Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend of 10/11/15

Last week was mythically profitable; the record for the Mythical Picks was 10-6-0 bringing the season record to 35-29-1. The Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip games did not fare nearly as well seemingly regressing to the mean. The coin’s record was 0-2-0 bringing the season total for the coin to 4-3-0.

The “Best Picks” last week were:

    1. Taking the Giants and getting 5.5 points; the Giants won the game straight up.

    2. Taking the Rams plus 7 points; the Rams won the game straight up.

The “Worst Pick” last week was taking Jax/Indy OVER 47 and watching the game stumble into overtime with the score in the 20s.

Despite last week’s mythical profitability, no one should consider using any information here as the basis for making a real wager involving real money on a real NFL game this weekend. Here is how dumb you would have to be to do such a thing:

    You think frostbite is what happens if you cross Count Dracula with Frosty the Snowman.

General Comments:

The “Worst Pick” from above – along with one other pick from last week – demonstrate the reason why it usually pays to wait until much closer to game time to make a wager than is possible here. I made those picks late Wednesday night last week for games that would not happen until Sunday. Consider:

    I took Jax/Indy to go OVER 47 because the coin told me to do that. At the time, I thought Andrew Luck would play but it became apparent that he would not later in the week. Had I known that, I would not have needed to rely on the coin; I would have taken UNDER simply because I would have thought OVER was not likely.

    I also took Washington/Philly to stay UNDER 46.5. I took that because the weather forecast was monsoon-like and there was even talk of postponing the game. On a sloppy field, I thought the UNDER was a good idea. Well, the rain barely materialized and the game still stayed UNDER – because of the ineptitude of the Eagles’ offense for most of the game.

So I was “lucky” in guessing correctly in mid-week on half of those two Mythical Picks last week. However, had I actually bet those two games with those results, my “lucky” status would not have been nearly so “lucky”. The books would have had me for the vig…

Since I mentioned the Eagles/Skins game just above, it was the game televised in the early time slot where I was last weekend. What an awful game! For the first half, the Eagles could not get out of their own way and the Skins could not go three plays without committing a penalty. For a brief moment in the second half, the Eagles’ offense came to life and they took a 4-point lead into the final two minutes – whereupon they gave up a 90-yard drive for a TD leading to a 3 point loss. DeMarco Murray had exactly one good run in the game; this is a guy the Eagles signed for 5 years and $40M with $21M guaranteed. DeMarco Murray is still a good back; what his season with the Eagles so far shows is that a good running back is as much a product of the OL in front of him as anything else. The Eagles’ OL stinks.

One other offseason move by the Eagles is not working out very well either. They signed Byron Maxwell as a free agent to an even bigger contract than Murray. Maxwell cost the team 6 years at $63M with $25M guaranteed. What it looks like to me is that offensive coordinators on other teams have singled Maxwell out as the guy they want to go after as a foundation piece to their game plans. And it is working out for those offensive coordinators…

With regard to the Jags/Colts game, the Jags’ kicker missed 2 field goal attempts in OT that would have won the game. Yes, they were long tries (48 yards and 53 yards); nevertheless…

The Chargers beat the Browns by a field goal late in the game. The Chargers’ kicker had botched the try but the Browns – in what seems to be typical Browns’ fashion – were offsides on the kick. That gave the Chargers one more try which was good. In high school science classes, you learn about “Brownian motion”; that kind of game result and the incidents leading up to it ought to be labeled “Brownian ineptitude”.

In Chicago last week, the Raiders got a late field goal to take the lead in the game. Then the Bears’ offense came to life – led by Chicago pariah, Jay Cutler – and they drove the field to get their own field goal leading to the first win of the year. The Raiders saw their 2-game win streak go the way of all flesh in Chicago…

Not only did the Dolphins lose to the Jets in London last week, they lost their coach too. Dan Campbell will be the interim coach of the Dolphins for the rest of the season; if it is true that teams reflect the demeanor of their coach – I do not believe that but some say it is so – then perhaps it was Joe Philbin’s fault that the team looked so listless in that loss. The Dolphins were going through the motions and not much more. Fundamentally, the Jets dominated both lines of scrimmage and the game was a fundamental ass-kicking.

As badly as the two free-agent signings mentioned above are working out for the Eagles, they are stirring examples of unmitigated success compared to the signing of Ndamukong Suh for 6 years at $114M with $60M guaranteed. Somewhere in his mansion on the Potomac River, Danny Boy Snyder is thinking that another couple of months like the last month and people will cease to remember his signing of Fat Albert Haynesworth for $100M with $40M guaranteed…

The Rams beat the Cardinals last week. In 4 games this year, the Rams have beaten the Seahawks and the Cardinals, they have lost to the Skins and they lost to the Steelers by scoring only 6 points. If you can make sense of that, get back to me…

The Falcons are on a roll; they routed the Texans last week. In the game, the Falcons recovered 3 fumbles and returned 2 of them for TDs.

The Bengals are also on a roll; they beat the Chiefs by 2 TDs last week in an unusual game. The score was Bengals 35 and Chiefs 21. However, the Chiefs’’ 21 points came on 7 field goals and not 3 TDs. The Chiefs had 461 yards of offense and scored on 7 possessions but never got into the end zone. That does not happen often…

The Vikings lost a close game to the Broncos last week. In that game, Adrian Peterson carried the ball 15 times and Teddy Bridgewater threw the ball 41 times. That is not a good idea on any level and it is a particularly strange mix of plays given that Bridgewater was sacked 7 times. After you figure out what is going on with the Rams and get back to me on that one, try to figure out what was going on in this game…

The Packers beat the Niners 13-3. Colin Kaepernick was sacked 6 times in the game and the Niners are only averaging 12 points per game this year. The next lowest scoring team (Jags) averages 15.5 points per game.

I mentioned above 3 free agent signings that are not working out all that well for the teams that acquired said free agents. Well, the Packers had a free agent signing that is working out beautifully; they signed James Jones for 1 year and $850K with none of it guaranteed. Jones is averaging more than 18 yards per catch and 1 TD per game this year. Not bad for a guy not making all that much more than a sixth round pick who is on special teams…

The Lions were hosed by an incompetent call made by an official in perfect position to make the correct call. The NFL official explanation is that the official saw the play but did not think that the ball was batted out of the end zone intentionally. If that is the case:

    That official and Stevie Wonder are the only people on Planet Earth who came to the same conclusion.

The Games:

There are 4 teams with Bye Weeks this time around:

    The Dolphins try to rid themselves of jet lag and the memories of a beat-down by the Jets in London last week.

    The Jets also get a week off.

    The Panthers will remain undefeated this weekend.

    The Vikings are 0-2 on the road and 2-0 at home; this week they will not change either of those records.

(Thurs Nite) Indy at Houston – 3 (43): The line here would seem to indicate that Andrew Luck will either not play or will play in some sort of diminished state of health. It has been a while since the Colts lost a game in the division so seeing the Texans – a 1-3 team being outscored by 8 points per game this year – as a favorite of any kind is a surprise. The Colts’ defense held the Jags’ offense down last week; the Texans’ offense is slightly better than the Jags’ offense so the Colts’ margin for error seems to be small. Make this a venue call; I’ll take the Texans and lay the points.

Jax at Tampa – 2.5 (42): Without question, this is the Dog Breath Game of the Week – and the dog has just finished eating some unknown carcass it found by the side of the road. The Jags are 1-3 and they are being outscored by 11.25 points per game on average. The Bucs are 1-3 and they are being outscored by 11.25 points per game on average. Is there an echo in here…? There are two seemingly powerful trends at work here – if you believe in trends:

    Jags are 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points the week before.

    Bucs are 11-1 to stay UNDER in their last 12 games against opponents with losing records.

You may be sure that I am only reporting those trends and not unearthing them from a mountain of data. Jameis Winston may play like a reincarnated John Unitas this week – or he might throw a Pick Six and 2 other INTs in the game. Blake Bortles is not likely to play exceptionally well, but he is less likely to self-destruct. I cannot believe I am about to do this, but I’ll take the Jags plus the points here.

Buffalo – 2.5 at Tennessee (42): The spread opened at 4 points and has dropped slowly to this level. No, I do not understand why that is the case – unless someone knows that LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are not going to play much in the game for the Bills. Statistically, the teams are very close; neither one has an experienced QB under center; the Titans had a week off last week while the Bills were losing to the Giants. This is a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the Bills and lay the points on the road. Why not?

Cleveland at Baltimore – 6.5 (43): The Ravens are not in spectacular position right now, but think of how deep in the muck and mire they would have been with a loss last week. The Browns are – – the Browns. Were it not for the Jags/Bucs game above, this might have been the Dog Breath Game of the Week. I am not impressed by the Ravens’ offense this year; they are all of 9 yards per game better than the Browns’ offense which is not good. This is going to be a low-scoring game so I’ll take the Browns with that generous helping of points.

Washington at Atlanta – 7 (47.5): Both teams have pleasantly surprised their fans so far this season. The Falcons average almost 35 points per game; the Skins’ defense is better than it was last year but is hardly an elite unit. Meanwhile, the Skins’ offense has shown signs of real life at times this year. I like this game to go OVER.

Chicago at KC – 9 (45): The Bears scratched out a win at home over the Raiders last week. This week they go on the road to play a team that is better than the Raiders. It sure would be a good thing for the KC faithful if the Chiefs could find the end zone this week (see above). The Chiefs have played the Broncos, Packers and Bengals so far this year; this is not a Bye Week for them, but it is close. I like the Chiefs at home to win and cover.

New Orleans at Philly – 4.5 (49.5): Here you have two struggling teams and one of them will be left for dead by the side of the road at the end of this game. If the Sam Bradford iteration of this Eagles’ offense cannot move the ball and score on the Saints’ defense, the Eagles’ defensive unit should sue for divorce on the grounds of non-support. So far this year, the Eagles only average 6.2 yards per pass attempt and that is not good; however, the Saints defense allows opponents 9.4 yards per pass attempt and that is very bad. The last time the Eagles beat the Saints was in 2007; I think they will reverse the recent string of losses here. I like the Eagles at home to win and cover.

St Louis at Green Bay – 9 (45.5): The Total Line opened the week at 47.5 and has dropped steadily to this level. The Packers average about 10 points per game more than the Rams and the Packers allow about 5 points per game less than the Rams so far this year. If you are wondering why the Rams are 9-pooint dogs despite their tough defense, that is might be the reason. The Rams surprised the previously undefeated Cards last week in Arizona as 7-point underdogs; this week…? The biggest difference here is that the Packers average 95 yards per game more on offense than do the Rams; that is a lot. I like the Packers to win and cover at home and I like the game to go OVER.

Seattle at Cincy – 3 (43): The Seahawks have a short week after their Monday-night miracle win over the Lions. Add to that the fact that they play an out-of-conference opponent here after a 2000 mile flight across 3 times zones. Now consider that the Bengals are on a roll at 4-0 and lead the AFC North by 2 full games already and you can see why the Seahawks are the underdog here. However, I have a hunch that they might play a bit better than they have shown so far this year – particularly if their OL can do some business to allow the backs to run the ball a bit. I’ll take the Seahawks plus the points here.

Arizona – 2.5 at Detroit (44): Historically, the Cards are not a great road team, but in recent times, they have been much better on the road. The Lions are not a good team and if what they need is someone to grab them by their throats to rally them, Jim Caldwell is simply not that guy. I like the Cards on the road to win and cover here.

New England – 8.5 at Dallas (49): In a sense, the cavalry has arrived to “save” the Cowboys; Greg Hardy is back from suspension as is Randy Gregory. If the Cowboys are to have even a meager chance at winning this game, they will have to pressure Tom Brady and given how their DL has played recently, that would not happen without either of those players. So, can they apply real pressure or will they just be storylines? The Cowboys are 0-2 with Brandon Weeden as the starting QB; the Pats had an extra week to figure out how to confuse him even more than they would have normally. I like the Pats to win the game but that spread is not a comforting one. I shall seek the wisdom of the Curmudgeon Central Coin. The coin flips say to take the game to go OVER.

Denver – 4.5 at Oakland (43.5): The Raiders lost to the Bears in Chicago last week and the Broncos are much better than the Bears. Yes, the game is back home in Oakland, but the Broncos’ defense is not exactly a walkover for the Raiders’ offensive unit. I think the Raiders are overmatched; I like the Broncos to win and cover.

(Sun Nite) SF at Giants – 7 (43): The Niners are a bad team traveling cross-country to play a team that is not as bad as they are. However, that is about all I can say about the Giants because I do not think they are a good team. The trends point in one direction here:

    Niners are 1-8-1 against the spread in their last 10 games.
    Giants are 6-2-0 against the spread in their last 8 games.

I am confident the Niners can score more than 3 points this week but I am not confident that they can score 20 points here. Thus, I’ll take the Giants and lay the points.

(Mon Nite) Pittsburgh at San Diego – 3 (45.5): The Chargers are 2-2 despite being outscored by 14 points in those 4 games. The Steelers are also 2-2 and have outscored their opponents by 21 points in those 4 games. The problem with looking at those stats is that the Steelers ran up some of those margins with Ben Roethlisberger under center and he is not going to be there on Monday night. Two suspended players return to action here; the Chargers gat Antonio Gates back and the Steelers get Martavious Bryant back from too. I think Philip Rivers is better than Michael Vick and the Chargers are at home where they are 2-0 for the season. I like the Chargers to win and cover here.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

2 thoughts on “Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend of 10/11/15”

  1. Huh. I come here for the sports and I get reminders of school. I haven’t thought of Brownian motion in a verrrry long time. 🙂

    Mind you, in Cleveland’s case that Brownian motion is most akin to circling the drain.

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