The Sports Curmudgeon

About 30 years ago, they “invented” Casual Friday.  About 15  years ago, I “invented” Football Friday.  So, which do you prefer?

Last week, there was no “Betting Bundle” to review.  However:

• Money Line Parlay was a loss.
• Season Totals to date:  Record is 0-1  Profit/Loss = minus-$100

Linfield University did not have a game last week – – nor will it have a game next weekend – – so there is nothing to report on that front.

My 2025 “sleeper team” – – Georgia Tech – – did not play last week.  They will take on Colorado tonight.  Go Yellowjackets!

 

College Football Commentary:

 

If you think of the college football as a multi-course tasting menu, then last week was merely an amuse-bouche.  The festivities get underway seriously this week.  So, let me begin with some serious college football notes.

For quite a while now, there has been criticism of the SEC for playing fewer conference games than they possibly could each season.  The other Power Conferences play 9 conference games, and the SEC has played 8.  The impact and the importance of that discrepancy has been magnified beyond any logic that Aristotle would have understood; it had become a burr under the saddle for college football commentators.  Now it appears that the SEC will make the change to a 9-game conference schedule starting in 2026.

Trust me when I say that I picked these three SEC schools at random and then went to look up their 2025 out-of-conference opponents – – you know, the ones the coaches and the athletic directors select to provide the best entertainment value for the fans and supporters of the program.

1. Ole Miss will play Georgia St., Tulane, Washington St. and The Citadel
2. Tennessee will play Syracuse, East Tennessee St., UAB and New Mexico St.
3. Georgia will play Marshall, Austin Peay, UNC-Charlotte and Georgia Tech.

            Look at the 12 games on this year’s schedule listed above.  Georgia/Georgia Tech is a traditional rivalry game that goes back more than 100 years; other than that game, are any of the other eleven games even interesting?  I assert that is the criterion to use here because it is blatantly obvious that none of the eleven are important.

Some commentators have ascribed the SEC change of mind as being based in blunting an argument made by Big-10 schools to expand the CFP and change the way CFP slots would be assigned.  Perhaps that is the case; perhaps it is not; I don’t really care.  What I think is that more conference games and fewer “glorified scrimmages” makes for better entertainment and more intense fan engagement and all that is better for college football.

There is an added wrinkle in the upcoming SEC schedule change.  Starting next year, SEC schools will also need to schedule at least one of its out-of-conference opponents from one of the “Power 4 Conferences”.  That will not eliminate mismatches, but it will make for better matchups across the board.

So now, it is time to start a drumbeat for the other major conferences to reduce/minimize out-of-conference cupcake games.

1. Penn State will play Nevada, FIU and Villanova
2. Indiana will play Old Dominion, Kennesaw St. and Indiana St.
3. Oklahoma State will play Tennessee-Martin, Tulsa and UCF

If you look at those nine games on the calendar for this season, you will see there is still work to be done…

There will be some rule changes for college football in 2025.  There are dozens of changes on tap and if you want to stroll through all of them and try to understand how they will be applied and why they were considered in the first place, here is a link to – mostly – clear and concise explanations,

I will point out a couple here that I find either important or head-scratching:

• Feigning injuries:  If a player appears to be injured after the ball is spotted by officials, that team will be charged a timeout – – or a delay of game penalty if all the team’s timeouts have been used. Additionally, that player must remain out of the game for at least one down and cannot return to the game until receiving approval of professional medical personnel designated by their institution who have examined the injury.  This is obviously intended to curb faking injuries to effect unlimited timeouts late in games.  Administering this rule will not be easy and the recordkeeping needed to ensure no player returns without the proper medical approval will be burdensome for officials.
• Pre-snap movement:  Players within one yard of the line of scrimmage may not make “abrupt or exaggerated actions” that might be associated with the start of a play as a way to draw the offense offside or to create offensive illegal motion.  This should be relatively easy to enforce once an officiating team settles on what constitutes improper movements by the defenders and what is “normal”.
• Clear eye shields:  In the past, eye shields had to be clear; any sort of tint in the plastic was impermissible.  For reasons that elude me, the rules mavens now allowed manufacturers to submit examples of “nearly clear” face shields to the rules mavens for approved use in games.  An even more basic question here is why would there be such a rule?  If a player wanted to use a completely opaque eye shield and his coach allowed him to do something that stupid, why would the rulebook try to save him from himself?

            My “sleeper team” from last  year – – Nebraska – – opened its season last night with a win over Cincy by a score of 20-17.  Keep an eye on the Nebraska QB – Dylan Raiola.  He led the team to a bowl game last year as a true freshman and threw for almost 3000 yards in the season.  He is back with the Huskers and last night posted this stat line:

• 33 of 42 for 243  yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs
• Not bad for a kid who is only 20 years old.

            As some schools have chosen to move toward a more aggressive scheduling philosophy, those schools have seen that scheduling an attractive early season game can be a good way to get the program some national TV exposure.  It used to be that the first week or two of the college football season was an extension of training camp more times than not.  The blight of the “Blowout Game” has not been eradicated as witnessed by these spreads on games for this weekend.  There are more than the ones I listed here because I tried to limit the listing to games where the spread was more than 5 TDs:

• Western Illinois (+48) at Illinois
• Nevada (+45) at No. 2 Penn State (this game will be on CBS)
• Marshall (+39.5) at No. 5 Georgia (this game will be on ESPN)
• Illinois State (+35.5) at No. 18 Oklahoma
• New Mexico (+37) at No. 14 Michigan (this game will be on NBC)
• Georgia State (+38) at No. 21 Ole Miss (this game will be on SEC Network)

I don’t want to leave the impression that the first real week of the college football season is a bummer; it is not.  There are more than a handful of interesting and important games on the schedule, so, let’s take a look …

 

NCAA Games of Interest:

 

(Fri Nite) Auburn – 2 at Baylor (58):  In my College Football Pre-Season Analysis, I listed Auburn coach, Hugh Freeze, as a coach on a hot seat.  Now, his team opens on the road as a favorite against a Power 4 opponent who was 5-1 at home in 2024.

(Fri Nite) Georgia Tech – 4 at Colorado (51):  If experience counts for a lot in college football, my “sleeper team” has the edge here.  Tech returns its starting QB, Haynes King, and three starting offensive linemen; Colorado is adapting to life without Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders.

(Fri Nite) UNLV – 10 at Sam Houston St. (61):  UNLV won last week beating the fearsome Idaho State Bengals 38-31.  Idaho St racked up more than 500 yards on offense in the game meaning that UNLV’s potent offense will have to be on alert this year because the UNLV defense was exposed there to be “porous”.  Bettors took note; the Total Line here opened at 58 points and has risen all week; some books have the game at 61.5 and one book has it at 62 points.  I don’t like to make picks or bets early in the season, but I would take a flyer here on the OVER just because I think UNLV will score and UNLV will allow others to score.  Put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Ball St at Purdue – 17.5 (50):  Purdue was 1-11 last year; it not only lost games, but Purdue was also thoroughly outclassed most of the time.  And here they are a 17.5-point favorite?  Question:

• How bad do the oddsmakers think Ball St. is?

Temple – 1.5 at UMass (48):  This could have implications for the SHOE Tournament at the end of the season.

Texas at Ohio St. – 1.5 (47.5):  This is undoubtedly the Game of the Week.  This spread opened at 3 points; the movement to this level – – and there is one offshore sportsbook that has the game a 1 point – – means that there had to be a ton of “Texas money” placed on the game because Ohio St. fans are never bashful about backing their team with greenbacks.  Arch Manning will be on the field for Texas; Jeremiah Smith will be on the field for Ohio State.  That is a good thing because if those two players were on the same team, the spread in this game might be 3 TDs.

Alabama – 13.5 at Florida St. (50.5):  Let me go out on a limb here:

• Florida State will be better in 2025 than it was in 2024.

How can I be so sure?  The Seminoles were 2-10 last year; that is not a high bar to overcome.  Alabama was disappointing last year in that they were not in the semi-finals of the CFP which some Bama fans had come to believe was a birthright.  Alabama could well be invited to the CFP this year and I doubt that Florida St. is at a point where they are competitive at that level.  Even on the road I think Alabama will dominate here and cover the spread; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

LSU at Clemson – 4 (57.5):  Brian Kelly has never won an opening game in his time at LSU; is this the year he “breaks through”?  This is a face-off for two QBs who will get a lot of attention over the season.  Garrett Nussmeier is in charge for LSU while Cade Clubnik calls the shots for Clemson.  Here is an angle for the game:

• Clemson’s DL is considered to be one of the best in the country
• LSU will have 4 first time starters on the OL in this game

Here is one last flyer for the “Betting Bundle”; I like this game to stay UNDER 57.5.

(Sun Nite) Notre Dame – 2.5 at Miami (50):  Miami graduated Cam Ward from last  year’s squad and Notre Dame will be missing a half-dozen quality players from last year.  The winner of this game will hope to point to it down the line as a major contributor to its “Strength of Schedule”.  Definitely worth tuning in for this one …

(Mon Nite) TCU – 3 at UNC (56):  The spread opened with UNC as a 2-point favorite, so this represents a 5-point swing in the spread.  Meanwhile, the Total Line opened at 59 and has come down 3 points.  All that line movement could make the game an interesting one to watch but that pales in comparison to the fact that this is Bill Belichick’s college football debut as a head coach.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

This week has not been kind to the offspring of some Pro Football Hall of Fame players:

• Shedeur Sanders (son of Deion) – – third string QB on a QB-starved team
• Shiloh Sanders (son of Deion) – – cut by Bucs
• Terique Owens (son of Terrell) – – cut by the Niners
• Brenden Rice (son of Jerry) – – cut by Chargers

The Minnesota Vikings will have transgender women cheerleaders this year in addition to the cisgender women on the squad.  This is a big deal in some regions of the Internet.  What I found interesting is that in the final Exhibition Game between the Vikes and the Titans, someone threw a lime-green dildo onto the field.  The Phallus Felonious made it from the WNBA all the way to the NFL.

As we enter the final week of preparation for the NFL regular season, two of the three major contract kerfuffles have been resolved.

1. Terry McLauren got an extension that was to his satisfaction from the Commanders.  Amazingly, his ankle injury that had him on the PUP List was also resolved and he began practicing with the tea.
2. Trey Hendrickson did not get a long-term extension but according to reports he got his 2025 salary doubled.

The other major contract kerfuffle between Micah Parsons and the Cowboys – – specifically Jerry Jones – – continued as a stalemate until yesterday.  The Cowboys traded Parsons to the Packers and Jones is treating this as a victory for his way of dealing with star players.  You can read about how this matter became cantankerous in a dozen places; I won’t repeat it all here but here is the trade itself

• Packers get Micah Parsons – – and Parsons gets a 4-year contract worth $180M with $120M guaranteed.
• Cowboys get two first round picks – – in 2026 and 2027 – – and DT Kenny Clark.

I’m not sure I would characterize this ending as a win for Jones and the Cowboys …

The NFL has several minor rule changes to go into effect this year and one rule change that is more significant.  It involves the rules for regular season Overtime Games, and it blends the regular season OT concept with the playoff/Super Bowl OT concept.  You can find the rule book prose here; I’ll try to summarize it here.

• Both teams must have a chance to possess the ball in OT – – unless there is a defensive score on the first possession.
• OT is still limited to 10 minutes so another exception to the concept that both teams must have a possession would be if the team that gets the ball first still has possession after 10 minutes of game time has elapsed.  That game would end as a tie.

The 10-minute limitation is in force as a tip of the hat to “player safety initiatives” by the league.  Frankly, the more relevant way to handle regular season overtimes is to eliminate them entirely and accept tie games as part of the team records.  Whatever …

There are no NFL games this week so let me review the “Betting Bundle” of college games and then let me propose two Money Line Parlays for this week:

• UNLV/Sam Houston St. OVER 61
• LSU/Clemson UNDER 57.5
• Alabama – 13.5 against Florida St.

            And Money Line Parlays:

• Georgia Tech @ minus-180
• Maryland @ minus-500
• Mississippi St. @ minus-460   $100 wager to win $128

And just for fun, here is a themed parlay – – all the selections have military names

• Army (The Cadets)  @ minus 475
• UMass (Minutemen) @ +108
• Tennessee (Volunteers) @ minus 480   $100 wager to win $204

Finally, this from Ara Parseghian:

“The game is not won by a pep talk on Saturday. It’s won by preparation of your club from Monday until game time. If they’re not ready on Saturday, you’re not going to get them ready by trying to inspire them with a dog-eat-dog sermon on that day.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Twice this week, I have offered general commentary on the upcoming NFL regular season and made some general prognostications.  Those two rants provide plenty of opportunities to embarrass myself when the post-mortem time comes around in early 2026.  Undaunted, I will now go deeper into the thicket of predicting the future by suggesting the final regular season record for each and every NFL squad.  I feel like the guy who just emerged from the steam room after a half hour of sweating out bodily toxins and is now poised over the cold plunge pool knowing what comes next …

So, let me lead off with the AFC West.  I think this is going to be the toughest division in the league this year and that is not meant to diminish the strength of other divisions; I just think there are not going to be a lot of walkovers in the division contests this year.  The AFC West teams will face the NFC East teams this year as part of the normal schedule rotation providing even more difficult games; the only “saving grace” from the schedule is that the West teams draw the AFC South teams as in conference rivals for 2025.  I say the division cumulative record for 2025 will be 40-28-0.

• Chargers – – 12-5-0:  That is correct; I am picking the Chargers to overthrow the 9-year hegemony of the Chiefs in the AFC West.  I think the weakness for the Chargers is at WR; Ladd McConkey is very good, and Mike Williams is acceptable as WRs – – but there is nothing else that looks scary on the depth chart.  The Chargers and Chiefs will open the season in Brazil this year and will then meet again in Week 15; the “Brazil Game” counts as a home game for the Chargers so a fast start matters.
• Chiefs – – 11-6-0:  I see the Chiefs “dropping off” in 2025 from their 15-2-0 record last year to a level that most teams can only aspire too.  The combination of “Super Bowl Loser Syndrome” with what looks to me like a mediocre offensive line leads me to this prediction.  By the way, if you are a Chiefs hater, you might be unhappy with the Prime Time and Solo time broadcast slots afforded to the Chiefs:
  • Sao Paolo Game – Solo slot
  • Thanksgiving Game – – Solo slot
  • Christmas Game – – Solo slot
  • Thursday Night Football – – One time
  • Monday Night Football – – Two times
  • Sunday Night Football – – Three times
• Broncos – – 10-7-0:  The Broncos have the makings of a dominant defense and while Bo Nix is not as physically gifted as either Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert, he is a very underrated QB presence on the field.  The Broncos finished third in the AFC West last year and yet they had the best point differential in the division.
• Raiders – – 7-10-0:  After finishing 4-13-0 in 2024 and playing in what I think is the toughest division in the league, my prediction represents a significant change of fortune for the Raiders’ franchise.  Pete Carroll will be 74 years old this calendar year; he is not the “long-term solution” to the Raiders’ woes in recent years, but he is the sort of coach/leader who can stabilize matters and get things headed in the right direction.  Raiders’ fans need to hope that Mark Davis can secure a solid successor to Carroll a couple of years from now.  In the present, the Raiders’ fans can enjoy the stylings of Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty on offense and Maxx Crosby on defense.

Next up is the AFC South.  If someone were to ask me to summarize the AFC South in a single word, the word would be “ Meh!”  I don’t see the top teams from last year breaking out into the elite levels of the league and I see the bottom teams improving slightly to give the division race a closeness that will attract attention.  Other than that, …?  I say the division cumulative record for 2025 will be 31-37-0.

• Texans – – 9-8-0:  Nico Collins has to stay healthy for 17 games this year and one of the rookies the Texans drafted at WR has to show that he can be a #2 WR.  In addition, the OL has to improve a lot from 2024; CJ Stroud was sacked 54 times last year.  Behind Stroud on the depth chart are:
  • Davis “General” Mills
  • Graham “Not Fred” Mertz
• DeMeco Ryans has changed the image of the Texans’ franchise from a laughingstock to solidarity.  But even that solid defense in Houston would not compensate for the loss of either Collins or Stroud.
• Colts – – 8-9-0:  The QB confusion continues in Indy; they are starting their eighth different QB in Week 1 for the eighth strait season.  The schedule is daunting with the AFC West and the NFC West on tap.  Maybe this record is too optimistic?
• Jags – – 8-9-0:  New Jags’ coach, Liam Coen, had a top-shelf season as the offensive coordinator with the Bucs last year.  The Bucs finished fourth in scoring in the NFL last year and finished third in Total Offense in the league.  If he brings that sort of offensive creativity to a team with Trevor Lawrence calling the shots, that could become a potent force in the division.  Again, the schedule is brutal, and it is not clear to me how the team will maximize the return for Travis Hunter.
• Titans – – 6-11-0:  I am not sold on Cam Ward as “the answer” at QB for the Titans but if he can avoid the brutally awful mistakes made by last year’s QBs, the team will improve.  Will it be enough to maintain some stability in the team?  The Titans have a BYE Week in Week 10; the team had better be 3-6-0 or better at that point or there might be coaching/Front Office upheaval in mid-stream.

From the mediocrity on display in the AFC South, let me move on to the AFC North where there are three tough teams and a weak-sister.  However, that weak-sister has a blue chip defense that can make things difficult for opponents.  This will be another close divisional race that will keep everyone’s attention through Week 18 when the Ravens/Steelers and the Bengals/Browns are on the schedule.  I say the division cumulative record for 2025 will be 34-34-0.

• Ravens – – 11-6-0:  The early schedule is difficult;
  • At Bills
  • Browns
  • Lions
  • At Chiefs
  • Texans
  • Rams
  • BYE WEEK
• Later the opponents are not quite as formidable in sequence, but the Ravens are on the road more late in the season.  Lost in the fact that Saquon Barkley ran for 2000+ yards in 2024 is the fact that Derrick Henry averaged 5.9 yards per carry last season – – and he’s back this year.
• Bengals – – 10-7-0:  Management came to its senses and recognized that the Bengals’ porous defense would not be improved by trading Trey Hendrickson away; he is now signed for 2025.  Also, the Bengals took DE, Shemar Stewart as their first pick in the Draft in April and eventually got him signed after a protracted struggle; maybe he can make the Bengals’ defense “acceptable” this year because it was not in 2024 when it gave up 28 points per game.
• Steelers – – 8-9-0:  Yes, I am predicting the first losing season for Mike Tomlin during his tenure in Pittsburgh.  I don’t think Aaron Rodgers has nearly enough offensive talent around him to allow him – – at age 41 – – to excel on the basis of his wits and guile.  The defense will be – – well – – “Steeler-like” meaning lots of close games.
• Browns – – 5-12-0:  The schedule-maker did the Browns no favors in the early part of the season.  The first 6 weeks are:
  • Bengals
  • At Ravens
  • Packers
  • At Lions
  • Vikes (Game is in London)
  • At Steelers
• After that, the Browns draw the Dolphins at the Pats and at the Jets who – – by comparison – – are less fearsome opponents.

Next  up will be the AFC East.  The fairy tale of the “Three Little Pigs” sort of applies here; the Bills are the “Big, Bad Wolf” and the other teams are in danger when in the presence of the “Big Bad Wolf”.  In the fairy tale, the Pigs find refuge in a brick house; I don’t know that I can spot a brick mason anywhere in the area who might “save their bacon” so to speak.  I say the division cumulative record in 2025 will be 32-36-0.

• Bills – – 11-6-0:  The schedule here is relatively soft; after facing the Ravens in Week 1, the Bills will next see a playoff team from last year in Week 9 (Chiefs).  If I had more confidence in the Bills’ defense, I would have them at 13 or 14 wins – – but I don’t have much confidence there.
• Dolphins – – 8-9-0:  The Dolphins have some offensive weapons when Tua Tagovailoa is upright and on his game.  That is how the team is going to win 8 games because the defense is nothing to write home about.
• Pats – — 7-10-0:  Patriots’ fans who yearn for a return to the team’s dynastic ways should take heart that 7 wins in 2025 would be a 75% increase over the win total in both 2023 and 2024.  In fact, the Pats were not favored in a single game last season; that is pretty close to rock bottom.  Just as I expect Pete Carroll to make a positive difference in Las Vegas, I expect Mike Vrabel to field a different sort of team in New England from what fans saw last season.  I like Drake Maye as a developing QB; I like the RBs; Hunter Henry is an acceptable TE; I wish the Pats had something more fearsome at WR than soon-to-be-32-years-old, Stefon Diggs.
• Jets – – 6-11-0:  Here is what I think will be interesting about the Jets’ season.  I think Aaron Glenn has the makings of a good head coach, but he may be in the wrong job at the wrong time.  He is a defensive minded coach; he played defense and he “earned his stripes’ as the Lions’ defensive coordinator over the past couple of seasons.  The Jets’ shortcomings are not on defense; while the defensive unit is not stellar, the team problems center on the offensive side of the ball.  Generally, defensive coordinators who elevate to head coaches do not elevate the team offense too much.

            Moving over to the NFC, will begin with the NFC West which, I think, will be a tough and a surprising division in 2025.  I say the division cumulative record in 2025 will be 36-32-0

• Cards – – 10-7-0:  That’s right; I am predicting that the Western Division in both conferences will produce surprising champions this year.  The Cards won 8 games last year but that was double what they won in 2023; the momentum is there.  And if Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Trey McBride continue their development, the Cards are going to be a tough out.  The final 6 weeks of the schedule will be a test of the team’s mettle:
  • At Bucs
  • Rams
  • At Texans
  • Falcons
  • At Bengals
  • At Rams
• Rams – – 9-8-0:  If Matthew Stafford’s back heals itself, the Rams could blow by this prediction in mid-December, but I am leery of the time it has taken for him to be able to “fully participate” in practices.  At age 37, a “re-injury” could be very problematic for the Rams.  Can the Rams import healing waters from Lourdes – – or would the imposed tariffs be too great?
• Niners – – 9-8-0:  The team is not starting the season in good health and that is rarely a good NFL omen.  The Niners face each of their three division opponents in the first 5 weeks of the schedule.  Early or not in the season, those will be important games.
• Seahawks – – 8-9-0:  This team is a huge enigma, and the core of the uncertainty is named Sam Darnold.  He was great in 2024; if he had played like that for all those years between his Draft year (2018) and now, he would be thought of as a likely Hall of Fame QB.  No one – except for his nuclear family – thinks of him in those terms now.  So, what flavor of the “Sam Darnold Experience” does he have on tap for us NFL watchers?  Can he lead them to 14 wins the same way he did with the Vikes last year  scoring 24 points per game?  Or will he revert to earlier times when he had home fans boo him off the field?

            Next up shall be the NFC South.  In college football, teams from the “South” tend to be among the best in the country.  In NFL football, the two South Divisions are the weak sisters in their conferences.  In science we have conservation laws – – mass, angular momentum, energy – – and maybe there is a football law involving the “Conservation of Excellence” which explains the imbalance of “South teams” in college and pro football?  Probably not …  I say the division cumulative record in 2025 will be 27-41-0.

• Bucs – – 10-7-0:  The Bucs averaged 29.5 points per game last year; that productivity earned their Offensive Coordinator a head coaching job this season.  So, can the Bucs do something like that again under different tutelage?  Another important variable here is the status of OT, Tristan Wirfs and WR Chris Goodwin.  Both suffered injuries last season, and both spent all of Training Camp until this week on the Physically Unable to Perform List.  The Bucs need both of them in “healthy status” for the year.
• Falcons – – 8-9-0:  Someone in NFL HQs or at the networks must think a lot more highly about the Falcons than I do.  The Falcons will be on Sunday Night Football twice and on Monday Night Football twice and on Thursday Night Football once and will have a solo TV time slot when they play the Colts in Berlin.  That sort of exposure is not usually afforded to teams that went 8-9-0 in the previous season.  Week 1 has the Falcons and the Bucs starting the season in Atlanta; that is another early season division game that could have significant implications later in the season.
• Panthers – – 6-11-0:  I realize that I am not showing the Panthers a lot of respect with that prediction, but that team allowed 534 points last season.  If this year’s team shaves 100 points off that total from last year, it might still be in the bottom half of the league.
• Saints – – 3-14-0:  The only interesting thing to me about the Saints’ season is this:
  • OVER/UNDER when the grocery bags adorn fans’ heads with the label “’Aints”?
  • I say Week 5 at home against the Giants with the Saints 0-4 at kickoff.
• My prediction of only 3 wins could well be in doubt until very late in the season.  Here is the Saints’ schedule in Weeks 15-17:
  • Panthers
  • Jets
  • At Titans

It is time now for a look at the NFC North.  Last year, this was a brutally difficult division with three teams winning 11 games or more.  The Packers finished at 11-6-0 putting them a distant third in the NFC North; that same 11-6-0 record would have won three other divisions in the NFL in 2024.  I do not see anything similar happening this year partly because the schedule is very difficult with the NFC East teams and the AFC North teams on tap in 2025.  I say the divisional cumulative record in 2025 will be 35-33-0.

• Packers – – 10-7-0:  The Packers start the season against the Lions and Commanders.  The Packers close out the season against the Ravens and the Vikes.  And the stuff in between looks pretty difficult.   I think that rookie WR, Matthew Golden (Texas) could be an important addition to the Packers’ offense as a speed receiver.
• Lions – – 10-7-0:  I attribute this drop off in wins to the coaching brain-drain from the offseason.  The Lions lost both coordinators and two other assistant coaches.  All respect to Dan Campbell here, but that is a lot of change to accommodate all at once.  I am glad to see a throwback game on the schedule this year.  On Thanksgiving Day, the Lions will host the Packers.  That was always the matchup way back when and it should be a good way to get my tummy ready for the feast to follow.
• Vikes – – 8-9-0:  As I noted when discussing the Seahawks, the Vikes were the recipients of Sam Darnold’s “To Date Career Year” in 2024.  I know that the coaching staff is more than just sold on JJ McCarthy as the team leader, but the fact is that he has never taken a real snap in a real NFL game, and the Vikes have a hugely difficult schedule.  The Vikes’ defense added Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave to the DL and that should make a strong unit even better.
• Bears – – 7-10-0:  Bears’ fans seem to be even more optimistic than usual for the 2025 season because they believe that Ben Johnson has some sort of magic elixir that he will share with Caleb Williams thereby launching the Bears into the playoffs poised to “make a run”.  I don’t subscribe to that newsletter, but I do think the Bears will improve on their 5-12-0 record from last year.  The Bears’ game in Week 6 is at the Commanders.  Last year, the Bears visited Washington around the same time in the season and had the game won until a Hail Mary pass was completed to turn the Commanders’ season in a positive direction and to send the Bears on a long journey to nowhere.  Get set to see replays of that Hail Mary completion at least a bazillion times in that week.

            Last – but certainly not least – I need to read the tea leaves from the NFC East.  The schedules for these teams are all difficult; the NFC East teams get to play the NFC North teams and the AFC West teams.  Oh joy …  I see a much more compact final standing for this division in 2025 and much of that is due to the grinding of the schedule on these rosters.  I say the division cumulative record for 2025 will be 36-32-0.

• Eagles – – 12-5-0:  Philly fans will call me a hater; I am not.  The Eagles deserve every accolade based on their performance in 2024 and then throughout the playoffs.  However, Saquon Barkley is not going to rush for 2000+ yards again in 2025; fans should be thrilled if he gets to 1500 yards.  The team lost its Offensive Coordinator to a head coaching gig.  The schedule starts out difficult:
  • Cowboys – – big rivalry game
  • At Chiefs – – Super Bowl rematch
  • Rams – – playoff team last year
  • At Bucs – – playoff team last year
  • Broncos – – a team on the upswing
• The schedule also ends with difficulty in Weeks 16-18:
  • At Commanders
  • At Bills  – and won’t the weather for that game be a blessing…
  • Commanders
• And don’t forget that the Eagles lost about a half-dozen defensive players who were significant contributors last season.
• Commanders – – 10-7-0:  Commanders’ fans will call me a hater; I am not.  The Commanders were 8-1 in one-score games in 2024; that is a difficult thing to sustain.  The Commanders’ defense is like a  yo-yo from game to game and even from half-game to half-game.  The offense should be very good – – assuming that the young running backs live up to their pre-season hype.  Jayden Daniels is the real deal, but he may experience a small regression this year because defensive coordinators around the league have had months to check him out; no one had that sort of luxury last year.
• Cowboys – – 8-9-0:  The addition of Geroge Pickens is a plus for the offense and for Cee Dee Lamb specifically.  The array of RBs on the depth chart is pretty bland – – but it is better than what was there last year; and Dak Prescott is back to play QB.  That’s the good news.  The not nearly as good news is that the Cowboys defense was awful in 2024 giving up 468 points – – only the Panthers were worse (see above).  I keep looking at the Cowboys’ depth chart for some standout defenders that have been added over the offseason.  If you find any, please let me know.  Here is a particularly rough schedule stretch for the Cowboys in Weeks 12-17:
  • Eagles
  • Chiefs
  • At Lions
  • Vikes
  • Chargers
  • At Commanders
• Giants – – 6-11-0:  The Giants’ BYE Week is in Week 14.  If the Giants are 2-11-0 at that point, Brian Daboll will be fired.  Looking at the schedule, there are only 3 games where the Giants could be favored in the first 13 weeks.  This team needs to overachieve early in the season to keep the season from becoming a cataclysm.

            So, here is the playoff lineup as I see it now for the AFC:

1. Chargers – – BYE Week and Home Field
2. Bills
3. Ravens
4. Texans
5. Chiefs
6. Broncos – – they host the Bengals in Week 4 and win the tie-breaker that night

And here is the playoff lineup as I see it now for the NFC:

1. Eagles – – BYE Week and Home Field
2. Packers – – Division winners via tie-breaker with the Lions
3. Cards
4. Bucs
5. Commanders
6. Lions

As always, I will not let these predictions and comments fade into oblivion; they will be exposed for what they are in Jan/Feb 2026.

I’ll close with this most appropriate comment from Lao Tzu:

“Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Today will be the second aliquot of the all-too-large NFL Pre-Season Analysis that I have presented in previous years.  This will be a league overview, and it will give me another day or two to finish up my last installation here – – the final records for all the teams in the regular season.

I think this season will be an acid test for a few teams/players in addition to the coaches that I suggested would be on a hot seat this year.  In no particular order:

• Colts:  They have been stuck in “middle moose mode” ever since Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement announcement and have not been able to get their QB situation stabilized.  This will be the eighth consecutive year they have a new starting QB for Game 1.  They have never been high enough in the Draft to get a real good prospect and have reached for players like Anthony Richardson who lost the starting job this year to Daniel Jones who is – – face it – – a retread.  If the Colts finish 9-8 or worse and miss the playoffs, they could easily decide to fire the coach; they should also fire the GM who has been there longer than the coach.
• Giants:  I put them here because I mentioned Daniel Jones above.  Ever since the disappearance of Eli Manning from the roster, the Giants’ QBs have been “ordinary at best”.  Truth be told, Daniel Jones was the best of the lot, and he was unceremoniously cast aside last year.  Let me refresh your memory here with Giants starting QBs in addition to Daniel Jones since 2019:
  • • Colt McCoy
    • Mike Glennon
    • Jake Fromm
    • Davis Webb
    • Tommy DeVito
    • Tyrod Taylor
    • Drew Lock

Now imagine if you will the agita that would prevail in the Giants’ fanbase if Daniel Jones shows up in Indy and produces a Pro Bowl season that leads the Colts to the playoffs.  There might not be enough Pepto Bismol east of the Mississippi to cure that burning sensation…

• Dolphins:  They signed up Tua Tagovailoa to a contract worth more than $200M and it would seem that the team might like to know how that is going to work out.  When things are right, Tua is very good; things are not always right, however; and Tua has had a propensity for injury.
• Cards:  Believe it or not, Kyler Murray has been in the NFL for 6 years already.  Last year, the Cards went from 4 wins in 2023 to 8 wins in 2024.  Might this be the year when Kyler Murray demonstrates that he has become a “plus selection” as the overall #1 pick back in 2019?
• Niners:  This team under Kyle Shanahan is the football incarnation of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.  In the 8 seasons under Shanahan, the Niners have posted double-digit wins 4 times and been to the Super Bowl twice.  In those same 8 seasons, the team has finished with 6 wins three times and with 4 wins the other time.  As they used to say on the very old daytime TV game show, To Tell the Truth:
  • • “Will the real SF 49ers please stand up?”
• The championship window for the Niners seems to be closing.  The Niners are long in the tooth with George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey poised on a precipice with Father Time nudging them forward.  McCaffrey has had difficulty staying healthy recently and Kittle will be 32 years old in October.  Brandon Aiyuk may not be available until mid-season; Deebo Samuel was traded away, Kyle Juszczyk is 34 years old, and Trent Williams just turned 37.

It is that time of year when lots of folks are looking ahead to the NFL regular season thereby starting a generic narrative for the season.  As the drumbeats get louder and more rhythmic, it always. seems as if certain teams either acquire popular momentum or lose it entirely.  At this point in the run-up to the regular season, I think there are a few overrated teams and a few underrated teams in the generic narrative.

I’ll start with three teams that might be OVERRATED:

1. Bills:  Let me be clear, I totally expect them to win the AFC East.  My sense is that a lot of commentators have them penciled in for the AFC Championship Game at least for this season and I’m not nearly as convinced that the Bills are that much better than other AFC teams.  On the positive side, the Bills finally signed James Cook to a long-term extension giving them a running threat to keep defenses honest.  My question is with the Bills’ defense, which was not great last year giving up 22 points per game.  Folks did not pay much attention to that because the Bills’ offense scored 31 points per game.  But I don’t see a big step forward for the Bills’ defense this year and the fact that they will not have 2 of their DTs available for the first 6 games – – league suspension – – makes me wonder a bit.
2. Lions:  Again, do not misinterpret here; I do not think the Lions will fall apart. I do think that the fact that they won 15 games last year has clouded the vision of some prognosticators; the Lions are not likely to do that again this year and it has nothing to do with personnel.  The Lions lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs over the offseason – – Ben Johnson is in Chicago and Aaron Glenn is in NYC.  That is non-trivial; the last time that happened it was to the Eagles after they went to the Super Bowl in 2022 and lost there to the Chiefs.  Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon got head coaching gigs and the Eagles in 2023 bore no resemblance to the team that showed up in 2022.
3. Bengals:  Everyone looks at the triumvirate of Joe Burrow/JaMar Chase/Tee Higgins and concludes that they will score points galore; in fact, those guys scored 28 points per game in 2024.  And yet, the Bengals finished at 9-8-0 with that offensive output.  Therein lies the rub; in order to win in the NFL, it behooves the defensive unit to stop somebody some of the time.  The Bengals did not do that last year, and I don’t think they added any Hall of Fame quality players to that  unit in the offseason.  There is too much love being piped into Cincy for my taste.

            I only have two teams that I consider UNDERRATED at this point in the generic narrative.  I realize my failure to have a third one on hand puts the symmetry of the universe at risk, but I’ll take the chance:

1. Cowboys:  They were 7-10-0 last year which is hardly a reason to be excited for this year.  But the Cowboys played much of last year with Cooper Rush at QB and with a sub-par running game.  This year Dak Prescott will be back from injury and even Cowboy-haters must acknowledge that Prescott is a significant step up in class at the position.  Moreover, the Cowboys’ acquisition of George Pickens gives them a WR tandem that could be Top-5 in the league – – if the team can find a way to keep Pickens focused on football and not on any excursions to La-La-Land. I am confident that Jerry Jones, Micah Parsons and Micah Parsons’ agent will find a way to “kiss and make up” after all the bluster in recent weeks surrounding Parsons’ desire for a contract extension and Jones’ “intransigence”.
2. Chargers:  Here is a foreshadowing for a couple of days from now; I think the Chargers are going to win the AFC West.  Jim Harbaugh may not be my favorite hominid on Planet Earth, but he can coach football, and he likes to assemble a team that is bigger than the opponents so that he can bludgeon the opponents.  Last year, the Chargers’ running game bludgeoned no one; this year they have Najee Harris and rookie Omarion Hampton to run the ball, and both seem to seek out someone with the other color jersey to run into or over.  Justin Herbert will benefit from that kind of attacking run offense and I think the Chargers are going to be better in 2025 than they were in 2024 when they went 11-6-0

            In about half of the NFL seasons, one of the teams that finished last in its division the previous year rises up and wins the division the next year.  This is called a Worst-To-First season.  So, I want to take a look and see which bottom-feeder from 2024 might be a division winner in 2025:

• AFC East – Pats:  They were 4-13-0 last year and will likely be much improved in 2025.  However, they will not overtake the Bills.
• AFC North – Browns:  Love their defense but that is not good enough to get them to the top of a tough division.
• AFC South – Titans:  I know they have the overall #1 pick to play QB for them, but I was not over-the-moon excited about him back on Draft Day.  Not happening …
• AFC West – Raiders:  With Pete Carroll in charge – – and with Tom Brady able to chime in periodically – – at least there is adult supervision for the team which has not necessarily been the case recently.  Nonetheless, the Raiders are not winning that division in 2025.
• NFC East – Giants:  They will be better than 3-14-0 this year – – but not nearly good enough to win this division.
• NFC North – Bears:  Is Caleb Williams as advertised?  If so, the Bears should be significantly better in 2025 than the 5-12-0 team that hit the field in 2024.  However, they have 3 powerhouse teams ahead of them in that division …
• NFC South – Saints/Panthers:  Both teams finished 5-12-0; I think the Saints are going to be a strong contender for the overall #1 pick in the 2026 Draft and not be a contender in the division.  The Panthers could be an interesting “Worst-To First” candidate if they find a way to shore up their defense which gave up 31.4 points per game in 2024.
• NFC West – Niners:  I think they are getting more love than they should – – but in terms of a last place finisher from last year having the potential to put together a winning season this year, I think the Niners are the best bet on the board.

            Since I worried about upsetting the symmetry of the universe above, let me do a little repair work here.  Since others look for teams that may go Worst-To-First, let me try to find a candidate that will go First-to-Worst in its division:

• AFC East – Bills:  I think the Bills are going to repeat as the division winners for the sixth straight year in 2025; so, cross them off this list.
• AFC North – Ravens:  It would be the Cinderella Story of the decade in sports if Joe Flacco led the Browns from the cellar of the division to have them dethrone a Ravens’ squad that self-immolated and fell to the bottom.  However, you are more likely to find a green unicorn that farts rainbows than to find this in the NFL standings in January 2026.
• AFC South – Texans:  If CJ Stroud were to turn into a pumpkin …  Even so, it is hard to imagine the Texans falling below the Titans and the Jags…
• AFC West – Chiefs:  I think the Chiefs will suffer “Super Bowl Loser Syndrome” this year and will not come close to winning 15 games again in 2025, but they are not going to finish last in the AFC West.
• NFC East – Eagles:  Expect them to come back to the pack this year; the schedule is brutal – – but I don’t see them falling behind the Cowboys and the Giants.
• NFC North – Lions:  As noted above, I expect regression here and as intimated above, the Bears might be on the improve.  And the Vikes/Packers are both good teams …  Not to worry, I am not going to talk myself into that prediction.
• NFC  South – Bucs:  Bucs have won the division 4 years in a row even though their cumulative record in the last three seasons is a measly 27-24.  They lost their offensive coordinator to a head coaching job in their division.  The Bucs have survived on their tightrope in the past; can they do it again?
• NFC West – Rams:  This could be a very tight division if the Niners come on as many people think they will.  And Matthew Stafford has been nursing a bad back all through Training Camp.  Jimmy G. is a competent back-up there – – but the operative word is “back-up”.  I think the Rams are the most vulnerable of the division winners for the upcoming season.

            That concludes my synoptic view of the upcoming NFL season; it will be subject to post-mortem analysis and evaluation about 5 months from now.

Finally, this observation by the French author, Paul Valery seems an appropriate way to end today:

“The folly of mistaking a paradox for a discovery, a metaphor for a proof, a torrent of verbiage for a spring of capital truths, and oneself for an oracle, is inborn in us.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

If you look at the MLB standings as of this morning, your attention must be drawn to the two Western Division races.  The top two teams there – – Dodgers/Padres and Astros/Mariners – – are in a virtual dead heat.  However, there is another division race that could become very interesting over the next several weeks; I speak here of the NL East.  For the moment, the Phillies lead the division by 6 games over the Mets.

Moreover, the Mets have been in a tailspin; back at the beginning of August, the Mets were leading the NL East and here they are 6 games back at the end of the month.  However, the schedule might be set up for the Mets to make a run.

• Last night the Mets led off a three-game series in Philly winning 13-3 cutting the lead to the 6-game mark as of this morning.
• After two more games in Philly this week, the two teams meet again for a 4-game series in NY starting September 8^th – – just 12 days from now.
• In 7 games head-to-head between the Mets and the Phillies this season, the Mets lead the series 5 games to 2.
• In addition to the six games against the Mets, the Phillies other opponents include Brewers (3 games), Dodgers (3 games) and the D-Backs (3 games).

This schedule situation comes on the heels of some seriously bad news for the Phillies’ pitching staff.  Last week it was reported that Phillies’ ace Zack Wheeler had a blood clot in his throwing shoulder.  Subsequent tests and diagnosis revealed that surgery would be needed on that shoulder to alleviate venous thoracic outlet syndrome.  Any folks reading this who have medical training of any kind should go and get a cup of coffee for the next couple of paragraphs as I explain what I think venous thoracic outlet syndrome is:

1. In some people, the muscles – or even a bone sometimes – can apply pressure to veins in the shoulder area that restrict the blood flow there causing clotting.
2. People who use their arms in repetitive motion are significantly more prone to this condition than other folks – – consider swimmers, bowlers, baseball pitchers.
3. Estimated rehab time is 6-8 months, meaning Wheeler is out for the rest of the MLB regular season and the playoffs.

One report I read said that pitchers who have to undergo this type of procedure have an 80% recovery rate.  That is good news for Phillies’ fans.  Let me offer one word of caution here:

• Remember, I come to you from “Curmudgeon Central” and not “Palazzo Pessimismo”; nevertheless, this is the surgery that ended the career of Stephen Strasbourg about 5 years ago.
• Obviously, I hope Zack Wheeler comes back from his rehab regimen in the 8-month window and can start for the Phillies on Opening Day 2026.
• However, …

Moving on …  I spent some time yesterday watching part of the final Exhibition Game between the Rams and the Browns.  I was interested because reports said that Shedeur Sanders had “struggled” in the game and that he might lose his place on the Browns’ roster as a result.

Sanders did indeed struggle; here is his stat line for the game:

• 3 of 6 for 14 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs

He also took a huge sack on a play where he needed to throw the ball out of bounds because he had three pursuers and had no chance of escaping them.  I don’t know that he jeopardized his roster spot with his performance last weekend – – we’ll know that later today as cutdowns are coming – – but I came away with the conclusion that I was right back in April when I said this about my assessment of Shedeur Sanders as a QB prospect:

“Shedeur Sanders – Colorado:  Most folks have him as the second QB off the board.  My comments were ‘very accurate on short passes’ and ‘plays the screen game well’ and ‘far less athletic than his genetics would imply’.  He will go in the first round, but I think he is ‘a project – not a Day One Starter’.

Obviously, I got the “Round One” part wrong, but as for the rest, I think it is correct.  Some folks have argued that there was some sort of conspiratorial activity back in the Draft that dropped Sanders to the 5^th round before he was picked and then others – – or maybe the same conspiracy theorists using a different nom de guerre – – were sure that Browns’ coach Kevin Stefanski was intentionally trying to make Sanders look bad because he only let him play with the third and fourth stringers in the Browns’ camp.

I think all of that is unadulterated Balderdash.  Shedeur Sanders is not a stiff; he is not someone whose only claim to fame is his father’s accomplishments.  He may some day become a good NFL QB – – but that day is not likely to be in 2025 or even 2026.  I think he needs to learn how to play QB from the pocket and how to give up on a play when that play is blown up by the defense.  He did not do those things when I watched him at Colorado, and he will have to learn to do those things if he hopes to hone his skills and become an NFL starter.

This may be a level of humiliation that is beyond tolerance, but I think Shedeur Sanders would benefit greatly from a season in the UFL.  It is too early for NFL teams to write him off, but he needs to play against competent-if not-great defenders to raise his own game skills.

Finally, having mentioned the surgery on Zack Wheeler above, let me observe that it does not fit the definition of “Minor Surgery”:

“Minor Surgery:  Any surgical procedure that is carried out on someone else.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

At this time last year, I deviated from earlier practice.  Instead of one massive NFL pre-season analysis, I broke it up into smaller and more digestible pieces.  After reviewing that modification, I decided to do it the new way once again this year.  And so, today will be my look at NFL coaches on a hot seat.

There are not a lot of NFL head coaching jobs – – 32 of them to be exact and there is a huge supply of folks out there who would love to “give it a go” in such a role.  Normally, that would create a buyer’s market for owners and meager leverage for agents and wannabe coaches.  Not so.  The owners’ competitive nature is a wild card in that market; few if any of them like to sit back and watch their colleagues win championships while they sit on their thumbs.  There are big financial commitments at stake here and there is a significant churn in the coaching population.  Going into this season, there are 7 new head coaches in the ranks; there have been years with even greater turnover.

I have broken up the coaches into 4 general categories which I will explain as I get to them.  Inside the categories, I will list the coaches alphabetically and will include a comment for all the individuals on the lists.  Enough preamble …

The first category is the No Way They Get Fired List.  I have 10 coaches on this list; I think it would take something like incontrovertible video evidence of someone on this list in a carnal relationship with a barnyard animal to get them fired.

1. Dan Campbell – Lions:  Turned the franchise around.
2. Jim Harbaugh – Chargers:  I think he will win the AFC West this year.
3. John Harbaugh – Ravens:  He is a Baltimore institution.
4. Sean McDermott – Bills:  His Bills should win the AFC East again for the sixth season in a row.
5. Sean McVey – Rams:  He mentioned that he was considering retirement a couple of years ago; he may do that, but he will not be fired.
6. Sean Payton – Broncos:  The Broncos’ team momentum is on the upswing.
7. Andy Reid – Chiefs:  He will be the coach of the Chiefs until he decides to retire.
8. DeMeco Ryans – Texans:  He took over a team that had gone 11-38-1 over the previous three seasons and has won the division two years in a row.
9. Nick Siriani – Eagles:  He has made the playoffs in all four years in Philly and been to the Super Bowl twice in that time.
10. Dan Quinn – Commanders:  Such a marked improvement over predecessors from the last 20 years.

            The next category is First Year On The Job Coaches.  I have seven folks so designated here.  Any of them could be fired with a disastrous performance – – see Jerrod Mayo and the Pats and/or Antonio Pierce and the Raiders  last year – – but it would have to be dumpster-fire bad to have that happen.

1. Pete Carroll – Raiders:  Even Mark Davis is not dumb enough to fire someone of Carroll’s stature after one season on the job.  The Raiders were a significantly flawed roster last year; if Carroll can make the team into a “break-even proposition” this year he would be a first-class hero.
2. Liam Coen – Jags:  This is his first gig as a head coach anywhere.  The Jags only won 4 games last year; that is not a high bar to cross.
3. Aaron Glenn – Jets:  The Jets have had nine consecutive losing seasons.  If the Jets win five or six games this year, Glenn will be back in 2026.
4. Ben Johnson – Bears:  Expectations here are sky-high.  Johnson is a “certified offensive genius”, and Caleb Williams is proclaimed as a “generational talent”.  What could possibly go wrong?
5. Kellen Moore – Saints:  I do not have a good feeling about the Saints in 2025.
6. Brian Schottenheimer – Cowboys:  I think he is safe this year simply because I don’t think Jerry Jones would want to face criticism for his choice of Schottenheimer in the first place.
7. Mike Vrabel – Pats:  The Pats stunk in spades last year; Vrabel was successful with the Titans and the expectation in New England should be “an improved team.”

My next category is difficult to label so I’ll just call it I Don’t Expect Vulnerability Here But I Would Not Be Shocked Either.  There are seven entries on this list.

1. Todd Bowles – Bucs:  It pains me to put hm on this list because I think he is an excellent coach.  He has been on the job for 3 seasons and has won the NFC South every year – – but his record in doing so is only 27-24-0.
2. Matt LaFleur – Packers:  The vulnerability here is that his record in the playoffs is 3-5-0 while his overall regular season record is 67-33-0.  Some folks see that as ‘underachievement” …
3. Mike MacDonald – Seahawks:  He had a solid “rookie season” with the Seahawks in 2024 finishing second in the division at 10-7-0.
4. Raheem Morris – Falcons:  The last time the Falcons had a winning season was back in 2017; Morris posted the best record since then last year at 8-9-0.  Unless the Falcons’ record craters in 2025, Morris should be safe.
5. Kevin O’Connell – Vikes:  His regular season record with the Vikes is 34-17-0; he was the Coach of the Year in 2024.  Why isn’t he on the “No Way” list?  His Vikings are 0-2 in the playoffs.
6. Kyle Shanahan – Niners:  This will be his ninth season with the Niners; he had them in the Super Bowl two years ago and then bombed out last year with a 6-11-0 record.  By the way, that was his fourth losing season in eight tries.  If this year is another losing season, there could be an upheaval in Santa Clara …
7. Mike Tomlin – Steelers:  No, I have not ingested any hallucinogens today.  Mike Tomlin and the Steelers’ organization are bedrock stability in the NFL structure and Mike Tomlin’s teams have never had a losing season over the last 18 seasons.  Looking at that record of success, one is probably surprised to learn that the Steelers last won a playoff game in 2016 and that the Steelers are 3-9 in the playoffs since the year they won the Super Bowl.

And finally, we come to those Coaches Who Are On A Hot Seat for 2025.  I have eight names on this list – – 25% of the NFL head coaching cadre.

1. Brian Callahan – Titans:  He was 3-14-0 in his first year with the Titans.  That roster was not well constructed; recall that the Titans shed themselves of Derrick Henry and AJ Brown in the two seasons prior to the debacle in 2024.  Nonetheless, without improvement in 2025 – say 5 or 6 wins – there could be a change in Tennessee; the fact that the Titans play in the lackluster AFC South opens the door for an improved record.
2. Dave Canales – Panthers:  He was 5-12-0 with the Panthers in his rookie season last year.  He works for an incredibly impatient owner.  End of message…
3. Brian Daboll – Giants:  He has been the head coach there over the past three seasons.  The Giants won 9 games in Year 1; the Giants won 6 games in  Year 2; the Giants won 3 games in Year 3; that is a disastrous trend line.
4. Jonathan Gannon – Cards:  This will be his third year with the Cards; the first two years produced a meager record of 12-22-0.  However, the Cards doubled their win total in 2024 as compared to 2023.  He will get off the hot seat if the upward trend continues – – but with a regression …
5. Mike McDaniel – Dolphins:  He has been in Miami for 3 seasons; the Dolphins made the playoffs in the first two of those seasons albeit losing in the wild card round of the playoffs both times.  Last year the team went 8-9-0 and I think this year might just be a litmus test for McDaniel.
6. Kevin Stefanski – Browns:  It is almost unfair to have him on this list.  He has been with the Browns for 5 seasons now – – and that should knock plenty of time off his stint in Purgatory down the line.  In the first four seasons, his Browns were 37-30-0 notwithstanding the fact that the team was saddled with Deshaun Watson and his bloated contract.  Then last year was a disaster at 3-14-0.  The “Cleveland QB Circus” remains in town so I have no idea what might be an acceptable record in 2025 for him to keep his job.
7. Shane Steichen – Colts:  This will be his third season with the Colts and the team record in the first two seasons is an underwhelming 17-17-0.  He may need a playoff appearance to save his position.
8. Zac Taylor – Bengals:  The Bengals have finished 9-8-0 in each of the last two seasons and have missed the playoffs which many folks see as underperformance.  A big reason to suspect that Taylor will survive even if the Bengals miss the playoffs again is that he is under contract through 2026 and the Bengals’ owner, Mike Brown, notoriously does not like to pay people who are not “on the job”.

As usual, this set of prognostications will be subject to post-mortem analysis at the end of the NFL season.

Finally, this perspective from former NFL RB, Ricky Williams:

“If you want to surf, move to Hawaii. If you like to shop, move to New York. If you like acting and Hollywood, move to California. But if you like college football, move to Texas.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Notwithstanding the fact that no one on the planet awaited this moment with bated breath, the calendar now says it is time for Football Friday to return to this lonely Internet outpost.  Folks who have been on this journey for a while can put their minds in neutral for a moment while I explain to more recent followers here what is going to happen on most Friday’s from now until Super Bowl Weekend.  Friday’s rants will focus on college and professional football in a relatively structured way.

Each week, I will present a “Betting Bundle” – – usually between 3 and 6 games – – where I think the oddsmakers have the lines wrong.  In addition, I will usually include a Money Line Parlay or two just for fun,  The next week’s version of Football Friday will begin with a review of the outcomes of those imaginary wagers and parlays.

I will track the progress of my previously identified “Sleeper Team” in college football for 2025 – – Georgia Tech – – just because it does not take a huge effort to do so.  Next, I will track the progress of the Linfield University Wildcats football team.  The reason is that Linfield has had a winning record in Division III football every year since 1956.  Interestingly, in that lengthy span of winning seasons, the Wildcats only “squeaked by” with 5-4 records 4 times.  That is mirrored by the fact that Linfield has had 5 undefeated seasons in football during that streak.

With preliminaries out of the way, there will be college football commentary reviewing some games from the previous week and the games on tap for the week at hand.  As the season progresses, there are some imaginary events I like to pretend are real:

• I track the teams in contention for what I call the Brothel Defense Award.  It goes to the team that gives up the most points per game for the season.  It gets its name from the fact that it is easy to score in a brothel.
• At the end of the year, I imagine a tournament to determine on the field of play the worst team in college football; I call it the SHOE Tournament where “SHOE” is an acronym for “Steaming Heap Of Excrement”.  It is a simple 8-team field selected by a Committee of One – – me – – and the rules are straightforward.  As games are played, the loser must play on until there is only one ultimate loser left to make fun of.

After that tomfoolery, there will be NFL commentary, a review of previous games and a look at the games on tap for that weekend.

That summarizes the content.  There will be weeks when there is no Football Friday because some other life event or family involvement will make such an offering impossible.  But I will try to keep those interruptions to a minimum.

•            OK, long-term readers; it’s time to pay attention again …

Obviously, there is no “Betting Bundle” to review from last week since this is the start of a new season nor has Georgia Tech played a game that counts.  As a Division III school, Linfield has a 9-game regular season that will not begin until September 6^th so there is no tracking of progress toward another winning season there for a couple of weeks.  So that brings me to…

 

College Football Commentary:

 

            Two years ago, Northwestern fired head coach, Pat Fitzgerald, when hazing incidents surfaced at the school.  Fitzgerald denied any knowledge of whatever happened and filed a wrongful termination lawsuit against the school seeking $130M in recompense.  That lawsuit was settled earlier this week; I have not seen a report as to the details of the settlement but there is one report of a statement by Fitzgerald after the fact:

“For the past two years, I have engaged in a process of extensive fact and expert discovery, which showed what I have known and said all along — that I had no knowledge of hazing ever occurring in the Northwestern football program, and that I never directed or encouraged hazing in any way.”

And …

“Through discovery, I learned that some hazing did occur in the football program at Northwestern. I am extremely disappointed that members of the team engaged in this behavior and that no one reported it to me, so that I could have alerted Northwestern’s athletic department and administrators, stopped the inappropriate behavior, and taken every necessary step to protect Northwestern’s student athletes.”

Pat Fitzgerald was a successful coach at Northwestern given that the school played in the Big-10 and is a “disadvantaged conference member”.  In his 17 years at the school, his teams won 10 or more games 3 times, which is spectacular, given the football environment in which that happened.

The NCAA put another coaching behavior matter to rest last week.  The “Michigan sign-stealing scandal” is no more and the NCAA made it clear that they believe that former Michigan coach, Jim Harbaugh, was not an innocent bystander in the matter.  Without going into details, Harbaugh cannot be hired to coach at the Division 1-A level of college football without the school producing a “show cause order” to the NCAA stating how and why such a hiring is necessary.  That “banishment” will be in force until 2039 when Jim Harbaugh will be 76 years old and unlikely to be seeking college football employment.

That punishment is mostly symbolic; what is not symbolic is that Michigan will be fined $20M as part of the punishment.  That will not bankrupt the Athletic Department, but $20M is indeed a lot of cheese.

Last year, the Big-12 had 5 teams that finished with conference records of 7-2.  If you believe the oddsmakers, the Big-12 will be wide open again this year.  In the futures wagering structure for this year, there are six teams with odds between +550 and +800 to win the conference championship – – and get an invite to the CFP.  Those six teams are:

1. Texas Tech (+550)
2. Utah (+550)
3. Arizona State (+600)
4. Kansas State (+600)
5. Baylor (+650)
6. TCU (+800)

The Big-12 may not have the best teams in the country, but the conference is one that needs to be followed just for the potential drama from week to week.

And speaking of the oddsmakers, there is one aspect of college football that I wish would be eliminated.  I refer here to the intentional scheduling of gross mismatches by almost all of the best teams in the country.  I know; there has been progress in recent years; some of the best teams do schedule out-of-conference opponents who are of a similar caliber.  Nevertheless, there are still too many games where the oddsmakers see the outcome as a 5 or even a 7 TD spread.  Those games are not interesting or entertaining.  When a mismatch occurs between two conference members, such a situation cannot be avoided; but the cupcake scheduling out of conference should be an embarrassment to the schools and to the folks who run college football.

Now before anyone starts to think that I am dissing college football as an entertainment vehicle, that is not the case.  However, a game where the halftime score is 45-3 is not entertaining and college football has produced lots of real entertainment so that blowout waste of time stands out like a sore thumb.  You want an example of an entertaining game from the past?

• October 2016 – – Texas Tech versus Oklahoma
• QBs were Patrick Mahomes versus Baker Mayfield
• Sooners won 66-59 with no overtimes
• Mayfield was 27 of 36 for 545 yards and 7 TDs with 0 INTs
• Mahomes was 52 of 88 for 734 yards and 5 TDs with 1 INT
• Total Offense in the game was 1708 yards – tackling was optional that day.

In the past, Penn State was called “Linebacker U” with justification.  It turned out some outstanding linebackers for the NFL.  Under the radar however is the fact that Penn State could also be labeled “Running Back U” – – and I don’t just mean Saquon Barkley.  Consider:

• KiJana Carter – – Overall #1 pick in the Draft but blew out a knee
• Franco Harris – – Pro Football Hall of Fame
• Larry Johnson – – Gained more than 1700 yards in one season
• Lenny Moore – – Pro Football Hall of Fame
• Miles Sanders – – Lead RB on a Super Bowl team

I seriously think that the current lead back at Penn State – – Nick Singleton – – could join that list; he is that good.

 

NCAA Games This Week:  Since there are only 5 games this week involving Division 1-AA teams, I will treat all of them as “Games of Interest”:

 

Iowa St. vs Kansas St. – 3 (50.5): Game is played in Dublin, Ireland.  That’s right; the first game out of the gate is a matchup in the highly unpredictable Big-12.The rivalry between these two rural schools is known as “Farmageddon” and the line opened at 3.5 points.  It then jumped briefly to 4 points and then scooted down to the current 3-point level.  I cannot pretend to know enough about these two teams to make a “Betting Bundle” selection, but I do notice that K-State is returning more starters on offense than I-State – – if that means anything to anybody.

Sam Houston St. at W. Kentucky – 10.5 (61):  This is a conference game between two teams that had winning records overall in 2024.  Sam Houston St was 10-3 overall and 4-1 in conference while W. Kentucky was 8-6 overall and 5-1 in conference.  Could be a good game to watch …

Fresno St. at Kansas – 12.5 (51):  This line has jumped all over the place.  It opened at 14.5 points; it went up to 15.5 points for a while and then started dropping like a rock.  It is at this level this morning, but momentum seems to be clearly with Fresno St. for the moment.

Stanford at Hawaii – 2.5 (50):  Stanford started out as a 2.5-point favorite and now Hawaii is the 2.5-point favorite.  I think Stanford is going to have a “difficult season” in 2025; Andrew Luck is their football GM and not their QB; were he their QB, they might be CFP contenders.  It is not easy for teams from the Lower-48 to schlep to Hawaii for a game; last year Hawaii was 4-3 at home and no one thought of Hawaii as a powerhouse.

Idaho St. at UNLV – 24.5 (64.5):  With Boise St. defecting from the Mountain West Conference, it looks as if UNLV could step in as the conference bully.  Idaho St. is a Division 1-AA team from the Big Sky Conference who finished 5-7 in 2024.

It is far too early in the season to make “Betting Bundle” picks but just to get things started here is a Money Line Parlay for this week:

• K-State @ minus-155
• Hawaii @ minus-130   $100 wager wins $191.07

 

NFL Commentary:

 

I am still working on NFL things like season predictions and coaches on hot seats and things of that ilk which will appear throughout next week – – and will be subject to post-mortem reviews next January/February.  However, there were a couple of news items from this week that deserve attention.

The Colts announced that Daniel Jones would be their starting QB – – not just for Week 1 but for the 2025 regular season.  The immediate reaction to that news from Colts’ head coach, Shane Steichen, was that Jones had won the QB competition in Training Camp with Anthony Richardson.  And indeed, that may be the case.  But I think it is interesting to take stock of those two QBs:

• Neither player has been anything more than “barely adequate” for all their time in the NFL.
• I think Anthony Richardson has the higher ceiling because he is an athletic freak.
• I think Daniel Jones has the higher floor because Richardson has a propensity to go into brain-lock and make disastrously bad plays
• If my analysis above is even close to correct, the real interpretation is that Shane Steichen did not have much of a choice to begin with.

The Colts enjoyed a long period of QB stability.  Peyton Manning played there for a long time, and he was succeeded by Andrew Luck.  However, Luck retired after 2018 and here are the Colts’ starting QBs since then:

• 2019 – – Jacoby Brisset (15 games)  Bryan Hoyer (1)
• 2020 – – Philip Rivers
• 2021 – – Carson Wentz
• 2022 – – Matt Ryan (12 games) Sam Ehlinger (3) Nick Foles (2)
• 2023 – – Gardner Minshew (13 games) Anthony Richardson (4)
• 2024 – – Anthony Richardson (11 games) Joe Flacco (6)
• 2025 – – The eighth straight year with a different starting QB in Week 1.

One good thing going for Daniel Jones as the Colts’ starter is that rookie tight end, Tyler Warren, should provide him with a security blanket as an outlet receiver and as a pass blocker.

There is a completely different vibe surrounding the Giants’ QB situation.  Russell Wilson has been named as the Game 1 starter but the fanbase there has put itself into a state of orgasmic delight with rookie Jaxson Dart.  His play in the preseason games has given Giant’s fans hope they have not had for a while now; the last time the Giants won the NFC East Division was in 2011.

• [Aside:  Let me pat myself on the back here for a moment.  Back in April as we approached the NFL Draft, I said this about Jaxson Dart, “Frankly, he might be the best pro QB from this year’s crop.”  Giants’ fans hope I am correct.]

Frankly, the entirety of the Giants’ QB situation in 2025 looks significantly better than it did last year.  Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and Jaxson Dart are a more positive troika than last year’s ensemble of Daniel Jones, Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito.

Browns’ head coach, Kevin Stefanski, announced the resolution of part of the Browns’ QB “situation” this week.  Joe Flacco – – at age 40 – – will start the season under center.  In this week’s Exhibition Game against the Rams, Flacco will start and then be followed by Dillon Gabriel who will then give way to Shedeur Sanders.  That could mean that Kenny Pickett is the odd-man-out in Cleveland – – or it might mean that Pickett is going to be retained, and this game is to determine if Gabriel or Sanders is the rookie to hang onto a roster slot.  This one seems to remain up in the air.

I find it stunning that two of the best pass rushers in the NFL remain unsigned at this date AND that one of them – Trey Hendrickson – is being mentioned as a trade candidate by the Bengals.  The other player in a similar situation is Micah Parsons but there are extenuating circumstances in Dallas that tend to explain his situation.  Jerry Jones notoriously stretches out signing his star players and that has been the case ever since Emmitt Smith and through the years with the likes of Dez Bryant and Dak Prescott.  But Hendrickson has no such atmosphere about him; he is simply dealing with an organization that tosses nickels around like manhole covers.  The Bengals have a top shelf offense and a next-to-dysfunctional defense.  Hendrickson is the best player on that defense, which can hardly stand to get any worse if the Bengals hope to reap benefits from the offense they have assembled.  Yes, it takes the ability to score points to win football games.  It also helps a lot if you can stop the other guys from scoring once in a while.

The coaching roster in the AFC West is a formidable lineup; I cannot recall anything as imposing.  Consider:

• Broncos – – Sean Payton – – He has been to the Super Bowl as a coordinator and he has won a Super Bowl as a head coach.
• Chargers – – Jim Harbaugh – – He has been to the Super Bowl as a head coach and has won a collegiate National Championship via the CFP.
• Chiefs – – Andy Reid – – He has been to the Super Bowl 5 times and has won the Super Bowl 3 times.
• Raiders – – Pete Carroll – – He won a Super Bowl as a head coach and he won 2 Associated Press collegiate national championships.

The closest I can come to such a lineup would be the NFC East back in the 1980s when the coaches were Tom Landry (Cowboys), Bill Parcells (Giants) and Joe Gibbs (Skins), all of whom are now in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Just to review, there is a Money Line Parlay inserted above:

• K-State @ minus-155
• Hawaii @ minus-130   $100 wager wins $191.07

Finally, these words from Tom Landry:

“Confidence comes from knowing what you’re doing. If you are prepared for something, you usually do it. If not, you usually fall flat on your face.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Late last evening, I was gathering information about college football to use tomorrow for the inaugural Football Friday for the season.  And then, I went down a rabbit hole for about two hours chasing stuff that is not sufficiently material to be called “ghosts”.  Let me use this morning to take you on this journey into phantasmagoria…

It all began when I ran across the fact that UMass will be part of the MAC this year.  I guess I should have known that – – but I did not – – and the news struck me in a curmudgeonly way.  I often make fun of MAC football, particularly those televised games in late October/early November on Tuesday nights when one can count the house on TV because no one is there.  Added to that sort of scorn is the fact that some teams in the MAC recently have been “less than fully competent” on the field.  Kent State last year was the only winless team in Division 1-AA and they won the Brothel Defense Award for 2024.

I figured that UMass would fit right into the MAC.  In fact, UMass is a two-time winner of the Brothel Defense Award back in 2021 and then again in 2023.  I was contemplating a competition between UMass and Kent State in a “race to the bottom” and immediately found that UMass will visit Kent State on October 11^th.  It was at this point that a thought entered my mind:

• The MAC is where high school football aspirations go to die.

I quickly realized that it was way too harsh.  I know that Ben Roethlisberger played for Miami (Ohio) and went on to recognize his football aspirations.  I also know that Jason Whitlock played for Ball State and even though Whitlock never made it to the NFL, he has been hugely successful as a sportswriter and TV commentator.  That is when the rabbit hole appeared, and I saw a white rabbit scurry into the hole with me in hot pursuit:

• Has the MAC produced solid NFL players?

The short answer is, “Yes”.  However, the way I got to the point where I could say something so terse took about two hours of Googling.  From that search, I am confident that Ben Roethlisberger is the best QB to have emerged from the MAC, but I was surprised to find as many pass catchers of note who were MAC alums:

• Antonio Brown (Central Michigan)
• Julian Edelman (Kent State)
• Antonio Gates (Kent State)  HoF
• Randy Moss (Marshall)  HoF

I only found one running back who ”made it” in the NFL out of the MAC.  Michael Turner (Northern Illinois) played nine years in the NFL and was invited to the Pro Bowl twice and made the All-Pro team once.

That is not a long list of offensive “producers” coming out of the MAC and the reason for that seems to me to be that there have been some outstanding defensive players from those schools.  Just consider these four linebackers who are MAC products:

• James Harrison (Kent State)
• Jack Lambert (Kent State)  HoF
• Khalil Mack (Buffalo)
• Jason Taylor (Akron)

Two defensive linemen you have heard from and about who played in the MAC were:

• Maxx Crosby (Eastern Michigan)
• Bob Rowe (Western Michigan)

It is too early to know if Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) belongs to a compendium such as this, but he certainly had a highly competent rookie season for the Eagles in 2024.  Clearly my idea that the MAC is a graveyard for high school football aspirations was overblown – -but I could not stop there and get on with what I started out to do.  No, I then wondered:

• Has UMass sent any talent ahead to the NFL that is comparable to other MAC schools?

From my set of Google inquiries, the short answer to that is, “No”.  Here is what I found to be the notable UMass contributions to professional football:

• Victor Cruz – – WR
• Vlad Ducasse – – OL
• Greg Landry – – QB

Looks to me as if UMass will need to step up its game to keep pace with its new conference compatriots …

I hope this journey into chasing ghosts has been entertaining – and sufficiently scary – such that you do not allow yourselves to get sucked into similar vortices in the future.

Finally, the only way to close out today’s rant is to hear from Lewis Carroll:

“If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.”

And …

“That’s the reason they’re called lessons, because they lesson from day to day.”

And …

“She generally gave herself very good advice, (though she very seldom followed it).”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

On Opening Day for the MLB 2025 regular season, the Milwaukee Brewers had the eighth lowest expenditure on player salaries in the game.  According to USA Today back in April 2025, the Brewers payroll was $115,136,277.  Let me ignore that level of specificity and say the payroll was $115M.  Here is perspective on that figure:

• Five MLB teams – – Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies and Blue Jays – – had Opening Day payrolls MORE THAN TWICE AS MUCH as the Brewers did.
• The Brewers’ payroll was $5.5M LESS THAN the Colorado Rockies’ payroll.
• Five of the seven teams with payrolls less than the Brewers’ payroll – – Marlins, A’s, Rays, White Sox, Pirates – – are notorious for keeping player costs well below league average.

And yet, as of this morning, the Milwaukee Brewers sport the best record in MLB by a comfortable margin.  The Brewers are 79-45; that is 7 games better than the Blue Jays who hold the second best record as of this morning.  On Sunday night, the Brewers had a 14-game winning streak broken by the Reds; that was the second double-digit winning streak by the Brewers for this season.

Can the Brewers keep this up – – or have they “peaked too soon”?  As of today, the Brewers project to win 101 games in 2025; no other National League team projects to win as many as 95 games which means the Brewers may be able to coast into the playoffs rested and refreshed.  That may or not turn out to be a benefit, but I think this year’s “plucky underdog” has been identified.

Moving on …  The Washington Nationals are not presently considered one of MLB/s chronic “low-payroll teams”, but they should get more scrutiny in that department.  The Nats have had some great young talent that they either lost to free agency, or they traded away to avoid having to compete for their services in free agency.  Here is an alphabetical list:

• Bryce Harper
• Anthony Rendon
• Juan Soto
• Trea Turner

When the Nats traded Soto to the Padres, the Nats received an excellent haul of young players who are respectable MLB participants in their early 20s.  CJ Abrams and James Wood will be in MLB for the next decade at least and MacKenzie Gore is reportedly considered a “top-of-the-rotation starter” at the age of 26.  Gore’s contract situation is an interesting one given the Nats’ history of keeping salaries in check.

For 2025, Gore is being paid $2.89M on a one-year deal; that contract was reached as a way to avoid salary arbitration in the last offseason.  Gore faces two more years of potential salary arbitration with the Nats in control, but a pitcher identified as a “top-of-the-rotation starter” is going to be able to point to comparables elsewhere in MLB well in excess of $2.89M.  Just so you know, Gore’s agent is Scott Boras just in case you thought the agent here might be a rookie who could miss such comparisons(s).

There was some rumbling around the trade deadline that the Nats might listen to offers for MacKenzie Gore rather than face off with Boras twice in arbitration and then ultimately in free agency discussions.  Nats’ owners chose to fire their manager and GM in that timeframe and the interim GM held onto Gore as an important asset for the team.  I probably would have done the same were I in that situation; MacKenzie Gore was too young to give up on a month ago; remember, he pitched in the All-Star Game in mid-July of this year.

However, since that All-Star Game appearance, things have not gone well for either the Nats or MacKenzie Gore.  Since the all-Star Game:

• Gore has started 6 times.  His record is 1-4 in those games
• His ERA in those 6 games is north of 8.00.
• In 27.2 innings, he has walked 15 batters and given up 36 hits – – WHIP = 1.85

I will be surprised if the negotiations leading up to and potentially through arbitration in this offseason for MacKenzie Gore do not generate a tad of animosity and I will be very interested to see what sort of contract Gore plays under in 2026 – – because to a large extent, that contract will impact the 2027 contract which is the final year of salary arbitration with the Nats.

Finally, this from P. J. O’Rourke:

“I live in New Hampshire. We’re in favor of global warming. Eleven hundred more feet of sea-level rises? I’ve got beachfront property. You tell us up there, ‘By the end of the century, New York City could be underwater,’ and we say, ‘Your point is?’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Over the weekend, the English Premier League began its 2025/26 season with ten matches.  At least one of the sides promoted from the Championship won its first game of this season; Sunderland beat West Ham by a score of 3-0.  Sunderland may not remain in this company, but for the moment they are lumped in with Manchester City, Tottenham, Liverpool and Arsenal; that is heady space for the Sunderland Black Cats.

The folks in the UK take their futbol more seriously than Americans take NFL football or college football.  A former manager of the Manchester United squad – – Alex Ferguson – – became Sir Alex Ferguson when he was knighted by Queen Elizabeth II in1999.  I wondered if that ceremony was solely for his futbol achievements or perhaps if there was some other societal contribution that he had made to his country.  Please do not consider my “research” into that question as extensive or authoritative, but the best I can come up with is that he was knighted for a “treble-winning season” in futbol.  His Manchester United team:

• Won the EPL title – – and – –
• Won the FA Cup – – and – –
• Won the UEFA Champions League – – all in one season.

Ferguson’s time at Manchester United started in 1986 and lasted until 2013.  In that time his teams won the EPL 13 times, and they won the UEFA crown twice.  People said he was a “visionary” in the world of futbol and that he would be a hard act to follow.  I have no idea about his credentials as a “visionary” but since Sir Alex retired in 2013, Manchester United has had 10 managers – – counting those identified as “interims” or “caretakers”.  The longest tenured manager since Ferguson lasted 35 months in the job.  Maybe knighthood was more than well deserved …

Moving on …  The NCAA concluded its investigation into the “Michigan sign-stealing matter” and chose to penalize the school and some coaches for  the infractions.  The NCAA rolled in some recruiting violations as well and handed down a series of penalties for the school and individuals:

• Michigan football will be on probation for four years
• Michigan athletics pay a series of fines and cannot earn post-season revenue for two years.  This agglomeration of financial penalties is estimated to come to $20M.
• There will be some limitations on football recruitment for the next year.
• Jim Harbaugh has an ongoing 4-year “show cause order” which means it would be very difficult for him to get a major college coaching job in that time.  For his lack of cooperation in this investigation, he got another 10 years tacked onto that existing ban meaning he would not be easily hired in college football until 2039.
• Sherone Moore (current Michigan coach) will be suspended for 3 games in this upcoming season.
• Connor Stalions – – the architect of the sign-stealing enterprise – – has an “8-year show cause order” attached to him.

I think the NCAA got this one “more right than wrong” – – and that is not usually what I think about NCAA penalties for rule-breakers.  Please note, there are no “vacated wins” or “any pretense that specific games never happened”.  There is plenty of evidence as to what happened when Michigan took the field and won the CFP under Jim Harbaugh.  Pretending that some other team actually won those games would have been an explicit admission by the NCAA that it was not in a position to hand out any punishment(s).

The NCAA may now realize – – even if they would choose not to admit it publicly – – that college football is simply professional football played by teams that represent colleges or universities instead of cities.  The NCAA hit Michigan where it will hurt for a while –  – in the pocketbook.  Forfeiting $20M in revenue over a couple of years is not nearly a “death penalty”, but it will not be something the Michigan Athletic Department can just laugh at behind closed doors.  These penalties are not symbolic; these penalties are real.

Switching gears …  The flurry of lime-green dildos arriving on the courts during WNBA games seems to have petered out – – sorry, could not resist.  However, I think that if another one should make an appearance in a WNBA venue, we should give the offending member a taxonomic name.  Let me suggest:

• Phallus Felonious.

Finally, it seems proper to close today with this from Sir Alex Ferguson:

“Sometimes you’re not sure about a player. Sometimes you doubt. Sometimes you have to guess. Sometimes… you just know.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The NFL is clearly the top dog when it comes to pro sports enterprises in the US, but the NFL has suffered a pair of losses in courtrooms this week demonstrating that it is not nearly invincible.  Since the following will deal with legal matters, I need to offer the standard disclaimer; I am not an attorney and my comments here are not to be taken as authoritative in any sense of the word.

Jon Gruden filed a lawsuit against the NFL several years ago claiming that the leaking of some of his emails with an NFL employee led to his being fired by the Las Vegas Raiders as their head coach.  The NFL contends that such a dispute would be handled by the NFL’s closed arbitration process; Gruden wants it out in open court.  The league had a ruling in its favor until this week when the Nevada Supreme Court heard the case en banc and ruled 5-2 that the case would not be heard in the NFL’s arbitration process but that it could proceed in open court.  Even more interesting to me is the statement by the Court in its ruling that the NFL’s arbitration process is “unconscionable”; that statement cannot be welcome along Mahogany Row at NFL HQs.

I have been in favor of hearing this case in court since the filing because there are potentially some salacious details that could be exposed in such a proceeding.  The NFL said it would appeal this ruling to the US Supreme Court and that leads to my uninformed misunderstandings on the matter:

• Many cases that are heard by the US Supreme Court deal with issues of constitutionality.  I cannot point to a part of the US Constitution that favors arbitration over a trial in disputes involving a pro football league.
• Many  cases that are heard by the US Supreme Court deal with issues of Federal Law and adherence with Federal Law.  Once again, I cannot think of a Federal Law that may have been violated by the ruling in Nevada that will be appealed.

If the US Supreme Court refuses to take the Gruden case or if the ruling there goes against the NFL, the league would face a choice.  It could reach a settlement with Jon Gruden, or it can go through a public trial – – with disclosure circumstances.  At least for now, Gruden seems not to be particularly interested in a settlement.  Earlier this week after winning in the Nevada court, he said:

“I’m looking forward to having the truth come out, and I want to make sure what happened to me doesn’t happen to anyone else.”

That does not sound like someone looking for a payday settlement.  In fact, Gruden also said this week that he would really like to get back into coaching at the collegiate level.  Speaking to the Georgia team – presumably at the invitation of Georgia coach, Kirby Smart – Gruden said he very much wanted to get back to coaching and would love to do so in the SEC.  There are chapters yet unwritten in this matter …

The other setback for the NFL is in a similar vein.  Brian Flores and co-plaintiffs have sued the NFL and three individual teams claiming racial discrimination in hiring.  Again, the NFL claimed that this had to be adjudicated in its arbitration format; this week, a US Court of Appeals ruled that at least some of the claims made by the plaintiffs should move forward in the court system.  That ruling by the Court of Appeals confirmed a ruling by a US District Judge about 2 years ago regarding the venue for settling this dispute.

Once again, the league must not be happy with commentary contained in the ruling of the court:

• The Court said that the NFL’s constitution which sets up the arbitration process “contractually provides for no independent arbitral forum, no bilateral dispute resolution, and no procedure.”

And …

• “ … it [the NFL’s arbitration process] offends basic presumptions of our arbitration jurisprudence” because the final decision is to be made by the NFL’s “principal executive officer.”

Here is my takeaway from the above.  If this ruling is affirmed – or allowed to stand – by whatever appeal the NFL makes wherever it makes it, the entire legal foundation for the NFL’s arbitration process is called into question for just about any future confrontation.  Once again, I doubt that anyone was popping champagne corks along Mahogany Row at NFL HQs when this news arrived.

Moving on …  About a month ago, MLB Commish, Rob Manfred, said that he thought the Minnesota Twins would be sold and that the deal would close sometime later this season.  I and some other commentators thought that the Twins’ housecleaning at the trade deadline – – trading away 10 players from their 26-man roster – – was a way to clear the books for the new owner(s).  Not so …

Yesterday, the current owners of the Twins – – the Pohlad family – – announced that they would take on two limited partners but that the Pohlad family would retain control of the Twins’ franchise.  As of yesterday, the two new limited partners were not identified and as of yesterday there is a segment of the Twins’ fanbase that is not happy.  Some have suggested boycotting the team and that would not be good news for the Pohlad family or the new limited partners.

• Twins rank 23^rd in home attendance in 2025 – – 22,721 fans per game
• MLB average attendance in 2025 is 29,301 fans per game

Finally, here is some food for thought from Mark Twain:

“God made the Idiot for practice, and then He made the School Board.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports ………