Fixing Before It Breaks …

Bert Lance was a senior advisor in the Carter Administration and this axiom is attributed to him:

“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

In the main, Mr. Lance and I are in agreement.  Where I might deviate slightly is in a situation where something is not “broke”, but it is also not in the best of condition.  In such a circumstance, I am not averse to fixing something before it breaks.  And that brings me to the NBA…

It was not that long ago when the NBA was alleged to be the model sporting endeavor in the US.

• Its players were highly recognized and generally admired.
• Its growth rate in terms of TV audiences and sponsorships was half-again as much as the NFL.
• The NBA was the “hot growth stock” among the sporting entities in the US.

Such is not the case in 2024; I do not mean to imply that the NBA is on the verge of a collapse; it is not.  At the same time, the league and the “insiders” who would never say something negative or dire about the league need to take a deep breath and begin to think about a couple of things.

1. The “franchise faces” for the NBA are aging out of relevancy quickly.  The world no longer waits breathlessly for any pearls of wisdom to be dispensed by LeBron James; Steph Curry is still the plucky little crowd-pleaser but his game is not nearly what it was pre-COVID; Kevin Durant has about worn out his welcome; James Harden and Russell Westbrook evoke as many negative feelings as positive ones.
2. The NBA’s television presence is starting to look like a house of cards.  Traditionally, the NBA dominated Christmas Day with a quadruple or quintuple header of good games.  No longer…  In 2022, Christmas fell on a Sunday and the NBA played games then and dominated the TV ratings.  Bad news for the NBA here; in 2023, the NFL decided to expand its Monday coverage because Christmas was on Monday.  Basically, the median NFL audience on that day was about the size of the total audience for all five NBA games.

Who are the replacements for the NBA’s aging “franchise faces”?

• Wemby?  Maybe someday, but I doubt many folks would recognize a “mug shot” of him where his 7’ 4” stature is not revealed.
• Anthony Edwards?  He is indeed an exciting player, but I wonder how many fans realize that this is his 4^th year in the NBA.
• Luka Doncic?  No …
• Nikola Jokic?  Perhaps the best player in the world today, but not nearly the face of the league.
• Jayson Tatum?  Meh …
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?  An emerging star with an engaging personality on camera, he might just be the NBA’s “heir apparent”.

The fact of the matter is that in the world of basketball today – – in April 2024 – -, the player who moves the needle in terms of fan interest is in the WNBA not the NBA.  The force majeure in basketball is Caitlin Clark and people can mythologize about her all they want, but she cannot play in the NBA.  At the same time, there is no one in the NBA under the age of 25 who has the same “draw” as Clark does and no one coming to the league as a rookie in the Fall of 2024 is nearly as recognizable or as magnetic.

I think it is useful for the NBA to try to figure out why it is the case that Caitlin Clark is the focus factor that she is.  And here is my starting hypothesis:

• Caitlin Clark will arrive at the training camp of the Indiana Fever as an “established brand”.
• Sports fans know her, know about her; and many have seen her play.  [Aside:  The Iowa/South Carolina championship game for the women’s tournament a couple of weeks ago had a TV audience more than double what any regular season NBA game drew.  Let that sink in …]
• Reports say that Nike has given her a $28M promotional deal.  Nike does not hand out money of that proportion to just anyone; Nike is a brand and Nike recognizes the value of partnering with “another brand.”

About 5 years ago, LaVar Ball was omnipresent in every form of the media spouting off some outrageous stuff.  In the envelope of his perorations, however, there was a nugget of solid truth.  He pointed out that when his oldest son was about to be drafted into the NBA that the teams and the league did not know how to deal with Lonzo and LaVar because they were arriving in the league as an “established brand.”  They already had a shoe deal; they were selling their own shoes!

• Think now about all the players who will be eligible for the NBA Draft this year and name me the player who is already an “established brand”; I’ll hang up and listen for the answer…

I began today saying that sometimes you need to fix things to prevent them from becoming totally broken.  By now, you are wondering what the fix is here.  Well, I have a suggested starting point.

• Players need to sit out at least one year after their high school graduation before they can enter the NBA.  The CBA between the NBA and the NBPA demands that.
• Instead of drafting all those “one-and-done aspirants”, the NBA should identify a half-dozen or so players who have the game and the presence/personality to become a focal point for the NBA’s fans and the NBA should pay them “NIL money” to stay in college and to play college basketball for two more years before “graduating” to the NBA.
• The league will not bat 1.000 in this endeavor, but it will bring more players to the league who are already “established brands” than is the case now.

The current situation is not dire, but it is not positive either.  I think this NBA problem can be identified and should be addressed.   Maybe there are better ideas than mine out there; if so, they should come forth because this is not a situation that will cure itself.

It ain’t broke, but it could stand some fixing…

I’ll have some more suggestions for NBA improvements tomorrow.

Finally, let me close today with this observation by Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert:

“Normal people believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.  Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………