Football Friday 9/27/24

Well, I have had a full week in one place and am looking forward to my first full weekend able to watch football this year.  [Foreshadowing:  I’ll be off the air again next week …]  And so, I will attempt today to do a garden-variety Football Friday including a “Betting Bundle”.  Who knows?  I may just get back in the habit sometime later this season.

The Linfield University Wildcats improved their record to 2-1 in dramatic fashion last week beating the University of the Redlands 45-0.  I just realized that Linfield has expanded its regular season schedule from 9 games as it has been in the past to 10 games in 2024.  All three of the games to date have been out-of-conference contests and Linfield will begin Northwest Conference play next weekend on the road in Salem OR taking on the Bearcats of Willamette University.  The Wildcats inserted a BYE Week in the schedule this year as well.

My pre-season “sleeper team” for 2024 – – the Nebraska Cornhuskers – – lost in OT last week to Illinois, 31-24.  That gives the Huskers a record of 3-1 for the season as they go on the road to take on Purdue this weekend.  Nebraska is a 10-point favorite in that game.  Go Huskers!

 

College Football Commentary:

 

TCU lost last weekend to SMU 66-42.  TCU outgained SMU by 105 yards in the game but turned the ball over 4 times in the game.  That alone makes the contest “unusual”, but another event makes it “really rare”.  TCU head coach, Sonny Dykes, was ejected from the game for drawing two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties early in the second half.

The Horned Frogs returned the second half kickoff for a TD, but it was nullified by a holding call; Coach Dykes disagreed too vehemently and drew unsportsmanlike penalty #1.  After the next play – – the first offensive snap of the second half – – he continued his vociferous protest and earned his second flag and a quick trip to the locker room.  After the game, here is what Dykes had to say:

“Two penalties from two different officials. I understood why I got the first one, I thought I deserved it.  The second one, I really don’t know where it came from. The first one I deserved.”

TCU goes on the road this weekend to take on Kansas.

Here in Curmudgeon Central, I believe in the “equal time” concept.  Everyone who comments on college football pays a lot of positive attention to unbeaten teams; I also focus on the winless ones.  Here are 4 teams that have opened the 2024 season with 0-4 records and there are some interesting things to note about those teams:

  • UTEP and New Mexico are both 0-4.  These schools are close by Interstate 25 as it wends its way from the Mexican border up to Denver.  You could probably hit both campuses in about a 3-hour drive.  The fact that they are both winless might lead some to a hypothesis that there is something in the water in that part of the world that leads to football ineptitude.
  • New Mexico plays New Mexico St. this weekend; New Mexico St. is also right next to Interstate 25 between the UTEP and New Mexico campuses.  New Mexico St. has a win under its belt against a Division 1-AA opponent but nothing else is even close.  For the record, New Mexico is a 9.5-point favorite.
  • Kent State schedulers bit off a lot more than they could chew for 2024.  Three of the four opening losses have been to Pitt, Tennessee and Penn State; Kent State has no business playing those schools.  However, the team also lost to Division1-AA, St Francis (PA) along the way meaning that the team gets no pats on the back for taking on the big guys.  The cumulative score for Kent State so far in 2024 is:
      • Opponents 205  Kent State 41
  • Wyoming has had one close game.  Like Kent State it lost to a Division 1-AA team (Idaho) and was not close in the other three.  Unlike Kent State who lost to some top-shelf programs, Wyoming’s defeats have come at the hands of middling squads – – North Texas, BYU and Arizona State.

The expanded CFP assures at least one slot will go to a team outside the “Power 4” conferences.  Last week, James Madison beat UNC 70-50; it was 53-21 at halftime; the two teams combined to produce 1227 yards on offense in the game.  Should the Dukes run the table this year, the Selection Committee may well look at this domination of a major football program beneficently…

For the record, both Army and Navy have begun the season with 3-0 records; Air Force is 1-2 as of this morning.

Here are some comments on games from last week:

Wash St. 54  San Jose St. 52 (2OT):  Washington St. posted 627 yards on offense – – outgaining San Jose St. by 136 yards and the Cougars still needed two OT shots to take down the win.  The two teams combined to run 170 offensive plays in the contest.  Washington St. is off to a 4-0 start in 2024.

Florida 45  Mississippi St. 28:  The Gators evened their record at 2-2 with this first win over a Division 1-A team.  Two Florida QBs combined to complete 26 of 28 pass attempts in the game for 277 yards and 3 TDs while the Gators’ running game averaged over 6 yards per carry.  The Bulldogs’ defense is problematic to say the least and their starting QB had to leave the game in the fourth quarter with a shoulder injury that might keep him out for a while.  Mississippi St. has a tough road ahead!

Missouri 30  Vandy 27 (2OT):  Mizzou was ranked #7 in the country before this game; Vandy was not ranked anywhere close to that.  The Tigers outgained the Commodores by 124 yards and still needed 2 OTs to seal the deal.  The two kickers played a big role in the game.  Missouri missed two field goas in regulation time that allowed for the tie; then in OT Missouri made a field goal while the Vandy kicker missed from 31 yards to end the game.  Mizzou is 4-0 on the season; presumably this game will be a warning to the Tigers about overconfidence.

Tennessee 25  Oklahoma 15:  Both teams were undefeated and ranked in the Top 25 coming into the game; Tennessee was #6 and Oklahoma was #15.  The Vols’ defense held the Sooners to 222 yards on offense and only 36 yards rushing.

Florida St. 14  Cal 9:  This was the first win for the Seminoles and the first loss for the Golden Bears.  Cal outgained Florida State 410 yards to 284 yards and still lost the game.  The difference is quite simple; Florida St. scored 2 TDs and Cal scored 3 FGs.

Indiana 52  UNC-Charlotte 14:  The Hoosiers are 4-0 to start the season and they have been a scoring machine to date.  Indiana has scored 202 points in their 4 wins albeit against rather soft schedule.

Clemson 59  NC State 35:  This game was not this close.  Clemson called off the dogs and NC State scored 21 points in the fourth quarter after trailing 59-14 at the start of that quarter.

Temple 45  Utah St. 29:  This was the first win for the Owls.  Temple QB, Evan Simon, threw 4 TD passes in the game and was the Owls’ leading rusher too.

Penn St. 56  Kent St.  0:  Here is how big a mismatch this game was:

  • Penn St. Total Offense = 718 yards  Kent St. Total Offense = 67 yards
  • Penn St. First Downs = 40  Kent St. First Downs = 6
  • Penn St. Offensive Plays = 81  Kent St. Offensive Plays = 43

 

NCAA Games of Interest This Week:

 

(Fri Nite) Washington at Rutgers – 1 (43):  Rutgers is undefeated to date in 2024, and this is a Big-10 conference game.  Seriously …

UNC at Duke – 2.5 (56):  Big rivalry game here…

Florida St. at SMU – 6 (47):  Evidently, the oddsmakers were not impressed by the Seminoles first win last week.

Washington St. at Boise St. – 6.5 (65):  Given the Cougars undefeated record – – including a win over Washington – – the oddsmakers are paying a lot of respect to Boise St. with that spread…

Mississippi St. at Texas – 38.5 (61):  Texas is ranked #1 in the country; Mississippi St. is a rebuilding mess with a porous defense.  This should be ugly – – quickly.

South Alabama at LSU – 21 (64.5):  S. Alabama has a good offense; they are averaging 48.3 points per game.   S. Alabama has a minimal defense; they give up 25.8 points per game against middling opponents.  LSU is no stranger to the end zone.  I like this game to go OVER; put it in the Betting Bundle.

Louisville at Notre Dame – 7 (45):  Louisville is undefeated so far in 2024.

Illinois at Penn St. – 18 (47):  Illinois is undefeated so far in 2024.

Kentucky at Ole Miss – 15 (52):  Ole Miss has been blowing the doors off overmatched opponents so far this year and that may scare some folks off them.  I think their offense is for real and Kentucky – – while a step up from previous opponents – – is not going to stop them.  I like Ole Miss to win and cover at home; put that in the Betting Bundle.

Georgia – 1 at Alabama (50):  This is so obviously the College Game of the Week.  Georgia is ranked #2; Alabama is ranked #4 in the country.  This game is must see TV …

  • Fun Fact:  This is the first time since 2007 that Alabama has been a home underdog.  That was Nick Saban’s first year at Alabama and the favorite in the game was LSU.

New Mexico – 9.5 at New Mexico St. (55):  This is clearly the “game of the week” among bottom-feeders (see above).  New Mexico has only been close in one game – – against a Division 1-AA opponent losing by only 4 points.  Winless New Mexico is a road favorite because against Division 1-A schools, the Aggies have lost 3 games by a cumulative score of 109 – 35.  This game is “Avert Your Eyes TV”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

There are five unbeaten teams in the NFL to date:

  1. Bills:  They have been the most dominant team so far.
  2. Chiefs:  A win is a win – – but the Chiefs have been cutting it awfully close so far in 2024.
  3. Seahawks:  They are indeed 3-0 but their “strength of schedule” to date is unimpressive.  They beat the Broncos and a QB making his first start in the NFL by 6 points.  They beat a bad Pats team by 3 points.  They beat the Dolphins sans-Tua by 3 TDs.  This week they are on the road against the Lions and that should be a different level of opponent for them.
  4. Steelers:  Given the QB questions there, did you have them as one of the unbeatens at this point in the season?  I did not.
  5. Vikes:  Pay attention here; the Vikes are undefeated with wins over the Niners and the Texans included.  They are doing this with “retread” Sam Darnold as their QB and their defense is only giving up 10 points per game so far.

There are three winless teams in the NFL to date:

  1. Bengals:  Their three losses have been by a total of 12 points and their schedule is not an easy one ahead.  They do get the Panthers this week – – albeit on the road – – and a loss there would probably end playoff hopes for the team.
  2. Jags:  The team is a mess.  The defense does not get off the field and the offense sputters.  The Jags have lost the last 8 games where Trevor Lawrence has been the starting QB.
  3. Titans:  They seem to have a knack for turning the ball over at the worst possible time and/or in the worst possible way.  They host the Colts this weekend, but after that they have two road games against the Bills and then the Lions.  Hmmm …

Here are comments from last week’s games:

Chiefs 22 Falcons 17:  Isiah Pacheco is hurt, no problem, insert Carson Steele who rushed for 72 yards on 17 carries. Rashee Rice caught 12 passes for 110 yards. The Falcons had 13 snaps inside the Chiefs’ 30 on their last two drives of the game and got zero points for their efforts

Panthers 36  Raiders 22:  The Panthers had only converted two third downs in their first two games this season; they converted five here. The Panthers running game amassed a total of 148 yards in the first two games; they ran for 135 yards here. Andy Dalton put 36 points on the scoreboard after the Panthers totaled 13 points in their first two games.  Oh, and the Panthers’ defense recorded three sacks and held the Raiders to 55 yards rushing.  Conclusion:

  • Antonio Pierce and his staff still have plenty of work to do.

Eagles 15  Saints 12:  Saquan Barkley made up for his dropped pass that allowed the Falcons to rally and beat the Eagles two weeks ago.  Against the Saints, he ran for 147 yards and scored the winning touchdown plus a 2-point conversion, with a minute left in the game to give the Eagles the win.  The Eagles’ defense held what had been a hugely explosive Saints’ offense to only 219 yards in the game.

Steelers 20  Chargers 10:  Justin Herbert was questionable for the game with a “high ankle sprain”.  After a sack in the third quarter Herbert had to leave the game with the score tied at 10 apiece.  Playing the Steelers’ defense is difficult enough but doing it with a backup at QB is difficult-squared; the Chargers recorded only one first down after Herbert was rendered hors de combat.  The Steelers’ defense is only allowing 8.6 points per game so far.

Ravens 28  Cowboys 25:  The Ravens arrived winless and simply dominated play from start to finish here.  They ran the ball 45 times for 274 yards and three touchdowns.  Derrick Henry gained 151 of those rushing yards and scored twice.  The Cowboys closed the gap to 3 points with about 3 minutes left in the game, but the Ravens never lost control of the ball and knelt out the clock.  The Cowboys’ defense yielded 28 points here but that was an improvement since the defense had given up 72 points in the first two games.

Seahawks 24  Dolphins 3:  Tua Tagovailoa was out with a concussion and then, the Dolphins lost their backup QB, Skyler Thompson, in the game.  That left them with Tim Boyle under center.   Here is a stat courtesy of NFL.com:

“There are 32 teams in the NFL and the Dolphins are the only team that has not held the lead for a single second this season. The Dolphins won in Week 1, but that win came on a field goal that went through the uprights with the clock having expired.”

Rams 27  Niners 24:  The Niners have lost twice already this year, but you cannot hang this loss on Brock Purdy; he had a top-shelf game posting this stat line:

  • 22 of 30 for 292 yards and 3TDs with 0 INTs

Jauan Jennings filled in for an injured Deebo Samuel and did a Jerry Rice imitation catching 11 passes for 175 yards and 3 TDs.  The Niners also played without Christian McCaffrey whose injury woes took a mysterious turn when it was announced this week that he had gone to see a specialist in Germany.  The Niners led 21-7 halfway through the third quarter and 24-14 with 12 minutes left in the game.  The Rams got two field goals and a TD in the final 12 minutes to pull out the win despite playing without WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

Lions 20 Cards 13:  The Lions held the ball for 36:49 in this game running the ball 43 times for 187 yards.  In the second quarter with the Lions leading 13-7, the Lions ran the “hook-and-ladder play” and got a TD for their efforts.  The Lions held Kyler Murray to 45 yards on five carries and held the Cards to 1 third-down conversion in 9 tries.

Colts 21  Bears 16:  Jonathan Taylor was the Colts; hero here; he carried the ball 23 times for 110 yards and a TD.  That performance overcame another mediocre showing by Anthony Richardson at QB who was only 10 of 20 in the game with 2 INTs in the mix.  The Colts’ defense showed up here sacking Caleb Williams four times and getting 2 INTs of their own. For some reason, the Bears chose to throw the ball 52 times in this game.  One interesting play in the game saw the Bears with the ball at the Colts’ 1-yardline with fourth down.  The Bears went for the TD and running back DeAndre Swift somehow lost 12 yards on the carry.

Jets 24  Pats 3:  This game was more lopsided than the score. The Jets converted 10 of 15 third-down tries and held the ball for more than 40 minutes.  Aaron Rodgers completed 27 of 35 passes for 281 yards and no interceptions. The Jets also outgained New England 400 yards to 139 yards and held the Patriots to 11 first downs.

Broncos 26  Bucs 7:  This was a win for the Broncos’ defense which sacked Baker Mayfield seven times.  That was about the only interesting aspect of this game.

Packers 30  Titans 14:  Malik Willis whom the Titans gave up on returned to Tennessee in a “revenge game” and the Packers’ backup got his revenge.  Willis was 13 for 19 with no interceptions, 202 yards, and he also led the Packers in rushing with 73 yards on six carries, and a TD.   The Packers’ defense had eight sacks in the game.

Vikes 34  Texans 7:  Both teams entered the game undefeated.  The Vikes’ defense showed up in force here recording 5 sacks in the game and holding the Texans running game to 38 yards on 14 carries.  For the Vikes, Sam Darnold only threw for 181 yards, but he also connected for 4 TDs in the game.  Two turnovers by the Texans and the Vikes converting 6 of 13 third-down situations made this game a rout.

Giants 21  Browns 15:   The Browns’ defense gets a lot of praise; in this game, it was the Giants’ defense who dominated holding the Browns to only 217 yards of total offense.  Malik Nabors caught 8 passes for 78 yards and 2 TDs in the game.

 

Games This Week

 

Last night, the Cowboys beat the Giants 20-15.  This was a one-score game from start to finish; normally, that means it was an interesting/fun game to watch.  Not so here, this game was a slog from start to finish.  Two weeks ago, the Giants lost to the Commanders when the Commanders scored 21 points on 7 FGs; last night the Giants lost to the Cowboys and all 15 of the Giants’ points came on FGs.

Saints at Falcons – 3 (41):  This is a Division Game and both teams lost last week.  I think it will be low scoring so if I were to play the game – – but I won’t – – I would take the points.

Steelers – 1.5 at Colts (41):  I can see the Steelers focusing on stopping the Colts ground game and daring Anthony Richardson to beat them.  I can also see the Colts’ defense playing to make Justin Fields beat them.  If both defenses are successful, this game could wind up 13-9…  I trust Fields more than Richardson at this point in their careers so let me take the Steelers and lay the points; put it in the Betting Bundle.

Jags at Texans – 6 (45):  Both teams lost badly last week, and the Jags are winless for the season.

Vikes at Packers – 3 (44):  This is my runner-up for the Game of the Week.  These two teams are a combined 5-1 and both teams are doing it with defenses.

Bengals – 4 at Panthers (47):  Last week we had a “Malik Willis Revenge Game”, and he won it.  Call this the “Andy Dalton Revenge Game”???  The Bengals’ defense got pantsed last week by the Commanders; can the Panthers find similar success?

Rams at Bears – 3 (40.5):  Is it that the Bears’ do not want to run the football or is it that the Bears cannot run the football?  Asking a rookie QB to throw the ball 52 times in a game is more than unusual.

Broncos at Jets – 7.5 (39.5):  Yes, the Broncos won last week but this defense is better than last week’s opponent and Aaron Rodgers is a tad better than Baker Mayfield as an opposing QB.  I smell a blowout here but that hook on top of the TD spread warns me off.

Eagles – 2 at Bucs (43):  The Bucs were awful last week but the Eagles have injury problems on offense.  DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown and Lane Johnson all did not practice this week.

Commanders at Cards – 3.5 (50):  This game will be a shoot-out.  I like the game to go OVER; put it in the Betting Bundle.

Pats at Niners – 10.5 (41):  The Pats’ defense might keep this close against an injured Niners’ offense – – but the Pats’ offense is marginal at best.

Browns at Raiders – 1 (37):  Both teams lost badly at home last week; you have to wonder which team was more embarrassed during the film sessions earlier this week.  This is my runner up as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Chiefs – 7 at Chargers (40):  The key question here is:

  • Can Justin Herbert play the way Justin Herbert is capable of playing?

(Sun Nite) Bills at Ravens – 2 (46.5):  This is the Game of the Week.  The Bills have been dominant so far in 2024 posting a point differential of +64 in only 3 games.  The Ravens are 1-2 but they looked as if they had found their way last week in demolishing the Cowboys.   Looking forward to seeing this game…

(Mon Nite Early) Titans at Dolphins – 1 (36.5):  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Will Levis versus the Dolphins’ QB du jour.  If they have this one on the Manningcast, be sure to tune in there because Peyton will not be happy with the QB play here.

(Mon Nite Late) Seahawks at Lions – 3.5 (46.5):  The Lions need the game because the NFC North race will take shape as a result of the Vikes Packers game on Sunday meaning the Lions will need to keep pace.  The Seahawks are leading the NFC West now but as noted above, their undefeated record might need an asterisk.

So let me review the four picks in the Betting Bundle:

  • LSU/South Alabama OVER 64.5
  • Ole Miss – 15 over Kentucky
  • Commanders/Cards OVER 50
  • Steelers – 1.5 over Colts

And just for fun, here are two Money Line parlays:

  • Indiana @ minus-260
  • Nebraska @ minus-370
  • Ole Miss @ minus- 650
  • $100 to win 103.

And …

  • Bengals @ minus-210
  • Lions @ minus-180
  • $100 to win $130

Finally, let’s close with these words from Vince Lombardi:

“Practice does not make perfect. Only perfect practice makes perfect.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

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