Category: Daily Rants

Football Friday has come upon me again; it seems that the football gods are taking great pleasures this season with humiliating me and my “Betting Bundle” selections.  I take a small measure of solace in the words of Bill Vaughan:

“In the game of life, it’s a good idea to have a few early losses, which relieves you of the pressure of trying to maintain an undefeated season.”

I need not worry about an “undefeated season”, but I can be happy to note that I have had more than a few “early losses” – – and so I press on.  Here are last week’s not so good results:

• Spreads and Totals:  2-4-0
• Season To Date:        8-18-0

And …

• Money Line Parlays: 1-2       Loss = $48
• Season To Date:        5-10     Loss = $128

The Linfield University Wildcats stretched their season record in 2025 to 3-1 last week with a 23-6 win at home over Pacific University.  That win makes Linfield 2-0 in Northwest Conference games and the conference winner gets a slot in the Division III playoffs at the end of the season.  This week, the Whitworth Pirates come to McMinnville, OR for another conference game; this is an important matchup since Whitworth is also undefeated in conference games.  Go Wildcats!

My “sleeper team” for 2025 continues to do quite well.  The Georgia Tech Yellowjackets became bowl-eligible last weekend beating Va Tech 35-20 and extending their season record to 6-0.  This week, Tech goes on the road to Duke in an important ACC game.  More on that later…

 

College Football Commentary:

 

I mentioned that Georgia Tech is undefeated in 2025.  Looking around, I count eleven teams that have yet to suffer a loss this season.  But what about the football schlubs; what about the winless teams?  I believe there are only three in Division 1-A:

1. Oregon St.
2. Sam Houston
3. UMass

The presence of UMass on any list of futility in college football is no surprise, but I wondered how long ago it was that the Minutemen were even marginally competent at the game.  My “research” turned up some disturbing information.

• UMass football began in 1952; they competed in the Yankee Conference and from 1960 through 1980, UMass was the conference champion 12 times.
• In 1998, UMass was the Division 1-AA National Champion and from 1998 until 2011, UMass made the Division 1-AA football playoffs.
• Starting in 2012, UMass “stepped up” into Division 1-A and joined the MAC.  The MAC is hardly the Big-10 or the SEC; nonetheless, as MAC members or as independents in Division 1-A, UMass went 28-130 between 2012 and the start of this football season.
• In 2025, UMass is 0-6 but it gets worse.  They scheduled a Division 1-AA game this year and lost it.  In the five games against Division 1-A team, the cumulative score has been;
  • • Opponents:     194
    • UMass:            32

Last week, UMass lost to Kent St. by a score of 42-6.  The last time Kent St. scored 42 points or more was in September 2022 and the foe on that day was Long Island University.  To be honest, I did not know that Long Island University fielded a football team.  Kent St. is hardly a paragon of a football program and by comparison, UMass is several rungs below that.  Question:

• Does playing Division 1-A football bring in enough revenue to make a decade-long embarrassment worth it?

One of the other winless teams this year, Oregon St., fired its coach.  The Beavers are 0-7 this year and their record in the final 7 games of 2024 was 1-6.  Oregon St. has a home game against Division 1-AA Lafayette this week; the Leopards are going to travel about 2900 miles from Easton, PA to Corvallis, OR for this contest.

• If Oregon St. loses this one, it will be more than embarrassing.  However, it will set up a game on November 8^th when Sam Houston (the third winless team as of today) comes to Corvallis for what would be a bottom-feeder special.

One of the awards that Curmudgeon Central hands out every year is the Brothel Defense Award.  It goes to the team that allows the most points per game for the season; the name of the award alludes to how easy it is to score in a brothel and against that team’s defense.  As of today, here are the contenders for that Award:

• Air Force:        40.0 points per game
• Georgia St.:     41.2 points per game
• UAB:               41.3 points per game

Everyone here knows that I like to have fun with players’ names; just before March Madness every year, I do an entire rant on that topic.  My favorite player’s name from college football so far this year is a sophomore running back for Mississippi St.  Ladies and gentlemen, let me present to you:

• Fluff Bothwell

Here are some comments on some of last week’s games; I’ll begin in the Big-10:

Indiana 30  Oregon 20:  Indiana beat a top-shelf team here; it’s time to recognize that Indiana has become a formidable football program. The Indiana defense won the game as much as the offense, Oregon is a very good rushing team, and Indiana held them to 81 yards on 30 carries.  And Indiana’s defense recorded 2 INTs as well.

Northwestern 22  Penn State 21:  The Lions’ defense could not get off the field; consider these stats from the game:

• First Downs:                Northwestern = 23      Penn St. = 13
• Offensive Plays:          Northwestern = 68      Penn St. = 51

In addition, Penn St. committed 6 penalties in the game and 5 of them resulted in a first down for Northwestern.  As you know, James Franklin is looking for work as a result of this debacle.

Iowa 37 Wisconsin 0:  The Total Line closed at 37.5 points.  No one betting that line expected it to be close with either team getting shut out.  Wisconsin was held to only 209 yards of offense.  The Badgers are 2-4 so far in 2025 and they still have Ohio St. Indiana and Oregon on the schedule.  These will be hard times in Madison, WI.

USC 31  Michigan 13:  Michigan is known for playing ‘bully-ball”.  Not in this game; USC ran for 224 yards and Michigan only gained 109 yards – – on 31 carries

UCLA 38  Michigan St. 13:  This makes two wins in a row for the Bruins – – and this one was on the road.  UCLA started the season 0-4 and was beaten badly then; they fired their coach and now they are 2-4 and are also 2-1 in conference play.

Moving on to the SEC:

Georgia 20  Auburn 10:   Auburn led 10-0 in the second quarter; then the Georgia defense asserted itself.  The Bulldogs iced the game in the 4^th quarter with a 16-play and 78-yard drive that took 8:45 off the clock in the fourth quarter and resulted in a TD.

Alabama 30  Mizzou 14:   The Alabama defense deserves kudos here.

• The defense had two INTs in the fourth quarter.
• Mizzou managed to convert only 1 of 10 third down tries in the game.

Ole Miss 24  Washington St.  21:  The spread here was more than 4 TDs not 3 Points.    The Rebels stayed unbeaten in 2025 but may have been looking past Washington St because the Rebels’ next two opponents will be:

• At Georgia
• At Oklahoma

Texas 23  Oklahoma 6:  The Texas defense had 3 INTs in the game and the Texas offense converted on 10 of 17 third down situations.  The Sooners led 6-3 at the half but here are the results of their second half possessions:

• PUNT
• INT
• PUNT
• DOWNS
• DOWNS

In other games …

Pitt 34  Florida St. 31:  That makes it three losses in a row for the Seminoles; this one probably erases completely the euphoria that pervaded Tallahassee after Week 1 when Florida State beat Alabama to open the season.  Not only have they lost three games in a row, but they have also lost three conference games in a row.

USF 63  North Texas 36:  North Texas was previously unbeaten and the Mean Green was at home.  That win should put a spotlight on USF as a potential entry in the CFP as the slot reserved for teams outside the Power 4.

Texas Tech 42  Kansas 17:  Texas Tech has a defense this year; that is highly unusual in Lubbock, TX.  The Red Raiders’ defense had 9 sacks in the game and recorded 12 tackles for a loss.  Tech looks like the class of the Big-12…

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

(Fri Nite) UNC at Cal – 9 (47):  The Bill Belichick experiment heads west …

Buffalo – 17 at UMass (45):  That is the University of Buffalo and not the Buffalo Bills favored by 17 points on the road at UMass …

Old Dominion at James Madison – 1 (47.5):  ODU is rather feisty this year.  The Monarchs are 4-2 this year and one of those losses was to Indiana…

Temple – 12 at UNC-Charlotte (48.5):  It is not flattering to be the opponent when Temple is a 12-point favorite on the road…

Oklahoma – 5 at South Carolina (43):  The Gamecocks already have 3 SEC losses; they are out of that race.  The Sooners on the other hand have only 1 conference loss and this game means a lot to them.  South Carolina is traditionally a lot better at home and that is the venue for this game.

Georgia Tech at Duke – 2.5 (60):  Call this one the College Game of the Week because both teams are undefeated in ACC games.  The Blue Devils have a tough schedule ahead:

• Vs Georgia Tech – – ranked #12
• At Clemson – – never an easy place to play
• At UConn – – probably a tough scrimmage event
• Vs Virginia – – ranked #18 and also undefeated in ACC games as of today
• At UNC – – huge rivalry game
• Vs Wake Forest – – end of regular season

Michigan St. at Indiana – 27 (51):  The Spartans were roasted last week by UCLA and Indiana is better than UCLA …The Hoosiers are not known for taking their foot off the gas pedal, so I’ll take Indiana and lay the points even though I normally ignore games like this; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

LSU at Vandy – 1.5 (48):  I double-checked this; LSU is an underdog to Vandy.  And the sun is coming up in the west tomorrow…

UNLV at Boise St. – 13.5 (61):  UNLV is one of the eleven teams that has not lost yet in 2025; that fact has not impressed the oddsmakers even a little bit.

Mississippi St. at Florida – 10 (51):  Good luck to Fluff Bothwell in the game …

Ole Miss at Georgia – 7 (57):  Ole Miss is undefeated; Georgia’s only loss is a conference loss.  This is a big-time game …

Penn St. at Iowa – 3 (40):  Nine teams in the Big-10 have only one conference loss and Iowa is one of them; so, perhaps this is a meaningful game for the Hawkeyes.  This game is either a wake-up call for the Lions or it will be a sleep-inducing performance.

Ohio St. – 25 at Wisconsin (40.5):  The Badgers were shut out by Iowa last week.  Ohio State allows the fewest points per game in the country (6.8 points per game).  This could get ugly …

USC at Notre Dame – 10 (60.5):  USC was impressive against Michigan last week (see above).  Is Notre Dame really that much better than Michigan?  This is a rivalry game with a long history, so I’ll take USC with those points; put that tin the “Betting Bundle”.

Tennessee at Alabama – 8 (59):  Both teams have one loss in 2025; the Vols’ loss is a conference loss while Alabama is undefeated in SEC games.

Florida St. – 18 at Stanford (54):  The Seminoles have lost 3 games in a row; if they lose this one there could be an insurgency at the airport when the team comes home.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Football games rarely finish with a 25-24 score.  Nevertheless, the Bears have won two straight games with that identical score.   Strange?  Maybe even stranger is that the Bears have now won 3 games in a row and that has not happened in the last 14 NFL regular seasons.

When the Cowboys and the Packers made the “Micah Parsons Trade” just before the season began, it got a ton of attention – – as it should have.  However, with the regular season now in full bloom, there were other players who moved around during the offseason – – earlier than the “Parsons Trade” to be sure – – and three of them seem to be at least as meaningful as Micah Parsons is:

• Stefon Diggs:  He is averaging 5.4 receptions per game and seems to be QB Drake Maye’s preferred option.
• Daniel Jones:  Perhaps getting released by the Giants last year was a blessing.  Jones has played better in Indy in 6 games than he ever played in NY.  The Colts are 5-1-0 with Jones at QB and they are averaging 32.3 points per game.
• Josh Sweat:  In 6 games for the Cards, Sweat has 5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and 10 solo tackles.

            When the Browns and Bengals meet, they refer to the game as the “Battle of Ohio”.  Given the Browns misery this year and the Bengals having to negotiate most of the schedule without Joe burrow, I would like to propose a different slant on the “Battle of Ohio”:

• In the 2025 football season, which will be greater:
  • • Total wins by the Browns plus the Bengals – – OR – –
    • Total wins by Ohio State?

I think State is the right choice here…

I’m sure you have noticed the double-headers on Monday Night Football this year.  The Disney folks own ABC and ESPN so they have plenty of capacity to put on two weeknight games.  However, to attract maximum eyeballs, the “ratings nerds” seem not to be able to decide on the timing of the games.

• Option 1:  Start one game at 7:15 ET and the other at 8:15 ET.  Hope that fans will use the “Recall Buttons” on their remotes to go back and forth between the games and both will be over by midnight ET.
• Option 2:  Start one game at 7:15 ET and the other at 10:15 ET.  That will cost some viewers in the east who do not want to stay up until 1:30 AM but it will put NFL action squarely into primetime in the west.

My preference is Option 2 – – but I am usually up later than midnight anyhow.

Here are some comments on some of last week’s games:

Bears 25  Commanders 24:  The Commanders’ defenders are deficient tacklers; the reason is that too many of them try to level a “kill shot” on the opponent instead of wrapping up the ball carrier.  The narrative around here is that there is no time to “teach tackling” because there is not a lot of practice time available thanks to the CBA and so the team has to live with it.  How about teaching them not to go for “kill shots” by fining any defender who does that and misses getting the ball carrier on the ground?  Call this “Pecuniary Motivation”…

Broncos 13  Jets 11:  Notwithstanding this fetid example of NFL football, the folks in the UK will still allow another NFL game to be played on their soil this week.  It has to be better … no?

Colts 31  Cards 27:  Jacoby Brisset almost pulled this one out for the Cards; here is his stat line as the fill-in for injured QB Kyler Murray:

• 27 of 44 for 320 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT.

Steelers 23  Browns 9:  Dillon Gabriel has a lot of learning to do as an NFL QB …

Panthers 30  Cowboys 27:  Rico Dowdle said this game was personal for him playing against his former team.  Sorry, but I don’t get why he should be upset with the Cowboys:

• The Cowboys signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2020
• He made the team and played there for 4 years
• At the end of that time, they released him and let him sign the best deal he could find with a team of his choice.
• And for that, you are angry with the Cowboys?

Chargers 29  Dolphins 27:  The Chargers tried to give this one away, but the Dolphins didn’t want to take it.

Rams 17  Ravens 3:   Total Offense by both teams combined was less than 550 yards; and yet, there were only 3 punts in the entire game.

Pats 25  Saints 19:  The Pats are in first place in the AFC East; can they stay there?  The Saints are in last place in the NFC South.  It looks like they belong there.

Raiders 20  Titans 10:  The Titans ran the ball only 15 times and threw it 38 times in the game.  Who thought that was a good idea?

Bucs 30  Niners 19:  Do not sleep on the Bucs; that is a good team that should get better as they get players back from injury.

Chiefs 30  Lions 17:  Rumors of the Chiefs’ demise seem to be premature…

Giants 34  Eagles 17:  Here is the question of the moment:

• Is Jaxson Dart this year’s incarnation of Jayden Daniels – – OR – –
• Is the Eagles’ defense not nearly as good as it was in 2024?
• Maybe both?

 

Games This Week:

 

We have two teams on their BYE Weeks – – and both teams need a week off badly:

1. Bills:  They have lost two in a row; they cannot stop the run; their OL is mediocre at best so they do not run the ball well either.
2. Ravens:  They are 1-5-0; they have multiple injuries including Lamar Jackson; the defense has been AWOL for the entire season to date.

(Sun 9:30 ET) Rams – 3 vs Jags (42.5) Game is in London:  The Total Line opened at 46.5 and has been dropping steadily all week.  The Jags’ OL gave up 7 sacks last week; they have to do better in this one.

Raiders at Chiefs – 12.5 (45.5):  I hate NFL games with double-digit spreads.  Even though I think the Chiefs are significantly better than the Raiders, I cannot take them at that number…

Dolphins at Browns – 2.5 (37.5):  This must be the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  If being an underdog to the Browns does not make the Dolphins mad enough to play seriously, then the team needs to find the latter-day Hercules and to task him to “clean out the stables” in Miami.  The weather forecast says there could be winds of 50 mph during the game.  With two bad teams on the field, that could make this an entertaining game to watch – – sort of like the Keystone Kops.  The big difference here is that the Dolphins’’ defense is poor and the Browns’ defense is very good.

Pats – 7 at Titans (42):  Here is a “revenge game” that might matter; Mike Vrabel left Tennessee under less-than-cordial circumstances.

Saints at Bears – 5 (46.5):  The Bears have a relatively soft spot in the schedule here and could extend their 3-game winning streak significantly:

• At Ravens
• At Bengals
• Vs Giants

The Bears are 3-2-0 today and just might be 7-2-0 on November 10^th …

Eagles – 2 at Vikes (44):   The Vikes had a BYE last week; maybe JJ McCarthy can play here – – maybe not?  It would be interesting to see the Eagles play against Carson Wentz just for old time’s sake.

Panthers – 1 at Jets (42.5):  This could have been the Dog-Breath Game of the Week; these are not good teams.  The Panthers are road favorites; I don’t know the last time that was the case, but it might be back when Cam Newton was their QB…  Just a flyer here but give me the UNDER in this one; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

Colts at Chargers – 2 (48):  This is an important game for both teams; the Colts want to maintain control in their division; the Chargers recognize they have plenty of competition in their division and need to hold serve on home games.  I think the scoreboard operator will have his hands full here; give me the OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Giants at Broncos – 7.5 (40.5):  The Giants have a logistical advantage even on the road:

• Giants have a mini-BYE after a Thursday night game
• Broncos had to play in London last week.

Commanders at Cowboys – 1 (53.5):  The spread opened with the Commanders as 2-point favorites but that was reversed by mid-week.  The Total Line here is interesting.  This game could easily go into the low 70s in Total Points; it could also wind up in the mid-40s.  I look for a game that resembles an NBA contest with points galore coming from every angle; give me the OVER here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Packers – 7 at Cards (44.5):  Not sure if Jacoby Brisset or Kyler Murray will be the Cards’ QB here.

(Sun Nite) Falcons at Niners – 2 (47):  The Falcons are on a short week (Monday game last week) and have to travel a long way to the game.  Meanwhile, the Niners may or may not have Brock Purdy available for the game.

(Mon Nite 7:00 PM ET) Bucs at Lions – 5 (53):  Here is the Game of the Week.  Baker Mayfield has been magical this year but, in this game, he will be without the contributions of RB, Bucky Irving, WR, Chris Godwin and WR, Emeka Egbuka.  Moreover, Mikek Evans is only questionable to play here.  I think that is too much of an ask for Baker this week; give me the Lions to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Mon Nite 10:00PM ET) Texans at Seahawks – 3 (41):  The Seahawks’ defense is tough; the Texans OL, is not tough.  That could be the deciding factor in the game.

So let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Indiana – 27 over Michigan St.
• USC +10 against Notre Dame
• Commanders/Cowboys OVER 53.5
• Lions – 5 over Bucs
• Colts/Chargers OVER 48
• Panthers/Jets UNDER 42.5

            And let us not forget three Money Line Parlays”

• Northwestern @ minus-150
• Michigan @ minus-200                       $100 wager to win $150

And …

• Pats @minus-300
• Packers @ minuis-320
• Lions @ minus-260                             $100 wager to win $142

And …

• Falcons @ minus-115
• Eagles @ minus-139                          $100 wager to win $231

Final ly these words from Bud Wilkinson:

“The man who tried his best and failed is superior to the man who never tired.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I am tired of writing about fired football coaches; so, I’ll postpone comment on some other firings until later and check a few other items from my clipboard.  I will start with the New England Patriots who find themselves in first place in the AFC East this week with a record of 4-2-0.  Back in August, I thought the Pats would finish the season at 7-10-0; I said they would be significantly improved this year over last year, but I did not consider them “division winning material”.  I still do not think they will win the AFC East, but looking at the Pats’ schedule between now and December 14^th when they play the Bills again in Foxboro this time, they could be in solid playoff contention:

• At Titans:  Titans are 1-5-0 and Pats are 3-0-0 on the road this year.
• Vs Browns:  Browns are 1-5-0
• Vs Falcons:  Could be a tough home game for the Pats
• At Bucs:  This will be a stress test for the Pats
• Vs Jets:  Jets are the only winless team in the NFL now – – for good reason.
• At Bengals:  Without Joe Burrow, this team is beatable
• Vs Giants:  Is Jaxon Dart this year’s Jayden Daniels or not?
• BYE Week
• Dec 14, 2025:  The Bills come to Foxboro

The Pats could be 9-4-0 coming into that rematch with the Bills off a BYE Week to prepare.  That would be a significant surprise for this NFL season; the Pats won only 4 games in all of 2024.

I am not remotely trying to “write off” the Bills in the AFC East.  [Aside:  I am perfectly willing to write off the Dolphins and the Jets in that division … but not the Bills.]  The first month or so of this season showed that the Bills have flaws that opponents can exploit.  One glaring flaw is the Bills’ defense against the run; the Bills just do not stop the run.  So far in 2025, the Bills have given up more yards rushing that all but one other team.

• Rush yards allowed = 938 or 156.3 yards per game
• Rush yards allowed per attempt = 5.8 – – worst in the NFL.

The Bills’ inability to stop the run hurts the team along two dimensions:

1. It allows opponents to move the ball regularly and confidently.
2. It keeps the Bills’ All-World QB, Josh Allen, on the bench and not on the field.

Moving on …  The NFL regular season is about one-third over; there are some unusual numbers in the standings this morning that are probably more interesting than they are important.

• The Bucs are 5-1-0 for the season; no team has a better record today; nonetheless, the Bucs point differential is a measly +14.
• The Steelers are 4-1-0 for the season; the Steelers point differential is +12
• The Eagles are 4-2-0 for the season; the Eagles point differential is minus-1.
• The Niners are 4-2-0 for the season; the Niners point differential is minus-3
• The Chargers are 4-2-0 for the season; the Chargers point differential is +2
• The Bears are 3-2-0 for the season; the Bears point differential is minus-15.
• The Texans are 2-3-0 for the season; the Texans point differential is +47
• The Cards are 2-4-0 for the season; the Cards point differential is +3.

The best point differential in the NFL this morning is +78 and that stature belongs to the Indy Colts.  The worst point differential in the NFL this morning is minus-80 and that position of embarrassment belongs to the Cincy Bengals.  Lest you are wondering … the Bengals and the Colts do not play each other in this season…

Finally, this from Alfred North Whitehead:

“It requires a very unusual mind to undertake the analysis of the obvious.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The Tennessee Titans were first out of the gate in the race to fire their head coach in the midst of the 2025 season; yesterday, the team announced that Brian Callahan was no longer welcome in their facilities.  In one sense, this was to be expected; Callahan had been on the job for one full season in 2024 and 6 games in the 2025 schedule.  His overall record there was 4-19-0 and those numbers are not usually associated with coaching job security.  But I think there is more to this situation than just the numbers.

Brian Callahan got the job in Tennessee based on his performance as the Bengals’ offensive coordinator from 2019 through 2024; he was seen as an innovative offensive mind there and indeed, the Bengals made it to the Super Bowl once during his tenure there.  However, he worked with Joe Burrow as his QB in Cincy; whether you believe that Callahan “developed” Burrow or that Burrow turned Callahan’s strategies into victories, I think it is important to recognize that Joe Burrow is an exceptional NFL QB.

So, Brian Callahan arrives in Tennessee and finds Will Levis and Malik Willis as the incumbent QBs.  Bearing exactly no malice toward either player, there is not an innate talent level equivalent to Joe Burrow in the house.  And suddenly, Brian Callahan’s concepts do not work nearly as well.

• Is he deficient in not altering his offensive construct to exploit better the talent that he does have at the position?  Possibly – – maybe even probably.
• But is less than a season and a half sufficient time for the folks upstairs in Tennessee to conclude that Brian Callahan is a bust as a head coach?

Let me examine that last angle.  The Titans’ owner is Amy Adams Strunk; the only thing I know about her background is that she is the daughter of the late Bud Adams who founded the team as the Houston Oilers in the old AFL back in the 1960s.  Based on reports of recent happenings involving the franchise, I am beginning to think that she has an itch in her trigger finger when I comes to firing people.

• Mike Vrabel was the head coach of the Titans from 2018 to 2023.  Vrabel’s teams made 3 playoff appearances and Vrabel was named NFL Coach of the Year in 2021.  Mike Vrabel was fired after the 2023 season.
• The Titans hired Ran Carthon to be their GM in 2023; he was fired after the 2024 season.
• Brian Callahan lasted less than a season and a half as noted above.
• Hmmm …

With those events as a backdrop, I would hesitate to try to name Callahan’s successor in Tennessee starting in 2026.  Rather, let me speculate on the sort of coach/person who would seek that job.  Let me start with a premise that affects young coaches who are regarded as “the next big thing” in the coaching cosmos – – sort of like what people thought of Brian Callahan in 2024:

• Young coaches get two bites of the apple.  One of them needs to be an unvarnished success or their career aspirations need to be adjusted to “constant coordinator” and not “head coach”.

If that premise is close to correct, then there are some highly regarded coordinators in the NFL now who have already taken “one bite of the apple” and would need to look carefully at the situation in Tennessee to see if that is where they want to take that “second bite.”  Coaches who fall into that category include:

• Brian Flores
• Kliff Kingsbury
• Adam Nagy
• Arthur Smith
• Robert Saleh

There are always a few “greybeards” available to take coaching positions in the NFL.  Coaches in this category are “out of work” at the moment, but they have credentials in the past that make them alluring.  Jon Gruden and Mike McCarthy fit that description now.  However, there is a real gamble in going down that road:

• Maybe you find someone like Dick Vermeil whose “second tour” in the NFL was more successful than his first. – – OR – –
• Maybe you find Joe Gibbs 2.0 who produced a losing record in his second stint on the sidelines as compared to 3 Super Bowl wins in his first.

And of course, there are always folks out there who will take a job as a head coach to collect the generous salary that such a position commands.  Owners who get the reputation as “mercurial” often wind up with coaches in this category.  [Aside: I wonder if some of the coaches hired by Danny Boy Snyder knew from the start that it would not work out well – – but they would have checks to cash no matter what.]

The Tennessee Titans are not a good football team in October 2025.  They have the overall #1 pick from last year’s draft at QB, and he has not exactly taken the league by storm.  In 6 games in 2025, Cam Ward has amassed a total of 1101 yards passing; he has thrown 3 TDs, and he has thrown 4 INTs.

So, what is the “ambience” of the job in Tennessee?

• Is the QB merely suffering growing pains – – or is he never going to be top-shelf?
• Is the owner “mercurial” – – or have these recent hirings/firings been unfortunate occurrences?

And overlaying all the above, this is one of only 32 such positions in the known universe.  That alone makes it a desirable situation.

Finally, I’ll close today with this from Sir Winston Churchill:

“You can always count on Americans to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Back in August, I did a College Football Pre-Season “analysis” rant and put there six coaches at major college football programs who might be on a hot seat for this season.  James Franklin at Penn State was not on that list; and truth be told, his name never entered my mind as being even slightly in danger of being canned.

There was a “negative narrative” out there about Franklin and his teams.  They were always good enough to set up a late season “big game” that might lead to a championship game or something like that; they were normally not good enough to win that “big game” so the season ended on a downer even if the overall record was something like 12-2.  The Penn State fan base is an avid one but they never crossed the line into being delusional to the point where they thought playing for the national championship 3 years out of every 5 years was a birthright – – as is the case with some other schools I won’t mention here.  That “negative narrative” did not appear threatening to me.

However, after losing to Oregon at home on “White-Out Night” (not desirable but acceptable since Oregon seemed to be a rival contender for Big-10 Championship Game participation) and then losing at UCLA despite being a 24-point favorite, there was unrest among the common folk in Happy Valley.  Not to worry, Northwestern was coming to State College the next weekend and that would make things right with the Nittany Lions’ universe.

Not so.  Northwestern kicked off as a 21-point underdog and won the game outright in State College in front of more than 100,000 eye witnesses.  And in the paroxysms anger, frustration and rage, Penn State fired James Franklin.

If I understand the reports I have read about his contract, it cost the university $48M to fire Franklin for something other than “cause” as outlined in the contract.  His deal was for $8M per year with a “retention bonus” for each season that he was the head coach there through the end of the 2031 season.  So, before I go even one word further, do not worry for James Franklin’s family and their ability to keep food on the table.

In case you do not recall how Franklin wound up at Penn State in the first place, here is the Cliff Notes version:

• Vandy hired Franklin after the 2010 season.  At that time, Vandy had had one winning season and one bowl appearance between 1983 and 2010.  Vandy was an SEC punching bag.
• Franklin was at Vandy for 3 seasons; his Vandy teams went to bowl games in each of those three seasons and won two of those bowl games.  At the end of the 2013 season, James Franklin was a hot commodity and was seen as someone who could “turn things around” in a football program.
• At the end of the 2013 season, Penn State football was in tatters.  Bill O’Brien had been the head coach there for two seasons after the Jerry Sandusky scandal that unseated Joe Paterno as the eternal coach at the school.  Football fortunes were stagnant in Happy Valley, and the school signed Franklin to put the team back on a course of “national relevance”.
• From 2014 through 2024, Penn State had gone 102-42; it had been in bowl games every season except for the foreshortened one in 2020.

And here we are in 2025 …  The Nittany Lions began the season beating up on three cupcakes by a combined margin of 121 points.  Then came that “White Out” night encounter with Oregon and here we are two weeks after that “big game loss”.  And the schedule does not look good from here on out.

The Lions’ offense had been powered by Drew Allar at QB; he suffered an injury in the Northwestern game that will have him out for the rest of the season.  And here is the upcoming schedule:

• At Iowa:  The Hawkeyes just pitched a shut-out against Wisconsin
• At Ohio St.:  The Buckeyes would have been favored even if Allar was playing.
• Vs. Indiana:  The Hoosiers just beat Oregon last weekend.
• At Michigan St.:  That game still looks winnable.
• Vs. Nebraska:  My “sleeper team” from last year is ranked in the Top 25 this year.
• At Rutgers:  Losing to Rutgers would be full-scale ignominy for the Penn State faithful.

            Terry Smith will be the interim head coach for the Nittany Lions.  He is a former Penn State player and has been an assistant coach there for more than 10 years.  The program is in disarray, but the program is a prestigious one; so, the Athletic Director has time to sift through the possibilities to find someone who has shown the ability to “turn things around” for a football program.  Someone like James Franklin was back in 2014 …

Finally, since today has been about a beginning and an end, let me close with this observation by comedian George Burns:

“The secret of a good sermon is to have a good beginning and a good ending, then having the two as close together as possible.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

My long-suffering wife said this morning that I am a creature of habit.  I told her that I did not have time to discuss that with her because it was Friday morning and I needed to get busy writing this week’s Football Friday.  So, I will begin – as usual – with a review of last week’s wagering predictions.

• Spreads and Totals:  2-3-0    Not good.
• Season To Date:        6-14-0  Yuck!

And …

• Money Line Parlays: 0-2       Loss = $200
• Season To Date:        4-8       Loss = $86

The Linfield University Wildcats opened the conference portion of their season with a 35-17 win over Geroge Fox University; that puts the Wildcats at 2-1-0 for the season as they try to keep alive their streak of winning football seasons that goes all the way back to 1956.  This week is Homecoming in McMinnville, OR and Linfield will host Pacific University who will arrive with a record of 1-3-0 for the season.  Go Wildcats!

My sleeper team for 2025 – – Georgia Tech – – had last week off and will put their undefeated season on the line tomorrow against Virginia Tech.

 

College Football Commentary:

 

With the college season nearing the halfway mark and since I mentioned Georgia Tech’s undefeated status above, let me note here that there is a total of 15 Division 1-A college football teams that are unbeaten as of this morning.  Of course, here in Curmudgeon Central, we always need to look at the other end of the spectrum so let me also note that as of this morning, here are the schools who are winless in 2025:

1. Oregon St.      0-6-0    PAC-12 “remnants”
2. Sam Houston  0-6-0    C-USA
3. UMass             0-5-0    MAC

That’s it; that’s the list …

I have often pointed out the folly of putting any significant measure of credence in pre-season polls for football or basketball but the results this year are stunningly bad.  Most polls had Texas at #1 and Penn State at #2 in the pre-season polling.  We are still 3 weeks shy of Halloween and both Texas and Penn State have lost two games.

In the case of Penn State, lots of the “blame” has been heaped on Coach James Franklin using the narrative that his teams can never win a big game.  That is what the record says, but I think that is a tad more simplistic than it needs to be.  Nonetheless, fans of the Lions have called for heads to roll in “Happy Valley” which is an interesting contradiction.

Looking at Texas, lots of people are happy to point the finger at Arch Manning saying that he is not nearly as good as the reputation that he has simply by dint of his surname.  Trust me; I am not about to try to argue that he has been wonderful and that his team has lost despite his greatness.  I read a report that said Manning averaged 3.5 seconds to throw the ball against Florida last week; that is way too long and that needs to be corrected.  However, consider also the following data:

• Florida recorded 5 sacks against Texas last week.  That is on the OL.
• Florida pressured Manning on 58% of pass plays.  That is on the OL.
• Texas RBs gained a total of 15 yards on 11 carries against Florida; Manning gained 37 yards on his scrambles.  [Aside: It was not just last week against Florida; Arch Manning is Texas’ leading rusher for the season.]

If the preseason teams ranked #1 and #2 are to have a shot at the CFP in December, they will both need to win out from here.  It could happen – – but not if Texas and Penn State play the way they did last week.

I mentioned about a week ago that the NCAA had proposed changes to “The Portal” and that the proposed changes needed the blessing of the NCAA Division 1 Administrative Committee.  Well, that august body has convened and has announced changes to the ways that players may transfer from school to school.  Here is the Cliff Notes version.

• One transfer portal window from Jan 2-Jan 16, 2026, for football players.
• Players with CFP games after Jan 16 can choose to enter “the Portal” within 5 days after their final CFP game.
• Also, a portal window will open for players on teams with fired coaches or newly hired coaches.  They can enter “the Portal” within a 15-day period beginning five days after a coach was fired or a new coach was hired.

It looks as if sanity prevailed on that issue.  Let us all give thanks for that…

Here are comments on some of last week’s games:

Navy 34  Air Force 31:  I said last week that a double-digit spread on a game between two of the service academies was very unusual.

Clemson 38  UNC 10:  I got a note from #2 son earlier this week with the following comment about Bill Belichick and his foray into college coaching:

• “He’s finding out it is more difficult to coach college age kids than it is to date them.”

Arizona 41  Oklahoma St. 13:  The Cowboys are 0-2 and have been outscored 86-50 in the “post-Mike Gundy Era”.  Maybe he was not the entirety of the problem there?

UVa 30  Louisville 27 (OT):  The Cavaliers are 5-1 on the season; I did not see that coming…

Alabama 30  Vandy 14:  Vandy is 5-1 on the season.

Texas Tech 35  Houston 11:  The Red Raiders are 5-0 in 2025 and they have a good defense for once.  They rank 9^th in the country in Total Defense giving up only 244.4 yards per game.

UNLV 31  Wyoming 17:  UNLV is 5-0 in 2025.

Memphis 45  Tulsa 7:  Memphis is 6-0 so far in 2025.

Texas A&M 31  Mississippi St. 9:  The Aggies are 5-0 for the season.

BYU 38  West Virginia 24:  BYU is 5-0 this year.

Washington 24  Maryland 20:  Maryland led 20-3 at the start of the fourth quarter at home and coughed up a hairball here.

Miami 28  Florida St. 22:  Miami led 28-3 at the start of the fourth quarter and held on to win this one.

Ohio St. 42  Minnesota 3:  This was total domination by the Buckeyes:

• Ohio St. Total Offense = 474 yards
• Minnesota Total Offense = 162 yards
• Ohio St. Third Down Conversions = 7 of 10
• Minnesota Third Down Conversions = 1 of 11

 

NCAA Games of Interest This Week:

 

Looking at the sportsbooks around the world, here is the only outrageous spread – – defined as 5 TDs or more – – for the week:

• Cornell at Harvard – 37.5 (58.5)

[Aside:  Betting on Ivy League football?  Who does that?  Really?]

UMass at Kent St. – 3 (51):  This could well be a preview game for the SHOE Tournament in December.  UMass is winless.  Kent St. has one win over a Division 1-AA team by 4 points.  Against Division 1-A opponents Kent St. has been outscored 203-52.  And Kent St. is the favorite in the game …

Navy – 10 at Temple (52):  Interesting matchup here …  Navy leads the nation in rushing offense.  Temple ranks 99^th in the nation in rushing defense.

Northwestern at Penn St. – 21.5 (48):  Two weeks ago, Northwestern beat UCLA; last week, UCLA beat Penn State; now Northwestern comes State College, PA to play Penn State.  If the Lions lose this game at home …

Va Tech at Ga Tech – 15 (54.5):  Georgia Tech seeks to maintain its unbeaten status for the season.  The Hokies have been playing much better with their interim coach recently.

Iowa – 3 at Wisconsin (38):  I think there will be a lot of punting in this game…  Iowa ranks 115^th in the nation in Total Offense; Wisconsin ranks 126^th in Total Offense.  Wisconsin has lost 3 games in a row and has only scored a total of 34 points in those three losses.  Iowa has a tough defense.  I know Wisconsin is a tough environment for visitors, but I think this game sets up for Iowa; I’ll take the Hawkeyes to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Alabama – 3 at Missouri (51):  Mizzou is undefeated for the season; both teams are undefeated in SEC games.  This is an important matchup.

Michigan at USC – 2.5 (56):  Both teams are 4-1 on the season and both teams are football blue bloods.  So, why is there no energy around this game?  Michigan’s schedule from here on out looks soft to me; they could easily be in the top echelon of the Big-10 in December.

Oklahoma vs. Texas “pick ‘em” (44.5):  This is a huge rivalry game; this is a conference game; the Sooners are undefeated, and the Longhorns need to win out if they want to be in the CFP conversation.  And yet, this is not my Game of the Week …

Indiana at Oregon – 7 (54):  This is my College Game of the Week.  Both teams are undefeated.  Both teams have blown the doors off opponents.  Both teams aspire to the Big 10 Championship Game.  Both teams aspire to the CFP.  Oregon QB, Dante Moore, is completing 75% of his passes and has thrown 14 TDs so far this season.  Indiana’s defense looks good statistically, but I don’t think any of their opponents so far has the firepower of Oregon.  I like Oregon at home to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Florida at Texas A&M – 7.5 (47):  Apparently, the Gators’ win over Texas last week was not impressive to the oddsmakers.

Georgia – 3.5 at Auburn (47):  Auburn at home is a different team from Auburn on the road.

Air Force at UNLV – 6.5 (64.5):  I think this is a letdown game for Air Force after losing to Navy last week.  UNLV is an undefeated team that has been under the radar so far in 2025.  I like UNLV here to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The NY Jets are 0-5-0; they are the only winless team in the NFL today.  The anticipated revitalization of the Jets under new head coach Aaron Glenn is going to be a long-term process and not instant gratification for Jets’ fans.  With Glenn starting out his head coaching stint with the Jets at 0-5, he joins three other Jets’ coaches who began seasons with 0-5 records:

• Walt Michaels (1980) – – The Jets wound up 4-12-0 that season
• Rich Kotite (1996) – – The Jets wound up 1-15-0 that season
• Adam Gase (2020) – – The Jets wound up 2-14-0 that season.
• Aaron Glenn (2025) – – The Jets wound up …???

Aaron Glenn may turn out to be an outstanding head coach in the NFL when his career is over.  Having said that, this is not a list that he would want his name to be on.  The Jets are in London this week against the Broncos and that looks like another “L” in the standings.  However, when the Jets get back home their schedule hits a soft spot:

• Vs. Panthers
• At Bengals
• BYE Week
• Vs. Browns

Yes, I know that the Ravens’ defense has had injuries and should improve once those players are back in the game.  Nonetheless, the fall off in defensive performance for the Ravens has been outrageous.  In their 4 losses so far in 2025, the Ravens have given up 160 points; you do not need a calculator to see that is 40 points per game!  The Ravens are last in the NFL in Points Allowed and they lead the next worst defense by more than 20 points.  Not that this is likely to be meaningful, but here is an OVER/UNDER proposition to consider:

• Date when Ravens’ Defensive Coordinator is fired
  • • OVER/UNDER – – Halloween

Why do I think a firing is coming?  Last week, the Ravens lost 44-10 against the Texans.  The Texans had scored a total of 6 TDs in their first four games in 2025 and then came into Baltimore and scored 5 TDs on that defense.  I don’t know that a firing of a Defensive Coordinator will right the ship, but something needs to be done to get that unit back to some semblance of a recognizable Ravens’ defense.

Let me take a moment here to point out a statistical anomaly.  The Atlanta Falcons currently lead the NFL in Total Defense; the Falcons only allow 244 yards per game.  The median NFL defense – – Seahawks – – gives up 322.8 yards per game.  Nonetheless, the Falcons record so far is only 2-2-0 and they have been outscored by 10 points in those games.

The Total Defense stats here are misleading.  In 4 games, the Falcons have faced JJ McCarthy who has been underwhelming at best, Marcus Mariota and Bryce Young.  That is not a QB list that will keep Defensive Coordinators up at night.

When the Raiders signed Pete Carroll as the coach and then traded to acquire Geno Smith who had played respectably under Carroll in Seattle, it looked as if the Raiders were finally going to have some adult supervision in 2025.  Not yet this season…  The Raiders are 1-4-0 and the Carroll/Smith tandem has not produced much in the way of consistency.  One of the sports radio guys here in DC called Geno Smith “The Turnover Machine” and that is not exactly slanderous if you focus only on 2025; he has thrown 9 INTs in 5 games.  On the plus side, he has not lost a fumble this season – – but those 9 INTs are awful.

I assert that the Raiders needed to make that trade for Smith because they had to get an upgrade at the position from 2024 when the starters were:

• Gardner Minshew – – 9 games
• Aidan O’Connell – – 7 games
• Desmond Ridder – – 1 game

However, I think the Raiders showed “irrational exuberance” [Hat Tip to Alan Greenspan here.] lavishing a 2-year and $75M contract extension on Smith meaning he is under contract with them until after the 2027 season.  The backup in Las Vegas is Kenny Pickett, which is not a comforting thought for Raiders’ fans – – but he will become inevitable if Smith continues on the performance trajectory to date this year.

Here are some brief comments from some of last week’s games:

Jags 31  Chiefs 28:  The Jags’ defense is for real.

Vikes 21  Browns 17:  Carson Wentz led a come-from-behind game winning drive against the Browns’ defense.  Surprise …!

Broncos 21  Eagles 17:  Broncos scored 18 unanswered points in the 4^th quarter for the win.

Cowboys 37  Jets 22:  This game was never really in doubt.  It was 23-3 at halftime and 30-6 after three quarters …

Texans 44  Ravens 10:  The Texans’ offense had been anemic for the first 4 games and then they racked up 44 points and 417 yards of offense here.

Colts 40  Raiders 6:  It may not have been as close as that…

Panthers 27  Dolphins 24:  Rico Dowdle gained 206 yards rushing and on 23 carries to lead the Panthers to this win.  The Dolphins led 17-0 at one point in this game.

Saints 26  Giants 14:  The Giants turned the ball over on 5 consecutive possessions here.

Bucs 38  Seahawks 35:  The Bucs reached into their pockets for a pinch of pixie dust once again in this win.  They were down 7 points with 3 minutes to play and pulled out another nailbiter.

Titans 22  Cards 21:  This game was a gift given to the Titans for the Holidays – – except it came early.

Lions 37  Bengals 24:  This game looks closer than it really was; the Lions led 28-3 at the start of the 4^th quarter.  Those Bengals’ scores were not meaningful.

Commanders 27  Chargers 10:  The Commanders looked very good in this one and the Chargers just gave up the ghost going scoreless after the first quarter.

Pats 23  Bills 20:  This was one of the most entertaining games I’ve seen this year.

Niners 26  Rams 23 (OT):  The Rams outgained the Niners by 50 yards – – and lost.

 

NFL Games This Week:

 

We have 2 teams on their BYE Week:

1. Texans:  This is introspection week in Houston.  If the offense really came to life last week, the team can reasonably expect to make a run in the AFC South even though the Colts and the Jags look better this year than in recent years.
2. Vikes:  They have been in Europe for two weeks; they need to reintroduce themselves to their kids.

In last night’s Giants win over the Eagles there was an important question posed for NFL fans:

• Are Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo as good as they showed last night such that the Giants are resurgent – – OR – –
• Are the Eagles not nearly as good as they were last season?

Broncos – 7 vs. Jets (43.5) Game is in London:  Not only are the Jets bad (see above) it is their defense that has been surprisingly bad.  This could well be a jump-start game for Bo Nix and the Broncos’ offense.

Browns at Steelers – 5 (38):  The Browns played “on the road” last week in London and now they go on the road again to Pittsburgh.  That could be tough for a good team and the Browns are not a good team.

Cards at Colts – 7 (47):  The spread opened at 3.5 points and ballooned when Kyler Murray did not practice Wednesday.  Cards’ coach, Jonathan Gannon, is a defense guy but his pass defense this year has been miserable ranking 28^th in passing yards allowed per game.  Why is that miserable?  Here are the QBs that have tested the Cards pass defense so far in 2025:

• Sam Darnold
• Mac Jones
• Spencer Rattler
• Cam Ward
• Bryce Young

I don’t see lots of All-Pro contenders there…  I don’t want to imply that Daniel Jones is an All-Pro contender this week, but he is better than many of the ones listed above.  I’ll take the Colts to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Rams – 7.5 at Ravens (44.5):  The Rams’ defense played poorly last week, and the Ravens’ defense has played poorly for the entire season.

Seahawks at Jags – 1 (45):  Two sportsbooks have this game as “pick ‘em”.  The Jags’ defense has been most opportunistic.

• Jags have 10 INTs in 5 games
• Jags have recovered 4 fumbles in 5 games
• Jags have given up only 20 points per game

Cowboys – 3 at Panthers (49.5):  The Cowboys’ offense is hitting on all cylinders and that ought to continue to be the case this week.  The question has to do with the Cowboys’ defense, which is not very good and its matchup with the Panthers’ offense which is also not very good.

Chargers – 3.5 at Dolphins (43.5):  The Chargers started the season 3-0 and have now lost two games in a row.  The Dolphins just stink; their win was against the winless Jets.  I am tempted to take the Chargers but not with a transcontinental trip to make.  One of these two fanbases will be in full panic mode come Sunday night.

Niners at Bucs – 2 (47):  Both teams are 4-1; both teams lead their divisions; both teams need a win to maintain control there.  Therefore, this is the Game of the Week.  Who has the advantage here?  The Bucs are at home and the Niners cross 3 time zones to play the game.  The Niners had a mini-BYE week since they played on Thursday night last week.  You make the call.

Titans at Raiders – 5 (41.5):  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Both teams are already irrelevant in 2025 and the only potentially interesting thing for this game has to do with Ashton Jeanty.  The Titans’ run defense is awful; they give up 147 yards per game.  Running Jeanty as the feature back and not asking Geno Smith to throw the ball too often looks like an interesting gambit.  Will Pete Carroll do that?

Pats – 4 at Saints (46):  Both teams are coming off a win last week.  The Saints should not count on getting 5 turnovers on consecutive possessions again this week.  I lean toward the Pats here, but I am not yet to the point where I trust them…

Bengals at Packers – 15.5 (45):  Hard to imagine how the Bengals might win this game – – but a 15.5 point spread in an NFL game is not anything I want to deal with.  FYI, if you like the Bengals to win outright, the Money Line on the Bengals is +835.

(Sun Nite) Lions at Chiefs – 2.5 (52.5):  Last year, the Chiefs won 11 one-score games; this year the Chiefs are 0-3 in one-score games.  These are both good teams and the Chiefs certainly need the game much more than the Lions do – – but I like the Lions here to win outright.  So, give me those points and put it in the “Betting Bundle.”

(Mon Nite 7:15 PM ET) Bills – 4 at Falcons (50):  I think Josh Allen and the Bills will want to get the taste of defeat out of their mouths here and as noted above, the Falcons’ defensive stats for this season are as much a mirage as substance.  I think both teams will move the ball and score points, so I like the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Mon Nite 8 :15 PM ET) Bears at Commanders – 4.5 (50):  It was about this point in the 2024 season where the Commanders beat the Bears on a Hail Mary pass as time expired.  That sent the Commanders on a run to the playoffs; that sent the Bears into a tailspin and a last place finish in their division.  Can history repeat itself?

Let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

1. Oregon – 7 over Indiana
2. Iowa – 3 over Wisconsin
3. UNLV – 6.5 over Air Force
4. Lions + 2.5 against Chiefs
5. Colts – 7 over Cards
6. Bills/Falcons OVER 50

And here are three Money Line Parlays for your reading pleasure:

• Georgia @ minus-170
• Iowa @ minus-160                 $100 wager to win $158

And …

• Lions @ +115
• Cowboys @ minus-160        $100 wager to win $249

And …

• Niners @ +140
• Commanders @ minus-220 $100 Wager to win $249.

Finally, let’s hear from Mike Ditka:

“If God had wanted man to play soccer, he wouldn’t have given us arms.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

My long-suffering wife and I are at our weekend home in Central Pennsylvania and when we arose this morning the temperature was 38 degrees Fahrenheit; summer is over around here and as I looked at the MLB Playoff results from yesterday it once again struck me that baseball is intended to be a “summer sport” and not one played in frigid conditions.  Nonetheless, the teams still alive in the playoffs continue to soldier on…

And there is a mirror image situation to the “baseball-in-October/November” condition, and it should become very apparent next summer.  In the summer of 2026, the FIFA World Cup will be hosted in North America by Canada, Mexico and the US.  A report by an independent body found that 10 of the 16 venues for that World Cup tournament “are at very high risk of experiencing extreme heat stress conditions.”

I have no interest in launching into a discussion of “global warming” nor “climate change” other than to say that NASA data taken from space proves conclusively that the planet is getting warmer and that the cause(s) for that warming trend are not nearly as conclusively proven.  But the planet is getting hotter and that means the weather in summertime is also getting hotter on average.

Back in 2022, the World Cup was assigned to Qatar where summer temperatures were so extreme that FIFA moved the entire tournament from the traditional May/June/July timeframe to November/December 2022.  The 2026 games should not need such a drastic measure, but FIFA has already awarded the 2030 and 2034 tournaments to:

• Morocco/Spain/Portugal in 2030
• Saudi Arabia in 2034.

FIFA has an established rule that determines when game conditions require a stoppage for player hydration breaks; based on last summer’s experience with the Club World Cup events held in North America, there is a high likelihood that such hydration breaks will be needed in most of the venues for next year’s World Cup games.  And given the warming trend for the planet, the games in 2030 and again in 2034 will be no better.

In Qatar the weather was hot and humid; in North America in the summer, the weather can also be hot and humid PLUS in some areas there can be violent thunderstorms and windy conditions.  Even if you ignore the potential effects on games by wind and rain in the summer, look to the mandatory hydration break threshold as a warning sign.

• According to the independent report, “Temperatures in Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Miami and Monterrey exceeded that mark for two months or more.”
• Should a major heat event hit Mexico City on a game day, there would be the added stress on players of heat plus playing at elevation exceeding 7,000 feet.

It may be time for FIFA and the various major soccer leagues around the world to figure out how to play the FIFA World Cup tournaments in the cooler months of the year depending on where the games are assigned.

• If Finland were the host nation, summer games would probably be OK.
• If Nigeria were the host nation, summer games would not be a good idea.

Moving on …  The timing of some events just cannot be established with certainty; the chicken/egg conundrum immediately comes to mind.  However, some are sufficiently independent of each other, leading to the case where either one could come first or last.  Now consider the situation where Mark Sanchez is recovering from his stabbing and facing felony charges for the fight leading to the stabbing while Sanchez was reportedly “intoxicated”.  So, which comes first:

• FOX fires Sanchez as a color analyst – – OR – –
• Sanchez announces that he is going into alcohol rehab?

And then you can add an OVER/ UNDER element to that question and determine when the first of those two actions takes place.

• I’ll set the OVER/UNDER date at Halloween …

Finally, having spent time on the World Cup today, let me close with this from Pele:

“When you play against dirty players or very tough players, it’s easy to escape because you know what they’re going to do. But when the player is tough but intelligent, it’s much more difficult.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The 2025 NFL season is out of its infancy and is now undergoing puberty and its teenage years.  Meanwhile, up in Canada, the CFL regular season is drawing to a close.  CFL teams play 18 games in a season; as of today, teams there have played either 15 or 16 games already.  There are an odd number of teams in the CFL so there is a team on a BYE Week in every week of the season and teams get 3 BYE Weeks apiece in the CFL.

I think the CFL has an excellent structural element in its playoff selection process.  Six teams are going to make the playoffs and ideally that would be three teams from the East and three teams from the West based on regular season records and established tiebreakers.  However, the CFL puts a twist in the selection process that makes a ton of sense.  It is called the “Crossover”.  It is simple and it makes sense:

• If the fourth-place team in either the East or the West Division has a better regular season record than the third-place team in the other division, then that fourth-place team “crosses over” and becomes a playoff participant in the other division’s bracket.

If the CFL regular season were over as of last weekend, there would be a “Crossover team”.

• The third-place team in the East as of this morning is the Toronto Argonauts with a 5-11-0 record.
• The fourth-place team in the East as of this morning is the Ottawa Redblacks with a 4-11-0 record.
• In the West both the Calgary Stampeders and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers have an 8-7-0 record.
• If the season were over today, tie breakers would put either Calgary or Winnipeg in third place in the West – – and the West Division playoffs – – , and the fourth-place team would “cross over” and take a spot in the East Division playoff bracket.
• How sensible is that …!

To save you from the trouble of web searching, four CFL teams have guaranteed themselves a playoff slot, but no team has clinched the Division championship which is important in the CFL playoff structure because the Division Champs each get a bye in the six-team bracket.  Here are the two Division races as of this morning; these teams will be in the playoffs somewhere:

• In the East:
  • • Hamilton                      10-6-0
    • Montreal                      8-7-0
• In the West:
  • • Saskatchewan:           11-4-0
    • BC:                              9-7-0

No “Crossover Team” has ever made it to the Grey Cup Game.  I believe the last time there was a Crossover Team that won a playoff game and made it to the Division Final game was in 2009 when the BC Lions crossed over to the East, won its first-round playoff game and then lost in the East Finals to Montreal.  The ”Crossover Rule” does not happen every year and it has never produced a CFL Champion, but the rule provides for competitive balance and makes more late season games relevant than if it did not exist.

Moving on … Since I was looking at Canadian Football above, let me turn my attention to another league outside the US – – the English Premier League.  Their season is still young with plenty of time for dramatic changes, but a few things look as if they need to be followed.  As usual, I focus on the bottom of the league table at this point in the season to look at the possible races to avoid relegation.  The three teams in the relegation zone today all look pretty weak:

• Burnley            1 win    1 draw             5 losses
• West Ham       1 win    1 draw             5 losses
• Wolves            0 wins  2 draws           5 losses

Three teams were promoted from the Championship to the EPL this year.  One of those teams is Burnley and you can see from above that Burnley is not doing well so far at the EPL level.  However, the other two recently promoted teams seem to be competitive:

1. Sunderland      3 wins  2 draws           2 losses            Ninth place (out of 20)
2. Leeds United   2 wins  2 draws           3 losses            Fifteenth place

Finally, I said above that the CFL Crossover rule was a good idea.  Not all “crossover ideas” make sense however as Chirstopher Lloyd points out here:

“On ‘Frasier,’ a network executive once suggested that one week we have John Lithgow play Frasier and Kelsey Grammar play Lithgow’s role on ‘3rd Rock from the Sun;’ I’ve been deeply afraid of the idea of a crossover ever since.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The NCAA and MLB were two hidebound organizations that were losing relevance quickly.  MLB reacted positively with pitch clocks and shift restrictions to improve its entertainment product significantly.  It took a significant loss in a courtroom for the NCAA to rouse itself from its slumber but – – contrary to previous behavior – – the NCAA saw a cumbersome and chaotic situation and acted to try to make it more orderly instead of adding more restrictions/regulations on top of the chaos.

The “Transfer Portal” is a necessary evil.  It completely changes the college football environment, and not all the changes are for the better.  Nonetheless, the NCAA is powerless to close the portal and go back to its previous hyper-restrictive ways.  The way it was working was a mess and the powers-that-be have tried to make it better.  Obviously, we will have to wait to see if it works as intended, but there is a glimmer of hope.

Instead of having the Transfer Portal open and operating almost universally, the NCAA will allow a single  transfer time for college football players.  The original idea was to have a 10-day open portal between January 2^nd and January 11^th; that would establish the universe of players available for transfer and signings could proceed from there.  Critics said that it was too short a period of time and that it would disadvantage players who were on teams in the CFP where those current teams might have a game or games after the January 11^th deadline.

Twenty years ago – – maybe even ten years ago – – the NCAA would have told the critics to quit their whining and follow the rules.  But the kinder and gentler – – and seemingly smarter – – NCAA of 2025 decided to keep the single portal period concept and adapt to the criticisms.  The latest Transfer Portal rules are:

• January 2^nd to January 16^th:  There is an extra five days of open portal allowing athletes more time to make their decision(s) about transferring or staying put.  Five days may not sound like much at first, but it represents about a 50% increase in decision making time for athletes.
• Special portal opening for players on CFP teams:  If a player is on a team that has a CFP game scheduled for January 12^th or later and that player wants to transfer for the next season, there will be a 5-day open portal period for such players starting the day after their final CFP game.

The modification has a hurdle to cross; it needs the approval of the “Division 1 Administrative Committee” which next meets in mid-October.  Let us hope that the members of that committee have shaken off the scales from their eyes and approve of something as simple as this.

Moving on …  The MLB regular season is over, and the playoffs are set.  So, let me do a small postmortem on my season predictions from back in March.

• AL East:  I took the Red Sox to win the division; they finished third but made the playoffs.  I had the Orioles finishing second and said the Blue Jays would not “contend for long”.  Grade that set of prognostications as an F.
• AL Central:  I had it as Tigers, Twins, Guardians; it finished as Guardians, Tigers, Royals.  I had the White Sox finishing last – – big deal.  Grade these predictions as another F.
• AL West:  I had this one as the Rangers, Mariners, Astros.  It wound up Mariners, Astros, Rangers.  Grade that one as C.
• NL East:  I had this as Phillies/Braves.  Indeed, the Phillies won the division handily, but the Braves suffered a ton of injuries and limped home fourth.  I thought the Nationals would finish ahead of the Marlins, but they finished 13 games behind the Marlins.  Grade this one as a D.
• NL Central:  I had the Cubs eking out the division title here over the Brewers; it finished in the reverse order.  Grade this one as a C.
• NL West:  I had the Dodgers winning the division and the Rockies finishing last.  That was perfect; the rest of the division prediction was far less than perfect.  Grade this one as a C.

That does not yield much of a Grade Point Average, but at least I avoided a “Blutarsky” – – zero-point-zero-zero.

I also suggested 5 win total bets for the regular season:

1. Red Sox OVER 86.5 wins.     Winner!
2. Yankees UNDER 90 wins.      Loser!
3. Mariners OVER 84.5 wins.     Winner!
4. Cubs OVER 85.5 wins.           Winner!
5. Rangers OVER 85.5 wins.     Loser!

At least those predictions showed a “profit” …

Finally, these words from Henry Ford:

“We don’t want tradition. We want to live in the present and the only history that is worth a tinker’s dam is the history we make today.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Sgt Joe Friday sought, “Just the facts, Ma’am”.  Here on Football Friday, we seek the facts – – and some opinions too.  So, let me begin with the facts as they apply to last week’s “wagering” entries:

• Spreads & Totals:     0-3-0    Disgraceful
• Season To Date:        3-7-0    Unacceptable

And …

• Money Line Parlays: 2-1       Profit = $107
• Season to Date:         5-4       Profit = $184

            The Linfield University Wildcats evened their season record at 1-1 last week with a 28-13 home victory over the Chapman Panthers.  That concludes Linfield’s out of conference schedule for 2025; from here on out, they will be playing Northwest Conference opponents.  The Wildcats have this weekend off; they will return to action on October 4^th when they hit the road to Newberg, OR – – all of about 20 miles away – – for a game against George Fox University.

My “sleeper team” for 2025 – – the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – – stretched their record to 4-0 for the 2025 season with a 45-24 win over out-of-conference opponent, Temple.  While I am pleased to report that season record here, I am not positively disposed to speak about yielding 24 points to Temple.  That was not a great showing; my “sleeper team” may have been ”nodding off” during that game …

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Oklahoma State fired Mike Gundy as its head football coach this week.  The 2025 season would have been his 21^st year in that job.  In announcing the decision, here is what the university President had to say:

“This is a decision about what’s best for our football program, our student-athletes and Oklahoma State University and it reflects our unwavering commitment to championship-level football and competing for national success.”

When Gundy took the job in 2005, Oklahoma State was hardly competing for national success; the Cowboys had been mired in the middle of the Big-12 standings for 10 years prior to his taking over.  By 2010, Oklahoma St. had won the Big-12 title and the Cowboys enjoyed plenty of success from 2010 through 2023.  From 2006 (Gundy’s second year on the job) through 2023, Oklahoma St. had 18 straight winning seasons and either won the Big-12 or played in the Big-12 Championship game four times.  Mike Gundy’s teams at Oklahoma St. compiled a 170-90 record (Winning percentage = .654).  No other coach in Cowboys’ history has ever won more than 70 games at the school.

Last year, the preseason polling of Big-12 coaches pegged the Cowboys as the favorites to win the conference.  The year started auspiciously with three out of conference victories – – and then came the tsunami.  Oklahoma St. lost every one of its nine conference games including a season-ending debacle losing to Colorado 52-0.  Gundy took a pay cut and a restructured contract over the offseason to remain on the job; according to reports, his buyout for this year was set at $15M.

The 2025 season had not begun well.  After beating Tennessee-Martin by 20 points in the opening game here are the next two results:

• Oregon 69       Ok. St. 3
• Tulsa 19          Ok St. 12

Those embarrassing losses are magnified by what has happened to Tennessee-Martin since losing by 20 points to Oklahoma St.:

• Lost to UTEP by 25 points
• Lost to S. Illinois by 27 points
• Lost to Montana St. by 32 points

Here are some comments about that loss to Tulsa last week:

Tulsa 19  Ok St. 12:  Tulsa ran for 205 yards in the game and amassed 424 yards of Total Offense.  Adding to that misery, 146 yards of rushing offense came from a running back who used to be at Ok. St. and who transferred out.  Tulsa was paid to come in to take a loss for the Cowboys at home; reports say Tulsa collected $300K for that visit.  The last time Tulsa beat Oklahoma St, was in 1998 and the last time Tulsa won in Stillwater, OK was in November 1951.  Oh, by the way, Tulsa already has a loss on its record to New Mexico St. – – never a positive entry on a résumé.  This was an embarrassing loss at best for Oklahoma State.

Mike Gundy did some impressive work in Stillwater OK at Oklahoma St – – and then all of a sudden, his program went into freefall.  Lots of people attribute that change of fortune to Gundy’s inability to adapt to the “NIL Era”; maybe that is the case.  However, I am not so sure that the Oklahoma St. job is a plum …

Moreover, changing coaches does not always produce positive results, Sure, Curt Cignetti has been a godsend for Indiana football fans, but when I look at how new coaches are doing this year, it’s a mixed bag at best;

• Scott Abell – Rice:  The Owls are 3-1 so far in 2025.
• Bill Belichick – UNC:  It’s not working …
• Scott Frost – UCF:  The team is 3-0 and beat UNC last week.
• Joe Harasmyiak – UMass:  Team is 0-3 and one loss was to a Division 1-AA team.
• Bronco Mendenhall – Utah St.:  Aggies are 3-1 and the loss was to Texas A&M.
• Mike Uremovich – Ball St.:  The Cardinals are winless at 0-4.

It is way too early to pretend to know the teams that deserve to be in the CFP in December/January.  Likewise, it is too early to know who the worst teams in the country might be at the end of the season but there is one interesting thing to note.  CBSSports.com ranks all 136 Division 1-A football teams.  As of this week, the bottom four according to CBSSports.com are:

• Ball St.
• Akron
• UMass
• Kent St.

Those four teams are all in the MAC.  Oh joy …!

Here are some comments on a few of last week’s games.

Texas Tech 34  Utah 10:  These teams came in ranked #16 and #17 in the country; both were undefeated.  The 24-point differential here is a bit surprising.  The Red Raiders scored three touchdowns in the final 8 minutes of action to make what had been a close game for 52 minutes look like a blowout in the end.  Tech was 9 of 17 on third down conversions and Tech won the turnover battle 4-2.

North Texas 45  Army 38 (OT):  North Texas is 4-0.  Army is 1-2 and both losses have been in OT.  Army lost the season opener to Tarleton St. in OT.

Memphis 32  Arkansas 31:  This was an upset; Memphis is now 4-0.  The first three wins were over Chattanooga, Georgia St. and Troy; Arkansas is usually a big step up from that level of competition.

UCF 34  UNC 9:  Two coaches are looking to refurbish their images here.  Scott Frost did a better job in that regard last week.

Syracuse 34  Clemson 21:  Clemson is now 1-3.  The teams combined for 936 yards of offense in the game; Clemson had 503 of those yards gained.  Clemson was only 3 of 13 on third down tries and committed two turnovers to turn the game against it.

Mississippi St. 34  N. Illinois 10:  Miss St. is 4-0 this year.  The other three wins have been over:

• So, Mississippi
• Arizona St.  (ranked in Top 25 at the time)
• Alcorn St.

Not a bad start for a team that was 2-10 last season.

Boise St. 49  Air Force 37:  Total Offense in the game was 1109 yards; both teams put up 500+ yards.  In the second half, Boise had 5 possessions – – 4 TDs and then running out the clock.  Meanwhile, AF had 5 possessions producing 3 TDs a field goal and INT.  There were no second half punts.

Indiana 63  Illinois 10:  Both teams were ranked at the kickoff and both teams were undefeated.  Then the Hoosiers administered an ass-kicking.  Indiana had 579 yards offense …  Illinois 161  yards offense and only 2 yards rushing.    Clearly, Illinois was overrated in the Top 10; but Illinois has a respectable defense and the Hoosiers simply shredded it.   Indiana punted on two of its first three drives and then finished the shellacking by scoring seven consecutive touchdowns.

Miami 26  Florida 7:  The Hurricanes blew it open in the fourth quarter with 13 points.  Florida managed to keep it close for 45 minutes…

Oklahoma 24  Auburn 17:   This was not an artistic victory for the Sooners, but ugly wins count just as much as artistic ones. The Sooners’ defense was stifling registering 10 sacks and 14 tackles-for-loss in the game.   The Sooners now have wins over both Auburn and Michigan this year and that defense just might propel them to the upper echelon of the SEC.

Iowa 38  Rutgers 28:  Iowa scored 38 points in one game?  In the past, that would have been 3 week’s worth of scoring for the Hawkeyes …

 

NCAA Games of Interest This Week:

 

There are five games on the card for this week that should be entertaining, and they could well be important for some late-season rankings and decisions:

1. Oregon at Penn State
2. Alabama at Georgia
3. LSU at Ole Miss
4. Auburn at Texas A&M
5. Ohio State at Washington

I am happy to report that I could only find one outrageous spread of 5 TDs or more this week:

• UMass at Missouri – 44.5

(Fri Nite) Florida St. – 6.5 at UVa (60):  The Seminoles have looked very good so far in 2025 but Virginia seems to have found some offensive players who can move the ball and puncture the goal line more than once in a great while.  This should be a good game.

(Fri Nite) Houston – 13 at Oregon St. (47):  Oregon St. is winless so far in 2025 …

Memphis – 13.5 at Florida Atlantic (63):  Memphis is undefeated so far in 2025 …

Notre Dame – 4 at Arkansas (64):  The Irish have already lost two games this year; they cannot afford another one here.  Arkansas lost at home last week to Memphis.  Both teams need a win here.

Indiana – 8.5 at Iowa (48):  I doubt the Hoosiers will score 60+ on the Iowa defense and I doubt that Iowa will score almost 40 points against the Indiana defense.  The Hoosiers will probably need to break a sweat for the first time this year in this game.  Iowa is at home, and they are getting more than a TD-worth of points and they have a solid defense; that is a signal to me to pick the Hawkeyes plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Georgia Tech – 14 at Wake Forest (52):  My “sleeper team” is looking to go 5-0 for the season …

New Mexico St. at New Mexico – 13.5 (54.5):  Usually this is a game between two miserable teams, but both have begun 2025 surprisingly well.

• New Mexico is 2-1 with a 35-0 win over UCLA and the loss was to Michigan
• New Mexico St. is also 2-1 with the loss coming against Texas A&M

Rice at Navy – 14 (45):   Rice is 3-1 with the loss coming at the hands of Houston – – not much of a surprise.  Navy is 3-0 in 2025.  This is an AAC game that could be important down the road.

Tennessee – 7.5 at Mississippi St (64):  The Vols already have a conference loss; they do not need another one here.  Mississippi St. is undefeated in 2025, but this is their first SEC contest.

Baylor – 20 at Oklahoma St (58):  Welcome to the Interim/New coaching regime in Stillwater …

LSU at Ole Miss – 2 (55):  Both teams are 4-0 in 2025.  This is a big game for both sides.

USC – 5.5 at Illinois (60:  I wonder how much of a hangover the Illini will have after the epic beatdown they took last week at the hands of Indiana (see above).  USC is not the national powerhouse it used to be, but I think they can go on the road and handle a wobbling Illinois team that was clearly overrated last week; I’ll take the Trojans on the road and lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Auburn at Texas A&M – 6 (52):  Auburn is 3-1, but the loss was a conference loss to Oklahoma last week (see above).  The Aggies are undefeated so far, but this is their first SEC game.  This too is a big game for both sides.

Oregon at Penn St. – 3 (52):  This is my College Game of the Week.  The Ducks are 4-0; the Nittany Lions are 3-0.  The Ducks are ranked fifth in the nation; the Lions are ranked second in the nation.

Alabama at Georgia – 3 (52):  This was my runner-up for College Game of the Week.  Neither team has had a conference loss so far in 2025 – – but one of them will come Sunday morning.  I had difficulty deciding how to pick this game, but I finally decided to take the game to go OVER 52; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Ohio St. – 8 at Washington (52):  Both teams are 3-0 in 2025.  Neither has played a conference game so far.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

            I know is it still September and I know there is still a whole lot of NFL football to be played.  But as I was ruminating on last week’s results, the first thing that hit me was that “The Big Apple” teams for this year may just turn out to be “The Big Rotten Apples”.  But before I decided to dump on the Giants and the Jets, I looked at the standings and recognized that there are other teams that remain winless at this point who are in similar dire straits; call them the Sad Sack Six.  Let me take them alphabetically:

• Dolphins:  The Dolphins are 0-3, and I believe that the next month will make or break the season for the team.  Here are the next four games on the schedule:
  • • Vs Jets
    • At Panthers
    • Vs Chargers
    • At Browns
• The Dolphins need to win 3 of those 4 games lest their season become a steaming hot mess by Halloween.  The defense has been bad thus far; the Dolphins have given up more points (97) in the first three games than any other team in the NFL.  The narrative here is that coach Mike McDaniel has either “lost the locker room” or “is in the process of losing the locker room”.  The best way to avoid those sorts of situations is to stop losing games on the field and to put some marks in the win column.  We shall see …
• Giants:  Yes, they marched up and down the field on the Cowboys even though they lost, but the offense has been horrid in the other two games.  The Giants’ front seven on defense is very good which is an indictment on the secondary because the DBs are getting beaten even with a solid run defense and a good pass rush.  The “problem” here is more than switching in Jaxson Dart for Russell Wilson.  The folks who construct the roster have been AWOL recently:
  • • They let Saquon Barkley walk for no compensation and all he did was to post a 2000+ yard season rushing leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl win.
    • They paid Daniel Jones “starting QB money” only to release him so he could sign on with the Colts where he has led the team to a 3-0 start.
    • They have failed to assemble an OL that can be labeled as “marginally competent”.
• The Giants are 0-3 now; their BYE Week is in the week of December 7^th; their record at that point could be as bad as 3-10.
• Jets:   The Jets’ offense is generally overmatched.  Breece Hall is a good – not great – running back and Garrett Wilson is a good – not great – wideout.  That’s about it; maybe some day Justin Fields will become a good – not great – QB but that is in the future if it is to be at all.  The Jets’ defense is the better unit, and it is no prize.  In their three losses, the Jets have given up an average of 31 points per game to the likes of the Steelers, Bills and Bucs.  What could make people think this team is better than reality is that it plays in the AFC East where even a mediocre team can finish second in the standings.
• Saints:  The roster is old and overpaid.  Other teams simply have more talent.  Can the Saints’ braintrust find a few bargain basement roster add-ons to salvage some wins this year?  I doubt it; but hope springs eternal …  Kellen Moore is in his first head coaching gig in the NFL, so he probably makes a lower tier salary and has a deal of 4 or 5 years in length (specifics of his contract have not been revealed).  Here is my advice to Kellen Moore:
  • • Through no fault of your own, you will probably be fired before the contract is up.  They will have to pay you a total of at least $20M for your trouble.  Invest it wisely…
• Texans:  Sorry, but the biggest problem here seems patently obvious to me.  The Texans OL is as bad this year as it was last year, but the excellent defensive unit has not been able to bail out the offense so far in 2025.  Look, Nick Chubb is a solid running back – – when the OL opens holes for him.  CJ Stroud is a competent QB – when he is not running for his life or staring up at the sky with two or three defenders laying on top of him.  Nico Collins is a top shelf WR – who can only catch the ball when CJ Stroud is upright and able to throw it.  Overarching all of that is the fact that the Texans OL is overwhelmed on far too high a percentage of the team’s offensive snaps.  The Texans are 0-3 and are looking around in the usually soft AFC South only to find the Colts at 3-0; this is a bad omen …
• Titans:  The good news here is that no one expected this team to be any good in 2025, so the fan disappointment is tempered to some extent.  Unfortunately, that is all the good news I can conjure up here.  The Titans are undermanned; if they don’t find ways to protect Cam Ward better, they are going to lose him to injury the same way they did with Will Levis.  Yes, the schedule has been tough for the team opening the season against the Broncos, Rams and Colts but the eyeball test says that the Titans are nowhere near those teams in competency measures.  Brian Callahan is in his second year as the head coach there and his record is 3-17 …

Here are some comments on last week’s games; there were a few shockers in the mix:

Lions 38  Ravens 30:  Fears that the Lions were faltering without their two coordinators from last year may have been overblown.  The Lions had 426 yards of Total Offense and 224 yards rushing averaging 6.2 yards per carry.  Or … is the Ravens’ defense not very good?

Panthers 30  Falcons 0:  Here is the essence of my thinking on this game:

• WTF?
• The Falcons outgained the Panthers by more than 100 yards and lost by 30 points?
• The Falcons averaged 5.0 yards per play, and the Panthers averaged only 4 yards per play and the Falcons lost by 30 points?
• Michael Penix Jr. had a bad day with 2 INTs, but did it make sense to pull him with about 10 minutes left in the game?
• He’s supposed to be the “QB of the Future” … no?

The Falcons did not cross the Panthers’ 30-yard-line in the game.  After the game, the Falcons fired receiver coach Ike Hilliard. In three games, the Falcons have failed to complete a TD pass to a wide receiver or a running back.

• WTF?

Jags 17  Texans 10:  The defending AFC South division champions are 0-3 to start the 2025 season.  The Texans have failed to score 20 points in any game so far.  Fielding a tough defense is a great asset – – but you have to score a bit too…

Vikes 48  Bengals 10:  The Vikes played their backup QB – – Carson Wentz – – in this game.  The Bengals Total Offense was 171 yards, and they too started a backup QB – – Jake Browning.  With Joe Burrow on the shelf for at least several months, Browning is probably “The Guy” in Cincy because the other QBs on the roster or on the practice squad are:

• Sean Clifford
• Brent Rypien
• Mike White

Isiah Rodgers scored two defensive TDs in the first half of the game.  One was a Pick Six and the other was a scoop-and-score.

Colts 41  Titans 20:  The Daniel Jones victory tour rolls on as Giants’ fans seethe.  His stat line was very efficient in this game:

• 18 of 25 for 228 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs.

Jonathan Taylor had an offensive outburst here rushing for 102 yards and 3 TDs on only 17 carries.

Bucs 29  Jets 27:  At the start of the 4^th quarter, the Bucs led 23-6.  The Jets rallied for 3 TDs in the 4^th quarter to take the lead at 27-26 only to give up a field goal with 3 seconds left on the clock to lose the game.  The Jets remain winless; the Bucs remain undefeated.  Now, compare that situation with the next game.

Eagles 33  Rams 26:  The Rams had a commanding 26-7 lead early in the third quarter of this game.  The Eagles rallied for 3 TDs to take a 27-26 lead in the game.  With only seconds remaining on the clock, the Rams had a short field goal try blocked and returned for a meaningless score.  It is almost as if the football gods arranged for this juxtaposition…

Steelers 21  Pats 14:  The Pats outgained the Steelers by 165 yards – – and lost the game.  The Pats committed 5 turnovers – – they lost four fumbles and two of those fumbles came inside the Steelers’ 5-yardline.   That is how you come out on the short end of the stick despite dominating the stat sheet.

Commanders 41  Raiders 24:  The Raiders are not a good football team; their offensive line is – – offensive.  Jayden Daniels did not play in the game and the Commanders still put up 40+ on the board.

Browns 13  Packers 10:  The Browns’ defense is elite.  Nevertheless, this is a shocking outcome.  Two weeks ago, the Packers pushed the Commanders’ defense around; here the Packers amassed the puny total of 230 yards on offense for the day – – and they lost.

The Packers were called for 14 penalties in the game and that was certainly not helpful.

• The Packers had a 10-point lead with four minutes to play against one of the worst teams in football … and lost.
• Jordan Love threw a terrible interception late in the game and then the Packers had a game-winning field goal try blocked.
• The Packers are too good a team to lose a game to the Browns.  The Packers are too good a team to hold a 10-0 lead with 4 minutes left in the game only to lose the game in OT.

Chargers 23  Broncos 20:  The Chargers outgained the Broncos by over 100 yards in this game – – and needed a field goal with 3 seconds left in the game to eke out a win.  The Chargers now have a two-game lead over both the Chiefs and the Broncos.

Seahawks 44  Saints 13:  The stat sheet would have you believe this was a close game; it was not.  The score at halftime was 38-6.

Niners 16  Cards 15:  Here is another game where a field goal at the end was definitive.  Niners trailed 15-13 with 4 seconds to play and hit a 35-yard field goal to win the game.  Mac Jones was impressive stepping in for an injured Brock Purdy; here is Jones’ stat line;

• 27 of 41 for 284 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT

Bears 31  Cowboys 14:  Caleb Williams threw 4 TDs and had four completions of at least 30 yards, including a 65-yard touchdown to rookie WR, Luther Burden III, on a flea flicker.  What was the bigger surprise?

• Bears scoring 31 points or
• Bears holding the Cowboys scoreless in the second half?

The Cowboys’ defense is bad.  As noted elsewhere, the Raiders offense and offensive line are also bad.  Those two teams will meet on MNF Nov 17^th.  That game could be described as the easily moved object facing off against the gentle breeze.  Circle the date on your calendar …

Chiefs 22  Giants 9:  The Giants’ front 7 on defense is very good.  I have now said just about everything I can think of to say about the Giants that is positive.

Bills 31  Dolphins 21:  Josh Allen was not Superman in this game; he was more like an efficiency expert at the QB position:

• 22 of 28 for 213 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs
• Oh, and he ran 4 times for 25  yards too …

 

NFL Games This Week:

 

This week starts the “International Games” for the NFL 2025 regular season.  The Steelers and Vikes play in Dublin, Ireland on Sunday such that the game starts at 0930.  The game will be played in Croke Park which is about 5 miles from where The FOG and his parents reside.

Here is an “exclusive report” from the parents of The FOG:

“As the Steelers arrived at Terminal 2 of Dublin International Airport, they were greeted with Irish Dancers and an outrageous number of black and gold balloons.”

Back to you in Curmudgeon Central …

One observation as I looked through the odds for this week …  The Total Line on some games varies significantly from sportsbook to sportsbook.  For some reason it seems that the range of Total Lines is bigger than usual – – and I have no explanation as to what might be causing that.

(Sun Morning) Vikes – 2.5 vs Steelers (41) Game is in Dublin:  The spread for this game opened with the Steelers as a 1-point favorite.  Maybe the bettors who follow trends have latched onto this one:

• Vikes are 4-0 in International Games

I think the game boils down to something very simple.  The Vikes’ defense should be able to control the Steelers offense to the point that 25 points by the Vikes’ offense can win the game.  For the second week in a row, Carson Wentz will start for the Vikes.  Kevin O’Connell’s reputation is that he can take QBs thought to be “retreads at best” and make them productive.  Can he do that again with Carson Wentz?  Can Wentz and Company score 25 points here?

Eagles – 3.5 at Bucs (44):  This is the Game of the Week.  Both teams are undefeated; both teams were playoff teams last season.  The Eagles do not play well in Tampa; there must be something about the latitude and longitude of the stadium there that they don’t resonate with.  But the Bucs are down two starting offensive linemen, and Mike Evans will not play with a hamstring injury.  Given the propensity for both teams to pull out game late on the clock, this one should go down to the final two minutes.

Saints at Bills – 15 (48):  One sportsbook has the Total Line at 48.5 and another has it all the way down to 46 points.  Once in a while, that sort of difference appears momentarily early in the week, but not on Fridays.  As noted above, this is a weird week for Total Lines.  As far as the game is concerned, a Saints’ win would be an even bigger shock than the Packers’ loss to the Browns last week.

Panthers at Pats – 5 (42.5):  Here is another strange set of Total Line listings; the range I found this morning was from 40.5 to 43 points.  And those lines are down from an opening of 45.5 points.  Clearly, the oddsmakers do not expect another Panthers’ domination this week.  Surely, the Pats will not turn the ball over 5 times again this week…

Commanders – 1 at Falcons (44):  The Total Line can be found just about anywhere between 43 and 45.5 points this morning.  This game is a pile of QB Question Marks:

• Can Jayden Daniels play this week?
• Can Marcus Mariota string together two straight strong performances?
• Can Michael Penix, Jr. rebound from two consecutive stinkers?
• Can the Falcons really want to try to send Kirk Cousins to the rescue?

Browns at Lions – 10 (44):  The Lions looked great beating the Ravens on Monday night, but I think the Browns’ defense is too good to be pushed around for more than 400 yards and 38 points.  At the same time, I doubt the Browns’ offense can do what the Ravens did on Monday and score 30 points on the Lions’ defense.

Titans at Texans – 7.5 (38.5):  This could have been the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Both teams are winless; both teams are in the AFC South, meaning that one of them will suffer their second division loss already in the 2025 season.

Chargers – 6 at Giants (42):  The Total Lines here vary this morning from 41.5 points to 43.5 points – – down from 45.5 points earlier this week.  I think Jaxson Dart gets a Baptism of Fire this week from the blitzing Chargers’ defense.  Normally in what I think will be a low-scoring game, I like to take points, but I am going to take a different tack here.  I like the Chargers to win and cover even about 3,000 miles from home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Jags at Niners – 3 (47):  Usually when a team is like a M*A*S*H unit, they do not enter a game undefeated as is the case with the Niners.

Colts at Rams – 3.5 (50):  I thought about this briefly as the Game of the Week but I think the main angle for this game comes down to how the Rams react/recover from the gut punch last-second loss to the Eagles last week.  Another consideration is that the Rams – – playing to their pedigree – are significantly better than two of the three teams the Colts dominated (Dolphins and Titans) to get to a 3-0 record.

Bears at Raiders – 1 (48):  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  This is an interconference game featuring two teams that hope by the end of the season to be considered “mediocre”.

Ravens – 2.5 at Chiefs (48):  This was my runner-up for the Game of the Week because both teams are playoff aspirants that opened the season with 1-2 records.  Neither team has looked much like previous iterations of those squads so far in 2025.

• The Chiefs offense is anemic; it used to be fearsome.
• The Ravens defense looks ordinary; defense used to be their calling card.

Here are some trends related to this game if that floats your boat:

• Patrick Mahomes is 12-3-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career.
• Patrick Mahomes is 5-1 straight up against Lamar Jackson

(Sun Nite) Packers – 6.5 at Cowboys (47):  It’s the Micah Parsons/Jerry Jones reunion.  Hi-ho!  Much more important is the questionable status of CeeDee Lamb who suffered a high ankle sprain in last week’s loss to the Bears.  When the Cowboys traded Parsons, they did severe damage to their ability to rush the passer.  That is not a good thing from any perspective but when the DBs on the squad also lack the ability to cover a mattress with a blanket, the result is a defense that stops no one.  If the Packers come out angry and stomp on the gas pedal all night long, this could be embarrassing on national TV.  Except, I’m not sure anything could embarrass Jerry Jones…  Give me the Packers here on a rebound game to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(MNF 7:15 ET) Jets at Dolphins – 3 (45.5):  The Total Line here can be found at all stops between 44.5 and 46.5 this morning.  The reason this is not the Dog-Breath Game of the Week is that it is a division game even though both teams are winless.  The Dolphins have already lost two division games; the Jets have only lost one.

(MNF 8:15 ET) Bengals at Broncos – 7.5 (44):  The Broncos’ defense is very good; if they study last week’s Bengals’ debacle against the Vikes, this game might get out of hand early.

So let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:

1. USC – 5.5 over Illinois
2. Iowa +8.5 against Indiana
3. Alabama/Georgia OVER 52
4. Packers – 6.5 over Cowboys
5. Chargers – 6 over Giants

And just for fun, here are three Money Line Parlays:

• Florida St. @ minus 240
• USC @ minus-240                 $100 wager to win $100.

And …

• Bucs @ +165
• Broncos @ Minus 400          $100 wager to win $231.

And

• Pats @ minus-210
• Rams @ minus-180               $100 wager to win $130.

Finally, when Marv Levy had the Bills in the Super Bowl, he was asked if that game was a “must win”:

“This is not a must win.  World War 2 was a must win.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Sports creates icons.  Most of the icons are for on-field/on-court accomplishments or antics; some icons are in the broadcasting booth some icons are mascots or fans who perform “above and beyond the norm”.  And then, there is Sister Jean.

Sister Jean was an Internet sensation back in the Spring of 2018 when Loyola-Chicago made it to the Final Four in March Madness; Sister Jean was a 98-year-old nun who was the team’s chaplain and mentor to the players and she became as much of a personality in that year as any player on the team that made the run to the Final Four.  [Aside:  Few if any folks thought Loyola-Chicago was a Final Four threat that year; they were seeded 11^th in their bracket.]

The Ramblers have not duplicated the same on-court success since that run in 2018, but Sister Jean continued to be a recognized figure.  If Loyola was playing, she was there to root on her young favorites.  Back in the Spring, Sister Jean was not “in the house” when Loyola was in the NIT raising apprehension for her health.  Yesterday came an announcement that Sister Jean – – now 106 years old – – “retired at the age of 106, ending more than six decades of service to the university and its students.”  The university President said in a statement:

“While Sister Jean is no longer able to be physically present on campus, she remains a beloved friend, trusted adviser and loyal Rambler — cheering for our teams and praying for us all daily.”

Bonne chance, Sister Jean.

Moving on …  Fans of the NY Giants will get their wish this week; Brian Daboll announced that he has decided to start rookie QB, Jaxson Dart against the Chargers this weekend.  Here is what I had to say about Jaxson Dart in my “Pre-Draft Analysis” back on April 21, 2025:

“Jaxson Dart – Ole Miss: “Big, strong and can throw the deep ball very well”.  Frankly, he might be the best pro QB from this year’s crop.  “First round pick.”

Indeed, the Giants got him with the 25^th pick in the first round of the NFL Draft which I consider to be a great value pick for the team given its need at the position.  Moreover, he played well enough in the meaningless Exhibition Games to create what is almost a cult of the fan base around his very existence.  With the Giants record at 0-3, the coach is ready to try anything…

Go back and read what I said in April about Jaxson Dart.  I am NOT a hater; I am not on record with anything that would indicate that I wish for him to fail.  And because I have no reason to want to see him fail, that is exactly why I think that starting him this week is risky business.

• The opponent this weekend will be the undefeated LA Chargers.  The Chargers’ defense has been violent and effective.  They play a more sophisticated brand of defense than the “plain vanilla” sort of defense that Jaxson Dart saw in the Exhibition Games.  The only plus that I see is that this is a home game for the Giants where the fans will be supportive and the Chargers will be adjusting to a 3-hour jet lag situation.
• If the Giants would only wait one week, the next opponent would be the winless Saints.  Yes, that would be a road game; but the opponent is far more likely to be “beatable” and the Giants’ fans want their new hero to be a “winner” and not another “loser”.
• If the idea is to expose Jaxson Dart to a “trial by fire” then wait for two weeks and throw him into a schedule that has him facing the Eagles, the Broncos, the Eagles again and the Niners in the “month” between October 9 and November 2.

Switching gears …  I read a report that the Browns victory over the Packers last week was more lucrative for myriad sportsbooks than it was for the Browns’ roster.  According to the report I read, the Packers attracted the most money in terms of Money Line bets in the history of betting stats; the report said that just over $1.1B was riding on a Packers’ victory – – which never came to pass.  Add to that revenue falling into the laps of the sportsbooks the fact that more than 75% of the money wagered on the game involving the spread had the Packers covering  8 points – – which obviously never happened.

Packers’ fans were distraught at the result; Browns’ fans were over the moon with the result; the sportsbooks breathed a sigh of relief and went to check their bank balances with smiles on their faces.

Finally, think about this advice from Laurence Peter – – “inventor” of the “Peter Principle”:

“If two wrongs don’t make a right, try three.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………