The Sports Curmudgeon

Let me lead today with a personal note/announcement.  Over the weekend, I had a birthday and that birthday inducted me as a member in good standing of the Octogenarian Club.  I hear it is an exclusive entity – – but its benefits are not clearly stated.    One day at a time …

I received a call from #2 son last weekend for two reasons; the first was to wish me a happy birthday and the second was to tell me about a happening in an international cricket match that he knew I would miss.  Let me set the stage here:

• On a trip to Australia in 2012, our tour leader patiently and in great detail explained the rules and the scoring of cricket to me.  By the time I left to go home, I had the most rudimentary understanding of the game.
• When our plane landed at Dulles Airport, I probably retained 90% of that rudimentary understanding.
• Today, it is probably at 5%.

The story here deals with an international cricket match between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.  A Sri Lankan batter was “timed out” – – which in an analogy to American baseball means he was declared out and sent back to the dugout – – because he was not ready to bat within 2 minutes of being on the pitch (field).  The chin strap on his helmet broke as he was tightening it and by the time he got a new one and adjusted it and the like, more than 3 minutes had elapsed.  Evidently, there is a 2-minute clock in cricket and when the Bangladesh bowler – – the analog is a pitcher in MLB – – asked the umpire to “dismiss” the batter, the umpire consulted with his colleagues and sent the batter off.

I can anticipate your thought at this point:

• Why is this interesting?

Glad you asked, this is indeed the rule in cricket.  However, this batter – – named Angelo Matthews – – is the first batter ever to be “timed out” and “dismissed” in an international cricket match, and international cricket has been played since 1844.

Here in the US, there was a lot of sturm und drang over the idea of instituting a “pitch clock” in baseball.  In cricket, which many consider to be an ancestor of baseball, they have had a “batter clock” on the books for 180 years and just now was the first enforced violation of that rule.

Another unusual sporting situation happened over the weekend.  In an English Premier League game between Luton Town and Bournemouth, the Luton Town captain, Tom Lockyer suffered cardiac arrest on the pitch in the second half of the game.  Fortunately, medical personnel were able to attend to him and Lockyer was reported to be “stable and undergoing further tests” in a nearby hospital.  As I read the reports of this incident, I got to this point and thought that it was great that the medics were as successful/competent as they must have been, and I recalled the Damar Hamlin incident from a year ago in the Bills/Bengals game.

However, in the later part of the report about the EPL game, it turns out that this is Lockyer’s second cardiac arrest incident.  Earlier this year, Lockyer also collapsed on the pitch in the game that Luton Town won that earned them promotion to the Premier League.  Over the summer he underwent heart surgery, cleared rehab and returned to the team.  Now this …  I hope this sequence of events is not an omen regarding Damar Hamlin and his future health status.

• Absit omen!

The EPL made the rational decision to “abandon” the game with the score tied at 1-1.  I do wonder how they might handle that in the final standings for this year given that Luton Town is currently in the relegation zone but has had one less game recorded in the standings than the rest of the league.

• At the end of the year, will this game count as a draw?
• Will it be replayed from the start?
• Will it take up from where it was “abandoned”?
• Will it just be ignored?

Moving on …  Kyle McCord was the starting QB for Ohio St. in every game in 2023.  Yesterday, McCord announced that he has decided to transfer to Syracuse next year.  His season stats were 3,170 yards passing with 24 TDs and 6 INTs and those numbers seem positive to me.  So, I am a bit surprised that he would choose to take a step down from Ohio St. to Syracuse – – no offense to Syracuse fans but in the hierarchy of college football over the last 40 years …

Finally, as I contemplate writing these rants at the start of my ninth decade in residence on this planet, let me close with these words by English author, Jerome K. Jerome:

“I like work; it fascinates me.  I can sit and look at it for hours.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Earlier this week, my long-suffering wife and I hosted friends for dinner.  Our guests are “irregular readers” of these rants and as they were leaving after dinner, one of them asked me for an “advance look” at what might be the topic for the next day’s rant.  My answer was that I had no idea – – and rarely do – – what I would focus on until I sat down to attack the keyboard.  The one exception is Thursday evenings, I know then that tomorrow will be a Football Friday.

And today is Friday so let me begin – – as usual – – with a review of last week’s highly embarrassing “Betting Bundle”:

• College  =  0-0-0   =>   Season  =  19-9-0
• NFL  =  0-3-0   =>   Season  =  17-17-0
• Parlays  0-1  Loss  =  $100   =>  Season  7-12  Loss  = $147

Undaunted, I shall press on …

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Earlier this week, Tulane announced and introduced its new head football coach, Jon Sumrall.  Tulane needed a new coach because last year’s coach, Willie Fritz, took the job at Houston; Sumrall comes to Tulane after a couple of highly successful seasons at Troy.  Normally, a coaching change at a Group of Five school is not particularly noteworthy but at his introduction – in and among all the boilerplate/scripted lines and phrases – – Sumrall said this:

“We are going to make the college football playoff and we are going to win it.”

This year, Tulane will take part in the Military Bowl in Annapolis, MD on December 27^th with Va Tech as the opponent.  It is a big step from there to winning the CFP which will expand to 12 teams next year.

Jayden Daniels (QB LSU) won the Heisman Trophy for 2023.  He is the second LSU QB to win that award in the last 5 seasons; Joe Burrow won the award in 2019.  I said previously that I would have voted for Marvin Harrison, Jr. if I had a vote but that if a QB was to win the award again this year, my choice would have been Jayden Daniels.

Some of the schedules for next year have already been released.  I was scanning a couple and did a double-take when I saw the schedule for the University of Florida.  Next year’s Gators need to strap on the helmets extra tight:

• Florida has 3 out of conference games – – Miami, Samford and UCF.  Samford should be a glorified scrimmage, but Miami and UCF will put up a fight.
• Florida has 5 games in the month of November – – Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida St.  No tiptoeing through the tulips there …

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The LA Chargers will have to finish the season without their QB, Justin Herbert who underwent surgery on a broken index finger on this throwing hand.  His replacement last week was Easton Stick.  In case you are not familiar with his CV let me give you a thumbnail:

• Last week in relief of Herbert, he was 13 of 24 for 179 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs.
• Prior to that work, his only appearance in an NFL game was in 2020 and he attempted 1 pass then, completed it for 4 yards – – and that’s it.
• He was a four-year player at Division 1-AA, North Dakota St. and joined the Chargers in 2018.
• He is 28 years old.
• There is no way you might conclude that the Chargers have “rushed him” into action.

Easton Stick is another example of a point I tried to make before; the position of “Backup QB” has become very important in the NFL.  I do not have the interest to go team by team to list all the backup QBs who have been pressed into action this year but let me just name the ones that come immediately to mind without any searching:

1. Tyson Bagent
2. Tim Boyle
3. Jake Browning
4. Tommy DeVito
5. Josh Dobbs
6. Joe Flacco
7. Will Levis
8. Davis Mills
9. Gardner Minshew
10. Nick Mullens
11. Aidan O’Connell
12. Tyrod Taylor
13. Dorian Thompson-Robinson
14. Mitchell Trubisky
15. Clayton Tune
16. Zach Wilson
17. Jameis Winston
18. Bailey Zappe

As if that list is not scary enough, look at this week’s schedule when we get to it and try to recall who started at QB for every team in Week 1.  Almost 40% of the league has had to make a change.   However, before any of the “trauma injury activists” out there decide to crank this up as an evil of the expanded 17-game NFL schedule, please recall that all this pillage and destruction of QBs happened within 13 potential NFL contests for all of the QBs listed here.

The Circa is a relatively new hotel/casino/sportsbook in Las Vegas; it is the home of VSIN broadcasting network and it boasts the largest sportsbook seating area in the world.  The Circa started an NFL survival pool at the start of the 2023 season; the entry fee was $1000.  There were over 9000 entries so the last man standing will take home $9.2M.  From that starting group of about 9200 folks, there are a total of only 13 survivors as of this week …

As of this morning, I think the Chicago Bears are the most interesting story in the NFL.  It has been a while since the Bears have won a playoff game; since the start of the millennium, the Bears have only had 7 winning seasons; in 2023, their record stands as 5-8.  Why is that interesting?

Well, the Bears seem to be putting things together and Justin Fields is beginning to play at a high level much more predictably than he did in the past.  Last year, the Bears were 3-14 but they stuck with Fields and did not draft a QB.  In fact, they traded their high pick to the Panthers and one of the pieces of that trade was this year’s Panthers’ first round pick.  As of this morning the Bears will own the overall #1 pick in the draft.  If they stuck with Fields after last season, it is hard to imagine that the Bears would jettison him now and draft a rookie QB; so, maybe the Bears might add Marvin Harrison, Jr. as a weapon for Fields to use as needed?  Another possibility would be to trade that overall #1 pick – remember the Bears still have a pick of their own in Round One – and acquire several picks to add to the roster.

The remaining schedule for the Bears presents an interesting picture:

• At Browns – – Joe Flacco has been great for the last two games; can he keep it up?
• Vs. Cards – – Bears will be favored at home
• Va. Falcons – – Bears will be favored at home
• At Packers

If the Bears manage to win this week and hold serve against the Cards and Falcons, they would be 8-8 heading to Green Bay for the final game of the year possibly with a playoff berth on the line.

That is why I think the Chicago Bears are the most interesting story in the NFL this morning…

Let me review some of last week’s games:

Saints 28  Panthers 6:  Another example of a head coach being fired and the team continuing to lose despite the change.  The Panthers outgained the Saints 303 yards to 207 yards and lost by 22 points; that does not happen often.  It takes a special kind of ineptitude to do that.    Looking at the overall stats, it is difficult to see how the Panthers lost:

• Panthers’ Time of Possession = 34:50  Saints’ Time of Possession = 25:10
• Panthers’ Turnovers = 2  Saints’ Turnovers = 1

Here is the stat that could explain everything, The Panthers went for it on fourth down seven times in the game and only converted once.  This win puts the Saints in a three-way tie atop the NFC South; the loss puts the Panthers in last place in the NFC South and it makes the Panthers the only NFC team mathematically eliminated from the playoffs already.

Bengals 34  Colts 14:  The score was tied 14-14 at the half.  The Bengals continued to score in the second half while the Colts eschewed their opportunities.

Browns 31  Jags 27:  Joe Flacco turned in an excellent performance, especially considering he had been with the team for about an hour and half.  Here is Flacco’s stat line:

• 26 of 45 for 311 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT

The Jags maintained their lead in the AFC South because the Colts lost, and the Texans also lost last weekend.

Bears 28  Lions 13:  Justin Fields acquitted himself nicely in this game:

• 19 of 33 for 223 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs – – PLUS – –
• 12 carries for 58 yards with 1 TD

The Lions still have a comfortable 2-game lead in the NFC North, but the Lions have not played well since Thanksgiving.  The score was 13-10 at the half; the Lions received the kickoff in the third quarter and here are the results of their drives in the third quarter:

• 3 plays – – 4 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 7 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – minus-1 yard – – PUNT
• 2 plays – – 6 yards – – FUMBLE

That is the sort of “Lions football” fans would recognize over the  past 30 years or so…

Jets 30  Texans 6:  I said last week that DeMeco Ryans would have to work to be sure his team did not take the Jets lightly.  Well, the Jets put on an offensive eruption here; this is the second-highest point total for the Jets this season.  In fact, over the previous 6 games, the Jets had averaged only 9.7 points per game.  The Texans only managed 175 yards on offense (58 yards passing) for the game while the Jets amassed 347 yards.  Zach Wilson had 302 yards passing with 2 TDs and no INTs.  Wow!  Even worse news for the Texans is that CJ Stroud was in the concussion protocol and had to be replaced by Davis Mills last week.

Ravens 37  Rams 31 (OT):  This was the game on in my viewing area in the early Sunday time slot and it was one of the more interesting games of the season.  It was back and forth for the entire game.  For the 60 minutes of regulation time, the largest lead in the game was 5 points and there were 9 lead changes.  The loss – – breaking a 3-game winning streak for the Rams – – puts the Rams 4 games behind the Niners in the NFC West which is virtually insurmountable with only 4 games left to play.  In terms of a wild card slot, the Rams are “in the mix” but are not “sitting pretty.  Meanwhile the Ravens are 10-3 this morning and have the best record in the AFC.

Bucs 29  Falcons 25:  I have no rooting interest in the Bucs and I have no particular dislike for the Falcons, but I wanted the Bucs to win this game as I saw the Saints were toasting the Panthers.  In the squishy-soft NFC South there is a three-way tie for the division lead and all three teams are below .500.  For now:

• Saints are in third place with a poorer division record than the Falcons or Bucs.
• Falcons are in second place with a poorer conference record than the Bucs.
• Bucs are in first place – – by default.

The Falcons lost this game despite outgaining the Bucs 434 yards to 290 yards.  Mike Evans had an uncharacteristically bad day catching only one pass for 8 yards.

Vikings 3  Raiders 0:  No, these teams did not take Mr. Peabody’s Wayback Machine in order to play the game in the 1940s.  However, the two teams combined to produce only 433 yards of offense in the game.  The two teams also combined to punt the ball 17 times in the game.  The lone score in the game was a 56-yard field goal with 2 minutes remaining.  The interesting thing about the Vikes this morning is that they are two games behind the Lions in the NFC North race – – AND – – the Vikes and Lions play each other twice between now and the end of the season.

Niners 28  Seahawks 16:  The Niners outgained the Seahawks 527 yards to 324 yards; normally, that level of dominance yields a win by more than 12 points.  The Niners were clearly the better team on the field here.  The win gives the Niners a record of 10-3 which is the same record held by the Cowboys and the Eagles – – but the Niners have already beaten both the Cowboys and the Eagles head-to-head.  With this win, the Niners have clinched a playoff slot.

Cowboys 33  Eagles 13:  Here is another game where one team (Cowboys) was clearly the better team on the field.  The Eagles’ TD came on a Scoop-and-score; the offense only managed 2 field goals in the game.  The Cowboys forced 3 turnovers in the game and outgained the Eagles by 70 yards.  Cowboys’ rookie kicker, Brandon Aubrey kicked 3 field goals in the game from 50 yards, 59 yards and 60 yards.  In the history of the NFL, no kicker has had a game where he hit two field goals of 59+ yards.

Pats 21  Steelers 18:  The Steelers’ offense came to life two weeks ago and gained more than 400 yards in a game.  Last week, the Steelers’ offense reverted to non-productive status gaining only 264 yards.  Bailey Zappe was the Pats’ QB in the game and posted this impressive stat line:

• 19 of 28 for 240 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT

The Pats led 21-10 at the half and never scored again.  Here are the Steelers’ possessions in the second half trying to erase an 11-point deficit:

• 11 plays – – 32 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 7 yards – – PUNT
• 4 plays – – 9 yards – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 4 plays – – 26 yards – – TOUCHDOWN
• 7 plays – – 13 yards – – PUNT
• 6 plays – – 22 yards – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 2 plays – – 45 yards – – END OF GAME

Despite the win, the Pats are officially eliminated from the AFC playoffs as of today.  C’est la guerre …

Giants 24  Packers 22:  Don’t look now, but the Giants have won three games in a row.  They won this one by running the ball 34 times for 209 yards (6.1 yards per carry).  It was not a pretty game; the two teams combined to turn the ball over 5 times.

Titans 28  Dolphins 27:  The Dolphins led by two scores with 3 minutes left in the game and gave up two TDs and a two-point conversion in that span.  The Dolphins still lead the AFC East by 2 games, but they are a game behind the Ravens in the race for the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs.  That is important because the Dolphins are better at home than they are on the road.  Will Levis put on a show for the Titans in this game:

• 23 of 38 for 327 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT

The Dolphins won the turnover battle 3 to 1 but that was not enough to secure a victory.

As of today, the four lowest scoring teams in the NFL are:

1. Pats – – 169 points
2. Giants – – 183 points
3. Panthers – – 197 points
4. Jets – – 201 points.

As a testament to the adage that “On any given Sunday …”, three of those four teams won lasts week; only the Panthers lost.

Just to let you know, Sam Howell was not sacked at all last week – – because the Commanders had a BYE Week.  Going into this week’s action, Howell has been sacked 58 times in 13 games and that projects to just shy of the all-time NFL record.  Stay tuned…  The Commanders’ final four games are:

• At Rams
• At Jets
• Vs Niners
• Vs Cowboys

Those final three opponents play a lot of defense…

 

Games this Week:

 

BYE Weeks are a thing of the past in this regular season; everyone is in action from here until the start of the playoffs.  This week is the first of two Saturdays with a full day of NFL action.

About 60 years ago, Dinah Washington sang:

“What a difference a day makes.

Twenty-four little hours …”

I found myself humming that little tune last night watching the Raiders beat the Chargers 63-21.  That was the same Raiders’ team that was shut out and lost a game 3-0 last Sunday (see above).  Of course, the generosity of the Chargers in terms of turnovers and short fields played a part in this debacle, but the Raiders took advantage of the turnovers and led 42-0 at halftime. To give you a flavor of the shellacking here:

• Four times the Raiders began a drive in Chargers’ territory.  All four drives resulted in a Raider TD.
• The Raiders scored on a “Scoop-and-score”.
• The Raiders scored on a “Pick-Six”.

For the record, the Total Line for the Raiders/Chargers game last night was 36 points.  Anyone who bet the UNDER could have ripped up the ticket before halftime.

There is always line movement for games as the week progresses and as news about injuries or whatever hits the street.  It seems to me that there are no more line movements this week than usual, but the movements this week seem larger than usual.  Whatever …  Here are the numbers.

(Sat Early PM) Vikes at Bengals – 3.5 (40):  The spread opened with the Vikes as one-point favorites, but the line quickly flipped to the Bengals as favorites and then climbed to this level.  Both teams are 7-6 and both are relevant in the playoff discussion – – even though I cannot fathom how that is the case.  Back in September if you told me that this game would be Nick Mullens versus Jake Browning, I would have assumed that it would be a candidate for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Instead, this is an important game for the playoffs in both conferences.

(Sat Late PM) Steelers at Colts – 1.5 (41):  Both teams would be in the playoffs if the season had ended last week; that will almost assuredly not be the case for the loser of this game come Sunday morning.  Neither team is “fun to watch” but this is a playoff game of sorts here in mid-December.

(Sat Nite) Broncos at Lions – 4.5 (48):  The Lions have lost two of their last three games and have not played well since Thanksgiving; they lead their division but are trending down and not up in the latter part of the regular season.  The Broncos are the opposite.  They do not lead their division but have been playing much better in recent weeks than they did at the beginning of the season.  The Broncos will be playing their third road game in a row here.

Falcons – 3 at Panthers (34):  This game was my runner-up as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week, but this is a must-win for the Falcons, so I’ll cut the game some slack.  After this game, the three remaining games for the Falcons look to be toss-ups.  If they lose here, they should probably hang things up for the year.  The Panthers enter the game with a 1-12 record having been outscored by 144 points over the season.  Normally, in low scoring games, I prefer to take the points but the problem with the Panthers is that their offense just doesn’t score; give me the Falcons to win and cover on the road against a bad opponent; put that in the “Betting Bundle.”

Bears at Browns – 3 (38): The Bears have won three of their last four games and have impressed in each game (see above).  The trade deadline acquisition of Montez Sweat seems to have been an energy tonic for the Bears’ defense.  The Browns’ defense is for real; that unit is capable of keeping the Browns in a game against any opponent and Joe Flacco had a brilliant outing last week for the Browns.  Both teams are still playoff-relevant, but the loser here may lose its relevance.

Bucs at Packers – 3 (42):  Both teams need this game.  The Bucs lead the NFC South via tiebreakers; the Falcons have a patsy this week in the Panthers and the Saints are playing the Giants who – – having won 3 games in a row – – may have emptied the gun.  The Packers need the game to stay within hailing distance of the Lions who seem to be coming back to the pack – – pun intended – – in the NFC North.

Texans at Titans – 3 (37):  The spread opened with the Texans as 3.5-point favorite; given the current spread, that is a major line move indeed.  The injury bug may be residing in Houston at the moment because the list of players who did not practice for the Texans early this week included:

• Will Anderson, Jr. – – LB
• Blake Cashman – – LB
• Nico Collins – – WR
• Noah Fant – – TE
• CJ Stroud – – QB

The magnitude of the line shift indicates to me that the betting public assumes CJ Stroud will not clear concussion protocol and the Texans will go with Davis Mills this week.

Giants at Saints – 6 (38.5):  This is not a typical selection for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week, but it matches up two teams with losing records who offer only marginal viewing excitement potential.  I do not believe that Tommy DeVito is the long-term replacement for Eli Manning as the QB for the Giants.  Having said that, Tommy DeVito is playing well and very confidently.  The Saints need the game much more than the Giants do, but the Saints’ team has had more than its share of turmoil this year and no one looks to be playing comfortably on the Saints’ sideline.  Maybe the major drama element for this game is:

• Who will be on the receiving end of a temper tantrum by Derek Carr this week?

Jets at Dolphins – 9 (37.5):  The spread opened with the Dolphins as 13.5-point favorites and has been dropping all week long.  In fact, this morning, I found the line at 8 points at one Internet sportsbook.  The Total Line has also moved a lot starting the week at 41 points.  The Dolphins are hit with injuries on their offensive line and with a leg injury to Tyreek Hill, who did not practice earlier this week.  With Hill in and out of the game – – and playing at less than 100% efficiency – – last week, the Dolphins’ offense was not nearly what it has been in previous games.

Niners – 12 at Cards (48):  All I can say here is that if you think the Cards can win this game, you can get them on the Money Line at +590.  Over to you …

Commanders at Rams – 6 (49.5):  The Total Line opened at 46 points and rose slowly but surely as the week wore on.  I found it as high as 50.5 points this morning and as low as 49 points.  The Commanders’ defense has given up the most points in the league so far in 2023 – – 395 points or 30.4 points per game.  That explains why the Commanders record is 4-9 and how they lost 4 in a row prior to their BYE Week last week.  The Rams are not the offensive juggernaut they were a couple years ago when they won the Super Bowl, but they are an above average offense.  I think the Rams will put up some big numbers on the stat sheet and on the scoreboard here; I like the Rams to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.  I also like the game to go OVER because the Commanders will need to play keep-up/catch-up and will be throwing the ball all over the field; put that in the “Betting Bundle” too.

Cowboys at Bills – 2 (50.5):  Not only have the Cowboys won 5 games in a row, but they have also scored 30+ points in all five wins; they are hitting on all cylinders.  The Bills’ playoff hopes will suffer more with a loss here than would the Cowboys’ hopes but a loss by the Cowboys would make their pursuit of the #1 seed in the NFC awfully difficult.I think this is the Game of the Week based on the quality of the two teams plus the importance to both sides.  The weather in Buffalo is often a factor in mid-December but the forecast for gametime has temperatures in the 40s with the possibility of a “shower in the area.”  Should be a great game to watch…

Chiefs – 7.5 at Pats (37):  The spread here opened at 10.5 points and has dropped slowly and steadily all week long.  The Chiefs have lost three of their last four games even though the Chiefs’ offense, which had been problematical early in the season, has looked like a much more competent and cohesive unit.  The Pats won last week with Bailey Zappe lighting it up (see above).  I think both defenses will do well in this game.

(Sun Nite): Ravens – 3 at Jags (43):  Lots of line movement here; the spread opened at 6 points and the Total Line opened at 39.5 points.  I guess folks were impressed with Trevor Lawrence’s grit and determination in last week’s loss to the Browns where he played with what looked like 3 pounds of tape on his injured ankle.  The Jags get to play another bruising defense this week and still hold a one-game lead over both the Colts and Texans going into the weekend action.

(Mon Nite): Eagles – 4 at Seahawks (47.5):  The Eagles have lost two games in a row and have lost both of them badly.  Granted those two opponents were the Niners and the Cowboys, but still …  The Eagles’ defense has been porous in their recent losses and cannot cover for situations where the offense turns the ball over – – as the Eagles did 3 times last week.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks have lost 4 games in a row, but a win here would even them up at 7-7 with 3 winnable games left on the schedule.  This is an important game for the Eagles; it is a vital game for the Seahawks.

So let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Rams – 6 over Commanders
• Rams/Commanders OVER 49.5
• Falcons – 3 over Panthers

And here are two Money Line Parlays for fun:

• Chiefs @ minus-360
• Falcons @ minus-160   $100 wager to win $108.

And …

• Rams @ minus 275
• Ravens @ minus 170  $100 wager to win $117.

Finally, I will close this week with this comment by former head football coach at Michigan St., Duffy Daugherty:

“I could have been a Rhodes Scholar except for my grades.”

            But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

If you live anywhere other than in Washington DC or its surrounding suburbs, you might have a positive sports outlook this morning.  Such is not quite the case here in “The DMV” – – the District, Maryland and Virginia.  Just a quick overlook:

• The Commanders are 4-9 and in last place in the NFC East
• The Wizards are 3-20 and in last place in the NBA’s Southeast Division
• The Caps are 14-8-3 and in fifth place in the NHL’s Metropolitan Division
• The Nats aren’t playing but finished dead last in the NL East last year.

And yesterday, the owner of the Caps and the Wizards reached a “handshake deal” with the Governor of Virginia to build a new arena in Alexandria, VA and to move those two teams out of the District.  You cannot imagine the outpouring of anger/resentment here this morning.  Not since Cruella de Ville sought to skin dalmatian puppies to make a spotted overcoat has anyone done anything approaching the level of evil that was on display when the team owner and the Governor held their press conference.

The Caps and Wizards play in a facility called the Capital One Arena.  It is about 25 years old, and it needs more than a facelift but less than a full tear-down-and-rebuild.  The owner asked the District for $600M for the “renovations and upgrades”.  The mayor here has fundamentally ignored this request; she did not – – figuratively of course – – flip the bird at the request but she absolutely paid it no attention.  Into that vacuum charged the Governor of Virginia seeing this as an opportunity for him to leave the legacy of his administration.  [Aside:  The Virginia Constitution limits Governors to a single term so each one enters office as a “lame duck” with only 4 years to craft their “legacy”.]

I have always opposed the “corporate welfare” that is poured upon billionaire sports owners.  If I were to create a more perfect world, that would never happen, but I am not in the business of creating a more perfect world.  The reality is that such largesse is commonplace.  And in a world where benefits of the magnitude of hundreds of millions of dollars are dangled in front of owners, it is foolish to think that they can or would ignore them all.

Think about that for a moment.  Team owners are – generally – billionaires who have made their fortunes in the world of business/finance.  People do not become billionaires if they are not capable of recognizing a “good deal” when one presents itself.  Ted Leonsis owns the Caps and the Wizards – – and a few other sporting assets of lesser import – – and what he did is to look at whatever it was that the governor had to offer and juxtaposed it with the mayor’s indifference to his perceived need for arena improvements and …  He did not become a billionaire by failing to recognize and capitalize on such situations.

Making the outpouring of angst this morning even sillier is that this deal has dozens of hurdles to cross in Virginia before anyone can put a shovel in the ground and get started on the new facility.  I will go out on a limb and predict here that this deal will have more than a dozen twists and turns before it either gets started or dies an agonizing death.  The only sure-fire winners here are the lawyers in the firms representing litigants in the sure-to-be-filed lawsuits central to or tangential to this handshake deal.  This could be a tsunami of billable hours …

Moving on … There is another sports facility nearby here that is the subject of some contention between the team owners and the State where the facility is located.  I am referring to Camden Yards where the Baltimore Orioles play.  The Orioles’ lease to use the facility to play their home games runs out on 31 December of this year.  If you do not have a calendar handy, that is 17 days from today.  One of the negotiation points that has caused some contention there is a provision that would give the Angelos family – – owners of the Orioles – – developmental rights to the State-owned land around the ballpark.

According to reports, it would be the Angelos family that would get the developmental rights and not any subsequent owners of the Orioles should the family choose to sell the team sometime down the road.  That possibility gains credence from a Bloomberg report from about a week ago that one of the founders of The Carlyle Group is in negotiations to buy the team from the Angelos family.

And in a related vein …  The drama involving these two sports facilities will be totally eclipsed in this little Interstate-95 corridor by the multi-dimensional Kabuki Theater that will unfold as the new owner of the Washington Commanders wheels and deals his way into a new stadium in the area.  The reason that it will be a bigger deal than either of the dramas above has nothing to do with the economics of the situation; it has only to do with the fact that the NFL team is a much bigger deal here in “The DMV” than the Caps, the Wizards and/or the Orioles.  I say that because an NFL stadium is often a white elephant in a landscape as compared to a baseball stadium or a combined basketball/hockey arena.  Do some math …

• An NFL stadium will be in use by an NFL team less than 15 days in a year.  That counts an Exhibition Game plus home games plus possible playoff dates.
• There is no local college football team in “The DMV” to use a new facility here.
• There may be a few large concert events that might be held outdoors at the facility so maybe there could be another 20 such events held during the “good weather season” here and the start of an NFL season.
• Total use is 35 days a year at most or about once every 10 days on average.
• A hockey/basketball arena will be in use by those two teams more than 80 nights in a year.
• Concerts and events of that kind can fit into the calendar easily.
• In “The DMV”, Georgetown could be induced to play its 15 home games there, [Aside:  Georgetown now plays home games at the Capitol One Arena.]
• The potential usage for such a facility is at least 100 days a year and maybe as much as 150 days a year.

The nominal economic benefits of a sports facility depend heavily on the spill-over from sporting events onto the surrounding area.  I don’t need a PhD in economics to understand that a facility that provides 150 days of “spill-over” is more likely to generate a lot more economic benefit for surrounding businesses than a facility that is in use 35 days a year.

Nevertheless, there will be a bidding war for the Commanders’ new field starting very soon.  It is too bad for the DC Mayor that she did not get her oft-stated wish to defund the police there.  If she had been able to accomplish that, she would have about $525M extra in the DC budget to use as part of the bidding for the facility.  C’est la vie…

Finally, since everything today involves dealings with billionaires, let me close with these words from Warren Buffet:

“You should invest in a business that even a fool can run, because some day a fool will.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

 

Move over, Bobby Bonilla.  Make way for Shohei Ohtani as the major domo of deferred payments.  People like to chuckle on July 1^st of every year that the NY Mets must send Bonilla a check for $1.1M and have had to do that since 2010 and will continue to do so through 2035.  Well, if reports from yesterday are even nearly accurate, deferred compensation just went to an entirely new dimension.

Reports say that the structure of Ohtani’s $700M contract over the next 10 years has lots of deferred money involved.

• For each of the 10 years in the span of the contract, the Dodgers will pay Ohtani only $2M each year.
• Therefore, Ohtani will collect only $20M of the contract amount over that period when he will be a member of the Dodgers.
• Then starting in 2034 – one year before Bobby Bonilla’s deferred payments will be discharged – the Dodgers will begin to pay Ohtani $68M per year for the next ten years.

The Mets’ deal with Bonilla was a result of their desire to buy out multiple years on Bonilla’s existing contract but instead of paying the value to him in 2000, they deferred the payments allowing them to accrue a guaranteed 8% interest and do the payouts from 2010 through 2035.  That seemed at the time to be a great deal for the Mets because they were earning lots more than 8% on their investments with Bernie Madoff.  Ooops …!

The Dodgers’ motivation for the deferrals is to reduce the team’s exposure to MLB’s luxury tax which resembles a “salary cap” but really is not.  The deferred money for Ohtani comes at no interest and simply represents a contingent liability on the Dodgers’ books for the years 2034 – 2043.

As a minor issue, Ohtani’s contract also is reported to include:

• A full-time interpreter
• A hotel suite for all road trips
• A “premium luxury suite” at Dodger Stadium for all home games.

Meanwhile, up the road in San Francisco, the Giants came to an agreement with another Asian player signing Korean outfielder, Jung Hoo Lee to a deal worth $113M over the next 6 years.  Seems to me that the SF Chronicle missed an opportunity for the headline:

Hoo Lee Sh*t !

Moving on …  I pointed out last week the sad and significant decline in stature for Sports Illustrated when it was discovered that they had printed articles prepared by an Artificial Intelligence algorithm and that some of those sorts of stories ran under fictitious bylines.  Sports Illustrated is published by an entity known as The Arena Group which also publishes Parade and TheStreet.  Here is how The Arena Group describes itself:

“Our unified technology platform empowers creators and publishers with tools to publish and monetize their content, while also leveraging quality journalism of anchor brands like Sports Illustrated, TheStreet, Parade, Men’s Journal and HubPages to build their businesses.”

Earlier this week, The Arena Group fired its CEO and replaced him with Manoj Bhargava who is a successful businessman as the founder of 5-Hour Energy among other healthy drink brands.  Bhargava also has been involved in the chemical industry and in plastics.  Nowhere in his CV is there anything related to “quality journalism” that could lead “creators and publishers” to “monetize their content”.  Here is a hypothesis:

• Sports Illustrated was created by the folks who published Time magazine.  One need not agree with the politics of the folks who owned and ran Time, but it was serious journalism and reporting; that was the rearing/upbringing for Sports Illustrated.  Considering the journalistic standard set by those related publications put out by The Arena Group, perhaps SI is now living down to the standards of its neighbors just as it used to live up to the standards of Time.

Allow me to offer up here some recommended reading.  To appreciate the magnitude of Sports Illustrated’s decline, I suggest you read:

• The Franchise: A History of Sports Illustrated Magazine by Michael MacCambridge

Naturally, you can find it on Amazon.com…

One last item today …  Recall the name Matt Araiza.  He was the punter drafted by the Buffalo Bills whose NFL career was cut short when he was accused as being part of a gang rape of a woman while he was in college.  The Bills cut him immediately; no other professional football team went anywhere near him.  He was vilified for what he was alleged to have done.  The operative word there is “alleged”.

Police investigations did not lead to an indictment let alone a conviction.  Remember the adage that if a prosecutor really wants to, (s)he can indict a ham sandwich.  Well, Araiza was less enticing in terms of an indictment than a ham sandwich.

There was a civil action brought against Araiza by the alleged victim.  Earlier this week, that civil lawsuit was dropped; according to reports, there was no settlement; the action was simply dropped.  So, where are the apologies from all the folks who commented on Matt Araiza’s despicable behavior?  Araiza now joins the Duke Lacrosse Team and Trevor Bauer as someone pictured as a social pariah for whom there were no convictions.

Finally, apropos of nothing, let me close with these words from Lily Tomlin:

“The trouble with the rat race is that even if you win, you’re still a rat.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In my real career, I had the good fortune to work for 5 excellent and inspiring people and by observing how they dealt with people and situations it gave me behavior models that I could emulate when I faced professional challenges.  I thought then – – and continue to think – – that those opportunities to observe others were valuable happenings.  Such must not be the case when it comes to the ownership group that runs the Pittsburgh Steelers football organization.

The Rooney family runs the show there and the model for the franchise is stability and measured responses to situations.  Consider:

• The Steelers have had 3 head coaches since 1969.
• The Steelers have won 6 Super Bowls and have been AFC Champs 8 times.
• The Steelers’ last losing season was in 2003.

The way the Steelers’ organization has dealt with challenges and competitors over the years has clearly worked; so, you might expect that those on the inside who had the chance to observe how a successful franchise goes about its business would emulate the model if given the opportunity.  But we have two counter examples to that supposition:

1. Jimmy Haslam was a minority owner of the Steelers from 2008 to 2012.  At the end of his time with the Steelers organization, he bought the Cleveland Browns.  Between 2012 and today, the Browns have had 8 head coaches – – counting interim head coaches – – and have made the playoffs only one time.  There was a two-year stretch where the Browns record was 1-31-0.  There were reports that Haslam demanded that the Browns use a late first-round draft pick to take Johnny Manziel over the “advice and counsel” of the “football people”.  That behavior does not emulate the “Rooney Regimen”.
2. David Tepper was a minority owner of the Steelers from 2009 to 2018.  At the end of his time with the Steelers organization, he bought the Carolina Panthers.  Between 2018 and today, the Panthers have already had 7 head coaches – – counting interim head coaches – – and the team has not had a single winning season let alone a playoff appearance in that time.  Various reports by Peter King and reporters at The Athletic have described the Panthers environment as similar to the “Hunger Games” and King said explicitly, “That franchise is a mess.”  Once again, that behavior does not emulate the “Rooney Regimen”.

Since I obviously know none of the folks that I just described above, it would be unfair and presumptuous for me to pretend that I know why such a situation obtains.  But the difference in management/organizational styles – – and results too – – is stark enough to make me wish that someone who studies management and organizational psychology would dig in and offer some explanation.

Switching gears …  The “reader in Houston” sent me a message suggesting that I check out the Grinnell College men’s basketball team and its schedule.  The campus is located in Grinnell, IA and plays Division III level basketball in the Midwest Conference.  As of this morning, Grinnell’s record is 8-2 but it is the scoring of the Grinnell games that is most interesting:

• In both of Grinnell’s losses this year, they have scored 102 points or more.
• In three of Grinnell’s wins this year, they have scored between 148 and 151 points.
• In their ten games this season, Grinnell averages 114.7 points per game.

This is the Division III version of the old Loyola Marymount team with Hank Gathers and Bo Kimble leading the scoring with Paul Westhead as their coach…

And speaking of minor college basketball, let me clue you in on another game where the margin of victory was 94 points.  North Dakota St. won this game by a score of 108-14 over Oak Hills Christian.  North Dakota State is a Division I school, and Oak Hills Christian is a small Division II school in Minnesota.  The score was 60-5 at halftime.

Clearly this game suffered from the lack of a “Mercy Rule” but before piling on the North Dakota St. coaches for running it up, consider this:

• Everyone on the North Dakota St. roster played in the game – – AND – –
• Every player who got in the game scored for North Dakota St.

Clearly, Oak Hills Christian is a team with problems.  Their record so far this year is 2-9 and if this 94-point loss were the only rout on the record, you could chalk it up to the fact that they were over-reaching with that schedule entry.  Not the case:

• Oak Hills Christian lost to Rockford University by 53 points.
• Oak Hills Christian lost to Bemidji St. by 81 points.
• Oak Hills Christian lost to Valley City State by 63 points and again by 82 points.
• Oak Hills Christian lost to Dickinson St. by 72 points.

So, you might conclude that Oak Hills Christian is “the bottom of the barrel” but if you look closely, you will find that both of it wins have come at the expense of the same school – – Sisseton Wahpeton College.

• Dec 2^nd:  Oak Hills Christian 75  Sisseton Wahpeton College 74
• Dec 6^th:  Oak Hills Christian 90  Sisseton Wahpeton College 88

Finally, I’ll close here with some words of encouragement for the players at Oak Hills Christian and Sisseton Wahpeton College from former UCLA coach, John wooden:

“What you are as a person is far more important than what you are as a basketball player.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Baseball provided sports fans with big news over the past several days.  The biggest – – and most surprising – – news was the contract that Shohei Ohtani signed with the LA Dodgers.  All the details of that contract have not been revealed yet but what we do know is stunning:

• The total value of the contract is $700M over 10 years.
• Remember, all MLB contracts are fully guaranteed save for outrageous circumstances such as suspensions or moral turpitude or … you get the idea.
• According to reports, there are no “outs” in the contract for either party.  Ohtani will not be able to get another shot at free agency for a decade and the Dodgers have him signed up for that same period even if his arm falls off.
• According to reports, a “significant portion” of the contract consists of deferred payments.  That means Ohtani will not receive $70M every year for the next 10 years.  The amounts and the timing of the deferrals have not been reported yet, but this is an advantage for the Dodgers as a team because it reduces the “luxury tax” burden.  [Aside:  Reports also say that the Dodgers’ contracts with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman also have “significant amounts” of deferred money.]

Ohtani will not be able to pitch next season due to elbow surgery that he had recently so on one hand, the Dodgers will not have his unique “two-way skills” on the team for the first 10 percent of the deal.  Nonetheless, Ohtani should provide significant value with his bat.  Even with a truncated season as a pitcher last year, Ohtani won the MVP award (for the second time) with these stats:

• Batting average = .304
• OPS = 1.066 (best in the AL)
• HR = 44 (best in the AL)
• RBI = 95

The Dodgers along with Ohtani and Dodgers’ fans all feel like winners about now.  I do think there is a loser in all this, and I don’t mean one of the other teams who were hoping to sign Shohei Ohtani.  I think Mike Trout is a loser here.  Other than Trout, quick – – name an All-Star on the Angels’ roster.  I have no idea if the Angels are loaded with hot prospects in their minor league system; I do not follow West Coast minor league baseball at all.  However, if the Angels are not on the verge of fielding a bunch of guys ready to explode onto the scene, Mike Trout will play on a team with little to no hope of making the playoffs any time soon.  The Angels finished 2023 with a record of 73-89 which put them 17 games behind the Astros in the AL West.  The only reason they did not finish dead last is because the Oakland A’s are in the same division and are even more bereft of talent.

Mike Trout is a great player who will be in the Hall of Fame one of these days.  However, his contract with the Angels runs through 2030, so he may play out those days with a sad sack roster around him.

Another possible group of “losers” based on this contract agreement might be any MLB owners seeking to sell their teams about now.  Remember, the Angels were on the market until owner Arte Moreno could not get any bids in the neighborhood of what he wanted for the team.  The same situation existed in Washington when the Lerner family could not scare up any bids close enough to their asking price for the franchise.  Now, potential franchise buyers will need to project future salary figures that were probably outside the range of consideration 6 months ago.

And if you think that is a “Chicken Little interpretation”, consider the other major MLB story from late last week.  The Padres traded away Juan Soto to the Yankees for a bunch of young pitching prospects and some serious baseball writers have attributed the Padres’ motivation for making that trade to “liquidity issues” with Padres’ ownership.  One report said that the team had to take out a short-term loan last year to meet payroll; the Soto trade is widely referred to as “salary slashing” by the Padres.  Soto is entering his “arbitration years” and will surely earn $20-25M next year in arbitration before he too enters the free agency marketplace at the end of the 2024 season.  [Aside: I saw one report saying that Soto could get as much as $32M in arbitration this season and then negotiate from that number as an unrestricted free agent next winter.]

Now the baseball signing focus can settle on 25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto who has excelled in the Japanese Pacific League for the last several years and is the winner of that league’s MVP Award in each of the last 3 seasons.  Yamamoto is a starting pitcher who went 16-6 last year with an ERA of 1.16.  Over a career of 7 seasons in Japan, Yamamoto has logged 967.2 innings and a career ERA of 1.72.  Who wants to start the bidding at 10 years and $350M?

Finally, since today has been about lots of money, let me close with three observations about money:

“When it comes to the question of money, everyone is of the same religion.”  [Voltaire]

And …

“Those who have some means think that the most important thing in the world is love.  The poor know that it is money.”  [Gerald Brenan]

And …

“Money cannot buy health, but I’d settle for a diamond-studded wheelchair.”  [Dorothy Parker]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Serious college football goes on hiatus at this time of year – – save for the Army/Navy game this weekend – – but that does not mean that “football” takes a break.  And for that reason, Football Friday will not take a break.  So, I shall begin where all these rants begin – – a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• College  =  1-1-0   =>   Season  = 19-9-0
• NFL  =  1-2-0   =>   Season  =  17-14-0
• Parlay  =  0-1  Loss  =  $100  =>  Season = 7-11  Loss = $47

 

College Football Commentary:

 

I am not going to comment on every single college football bowl game because some of them are of less interest than a treatise on athlete’s foot fungus prevalence in woodpeckers.  But I do think that sixteen of the minor bowl games deserve comment:

1. Famous Toastery Bowl featuring W. Kentucky versus Old Dominion.  Unless you have a relative playing in this game or if you have a confidence pool where you had to pick a winner here, there is NO good reason for anyone else to give a rat’s ass about this matchup.
2. Fenway Bowl featuring BC against SMU.  Without BC in this game, they would be lucky to have a live audience of more than 10,000.  If the weather is beastly, they may only draw 7500 to the stands for this one…
3. Potato Bowl featuring Ga St. versus Utah St.  With a high degree of confidence, I predict that “State” will win this game.
4. Pop Tarts Bowl will match NC State against K-State.  With a high degree of confidence, I predict that “State” will win this game.  There’s an echo in here …
5. Las Vegas Bowl featuring Utah and Northwestern.  Only pay attention to this game if you love defensive football.  The Total Line opened at 43 points and has been eroding to the current number at 41.5 points.  The game will not kick off until Dec 23^rd, so there is ample opportunity for that line to go lower.
6. 68 Ventures Bowl matches two directional schools – – South Alabama and E. Michigan.  The first of the “68 Ventures” here would be for give a rat’s ass about this game.
7. Texas Bowl features Texas A&M and Oklahoma St.:  Both fanbases expect the moon and the stars from their stalwarts.  One will be ecstatic after this game and the other will be despondent beyond rational measure.
8. Pinstripe Bowl played in Yankee Stadium pits Rutgers against Miami (FL). Other than demonstrating that Rutgers does not move the needle regarding TV ratings in the NYC area and that Rutgers’ alums will not pack Yankee Stadium to the gills, what is the point of this game?
9. Fiesta Bowl pairs Oregon and undefeated Liberty.  Big game for both teams – – even if it is of no import regarding national rankings.
10. Gator Bowl has two teams whose seasons are mirror images.  Kentucky started the season at 5-0 and finished 7-5.  Clemson lost plenty of early games and finished the season with 4 straight wins including over UNC and Notre Dame.
11. LA Bowl has an interesting story in one of the teams, Boise St.  They fired the head coach in mid-season and still won the MWC championship and this bowl game invitation.  That is an atypical season to say the least …
12. Cure Bowl matches Appalachian St. and Miami (OH).  It is not clear to me what malady might be cured with that pairing…
13. Hawaii Bowl has Coastal Carolina versus San Jose St.  There will be a ton of frequent flier miles accumulated by the Chanticleers on this trip.
14. Citrus Bowl this year should be labeled as the Yin/Yang Bowl.  Tennessee wins by outscoring opponents; they average over 31 points per game.  Iowa never comes close to scoring 31 points in a game and yet Iowa has a 10-3 record.
15. Sun Bowl might be the best of the minor bowl games this year with Notre Dame playing Oregon St.  These are two very good football teams.
16. Armed Forces Bowl is where James Madison University landed once it was eligible for a bowl bid when there were not enough 6-win teams in the country to fill all the slots. This game will happen on Dec 23^rd in the late afternoon time slot and should be a fun game to watch.

Here is a review of some action from last weekend:

Texas 49  Oklahoma St. 21:  This was no contest.  Check out just a few stats from the game:

• Texas Total Offense = 662 yards   OK St. Total Offense = 281 yards
• OK St. Rushing Offense = 31 yards on 16 attempts (1.9 yards per carry)
• Texas third-down conversions = 10 of 16

Boise St. 44  UNLV 20: Another game of domination…  Boise St, gained 527 yards and UNLV only gained 298.  Boise St rushing offense was 301 yards – – just a tad more than UNLV’s total offense.  Both teams have gotten bowl bids; this will be the first bowl game appearance for UNLV in a decade.\

SMU 26  Tulane 14:  SMU smothered Tulane’s ground game yielding only 31 net yards rushing in the game and Tulane was only able to convert 2 of 15 third-down situations.  SMU survived a game where it turned the ball over 3 times.  Tulane led 7-0 after a turnover with 14:50 left in the first quarter.  From that point until halfway through the third quarter, Tulane was shut out.

Alabama 27  Georgia 24:  Georgia’s 29-game winning streak is no more.  The game was as even on the stat sheet as it was on the scoreboard.  Two weeks ago, Alabama could not stop Auburn’s run game; in this game, Alabama only gave up 78 yards rushing.

Florida St. 16  Louisville 6:  Check these stats:

• Florida St. Total Offense = 219 yards   Louisville Total Offense = 188 yards
• Florida St. First Downs = 12   Louisville First Downs = 10
• Two teams combined on third-down situations to go 5 of 33

Was this a “Defensive Battle for the Ages” or “Two Incompetent Offenses”?  The answer – to me – is a qualified “Yes” to both questions.  The Seminoles’ defense was smothering; the Seminoles’ offense was marginal at best.

Michigan 26  Iowa 0:  Iowa managed to gain a total of 149 yards in the game on 56 offensive plays (2.7 yards per offensive snap).  That meager output generated all of 7 first downs in the game.

Liberty 49  New Mexico St. 35:  Liberty finishes the season undefeated at 13-0.  This was a game where both defenses never got off the team bus:

• Liberty Total Offense = 711 yards
• NM St. Total Offense = 499 yards
• Combined Total Offense = 1210 yards
• Teams combined to achieve 60 first downs.
• NM St. averaged 7.9 yards per offensive play – – and LOST the game.
• Liberty averaged 10.2 yards per offensive play.

Liberty QB, Kaidon Salter produced these stats in the game:

• 20 of 25 for 319 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs – – Plus – –
• 12 rushes for 165 yards and 1 TD.

Washington 34  Oregon 31:  The Huskies won the stat sheet more convincingly than they won the game on the scoreboard.  They outgained the Ducks by 119 yards which usually produces a win by more than a field goal.  Washington RB, Dillon Johnson produced these stats:

• 28 carries for 152 yards (5.4 yards per carry) and 2 TDs – – Plus – –
• 2 of 2 passing for 5 yards and 1 TD with 0 INTs.

 

Games this Week:

 

Army – 3 vs. Navy (29.5):  The spread opened with Army as a 1-point favorite, but that line has been climbing steadily all week; one Internet sportsbook has it at 3.5 points.  The total Lime opened at 31 points and has been dropping all week.  A different Internet sportsbook has the Total Line as low as 27.5 points this morning.  Games between the service academies are always worth watching.  The players give max effort on every play; there is no showboating even after great individual plays; the celebrations are organic and not of the “Hey, Look At Me” variety.  I am tempted to take this game to stay UNDER even that extremely low Total Line; remember that the Navy defense has shut out three opponents this year.  But I will resist that temptation.

I believe it was last year – – it may have been a couple of years ago – – one of the Navy fans in attendance had a sign that was put on the air in a crowd shot.

• Why doesn’t Army Football have its own website?

 

• They can’t string three “W” s together!

 

NFL Commentary:

 

One of the important positions that has come to the fore recently in the NFL is the “Backup QB”.  Fifty-three different players have been the starting QB for NFL teams so far in 2023 and Trevor Lawrence is questionable for this weekend.  When GMs are in “roster building mode” they need to spend some time – – and maybe a bit of their salary cap money too – – acquiring a competent backup QB.  Even with the enhanced restrictions on defensive players teeing off on opposing QBs, it is about an even bet that a team will need its backup QB at some point in the season.

• [Aside: The Giants, the Jets and the Vikes have all started 3 different QBs this season and the Browns have started 4 different QBs.]

Speaking of the Jets and their three different starting QBs, the team released Tim Boyle this week.  To complete that move, the Jets signed Brett Rypien.  Maybe Rypien is an upgrade over Tim Boyle – – that is not a given – – but here are some data to indicate that he might not be a permanent solution to the Jets’ QB situation:

• In January 2023, Rypien was part of the Denver Broncos.
• In May 2023, he signed with the Rams and presumably moved to the LA area.
• In November 2023, he signed with the Seahawks and presumably moved to the Seattle area.
• In December 2023, he signed with the Jets and presumably moved to the NYC area.

Those data tell me two things:

1. He shows few if any flashes of brilliance in training/practice sessions.
2. He is more likely to be named ‘Man of the Year” by United Van Lines than he is by any NFL fanbase.

Lots of coverage and commentary this year has centered on CJ Stroud and his leadership/performance as the rookie QB for the Texans.  To some extent, Stoud’s excellent rookie season has detracted from the attention that should be paid to the performance of his rookie teammate – – and also high draft pick – – LB Will Anderson.  He is also an “impact player”, one that offensive coaches need to plan around as they put together their play-calling sheets.

I have begun to create a hypothesis about “evolutionary trends” that have shaped the current state of NFL football.  In today’s game, the running game has been de-emphasized and running backs as a position group have been “devalued”.  For a while now, I have simply ascribed that to the fact that rule changes have all been in the direction of making the passing game in the NFL easier on and more rewarding to offensive units.  Ergo, pass the ball more than run it …

But I wonder if there is another factor at work here.  College football shows a similar – and maybe even a greater – disdain for the running game.  In many college games, you will see offenses lining up with 4 WRs and an empty backfield at least five times as frequently as you will see them with two RBs in the offensive set.  Most college teams do not run the ball nearly as often as they used to.

And that leads to the “graduation” of college offensive linemen for whom any sort of run blocking more complicated than the simple “down-block” represents the need for a learning curve.  In 2023:

• 24 teams (75% of the NFL) have thrown the ball on first down 75% of the time.

I am beginning to think that teams are eschewing run plays as much because they do not have enough competent run-blocking offensive linemen as they are avoiding them for higher productivity passing plays.  It is only a hypothesis; I will hope to refine it over time …

Just to keep you up to date, Commanders’ QB, Sam Howell was sacked 4 times last week bringing his season total to 58 sacks in 13 games.  That projects to 75.8 sacks for a 17-game season.  The NFL record for sacks in a season is 76.  Tension mounts …

Let me review last week’s NFL action:

Bengals 34  Jags 31 (OT):  Jake Browning is the story of this game having shown not much more than mediocrity the week before.  Here is his stat line:

• 32 of 37 for 354 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs – – PLUS – –
• 2 rushing attempts for 22 yards and 1 TD.

The longer-term issue from this game is Jags’ QB, Trevor Lawrence, suffering a “high ankle sprain”.  How long might that affect the level of his play – – assuming he can play at all for the next couple of games?  That is an important question for a team with only a one-game lead in the AFC South and a backup QB – – CJ Beathard – – who is also listed as “questionable”.

Cards 24  Steelers 10:  This game was much closer on the stat sheet than it was on the scoreboard.  The Steelers lost Kenny Pickett to an ankle injury meaning that three of the four teams in the AFC North have had injuries to their starting QBs this season.  James Connor was the workhorse for the Cards carrying the ball 25 times for 105 yards and 2 TDs.

Falcons 13  Jets 8:  No, the Jets did not score a TD plus a 2-point conversion; their 8 points came on two field goals and a safety.  The Jets went to QB #3 on the roster, Trevor Siemian, and the results were not significantly different from what they got from either Zack Wilson or Tim Boyle.  The Jets’ defense should sue the offense for non-support.  In this game, the Falcons only got 194 yards of Total Offense and the Falcons won the game.  Last week, I said that Desmond Ridder would be “the best QB on the field”.  Well, I was correct despite this stat line for Ridder:

• 12 of 27 for 121 yards with 1 TD.

Texans 22  Broncos 17:  The Texans played well, but in reality, the Broncos lost the game more than the Texans won it.  Consider:

• Broncos’ Turnovers = 3  Texans’ Turnovers = 0
• Broncos third-down conversions = 0 for 11
• Broncos = 5.7 yards per pass attempt  Texans = 8.1 yards per pass attempt

The Broncos’ 5-game winning streak was snapped with this loss, but the AFC West got more interesting because the Chiefs also lost.  That means the Broncos did not lose any ground with their loss and since the Chargers won last week, they gained on everyone else in the division.  (The Raiders were on a BYE Week.)  The Texans remain in excellent position for a playoff slot; this morning they are tied with the Colts – – only one game behind the Jags in the AFC South.  The Broncos have come around to being a good football team; this win for the Texans is a significant one.

Niners 42  Eagles 19:  The Eagles had also won 5 in a row coming into this game as had the Broncos – – and both streaks came to an end last week.  This was not a fluke; the Niners were the better team on the field from start to finish outgaining the Eagles by 123 yards on the day.  It may be time for the Eagles’ fans to start worrying about the Eagles’ defense.  This is the fourth game this year that the Eagles have given up more than 30 points.

Lions 33 Saints 28:  This game was dead-even on the stat sheet save for 2 turnovers by the Saints and no turnovers by the Lions.  The Lions maintain a 3-game lead in the NGFC North while the Saints fall a game behind the Falcons – – and a tiebreaker behind the Bucs – – in the NFC South.  For the record, the last time the Lions were 9-3, was in 1962; to put some perspective on that, here are some of the personnel from the 1962 Detroit Lions:

• Defensive Tackle – – Alex Karras
• Defensive Tackle – – Roger Brown
• Linebacker – – Joe Schnidt
• DB – – Night Train Lane
• DB – – Dick LeBeau
• Defensive Coordinator – – Don Shula

Colts 31  Titans 28 (OT):  Gardner Minshew had a big day here with this stat line:

• 26 of 42 for 312 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs

The Colts have now won 4 games in a row tied with the Niners and Cowboys for the longest current win streak in the NFL.  Derrick Henry ran for two TDs for the Titans before having to leave the game as part of the concussion protocol.

Chargers 6  Pats 0:  The Pats are the first team in the NFL since 1938 to hold opponents to 10 points or fewer in three consecutive games and to lose all three games.  The Pats actually outgained the Chargers in the game 257 yards to 241 yards.  Both “scoring drives” by the Chargers that resulted in field goals began in the Pats half of the field.  Other than those events, this game was an offensive snoozer.  The teams were a combined 9 for 29 on third-down conversions and the teams combined to punt 15 times.

Dolphins 45  Commanders 15:  Well, the firing of the Commanders’ defensive coordinator and their defensive backs coach seems to have fixed – – not a whole lot.  Not only did the Commanders give up 45 points, but they also gave up some prodigious passing stats:

• Tua Tagovailoa was 18 of 24 for 280 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs
• Tyreek Hill caught 5 passes for 157 yards and 2 TDs
• Dolphins averaged 11.1 yards per pass attempt.

This is the third game in a row that Commanders’ QB, Sam Howell, threw a Pick-Six.  That was Howell’s 14^th INT for the season which leads the league.  That puts a damper on the stat that shows the Commanders at second in the NFL in passing yardage for the season.

Bucs 21  Panthers 18:  The Panthers led the game 10-7 with 5 minutes to go in the third quarter but then gave up 2 TDs in the next 8 minutes to give the Bucs a 21-10 lead that would hold up.  Bucs’ WR, Mike Evans, caught 7 passes for 162 yards and 1 TD in the game.

Rams 36  Browns 19:  Matthew Stafford threw 3 TD passes in the game and the Rams amassed 399 yards of offense against a very good defensive unit.  The Rams are now 6-6; are they seriously in the playoff mix?  Joe Flacco played well for the Browns as a stopgap QB with this stat line:

• 23 of 44 for 254 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT

The Browns now have two losses in a row.   Myles Garret played in this game – – sort of.  He had no sacks, no hits on the QAB and no tackles in the game.  But he was there and made the Rams “account for him”.

Packers 27  Chiefs 19:  The only thing wrong with this game was the officiating in the final minutes of the game where there were several calls made or not made that were simply incorrect.  Jordan Love played an excellent game throwing for 267 yards and 3 TDs with no INTs.  The Packers are now 6-6 and have won 3 games in a row; Jordan Love has shown growth in all those games.  Keep a close eye on the Packers in the playoff race from here forward because none of their remaining 5 opponents would be in the playoffs if the playoffs began this weekend.  The Packers might be 11-6 come playoff time …

 

NFL Games This Week:

 

This week marks the end of BYE Weeks for NFL teams.  There are two teams that have yet to get a week off until now:

1. Cardinals:  With their current 3-10 record, very few NFL fans will miss their presence this weekend
2. Commanders:  With their current 4-9 record, very few NFL fans will miss their presence this weekend.

Is there an echo in here …?

In last night’s game, the Pats beat the Steelers 21-18 in Pittsburgh.  The Steelers were 5.5-point favorites and the Total Line which opened at 35 points. had been bet down to 30.5 points at the kickoff.  Here are some of the reactions I recorded as I watched the game:

• Both teams scored on their first possessions?  Are the football gods going to prank us tonight?
• Score is 21-10 at the half – – so the game is already OVER with 30 minutes to play.
• Did the Pats’ offensive staff take some Quaaludes at halftime? Where is the “attack element”?
• Do the Steelers’ offensive gurus even know that Diontae Johnson and George Pickens are on the field?

Steelers’ fans have taken two gut-punches in the last 5 days:

1. Last weekend, the Steelers hosted the “2-win Cardinals” and lost straight up.
2. Last night, the Steelers hosted the “2-win Pats” and lost straight up.

Ten days ago, the Steelers were 7-4 with two home games against two dog-assed opponents – – and the Steelers lost at home to both of them.  This is more than just a big deal for the Steelers’ season.  Oh, by the way, the Pats snapped a 5-game losing streak with this win.

Jags at Browns – 3 (32):   With the Steelers/Pats game out of the way, this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week even though both teams have winning records and are in contention for their division titles.  If you “follow the money”, you have to believe that Trevor Lawrence will not be the QB for the Jags in this game.  The spread opened with the Jags as 3-point favorites and the Total Line was at 39.  The Jags’ offense is probably going to be stuck in second gear here – – but should anyone expect an offensive explosion from the Browns and Joe Flacco?

Rams at Ravens – 7 (38.5):  The Rams have won 3 games in a row to put themselves in the picture for an NFC wildcard slot, but this could be a tall order for them.  Both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nakua are dealing with injuries and the Rams’ defense will have to deal with Lamar Jackson who is a major problem for teams that have not faced him in the recent past because it is difficult to simulate him with one’s scout team.  The Ravens had BYE last week; the Rams will play an early start game coming from 3 times zones away.  I like the Ravens at home; I’ll lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Lions – 3 at Bears (43):  The Lions opened as 5-point favorites last Sunday night, but the spread has slowly dropped to this level.  The Lions are comfortably in first place in the NFC North; the Bears are comfortably in last place in the NFC North.

Panthers at Saints – 5 (38):  The Saints have a choice to make this week.  Derek Carr was in concussion protocol last week and has had “shoulder issues” for the past couple of weeks.  Jameis Winston is healthy – – but he is Jameis Winston meaning that there is no way the Saints’ coaching staff can anticipate what kind of game he will put out there.

Bucs at Falcons – 1 (41):  This is an important game.  The Falcons lead the NFC South at 6-6; the Bucs – – and the Saints – – are one game behind at 5-7.  A road win for the Bucs here plus a Saints win over the hapless Panthers would create a three-way tie for the division lead and would confer a degree of “importance” to subsequent NFC South games.  At least that gives me something to root for…

Colts at Bengals – 2 (44):  Here is another game where the favorite has changed during the week; the spread opened with the Colts as 2-point favorites.  Should you ride with Jake Browning to have another day passing for 350+ yards?  Are you ready for another roll of the dice in “Gardner Minshew Land”?  If the Jags stumble this week, the Colts can be tied for the lead in the AFC South with a win.  No thanks …

Texans – 3.5 at Jets (32):  I think this is a significant coaching challenge for DeMeco Ryans.  He has a very young team that is right in the thick of the playoff race going on the road to play a Jets’ team that seemingly cannot do anything right.  Ryans needs to be sure his guys don’t mail this game in because the Jets defense is for real.

Seahawks at Niners – 10.5 (47):  The spread opened with the Niners as 12.5-point favorites, but it dropped to this level very quickly and then held as the week went on.  The Seahawks have lost 3 games in a row and have not looked particularly good in any of them.  The Niners are on a roll.

Vikes – 3 at Raiders (40):  Both teams had BYE Weeks last week so no advantage there.  The Vikes must choose which of their QBs to start here.  Joshua Dobbs had a bad game two weeks ago; the other two guys are Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall.  The Vikes are alive for the NFC playoffs and a loss here would hurt those chances a lot; the Raiders would probably need to win out to be in the discussion for a low seed in the AFC.

Broncos at Chargers – 3 (44):  The Chargers’ season is on the line here; that’s all there is to it.

Bills at Chiefs – 1.5 (48):  This spread is all over the map.  It opened with the Chiefs as 3-point favorites.  This morning, you can find it at one sportsbook as a “pick ‘em” game and at another sportsbook with the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites – – and just about everywhere in between.  This was my runner-up for Game of the Week.  This is a huge game for both teams:

• The Bills are 6-6.  It could easily take 10 wins to make the AFC playoffs so a loss for the Bills could put them in a situation where they need to win out.
• The Chiefs are 8-4.  If they acquire a 5^th loss here, they are probably not going to get the first round BYE and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Bills were on their BYE Week last week which could be a slight advantage for them; the game is in KC which is a significant advantage for the Chiefs.    I see this as an offense-dominant game; I like it to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun Nite) Eagles at Cowboys – 3.5 (52):  The Cowboys have played 6 home games in 2023 with these results:

• Cowboys are 6-0
• Cowboys point differential in those 6 games = +151

This is the Game of the Week.  A Cowboys’ win would create a tie atop the NFC East and a tie for the best record in the NFC – – with the Niners and Lions lurking just a game behind.  An Eagles’ win would put them 2 games clear of the Cowboys with only 4 games left to play.

(Mon Nite) Titans at Dolphins – 13.5 (46):  The Dolphins were 12-point favorites at the opening, but the line jumped to this level rather quickly.  If you like trends, here is one for you:

• Dolphins are 5-0 at home in 2023.
• Titans are 0-6 on the road in 2023.
• Dolphins are at home here; Titans are on the road…

(Mon Nite) Packers – 6.5 at Giants (36):  The Packers were only 4.5-point favorites earlier this week, but this line just climbed steadily as time went on.  The Packers have won three in a row and Jordan Love seems to improve from game to game.  I was impressed by the Packers and by Love last week in the win over the Chiefs.  I think the Packers are on a roll and will make the NFC playoffs come January.  Nothing remotely similar to those statements apply to the Giants.  Even on the road, I’ll take the Packers to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

So, let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Ravens – 7 over Rams
• Bills/Chiefs OVER 48
• Packers – 6.5 over Giants.

            And here is a Money Line Parlay too:

• Packers @ minus-280
• Ravens @ minus-320
• Dolphins @ minus-700         $100 wager to win $104.

            I’ll close this week with these words of wisdom from former Notre Dame coach, Lou Holtz:

“The man who complains about the way the ball bounces is likely to be the one who dropped it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In a recent rant, I noted the serious decline in importance and relevance of Sports Illustrated over the last 25-30 years.  For about 30 years, it was the pinnacle of sports journalism/reporting, but now it has devolved into a monthly publication that has been shown to release things written in the main by an Artificial Intelligence proxy under a fictitious byline.  That is quite a fall from grace.

During the year, SI’s  readers could anticipate several annual “events”:

• In February there was the “Swimsuit Issue”
• In March there was the MLB Preview Issue
• In August there was the college and NFL Preview Issue – – and – –

In December, Sports Illustrated would identify “The Sportsman of the Year.”  Naturally, the award these days is labeled as the Sportsperson of the Year but ever since Roger Bannister was the first recipient in 1954 for breaking the four-minute mile barrier, the award has gone to people with notable achievements in that year.  Here are just a few of the recipients that you will surely recall:

• Arnold Palmer
• Sandy Koufax
• Muhammed Ali
• Chris Evert
• Wayne Gretzky
• You get the idea …

The “definition” of the award winner – – offered up by the folks at Sports Illustrated who created and maintained the award – – is as follows:

“… the athlete or team whose performance that year most embodies the spirit of sportsmanship and achievement.”

And that brings us to 2023 when the Sportsperson of the Year is identified as – – drum roll please – – Deion Sanders.

I have no animus for Deion Sanders; I think his Colorado football team represented a significant improvement over recent editions of Colorado football teams.  This year, the Buffaloes quadrupled the number of wins as compared to last year’s Buffaloes.  Deion Sanders brought attention to Colorado football that had not been there for at least 25 years, and he brought a lot of attention to college football in general.  What he did this year is undoubtedly praiseworthy.

Now let me channel my inner Stephen A. Smith … How-evah, the award is supposed to embody the spirit of “sportsmanship and achievement.”  And try as I may, I cannot dress up Deion Sanders’ accomplishments in 2023 in either the cloak of sportsmanship or the robes of achievement.  Frankly, I would prefer to see any of the following receive this award based on “sportsmanship and achievement”:

• Novak Djokovic
• Patrick Mahomes
• Lionel Messi
• Shohei Ohtani

Moving on …  Yesterday, I supported the choices made by the CFP Selection Committee for the four tournament participants.  My support for their decisions has not changed but I would lose a ton of “Curmudgeon Credibility” if I did not point out a possibility that could cause a humongous case of heartburn in the sports world.  Remember, I said “possibility”:

1. Alabama beats previously undefeated Michigan in the Rose Bowl.
2. Texas beats previously undefeated Washington in the Sugar Bowl.
3. Florida St. beats Georgia in the Orange Bowl.

In that case, the only undefeated Power 5 team would be ACC Champion Florida St. but the CFP-determined champion would be the winner of the Alabama/Texas rematch involving two teams who would enter the game with a loss.  Florida St. would be “left out” with a 14-0 record.  Senator Rick Scott (R- FL) has already blown a gasket issuing statements and “demanding answers” as to how/why FSU could have been degraded by the Selection Committee.  If the scenario above were to come to pass, he might go apoplectic.

Finally, having mentioned Senator Scott, let me close here with an observation by author Saul Bellow regarding politicians:

“Take our politicians: they’re a bunch of yo-yos.  The presidency is now a cross between a popularity contest and a high school debate with an encyclopedia of cliches as the first prize.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………