The Sports Curmudgeon

            As Michael Wilbon says to kick off the show, “Pardon the interruption …”  When I awoke last Wednesday, I found that my computer had gone to the great byte box in the sky overnight.  It took about a day to confirm that it could not be resuscitated and that a replacement was needed.  The rest of my “unexcused absence” was spent waiting for a new one to arrive and then to schedule assistance in setting it up.  Most of the files came back from wherever they exist on the Internet in a safe and sound condition; only a few are corrupted and about half of those can be “translated” into English without much difficulty.

So, maybe I should invoke the opening line of the song that Gene Autry crooned at the start of his TV program back in the 1950s:

“I’m back in the saddle again …”

About a week ago, I mentioned the passing of Ken Dryden and noted that I had just then learned that he was doing the color commentary for Al Michaels in the famous Olympic hockey game that produced the catch phrase, “Do you believe in miracles?”  Well, I now know – since my email is working again – that there is more to the story than that.  Thanks to the “reader in Houston” and his treasure trove of sports history, here is a lot more to that event:

“Another piece of trivia that most may not remember is that the game was shown on tape delay, as the Olympic schedule was decided before the tournament and it dictated that that the game between the top team in one division was to play the second-place team in the other division at 5 PM ET. It turned out those two teams were the USSR and US. Sweden and Finland were to follow at 8 PM ET.

“When preliminary play ended and the US advanced to the Medal Round, ABC wanted to obviously switch the order of the games to air the US game in primetime to most of the country, but the Olympic Committee said ‘no dice’ or something to that effect.

“The US-USSR game started at 5 PM with no live coverage. Back then they could probably get away with it because cell phones and cable TV were rare and text messaging, the Internet, Twitter (X), etc., were not around yet.

“As the game was going on in the Olympic Center (now Herb Brooks Arena) with fans waving American flags and chanting ‘U-S-A’ almost non-stop, those in the outside world were mostly unaware of what was going on.

“When ABC went on the air that night, the only hint that something was up was the delirious fans in the background as Jim McKay was doing a live introduction. Unfortunately, Jim did not give TV viewers any explanation why everyone was in such a joyful mood, so as not to mess things up.

“And then ABC went to the tape. Michaels and Dryden stayed in their seats to comment on the Sweden-Finland game just in case there was a problem with the US-USSR tape and ABC had to cut into live action in Sweden-Finland.”

And I just thought I was watching a hockey game …

Moving on …  Since I was mentioning a “sports on TV moment” here, let me take another moment to comment on sports broadcasting and sports TV now.  FS1 has begun to air a new program in the morning originated by Barstool Sports.  I have now tried on three different mornings to settle down and watch it for several segments to “get in the flow”.  I simply cannot do that; it is unwatchable.  FS1 has a competitive array of programming for most of the day but in the four hours between 8:00 AM and Noon (ET) on weekdays, they might just as well have dead air as far as I am concerned.

Tom Brady seems to have done some serious homework on how to be a color analyst on TV over the football offseason.  I have heard him twice now and he is offering insights and critiques this year instead of pabulum.  That is good on him and good for fans who will see him do the FOX premier game of the week.

I also like the pairing of JJ Watt with Ian Eagle on CBS a lot.  This is a broadcasting team that might become top shelf one of these days.

Rich Eisen and Kurt Warner did the “Brazil Game” on You Tube.  I thought they did a fine job with the audio portion of the game; the video portion was not nearly as good as productions here in the States at venues that are familiar to the folks who have to set up and maintain the equipment for the games.

Finally, since today is a “comeback” of sorts for me, I will close with this observation by Peyton Manning about comebacks:

“You hear about how many fourth quarter comebacks that a guy has and I think it means a guy screwed up in the first three quarters.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Ken Dryden died last weekend at the age of 78; he had been battling cancer for several years.  Dryden was the goalkeeper for the Montreal Canadiens in the 1970s and helped the club win six Stanley Cup Championships in his career.  He also won the Vezina Trophy five times during his tenure with the Canadiens.  One piece of trivia that I learned while reading about his passing is that Ken Dryden was the color commentator beside Al Michaels in the US/USSR ice hockey game that gave rise to the catch phrase, “Do you believe in miracles?”

Rest in peace, Ken Dryden.

The 2025 English Premier League season is still in its infancy; each team has played 3 games (fixtures) to date.  Liverpool is first in the standings (atop the table) as the only team (side) to have won all three of its matches.  There are two teams in the EPL that call the city of  Liverpool home; the other one is Everton which is actually older than the Liverpool team having been founded in 1878.  Everton has a new stadium that just opened last month; the new facility is called Hill Dickinson Stadium, and it seats just under 53,000 fans for Everton matches.  The name derives from a naming rights agreement between the Everton club and a law firm in the city of Liverpool.

A new stadium for Everton is a slightly bigger deal than just the structure.  Since 1892, Everton had played its home games in Goodison Park in Liverpool.  Obviously, the facility underwent renovations and upgrades and facelifts over about 130 years, but after a long and protracted planning process and lots of starts and stops regarding financing, Everton will have a new home and Goodison Park will be demolished and relegated to sports history/memory.

As is often the case, new stadium facilities attract large signature events.  Hill Dickinson Stadium has only been open for a couple of months, but they have already booked the 2025 Rugby League Ashes as the Australian rugby team comes to play in England.  In addition, the UAEFA Championship in 2028 will be hosted by Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland and Hill Dickinson Stadium will be one of the venues in England for that tournament.

As you might imagine, there is a rivalry between Liverpool and Everton; the fact that the two stadiums are less than 2 miles apart – – as the crow flies – – adds to the rivalry.  The EPL was founded in 1992; both Everton and Liverpool were charter members of the league.  In fact, both sides had been major forces in English futbol prior to the existence of the EPL:

• Liverpool had been in the top-tier of English futbol ever since 1962.  The team had been relegated out of what was then the top league in 1954 and finally clawed its way back into that elite status in 1962.
• Everton was last relegated out of the top level of English futbol at the close of the season in 1951.  Their tenure in a status below the top level was brief; they earned their way back to the top in 1954 and have remained there ever since.

Everton is in fifth place in the EPL table as of this morning having won two matches and played to a draw in the other.  Liverpool and Everton will meet in the new stadium in less than two weeks.  It should be a new chapter for a longstanding rivalry.

Having mentioned Liverpool’s presence in the EPL since the creation of the EPL, let me add another noteworthy stat.

• Since the creation of the EPL more than 30  years ago, Liverpool has never finished worse than 8^th place (in a 20-team league) for a season.
• With the relegation/promotion process that exists in English – – and European – – futbol, the EPL does represent the top level of competition in the sport there.  Having never finished below 8^th place is a measure of consistency not often found in sports.

Switching gears …  I got an email from #2 son with the following history/trivia regarding the Philadelphia Eagles:

“Just read a fascinating stat, courtesy of Draft Kings…

“With the win against the Cowboys this week, the total record for the Philadelphia Eagles is now 639-639-27. This is the first time they have had an overall .500 record since …. 1933, when they were 3-3-1 (They finished that year 3-5-1 and have had an overall losing record since.)”

Finally, here is a blessing – – of sorts – – from George Carlin:

“May the forces of evil become confused on the way to your house.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Today marks the return to the Internet of Football Fridays in full bloom.  We have college football in progress; we saw the start of the NFL regular season last night; Linfield University kicks off its pursuit of another winning record in football tomorrow.  Order has been restored to the football world.

Let me begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle” and “Money Line Parlays”

“Bundle”:       Last week:  1-2-0 (Not good but the season is early)

                        Season:  1-2-0

Parlays:          Last week:  1-1  Profit $28

                        Season:  1-2  Loss $72

            Turning now to the Linfield Wildcats’ game this weekend, the team is at home to play an out-of-conference game against the Titans of Wisconsin-Oshkosh.  These two teams met last year in Oshkosh and the Titans prevailed 28-21 in overtime.  The Wildcats should be looking to return the favor of all that traveling by the Titans squad.  Go Wildcats!

My “sleeper team” for 2025 is Georgia Tech.  The Yellowjackets got their season off on a solid footing beating Colorado 27-20.  Tech had a better presence on the stat sheet than on the scoreboard gaining 463 yards in the game while holding Colorado to 305 yards.  Tech QB, Haynes King, had an interesting game.  His passing stats were “Meh!”:

• 13 of 20 for 143  yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT

However, his legs made up for his arm’s deficiency:

• 19 carries for 156 yards and 3 TDs

Tech has a “tune-up game” this week hosting Gardner-Webb as a prelude to Game 3 of the season for Tech when they host 8^th ranked Clemson.  Go Yellowjackets!

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Let me start in classic curmudgeonly fashion by pointing out a couple of bad starts to the 2025 season from last week.  Middle Tennessee St. is hardly a college football blueblood; I doubt that too many Blue Raiders’ fans aspire to a New Year’s Day bowl bid let alone a chance to experience the CFP.  Nonetheless, Middle Tennessee St. started 2025 by getting clocked by Austin-Peay – – a Division 1-AA school from the Ohio Valey conference that went 4-8 last  year playing the likes of Alabama A&M, Southern Utah and West Georgia.  One historical note here, the last time Austin Peay beat a Division 1-A football team was in 1987 when they managed to beat K-State back at a time when K-State was awful.  Two stats from this game to give you an idea of how Middle Tennessee St. got its lunch handed to it:

• Middle Tennessee St. Total Offense = 153 yards
• Middle Tennessee State 3^rd down conversions = 0 for 12.

Another game made me wonder if it was a good omen for Tulane or a bad omen for Northwestern – – or both.  Tulane prevailed last week 23-3 holding Northwestern to only 233 yards of Total Offense while amassing 419 yards of offense on its own.  Tulane plays in the American Conference – – hold that thought.

USF hosted 25^th ranked Boise St. last week and won in a walk by the score of 34-7.  In case  you didn’t know, USF is also in the American Conference.  So, of course some folks have concluded that the American Conference champ will get the CFP bid as the best non-Power 4 conference champion.  There is no doubt those two wins are impressive and form the basis of building a résumé for the Committee to ponder.  However, let me look at how some of the other American Conference members began 2025:

• Army lost to Tarleton St. as a minus-500 Money Line favorite
• UAB beat Division 1-AA Alabama St. despite yielding 42 points
• Charlotte lost to Appalachian St. by 23 points
• Florida Atlantic lost to Maryland by 32 points

It looks to me as if the American Conference may have a real “mixed bag” of competitors and that could give the Selection Committee agita come December.

Purdue beat Ball St. 31-0.  Purdue was awful in 2024; so, is this evidence of a resurgent Boilermaker squad – – or is Ball St. that bad?  Between now and October 4^th, Purdue will face inter alia:

• USC, Notre Dame and Illinois.

Meanwhile in the same time frame, Ball St. will face:

• New Hampshire, UConn and Ohio.

By mid-October we should know the vector headings for these two schools…

The nation’s longest losing streak came to an end last weekend as Kent St. rose up and beat the mighty Warriors of Merrimack College by a score of 21-17.  Before Kent St. fans get irrationally exuberant, Merrimack outgained Kent St. in the game 340 yards to 309 yards.  Moreover, Division 1-AA Merrimack was a less-than-fearsome 5-6 in football in 2024.

There was a good news/bad news game last week for Oklahoma St.  Coming off a 3-9 season in 2024 and having lost the last 9 games in a row, the Cowboys needed something positive at the start of 2025.  They got that positive feeling after a 27-7 drubbing of Tennessee-Martin.  Now for the bad news:

• Oklahoma St. starting QB, Hauss Hejny, broke his foot in the game and will require surgery.

Temple beat UMass 42-10 last weekend.  I hate to overreact to early season results, but when a team loses to Temple by 32 points, that result screams SHOE Team!

Last year, Nick Saban went straight to the Bottom Line when speaking about the new NIL Era in college football:

“If you don’t pay the right guys, you’ll be sh*t out of luck.”

The football gods must have taken note because the following situation unfolded in Week 1 this year:

• Nico Iamaleava was the Tennessee QB last year.  He thought he deserved a raise in his NIL deal and Tennessee thought he was asking too much.  Iamaleava played “The Transfer Portal Card” and went west to UCLA.
• Tennessee won last week without Nico beating Syracuse 45-26.
• Meanwhile, Nico and UCLA were shellacked by Utah 43-10.  Let’s just say Nico was underwhelming in his Bruins’ debut.

And speaking of college QBs and early season reactions, Arch Manning was also underwhelming in his first game as “The Man” for the Texas Longhorns.  [Aside:  More on that later…]  Well, there is a betting market out there for which college player in 2025 will be the first pick in the NFL Draft in April 2026.  As a result of that below-expected performance by Manning his odds increased, and he is no longer the favorite in that betting space.  Two weeks ago, Manning was the betting favorite at +275 to be the first overall pick.  As of earlier this week, here is the betting lineup:

• Drew Allar (Penn State) +350
• Garrett Nussmeier (LSU)  +350
• LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina) +500
• Cade Klubnik (Clemson) +550
• Arch Manning (Texas)  +700

That is enough preamble for this week; let me comment on a few of the games that were more important from last week:

Florida St. 31  Alabama 17:  The pressure on these two coaches just underwent a tectonic shift.  Florida St. ran over the Alabama defense for 230 yards; Alabama fans are not used to seeing anything of the kind.  Meanwhile in Tallahassee, folks are falling back in love with Mike Norvell.  I think fans in Alabama need to take a deep breath and look rationally at recent Alabama football; these are not the Nick Saban version of Crimson Tide football teams.

• Last year Alabama finished with a 9-4  record losing to Vandy and an Oklahoma team that finished below .500 for the year.
• Couple those performances with a bowl game loss to Michigan and now this drubbing as a 2 TD favorite and you might think that the bloom is off the rose in Tuscaloosa.
• I am not writing Alabama off just yet, but they looked eminently beatable for four quarters of football last week.

Ohio St. 14  Texas 7:  This was a really good college football game to watch unless you are a Texas alum or your name is Arch Manning.  The Buckeyes just smothered the Longhorns offense holding Manning to 170 yards through the air; this victory belongs to that defensive unit.  The Ohio St. offense looked like a work in progress gaining only 203 yards in the game and recording only eleven first downs in the game – – and two of those eleven were via penalties.

LSU 17  Clemson 10:  Brian Kelly is off the schneid in Game 1 at LSU; this is his first win in that situation.  There were two highly regarded QBs in this game – – see Draft odds above – – but the game turned on the performance by the LSU defense; that unit held Clemson to 31 yards rushing and 261 yards of Total Offense for the game.  Clemson tried to run the ball for a while but just could not get it done.

Miami 27  Notre Dame 24:  The score was close, but I thought that Miami had the better offensive line and the better defensive line in the game.  Usually, that situation produces a much larger margin of victory.  I thought Carson Beck and CJ Carr played well at QB for the two teams.

TCU 38  UNC 14:  Call this one what it was; it was an organized ass-kicking and UNC played the role of a one-legged participant.  Here are the comparative stats:

• Total Offense: TCU = 542 yards            UNC = 222 yards
• First Downs:    TCU = 29                    UNC = 10
• Total Plays:     TCU = 72                    UNC = 49
• 3^rd Downs:       TCU = 7 of 12             UNC = 1 of 10

After the game, Bill Belichick said that the Tar Heels are “better than they showed”.  That had better be the case or it will be a long cold season in Chapel Hill, NC.

Washington St. 13  Idaho 10:  This is a rivalry game despite the difference in the size of the programs; the two schools are about 10 miles from each other.  Washington St. is clearly the “big brother” in this pairing, but this game was as close as the scoreboard would indicate.  Washington St. tried but could not run the ball gaining only 8 yards on the ground in the game.  Idaho could not throw the ball effectively gaining only 51 yards passing in the game.  The deciding score was a field goal with 3 seconds left on the clock.

Wyoming 10  Akron 0:  That score is most appropriate because the Akron nickname is The Zips” – – and they scored squadoosh in the game.

 

NCAA Games of Interest:

 

Let me start with seven games that are of little or no interest this week due to spreads of 5 TDs or more:

1. Kent St. at Texas Tech – 48
2. Ball St. at Auburn – 44
3. Florida International at Penn State – 41.5
4. San Jose St at Texas – 37
5. LA Tech at LSU – 37
6. Kennesaw St at Indiana – 36
7. La-Monroe at Alabama – 35

Iowa at Iowa St. – 3 (41):  I like this game to go OVER; Iowa St. has done well on offense in 2 games and maybe this is the time for Iowa’s offense to  be something other than somnambulant.  “Put that in the Betting Bundle”.

Stanford at BYU – 20 (46):  Stanford lost to Hawaii last week and got this stat line from its QB, Ben Gulbranson:

• 15 of 30 for 109 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT

That was against Hawaii’s defense; this is BYU.  This game could get ugly…

Middle Tennessee St. at Wisconsin – 28.5 (45):  See above for how bad the Blue Raiders were last week.  Was that some sort of aberration or might they lose this one by 50 points?

UNC – 13 at UNC-Charlotte (49):  This spread opened at 19 points but there must be a lot of money fading the Tar Heels after last Monday night’s debacle to move the line that much and across so many commonplace scoring differences.

Austin Peay at Georgia (No Lines):  Can the Governors make it two wins in a row over Division 1-A teams?  Uh … no!

 

NFL Commentary:

 

I wonder why no one “threw out a challenge flag: on Travis Kelce’s engagement proposal over the last week or so.  Looked to me as if his foot was on the line and the proposal should be ruled incomplete.  Why no “Booth Review”?

More than enough has been written/said regarding the trade of Micah Parsons to the Packers from a game perspective and from the perspective of how Jerry Jones could have done something so stupid.  I want to ask a different question regarding that exchange:

• Did Parsons come out as the “big winner” in the deal with his monster contract from the Packers – – or – –
• Did Parsons’ agent, David Mulugheta, come out as the “big winner” in the deal?

Personally, I think that Mulugheta earned himself a handful of premier clients with the way everything unfolded in this transaction.  The only downside from his perspective is that Jones and the Cowboys are not likely to be working with him for one of those future clients, so his universe of potential suitors is down to 31 teams.

Circle September 28, 2025 on  your calendar; that is the day that the Green Bay Packers – – with Micah Parsons – – journey to Arlington, TX to play the Dallas Cowboys.  Should be a fun game and it is going to be the Sunday Night Football Game available to all.

Let me try again to look at a situation from a different perspective.  The Chicago Bears have not had a high-quality QB since Sid Luckman in the 1940s; that is a long time to be wandering about in the QB desert.  However, looking back at the Chicago Bears pass catchers over the last 50 years, who of that cohort was a standout?  Mike Ditka at tight end?  As I thought about this, I asked myself who was the best Chicago Bears WR that I could recall without a lengthy Google search.  Here is my answer:

• Alshon Jeffrey

So, now my thinking is that the Bears have never had a good QB and that they have never had a wide receiver – – or two – – who might make a good QB appear to be great?  You folks made the call …

In last night’s Eagles/Cowboys game, there were more than enough storylines and angles for the broadcasting crew to exploit from their pregame notes.  Forget that, Jalen Carter – – who is simultaneously the best interior DT in the NFL and also a physical 24-year-old with the emotional maturity of a 7-year-old – – was ejected from the game before the first play from scrimmage.  He deserved his punishment; he needs to get his brain somewhere near the level of his physical body; the Eagles managed to win last night’s game simply because the Cowboys were also playing without their best defender – – Micah Parsons.

Forget the delay due to lightning strikes in the area of the game, this was not a tour de force of efficiently executed plays by either team on offense or on defense.  The Eagles came away with a win on the night that they unveiled their Super Bowl banner from 2024 leaving their fans with a warm – – and possibly inebriated – – feeling for the day.

 

Games This Week:

 

Let me start with a general observation.  Forgetting last night’s Eagles/Cowboys game, there are 15 games on tap for NFL bettors to consider.  Of those 15 games offered up for wagering consideration, as I count- –  ten of the games have a line equal to or less than a field goal.  Is that due to parity run amok or is that due to lots of teams seeking to run the football successfully thereby taking scoring time off the clock and ushering in an era of low scoring NFL football games?

Speaking of last night’s Eagles/Cowboys game, a report this morning characterized Jalen Carter’s ejection from the game as a “non-football act” which was deemed punishable by banishment.  Come on, now; they have him on video spitting on Dak Prescott.  Yes, it appears as if Prescott spit also – – but not on Carter; nonetheless Carter’s behavior goes beyond childishness and crosses into the realm of boneheadedness.

            In any case, the Eagles managed to defend their championship status last night despite Jalen Carter’s absence and the fact that AJ Brown only caught 1 pass for a total of 8 yards.  Last night was the Jalen Hurts show; he led the team in passing and rushing scoring two TDs along the way.  It was not pretty, but the Eagles’ defense shut out the Cowboys in the second half when they needed to do so.

(Tonite) Chiefs – 3 vs Chargers (46.5) Game is in Sao Paulo Brazil:  This will be the fourth time the Chiefs have played a game outside the US; the team is undefeated when assigned one of the “International Games”.  The Chiefs will be without Rashee Rice who will miss the first 6 games this season due to a league suspension.  If you read my previous predictions for this NFL season, you know that I picked the Chargers to win the AFC West; so now you know why I am taking the Chargers plus points in this game.  I think Jim Harbaugh will have the Chargers primed and ready to go even more than Andy Reid will have his team ready for action.  Give me the Chargers plus the points; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

Steelers – 3 at Jets (38):  As if on cue, the NFL gives us a revenge game in Week 1.  Aaron Rodgers goes up against his teammates from last year and Justin Fields does the same.  If only I cared about either QB …

Dolphins at Colts “pick’em” (47):  Here is a game where shopping the spread could matter.  At one sportsbook this morning, the Dolphins are favored by 1.5 points; at a handful the Dolphins are favored by a point; at other sportsbooks, the Colts are 1-point favorites, and more than a handful of sportsbooks have this as a “pick ‘em game”.  Here is a trend that might have something to do with this game:

• The Colts have lost the season opening games in each of the last 11 NFL  seasons.

Panthers at Jags – 3.5 (47):  The Panthers were 2-point favorites in this game, and I have no insight  as to how or why the line has moved so dramatically.  I will be interested to see how the Jags’ offense – – and particularly Trevor Lawrence – – fares in this game and in the first few games of this season because lots of folks think that pairing Lawrence with new head coach, Liam Coen, is going to be a big deal in the AFC South Division.

Giants at Commanders – 6 (46):  Here are two teams arriving at the kickoff with lots of optimism.  The Giants are convinced that their QB situation is significantly upgraded with Russell Wilson at the helm – – and with wunderkind Jaxson Dart ready and able in the bullpen so to speak.  Also, the word out of the Giants’ training camp is the Abdul Carter may indeed be the second coming of Lawrence Taylor.  On the other side, the Commanders are riding the wave of a 12-win season in 2024.  The last time that happened with a Washington NFL team was back in 1991 when the Skins won the Super Bowl.

Bengals – 5 at Browns (48):  Just in case fans in Ohio might be paying too much attention to Ohio State football, the NFL leads off with “The Battle for Ohio”.  The game could become very interesting because the Bengals’ offense versus the Browns’ defense pairs two excellent units.  At the same time, the Bengals’ defense versus the Browns’ offense pairs two woebegone units.  So, how will all that manifest itself on Sunday?  The Bengals are notoriously slow starters; they began the 2022 and 2023 seasons with 0-2 records; last year, they opened at 0-3.  Can they find a way to get that monkey off their back?

Raiders at Pats – 2.5 (44):  Way back in the offseason, the Raiders were 7-point favorites in this game; I have no explanation for that large a swing in the betting line for this game.  Both teams were 4-13-0 in 2024 and both teams fired first year head coaches once the season was done.  Mike Vrabel in New England and Pete Carrol in Las Vegas come to their current jobs with lofty expectations from their fanbase.

Cards – 6 at Saints (43):  I picked the Cards to win the NFC West this year; this game will tell me a lot about the viability of that prediction.  The Cards have a distinct advantage at QB in the game, but the Cards have a history of not coming through with a full exploitation of talent advantages.  If the Cards are “for real”, they should romp and stomp here.  I like the Cards to show up ready for action meaning they will demonstrate that they are the better team.  I’ll take them to win and cover even on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Bucs – 2 at Falcons (47):  Here is another game where the favored team has flipped since the start of Training Camp.  More than a few pickers think that the Bucs will take a step back this year due to the absence of their Offensive Coordinator from 2024.

Titans at Broncos – 9 (42.5):  Breaking in a rookie QB against a defense that is as good and as aggressive as the Broncos’ defense might not be the optimum way to go.  But the schedule-makers have spoken …

Niners – 2 at Seahawks (43):  The Niners opened as a 6.5-point favorite; I have no idea what either team has done over the last two weeks to cause that swing in the spread.  But late this week, a report said that Christian McCaffrey was “limited” in a team practice due to a “calf injury”.  The Niners have already had a season’s worth of nagging injuries and player/team kerfuffles.  I think the winner of this game will be the team that is more ready to play a “for real” game as opposed to an extension of the Exhibition Season.

Lions at Packers – 2.5 (47):  The Lions were 2-point favorites here – – and then the Micah Parsons trade happened and that line shifted almost immediately.  That does not make a lot of sense to me because Parsons has not practiced or played in quite a while and has not had more than a passing glance at the Packers defensive playbook.  I have no doubt Parsons will be a factor once he gets into the rhythm of a regular season, but that time is not this weekend.  It will be interesting to see how the Lions look with their two new coordinators running the show.  I smell a small upset here; I’ll take the Lions plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”. 

Texans at Rams – 3 (43):  I think both teams are going to be in tight quarters when it comes down to playoff slots; therefore, this game is a big one even if it is an inter-conference game and it happens in Week 1.  Matthew Stafford did not play in the Exhibition Games and has been nursing a “back injury”; we may be able to determine by his mobility in this game if all of that was real or just a smokescreen.

(Sun Nite) Ravens- 1  at Bills  (51):  I will anoint this as the Game of the Week just edging out the Chargers/Chiefs game.  If you told me that  you thought this could also be the pairing in the AFC Championship Game in January 2026, I would not expend a lot of effort to change your mind.

(Mon Nite) Vikes – 1 at Bears (44):  Call this “The Question Mark Game”.

• Is JJ McCarthy the real deal for the Vikes?
• What is more likely, the Vikes winning the division or finishing last in the division?
• Is the marriage of Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams the start of a dynasty?

So, let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Iowa/Iowa St. OVER 41
• Chargers +3 against Chiefs
• Lions +2 against Packers
• Cards – 6 over Saints

And for Money Line Parlays this week:

• Commanders @ minus-250
• Jaguars @ minus-190            $100 wager to win $113

And …

• Ole Miss @ minus-320
• Tulane @ minus-370
• Syracuse @ minus-240          $100 wager to win $136

And …

• Lions @ +120
• Broncos @ minus-400
• Cards @ minus-275                $100 wager to win $275

Finally, this from Nick Saban:

“I played so long ago, I don’t think anybody even knew you could transfer. I don’t think they knew anything about it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

George Raveling died.  He was a successful basketball coach at USC and at Washington State.  He cut his teeth in the college basketball world as Lefty Drisell’s top recruiter when Lefty was about the business of resurrecting basketball at Maryland.  The moment of his coaching career that I recall was a time when he was at USC and their next game was at Arizona which was ranked #1 in the country at the time.  Raveling was asked how he was preparing for that challenge.  He said that he realized the level of “greatness” exhibited by Arizona and so he had gone to the library to get a copy of the Japanese Surrender Papers so he could submit them just before tip-off.

Rest in peace, George Raveling.

A September MLB game between Team A (record = 52-88) and Team B (record = 62-77) is normally worth what Daniel Patrick Moynihan once called “benign neglect”.  However, in one specific circumstance where Team A is the Chicago White Sox and Team B is the Minnesota Twins, there is a nugget of interest.

The White Sox trailed 3-1 at the end of the 8^th inning but rallied to score 3 runs in the top of the ninth to win the game 4-3.  Up until that moment, the Chicago White Sox had lost 205 consecutive games when they trailed going into the ninth inning.  That is a level of frustration and incompetence that needs to be appreciated now that it no longer stands.

Moving on …  When the Eagles and Cowboys kick off tonight and put the NFL regular season in motion, the football season is officially “fully functional”.  That means I will listen to play-by-play guys and color analysts doing various games for multiple hundreds of hours.  That means I am certain to be exposed to three manipulations of the English language that have become commonplace in sports broadcasting.  Would that I were able to expunge them …

1. “Hostile environment”:  In a football game, that means one team has the benefit of noisy, raucous and devoted fans while the other team must endure insults slung their way by said noisy, raucous and devoted fans.  Big deal…  A hostile environment is Gaza City in the summer of 2025; a hostile environment is  the Atacama Desert in Northern Chile where it rains about once every two decades; a hostile environment is not needing to endure being the visitors in a football game.
2. “Line to gain”:  Somehow, this phrase replaced “first down” or “first down marker”.  Players now fail – or succeed – in making the line to gain.  No longer does a player make or fail to make a first down.  Has this been a net positive for the English language?  Does the English language now get a new set of downs?
3. “Running downhill”:  Football is played on a level surface that is ever so slightly sloped toward each sideline to facilitate drainage when it rains.  No one runs downhill or uphill or east/west or north/south.  Players run towards and away from their goal lines.  Period.

            Switching gears …  I have a nugget of good news to share today.  March Madness in 2026 will not expand; it will continue to invite 68 teams to compete.  There is no sporting reason and no groundswell of fan interest in expanding the Tournament.  The only people suggesting it would be a good idea are coaches who have bonus clauses in their contracts for making the Tournament field or business execs who always look at ways to wring the greatest number of dollars out of any and all situations.  At least for the moment, we have been spared from the consequences of the NCAA listening to the pleadings of those sorts of folks.

Finally, these from Will Rogers:

“It isn’t what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.”

And …

“Everything is funny, as long as it’s happening to somebody else.”

And …

“When the Oakies left Oklahoma and moved to California, it raised the I.Q. of both states.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Let me get one thing out of the way immediately; the Washington Nationals should never have expected to be a playoff team in 2025 back when they reported to Spring Training in February.  The team has several young players who – when they develop their games to the fullest – will be serious major league properties.  But 2025 was never going to be that year.  Injuries and a catastrophic month of June placed this young team under a cloud cover worthy of Joe Btfsplk [Hat Tip: Al Capp].  Even now, with the team firmly ensconced in last place in the NL East, the bad news and the what ifs rain down on the Nats.

One of the young players whose future seems bright in MLB is left-hander MacKenzie Gore.  The Nats got him from the Padres in the Juan Soto trade a couple of years ago and Gore was the #3 pick in the MLB Draft in his year.  No one has mistaken him for Clayton Kershaw just  yet, but he gave every indication that he could be the Nats’ “top-of-the-rotation guy”  pretty soon.  In fact, Gore was named to the All-Star Game in July of this year and in the games leading up to the All-Star Game he ranked second in the NL in strikeouts.

At the trade deadline, there were rumblings that the Nats might consider trading Gore for what would probably have been another bucket of prospects.  There was some rationale to that thinking then:

• The Nats’ farm system is not overflowing with top prospects
• It is going to be a couple of years until the Nats are real contenders
• Gore could be hard to sign; his agent is Scott Boras

The Nats interim braintrust – – they fired the manager and the GM in the leadup to the trade deadline – – opted to keep Gore on the team presumably thinking of him as their “top-of-the-rotation” starter very soon.  And that is where Joel Btfsplk and his cloud enter stage left…

• MacKenzie Gore ERA prior to All-Star Game = 3.04
• MacKenzie Gore ERA after All-Star Game = 7.54
• MacKenzie Gore is now on the 15-day IL with “shoulder inflammation”

MacKenzie Gore’s trade value – – should the Nats reconsider that option over the winter – – is probably diminished from what it was at the All-Star break.  For the MLB 2025 season, the Nats have not been able to catch a break even as well as one might catch a cold.

Moving on …  A couple of months ago, reports had it that Malik Beasley – – an NBA free agent looking for a new team and a new deal – – was a target of a federal investigation into “gambling”.  As you might imagine, that cooled off the market for his services significantly and immediately.  Late last week, the direction of this story changed significantly; the investigation is not finished, but Beasly is no longer a target of the investigation by the Feds.  So, all’s well that ends well, right?

Well, maybe …  Some reports have said that while Beasley is not a target of the investigation, he is still under investigation and might possibly still be accused of something involved with this probe.  Sports leagues take an even dimmer view of “gambling involvement” than the Feds do.  The PR folks in every professional sports league have at the ready a whole suite of statements/reactions to any sort of gambling allegation associated with their league.  It would not surprise me to learn that they have all of them filed under the heading:

• Integrity of the game

So, while Malik Beasley might not worry so much about the Feds when it comes to “punishment”, he is not necessarily out of the woods when it comes to Adam Silver handing out “punishment”.  There have to be a half-dozen words and phrases in the NBA Personal Conduct Policy – – or whatever it is called these days – – that could be applied to Beasley and his peripheral association with the ongoing investigation.  Moreover, the league has a positive motivation to mete out some punishment here on the theory that such a punishment might act as a deterrent for any other player to find himself named in any way by a federal gambling investigation.

NBA Training Camps start in 3 weeks; many teams have already set their rosters without considering the possibility of retaining the services of Malik Beasley.  His agents have work to do and not a whole lot of time to get it done.  And they must work in an environment where their client might still be charged with something by the Feds and/or be subject to the wrath of Adam Silver.  Those agents will earn their commission on this one.

Switching gears …  As of this morning, the Colorado Rockies have a run differential of minus-352 runs in 2025.  The Rockies have 24 more games to play and at the rate they are winning games this year, that means their record over the final 24 games should be 7-17.  That also means that one should expect the Rockies’ run differential to get even worse than it is today.  So, why is that worth considering this morning?

• The All-Time Record for worst run differential in a season was set by the Boston Red Sox in 1932 at minus-349 runs.
• The Rockies have already sunk below that level and look to put some distance between their “new record” the one that had stood for 93 years.

Finally, this from Lee Trevino:

“Only bad golfers are lucky. They’re the ones bouncing balls off trees, curbs, turtles and cars. Good golfers have bad luck. When you hit the ball straight, a funny bounce is bound to be unlucky.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Last week’s rants were overloaded with stuff about football; so, today I want to circle back and comment on things happening in other dimensions of the sports world.  There is what I consider to be Good News and Bad News around sports broadcasting from last week; I’ll start with the Bad News.

• Former Villanova basketball coach, Jay Wright, announced that he will not be returning to CBS/TNT next March as one of the studio analysts for March Madness.  I consider that “Bad News” because I thought he was excellent in that role; his contributions to the discussions were not smothered in coach-speak and they often highlighted a subtlety of the game that had eluded the other commentators.  He left the door open about returning to the networks in the future but for now he said he wanted to devote his time and energy to his family and to his role as “Special Assistant to the President of Villanova”.

Bonne chance, Jay Wright – and thank you for your insights …

There are two entries in the “Good News Menu”:

1. ESPN announced that they will change up the announcing team for next year’s NBA Finals.  Mike Breen will return on play-by-play and Richard Jefferson will return as one of the color commentators.  Doris Burke will be replaced by Tim Legler.  I won’t pretend that I know enough about Legler as a game analyst to be overjoyed by his ascension into that role; I do know that I will not miss Doris Burke very much in that role.  I said here before that I did not think she added value to the telecast with her comments.
2. According to a report by Richard Deitsch in The Athletic, FOX Sports will have Ian Darke doing play-by-play next summer for the FIFA World Cup games here in North America.  Darke has been associated with soccer broadcasting around the world for the last 30 years or so; he has been a favorite of mine since I first heard him do games back in 2010.  I have said here before that no one tunes into a game just to hear the announcer(s) and I stand by that statement.  In the case of Ian Darke calling World Cup games, I will be glad to hear his voice on the microphone when I do choose to tune in.  The World Cup will expand to 48 teams for the first time in 2026 meaning there will be a total of 104 games in the entire tournament.  Ian Darke should have plenty of opportunities to ply his trade next summer.

Moving on …  Last week, Kyle Schwarber hit four home runs in a game and had a plate appearance in the 8^th inning with a chance to hit a fifth one – – a feat that no one has ever done in MLB.  Some interesting historical tidbits came out of that game:

• Only 21 players in MLB history have ever hit four home runs in a game.  No player has ever done it twice.
• Schwarber is the fourth Phillies player to do so; Mike Schmidt, Chuck Klein and Ed Delahanty are the other three.  The Phillies are the only MLB team to have four players on that rather exclusive list.
• Going into the 2025 season, the last time a player hit four home runs in a single game was in 2017 when JD Martinez did it.  In 2025, there have been three players to accomplish this feat – – Nick Kurtz (A’s) and Eugenio Suarez (D-Backs) before Schwarber.
• Schwarber accomplished this feat against the Atlanta Braves pitching staff.  Interestingly, when Suarez went deep 4 times in a game earlier this yar, it was also against the Atlanta Braves pitching staff.
• The first player to hit four home runs in a game was Bobby Lowe of the Boston Beaneaters in 1894.  In that season, Lowe hit a total of only 17 home runs in 678 plate appearances.  In fact, over his 18-year career in MLB, Bobby Lowe only hit 71 home runs meaning he averaged only 3.9 home runs per season – – and yet he got 4 of them in a single game.
• Baseball is a funny game …

Next up …I am sure you have heard and read more than enough about the Cowboys’ decision to trade Micah Parsons to the Packers.  I doubt if you care to know my take on who won the trade or how the negotiations with the Cowboys ran off the rails or anything of that sort.  But there is an aspect to that situation that I do want to address.

• In the aftermath of the trade, a couple of reports appeared saying that Micah Parsons was a “bad teammate” and that he was a “me first guy”.

Let me be clear; I don’t know Micah Parsons or any other member of the Dallas Cowboys team or coaching staff.  I do not even have third hand knowledge of how he fit in with his teammates or did not fit in.  Having said that, I have a problem with the reporting here.

Micah Parsons had been part of the Dallas Cowboys organization for four years.  Until last weekend, no such reporting was out and about in the land.  And yet, we have reporters and commentators who present themselves as “insiders”.  So, riddle me this:

1. Did they “know” about this malignant aspect of Micah Parsons’ presence on the team all along and fail to tell the story?  OR
2. Did they “not know” about any of this until last weekend?

It seems to me that neither of the two options above place the putative “insiders” in a favorable light.  Either they “hid the story” – – meaning I should be skeptical about some if not all their “reporting” – – or they are not nearly as “inside” as they are made out to be.  You make the call …

Finally, an interesting viewpoint by George F. Will:

“The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

About 30 years ago, they “invented” Casual Friday.  About 15  years ago, I “invented” Football Friday.  So, which do you prefer?

Last week, there was no “Betting Bundle” to review.  However:

• Money Line Parlay was a loss.
• Season Totals to date:  Record is 0-1  Profit/Loss = minus-$100

Linfield University did not have a game last week – – nor will it have a game next weekend – – so there is nothing to report on that front.

My 2025 “sleeper team” – – Georgia Tech – – did not play last week.  They will take on Colorado tonight.  Go Yellowjackets!

 

College Football Commentary:

 

If you think of the college football as a multi-course tasting menu, then last week was merely an amuse-bouche.  The festivities get underway seriously this week.  So, let me begin with some serious college football notes.

For quite a while now, there has been criticism of the SEC for playing fewer conference games than they possibly could each season.  The other Power Conferences play 9 conference games, and the SEC has played 8.  The impact and the importance of that discrepancy has been magnified beyond any logic that Aristotle would have understood; it had become a burr under the saddle for college football commentators.  Now it appears that the SEC will make the change to a 9-game conference schedule starting in 2026.

Trust me when I say that I picked these three SEC schools at random and then went to look up their 2025 out-of-conference opponents – – you know, the ones the coaches and the athletic directors select to provide the best entertainment value for the fans and supporters of the program.

1. Ole Miss will play Georgia St., Tulane, Washington St. and The Citadel
2. Tennessee will play Syracuse, East Tennessee St., UAB and New Mexico St.
3. Georgia will play Marshall, Austin Peay, UNC-Charlotte and Georgia Tech.

            Look at the 12 games on this year’s schedule listed above.  Georgia/Georgia Tech is a traditional rivalry game that goes back more than 100 years; other than that game, are any of the other eleven games even interesting?  I assert that is the criterion to use here because it is blatantly obvious that none of the eleven are important.

Some commentators have ascribed the SEC change of mind as being based in blunting an argument made by Big-10 schools to expand the CFP and change the way CFP slots would be assigned.  Perhaps that is the case; perhaps it is not; I don’t really care.  What I think is that more conference games and fewer “glorified scrimmages” makes for better entertainment and more intense fan engagement and all that is better for college football.

There is an added wrinkle in the upcoming SEC schedule change.  Starting next year, SEC schools will also need to schedule at least one of its out-of-conference opponents from one of the “Power 4 Conferences”.  That will not eliminate mismatches, but it will make for better matchups across the board.

So now, it is time to start a drumbeat for the other major conferences to reduce/minimize out-of-conference cupcake games.

1. Penn State will play Nevada, FIU and Villanova
2. Indiana will play Old Dominion, Kennesaw St. and Indiana St.
3. Oklahoma State will play Tennessee-Martin, Tulsa and UCF

If you look at those nine games on the calendar for this season, you will see there is still work to be done…

There will be some rule changes for college football in 2025.  There are dozens of changes on tap and if you want to stroll through all of them and try to understand how they will be applied and why they were considered in the first place, here is a link to – mostly – clear and concise explanations,

I will point out a couple here that I find either important or head-scratching:

• Feigning injuries:  If a player appears to be injured after the ball is spotted by officials, that team will be charged a timeout – – or a delay of game penalty if all the team’s timeouts have been used. Additionally, that player must remain out of the game for at least one down and cannot return to the game until receiving approval of professional medical personnel designated by their institution who have examined the injury.  This is obviously intended to curb faking injuries to effect unlimited timeouts late in games.  Administering this rule will not be easy and the recordkeeping needed to ensure no player returns without the proper medical approval will be burdensome for officials.
• Pre-snap movement:  Players within one yard of the line of scrimmage may not make “abrupt or exaggerated actions” that might be associated with the start of a play as a way to draw the offense offside or to create offensive illegal motion.  This should be relatively easy to enforce once an officiating team settles on what constitutes improper movements by the defenders and what is “normal”.
• Clear eye shields:  In the past, eye shields had to be clear; any sort of tint in the plastic was impermissible.  For reasons that elude me, the rules mavens now allowed manufacturers to submit examples of “nearly clear” face shields to the rules mavens for approved use in games.  An even more basic question here is why would there be such a rule?  If a player wanted to use a completely opaque eye shield and his coach allowed him to do something that stupid, why would the rulebook try to save him from himself?

            My “sleeper team” from last  year – – Nebraska – – opened its season last night with a win over Cincy by a score of 20-17.  Keep an eye on the Nebraska QB – Dylan Raiola.  He led the team to a bowl game last year as a true freshman and threw for almost 3000 yards in the season.  He is back with the Huskers and last night posted this stat line:

• 33 of 42 for 243  yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs
• Not bad for a kid who is only 20 years old.

            As some schools have chosen to move toward a more aggressive scheduling philosophy, those schools have seen that scheduling an attractive early season game can be a good way to get the program some national TV exposure.  It used to be that the first week or two of the college football season was an extension of training camp more times than not.  The blight of the “Blowout Game” has not been eradicated as witnessed by these spreads on games for this weekend.  There are more than the ones I listed here because I tried to limit the listing to games where the spread was more than 5 TDs:

• Western Illinois (+48) at Illinois
• Nevada (+45) at No. 2 Penn State (this game will be on CBS)
• Marshall (+39.5) at No. 5 Georgia (this game will be on ESPN)
• Illinois State (+35.5) at No. 18 Oklahoma
• New Mexico (+37) at No. 14 Michigan (this game will be on NBC)
• Georgia State (+38) at No. 21 Ole Miss (this game will be on SEC Network)

I don’t want to leave the impression that the first real week of the college football season is a bummer; it is not.  There are more than a handful of interesting and important games on the schedule, so, let’s take a look …

 

NCAA Games of Interest:

 

(Fri Nite) Auburn – 2 at Baylor (58):  In my College Football Pre-Season Analysis, I listed Auburn coach, Hugh Freeze, as a coach on a hot seat.  Now, his team opens on the road as a favorite against a Power 4 opponent who was 5-1 at home in 2024.

(Fri Nite) Georgia Tech – 4 at Colorado (51):  If experience counts for a lot in college football, my “sleeper team” has the edge here.  Tech returns its starting QB, Haynes King, and three starting offensive linemen; Colorado is adapting to life without Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders.

(Fri Nite) UNLV – 10 at Sam Houston St. (61):  UNLV won last week beating the fearsome Idaho State Bengals 38-31.  Idaho St racked up more than 500 yards on offense in the game meaning that UNLV’s potent offense will have to be on alert this year because the UNLV defense was exposed there to be “porous”.  Bettors took note; the Total Line here opened at 58 points and has risen all week; some books have the game at 61.5 and one book has it at 62 points.  I don’t like to make picks or bets early in the season, but I would take a flyer here on the OVER just because I think UNLV will score and UNLV will allow others to score.  Put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Ball St at Purdue – 17.5 (50):  Purdue was 1-11 last year; it not only lost games, but Purdue was also thoroughly outclassed most of the time.  And here they are a 17.5-point favorite?  Question:

• How bad do the oddsmakers think Ball St. is?

Temple – 1.5 at UMass (48):  This could have implications for the SHOE Tournament at the end of the season.

Texas at Ohio St. – 1.5 (47.5):  This is undoubtedly the Game of the Week.  This spread opened at 3 points; the movement to this level – – and there is one offshore sportsbook that has the game a 1 point – – means that there had to be a ton of “Texas money” placed on the game because Ohio St. fans are never bashful about backing their team with greenbacks.  Arch Manning will be on the field for Texas; Jeremiah Smith will be on the field for Ohio State.  That is a good thing because if those two players were on the same team, the spread in this game might be 3 TDs.

Alabama – 13.5 at Florida St. (50.5):  Let me go out on a limb here:

• Florida State will be better in 2025 than it was in 2024.

How can I be so sure?  The Seminoles were 2-10 last year; that is not a high bar to overcome.  Alabama was disappointing last year in that they were not in the semi-finals of the CFP which some Bama fans had come to believe was a birthright.  Alabama could well be invited to the CFP this year and I doubt that Florida St. is at a point where they are competitive at that level.  Even on the road I think Alabama will dominate here and cover the spread; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

LSU at Clemson – 4 (57.5):  Brian Kelly has never won an opening game in his time at LSU; is this the year he “breaks through”?  This is a face-off for two QBs who will get a lot of attention over the season.  Garrett Nussmeier is in charge for LSU while Cade Clubnik calls the shots for Clemson.  Here is an angle for the game:

• Clemson’s DL is considered to be one of the best in the country
• LSU will have 4 first time starters on the OL in this game

Here is one last flyer for the “Betting Bundle”; I like this game to stay UNDER 57.5.

(Sun Nite) Notre Dame – 2.5 at Miami (50):  Miami graduated Cam Ward from last  year’s squad and Notre Dame will be missing a half-dozen quality players from last year.  The winner of this game will hope to point to it down the line as a major contributor to its “Strength of Schedule”.  Definitely worth tuning in for this one …

(Mon Nite) TCU – 3 at UNC (56):  The spread opened with UNC as a 2-point favorite, so this represents a 5-point swing in the spread.  Meanwhile, the Total Line opened at 59 and has come down 3 points.  All that line movement could make the game an interesting one to watch but that pales in comparison to the fact that this is Bill Belichick’s college football debut as a head coach.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

This week has not been kind to the offspring of some Pro Football Hall of Fame players:

• Shedeur Sanders (son of Deion) – – third string QB on a QB-starved team
• Shiloh Sanders (son of Deion) – – cut by Bucs
• Terique Owens (son of Terrell) – – cut by the Niners
• Brenden Rice (son of Jerry) – – cut by Chargers

The Minnesota Vikings will have transgender women cheerleaders this year in addition to the cisgender women on the squad.  This is a big deal in some regions of the Internet.  What I found interesting is that in the final Exhibition Game between the Vikes and the Titans, someone threw a lime-green dildo onto the field.  The Phallus Felonious made it from the WNBA all the way to the NFL.

As we enter the final week of preparation for the NFL regular season, two of the three major contract kerfuffles have been resolved.

1. Terry McLauren got an extension that was to his satisfaction from the Commanders.  Amazingly, his ankle injury that had him on the PUP List was also resolved and he began practicing with the tea.
2. Trey Hendrickson did not get a long-term extension but according to reports he got his 2025 salary doubled.

The other major contract kerfuffle between Micah Parsons and the Cowboys – – specifically Jerry Jones – – continued as a stalemate until yesterday.  The Cowboys traded Parsons to the Packers and Jones is treating this as a victory for his way of dealing with star players.  You can read about how this matter became cantankerous in a dozen places; I won’t repeat it all here but here is the trade itself

• Packers get Micah Parsons – – and Parsons gets a 4-year contract worth $180M with $120M guaranteed.
• Cowboys get two first round picks – – in 2026 and 2027 – – and DT Kenny Clark.

I’m not sure I would characterize this ending as a win for Jones and the Cowboys …

The NFL has several minor rule changes to go into effect this year and one rule change that is more significant.  It involves the rules for regular season Overtime Games, and it blends the regular season OT concept with the playoff/Super Bowl OT concept.  You can find the rule book prose here; I’ll try to summarize it here.

• Both teams must have a chance to possess the ball in OT – – unless there is a defensive score on the first possession.
• OT is still limited to 10 minutes so another exception to the concept that both teams must have a possession would be if the team that gets the ball first still has possession after 10 minutes of game time has elapsed.  That game would end as a tie.

The 10-minute limitation is in force as a tip of the hat to “player safety initiatives” by the league.  Frankly, the more relevant way to handle regular season overtimes is to eliminate them entirely and accept tie games as part of the team records.  Whatever …

There are no NFL games this week so let me review the “Betting Bundle” of college games and then let me propose two Money Line Parlays for this week:

• UNLV/Sam Houston St. OVER 61
• LSU/Clemson UNDER 57.5
• Alabama – 13.5 against Florida St.

            And Money Line Parlays:

• Georgia Tech @ minus-180
• Maryland @ minus-500
• Mississippi St. @ minus-460   $100 wager to win $128

And just for fun, here is a themed parlay – – all the selections have military names

• Army (The Cadets)  @ minus 475
• UMass (Minutemen) @ +108
• Tennessee (Volunteers) @ minus 480   $100 wager to win $204

Finally, this from Ara Parseghian:

“The game is not won by a pep talk on Saturday. It’s won by preparation of your club from Monday until game time. If they’re not ready on Saturday, you’re not going to get them ready by trying to inspire them with a dog-eat-dog sermon on that day.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Twice this week, I have offered general commentary on the upcoming NFL regular season and made some general prognostications.  Those two rants provide plenty of opportunities to embarrass myself when the post-mortem time comes around in early 2026.  Undaunted, I will now go deeper into the thicket of predicting the future by suggesting the final regular season record for each and every NFL squad.  I feel like the guy who just emerged from the steam room after a half hour of sweating out bodily toxins and is now poised over the cold plunge pool knowing what comes next …

So, let me lead off with the AFC West.  I think this is going to be the toughest division in the league this year and that is not meant to diminish the strength of other divisions; I just think there are not going to be a lot of walkovers in the division contests this year.  The AFC West teams will face the NFC East teams this year as part of the normal schedule rotation providing even more difficult games; the only “saving grace” from the schedule is that the West teams draw the AFC South teams as in conference rivals for 2025.  I say the division cumulative record for 2025 will be 40-28-0.

• Chargers – – 12-5-0:  That is correct; I am picking the Chargers to overthrow the 9-year hegemony of the Chiefs in the AFC West.  I think the weakness for the Chargers is at WR; Ladd McConkey is very good, and Mike Williams is acceptable as WRs – – but there is nothing else that looks scary on the depth chart.  The Chargers and Chiefs will open the season in Brazil this year and will then meet again in Week 15; the “Brazil Game” counts as a home game for the Chargers so a fast start matters.
• Chiefs – – 11-6-0:  I see the Chiefs “dropping off” in 2025 from their 15-2-0 record last year to a level that most teams can only aspire too.  The combination of “Super Bowl Loser Syndrome” with what looks to me like a mediocre offensive line leads me to this prediction.  By the way, if you are a Chiefs hater, you might be unhappy with the Prime Time and Solo time broadcast slots afforded to the Chiefs:
  • Sao Paolo Game – Solo slot
  • Thanksgiving Game – – Solo slot
  • Christmas Game – – Solo slot
  • Thursday Night Football – – One time
  • Monday Night Football – – Two times
  • Sunday Night Football – – Three times
• Broncos – – 10-7-0:  The Broncos have the makings of a dominant defense and while Bo Nix is not as physically gifted as either Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert, he is a very underrated QB presence on the field.  The Broncos finished third in the AFC West last year and yet they had the best point differential in the division.
• Raiders – – 7-10-0:  After finishing 4-13-0 in 2024 and playing in what I think is the toughest division in the league, my prediction represents a significant change of fortune for the Raiders’ franchise.  Pete Carroll will be 74 years old this calendar year; he is not the “long-term solution” to the Raiders’ woes in recent years, but he is the sort of coach/leader who can stabilize matters and get things headed in the right direction.  Raiders’ fans need to hope that Mark Davis can secure a solid successor to Carroll a couple of years from now.  In the present, the Raiders’ fans can enjoy the stylings of Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty on offense and Maxx Crosby on defense.

Next up is the AFC South.  If someone were to ask me to summarize the AFC South in a single word, the word would be “ Meh!”  I don’t see the top teams from last year breaking out into the elite levels of the league and I see the bottom teams improving slightly to give the division race a closeness that will attract attention.  Other than that, …?  I say the division cumulative record for 2025 will be 31-37-0.

• Texans – – 9-8-0:  Nico Collins has to stay healthy for 17 games this year and one of the rookies the Texans drafted at WR has to show that he can be a #2 WR.  In addition, the OL has to improve a lot from 2024; CJ Stroud was sacked 54 times last year.  Behind Stroud on the depth chart are:
  • Davis “General” Mills
  • Graham “Not Fred” Mertz
• DeMeco Ryans has changed the image of the Texans’ franchise from a laughingstock to solidarity.  But even that solid defense in Houston would not compensate for the loss of either Collins or Stroud.
• Colts – – 8-9-0:  The QB confusion continues in Indy; they are starting their eighth different QB in Week 1 for the eighth strait season.  The schedule is daunting with the AFC West and the NFC West on tap.  Maybe this record is too optimistic?
• Jags – – 8-9-0:  New Jags’ coach, Liam Coen, had a top-shelf season as the offensive coordinator with the Bucs last year.  The Bucs finished fourth in scoring in the NFL last year and finished third in Total Offense in the league.  If he brings that sort of offensive creativity to a team with Trevor Lawrence calling the shots, that could become a potent force in the division.  Again, the schedule is brutal, and it is not clear to me how the team will maximize the return for Travis Hunter.
• Titans – – 6-11-0:  I am not sold on Cam Ward as “the answer” at QB for the Titans but if he can avoid the brutally awful mistakes made by last year’s QBs, the team will improve.  Will it be enough to maintain some stability in the team?  The Titans have a BYE Week in Week 10; the team had better be 3-6-0 or better at that point or there might be coaching/Front Office upheaval in mid-stream.

From the mediocrity on display in the AFC South, let me move on to the AFC North where there are three tough teams and a weak-sister.  However, that weak-sister has a blue chip defense that can make things difficult for opponents.  This will be another close divisional race that will keep everyone’s attention through Week 18 when the Ravens/Steelers and the Bengals/Browns are on the schedule.  I say the division cumulative record for 2025 will be 34-34-0.

• Ravens – – 11-6-0:  The early schedule is difficult;
  • At Bills
  • Browns
  • Lions
  • At Chiefs
  • Texans
  • Rams
  • BYE WEEK
• Later the opponents are not quite as formidable in sequence, but the Ravens are on the road more late in the season.  Lost in the fact that Saquon Barkley ran for 2000+ yards in 2024 is the fact that Derrick Henry averaged 5.9 yards per carry last season – – and he’s back this year.
• Bengals – – 10-7-0:  Management came to its senses and recognized that the Bengals’ porous defense would not be improved by trading Trey Hendrickson away; he is now signed for 2025.  Also, the Bengals took DE, Shemar Stewart as their first pick in the Draft in April and eventually got him signed after a protracted struggle; maybe he can make the Bengals’ defense “acceptable” this year because it was not in 2024 when it gave up 28 points per game.
• Steelers – – 8-9-0:  Yes, I am predicting the first losing season for Mike Tomlin during his tenure in Pittsburgh.  I don’t think Aaron Rodgers has nearly enough offensive talent around him to allow him – – at age 41 – – to excel on the basis of his wits and guile.  The defense will be – – well – – “Steeler-like” meaning lots of close games.
• Browns – – 5-12-0:  The schedule-maker did the Browns no favors in the early part of the season.  The first 6 weeks are:
  • Bengals
  • At Ravens
  • Packers
  • At Lions
  • Vikes (Game is in London)
  • At Steelers
• After that, the Browns draw the Dolphins at the Pats and at the Jets who – – by comparison – – are less fearsome opponents.

Next  up will be the AFC East.  The fairy tale of the “Three Little Pigs” sort of applies here; the Bills are the “Big, Bad Wolf” and the other teams are in danger when in the presence of the “Big Bad Wolf”.  In the fairy tale, the Pigs find refuge in a brick house; I don’t know that I can spot a brick mason anywhere in the area who might “save their bacon” so to speak.  I say the division cumulative record in 2025 will be 32-36-0.

• Bills – – 11-6-0:  The schedule here is relatively soft; after facing the Ravens in Week 1, the Bills will next see a playoff team from last year in Week 9 (Chiefs).  If I had more confidence in the Bills’ defense, I would have them at 13 or 14 wins – – but I don’t have much confidence there.
• Dolphins – – 8-9-0:  The Dolphins have some offensive weapons when Tua Tagovailoa is upright and on his game.  That is how the team is going to win 8 games because the defense is nothing to write home about.
• Pats – — 7-10-0:  Patriots’ fans who yearn for a return to the team’s dynastic ways should take heart that 7 wins in 2025 would be a 75% increase over the win total in both 2023 and 2024.  In fact, the Pats were not favored in a single game last season; that is pretty close to rock bottom.  Just as I expect Pete Carroll to make a positive difference in Las Vegas, I expect Mike Vrabel to field a different sort of team in New England from what fans saw last season.  I like Drake Maye as a developing QB; I like the RBs; Hunter Henry is an acceptable TE; I wish the Pats had something more fearsome at WR than soon-to-be-32-years-old, Stefon Diggs.
• Jets – – 6-11-0:  Here is what I think will be interesting about the Jets’ season.  I think Aaron Glenn has the makings of a good head coach, but he may be in the wrong job at the wrong time.  He is a defensive minded coach; he played defense and he “earned his stripes’ as the Lions’ defensive coordinator over the past couple of seasons.  The Jets’ shortcomings are not on defense; while the defensive unit is not stellar, the team problems center on the offensive side of the ball.  Generally, defensive coordinators who elevate to head coaches do not elevate the team offense too much.

            Moving over to the NFC, will begin with the NFC West which, I think, will be a tough and a surprising division in 2025.  I say the division cumulative record in 2025 will be 36-32-0

• Cards – – 10-7-0:  That’s right; I am predicting that the Western Division in both conferences will produce surprising champions this year.  The Cards won 8 games last year but that was double what they won in 2023; the momentum is there.  And if Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Trey McBride continue their development, the Cards are going to be a tough out.  The final 6 weeks of the schedule will be a test of the team’s mettle:
  • At Bucs
  • Rams
  • At Texans
  • Falcons
  • At Bengals
  • At Rams
• Rams – – 9-8-0:  If Matthew Stafford’s back heals itself, the Rams could blow by this prediction in mid-December, but I am leery of the time it has taken for him to be able to “fully participate” in practices.  At age 37, a “re-injury” could be very problematic for the Rams.  Can the Rams import healing waters from Lourdes – – or would the imposed tariffs be too great?
• Niners – – 9-8-0:  The team is not starting the season in good health and that is rarely a good NFL omen.  The Niners face each of their three division opponents in the first 5 weeks of the schedule.  Early or not in the season, those will be important games.
• Seahawks – – 8-9-0:  This team is a huge enigma, and the core of the uncertainty is named Sam Darnold.  He was great in 2024; if he had played like that for all those years between his Draft year (2018) and now, he would be thought of as a likely Hall of Fame QB.  No one – except for his nuclear family – thinks of him in those terms now.  So, what flavor of the “Sam Darnold Experience” does he have on tap for us NFL watchers?  Can he lead them to 14 wins the same way he did with the Vikes last year  scoring 24 points per game?  Or will he revert to earlier times when he had home fans boo him off the field?

            Next up shall be the NFC South.  In college football, teams from the “South” tend to be among the best in the country.  In NFL football, the two South Divisions are the weak sisters in their conferences.  In science we have conservation laws – – mass, angular momentum, energy – – and maybe there is a football law involving the “Conservation of Excellence” which explains the imbalance of “South teams” in college and pro football?  Probably not …  I say the division cumulative record in 2025 will be 27-41-0.

• Bucs – – 10-7-0:  The Bucs averaged 29.5 points per game last year; that productivity earned their Offensive Coordinator a head coaching job this season.  So, can the Bucs do something like that again under different tutelage?  Another important variable here is the status of OT, Tristan Wirfs and WR Chris Goodwin.  Both suffered injuries last season, and both spent all of Training Camp until this week on the Physically Unable to Perform List.  The Bucs need both of them in “healthy status” for the year.
• Falcons – – 8-9-0:  Someone in NFL HQs or at the networks must think a lot more highly about the Falcons than I do.  The Falcons will be on Sunday Night Football twice and on Monday Night Football twice and on Thursday Night Football once and will have a solo TV time slot when they play the Colts in Berlin.  That sort of exposure is not usually afforded to teams that went 8-9-0 in the previous season.  Week 1 has the Falcons and the Bucs starting the season in Atlanta; that is another early season division game that could have significant implications later in the season.
• Panthers – – 6-11-0:  I realize that I am not showing the Panthers a lot of respect with that prediction, but that team allowed 534 points last season.  If this year’s team shaves 100 points off that total from last year, it might still be in the bottom half of the league.
• Saints – – 3-14-0:  The only interesting thing to me about the Saints’ season is this:
  • OVER/UNDER when the grocery bags adorn fans’ heads with the label “’Aints”?
  • I say Week 5 at home against the Giants with the Saints 0-4 at kickoff.
• My prediction of only 3 wins could well be in doubt until very late in the season.  Here is the Saints’ schedule in Weeks 15-17:
  • Panthers
  • Jets
  • At Titans

It is time now for a look at the NFC North.  Last year, this was a brutally difficult division with three teams winning 11 games or more.  The Packers finished at 11-6-0 putting them a distant third in the NFC North; that same 11-6-0 record would have won three other divisions in the NFL in 2024.  I do not see anything similar happening this year partly because the schedule is very difficult with the NFC East teams and the AFC North teams on tap in 2025.  I say the divisional cumulative record in 2025 will be 35-33-0.

• Packers – – 10-7-0:  The Packers start the season against the Lions and Commanders.  The Packers close out the season against the Ravens and the Vikes.  And the stuff in between looks pretty difficult.   I think that rookie WR, Matthew Golden (Texas) could be an important addition to the Packers’ offense as a speed receiver.
• Lions – – 10-7-0:  I attribute this drop off in wins to the coaching brain-drain from the offseason.  The Lions lost both coordinators and two other assistant coaches.  All respect to Dan Campbell here, but that is a lot of change to accommodate all at once.  I am glad to see a throwback game on the schedule this year.  On Thanksgiving Day, the Lions will host the Packers.  That was always the matchup way back when and it should be a good way to get my tummy ready for the feast to follow.
• Vikes – – 8-9-0:  As I noted when discussing the Seahawks, the Vikes were the recipients of Sam Darnold’s “To Date Career Year” in 2024.  I know that the coaching staff is more than just sold on JJ McCarthy as the team leader, but the fact is that he has never taken a real snap in a real NFL game, and the Vikes have a hugely difficult schedule.  The Vikes’ defense added Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave to the DL and that should make a strong unit even better.
• Bears – – 7-10-0:  Bears’ fans seem to be even more optimistic than usual for the 2025 season because they believe that Ben Johnson has some sort of magic elixir that he will share with Caleb Williams thereby launching the Bears into the playoffs poised to “make a run”.  I don’t subscribe to that newsletter, but I do think the Bears will improve on their 5-12-0 record from last year.  The Bears’ game in Week 6 is at the Commanders.  Last year, the Bears visited Washington around the same time in the season and had the game won until a Hail Mary pass was completed to turn the Commanders’ season in a positive direction and to send the Bears on a long journey to nowhere.  Get set to see replays of that Hail Mary completion at least a bazillion times in that week.

            Last – but certainly not least – I need to read the tea leaves from the NFC East.  The schedules for these teams are all difficult; the NFC East teams get to play the NFC North teams and the AFC West teams.  Oh joy …  I see a much more compact final standing for this division in 2025 and much of that is due to the grinding of the schedule on these rosters.  I say the division cumulative record for 2025 will be 36-32-0.

• Eagles – – 12-5-0:  Philly fans will call me a hater; I am not.  The Eagles deserve every accolade based on their performance in 2024 and then throughout the playoffs.  However, Saquon Barkley is not going to rush for 2000+ yards again in 2025; fans should be thrilled if he gets to 1500 yards.  The team lost its Offensive Coordinator to a head coaching gig.  The schedule starts out difficult:
  • Cowboys – – big rivalry game
  • At Chiefs – – Super Bowl rematch
  • Rams – – playoff team last year
  • At Bucs – – playoff team last year
  • Broncos – – a team on the upswing
• The schedule also ends with difficulty in Weeks 16-18:
  • At Commanders
  • At Bills  – and won’t the weather for that game be a blessing…
  • Commanders
• And don’t forget that the Eagles lost about a half-dozen defensive players who were significant contributors last season.
• Commanders – – 10-7-0:  Commanders’ fans will call me a hater; I am not.  The Commanders were 8-1 in one-score games in 2024; that is a difficult thing to sustain.  The Commanders’ defense is like a  yo-yo from game to game and even from half-game to half-game.  The offense should be very good – – assuming that the young running backs live up to their pre-season hype.  Jayden Daniels is the real deal, but he may experience a small regression this year because defensive coordinators around the league have had months to check him out; no one had that sort of luxury last year.
• Cowboys – – 8-9-0:  The addition of Geroge Pickens is a plus for the offense and for Cee Dee Lamb specifically.  The array of RBs on the depth chart is pretty bland – – but it is better than what was there last year; and Dak Prescott is back to play QB.  That’s the good news.  The not nearly as good news is that the Cowboys defense was awful in 2024 giving up 468 points – – only the Panthers were worse (see above).  I keep looking at the Cowboys’ depth chart for some standout defenders that have been added over the offseason.  If you find any, please let me know.  Here is a particularly rough schedule stretch for the Cowboys in Weeks 12-17:
  • Eagles
  • Chiefs
  • At Lions
  • Vikes
  • Chargers
  • At Commanders
• Giants – – 6-11-0:  The Giants’ BYE Week is in Week 14.  If the Giants are 2-11-0 at that point, Brian Daboll will be fired.  Looking at the schedule, there are only 3 games where the Giants could be favored in the first 13 weeks.  This team needs to overachieve early in the season to keep the season from becoming a cataclysm.

            So, here is the playoff lineup as I see it now for the AFC:

1. Chargers – – BYE Week and Home Field
2. Bills
3. Ravens
4. Texans
5. Chiefs
6. Broncos – – they host the Bengals in Week 4 and win the tie-breaker that night

And here is the playoff lineup as I see it now for the NFC:

1. Eagles – – BYE Week and Home Field
2. Packers – – Division winners via tie-breaker with the Lions
3. Cards
4. Bucs
5. Commanders
6. Lions

As always, I will not let these predictions and comments fade into oblivion; they will be exposed for what they are in Jan/Feb 2026.

I’ll close with this most appropriate comment from Lao Tzu:

“Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Today will be the second aliquot of the all-too-large NFL Pre-Season Analysis that I have presented in previous years.  This will be a league overview, and it will give me another day or two to finish up my last installation here – – the final records for all the teams in the regular season.

I think this season will be an acid test for a few teams/players in addition to the coaches that I suggested would be on a hot seat this year.  In no particular order:

• Colts:  They have been stuck in “middle moose mode” ever since Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement announcement and have not been able to get their QB situation stabilized.  This will be the eighth consecutive year they have a new starting QB for Game 1.  They have never been high enough in the Draft to get a real good prospect and have reached for players like Anthony Richardson who lost the starting job this year to Daniel Jones who is – – face it – – a retread.  If the Colts finish 9-8 or worse and miss the playoffs, they could easily decide to fire the coach; they should also fire the GM who has been there longer than the coach.
• Giants:  I put them here because I mentioned Daniel Jones above.  Ever since the disappearance of Eli Manning from the roster, the Giants’ QBs have been “ordinary at best”.  Truth be told, Daniel Jones was the best of the lot, and he was unceremoniously cast aside last year.  Let me refresh your memory here with Giants starting QBs in addition to Daniel Jones since 2019:
  • • Colt McCoy
    • Mike Glennon
    • Jake Fromm
    • Davis Webb
    • Tommy DeVito
    • Tyrod Taylor
    • Drew Lock

Now imagine if you will the agita that would prevail in the Giants’ fanbase if Daniel Jones shows up in Indy and produces a Pro Bowl season that leads the Colts to the playoffs.  There might not be enough Pepto Bismol east of the Mississippi to cure that burning sensation…

• Dolphins:  They signed up Tua Tagovailoa to a contract worth more than $200M and it would seem that the team might like to know how that is going to work out.  When things are right, Tua is very good; things are not always right, however; and Tua has had a propensity for injury.
• Cards:  Believe it or not, Kyler Murray has been in the NFL for 6 years already.  Last year, the Cards went from 4 wins in 2023 to 8 wins in 2024.  Might this be the year when Kyler Murray demonstrates that he has become a “plus selection” as the overall #1 pick back in 2019?
• Niners:  This team under Kyle Shanahan is the football incarnation of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.  In the 8 seasons under Shanahan, the Niners have posted double-digit wins 4 times and been to the Super Bowl twice.  In those same 8 seasons, the team has finished with 6 wins three times and with 4 wins the other time.  As they used to say on the very old daytime TV game show, To Tell the Truth:
  • • “Will the real SF 49ers please stand up?”
• The championship window for the Niners seems to be closing.  The Niners are long in the tooth with George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey poised on a precipice with Father Time nudging them forward.  McCaffrey has had difficulty staying healthy recently and Kittle will be 32 years old in October.  Brandon Aiyuk may not be available until mid-season; Deebo Samuel was traded away, Kyle Juszczyk is 34 years old, and Trent Williams just turned 37.

It is that time of year when lots of folks are looking ahead to the NFL regular season thereby starting a generic narrative for the season.  As the drumbeats get louder and more rhythmic, it always. seems as if certain teams either acquire popular momentum or lose it entirely.  At this point in the run-up to the regular season, I think there are a few overrated teams and a few underrated teams in the generic narrative.

I’ll start with three teams that might be OVERRATED:

1. Bills:  Let me be clear, I totally expect them to win the AFC East.  My sense is that a lot of commentators have them penciled in for the AFC Championship Game at least for this season and I’m not nearly as convinced that the Bills are that much better than other AFC teams.  On the positive side, the Bills finally signed James Cook to a long-term extension giving them a running threat to keep defenses honest.  My question is with the Bills’ defense, which was not great last year giving up 22 points per game.  Folks did not pay much attention to that because the Bills’ offense scored 31 points per game.  But I don’t see a big step forward for the Bills’ defense this year and the fact that they will not have 2 of their DTs available for the first 6 games – – league suspension – – makes me wonder a bit.
2. Lions:  Again, do not misinterpret here; I do not think the Lions will fall apart. I do think that the fact that they won 15 games last year has clouded the vision of some prognosticators; the Lions are not likely to do that again this year and it has nothing to do with personnel.  The Lions lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs over the offseason – – Ben Johnson is in Chicago and Aaron Glenn is in NYC.  That is non-trivial; the last time that happened it was to the Eagles after they went to the Super Bowl in 2022 and lost there to the Chiefs.  Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon got head coaching gigs and the Eagles in 2023 bore no resemblance to the team that showed up in 2022.
3. Bengals:  Everyone looks at the triumvirate of Joe Burrow/JaMar Chase/Tee Higgins and concludes that they will score points galore; in fact, those guys scored 28 points per game in 2024.  And yet, the Bengals finished at 9-8-0 with that offensive output.  Therein lies the rub; in order to win in the NFL, it behooves the defensive unit to stop somebody some of the time.  The Bengals did not do that last year, and I don’t think they added any Hall of Fame quality players to that  unit in the offseason.  There is too much love being piped into Cincy for my taste.

            I only have two teams that I consider UNDERRATED at this point in the generic narrative.  I realize my failure to have a third one on hand puts the symmetry of the universe at risk, but I’ll take the chance:

1. Cowboys:  They were 7-10-0 last year which is hardly a reason to be excited for this year.  But the Cowboys played much of last year with Cooper Rush at QB and with a sub-par running game.  This year Dak Prescott will be back from injury and even Cowboy-haters must acknowledge that Prescott is a significant step up in class at the position.  Moreover, the Cowboys’ acquisition of George Pickens gives them a WR tandem that could be Top-5 in the league – – if the team can find a way to keep Pickens focused on football and not on any excursions to La-La-Land. I am confident that Jerry Jones, Micah Parsons and Micah Parsons’ agent will find a way to “kiss and make up” after all the bluster in recent weeks surrounding Parsons’ desire for a contract extension and Jones’ “intransigence”.
2. Chargers:  Here is a foreshadowing for a couple of days from now; I think the Chargers are going to win the AFC West.  Jim Harbaugh may not be my favorite hominid on Planet Earth, but he can coach football, and he likes to assemble a team that is bigger than the opponents so that he can bludgeon the opponents.  Last year, the Chargers’ running game bludgeoned no one; this year they have Najee Harris and rookie Omarion Hampton to run the ball, and both seem to seek out someone with the other color jersey to run into or over.  Justin Herbert will benefit from that kind of attacking run offense and I think the Chargers are going to be better in 2025 than they were in 2024 when they went 11-6-0

            In about half of the NFL seasons, one of the teams that finished last in its division the previous year rises up and wins the division the next year.  This is called a Worst-To-First season.  So, I want to take a look and see which bottom-feeder from 2024 might be a division winner in 2025:

• AFC East – Pats:  They were 4-13-0 last year and will likely be much improved in 2025.  However, they will not overtake the Bills.
• AFC North – Browns:  Love their defense but that is not good enough to get them to the top of a tough division.
• AFC South – Titans:  I know they have the overall #1 pick to play QB for them, but I was not over-the-moon excited about him back on Draft Day.  Not happening …
• AFC West – Raiders:  With Pete Carroll in charge – – and with Tom Brady able to chime in periodically – – at least there is adult supervision for the team which has not necessarily been the case recently.  Nonetheless, the Raiders are not winning that division in 2025.
• NFC East – Giants:  They will be better than 3-14-0 this year – – but not nearly good enough to win this division.
• NFC North – Bears:  Is Caleb Williams as advertised?  If so, the Bears should be significantly better in 2025 than the 5-12-0 team that hit the field in 2024.  However, they have 3 powerhouse teams ahead of them in that division …
• NFC South – Saints/Panthers:  Both teams finished 5-12-0; I think the Saints are going to be a strong contender for the overall #1 pick in the 2026 Draft and not be a contender in the division.  The Panthers could be an interesting “Worst-To First” candidate if they find a way to shore up their defense which gave up 31.4 points per game in 2024.
• NFC West – Niners:  I think they are getting more love than they should – – but in terms of a last place finisher from last year having the potential to put together a winning season this year, I think the Niners are the best bet on the board.

            Since I worried about upsetting the symmetry of the universe above, let me do a little repair work here.  Since others look for teams that may go Worst-To-First, let me try to find a candidate that will go First-to-Worst in its division:

• AFC East – Bills:  I think the Bills are going to repeat as the division winners for the sixth straight year in 2025; so, cross them off this list.
• AFC North – Ravens:  It would be the Cinderella Story of the decade in sports if Joe Flacco led the Browns from the cellar of the division to have them dethrone a Ravens’ squad that self-immolated and fell to the bottom.  However, you are more likely to find a green unicorn that farts rainbows than to find this in the NFL standings in January 2026.
• AFC South – Texans:  If CJ Stroud were to turn into a pumpkin …  Even so, it is hard to imagine the Texans falling below the Titans and the Jags…
• AFC West – Chiefs:  I think the Chiefs will suffer “Super Bowl Loser Syndrome” this year and will not come close to winning 15 games again in 2025, but they are not going to finish last in the AFC West.
• NFC East – Eagles:  Expect them to come back to the pack this year; the schedule is brutal – – but I don’t see them falling behind the Cowboys and the Giants.
• NFC North – Lions:  As noted above, I expect regression here and as intimated above, the Bears might be on the improve.  And the Vikes/Packers are both good teams …  Not to worry, I am not going to talk myself into that prediction.
• NFC  South – Bucs:  Bucs have won the division 4 years in a row even though their cumulative record in the last three seasons is a measly 27-24.  They lost their offensive coordinator to a head coaching job in their division.  The Bucs have survived on their tightrope in the past; can they do it again?
• NFC West – Rams:  This could be a very tight division if the Niners come on as many people think they will.  And Matthew Stafford has been nursing a bad back all through Training Camp.  Jimmy G. is a competent back-up there – – but the operative word is “back-up”.  I think the Rams are the most vulnerable of the division winners for the upcoming season.

            That concludes my synoptic view of the upcoming NFL season; it will be subject to post-mortem analysis and evaluation about 5 months from now.

Finally, this observation by the French author, Paul Valery seems an appropriate way to end today:

“The folly of mistaking a paradox for a discovery, a metaphor for a proof, a torrent of verbiage for a spring of capital truths, and oneself for an oracle, is inborn in us.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

If you look at the MLB standings as of this morning, your attention must be drawn to the two Western Division races.  The top two teams there – – Dodgers/Padres and Astros/Mariners – – are in a virtual dead heat.  However, there is another division race that could become very interesting over the next several weeks; I speak here of the NL East.  For the moment, the Phillies lead the division by 6 games over the Mets.

Moreover, the Mets have been in a tailspin; back at the beginning of August, the Mets were leading the NL East and here they are 6 games back at the end of the month.  However, the schedule might be set up for the Mets to make a run.

• Last night the Mets led off a three-game series in Philly winning 13-3 cutting the lead to the 6-game mark as of this morning.
• After two more games in Philly this week, the two teams meet again for a 4-game series in NY starting September 8^th – – just 12 days from now.
• In 7 games head-to-head between the Mets and the Phillies this season, the Mets lead the series 5 games to 2.
• In addition to the six games against the Mets, the Phillies other opponents include Brewers (3 games), Dodgers (3 games) and the D-Backs (3 games).

This schedule situation comes on the heels of some seriously bad news for the Phillies’ pitching staff.  Last week it was reported that Phillies’ ace Zack Wheeler had a blood clot in his throwing shoulder.  Subsequent tests and diagnosis revealed that surgery would be needed on that shoulder to alleviate venous thoracic outlet syndrome.  Any folks reading this who have medical training of any kind should go and get a cup of coffee for the next couple of paragraphs as I explain what I think venous thoracic outlet syndrome is:

1. In some people, the muscles – or even a bone sometimes – can apply pressure to veins in the shoulder area that restrict the blood flow there causing clotting.
2. People who use their arms in repetitive motion are significantly more prone to this condition than other folks – – consider swimmers, bowlers, baseball pitchers.
3. Estimated rehab time is 6-8 months, meaning Wheeler is out for the rest of the MLB regular season and the playoffs.

One report I read said that pitchers who have to undergo this type of procedure have an 80% recovery rate.  That is good news for Phillies’ fans.  Let me offer one word of caution here:

• Remember, I come to you from “Curmudgeon Central” and not “Palazzo Pessimismo”; nevertheless, this is the surgery that ended the career of Stephen Strasbourg about 5 years ago.
• Obviously, I hope Zack Wheeler comes back from his rehab regimen in the 8-month window and can start for the Phillies on Opening Day 2026.
• However, …

Moving on …  I spent some time yesterday watching part of the final Exhibition Game between the Rams and the Browns.  I was interested because reports said that Shedeur Sanders had “struggled” in the game and that he might lose his place on the Browns’ roster as a result.

Sanders did indeed struggle; here is his stat line for the game:

• 3 of 6 for 14 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs

He also took a huge sack on a play where he needed to throw the ball out of bounds because he had three pursuers and had no chance of escaping them.  I don’t know that he jeopardized his roster spot with his performance last weekend – – we’ll know that later today as cutdowns are coming – – but I came away with the conclusion that I was right back in April when I said this about my assessment of Shedeur Sanders as a QB prospect:

“Shedeur Sanders – Colorado:  Most folks have him as the second QB off the board.  My comments were ‘very accurate on short passes’ and ‘plays the screen game well’ and ‘far less athletic than his genetics would imply’.  He will go in the first round, but I think he is ‘a project – not a Day One Starter’.

Obviously, I got the “Round One” part wrong, but as for the rest, I think it is correct.  Some folks have argued that there was some sort of conspiratorial activity back in the Draft that dropped Sanders to the 5^th round before he was picked and then others – – or maybe the same conspiracy theorists using a different nom de guerre – – were sure that Browns’ coach Kevin Stefanski was intentionally trying to make Sanders look bad because he only let him play with the third and fourth stringers in the Browns’ camp.

I think all of that is unadulterated Balderdash.  Shedeur Sanders is not a stiff; he is not someone whose only claim to fame is his father’s accomplishments.  He may some day become a good NFL QB – – but that day is not likely to be in 2025 or even 2026.  I think he needs to learn how to play QB from the pocket and how to give up on a play when that play is blown up by the defense.  He did not do those things when I watched him at Colorado, and he will have to learn to do those things if he hopes to hone his skills and become an NFL starter.

This may be a level of humiliation that is beyond tolerance, but I think Shedeur Sanders would benefit greatly from a season in the UFL.  It is too early for NFL teams to write him off, but he needs to play against competent-if not-great defenders to raise his own game skills.

Finally, having mentioned the surgery on Zack Wheeler above, let me observe that it does not fit the definition of “Minor Surgery”:

“Minor Surgery:  Any surgical procedure that is carried out on someone else.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………