Football Friday 12/28/23 – – On Thursday

William Shakespeare wrote:

“Better three hours too soon than a minute too late.”

That directive applies today because even though the calendar declares today as a Thursday, this will be an early edition of Football Friday. Had this edition not shown up early, it would have been a week late. So, I’ll just call this a Sort of Football Friday and begin in the normal way by reviewing last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

College = 0-0-0 => Season = 19-9-0
NFL = 1-2-0 => Season = 19-21-0
Parlays = 1-1 Profit = $42 => Season = 9-14 Loss = $88

College Football Commentary:

The Florida State/ACC showdown is coming. The Seminoles have filed a lawsuit against their own conference seeking to extricate themselves from that conference. There is no question that Florida State is the “big dog” in the ACC when it comes to football, only Clemson’s stature rivals Florida State’s. And now the “big dog” wants out…

If somehow there is no reconciliation here, this matter looks to me as if it will play out over a LONG period of time. Florida State filed its suit less than a week ago and already there is an ACC action seeking to have the conference select the venue of the trial proceedings. There are probably law firms from Virginia to Florida salivating over the idea of getting a piece of the available billable hours here.

The legal costs to both sides would seem to provide a reason for settlement here. Spending on legal representation is a “sunk cost”; there is little likelihood of ever recovering those funds. Settlement/reconciliation would be a “hefty cost”, but it can also be money spent in order for the two sides to “get on with their lives”.

The Seminoles want out; the ACC fears that losing its best football program will do severe damage to the conference itself. And yet, there must be some point at which Florida State becomes a sufficiently annoying thorn under the thumbnail that the conference begins to view the matter as a sufficient pain in the ass that it wants to end the conflict. The ACC “grant of rights” that seemingly binds the conference together runs through 2036. I cannot believe that Florida State will be a member of the ACC that far into the future. As I said earlier this week, I don’t know where they will wind up, and I don’t know when it will happen, but this is not a relationship that can be saved.

One of the minor bowl games – – the Las Vegas Bowl – – produced a result that could lead to some interesting college football news. Northwestern beat Utah 14-7 in that game meaning that Northwestern finished the season 8-5. That may not sound like much but recall that at the beginning of August, Northwestern fired its long-term head coach, Pat Fitzgerald, over a hazing scandal. The school needed a head coach, and it would have been unseemly to name one of the assistants as the head coach if the assistant had been on the football staff while the alleged hazing was going on. So, Northwestern handed what looked like a sack of wet goat sh*t to “the new guy” – David Braun – who had just taken a job at Northwestern having come from the job of defensive coordinator at Division 1-AA North Dakota St.

To say that Northwestern qualifying for a bowl bid – let alone beating a decent Utah team in a bowl game – was not a prevalent thought in suburban Chicago back in August. But that is what happened, and David Braun now has some thinking to do. He is probably going to lose more than a couple of his assistants when the euphoria of the season wears off and the memories of the hazing allegations return to the headlines. What David Braun needs to think about is simple:

Should he stay at Northwestern – where he will surely get a decent offer as their head football coach – or should he use this performance as a way to get another job in a place where there ought to be fewer off-field distractions and much less acrimony surrounding the program?

Were I in his position, I would thank the Northwestern Board of Trustees for the confidence they have shown in me but I would choose to move on to calmer waters that may also be greener pastures. But that’s just me…

College Football Games This Week:

The better bowl games tend to cluster around New Year’s Day and this year is no exception. The reason I do not make selections for most bowl games is because there are far too many intangible factors to weigh not the least of which is that lots of the best players on various teams over the course of the season will voluntarily sit out a minor bowl game looking to avoid injury prior to the NFL Draft in April. There are some matchups that might be interesting in terms of viewing this week and of course there will be the semi-finals of the CFP on Monday night.

(Fri Afternoon) Notre Dame – 6.5 vs. Oregon St (41.5): There has been a lot of line movement for this game. The spread opened with Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite and the Total Line opened at 47.5 points. Both teams finished the year in the Top 20 in whatever poll you favor. Neither team will have their starting quarterback nor their #1 running back for the game. Clearly, that is sufficient reason not to make a pick here, but this is a game worth watching even if it is the “Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl”.

(Fri Nite) Missouri vs Ohio St. – 3 (49): The Buckeyes’ starting QB this year, Kyle McCord, entered the transfer portal when the season closed and so Ohio St will be under the direction of sophomore, Devin Brown for the game. Brown appeared in 5 games – briefly – in 2023 and posted these stats:

12 of 22 for 197 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT

The best storyline for the game is probably Mizzou RB, Cody Schrager who started his career at Missouri as a walk-on and this year was named to the All SEC Team as the running back.

(Sat Noon) Ole Miss vs Penn St. – 5 (48): Both teams come to the game with 10-2 records; that alone makes the game interesting. However, there is an even more interesting aspect to this game. Land Kiffin has Ole Miss playing a fast and loose offensive system that wins games by outscoring opponents. The Rebels rank 15^th in the country in Total Offense per game (455.4 yards per game) and 19^th in the country in Scoring Offense (34.8 points per game). Penn St. relies on its defense; the Nittany Lions rank 1^st in the nation in Total Defense allowing only 223.3 yards per game and rank 3^rd in the nation in Scoring Defense allowing only 11.4 points per game.

(Mon Afternoon) Liberty vs Oregon – 17 (67): Last year, Tulane was the so-called Group of Five team to get a New Year’s Day bowl bid and Tulane went and won the game. Can Liberty maintain that “tradition”?

(Mon Evening) Alabama vs Michigan – 2.5 (44.5): After two years of embarrassing losses in the CFP, Michigan has the motivation, the depth, the talent and the experience to win it all this year. Alabama almost always over the past 15 years has had all that stuff and has indeed “won it all” in the past. Michigan has played with a lead for almost the entirety of the 2023 season so it might be interesting to see what the Wolverines might do should Alabama get a lead in the game.

(Mon Nite) Texas – 4.5 vs Washington (64.5): I think Texas is the better team here because I think the Washington pass defense is vulnerable. The Huskies rank 123^rd in the country in passing defense, allowing 263.2 yards per game. Conversely, Washington leads the nation in passing offense (343.8 yards per game), but the Texas pass defense is a bit stingier allowing 241 yards per game. I like Washington QB, Michael Penix, Jr. to keep this game close to the end; I’ll take Washington plus the points here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

NFL Commentary:

I ran across an interesting stat this week. The New England Patriots are poised to set an NFL record this year. So far in 2023, the Pats have not had a 100-yard rusher in a game, nor have they had a 100-yard receiver in a game. No team has ever completed a 16-game or a 17-game season without at least one such performance:

The Colts had that happen to them in 1982 – – but that was a “strike season” and consisted of only 9 games.
The ‘Skins had that happen to them in 1977 – – but was back in the days when the NFL regular season was only 14 games.

The Patriots have now played 15 games in the 2023 regular season without a 100-yard performance by a runner or a pass catcher. What Snuffy Smith was wont to say in the comic strips applies now to the Pats:

“Time’s a-wasting…”

Last week, I watched the Steelers/Bengals game and heard Noah Eagle and Todd Blackledge do that game. Since there were no other games on at the time and since I had no social distractions, I watched the whole thing without “interference”. That was the first time I heard that tandem on the mic and I liked what I heard.

Noah Eagle is the son of Ian Eagle. I have always liked Ian Eagle doing play-by-play in football and/or in basketball. The adage that the apple does not fall far from the tree certainly applies here; Noah Eagle is going to be a very good play-by-play guy for many years to come; he is only 26 years old.
I have heard Todd Blackledge in the past – – but not recently as I recall. He has never managed to find his way to the head of the class as a color analyst either at CBS or at ESPN. That is a shame because he presents the game to viewers calmly and rationally without histrionics or needless chatter.
Noah Eagle and Todd Blackledge make for an excellent broadcast pairing.

Let me pose a rhetorical question here. Which “old fossil” – – in NFL terms that means anyone who has been around the league for about 10 years – – is playing better:

Mike Evans: In his 10^th year in the NFL, he has started every game with the Bucs and caught 73 passes for 1163 yards and a league-leading 13 TDs.
Joe Flacco: He was called back into the league off his man-cave couch after Thanksgiving for a 16^th season in the NFL when the Browns desperately needed a QB. He has started 4 games; the Browns are 3-1 in those games. Flacco has averaged 326.8 yards per game passing with 10 TDs and 7 INTs.

You make the call …

Let me move on to a review of last week’s games:

Rams 30 Saints 22: The Saints made a game of it in the fourth quarter scoring 15 of their 22 points then, but the Rams dominated the game. The Saints’ running game was a no-show; 35 yards on 16 carries. Also, the Saints went for it 3 times on fourth down and failed to convert any of those attempts. The Rams’ total offense in the game was 458 yards. Rams are now well positioned for a playoff run with an interesting schedule in the next two weeks:

At Giants – – Rams should be a touchdown favorite here
At Niners – – will the Niners have anything to play for?

Steelers 34 Bengals 11: The Steelers’ offense seemed to regain consciousness here gaining 397 yards in the game. Mason Rudolph threw for 290 yards and 2 TDs. Jake Browning accumulated yardage but also threw 3 INTs. George Pickens had a huge day catching 4 passes for 195 yards and 2 TDs. The result of this game is that both teams now have their playoff hopes on life support. Neither is mathematically eliminated; neither is anywhere near likely to get in.

Raiders 20 Chiefs 14: This game has one of the oddest stat sheets ever. The Raiders won the game despite having only 48 yards passing in the game and being outgained by more than 100 yards in the game and not scoring an offensive TD in the game. The Raiders did not even attempt a pass in the second half of the game. The Chiefs had the ball for more than 34 minutes. The turning point was a span of 7 seconds late in the second quarter. First, the Chiefs bungled a direct snap from center to running back Isaiah Pacheco which resulted in a Scoop and Score TD for the Raiders. On the first offensive play after the kickoff, Patrick Mahomes threw a Pick Six. The Raiders’ defense was able to parlay those scores into a victory. The Raiders could win the AFC West if they win out and the Chiefs lose out.

Bills 24 Chargers 22: Recall that I said the Chargers could experience the football version of Wall Street’s “dead cat bounce”. The Chargers dominated time of possession and won the turnover battle 3-0. Still, that was not enough for a win. The Bills will make the playoffs if they win out; here is the remaining schedule for the Bills:

Vs. Pats – – should be a solid favorite here
At Dolphins – – Maybe the winner is NFC East champion as well as a playoff participant?

Eagles 33 Giants 25: The Eagles outgained the Giants 465 yards to 292 yards; that difference usually produces an outcome that is more lopsided than a “one-score game”. Let me give you a flavor of the imbalance on the stat sheet:

Eagles’ Time of Possession = 34:38 Giants’ Time of Possession = 25:22
Eagles’ First Downs = 28 Giants’ First Downs = 14
Eagles’ Offensive plays = 74 Giants Offensive plays = 59

The Eagles led 20-3 at halftime but a Giant’s TD in the third quarter followed by a Pick Six thrown by Jalen Hurts closed the gap to 20-18. The fourth quarter was a nail-biter despite the statistical imbalance. The 2023 Eagles are the masters of “winning ugly”. As of this morning their record is 11-4 but their point differential for the season is only +26. This win coupled with the Cowboys’ loss to the Dolphins puts the Eagles in first place in the NFC East.

Ravens 33 Niners 19: The Ravens dominated this game on offense and on defense despite the stat sheet saying that the Niners outgained the Ravens by 87 yards. Lamar Jackson accounted for 297 yards from scrimmage (passing + running) and 2 TDs. The Ravens’ defense intercepted 5 passes in the game.

Browns 36 Texans 22: The Browns and the Cowboys have the same record; there is lots of talk about the Cowboys being a Super Bowl participant; there is little to no talk about the Browns being part of that game. Amari Cooper was the dominant player in this game:

11 receptions for 265 yards and 2 TDs

The Browns led 36-7 with 12 minutes left in the game. The Texans got two meaningless TDs to make the game appear closer than it was. The Texans remain tied with the Jags and the Colts in the AFC South race despite this loss because the Jags and Colts both lost last weekend too.

Lions 30 Vikes 24: The Lions have won the NFC North for the first time since 1993. The Vikes were driving for a potential game-winning TD in the final minute of the game, but the Lions’ defense intercepted a Nick Mullens pass at the Lions’ 5 yardline to seal the deal for the Lions. That was Mullens’ 4^th INT for the day. Mullens did throw for 411 yards in the game which is what kept the game close because the Vikes’ total rushing offense for the day was 17 yards on only 11 rushing attempts.

Packers 33 Panthers 30: This game was as even on the stat sheet as it was on the scoreboard. The Packers had the ball late in the 4^th quarter and were able to get into field goal range and converted that play to provide the margin of victory with 19 seconds left on the clock. The Packers can still make the playoffs in the NFC with this win.

Falcons 29 Colts 10: Taylor Heinicke got the start at QB for the Falcons and produced 406 yards on offense. Gardner Minshew had one of his “lesser performances” leading the Colts to only 262 yards on offense. The Falcons are only one game behind the Bucs in the NFC South as of this morning.

Seahawks 20 Titans 17: Here is a taste of how even this game was:

Seahawks’ First Downs = 21 Titans’ First Downs = 23
Seahawks’ 3^rd down conversions = 7 of 13 Titans’ 3^rd down conversions = 6 of 12
Seahawks Total Offense = 273 yards Titans’ Total Offense = 287 yards
Seahawks’ Avg Gain per play = 4.6 yards Titans’ Avg Gain per play = 4.5 yards

The Titans took a 17-13 lead with 3 minutes to play in the game, but the Seahawks were able to get the game winning TD from Geno Smith with a minute left to play.

Jets 30 Commanders 28: It was Jacoby Brisset to the rescue for the Commanders again this week. The Commanders trailed 27-7 at halftime; Brisset entered the game midway in the 3^rd quarter and led the team to three TDs to take the lead at 28-27 with about 5 minutes to play. The Jets were able to maneuver themselves into field goal range to kick a game-winning 54-yard field goal with 10 seconds left. The Jets had the ball for more than 36 minutes in the game and outgained the Commanders by 136 yards and still needed last second heroics to win this game. Wow …!

Bucs 30 Jags 12: Don’t look now but the Bucs have won 4 games in a row and the Jags have lost 4 games in a row. If you saw that coming sometime before Thanksgiving, raise your hand. If the season ended today, both teams would be playoff-bound. The Bucs led this game 30-0 in the third quarter; the game was a rout.

Bears 27 Cards 16: The Bears dominated the game leading 21-0 in the second quarter and 24-10 in the 4^th quarter. The Bears accumulated 420 yards on offense; Justin Fields threw for 170 yards and ran for another 97 yards in the game. The Bears’ record this morning is 6-9 and they are not yet mathematically eliminated from the NFC playoffs, but I have not been able to figure out what their road to a playoff slot would look like. Interestingly, with that 6-9 record, the Bears’ point differential for the season is only minus-31 points. As a reference, the Jets are also 6-9 this year and the Jets point differential is minus-84 points.

Dolphins 22 Cowboys 20: The Dolphins scored 1 TD in this game and kicked 5 field goals – – the last one as time expired – – for a narrow win at home. The Cowboys’ road woes continued here; they are 7-0 at home and only 3-5 on the road. The Dolphins’ win keeps them atop the NFC East for this week. However, if the Dolphins were to lose this weekend on the road against the Ravens and if the Bills win this weekend over the Pats in Buffalo, that will set up the Bills and Dolphins in Week 18 where the winner is the AFC East champion, and the loser is a wildcard team. Should it come down to this, that Week 18 matchup will be in Miami where the Dolphins are 7-1 this year.

Pats 26 Broncos 23: The Pats led 23-7 to start the 4^th quarter but the Broncos rallied to tie the game 23-23 with about 3 minutes left to play in the game. The Pats managed to get to a point where they had a 56-yard field goal try to win the game with 7 seconds left in the game. That kick was good, and the Pats won only their 4^th game of the year. The Broncos are not eliminated from the AFC playoffs as a result of this loss, but their road to the playoffs is a winding and treacherous one to be sure.

NFL Games this Week:

Four NFC teams have guaranteed themselves a slot in the playoffs. The Eagles and Cowboys will both participate but it is not yet determined which will be the NFC East champion and which will be a wildcard team. As of this morning, the Eagles hold a 1-game lead over the Cowboys. The Lions and the Niners are both in the playoffs as winners of their respective divisions.

Only two of the AFC playoff positions are filled as of now. The Ravens are in even though they have not clinched the AFC North title and the Dolphins are also in under the same circumstances.

An announcement came yesterday that the Broncos would bench Russell Wilson for the last two games of the season and will start Jarrett Stidham in those games. The justification for this is to “preserve their financial flexibility in the coming offseason.” Remember, the Broncos are not eliminated from this year’s playoffs. Here is the explanation from a report at NFL.com:

“One key reason behind the switch is financial … Wilson has a $37 million injury guarantee for 2025 that becomes fully guaranteed in March. Sitting the QB the final two weeks to ensure he doesn’t suffer a catastrophic injury provides the Broncos financial flexibility if Sean Payton and Co. decide to move on from the 35-year-old quarterback in 2024. It’s not a done deal, but the late-season benching is a strong indicator Denver will end the Wilson ride after two seasons.

“Wilson is due $39 million fully guaranteed in 2024.”

There is no Monday Night Football this week; the NFL games are on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday.

(Thurs Nite) Jets at Browns – 7.5 (34.5): I guess the Jets will stick with Trevor Siemian as their QB this week after the Jets scored 30 points last week. Problem is simple:

Last week, the Jets played the Commanders with the worst defense in the NFL this year.
This week the Jets play the Browns whose defense is among the best in the NFL this year.

There is no question who the QB for the Browns will be here; that would be Joe Flacco. I suspect that he will find it difficult to torch the Jets’ defense the way he has some of the Browns’ recent opponents, but the Browns will win the game and secure a playoff spot in the process.

(Sat Nite) Lions at Cowboys – 6 (54): This is the Game of the Week matching two teams who will be in the NFC playoffs and who bring a combined record of 21-9 to the kickoff. In terms of the intangibles, this game should go to the Cowboys. The Lions clinched their division for the first time in 30 years last week; a small letdown is to be expected notwithstanding the fire in Coach Dan Campbell’s belly. The game is in Dallas where the Cowboys are undefeated in 2023. The Cowboys need this win if they still harbor hope for an NFC East title and/or an overall #1 seed in the NFC playoffs. Now for the football part of the equation, the Lions’ pass defense is a weak spot. Last week, Nick Mullens threw for 400+ yards against the Lions (see above); I don’t see the Lions holding Dak Prescott and company to a meager offensive showing. The Total Line here is a bit higher than I would expect but I will avoid an UNDER selection here; however, I do like the Cowboys to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Dolphins at Ravens – 3.5 (47): I thought about this game as the Game of the Week. This could be a letdown game for the Ravens after they dismantled the Niners last week. This game could be difficult for the Dolphins in that it is the second game of a very tough 3-game sequence in their schedule – – Cowboys last week, Ravens this week, Bills next week. There is also a “weather trend” at work here.

Since 2017, the Dolphins are 1-17 in games where the temperature at kickoff is 45 degrees or below.
The weather forecast has the high temperature on Sunday in Baltimore at 45 degrees.

Pats at Bills – 12 (40.5): The Bills need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive; the Pats are playing out the string. I do not like the fact that the Bills needed to rally to beat a bad Chargers team last week, but they should have their act together at home here and win the game. But there is no way I would play this at a double-digit spread.

Falcons at Bears – 3 (38): This is my Dog-Breath Game of the Week. CBS Sports gives the Falcons a 4.9% chance of making the playoffs; CBS Sports gives the Bears a “less than 1.0% chance of making the playoffs. That is enough for me.

Titans at Texans – 4.5 (43): The Texans beat the Titans a couple of weeks ago in a close game. Will CJ Stoud be able to play and if so, will he be able to play to the level he established earlier this year? Will Levis may or may not be back for the Titans; that is another issue to consider. The Texans need a win a lot more than do the Titans who are mathematically eliminated from the AFC playoffs.

Raiders at Colts – 3.5 (44): The Raiders (7-8) need this win to keep their longshot odds to make the playoffs alive. Similarly, the Colts (8-8) need to win to assure themselves a shot at the division title next week. The Raiders’ defense dominated the Chiefs last week (see above); was that performance based on emotion or has the defense figured out how to play better? At the same time, the Raiders’ OL stepped up significantly in that game. The OL has been a weak point all season long. This is the second straight road game for the Raiders, but I am counting on that defensive front to make life miserable for Gardner Minshew here; I’ll take the Raiders plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Panthers at Jags – 6.5 (38): Trevor Lawrence hurt his shoulder last week – – adding to his concussion and ankle injuries. For insurance, the Jags signed Matt Barkley in case Lawrence cannot go and CJ Beathard gets hurt. Color me unimpressed with that roster move. The Jags need to break a 4-game losing streak; for a team with such a need, the best scheduling twist available is to draw the Panthers…

Rams – 4.5 at Giants (43.5): The Rams are playing very well and have a playoff slot in their crosshairs. The Giants’ defense has come around, but the Giants’ offense is a hot mess at best. It is a long trip and a body-clock game for the Rams; that is why I am not making a selection here.

Cards at Eagles – 11 (48): I toyed with this as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. The Eagles are in the playoffs no matter what; the Cards have been eliminated for a couple of weeks now. Last week, I said the Eagles should not be 13.5-point favorites over a USFL team; they have the talent to beat the Cards by several TDs, but they have had that sort of a talent advantage in several games earlier this year and not delivered. Cards’ coach, Jonathan Gannon, returns to the Linc to play his team from last year. I am tempted to take the OVER here – – but will not.

Saints at Bucs – 2.5 (42.5): Baker Mayfield’s contract is one-year and $4M. He has earned that money several times over already. His contract calls for a $1M bonus if the Bucs win their division – – and beating the Saints here will assure the Bucs that title. Motivation anyone …?

Niners – 13.5 at Commandeers (48): Kyle Shanahan spent some less-than-fully-pleasant time at FedEx Field as the offensive coordinator of the ‘Skins. Chase Young was on the Commanders’ roster until he was traded away at the end of October. They will both be motivated to do well on Sunday. The Commanders stink; they may or may not be better than the Panthers at this point of the season. Even if they start Jacoby Brisset to experience his magic for the entire game, I don’t think it will matter. I think there will be scoring in the game so give me the OVER here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Steelers at Seahawks – 3.5 (42): I really think that the key question for this game is:

Can Mason Rudolph play the way he did last week again this week?

If he does, the Steelers will win the game outright. If not, the Steelers will lose, be out of the playoffs, and will face pressure to win their final game next week to avoid the first Steelers’ losing season since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007.

Bengals at Chiefs – 7 (44): Last week when the Eagles were 13.5-point favorites over the Giants, I said I would not make the Eagles that big a favorite over a USFL team. Well, the Chiefs inspire about that same level of confidence this week. The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 6 games and instead of improving as the season progressed, the Chiefs’ performances have stagnated. The Bengals are not nearly the powerhouse many folks expected this year, but the Bengals are not coming apart at the seams. Back in August, this looked like a sure-fire contender for Game of the Week. Hah!

Chargers at Broncos – 3 (37.5): The spread opened at 6 points and was steady there until yesterday’s announcement about the benching of Russell Wilson for the rest of the season. So, the QB matchup this week will be Easton Stick vs. Jarrett Stidham. If that inspires you to wager real money on this game, you probably need an intervention.

(Sun Nite) Packers at Vikes – 2 (46): The loser of this game can make Caribbean cruise reservations for January. The Vikes get lots of yardage with Nick Mullens at QB but seem to flame-out in the Red Zone. They need to find a cure for that – – quickly.

So, let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

Washington +4.5 against Texas
Cowboys – 6 over Lions
Raiders +3.5 against Colts
Niners/Commanders OVER 48

Here are two Money Line Parlays just to add to the fun:

Bills @ minus-700
Raiders @ +165 $100 wager to win $203.

And …

Cowboys @ minus-260
Eagles @ minus-500
Niners @ minus-525 $100 wager to win $98.

Finally, some words of wisdom from former Tennessee coach, Bowden Wyatt:

“My advice to defensive players: Take the shortest route to the ball and arrive in a bad humor.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

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