For new arrivals on this meandering vehicle, let me put out the first Football Friday of the upcoming football season. Please do not take “Friday” literally; there will be weeks when it happens on Thursday; there will be weeks when external events do not allow for one of these at all. And please note that both Christmas Day and New Year’s Day fall on Fridays this season; so, who knows when/if there will be Football Fridays then.
Over the years, these offerings have come to have a loose format, and I’ll use today to explain what that format is. Each week, I will offer up a “Six Pack” of suggested wagers. Do not take “six” literally; some weeks there will be more and some weeks there will be fewer. And each week, I will offer up some “Money Line Parlays” as long as I find a couple that catch my eye. And in the week after offering up those suggestions, I will begin with a review of how they turned out and what the cumulative record for the season happens to be.
I will also report on what happened to my “Sleeper Team” in the previous week; for this season, I have picked the Florida Gators, and I hope that once again I predicted a team good enough to get to a bowl game.
Then comes a brief look at the season for the Division III Linfield Wildcats in McMinnville, OR. I have no ties to the school at all, but their football program is on a roll; they have had a winning season every year since 1956 – save of course for 2020 when COVID eliminated Division III football.
After that comes “College Football Commentary” – just random stuff related to college football that I find interesting. I have a few things on my plate even now as the season is about to get started so let put those comments in the typical format.
College Football Commentary:
Normally at this point in the season, the dominant narrative relates to projections as to conference champions and candidates for the CFP. Coaches are all optimistic; it is generally upbeat. This year, that usual narrative is distracted no little bit by things happening in courtrooms around the country. Players are suing the NCAA for extra eligibility; players are being cut from NFL teams and seeking to go back and play college football. As of today, the biggest winner in college football is “Billable Hours”.
Could anyone have imagined ten years ago that a player who signed with an NFL team and went to their training camp could turn around and play more college football when he did not make the NFL team? Surely, no one in the NCAA who drank the Kool Aid and believed in the amateur scholar-athlete could have done so. However, the seeds for the current situation in football were planted by the NCAA when they saw fit to allow European basketball players to come to US colleges after playing in pro leagues in their home countries.
The NCAA is an anachronism when it comes to the so-called “revenue sports”; the NCAA and its guiding principles might have traction in Division II or Division III athletics in 2026, but that is about all. What a mess…
There is an interesting irony here. A little over 20 years ago, Maurice Clarett wanted to join the NFL draft and was prevented from doing so because he was not three years removed from his high school graduation; the court ruled that the NFL could do so because that criterion had been negotiated into the existing CBA between the NFL and the certified union of its players. However, since Clarett had signed with an agent; he was not allowed to return to Ohio State – or any other school for that matter – by existing NCAA rules related to “amateur status”. If I were the producer for a sports talk radio show, I would try to get Maurice Clarett as a guest to see what his perspective is on the evolution of college football from his time in the sport until today.
Meanwhile, some conferences and schools are issuing rules saying that players who signed with NFL teams may be allowed to play college football but not in those conferences or at those schools. I am not aware of any legal challenges to such declarations by schools or conferences but somehow those “bans” seem different than a blanket NCAA dictum on the matter.
After “College Football Commentary” there will be a look back at some interesting games from last weekend. Obviously, there are no such games to deal with today; so, I will move quickly to the next segment on a typical Football Friday; I look at the schedule for this week and pick out interesting games and look at the betting lines for those games. The menu for this week is thin, but let me take a look at a few games in the so-called “Week Zero” for college football:
College Football Games This Week:
UNC vs. TCU – 8 (47) [Game played in Dublin, Ireland]: The spread opened at 6.5 points and has been climbing to the point that three sportsbooks have it as high as 9 points this morning. Also, the Total Line opened at 51 points and has been dropping steadily all week. I think UNC might gel later in the season as it gets in step with the new Bobby Petrino offense there, but I don’t see that happening from the start of the season. Give me TCU to win and cover; put it in the Six Pack.
New Mexico St. at Florida St. – 32 (54): This game is of interest to one specific reader of these rants. He attended both New Mexico St. and Florida St. in his college and grad school days.
Sacramento St. at E. Michigan – 9 (54): Sacramento St. was 9-5 last year in the big sky Conference at the Division I-AA level; E. Michigan is in the MAC and went 4-8 in that bottom-dwelling conference.
Hawaii at Stanford – 4 (48.5): Hawaii beat Stanford by 3 points last year, but before you label this as a revenge game for The Cardinal, recognize that there is a completely new coaching staff there this year and significant turnover in personnel. Hawaii should be one of the better teams outside the Power 4 and Stanford is one of the weaker teams in the Power 4. This could be an interesting game to watch.
Memphis at UNLV – 4 (56): Memphis is a solid Group of Six football program, but it has a new coach and a heavy turnover of personnel for this season. UNLV won 10 games last year and has aspirations for the CFP this year as the Group of Six selectee. Just a hunch, but I like the Rebels to win and cover here; put that in the Six Pack.
NC St. at UVa – 4 (51.5): This is a conference game right out of the box. The Wolfpack QB is CJ Bailey; keep an eye on him as the season progresses; he looked awfully good to me last year. This game was supposed to have been played in Brazil but the organizer/promoter for the game had to back out because it could not secure all the assets needed to put on the game nor could it generate sufficient interest to make a “break-even situation” possible. So, instead of Rio de Janeiro, these guys get to play in Charlottesville, VA. Bummer…
Jax St. at N. Dakota St – 7 (47): Jax St has been in Division 1-A since 2023; this is the first season at that level for N. Dakota St. Jax St was 9-5 last year including a bowl game; N, Dakota St. was 12-1 in Division 1-AA last year. This could be the most interesting game of the weekend.
And with college football out of the way, the rest of Football Friday will focus on the NFL starting with overall commentary and then a look at the games from last week and finally a look at all the games on the card for the weekend.
Finally, I wrap up with a review of the Six Pack:
- TCU – 8 over UNC
- UNLV – 4 over Memphis
Here are two money line parlays:
- TCU @-340
- UNLV @ -185 $100 wager to win $99
And …
- TCU @-340
- NC State @ +165 $100 wager to win $243
That’s the overview for “Fridays” from now until Feb 12, 2027 – – just before the Super Bowl game in SoFi Stadium in LA.
I’ll close today with this from Bear Bryant:
“Winning isn’t everything, but it sure beats anything that comes in second.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports ………