Author: Jack

There is a need for the NFL to modify one of its policies.  It took me a while to understand how the NFL could penalize the Miami Dolphins and the team owner, Stephen Ross, for tampering without punishing someone else.  Here is the source of my problem:

• In order for there to be a “discussion” or a “conversation” that might run afoul of the league’s tampering rules, there must be at least two parties involved.  If what Stephen Ross had done was to say aloud in the shower that he would really like to have Tom Brady on his team with Sean Payton as his coach, I doubt that would count as “tampering”.

If the facts of this case are as have been reported, Ross and one of his associates had rather extensive and repeated contacts with the agents for Sean Payton and Tom Brady between 2019 and 2022.  That is tampering; the Dolphins deserve to lose those draft picks as punishment – a first-round pick in 2023 and a third-round pick in 2024.  However, the agents are equally culpable here.  Even if I grant that they did not know beforehand what the “first discussions” were going to be about, they surely knew the improper nature of those “repeated discussions”.  So, why stop the punishments with the team and the owner here?

You may argue that agents speak with teams all the time and do not necessarily keep their clients abreast of every detail that arises in those exchanges.  You are going to have to do a lot of hypothesizing to get me to believe that nothing about discussions of that sensitivity ever slipped from agent to client over a 2-year period.  So, where is the punishment for Brady and/or Payton?

It took a while to dig up the NFL rule that governs punishment for “tampering”

“If a club is contacted by a player (or his representative) who is under contract to or whose negotiating rights are held by another club, and such player has not been given permission to negotiate with other clubs, or such player is not in a permissible negotiating period under the terms of an operative collective bargaining agreement, then the contacted club is prohibited from:

(i) negotiating with the player or his agent;

(ii) discussing even in general terms the player’s possible employment with the contacted club; or

(iii) discussing the player’s contract or his potential or ongoing contract negotiations with his current club.”

The rule only pertains to the situation where the player or his agent makes the initial overture that leads to tampering.  Since the Dolphins initiated the discussion, the rule here simply does not pertain.  And even if a player, a coach or an agent for one of them did the initial outreach, it is not clear how the rule would be used to levy punishment because in such a circumstance the onus is on the club to comply with the itemized conditions of the rule.  If the team does not do that, then it is the team that runs afoul of this rule.  Got that?

Strange as that outcome may seem, there was no real surprise that the NFL investigation into Brian Flores’ charges that owner Ross offered him $100K per game to lose games so the Dolphins could get a higher draft pick found nothing nefarious.  That had to be the outcome save for “indisputable video evidence” to the contrary because had there been a finding that it did happen, the league would have to have forced a sale of the team to preserve the integrity of the games.  The NFL – and all major pro sports – always trumpet the importance of game integrity, but now that legalized gambling represents a huge new revenue stream for the NFL, that stance is not just a philosophical nicety; that stance is now a core value of the league and a load-bearing member of its foundation.

Switching sports – but staying with rules and policies and punishments – Phil Mickelson and 11 other golfers who have signed on with the LIV Golf Tour have filed suit against the PGA alleging anti-trust violations.  The complexities of the assertions here by both sides make my teeth itch; so, this is one of those situations where I would prefer for both sides to lose.

• Of course, the PGA is a monopoly in the professional golf “industry”; and it uses exclusionary rules and tactics to keep competitors out and it forces players to abide by the rules that it makes.  Any assertion by the PGA to the contrary is bullsh*t.

[Aside:  The PGA assertion of the primacy of its rules extended all the way to the Supreme Court of the US when the PGA asserted that its rule against golfers using a cart had higher standing than the Americans With Disabilities Act.  SCOTUS set them straight on that issue.]

• The LIV golfers were warned that they would be suspended by the PGA if they played in an LIV event.  They made a choice to play; that choice should have consequences because every one of those golfers is an adult.

If you want to take a deeper dive into some of the issues involved, here is a link to a report at ESPN.com that might help.

Next up …  In all the hullabaloo about the Juan Soto trade earlier this week, I neglected to mention that the Orioles traded Trey Mancini to the Astros for 2 prospects.  That deal was clearly under the radar amongst all the player movement at the trade deadline; Mancini is a nice player but if anyone is beating a drum for him to go to the Hall of Fame someday, I have not heard that sound.  But that trade is interesting for a couple of reasons:

1. The Orioles were at .500 when they made the deal and were only 3 games out of the final playoff slot in the AL.  No one has them penciled in as a playoff team or as a serious threat if they manage to get in, but for a team that has lost more than 100 games frequently in recent history, this is a “magical season”.
2. Trey Mancini is a fan favorite and one of the better players on the team.  Oh, and did I mention that he is a cancer survivor too having missed an entire season fighting the malignancy?

In a world of “bad optics” this one holds a special place…

Finally, since today began with punishment meted out and punishment avoided, let me close with this adage:

“Capital punishment really means that those without capital get the punishment.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I think there are a few more points to make about the Padres’ acquisition of Juan Soto and Josh Bell.  Yesterday, I looked at the exchange from the perspective of the Nationals’ team; today I want to look at this from the Padres’ perspective.  Obviously, the Padres know that negotiating with Scott Boras for Soto’s services once Soto reaches free agency after the 2024 season will be “pricey”.  Soto makes $17M this year and will make more than that in each of his next two years which will involve arbitration; so, what is the payroll situation in San Diego?

Thanks here to spotrac.com for this data:

• Counting players on the IL at the moment and counting players who are being paid by the Padres but are not on the team the total payroll for 2022 is $232,628,899.
• The first tier of MLB’s “luxury tax” for this year is $230M.
• If Soto gets only a minimal raise to $20M next year, the Padres will have 6 players making $16M or more apiece with a total salary of $124M in 2023 for those 6 players alone.

From my perspective, it appears that Padres’ owner, Peter Seidler, has decided to go all out for a World Series shot.  What could make this an interesting story is that Seidler is the grandson of Walter O’Malley who is the MLB owner who took the Brooklyn Dodgers to Los Angeles in the 1950s.  The Dodgers have been the “big dog” in southern California for MLB over the last 75 years, but it looks to me as if Seidler has set his sights on taking down the “big dog”.  Those 6 players who will earn $16M or more next year form an excellent core:

1. Starting Pitcher, Blake Snell
2. Starting Pitcher, Yu Darvish
3. Outfielder, Wil Myers
4. Starting Pitcher, Joe Musgrove
5. Outfielder, Juan Soto
6. Third Baseman, Manny Machado

Please note that Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Josh Hader are not on that list.  Their absence is not a lack of comparable talent; their absence is because neither is going to earn $16M next year.  If everyone stays healthy – a caveat that must be added to every team projection into the future – the Padres look to be loaded for 2023.

Tatis suffered a wrist injury this year and has been on the 60-day IL.  Recent reports say he has rehabbed to the point that he can take “live batting practice”.  Can he return this year and play anywhere near his potential?  The big question for the Padres is can he fully recover for 2023 because Tatis is a prodigy similar in stature to Juan Soto.

My sense of the Padres committing to “big spending” with an eye on the NL West crown in 2023 – – it is too late for the Padres to make up 11 games on the Dodgers this year – – points to the bimodal status of MLB franchises.  There are big spending teams and there are small spending teams.  Those clusters often align with the size of the markets for the franchises – – but not always.  See Chicago for example…  And if you look at the projected roster for the Padres in 2023 against the projected roster for the Nationals for 2023, it would take an intervention from the gods of Greek mythology for the Nationals to be competitive with the Padres.

Colin Cowherd often argues that dynasties are good for sports; dynasties give fans someone to root for and someone to hate on.  In either situation, the dynasty brings attention to the team/sport thereby creating interest.  I agree with him to a point; dynasties do serve the purpose that he postulates but if there is never any fluidity to the dynasties and its potential cluster of teams, things can get boring.  I believe that what dynasties bring to sport is challenge; dynasties get themselves to an exalted status in a sport and then rival teams plot to become their equals or even superiors.  It is that ebb and flow that makes dynasties valuable; without that ebb and flow, things can get tiresome.

The Padres appear to be aiming to “take on the Dodgers” in the NL West; if they can make a race of it next year, that would be great.  But the arrival of the Padres on the scene as a potential “big dog” only accentuates the futility that must be part of the fanbase in at least 15 of the MLB cities where the locals have precisely zero chance of playing any games in October save for the spillover regular season games.  Moreover, when it became painfully obvious that the Nationals were going to have to trade Soto this summer or over the next winter, the fanbases in only about a half dozen cities experienced any real excitement; not a single fan in Miami or Oakland even dreamed of Juan Soto coming to their town.

The fact that there is a permanent “underclass” in MLB does not enhance its stature and does not bring attention to the games.  MLB puts on 2,430 regular season games per year; far too many of those games have exactly no bearing on anything that resembles a “chase to a championship”; a series between the Pirates and the Rockies is as meaningful as serenading a corpse.  Oh well, at least the Padres will be interesting to watch now…

Finally, since much of today has been about money and wealth, let me close with these observations:

“Nothing makes a man more intolerable than his consciousness of having enough money for a good lawyer.”  [Anonymous]

And …

“The chief value of money lies in the fact that one lives in a world in which it is overestimated.” [H. L. Mencken]

And …

“Money is not important. But a lot of money is something else.” [George Bernard Shaw]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Vin Scully died yesterday; he was the broadcast voice of the Brooklyn Dodgers – – and then the LA Dodgers – – from 1950 to 2016.  At the start of his career, he was part of a troika of broadcasters hired by the Dodgers for their games; the lead announcer was Red Barber; the two “junior guys” were Scully and Ernie Harwell.  All three men are in Cooperstown.  Scully had a distinctive voice and a distinctive style for broadcasting.  He was equally adept at radio and television which is not often characteristic of play-by-play guys.  When he was at his best – in the 1980s and 1990s –  I believe he was THE best baseball broadcaster ever.

Rest in peace, Vin Scully…

Staying with baseball, yesterday also saw the Washington Nationals trade Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres for 5 prospects and first baseman, Luke Voit.  Oh yeah, the Nats also sent Josh Bell to the Padres in this exchange.  Everyone takes it for granted that Soto will be a star player in MLB for the next 10-15 years and some commentators have already begun to pave his way to the Hall of Fame.  Juan Soto is a prodigy; he arrived in MLB at the ripe young age of 19 and in that rookie season he hit .292.  At age 23, he has already been an All-Star twice.  So, what did the Nats get in exchange?

• SS CJ Abrams:  Overall #3 pick in 2019 MLB Draft; has not been in an MLB game.
• LHP Mackensie Gore:  Overall #6 pick in the 2017 MLB Draft.  Has made 13 starts this year for Padres with a 4.50 ERA.  He recently suffered a sore elbow, but MRI did not reveal damage.
• OF Robert Hassell III:  Overall #8 pick in 2020 MLB Draft; has not yet been in an MLB game.
• RHP Jarlin Susana:  He is 18 years old from the Dominican Republic.  He is now playing at the Rookie Level of minor league baseball.  [Aside:  If he ever makes it to MLB, the broadcasting call for his strikeouts should obviously be, “Oh, Susana!”  Now you know why I was never asked to join Vin Scully in a broadcasting booth…]
• OF James Wood:  Overall #62 pick in 2nd round of 2021 MLB Draft; has not yet been in an MLB game.

It must be pointed out that the MLB Draft is not nearly as predictable as are the NFL and NBA Drafts – – and even those two drafts involve a bit of a crap shoot.  What the Nationals are banking on here is that their scouting reports from 2017-2021 plus the observations of Padres’ scouts over that same period have produced at least a couple of players with star potential.  Moreover, the Nationals must hope that if one of those players becomes a star, that player should also be someone who could be a “face of the franchise” because Juan Soto was precisely that.

This makes two consecutive seasons where the Nationals have given away the store in exchange for prospects.  The team is a full “tear-down/rebuild” mode and that is a bit dangerous in Washington which is a town of front-runners because given the political presence here the fact is that losers leave town.  With the team for sale, I wonder how the prospective buyers will take yesterday’s news and factor it into their price offers for the team.

• Scenario 1:  This allows the new owner to come in and start afresh with a new management team and a new team on the field.  Success will make the new owner a “good guy” in a town that does not have an overabundance of “good guys”.  In addition, it starts the new owner out with a very manageable salary outlay for the first year or so.
• Scenario 2:  The current owners have stripped the franchise of its assets.  What the new owner is buying is a AAA team along with two burdensome contracts for two pitchers – – Strasburg who cannot stay healthy and Corbin who cannot get out of a fourth inning unscathed anymore.  If they wanted to increase the value of the franchise, they should have jettisoned those two guys also.
• Scenario 3:  None of this nonsense matters because the new owner is a really rich guy who wants to buy an MLB team as a toy and as a way of flexing on other rich guys who could own an MLB team but do not.

You make the call – – but I have a definite lean toward Scenario 3 above…

There is an adage:

“It is an ill wind that blows nobody any good.”

Well, jettisoning Soto is surely an ill wind for Nats fans but there is a small glimmer of good that came from it.  Thomas Boswell came out of retirement to write a column in today’s Washington Post about the trade and the franchise.  Boswell has been retired for about a year now but there is little or no rust on his writing skills.  When Boswell speaks on the subject ot baseball, the best thing to do is to listen and learn.  Do yourself a favor and follow this link to read his perspective today.

Finally, let me close today with a baseball observation by Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“San Francisco rookie righty Sean Hjelle, who made his major league debut May 6, stands 6 feet 11.

“Well, they are the Giants.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Yesterday’s rant had not been posted more than an hour when I got a call from an old friend who has been reading these rants ever since they appeared on the Internet.  He said that I was obviously getting old and that “you lost your fastball.”  His explanation was that in recalling Bill Russell’s amazing legacy of winning championships, I missed the opportunity to cite a remark made by one of Russell’s teammates, Tommy Heinsohn, about Russell’s legacy.

I admitted my error; I should have immediately put that comment in yesterday’s piece as a tribute to Bill Russell.  So, here it is today – – a day late.  This comes from an article in Sports Illustrated more than 20 years ago:

 “Look, all I know is, the guy won two NCAA championships, 50-some college games in a row, the 1956 Olympics, then he came to Boston and won 11 championships in 13 years, and they named a [bleeping] tunnel after Ted Williams.”

One more time, rest in peace, Bill Russell…

Having had some time to think about the 6-game suspension handed down to Deshaun Watson by the NFL arbiter, I think that she did what a judge is supposed to do in rendering a decision.  That makes sense because the arbiter here is a retired Federal judge; this sort of thing is what she did for a living.  The first part of the process was to decide based on a preponderance of evidence – not a decision beyond a reasonable doubt – about the veracity of the claims against Watson.  Clearly, she decided that Watson had indeed acted “inappropriately” with at least some of the women who had made these allegations.  If she had believed Watson in his claim that he never did anything wrong, there would have been no punishment of any kind.

After coming to that conclusion, she did judge-like reasoning.  She looked to precedent regarding how other NFL players in similar – not identical – situations had been punished.  In this case, Watson was investigated by the District Attorney in Houston and no charges were brought against him.  Therefore, the arbiter in this case looked for similar cases involving NFL players alleged to have assaulted women but who were never convicted of such a thing.

If I am correct in reconstructing the thought process here, then these are the precedent cases that are relevant.  The Ray Rice incident is irrelevant because there have been changes in the negotiated Personal Conduct Policy subsequent to that matter.  I will not pretend to have done exhaustive research here, but these are precedent cases I would look to were I the arbiter here:

• Ezekiel  Elliott – – alleged assault and domestic violence.  Suspended 6 games
• Darius Guice – – alleged assault and battery.  Suspended 6 games
• Greg Hardy – – alleged assault and domestic violence.  Suspended 4 games
• Jarran Reed – – alleged assault.  Suspended 6 games
• Jameis Winston – – alleged sexual assault.  Suspended 3 games.

The precedents here indicate to me that the arbiter thought it was appropriate to give Watson “the max” based on history.  One can argue that this case was “worse” than some of those others because it involved two dozen different victims and/or one can argue that the arbiter should have used this case to set a new standard for players accused of “crimes against women”.  However, the decision here looks to me to be on point.

I suggested yesterday that only the NFL itself was in a reasonable position to appeal this decision.  Having thought about it overnight, I believe the NFL is best served by letting this matter recede into memory; no one derives benefit from keeping this matter alive – – assuming of course that there are no new accusers who reopen the criminal investigation(s) leading to…  There is one “bad optic for the league” involved here but it should not be bad enough to keep this story at or near the top of any sports page:

• Deshaun Watson will return to the field in Game 7 of the 2022 season.  That will be on October 23.  That is amid the NFL’s “appeal to women month” where players wear all sorts of pink “accessories” to raise awareness of breast cancer.  [Aside:  Are there actually people who are not yet aware of breast cancer?]
• Someone needs to take Deshaun Watson aside and tell him not to wear pink shoes for that game – – or for the Browns’ next game on October 31.
• If he decides to “wear pink” for those games, that decision could easily find itself in the Hall of Fame of Bad Decisions.

Moving on …  The “Kyler Murray Contract Saga” took an interesting turn  yesterday.  Recall that Murray signed a huge contract that included a “mandatory study clause” which the team had to rescind from the contract after all the negative press that it generated.  That seemed to be a tempest in a teapot that would dissipate itself once Murray reported to training camp and the news focus would involve the normal minutiae of a training camp.  Then yesterday the announcement came that Murray tested positive for COVID and that he would miss the next 5 days of training camp.

Here is the good news:

• He now has plenty of time to do his “individual study” regimen even though it is no longer a contractual requirement.

Finally, apropos of nothing, let me close today with this definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Jazzed:  A position on the excitement meter somewhere between ‘would rather be having oral surgery’ and ‘I just got Dish Network.’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Bill Russell died over the weekend.  Russell played – and was a player coach – with the Boston Celtics from 1956 to 1969.  He and his teammates won 11 NBA Championships in that time span.  When folks “debate” about which of the great players was greater, there is one of Russell’s stats that is unassailable:

• In his career, he played in 21 games where it was “win-or-go-home”.  These games were in the NCAA Tournament, the Olympics and in Game 7 of an NBA playoff series.  In those 21 games, Russell’s team record was 21-0.

In addition, Bill Russell was an advocate for civil rights at a time when very few athletes of any minority group took a public position on such issues.  Bill Russell was a great basketball player and a great person.

Rest in peace, Bill Russell.

Since I mentioned the Olympics above, let me transition to a report that France’s preparation for the 2024 Summer Games could wind up costing the country €10B.  Inflation is a driver here and that estimate could turn out to be very conservative if the worst fears about inflation come to pass.  The initial estimate for prep costs was €6.8B; early cost estimates for things such as the Olympics are always understated and even before inflation hit, that estimate was increased to €8.6B.  One of the cost elements is the plan to have 11,000 police officers on the ground in the venues and the housing areas every day and the plan calls for up to 25,000 “security agents” to be available each day in addition to those police officers.

An interesting planning element for the Paris Games is to stage the opening ceremonies on the river Seine instead of in a giant stadium.  Organizers hope to attract as many as 600,000 people to view those Opening Ceremonies.  Boats will transport the athletes from the various countries down the river past the viewers; approximately 10,500 athletes are expected to participate in the Games so there could easily be an interesting “traffic jam” on the river that day.

One other Olympics note today, the 2028 Summer Games will be held in Los Angeles.  Host countries usually propose the addition of a new sport to the Games and seek IOC approval for such new endeavors.  The organizers in LA – with the urging and backing of the NFL to be sure – has proposed flag football as a sport for those Summer Games in 2028.  A ruling from the IOC is expected later this year.

Not that it needs any assistance, but IOC approval here would be a big plus for the NFL.  One of its objectives has been to “grow the sport” outside the US; that is why we have “London Games” and “Mexico City Games” that is why there will be a “Germany Game” later this season.  The inclusion of flag football in the Olympics would sow seeds of potential interest in lots of countries where the NFL would be loathe to schedule any regular season games for lack of interest and/or for lack of economic return.  A positive decision by the IOC on flag football as an Olympic event could be interesting to follow.

The NFL story of the day is that the arbiter hearing the Deshaun Watson disciplinary case has imposed a 6-game suspension for Watson’s alleged off-field improprieties.  This is not necessarily the final decision on the matter; any of the parties may appeal this ruling and if that happens, the final decision will be made by Commissioner Goodell.  The NFLPA has said that it will not appeal the suspension; my sense is that Watson and his legal team would be playing with fire if they were to appeal the decision given that the NFLPA has said it will not; the key element here would seem to be the league itself.  I wonder if enough owners are sufficiently angry with the Browns for giving Watson that huge and fully guaranteed contract that they might push for a league appeal that could lead to a bigger suspension.  Stand by…

Moving along …  If you recall the book and its companion movie, Moneyball, the underlying thesis for team construction is to spend money wisely to overachieve expectations.  No one associated with the Washington Nationals can invoke that sort of “smart spending model” as of this morning.  Consider:

• Fifteen MLB teams – that is half of all the teams – have lower payrolls than do the Washington Nationals.  [Hat Tip to Spotrac.com]
• Right now, the Nationals have the worst record in MLB at 35-68; they are 3.5 games worse than the 29^th team in MLB – – the Oakland A’s.

That is not exactly an efficient outlay of payroll…

Finally, here is an item from Dwight Perry’s column, Sideline Chatter, in the Seattle Times, from yesterday:

“The Mariners have released pitcher Daniel Ponce de Leon.

“So much for the team’s hopes of getting younger.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

When I woke up this morning, I did not have any concrete plan as to what I would write about today.  I had some coffee, chatted with my long-suffering wife about plans and schedules for the day – and the weekend – and sat down to see if anything happened overnight that caught my eye.  Voila!  The Washington Post came through with a headline saying:

• “Cardinals drop Kyler Murray’s homework clause from contract extension”

As everyone here knows, I have never spent a day of my life in law school – – but I do have several friends who are lawyers.  One of them spent his career dealing in contracts involving the Federal government and every time I have asked him about some reported quirk in a sports contract, he is always sure to remind me of the following:

• Every clause, every stipulation and every conditional arrangement specified in any contract of any kind is there for a specific reason that is important to one or both of the parties.

A quick text message to him this morning affirmed that he is certain that the “homework clause” was in the original version of the contract extension for the reason stated above.  So, which party to the original contract might have thought it important to include it in the deal?  Sorry, even a law school dropout can figure that one out.

The reason given for the removal of the clause is that it would become a “distraction” and the only thing a football team needs less than a “distraction” would be an outbreak of explosive diarrhea among all the linemen on a team about 30 minutes before kickoff.  The Cardinals’ brass expressed full confidence in Murray and his work ethic and his study habits and the like – – conveniently ignoring a plausible explanation as to why that clause magically materialized in the original document.  Oh, and you can be certain that no one making any pronouncements on this issue referred to this statement attributed to Kyler Murray just last season:

“ [I am] not one of those guys that’s going to sit there and kill myself watching film. I don’t sit there for 24 hours and break down this team and that team and watch every game because, in my head, I see so much.”

Moreover, there is another aspect of this clause removal that I think needs “fleshing out”.  When the deal was struck and all parties signed the contract leading to the announcement of the deal earlier this week, Murray’s agent had to know the clause was in there.  So:

• Did he fail to tell Murray it was there?  If he told Murray it was there, was Murray cool with it?
• If the agent did not tell Murray about anything other than the finances of the deal, did Murray sign the document without reading it?  If so, did he do that because – like he does not need to study film all the time – he sees so much in his head?

Murray and the Cardinals may think they have avoided any “distractions” with this clause removal, but the obviously saccharine-sweet PR statements related to the clause removal just might come back to haunt some or all the parties.

While on the subject of quarterback signings, there was a report at SI.com that Jimmy Haslem – – owner of the Browns – – did not think that Baker Mayfield was sufficiently mature to make it as an NFL QB and that is the reason the Browns went in full pursuit of Deshaun Watson.  Haslem has denied that report and his denial makes a ton of sense.  Consider:

• Even if you have reason to think that Baker Mayfield is immature and as an owner or a coach you think it is important to go out and get yourself a more mature individual for the team, how is it that you narrow down your focus to someone who has been charged with sexual assault by about two dozen different women over the past couple of years?

Moving on …  The LIV Golf Tour has an event today in Bedminster, NJ at a course owned by former President Donald Trump.  There are enough trigger words in that last sentence to fire up an argument that could last for days, but I want to try to avoid most of them.

• The purse for this LIV event is $25M; if I counted correctly, there are 48 entrants.
• The PGA Tour event this weekend – – Rocket Mortgage Classic – has a purse of $8.4M; if I counted correctly, there are 157 entrants.

The entire science of economics is based on the idea that people as consumers of goods and services make rational choices.  [Aside:  Personally, I think that economics is a sub-set of psychology where folks study human behavior relative to money as opposed to human behavior in general.  But that’s just me…]  Say whatever you want about the LIV Tour but look at the economics above.  Professional golfers are people who have decided to make their living competing in golf tournaments:

• The LIV event offers $521K per entrant
• The PGA event offers $54K per entrant

In case you think I have cherry-picked a single weekend to throw out decidedly different numbers, consider the following data:

• The total purse money for PGA Tour events in 2022 is targeted at $427M.  I have not seen any projection for what the 2023 purse total might be.
• The LIV Tour says it has targeted $4.05B for purse money in 2023.

Remember, these are professional golfers…

Finally, since most of today’s rant related to contracts and money, let me close with this view of money by comedian Steve Martin:

“I love money. I love everything about it. I bought some pretty good stuff. Got me a $300 pair of socks. Got a fur sink. An electric dog polisher. A gasoline powered turtleneck sweater. And, of course, I bought some dumb stuff, too.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

At the core, sports are a meritocracy.  If a player or a team is better than an opponent, that player or team is recognized as such.  Competency can – and has – overcome deeply held beliefs such as racial superiority/bias simply by the demonstration of skills’ competencies.  As with just about any human endeavor, the standing of this meritocracy must endure a few bumps along the road.

In an ideal world ruled by merit, comparable player salaries would line up competence and achievement.  And if you stand back a bit and take a synoptic view, that is most often the case.  However, on a more fine-grained investigation and for moments in time, there are some significant disruptions in that continuum.  Consider:

• As of this morning, the second highest paid player in the NFL will be Kyler Murray.
• Aaron Rodgers will be the highest paid player.

Aaron Rodgers has been around a lot longer than Kyler Murray, so it is natural to expect that he has more achievements than Murray but let’s take a look.  Aaron Rodgers:

• Has been NFL MVP 4 times
• Has been selected to the Pro Bowl 8 times
• Has been named to the All-Pro team 5 times
• Has won a Super Bowl and was the MVP in that Super Bowl Game
• Has a career record of 139-66-1 in games he started at QB

Now let’s look at Kyler Murray:

• Won the Rookie of the Year award
• Made the Pro Bowl 2 times
• Has a career record of 22-23-1 in games he started at QB.

Kyler Murray is a fine young QB; he is probably in the top third of the QBs in the league but is – as of today – not nearly the second best QB in the NFL.  But the Arizona Cardinals are betting on the come because they just gave him a fat contract extension worth $231M over 5 years with $160M of that total value guaranteed.  Murray’s deal is worth $1M more than Deshaun Watson’s deal with the Browns but the entirety of Watson’s contract is guaranteed – – just to give you a sense of comparison there.

Oh, and for the record, I believe that Watson is the better QB here even though Watson is also not the second or third best QB in the NFL at the moment …

A few days after the announcement of this humongous contract with all the smiling faces and the dulcet  tones of Kumbaya wafting through the air, someone found a really strange “clause” in Kyler Murray’s contract.

• Murray is required to spend 4 hours a week in “independent study” every week of the regular season and the post-season (if the Cards are in the post-season) where “independent study” is defined as “studying material provided by the Cardinals to prepare for the upcoming game.”

My guess is that this “Cardinals’ provided material” is better labeled as “The Game Plan” and not as “Poincaré’s Conjecture”.  Now, if that surmise is correct, it is fair to wonder why the Cardinals found it necessary to put it in the deal.  I understand the concept of cognitive dissonance – a condition where one can hold inconsistent thoughts/beliefs in mind simultaneously – but this situation makes me shake my head:

• On one hand, you think enough of Kyler Murray to pay him $231M for his QB services over the next 5 years where “studying the game plan” is an essential element of his QB services.
• And on the other hand, you feel it necessary to make it a contract stipulation that he will put in work on his own studying that game plan outside the supervision and without the oversight of anyone in the organization.
• Really …?

Moving on …  Kyler Murray is involved in a totally different “cycle of life” set of events that have just happened:

• In 2017, Baker Mayfield was picked overall #1 by the Browns.  Josh Rosen was picked overall #10 by the Cardinals.
• In 2018, the Cardinals traded Rosen to the Dolphins and picked Kyler Murray overall #1.
• In 2022, the Browns traded Mayfield away and just signed Rosen to be one of their backup QBs in case Deshaun Watson is unavailable.
• Wheels within wheels…

`           Finally, staying with the idea of NFL signings, I read where the Packers signed Sal Cannella – – a tight end out of Auburn and a player for the USFL’s New Orleans Breakers.

Of course, you probably know about his more famous cousin, Sal Monella…

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Last week I wrote about the MLB All-Star Game and noted that in the past it had drawn as many as 16 million viewers.  I said then that the 2022 All-Star Game:

“… will certainly not attract an audience of half that size and may struggle to have an audience a third of that size.”

Well, I was right – – and I was wrong.  The number of viewers this year was indeed less than half of 16 million, but it was comfortably above one-third of 16 million; this year’s audience was reported to be 7.5 million viewers.  That datum made me go looking for regular season attendance figures for MLB to see how those are holding up.  Soon into that process, I realized that neither 2021 nor 2020 could be considered anywhere near “normal years”, so I went back to 2019 to begin looking for ongoing attendance trends.  Spoiler alert:  Things do not look good.

Here are the data on average attendance per game starting in 2015 (because that is as far back as I went) through this point in the 2022 season omitting the COVID-impacted seasons:

• 2015 – – 30,336 fans per game
• 2016 – – 30,132
• 2017 – – 29,923
• 2018 – – 28,660
• 2019 – – 28,204
• 2022 – – 26,226

In math terms, that data plotted on a graph would be described as “monotonically decreasing” meaning that the curve is never flat nor does it ever increase.  But things get worse; if you look at the difference in the decline year over year, the trend is in the wrong direction:

• Difference 2015 – 2016 = negative-204 fans per game
• Difference 2016 – 2017 = negative-209 fans per game
• Difference 2017 – 2018 = negative-1,263 fans per game
• Difference 2018 – 2019 = negative-456 fans per game
• Difference 2019 – 2022 = negative-1,978 fans per game.

Compared to 2015, average game attendance for MLB games is down 4,410 fans per game or 13.5%.  Combine those data with the declining TV ratings for things like the All-Star Game and for the World Series – – last year’s rating were abysmal – – and I have to wonder why the price to buy an MLB franchise continues to go up.

But “up” is where they are going; the Nats are for sale and back in March of this year, Forbes estimated the team value at $2B.  Recent history of franchise purchases in various sports says that new buyers pay a premium over the Forbes estimate so let’s just say the team sells for $2.2B.  The current owners paid $450M for the team in 2005; that sale price would represent a gain of $1.75B or a gain of 390%.  The fact that this makes no sense to me is probably part of the reason that I do not have the resources to be a bidder for the Nationals’ franchise in the first place.

Mentioning the Nationals being up for sale reminds me that for Juan Soto to get to LA for the Home Run Derby/All-Star Game, the team refused to charter a plane to take him there so he “had to fly commercial”.  Recall, the timing of the All-Star Game is proximal to the point where Soto turned down the Nationals’ offer of $440M over 15 years.  I don’t know who “leaked” that tidbit, but there is motivation for Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, to have done it.

• The message is sort of like, “See how those low-balling cheapskates treat my client.”
• BTW, I’m surprised that he did not add that Soto had to make his reservations close to take-off time and got stuck in a middle seat.

However, before you take sides here, please recall that Juan Soto is currently making $17.1M for the 2022 MLB season and that he has earned about $11M in his previous contracts.  I will go out on a limb here and suggest that he can afford a first-class ticket.

Before I leave the business of game attendance in the dust, I want to share one bit of the fine structure that I ran across in looking for data and trends.  The Oakland A’s have been looking for a way to get a new stadium for about 10 years now – – maybe 15.  To call the Oakland Coliseum an “inadequate facility” would be high architectural praise.  The City of Oakland has poured money into renovations there in the past and is left with the stadium equivalent of the Black Hole of Calcutta; unsurprisingly, they have not fallen all over themselves to throw good money after bad.

However, the attendance figures for the A’s – certainly reflecting the team’s lack of success and lack of retaining good players in addition to the skeezy nature of the park – are scary indeed.

• A’s average attendance in 2015 = 21,829
• A’s average attendance in 2019 = 20,626
• A’s average attendance in 2022 = 8,410

Teams would be happy to have an average attendance of 8,410 fans for their Spring Training games – – but this is the regular season attendance we are looking at.

Finally, since today’s rant has had a “gloom and doom” tinge to it, let me close with something that looks on the brighter side.  It is supposedly an African proverb:

“Do not blame God for having created the lion but thank Him for not giving it wings.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

They say that timing is everything in delivering comedy.  Timing is also very important in other aspects of life and sometimes it allows for juxtaposing two stories that would seem not to have anything to do with each other at first.  But then…

About a month ago, I ran across a report that the University of Tennessee Athletic Department had launched an “aggressive” 5-year Plan for Tennessee athletics.  The plan’s label is “Rise Glorious” a phrase that appears in the Tennessee alma mater.  In announcing the launch of this plan, the Athletic Director said that Tennessee can and should be a leader in college athletics on the field and in strategic thinking but that the university has not lived up to those goals recently and this plan will set things right once again.

Supposedly, the student-athletes – – his phrase and not mine – – at Tennessee will be integrally involved in Rise Glorious actions and activities thereby creating the sort of ownership spirit that will create a winning culture for the Vols.  It is not clear to me how that is supposed to happen or how that might help Tennessee win any games, but every long-term strategic plan must have some qualities of mysticism contained therein.

There are specific areas addressed by the Rise Glorious plan and – not surprisingly – on-field performance is one of those areas.  In that area, each Tennessee athletic program will create an “NCAA Championship Plan” for itself and one of the standards will be:

• Tennessee will win a national championship in at least one sport every four years; and each sport will achieve at least one national Top-16 finish every four years.

That is an ambitious goal to be sure and one of the other elements of Rise Glorious – – an “SEC Championship Plan” – – is similarly aspirational:

• “Each sport will win a conference championship at least once every five years; Tennessee Athletics aims to capture five conference championships in one academic year while averaging at least three conference championships per year over the next five years.”

What will it mean to the football program to win a conference championship sometime in the next 5 years?  Well…

• The last SEC championship for Tennessee was in 1997.
• Since 2007, the Vols’ combined football record is 85 – 88.

I think the chances of such a turnaround in the next 5 years for Tennessee football are slim indeed, but I will stipulate that there are elements of Rise Glorious that could point the program in a very positive direction; and I will note that last  year Josh Heupel coached the Vols to a 7-6 record in his first  year in Knoxville.  So, after reading about the announcement and the launching of Rise Glorious I made a note to myself to keep this in mind and check back in a couple of years.

But as I said at the top, timing is everything and maybe the first checkpoint for the achievement of goals in Rise Glorious  comes only about a month into the implementation phase.  I say this because last weekend the NCAA notified Tennessee that it had identified 18 rules infractions committed by previous head football coach Jeremy Pruitt including the following charges:

• Pruitt and some of his assistants hosted prospects and their families during the “recruiting dead period” for unofficial and unrecorded weekend visits where payments in cash and/or in goods were given to prospects and/or their families.
• Pruitt’s wife made cash payments totaling as much as $13,000 to recruits and/or their families.  [Aside:  There is some irony here noting that Pruitt’s wife has previously served as an “NCAA Rules Compliance Officer” at two other universities.]

You get the idea here; the violations are blatant; if only half-true, they are still important violations of the NCAA rules and that can bring the hammer down on the Tennessee football program – – as it seeks to improve its fortunes against the likes of Alabama, Georgia, Florida …  Tennessee is not likely to contest too many of these charges because based on an internal investigation, it fired Coach Pruitt for cause and allowed the previous Athletic Director – – Phillip Fulmer – – to retire from his position.

All I can say here is this:

• Josh Heupel had a difficult task ahead of him to win an SEC Championship in football sometime in the next 5 years.
• Punishment for those sorts of infractions will fall on Heupel’s shoulders even though he was the coach at UCF when they took place.
• Penalties for infractions of this sort usually involve reductions in the number of permissible scholarships and/or limitations on visitations by recruits.
• Forget winning an SEC Championship in the next five years for a moment.  If Coach Heupel can win the SEC East and make it to the SEC Championship Game any time in the next 5 years under the restrictions he is about to endure, he should be Coach of the Decade.

Finally, since everything today has been about the University of Tennessee, let me close with this observation by H. L. Mencken:

“There is, it appears, a conspiracy of scientists afoot.  Their purpose is to break down religion, propagate immorality, and so reduce mankind to the level of brutes.  They are the sworn and sinister agents of Beelzebub, who yearns to conquer the world, and has his eye especially upon Tennessee.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The weather over the weekend here in the DC area was an abomination.  Temperatures were in the upper-90s along with the signature humidity levels that make July and August unpleasant months in these parts.  Having dealt with these sorts of summers for decades, the formula consists of staying indoors as much as possible, drawing the blinds to keep as much sunlight as possible out of the living space and using ceiling fans to keep the air moving.  I and many others around here took a moment over the weekend to pay homage to Willis Carrier…

This is not a time of the year with a plethora of stunning sports attractions on TV and on Saturday the first listing that drew any real interest was a Houston Astros/Seattle Mariners game that started at 4:00PM  [Aside:  The Astros led 2-1 when I tuned out to help prepare dinner and the Astros eventually won that game 3-1.]  That left me with lots of time to let my mind wander and that often leads to flights of fancy and imagination.  Saturday was indeed a day that fell into that category.

Imagine if you will a world where college football evolution continues over the next decade or so to the point where more changes are needed.  The driving force, of course, will be TV rights fees but what the networks will want are more games pitting two very good teams against each other.  The expanded Big-10 and the expanded SEC provide some games of that ilk – – but there are still too many offerings that do not “move the needle” and the folks who are ready to pay out big monies want that needle moved.

I argued last week that one of the reasons that college football was so popular was that its rivalries were for the most part driven by schools that are nearby each other.  So, if the financial situation I alluded to above happened, additional expansion of the two most powerful conferences would just increase the footprint even more than exists today.  How to square this circle…?

No one in the current structure of college football will want to hear this, but I believe there is lots of money to be made with a radical restructuring.  Two key elements of the radical restructuring would be:

1. Some teams in conferences other than the current Big-10 and current-SEC would need to ditch their current affiliation and move to a new conference home.
2. Some teams currently in the Big-10 and the SEC would need to be removed and take up the sport of college football elsewhere.

Right there you have a huge up-front cost to get to where I want to go, and I acknowledge that such an upfront cost might be prohibitive.  But just for giggles, let me assume that the College Football Fairy Godmother shows up and waves her wand and makes all that “athletic department free agency” happen.  At that point, college football programs are like tokens that can be moved about, and I have a plan for that.

In my  new world there will be Two Mega Conferences – – call them Alpha and Beta for now because the names do not matter.  Each Conference will have 20 teams arranged in 4 Divisions of 5 teams each.  The Divisions will emphasize proximity and the Conferences will try to join Divisions whose geography is as close as possible to its conference mates.  So here is the status so far:

• Alpha and Beta will incorporate 40 schools – – and the idea is to have these be the best 40 programs in the country such that there is lots more high quality/high interest programming for those deep-pocketed TV execs to drool over.
• Regionalism and proximity will be emphasized
• The existence of Alpha and Beta which will ONLY feature in conference games – – no more cupcake scheduling – – will make the College Football Playoff an easy decision.

Here is how the scheduling would work:

• Each team will play its 4 Division opponents home and home every year; that accounts for 8 games.
• Each team will play every team in one other Division in its Conference on a year-by-year rotating basis; that accounts for 5 games.
• The CFP would become a “tournament” involving the 8 Division winners in the two Conferences.  The simple system would be to have the four Alpha winners compete to see who the Alpha Champ is and have the Alpha Champ play the Beta Champ for the national title.  Or you could get fancy and seed the 8 teams based on records and not on conference residence and go from there.  Take your pick…

I warned you above that I had all day Saturday until the late afternoon to ponder this gedanken experiment so here is a very rough cut at what the 8 Divisions might look like.  In some cases I have two teams there separated by a slash; that means take your pick…

• Division 1:  Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Miami, NC State
• Division 2:  Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee
• Division 3:  Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Texas, Texas A&M. Baylor/TCU
• Division 4:  Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah
• Division 5:  Clemson, UNC, UVa, South Carolina, Va Tech
• Division 6:  Michigan, Michigan St. Notre Dame, Penn St., Ohio St.
• Division 7:  Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, Wisconsin
• Division 8:  Arkansas, Iowa St., Kansas St., Missouri, Nebraska

I know I have left out some notable schools here; so, before the long knives come out, let me try to explain.  I know that there is no Division in the Great Northwest.  The reason for that is I could not come up with a geographic cluster of 5 teams in that area.  Oregon and Washington would be obvious; after that the pickings get slim if the idea is to keep this to “Top 40 football programs”.  Please note that there is no “Northeastern Division” either because the best team in that part of the world – – after Penn State who fit elsewhere in this scheme – – is Boston College and that is not particularly attractive.  I thought about Boston College, Pitt, Syracuse, WVU and “somebody else” for a while and then dropped it.

The two Arizona schools are not here either; absent also are Pitt, Syracuse, Cincy, Kentucky, WVU and Louisville.  If someone wants to argue that they ought to be included in this fantasy, please do so by suggesting which team should be removed from any of the Divisions.  Oh, and please remember to keep up a semblance of “regionality” in any suggestions.

Finally, apropos of nothing other than the fact that I found this humorous, let me close with a commentary by stand-up comedian, Bill Hicks:

“And on the seventh day, God stepped back and said, ‘This is my creation, perfect in every way … oh, dammit I left all this pot all over the place.  Now they’ll think I want them to smoke it … Now I have to create Republicans.’”

For the record:  I was not smoking pot or any under the influence of any other hallucinogen last Saturday when I took this flight of fancy.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………