night’s game with Louisville lost a lot of its glamor.

Last night is an example of why God inspired someone to invent the DVR.  I was able to watch the Saints/Panthers game and record the Houston/Louisville game at the same time.  Then I was able to watch the college game without ads or replay stoppages after the NFL game.  Life is good…

Houston demolished Louisville 36-10 and the domination was the Houston defense shutting down the vaunted Louisville offense and forcing turnovers.  Louisville’s net offense for the game was 313 yards and Houston recorded 11 – that is ELEVEN – sacks in the game.  Louisville came out of this week’s CFP Selection Committee deliberations ranked #5.  With Michigan and Ohio State in the Top 4 slated to play one another down the line, Louisville was “next in line” for an invitation.  After watching the way Louisville was rolled last night, I do not see any way for Louisville to make the playoffs.  That game was supposed to have the potential to welcome Houston as an outsider into the playoffs; what happened was that the game dismissed Louisville from playoff consideration.

At the upper echelon of college football, the CFP Selection Committee had to deal with three of its previous 4 top ranked teams losing last week.  Washington dropped out of the Top 4 and Ohio State jumped into the Top 4.  As of this moment here are the rankings:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Clemson

That order is highly unlikely to prevail to the end of the season since there is a game between Ohio State and Michigan still on the dance card.  Of course, one team could prevail by a point in a game that was tight from start to finish and that might leave things as they are – – but that is not likely.  So, some change is to be expected.  However, that is not the most interesting thing about these rankings from my point of view.

In previous years, the CFP Selection Committee has put a lot of weight on teams that win their conference championship; and to my mind, that is a good thing.  However, given the situation in hand, it is possible that neither Ohio State nor Michigan will make it to the Big 10 Championship Game let alone be the conference champion.  Let me explain:

• If Penn State wins out (the final 2 games are against Rutgers and Michigan St. both of whom are at the bottom of the Big 10 standings), Penn State would finish the season with a conference record of 8-1 in the East Division.
• If Ohio State beats Michigan St. this week and then beats Michigan, Ohio State will also have a conference record of 8-1 in the East Division.  However, Ohio State will not be in the conference championship game because its one loss was to Penn State.
• If Ohio State beats Michigan, then Michigan will have 2 losses in conference and will not be in the conference championship discussion.

In that scenario, half of the current Top 4 will not win its division within its conference let alone the conference championship.  Holy conundrum, Batman!

A couple of weeks ago, I pointed out that a 3-way tie could happen in the Big-10 East Division but Michigan’s loss to Iowa last week makes that situation infinitesimally probable.  I mention it here not to go through how it might happen – or to suggest that I think it might happen.  Rather, a couple of weeks ago, I said that I did not know how the Big 10 would resolve such a 3-way tie and that I was too lazy to go and find that information.  Naturally, the reader from Houston who is the maven on sports stats and history provided me with the answer.  Let me take this opportunity to thank him for the information and to outline it here for everyone’s edification:

 

If the three teams are tied and are 1-1 against each other, then the following steps are used until a determination is made.  If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams is the winner:

The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.

The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).

The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.

The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding FCS games] shall be the winner.

Finally, they draw straws to determine the winner.

 

If I were making the rules, I would modify this so that when you get to “Step 5” above, the school Athletic Directors would play Rock-Paper-Scissors in a round-robin format to determine the winner.  You could televise that on the Big 10 Network.

Enough about the CFP rankings and related matters; things will sort themselves out over the next couple of weeks.  In on-field results last week, Notre Dame beat Army convincingly 44-6; this was Notre Dame’s 15^th consecutive win over Army.  The Irish have to win out (against Va Tech and then USC) to get to 6 wins for the year and eligibility for a minor bowl game.  I wonder if Notre Dame would “stoop to” accepting an invitation to play a “Sun Belt opponent” in a game with no tradition or import.  Given their schedule, I do not think Notre Dame will have to worry about such things.  Army still needs at least one more win to be bowl-eligible; if they get an invitation, they will take it.

Michigan beat Kent St. 37-21 in MAC action last week. This is interesting because W. Michigan and Alabama are the only two undefeated teams in Division 1-A football.  In this game, Kent St. took a 14-0 lead in the first quarter but then W. Michigan put the clamps on.  The W. Michigan defense held Kent St to 293 yards’ offense for the game; meanwhile, the W. Michigan offense gained 329 yards running the ball.  I am not trying to suggest that W. Michigan belongs in the CFP Top 4 or that the two undefeated teams – Alabama and W. Michigan – should play one another.  However, W. Michigan is 10-0 and after beating Northwestern by a single point in Week 1, their smallest margin of victory since then has been 14 points.

Idaho beat Texas St. 47-14 last week.  Idaho won its 6^th game of the year making it bowl-eligible and that is a tad ironic.  Idaho is being kicked out of the Sun Belt Conference this year – along with New Mexico State – and the speculation was that Idaho would drop down from Division 1-A football to Division 1-AA football.  Division 1-AA does not do bowl games; those events are solely the province of Division 1-A schools.  Therefore, the possibility exists for Idaho to play its final Division 1-A game as a bowl game before it drops to a level where bowl games do not exist.

In games from last week with SHOE Tournament implications:

• FAU beat UTEP 35-31.  Both teams are now 3-7
• Rice beat UNC-Charlotte 22-21.  Rice is 2-8 and it just beat a 4-win team. Hmmm…
• La-Monroe beat Georgia St. 37-21.  Georgia St. is now 2-8.

Starting in the ACC this week, Miami (FL) beat Virginia 34-14 last week.  The game was about as lopsided as the score would lead you to believe.  Virginia’s record this year now stands at 2-8.  I am tempted to put Virginia on the SHOE watchlist but the two wins are over Duke and over C. Michigan – a team with 6 wins already this year.  Verry interesting …

Ga Tech beat Va Tech 30-20 last week.  Basically, Ga Tech just ran the ball and ran the ball and then ran the ball some more.  The Yellow Jackets gained 310 yards on 56 carries for the game; the Yellow Jackets’ passing game had this stat line:

• 2 for 7 for 34 yards

Had Va Tech won, they would have guaranteed their slot in the ACC Championship Game but 4 turnovers and a missed chip shot field goal postponed that situation.

Duke beat UNC 28-27 last week.  The Blue Devils could still gain bowl-eligibility if they win out over the next two weeks.  UNC had a shot at repeating as ACC Coastal Division Champ this year but they needed to win out and have Va Tech lose a game.  Tech obliged but the Tar Heels did not keep up their end of the bargain.  UNC had an early 14-0 lead but could not seal the deal…

There were some shocking ACC results from last week but none was as big a surprise as Pitt beating Clemson 43-42.  Two weeks ago, I suggested some possible additions to the English language building on the relatively common jargon of “Clemsoning” which has come to mean Clemson losing a game to an inferior team for no good and discernable reason.  Here is a link to that commentary.

It is not as if Clemson just had a bad day here.  DeShaun Watson threw for 580 yards and 3 TDs.  He also threw 3 INTs and one of them came in the 4^th quarter with Clemson leading 42-34.  Pitt got a TD from that turnover but missed on a 2-point conversion.  Pitt then had one more possession and turned into a field goal by Chris Blewitt with 6 seconds to play and a 43-42 win for the Panthers.  Let me point out two excellent performances by 2 Pitt offensive players:

• RB, James Connor ran for 137 yards and 1 TD
• QB, Nathan Peterman was 22 for 37 for 308 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs

In Big 12 games last week, Iowa St. beat Kansas 31-24.  Clearly, this was a SHOE Team Showdown.  They are both “on the list”.  Here is why it will take a miracle in the final games of 2016 for Kansas to come off the list:

• Kansas has lost 23 consecutive games against Division 1-A opponents.

Here is why Iowa State is unlikely to come off the list:

• The last time Kansas beat a Division 1-A opponent, it was Iowa St.
• Iowa St. has a loss this year to a Division 1-AA team.

Oklahoma St. beat Texas Tech 45-44 last week.  With 1:39 left in the game, Tech had just scored a TD to make the score 45-44.  It looked as if this game was destined for OT that could go on for a while and send both teams’ scores into the 60s or maybe the 70s before there was a winner.  Then the Tech kicker missed the PAT; it wasn’t blocked; he just missed it.  Hi-ho!  There was a distinct lack of defense in the game; combined, the two teams gained 1155 yards for the game.

Oklahoma beat Baylor 45-24 sending the Bears down to defeat for the third game in a row.  Making thins much worse for Baylor is that they have lost QB Seth Russell for the rest of the year with a “severely dislocated ankle” that required him to be carried from the field last week.  Oklahoma QB, Baker Mayfield was 20 for 25 for 300 yards and 2 TDs in this game.

Oklahoma is leading the Big 12 at the moment with a 7-0 record in conference.  However, there are two teams with only 1 loss in conference games – West Virginia and Oklahoma St.  Oklahoma’s two remaining games are against West Virginia – this week – and Oklahoma St. after that.

West Virginia put itself into this contending position beating Texas last week 24-20.  West Virginia played good defense keeping Texas’ offensive aces RB D’Onta Foreman and QB Shane Buchelle from running wild.  Even though the West Virginia offense turned the ball over 4 times, the defense kept the Mountaineers in the game to the end.

This loss for Texas allowed the “Fire Charlie Strong Chorus” to get an encore performance in Austin.  Texas needs one more win to be bowl-eligible in 2016; the Longhorns were 5-7 last year and did not go to a bowl game.  This week, Texas travels to Kansas to play the Jayhawks.  If they lose that game, it would not shock me to see someone else coach Texas for the final game of the year against TCU.  The big-money boosters would probably view a loss to Kansas about as fondly as they would view the loss of an oil-field…

Moving on to Big 10 happenings, I mentioned above how Penn St. can be the East Division Champion this year.  They stayed on that track last week by beating Indiana 45-31.  Indiana led at the end of the 3^rd quarter, 24-21 but Penn State scored 2 TDs and a field goal in the final 4 minutes of the game to salt it away.

Going into last Saturday’s game, Michigan St. and Rutgers were the only two teams who were winless in Big 10 conference games.  The outcome here – a 49-0 shellacking by Michigan St. – demonstrates that Rutgers is a Big 10 team in name only.  In seven Big 10 games this year, the cumulative score is:

Opponents: 290          Rutgers:  73

            The degree of dominance by the Spartans last week is shown by this one stat from the game; Michigan St. outgained Rutgers 440 yards to 149 yards.

Wisconsin leads the West Division in the Big 10 on the basis of holding a head-to-head tiebreaker with Nebraska; if the Badgers win out, they will be in the Big 10 Championship Game.  Last week they clobbered Illinois 48-3.  That score shows two things:

• The Wisconsin defense is for real.
• Illinois just stinks.

Ohio St. beat Maryland 62-3 last week.  Two weeks ago, Ohio St. beat Nebraska by the identical score.  The Maryland score for the day came in a situation where the Terps had the ball first and goal on the Ohio St. 3 yardline but managed to go nowhere on 3 downs.  So, they kicked a field goal.  Not that it mattered that they did not get a TD then…  Maryland began the year with 4 consecutive wins over Howard, FIU, UCF and Purdue; then some real opponents showed up for kickoff and the Terps are now 5-5.  To be bowl eligible, they need to win one of their last two games:

• At Nebraska this week – – Maryland is a 2TD underdog
• Vs Rutgers next week – – If they lose that one at home, shame on them.

Iowa beat Michigan 14-13; and frankly, that was the biggest shock of a shocking week of college football to me.  A 33-yard field goal with 3 seconds on the clock won the game for Iowa.  Two surprising stats from the game:

• Michigan ran the ball 35 times and only gained 98 yards rushing.
• Iowa QB, CJ Beathard, was 8 for 19 for 66 yards and Iowa won the game.

That is the fourth consecutive time Michigan has gone to Iowa and come home as a loser.  Compounding the agony, Michigan lost its QB, Wilton Speight, with a broken collarbone in this game.

The SEC produced some surprises and some interesting scores last week too.  Alabama did not succumb to the fate of the other 3 teams in the Top 4; instead of losing last week, Alabama smothered Mississippi St. 51-3.  It was one of the “early start” games on Saturday and I sat down thinking it would be a better game than I usually get to watch in that time slot.  I had to turn away; it was too lopsided to pay attention to.  Alabama gained 615 yards in this game and Mississippi St. gained 275; as I said it was too lopsided to watch.

Tennessee beat Kentucky 49-36.  Kentucky had a shot at the SEC East Division title but this was their 4^th conference loss and that puts them out of the picture.  Tennessee, however, is squarely in the picture for that division title and a chance to go to the SEC Championship Game to play Alabama one more time this year.  Here is how Tennessee wins the SEC East:

1. The Vols must win their final 2 games against Missouri and Vandy.  Hardly impossible…
2. Florida must lose this week to LSU in Baton Rouge.  Hardly impossible…

Tennessee ran the ball for 376 yards last week averaging 9.2 yards per carry.  Normally, when a team does that, they have dominated the stat sheet with regard to rushing.  Not last week – – Kentucky ran the ball for 443 yards in that game; they averaged 8.1 yards per attempt.

Ole Miss beat Texas A&M 29-28; that is the 3^rd loss in conference games for the Aggies.  Ole Miss had to use a redshirt freshman at QB, Shea Patterson, because starting QB, Chad Kelly, is out for the season with a knee injury.  Patterson turned in a performance that had to encourage the Ole Miss coaching staff; Patterson was 25 for 42 for 338 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT.  The Aggies led 21-6 as the 4^th quarter began and found a way to lose the game.  Ole Miss is 5-5 and needs a win for bowl-eligibility; they will go looking for that status against Vandy this week.

LSU demolished Arkansas 38-10.  LSU ran the ball for 391 yards here; recall two weeks ago against Florida, the Arkansas defense allowed a total of 12 yards rushing in that game.  The dominant running back was not Leonard Fournette.  Yes, he gained 98 yards in the game and scored 3 TDs but the dominant running back was Derrius Guice who carried 21 times for 252 yards and 2 TDs.

Florida goes to Baton Rouge this week coming off a 20-7 win over S. Carolina.  Florida needs the win to assure the SEC East Division crown.  Last week against S. Carolina, the Florida defense controlled the game only giving up 256 yards.  Florida has injuries galore; potentially 9 of the team’s 22 starters might be inactive for the LSU game.  That compounds a problem the Gators had from the start of the season; the Florida offense no big deal even when they had all those starters on the field.

Georgia beat Auburn 13-7.  The Auburn defense did its job; the only Georgia TD came on a Pick Six.  The Auburn offense was AWOL; consider:

• Passing offense was 8 for 22 for 37 yards – – and that Pick Six.
• Zero first downs in the second half of the game
• Total offense in second half of the game was 34 yards.
• Total offense for the entire game was 164 yards.

TV analyst for SEC games, Gary Danielson, said that Auburn’s offense in the second half was “one of the worst” he had seen…

In the PAC-12, Stanford beat Oregon 52-27.  The loss drops Oregon to 3-7 for the season and they cannot get to bowl-eligible status this year with only 2 games left to play.  Stanford jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter and led 52-13 after three quarters; two late TDs by Oregon made the score as minimally acceptable as it is.  AS you may imagine, Oregon coach, Mark Helfrich is on a very hot seat.  Brad Rock recognized that with this comment in the Deseret News:

“Oregon booster Phil Knight is rumored to be offering $10 million annually for a new football coach.

“At that price, they should hire Denzel Washington and really get something done.”

Washington St. beat Cal 56-21 and took the lead in the PAC-12 North Division race.  QB, Luke Falk was 36 for 50 for 373 yards with 5 TD passes (including 3 to WR, River Cracraft) and 1 INT.  The Cougars offense was not one-dimensional; they also ran the ball for 254 yards in the game.

The big shock in the PAC-12 was seeing Washington lose convincingly to USC by a score of 26-13.  Simply put, USC freshman QB, Sam Darnold had a better stat line than did Washington QB, Jake Browning:

• Darnold:  23 for 33 for 287 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs
• Browning: 17 for 36 for 259 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs

USC lost 3 games early in the season and was left as roadkill then.  However, the Trojans are 6-2 in the PAC-12 South with one conference game left to play (against UCLA this week).  Colorado is 6-1 in conference play leading USC by a half-game.  The Buffaloes have to play Washington State (undefeated leader of the PAC-12 North) this week and then close out the regular season with a visit by Utah (the other PAC-12 South team with only 2 conference losses).  This could get very interesting but I do have to say that USC looked really good against Washington last week and will be a tough out down the road.

 

The Ponderosa Games:

 

Last week we had 7 Ponderosa Games.  The record for favorites covering in those Ponderosa games was 5-2-0 bringing the season record for favorites covering to 38-39-1.

Alabama, Ohio St., San Diego St., W. Kentucky and Wisconsin covered.

Houston and Louisville did not cover.

This week we have 10 Ponderosa Games:

 

(Fri Nite) UNLV at Boise St. – 28.5 (66):  UNLV beat Wyoming in triple OT last week; that means Boise St. has a shot at the Mountain West Championship which could also mean a shot at the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Day.  The way for Boise St. to take advantage here is to turn around and beat the team that put them in this advantageous position.  Look for it to happen…

 

La-Monroe at Appalachian St. – 25.5 (53):  La-Monroe has won 2 in a row but still needs to win its last 2 games to be bowl-eligible.  Looks like that is not gonna happen…

 

Wisconsin – 28 at Purdue (48):  Looks like an easy win for Wisconsin …

 

Tex-San Antonio at Texas A&M – 27.5 (57.5):  Texas A&M has lost 2 SEC games this year and has LSU coming up next.  Consider this a scrimmage for the Aggies…

 

UMass at BYU – 28 (56):  There are not a lot of independents in college football.  This is a match between two of them…

 

Indiana at Michigan – 24 (51.5):  Michigan should be upset by the way it lost last week to Iowa but on the other hand, they have to play without their starting QB.

 

Arizona St. at Washington – 27 (65):  Washington should be upset by the way it lost last week to USC and Arizona St is not very good this year…

 

Buffalo at W. Michigan – 35 (58):  W. Michigan rolls on to 11-0 here – – unless of course this game is against the Buffalo Bills…

 

Texas – 24 at Kansas (63):  If Texas loses this game, I would not be surprised to read that Charlie Strong was fired in the locker room and had to rent a car to drive home to Texas.  If Texas wins but does not cover, the team will be happy and the students will be happy but the boosters will not…

 

Penn St. – 28 at Rutgers (57.5):  If Penn St. loses this game, they may need to rename Happy Valley permanently…

 

The SHOE Teams:

 

This week, I will give you my 8 SHOE Tournament participants and then a list of “Also getting votes” …

In alphabetical order, here are the 8 worst teams as of this week:

 

Bowling Green: 2-8 in the MAC

Fresno St: 1-9 and that win was over Sacramento St.

Kansas: 1-9 (see above)

New Mexico St.: 2-7 and getting kicked out of the Sun Belt conference

Rice:  2-8 but one of those wins was over Prairie View A&M.

Rutgers: 2-8 (see above)

Texas St. 2-8 and some of those losses have been huge ones

UMass 2-8 but the wins are over FIU and Wagner

 

The other teams under consideration this week in alphabetical order are:

 

Arizona 2-8

Georgia St. 2-8

Iowa St. 2-8

Virginia 2-8

 

 

Games of Interest:

 

UConn at BC – 9 (37):  This is not a betting game but it is interesting because of the numbers here.  The oddsmaker is telling us there will not be a lot of scoring here and yet if you want to back BC here you have to lay more than a TD.  No thank you …

 

UTEP at Rice – 1.5 (57.5):  Clearly a game of interest for the SHOE Tournament Selection Committee …

 

Texas Tech – 3 at Iowa St. (75):  Tech needs to win out to become bowl-eligible; Iowa St. has no such aspirations having already lost 8 games this year.  Iowa St. is on the SHOE list but they have the better scoring defense this year.

• Iowa State allows 31.7 points per game (91^st in the country)
• Texas Tech allows 42.1 points per game (125^th in the country)

The question here is this:  Can Iowa St. defend the pass well enough to keep Texas Tech from running up 50+ points?  The Cyclones’ pass defense ranks 60^th in the country which is neither bad nor good.  Purely a hunch, I’ll take Iowa St. plus the points here as Iowa St.

 

Oklahoma – 3.5 at West Virginia (66):  Oklahoma has a potent offense indeed; West Virginia has – for the Big 12 – a very good defense.  Oklahoma leads the Big 12; West Virginia needs a win here to stay alive in the Big-12 championship race.  This game is about as important a game as any on the card this weekend.  Given the West Virginia motivation and the home-field venue, I’ll take West Virginia plus the points.

 

Va Tech at Notre Dame – 1 (54):  Notre Dame needs to win out to make it to a bowl game so there is plenty of motivation there.  Va Tech is going to go to the ACC Championship Game and probably get pounded by Clemson.  There is no history between these schools; they have never met on a football field before this weekend.  Again, a venue call; I’ll take Notre Dame to win and cover.

 

K-State – 1 at Baylor (59.5):  As mentioned above, Baylor will be without their starting QB, Seth Russell, for the rest of the season.  That is not a good twist for Baylor because the Baylor defense is not a unit that has shown it can carry the team very far; it gives up 412.7 yards per game.  I like K-State’s chances with its first string offensive players against Baylor’s chances with a backup QB.  I’ll take K-State and lay the point.

 

Texas St. at New Mexico St. – 9 (66):  Two SHOE Teams play each other…

 

Washington St. at Colorado – 6 (59):  Colorado is in first place in the PAC-12 South with 1 loss in conference games.  Washington St. is in first place in the PAC-12 North and is undefeated in conference games.  The line opened at 3.5 points and has climbed slowly all week long; the money is going to Colorado.  I like this game to go OVER.

 

Stanford – 11 at Cal (64):  This is a big rivalry game but it really has very little luster this year.  Stanford’s offense woke up last week and Stanford has the significantly better defense here.  I tend not to like to do this, but I’ll take Stanford and lay all those points – even on the road.

 

Ohio St. – 22 at Michigan St. (51):  Ohio St. has its sights set on Michigan – not Michigan St. – in the finale of Big 10 action.  Michigan St. is 1-6 in conference play – that win was last week over lowly Rutgers! – and it will play hard to find a way to salvage a smidgen of pride from this disastrous season.  This smells like a trap game to me and that is an awful lot of points.  So, I’ll take Michigan St. at home plus the points.

 

Clemson – 22.5 at Wake Forest (47):  No selection here but this game is of interest because a Clemson win puts them in the ACC Championship Game…

 

Missouri at Tennessee – 16.5 (67):  Tennessee is in a must-win situation to keep alive chances in the SEC East (see above).  Missouri just isn’t any good.  I think both teams will be able to move the ball on the opposing defense so I’ll take the game to go OVER.

 

USC – 13 at UCLA (52.5):  USC looked like world-beaters against Washington last week; UCLA has lost its starting QB and did not look all that great when they had him upright and playing.  Laying that many points in a bit rivalry game is not something I like to do (Stanford/Cal above notwithstanding) so I’ll pull for the two defenses to get the job done here and take the game to stay UNDER.

 

Oklahoma St. at TCU – 4.5 (70.5):  Oklahoma St. still has a chance to win the Big-12; it will take a lot of dominoes to fall in the right way, but they have a chance.  TCU needs one more win to become bowl-eligible.  TCU gives up 410 yards per game; Oklahoma St. gives up 451.2 yards per game.  I think two motivated offensive units will have their way in this game.  I’ll take the game to go OVER.

 

Oregon at Utah – 14 (70):  Short and simple here…  Utah is a good team that might be the PAC-12 South champion and/or the PAC-12 champion.  Oregon is 3-7 on the season but two of those wins were over Davis – (Division 1-AA) and UVa (on the SHOE watchlist).  I like Utah at home to win and cover.

 

Florida at LSU – 14.5 (37.5): Florida needs a win here to lock down the SEC East title and a date to play Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  That is the importance focus for the game.  An interesting – but monumentally unimportant – aspect of the game is that the two starting QBs for these teams used to go to Purdue and both transferred out.  Hi-ho!  That total line is awfully low even for these stout defenses and prosaic offenses.  I like the game to go OVER.

 

Finally, earlier this week, Brad Rock had this comment regarding Tennessee football in the Deseret News.  I doubt that Messr. Rock will be very welcome in Knoxvillle, TN should anyone there read it:

“An Oceanside, California, man was elected city treasurer, despite having passed away Sept. 23.

“Isn’t that like voting for Tennessee in the top 25 after it lost three straight games?”

Burt don’t get me wrong, I love sports………