The rumors from the last week or so about a straight-up trade of Russell Westbrook for John Wall almost came true yesterday. I say almost, because the Wizards also threw in a future protected draft pick in the deal. Lots of people seem to think that this trade is transformative; I read one report that said this is the first time in NBA history that an overall #1 pick in the NBA draft had been traded for a former NBA MVP. I have not bothered to try to verify that because I do not think it would be worth the effort to do so. My assessment of the trade is that two very good and very exciting to watch players were exchanged and nothing much else has changed. Moreover, my assessment here assumes – – yes, I know the danger there – – that John Wall recovers completely from the Achilles tendon injury that has kept him out of action for more than a year. Let me explain:
- John Wall is a player whose game is built around his speed and his ability to get to the basket. The fact is that Wall is not a great shooter; he is, however, a volume shooter. In four of his seasons, Wall has been in the Top 20 in the NBA in field goal attempts; in five of his seasons, he has been in the Top 20 in the NBA in field goals missed.
- Russell Westbrook is virtually the same player. In nine of his seasons in the NBA, Westbrook has been in the Top 20 in field goal attempts; in fact, in three of those seasons, he was 1st in the NBA in shots attempted. In eleven of his NBA seasons, Westbrook has led the league in field goals missed and he led the league in that category 4 times.
By team metrics, the Wizards will appear to have been the winner of the trade because the Rockets appear to be in a tear-down/rebuild mode while the Wizards appear to have their eye on making the playoffs for the next couple of years and hoping to get lucky with a draft pick or with a free agent who has his heart set on playing in DC.
If the Rockets also trade away James Harden – as is rumored – and are left with John Wall, Boogie Cousins and PJ Tucker as the top players, the Rockets are not going to be serious playoff contenders. On the other hand, Russell Westbrook paired with Bradley Beal should provide the Wizards with sufficient offense to make the playoffs – – but not much more than that.
In the long run, both the Rockets’ and the Wizards’ future success in the NBA will depend on what the teams do outside of this trade. That is why I do not think the trade is “transformative” and why I do not think that it will be worth the time and effort to analyze these two players and their teams in microscopic detail over the next year or three.
Sticking with the NBA, I think that LaMelo Ball was fortunate not to have been taken with the overall #1 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. [In case you missed it, he went to the Hornets with the #3 pick.] Any Top 5 pick in the Draft draws scrutiny; the overall #1 pick gets an examination that would reveal if he chewed his fingernails. La Melo Ball will get heightened scrutiny over and above all of that because of the hype his father crated for his older brother Lonzo. [You may recall that Lonzo Ball was going to make Laker fans forget about Magic Johnson as a Lakers’ point guard.] To be the overall #1 pick and to be the second Ball brother to come to the NBA would have been an unfair burden to put on someone who just turned 19 years old.
Bob Molinaro had this item in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot recently:
“The NBA’s announcement that it wants fans in arenas when the season begins in late December represents an absurd turnabout for a league that shut down in March when COVID-19 cases across the country were less than 400. Now, with daily cases of 120,000 or more and hospitals and morgues reaching crisis levels, the league thinks it’s just fine to open up again because the owners are missing their money. Precautions involving fan testing and spaced out seating arrangements are not nearly good enough the way things are trending. I’d be surprised, too, if at least some local governments don’t step in to squash the plan.”
That assessment is spot-on. Given that the circumstances of the pandemic in early December 2020 are such that more than a few jurisdictions have banned attendance at outdoor sporting events such as football games, it is almost ghoulish to think about having fans attend indoor sporting events. I understand the owners’ economic motivation here and I sympathize with their current plight. At the same time, one of the epidemiological models I saw recently said that if the country were to relax its efforts to contain the virus – – open up bars and restaurants and workplaces without any restrictions at all – – the national death toll could be as high as 650,000 people by March 1st, 2021. That is a prediction from a model; it is imperfect to be sure; nevertheless, that projection ought to be sobering and it ought to convince rational adults that some forms of sacrifice are worth making. I hope the NBA owners and players take heed…
Maybe the NBA will get a message directly from the coronavirus. The NBA was spectacularly successful with its “Orlando Bubble” environment. They set up a “clean” population and maintained it and monitored it for several months last summer so that they could finish their season and execute their playoffs without having an outbreak. Basically, they took 22 of their teams, cleansed them and their staffs of the virus and played basketball games – lots of them. Then players, coaches and staff went home.
As the NBA gets set to open training camp so it can start its 2021 season on December 22nd, there have been 48 positive tests for coronavirus among 550 players tested. That is a “positivity rate” of just under 9 %; that is not nearly the worst infection rate I have read about, but it is a cautionary tale. Lots of “clean teams” exited the “Orlando Bubble” but the virus managed to render about 9% of the league “contaminated”.
In the past week or so, announcements came that Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum each signed maximum contract deals of 5 years and $190M. Just so there is no misunderstanding, both Mitchell and Tatum are excellent players, and their teams made the right move to lock them up for the next 5 years. At the same time, it is worth noting that both Mitchell and Tatum are fortunate to have been born when they were:
- Both players will take down $190M over the next 5 years.
- Michael Jordan earned $93M over his career in the NBA – – assuming that I have added correctly.
Finally, Dwight Perry had this NBA-related item in the Seattle Times recently:
“Cavaliers guard Kevin Porter Jr. was arrested on a gun charge in Ohio after he crashed his car and investigating officers discovered a loaded firearm inside.
“Apparently he was on his way to the morning shoot-around.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………