NFL PreSeason Analysis – 2026

It is that time of the year again – – the time where I demonstrate how indifferent I am to personal embarrassment.  I have already opined on NFL coaches on a hot seat for this year and have penned a synoptic view of the NFL as of this preseason; those expositions provide some room for me to be shown up publicly, but they pale by comparison by what is to follow here.  All I am going to try to do today is to predict the final regular season record for each and every NFL team.

• What could possibly go wrong?

In case anyone thinks the errors of my prognostications here will be buried in the passage of time, I will revisit each of the predications in January or February of 2027 and give myself academic grades for accuracy.  Those post-mortem exercises are sobering and no laughing matter.

There used to be a guy on sports radio in the DC area many years ago named Ken Beatrice.  His mantra was that he would give you his opinion and the data that informed his opinion.  He would then say that is the best that he could do because he did not have a crystal ball.  Ken Beatrice is off in the cosmos somewhere, but I mention him here because his mantra is completely appropriate for this undertaking.  Onward …

I too lack a crystal ball; in fact, even if I had one, it would probably be filled with fog.  So, let me begin with the most global prediction for the day:

• The NFC will have a total of 141 wins in 2026.
• The AFC will have a total of 131 wins in 2026.

Let me start with the AFC East where I predict a cumulative record of 29-39-0.

• Bills – 11-6-0:  The Bills will win the Division this year with a new coach and presumably an improved defense – – not a really good defense, but one that can hold a lead provided by Josh Allen and company.  Just mentioning the name Josh Allen prompts me to say that he is THE engine of any Bills’ success in 2026; he is now 30 years old, and this should be one of his peak performance seasons.
• Pats – 10-7-0:  The Pats are the only team in the Division that can challenge the Bills.  I think the Pats will fall short this year for several reasons:
  • They will have to deal with Super Bowl hangover.
  • They have a much more difficult schedule this year compared to 2025.
  • The Pats will not “sneak up” on anyone in 2026.
• Nevertheless, the Pats did add an important weapon in the offseason when they acquired AJ Brown from the Eagles and don’t sleep on the addition of Romeo Doubs as another improvement for the passing game. They may not win their Division, but I expect to see the Pats in the playoffs and to see them acquit themselves well there.
• Jets – 5-12-0:  Yes, I have the Jets finishing out of the basement in the AFC East this year.  The team traded away their two best defensive players at the trading deadline last year and “stocked up” on draft picks.  I anticipate that Aaron Glenn and his staff recognize that they are coaching for their jobs in 2026 and will have those “young studs” motivated to play hard.  Yes, I know; the Jets also cast their lot with Geno Smith at QB and that he has been an interception machine recently.  So, I think the Jets will be “better” this year which is no high hurdle for them since they finished 2025 with a record of 3-14-0.
• Dolphins – 3-14-0:  This team is under reconstruction and by releasing Tua Tagovailoa in the Spring, they will compete in 2026 with almost $100M in “dead money” on their cap calculations.   The team has a new coach and presumably a new vector heading, but the roster seems a bit thin.  De’Von Achane is a quality RB; but the QB depth chart is Malik Willis, Quinn Ewers, Cam Miller and Mark Gronkowski – – pending final cutdowns.  It will be a long season in Miami.

Let me move now to the AFC North where I predict a cumulative record of 34-34-0.

• Ravens – 11-6-0:  I see the Ravens winning the Division with Lamar Jackson shrugging off a 2025 season that was mediocre by his standards.  The Ravens have a new coach, and Jesse Minter arrives with a defensive pedigree which is the part of the game where the Ravens stumbled most in 2025.  In addition to a defensive focus on the coaching staff, the Ravens acquired Trey Hendrickson in the offseason which should help with on-field performance.  One cautionary note here; the Ravens have only two dependable WRs on the depth chart as of this morning (Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman).  The team cannot afford longstanding injuries in that department.
• Bengals – 10-7-0:  It has been a while since the Bengals invested significant resources in their defense; that showed clearly in 2025 as the Bengals gave up 28.9 points per game.  In this offseason, the Bengals acquired the services of Dexter Lawrence for the DL and Boye Mafe as an edge rusher to replace Trey Hendrickson who is with the Ravens now.  In recent  years, the Bengals have started very slowly and then had to work to dig out of the hole they put themselves in.  Hopefully, the coaching staff has figured out what they need to do to avoid such a start in 2026.
• Steelers – 8-9-0:  That’s right; for the first time in 18 seasons, the Steelers will have a record below .500.  The Steelers are not just an experienced/veteran team; the Steelers are an old team.  There is plenty of talent there but much of that talent is reputation built in previous seasons.  Mike McCarthy is a good coach – much better than the reputation he carries around – but he will need to pull multiple rabbits out of multiple hats along the way in 2026 to get the Steelers over .500 once again.
• Browns – 5-12-0:  This is the same record the Browns posted in 2025, and I have no reason to think that the team will be significantly better or worse in 2026.  Todd Monken is the new coach, and he will be the one who gets to figure out if Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders gives the team the best chance to win games.  The defense will still be good even with the removal of Myles Garrett who cannot be replaced by anyone else on that roster.  Browns’ fans should start looking forward to a nice high draft pick starting around Halloween.

Next up will be the AFC South where I predict a cumulative record of 34-34-0.

• Texans – 11-6-0:  The Texans have an elite defense – one that is good enough to get them to the Super Bowl; that defense only gave up 17.3 points per game in 2025.  What the Texans also have is an unreliable offense that sometimes sputters to the point where is struggles to make double digits on the scoreboard.  The biggest weakness on offense was not CJ Stroud – even though he did regress in his performance in 2025.  The biggest weakness was the OL which had Stroud scrambling for his life too many times.
• Jags – 10-7-0:  Losing LB, Devin Lloyd, who had an All-Pro season in 2025 is going to cost the Jags’ defense.  The same goes for the loss of two DBs (Andrew Wingard and Greg Newsome).  Yes, Trevor Lawrence and the offense came to life under Liam Coen last year, but I don’t think the offense can account for all those losses on defense and hence, the record shows 3 fewer wins in 2026.
• Colts – 9-8-0:  The importance of Daniel Jones to the team was clearly on display in 2025; before he was injured, the Colts were flirting with the best record in the league; then they stumbled home with an 8-9-0 record losing their last 7 games in a row.  So, is Daniel Jones fully recovered such that he can pick up where he left off in mid-season last  year?  That is the biggest question surrounding the Colts as of now, but another puzzler is the defense up front; I am not convinced that is a stalwart unit.
• Titans – 4-13-0:  This is a team that could surprise on the upside; Cam Ward has Brian Daboll as the Offensive Coordinator and Daboll is good in that role.  So, this will be an interesting test to see if Ward really has the makings of a “franchise QB”.  If Ward disappoints, there is not much success behind him in the QB room (Mitchell Trubisky, Will Levis and Herndon Hooker).  I also expect that the Titans’ defense will be better this year than last year with Robert Saleh settling in on the sidelines; last year the Titans gave up 28.1 points per game, and the offense simply could not keep up.

Now, on to the AFC West where I predict a cumulative record of 34-34-0.

• Chargers – 10-7-0:  I think the acquisition of Mike McDonald as Offensive Coordinator will be a big deal for the Chargers.  He may have washed out as the head coach in Miami, but he has a solid résumé and an OC.  And he has a talented QB to work with in Justin Herbert this year. The “concern” this year is the same as the one last year – – the OL.  Injuries to both offensive tackles were impossible to overcome; can both guys be back and hold up in 2026?  The Chargers acquired center, Tyler Biadasz, in free agency this year and he will spend 2026 on Injured reserve.  Ladd McConkey is a solid WR; it would be very nice for another player on the roster at that position to assert themselves in 2026.
• Chiefs – 10-7-0:  They lose the Division on a tiebreaker with the Chargers but will make the playoffs.  Obviously, the key question here is the degree to which Patrick Mahomes has recovered/rehabbed from his surgery late last season.  Adding RB, Kenneth Walker III, from the Seahawks is a big plus for the team; losing Trent McDuffie in a trade that brought back draft picks will be a negative for the team in 2026.  One other question mark for the Chiefs is the production they can get from Travis Kelce; last year was far from his peak productivity so can that be reversed in 2026?
• Broncos – 9-8-0:  I realize that I am in the minority here, but I am not sold on Bo Nix.  I recognize that Sean Payton is orchestrating that offense and that he has had plenty of success with QBs whose skill sets were limited, and I know that the Broncos defense is very good.  But when I look at the schedule, I don’t see the Broncos being much better than .500.  [Aside: Be prepared to laugh at me when the Broncos go 14-3-0 and have home field advantage in the AFC playoffs …]
• Raiders – 5-12-0:  This is an improvement over 2025 of two full wins.  The team is undergoing major reconstruction, so this is the price the fans have to pay.  There is lots of hope around Fernando Mendoza and his potential upside, but the best thing that could happen to the Raiders is to play Kirk Cousins through Thanksgiving and then let Mendoza finish out the season after the team’s BYE Week in December; that would be 5 starts for the rookie after his sideline tutorial in September, October and November.  Klint Kubiak takes over as head coach, and he comes with impressive offensive cred.

 So, here is my prediction for the AFC Playoffs:

• Seed #1:  Ravens
• Seed #2:  Bills
• Seed #3:  Texans
• Seed #4:  Chargers
• Seed #5:  Chiefs
• Seed #6:  Pats
• Seed #7:  Bengals

And with that as the prelude, let me turn to the NFC and start with the NFC West where I predict a cumulative record of 35-33-0.

• Rams – 12-5-0:  In 2025, the Rams scored 30 points per game and gave up 20 points per game.  The offense is pretty much the same and they added Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie to the defense.  The reason why I don’t think their record will improve over last season’s is that they have a very difficult schedule and have 4 guaranteed difficult contests against the Seahawks and the Niners.  Last year, Matthew Stafford was questionable with a back injury; that did not debilitate him in 2025 and there seems to be no focus on that again in 2026.  Will Aaron Donald return from retirement this year to join in the fun and games?
• Seahawks – 11-6-0:  The reigning Super Bowl champs are not going to win their Division this year but are going to be a force majeure in the playoffs.  Why the 3-win dropoff for 2026?
  • Every team on their schedule will be gunning to prove that they are equally as capable as the Super Bowl champs.
  • It is unlikely that they can match last year’s points per game allowance – – 17.1 points per game.
  • The “Super Bowl Hangover” is a real thing.  Most reigning champs do not repeat.
• Losing OC, Klint Kubiak, to the Raiders as the head coach there, is unlikely to help Sam Darnold continue his miraculous in-career renaissance; if reports I have read are correct, Kubiak’s replacement, Brian Fleury has never had a season’s worth of play calling responsibility.
• Niners – 10-7-0:  I recognize that Kyle Shanahan has always found ways to plug in behind injured players and come up with winning records.  In fact, that is why I have them with a winning record here; injuries always haunt the Niners, and this season does not look as if it will buck the trend.  Can Nick Bosa and Fred Warner stay available on defense in 2026?  If so, this win estimate may be a bit low.  Injury reports out of training camp are always gut-punches to fans; Niners’ fans have become inured to injury reports.
• Cards – 2-15-0:  Yup.  This is the team that needs its college scouting department to do an outstanding job because I think the Cards will have the lead-off pick in the important Draft rounds in 2027.  The Cards finally reached an agreement with Jacoby Brisset to play QB for them in 2026.  Brisset is not a franchise QB; Brisset is a competent game-starter.  His performance is not the reason the Cards went 3-14-0 in 2025 – – but he is also not the reason the Cards are going to win a bunch of games in 2026.  Running back, Jeremiyah Love, is used to running behind dominant offensive lines at Notre Dame; he Is in for a shock with the group in front of him this year.
  • Memo for Cards’ fans:  Watch lots of college football games to convince yourselves that salvation for the Cards is just a couple of proper picks away.

Off we go to the NFC South where I have the cumulative division record at 32-36-0.

• Bucs – 9-8-0:  I have the Bucs returning to the top of this division after posting a losing record (8-9-0) in 2025 and losing the tiebreaker to the Panthers for the Division title.  I know that Baker Mayfield is the Bucs’ QB; even so, I still believe the Bucs have the best starting QB in that Division.  Here is a “franchise-level question”:
  • IF Todd Bowles and his team win the Division with a 9-8-0 record for the fourth time in five years and then go “one-and-done” in the playoffs, will that be enough to keep the team together through the next offseason?
• Saints – 8-9-0:  The Saints rallied from a horrendous start to the season to finish at 6-11-0 last year.  I don’t see them as a threat to any of the top contenders in the conference, but they could well post an improved record in 2026.  Losing their first-round pick to an injury in Training Camp was not positive news for a franchise seeking to elevate.
• Panthers – 8-9-0:  I vacillated on this one a lot; in one of my record considerations, I had the Panthers at 4-13-0 with the franchise undergoing a catastrophic collapse under a mercurial owner.  8-9-0 is the same record the Panthers achieved in 2025 when they won the Division and went to the playoffs for a cameo appearance.  Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan can provide some offensive firepower, but will it be enough?  The  Panthers were in the playoffs in 2025 even though they gave up 69 points more than they scored in the regular season.  I don’t see that happening again…
• Falcons – 7-10-0:  Harnessing your team to either Michael Penix, Jr. or Tua Tagovailoa is pretty much like choosing between Scylla and Charybdis – – if you will allow me a reference to The Odyssey here.
  • Penix is often injured and not overly accurate when he is in the game.
  • Tagovailoa is often injured and “erratic at best” from game to game.
• The Falcons have an elite RB and a couple of top-shelf pass catchers, but until and unless someone asserts himself at QB, they will be wandering in the wilderness.  If the Falcons were in a more dominant division, I would not have them anywhere near 7 wins for the season.

Next up is the NFC North – – the strongest division in the NFL for this year – – where I predict the cumulative record to be 40-28-0.

• Lions – 11-6-0:  I have the Lions winning the Division.  The offense will be top-shelf, and I think the defense can show better than in 2025 when injuries played a big part in the season results.  FYI, the Lions finished last in the Division last season and by finishing last in the División they draw an easier schedule this year than their Division rivals.  Check this out:
  • Lions – Division Losers in 2025 – play the Cards, Giants and Titans as their differentiated schedule from the rest of the Division.
  • Bears – Division Winners in 2025 – play the Eagles, Jags and Seahawks as their differentiated schedule from the rest of the Division.
• Losing David Montgomery to the Texans is a big deal, but the Lions hope to share snaps at RB between Jahmyr Gibbs and Isiah Pacheco this year.
• Bears – 10-7-0:  The Bears surprised just about everyone last year posting a record of 11-6-0 and winning the Division by a game-and-a-half.  There is no element of “surprise” left for the Bears and the schedule is not an easy one by any means (see above).  I believe that Ben Johnson’s offense will give major amounts of agita to defensive coordinators around the league and it would not be a huge surprise to see the defense improve just a bit.
• Packers – 10-7-0:  Put the Packers in third place in the Division based on tiebreakers.  The major question overhanging the Packers this season is really two questions:
  • How long until Micah Parsons can return to action?
  •  How long until Micah Parsons can return to action and play like Micah Parsons 1.0?
• Vikes – 9-8-0:  This prognostication could easily be off by 4 wins in either direction.  Kevin O’Connell might just resurrect the career of Kyler Murray the way he did for Sam Darnold, and the Vikes just might win 13 or 14 games.  On the other hand, Murray may be a certified mediocrity at QB and JJ McCarthy is no better and the Vikes in this tough division might finish with only about 5 wins.  The only prediction I feel comfortable about related to the Vikes is that Brian Flores’ defense will be efficient and effective and they will blitz a lot.

Last but not least, here is the NFC East where I see a cumulative record of 34-34-0.

• Eagles – 10-7-0:  Yes, I have the Eagles wining the Division again in 2026, but rest assured that this is the most tenuous division winner in this entire set of predictions.  I will defer to many reporters who say that Sean Mannion is the next offensive wunderkind in the NFL even though he has never had the responsibility for calling plays.  I will assume that Jalen Hurts can adapt to yet one more new OC this season.  I will assume the OL will open more holes for Saquon Barkley this year than they did against stacked defenses in 2025.  And most of all, I will assume that with Devonta Smith taking over “WR #1 duties” that someone else on the roster will become a better-than-average “WR #2”.  Other than those minor worries, I have the Eagles winning the Division and making the playoffs in 2026.
• Cowboys – 9-8-0:  Here is another tricky one.  The Cowboys’ offense is elite and should be able to score even more than the 27.7 points per game from last  year.  So, can the defense hold up its end of the bargain?  In 2025, the Cowboys’ defense was embarrassing; they don’t need to be “historically great” in 2026 to make the Cowboys serious opponents week to week, but they have to be better than they were last season when they gave up 30 points per game.
• Commanders – 8-9-0:  Jayden Daniels’ multiple injuries derailed the Commanders’ season in 2025 leading to this year’s question:
  • Is Daniels back to his 2024 form or has the elapsed time allowed defensive coordinators to devise ways to make him less explosive?
  • Of course, the secondary question there is can Daniels avoid more injuries this year; he was of injury concern coming out of college and has had a full year of injury history in his young NFL career.
• The Commanders revamped their defense entirely over this offseason and that is a good thing because that defense stunk in spades last season.  One interesting thing to watch on defense is that a rookie – – Sonny Styles – – is being called on as the play-caller on defense in his first year.  He is replacing future Hall of Famer, Bobby Wagner, in that role and even though Wagner had lost a step or two in 2025, he was always near the ball if not on the ball.  Can Sonny Styles equal that as a rookie?
• Giants – 7-10-0:  The biggest positive change for the Giants in 2026 is that with John Harbaugh on the sidelines, the team is under adult supervision.  The last time I could confidently say that was in 2015 when Tom Coughlin was the Giants’ head coach.  I like Jaxon Dart; I like the Giants’ front seven on defense; I like the Giants’ OL.  This is a team on the rise with more than a handful of very good young players.

So, here is my playoff seeding in the NFC:

• Seed #1:  Rams
• Seed #2:  Lions
• Seed #3:  Eagles
• Seed #4:  Bucs
• Seed #5:  Seahawks
• Seed #6:  Bears
• Seed #7:  Niners

And before I sign off today, here are my thoughts on which team will go “worst to first” in their divisions this year:

• Cards:  Last in 2025 and will be last again in 2026
• *Saints:  Last in 2025 but could win a bleak division here in 2026
• *Lions:  Last in 2025 and I have picked them to win the NFC North this year
• Giants:  Last in 2025; they will be better in 2026 but not that much better
• Jets:  Last in 2025; they will improve in 2026 but nowhere near the division champs.
• Browns:  Last in 2025 and last again in 2026
• Titans:  Last in 2025; they should improve a little but not nearly enough in 2026
• Raiders:  Last in 2025 and last again in 2026.

And one last thing to look for this year is a team that won their division in 2025 who might finish last in that division in 2026 – – the “first to worst” horror show:

• Seahawks:  No way they finish below the Cards
• *Panthers:  Prime candidates for this ignominy
• *Bears:  The Division is so tough that this could happen
• Eagles:  They may take a step back in 2026 but not so far as to trail the Giants
• Pats:  They are safe given the presence of the Jets and Dolphins in the Division
• Steelers:  Could take a step back but enough to finish below the Browns?
• Jags:  Not happening in 2026 with the Titans in the same Division
• Broncos:  Will not finish below the Raiders.

            Finally, since embarrassing myself is such a large part of this offering, let me close with a few notes on embarrassment:

“For my first show at ‘SNL’, I wrote a Bill Clinton sketch, and during our read-through, it wasn’t getting any laughs. This weight of embarrassment came over me, and I felt like I was sweating from my spine out. But I realized, ‘Okay, that happened, and I did not die.’ You’ve got to experience failure to understand that you can survive it.”  [Tina Fey]

And …

“Embarrassment is where growth happens.”  [Jaylen Brown]

And …

“The rate at which a person can mature is directly proportional to the embarrassment he can tolerate.” [Douglas Engelbart]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………