Angles On Games…

Even though there will be no Football Friday this week, I had some time to browse around some of the football sites that I normally use to collect information for those sorts of things.  I ran across some interesting – not nearly important – betting trends for some NFL games this weekend.

The Saints host the Cardinals on Sunday:

  • In their last 16 games in October, the Saints have covered the spread in all 16 of them.
  • In their last 21 games in October, the Saints record against the spread is 20-1.
  • It will still be October when the game kicks off on Sunday.

The Steelers host the Dolphins on Monday Night Football this week.  Despite having a losing record for the season and a losing record at home, the Steelers are a 15-point favorite to beat the Dolphins in this game.

  • Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach of the Steelers in 2007, the Steelers have played on Monday Night Football 6 times.  The Steelers record in those games is 6-0.  Good luck to the Dolphins…

The Pats host the Browns this Sunday.  Since 2009, 62 teams from the AFC have come to Foxboro to play a game.

  • In those 62 games, the Patriots’ record straight up is 59-3.
  • In those 62 games, the Patriots’ record against the spread is 39-20-3.

The Vikings host the Skins on Thursday Night Football this week.

  • In their last 56 home games, the Vikes record against the spread is 39-16-1.

Wagering on sporting events is an expanding industry these days; state legislatures seem to be tripping over themselves to enact legislation that will bring some of that action to their states and some of the tax revenue generated by it to their coffers.  The NCAA of course steadfastly opposes such venal behaviors and sees gambling on college sporting events as an exploitation of the student-athletes.  [Aside:  There is a delicate irony in that position, but let’s just ignore that for the moment.]

At least two of the NCAA member schools have banned betting on games involving the school by players, students, faculty and staff at those schools.  St Joseph’s was the first to do so; about two weeks ago, Purdue followed suit.  Purdue’s President, Mitch Daniels said that the new edict intends to “protect student-athletes from people on campus looking for inside information.”

It is hard to argue with that intention.  However, I do have a couple of questions for President Daniels:

  1. A Google search says that the student population at Purdue is 41,573.  How is the university going to enforce this ban on wagering on Purdue games within such a large population?
  2. Wikipedia says that the faculty at Purdue consists of 3,055 people.  How will the university monitor the behaviors of these folks to assure that the new policy is followed?
  3. What is the scope of the new policy?  If Purdue makes the NCAA basketball tournament in the Spring, would a member of the Purdue family violate the policy by filling out a bracket for an online contest where he/she could win money?

Finally, Greg Cote of the Miami Herald reacted to the news that Eliud Kipchoge had broken the 2-hour barrier in a marathon:

“Kenyan superstar runner Eliud Kipchoge broke the 2-hour marathon barrier in 1:59.40.2 Saturday, a once unfathomable feat. I once covered 26.2 miles even quicker, but didn’t get credit because I was in a car.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Baseball Business…

As baseball fans prepare to feast on the World Series that begins tonight, there is another baseball story ongoing in the background.  The MLB owners are looking to reduce the number of minor league baseball teams from 160 to 120 by the end of next season.  The move is purely economic; so, it pays to check out some of the costs involved here.

Other than a few independent minor leagues, all the teams in minor-league baseball are funded by MLB.  Every player who signs a “minor league contract” gets paid by the major league team that negotiated that contract with that player.  When you go to see a minor league game in Altoona, PA, the players there are part of the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system and their salaries and expenses are paid for by the Pirates.  The same goes for the managers and coaches for minor league teams; they are paid by the MLB club that is affiliated with the minor league team in question.

Even acknowledging that minor league salaries – for players, coaches and managers – are very low, eliminating an affiliated minor league team from a major league club will result in a cost savings.  Obviously, reducing costs puts more money in the major league club’s owner’s pocket; so, why hasn’t this contraction happened sooner?

I think there is a tripwire in here that the MLB owners need to avoid.  Right now, there are 160 cities and towns with minor league baseball clubs that are affiliated with major league teams.  If that number is contracted as suggested to 120 cities and towns, that means 40 areas will lose their teams – – and every one of those “losing areas” has a Congressthing.  MLB enjoys an anti-trust exemption based on a Supreme Court decision from almost 100 years ago.  When Curt Flood sued MLB in the 70s, the Supreme Court upheld the previous ruling but said explicitly that Congress could act to change the status quo.

Over the last 50 years or so, the Congress has chosen not to act.  MLB would like to retain that exemption; and so, it pays for them not to have 40 Congressthings get irate calls from constituents about losing the local minor league team.  This is a time for diplomacy and negotiation to be the order of the day; this is not the time for MLB owners to try to “Bigfoot the situation”.

From a fan’s standpoint, I do not see how contraction of minor league affiliations turns out to be a good thing.  Absent a few players who are ready and able to handle the rigors of being a major-league player at age 20 or 21, “prospects” need to be taught how to play the game.  That learning process includes on-field instruction and off-field instruction; the vast majority of players has a significant need for those lessons.  How, reducing the number of “minor league classrooms” will produce more “polished players” is certainly not obvious.

Stay tuned; this story will develop over the next year or so…

Errol Spence is the World Boxing Council and the International Boxing Federation welterweight champion.  He was also a member of the US Olympic boxing team in 2012 and is undefeated in 26 pro fights.  After winning a title unification bout, Spencer was involved in a spectacular auto accident from which he escaped essentially unhurt.  In fact, probably the worst part of the accident for him is that he was charged with DWI as a result of that accident.  Scott Ostler of the SF Chronicle had this description of the situation that tells you what you need to know about it and puts it in perspective regarding boxing history:

“Welterweight boxing champ Errol Spence spectacularly flipped his Ferrari, but he apparently got off easy with fairly minor injuries. Spence, unbelted, was ejected from his chariot. Flash back decades. A flight attendant asks then-heavyweight champ Muhammad Ali to fasten his seatbelt. Ali: ‘Superman don’t need no seat belt.’ Flight attendant: ‘Superman don’t need no airplane.’”

I read a report of a press event where Roger Goodell was asked about the new NFL pass interference rule that allows coaches to challenge calls and non-calls for both offensive and defensive pass interference.  Supposedly, Goodell said that the rule was working “as expected”.

The efficiency and the effectiveness of the new rule is almost non-existent.  Perhaps in this year’s playoffs, the rule will allow a challenge that would negate the totally blown call from last year’s Saints/Rams playoff game.  Perhaps, if the rule is invoked to assure that the “right team” makes it from the Conference Championship Game to the Super Bowl, you could say that the rule is working “as expected”.  However, the rule’s effect to date has been as follows:

  • It slows the game down by allowing coaches to challenge more things within a game.  Every challenge produces a game delay.
  • It demonstrates that there is contact more than 5 yards down the field initiated by both the offensive and the defensive player on every play that is reviewed.

Pass interference is a judgment call in all but the most egregious circumstances.  Allowing judgment calls to be challenged is not a good idea.  Imagine a basketball game where blocking/charging calls could be challenged…

Finally, Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times had this observation regarding an occurrence in the NLCS:

“Ronald Acuna Jr. drew the ire of his Braves teammates when he lost a surefire double off the wall because he slowed to admire his “home run” in a 7-6 loss to the Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLDS.

“On the plus side, though, Acuna’s got a Kraft Singles endorsement in the bag.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Upcoming Writing and Posting…

The writing schedule for the next couple of weeks will be on an “as time allows” basis.   I have some family obligations to discharge over the next several days; then my long-suffering wife and I are heading to Dublin for a visit of about 10 days.

Things should return to some state of normalcy in the week of 4 November – – until some more travel that will lead right up to Thanksgiving time.

Here is what I know:

  1.  There will be no Football Friday this week (10/25/19).
  2.  If there is a Football Friday next week (11/1/19), it will be an abbreviated version.
  3.  Standard daily rants will also likely be abbreviated versions.

Hope to be back to normal on 4 November – for a while…

Stay well, everyone…

 

 

Return of The Fog…

Several months ago, I attended my first live rugby game with my grandson in Dublin.  You may recall that I dubbed him The Fog – standing for my First and Only Grandson – and that he would sporadically be my rugby correspondent since he knows a lot more about the sport than I do.  The Rugby World Cup is ongoing, and I got this email from The Fog over the weekend telling me what happened in the match between New Zealand and Ireland.  The Fog is 12 years old; here is his report:

“On the 19th of October, Ireland faced off against New Zealand in the quarter final of the Rugby World Cup 2019. Some sports writers called it the ‘Titanic Tussle’. Ireland was second in the world before the game and New Zealand was first. This made Ireland the heavy under dogs.

“The first half started off brutally for Ireland with three early tries for New Zealand. Aaron Smith, the New Zealand scrum half had an amazing first period, in which he scored two tries. He also assisted Boden Barret over the try line. Richie Mo’unga, the New Zealand fly half, also had a stunning first forty minutes. He scored 7 points for his team. The first half ended with New Zealand winning 22-0 over Ireland. In the second half, things went from bad to worse, for Ireland. They were constantly on defence against a strong, New Zealand, front row. Ireland didn’t go quietly though. They scored two tries in the second half and they converted on both of them. It was too little too late though and the final score was 46-14. New Zealand advance to face England in the semi-final.”

Moving on to MLB in anticipation of the Nats/Astros World Series, I have two simple questions to pose:

  1. How does someone as small as José Altuve hit a baseball as hard and as far as he does?
  2. If his 9th inning home run on Saturday night had been hit in an outdoors stadium, might it have landed in Cuba?

I always find it interesting to see very good hitters facing very good pitchers; this World Series should provide plenty of such opportunities.  Both teams have 3 very good starting pitchers; both teams have more than a handful of good hitters; the mix-and-match possibilities look very good to me.  On paper, the Astros have a significant advantage with regard to the bullpen – – but games are played in the stadium and not on paper.  I think this will be an interesting World Series.

The oddsmakers in Las Vegas do not see the Series as being nearly as interesting as I do.  The Astros are minus-235 to win the Series with the Nats at +195.  Those are the shortest odds for a team to win the Series before the first game had been played since 2007.  Back then, the Red Sox were even heavier favorites to beat the Rockies – – which the Sox did.  Las Vegas may have the Astros as heavy favorites, but they do not seem to envision either team sweeping the series.  Here are those current odds:

  • Astros sweep the Nats is 7.5 to 1
  • Nats sweep the Astros is 25 to 1.

The NBA regular season will begin this week.  The NY Knickerbockers will play their first home game in Madison Square Garden on Saturday night.  I wonder if in the pre-game festivities they will arrange for owner James Dolan to throw out the first fan of the season and revoke his season tickets.  Just a thought…

Also, I would like to pose a rhetorical question to the players on the team that wins the NBA Championship next June.  I am sure that many – if not most – of those players would choose not to accept an invitation to go to the White House as part of their championship celebration – and I have no problem with that at all.  Here is my question

  • If President Xi Jinping of China invites the NBA champions to come to his office for an honorary visit, would you go, or would you stiff the President of the PRC?
  • Oh, while I am at it, let me ask Commissioner Silver what his position might be in this circumstance?

Last week, I mentioned that Landry Jones had been assigned to the Dallas franchise in the XFL.  Because I did not remember, I went looking to see where Jones had been drafted by the Steelers when he came out of college.  In that search, I concluded that the 2013 NFL Draft was a low water mark for NFL QB prospects.  Most fans remember the 1983 draft which had John Elway, and Jim Kelly and Dan Marino up for grabs in addition to a couple of other guys who played positively in the league for a while.  Not so in 2013; here is the list of QBs taken then:

  1. E.J. Manuel – Round 1 – Bills
  2. Geno Smith – Round 2 – Jets
  3. Mike Glennon – Round 3 – Bucs
  4. Matt Barkley – Round 4 – Eagles
  5. Ryan Nassib – Round 4 – Giants
  6. Tyler Wilson – Round 4 – Raiders
  7. Landry Jones – Round 4 – Steelers
  8. Brad Sorenson – Round 7 – Chargers
  9. Zac Dysart – Round 7 – Broncos
  10. B.J. Daniels – Round 7 – Niners
  11. Sean Renfree – Round 7 – Falcons

That list would qualify as a Rogues’ Gallery …

Finally, Brad Dickson had this comment regarding the recently passed Columbus Day holiday:

“Happy Columbus Day. During his voyage Columbus actually veered about 1200 miles off course. This was the first ever documented use of Mapquest.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Football Friday 10/18/19

I don’t like tacos enough to celebrate Taco Tuesday except by accident.  However, I do like football enough to celebrate Football Friday whenever my schedule will permit.

Last week, the Six-Pack broke even at 3-3.  Cumulatively for the season:

  • Six-Pack is 20-10
  • College games are 9-3
  • NFL games are 11-7

 

College Football Comments:

 

The Linfield College Wildcats treated their Homecoming crowd to a blowout win over Puget Sound last week to the tune of 77-22.  Linfield ran out to a 35-0 lead and never looked back.  That brings the Wildcats record to 3-1 for the season; since their Division III regular season schedule only has 9 games, that puts Linfield just 2 wins short of yet one more winning season in football.  This week the Willamette Bearcats visit McMinnville OR in another Northwest Conference game.  Willamette brings a 2-3 record to the game; there is one common opponent for the two teams:

  • Linfield beat Pacific 52-14
  • Willamette lost to Pacific 59-14
  • Go Wildcats!

College football has always been a regional sport.  In the beginnings, it was an east coast sport played by Ivy League schools and others in that part of the world.  The game migrated south and west; for years now, the “center of gravity” for college football has been from the Carolinas west to Texas and down to the southern border of the US.  For a while, West Coast football was sort of relevant; USC was a dominant team for a while; UCLA was relevant more often than not; more recently Washington and Oregon made noise on a national level.  Such does not look to be the case in 2019.

When Oklahoma defeated Texas last week, it pretty well rendered college football west of Norman OK interesting – – but unimportant.  Maybe the focus of “Western Football” this year is Boise St. who is undefeated as of this morning with a schedule in front of it that makes you think they could remain in that condition.  No one thinks that the Mountain West Conference is equivalent to the PAC-12 out west – – but most college football observers think the PAC-12 is nothing more than interesting – – but unimportant.

With the college season about half over, there are 4 teams that have underachieved the hype and expectations for those teams back in August.  Please note, three of these four teams have a winning record; those teams are not abject failures; I just think they have fallen short of what was expected from them.

  • Michigan Wolverines:  Yes, they are 5-1 having just beaten Illinois.  However, this was supposed to be the year that Michigan won the Big 10 and crashed the CFP party.  So far this year, the Wolverines have not made me sit up and take notice that they are a powerhouse; it is not clear that they are favorites to win the Big 10 East – – let alone the Conference Championship.  Michigan struggled to beat Army (certainly not a CFP candidate) and later beat Iowa (not a CFP candidate either) by the rousing score of 10-3.  Moreover, that loss on their record is not just a blot; it was a total beatdown by Wisconsin.
  • Tennessee Volunteers:  The Vols won last week to raise their record to 2-4.  No one outside Knoxville – other than those folks who sings Rocky Top as a lullaby to put their kids to sleep – thought that Tennessee would beat out the real big dogs in the SEC for the SEC Championship in 2019.  But no one expected the Vols to be this bad – – especially not coach Jeremy Pruitt who has seen his team lose to Georgia State and then lose to BYU after leading by what should have been a comfortable margin in the 4th quarter.  The next two weeks pit the Vols against serious competition; this week at Alabama and next week at home against South Carolina.   After that, the schedule softens significantly but by then, the Vols may need to win-out to be bowl eligible.
  • UCF Golden Knights:  UCF is 4-2 on the season having lost two of its last 3 games.  We heard so much over the past 2 years about how UCF was the shadow national champion and the idea was they would roll though 2019 undefeated again and maybe – – just MAYBE – – get the big guys in college football to give then a shot at the real national championship.  As they would often say to losing contestants on TV game shows:

“What lovely parting gifts do we have for the Golden Knights, Bob?”

  • Washington Huskies:  The Huskies are 5-2; the losses are to Cal and Stanford which are good but not great teams; of the five wins, probably the best opponent was USC whose record stands today at 3-3.  There was talk during the summer that this was the year that the PAC-12 would not be shut out of the CFP festivities and that Washington would be the PAC-12 rep in the tournament.  That is not going to happen with those two losses already on the books.

Looking at remaining schedules, two teams are interesting now.  Auburn is 5-1 with 6 game remaining.  Here are 3 of those 6 opponents:

  • At LSU
  • Vs. Georgia
  • Vs. Alabama

Another schedule that caught my eye was Minnesota.  The Gophers are 6-0 now and with Rutgers on tap this week and with Maryland up next week, there is good reason to expect that record to inflate to 8-0.  Then the road gets bouncier:

  • Vs. Penn State – undefeated and currently ranked in the Top Ten
  • At Iowa – always tough at home
  • At Northwestern – a relative breather
  • Vs. Wisconsin – undefeated and currently ranked in the Top Ten

I mentioned above that Tennessee won its game last week over Mississippi State by a score of 20-10.  Obviously, coach Jeremy Pruitt slept better on Saturday night than he would have had the Vols lost again.  In addition, this report from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times indicates that someone else slept better last Saturday night.

“Tyler Ivens, a Knoxville sports-radio host, is living on the roof of Toyota Knoxville and vowing to stay there until the volunteers (1-4 with the only victory coming against Tennessee-Chattanooga) win another football game.

“So, what does he have a better chance of catching first – a win or shingles?”

The big surprise in SEC-land last week was South Carolina beating previously undefeated Georgia at Georgia by a score of 20-17.  The Gamecocks’ defense played an outstanding game.  The color commentator for the game said several times he thought Georgia’s Jake Fromm was the best QB in the country.  I respectfully disagree; Fromm missed too many open throws in this game to be “the best”.  He is a very good QB and he will be drafted in the NFL and can probably play at that level – – but “best in the country”?  I ran across this interesting stat for Georgia and Jake Fromm:

  • When Jake Fromm throws fewer than 30 passes, Georgia is 29-0
  • When Jake Fromm throws 30 or more passes, Georgia is 0-5.

In an embarrassing outcome for SEC football, UNLV beat Vandy 34-10.  Compounding the agony here, the game was in Nashville; I guess the only bright spot here is that it was not Homecoming Weekend.  [That happens this weekend.]  UNLV is now 2-4 for the season and all four losses have been by more than 2 scores.

Alabama beat Texas A&M 47-28.  I said last week that the Aggies could not get themselves into a shoot-out with Alabama; their defense was not able to prevent that from happening.  On the bright side, the Aggies defense held Alabama below its scoring average for the season.  Bama entered the game scoring at a 51.8 points per game clip.

In the Game of the Week, LSU beat Florida 42-28.  LSU remains unbeaten; Florida lost for the first time.  Going into this game the Gators’ defense had been allowing only 9.5 points per game; LSU rang them up for 6 TDs.  LSU QB, Joe Burrow, put up these stats against a very good Florida defense:

  • 21 for 24 for 293 yards and 3 TDs
  • Not a bad day at the office…

I mentioned above that Oklahoma beat Texas in the Red River Shootout on Saturday by a score of 34-27.  The halftime score was a defense-dominated 10-3 in favor of the Sooners.  So, what happened at halftime?  Did both offensive units pound down a bunch of energy drinks or did both defensive units load up on Quaaludes?

Baylor beat Texas Tech 33-30 last week to remain undefeated for the season.

Boise St. beat Hawaii 59-37 last week to remain undefeated.  I had the game OVER 60 in last week’s Six-Pack.  I must say that I did not expect Boise to come that close to taking the game over all by itself.

Appalachian State beat Louisiana-Lafayette 17-7; Appalachian State is undefeated for the year.

Clemson beat Florida State 45-14.  At one point in the second quarter, Clemson had more TDs than Florida State had first downs.  This was an unadulterated beatdown.

Louisville beat Wake Forest 62-59 handing the Demon Deacons their first loss of the season.  The two teams combined for 1188 yards of offense and 121 points here.  There must have been a notation on each team’s schedule that defense was “optional” for this game.

Another team to suffer its first loss of the year was Memphis.  Temple beat Memphis 30-28; four Memphis turnovers in the game led to this loss.  By the way, Temple is a very quiet 5-1 so far this year…

Wisconsin beat Michigan State 38-0.  Folks, Wisconsin has given up only 29 points in 6 games; four of the six wins have been shutouts.  Meanwhile the Badgers have scored 255 points in those 6 wins; the closest game so far was a 24-15 victory over Northwestern.  Wisconsin plays at Ohio State (also undefeated for 2019) next week.  Clear your calendars…

Penn State beat Iowa 17-12 in a defensive slugfest.  By the way, the Penn State defense is very good too.

Minnesota stayed unbeaten with a dominant win over Nebraska 34-7.  The Gophers ran the ball for 322 yards in this game.

Toward the bottom of the Big 10, we find Purdue beating up on Maryland 40-14.  For some perspective here, consider that Penn State held Purdue to minus-30 yards rushing and 93 yards total offense 2 weeks ago.  Last week, Purdue ran the ball for 138 yards and passed for an additional 420 yards.  Put those two sets of stats for the Purdue in juxtaposition if you dare…

Indiana shut out Rutgers 35-0.  Let me try to put this result in perspective too:

  • Indiana’s defense has held 3 opponents under 25 points so far this year.  Those three opponents were Ball St., UConn and E. Illinois (Division 1-AA).
  • Rutgers fired its coach 3 weeks ago.  Since then they have lost to Maryland by 41 points and then suffered this shutout loss by 5 TDs.  Might I suggest – ever so humbly – that the coach was not the problem at Rutgers?

Out west, Arizona State rallied from a 10-point deficit to beat Washington State 38-34.  Herm Edwards has the Sun Devils at 5-1 for the season with Utah, USC and Oregon still on the schedule.  Meanwhile, this is not the first time this year that Washington State has run out to a lead and then surrendered it in a loss.  Remember that UCLA scored 50 points in the second half against the Cougars earlier this year.

Oregon beat Colorado 45-3.  Since losing the opening game of the year to Auburn 27-21, Oregon has given up exactly 1 TD in 5 games.  In this rout, the Ducks registered 4 INTs.

Notre Dame beat USC 30-27 last week.  The Trojans rallied for 2 TDs in the 4th quarter to make the game look closer than it was.  That rally also made one of last week’s Six-Pack picks into a loser.  The Irish ran the ball for 308 yards in this contest.

Rice had the week off; so, it remains winless for the season.  Both Akron and New Mexico State lost last week; they too have yet to win a game in 2019.

Louisiana Tech beat UMass 69-21.  UMass came to the game with the worst scoring defense in the nation yielding more than 46 points per game.  And last week, made that stat even worse…

 

College Games of Interest:

 

Going into the games for this weekend, the Big 10 has 4 teams with 6-0 records.  According to CBSSports.com, the last time that happened was in 1906 and one of the teams that was undefeated then was the University of Chicago Maroons coached by Amos Alonzo Stagg.  One needs to be a football historian – or a trivia geek – to know that Chicago was one of the founding members of the Big 10 and ceded its place to Michigan State about 100 years ago with “rights of recall”.  Not a lot of danger that Chicago would want to take up football at the Big 10 level of competition any time soon…

(Fri Nite) Ohio State – 28 at Northwestern (49):  Only real hope for the Wildcats here is for Ohio State to be looking ahead to next week’s showdown with Wisconsin.

Wisconsin – 31 at Illinois (51):  Only real hope for the Illini here is for Wisconsin to be looking ahead to next week’s show down with Ohio State.

Clemson – 23.5 at Louisville (61):  The Cardinals put 62 points on the scoreboard last week against Wake Forest.  They will probably not score one-third of that total in this game.

Buffalo – 17 at Akron (48):  Akron seeks its first win here…

Rice – 4.5 at Texas-San Antonio (46.5):  Rice is winless this year and they are favored on the road in this game.  Does that tell you something about the esteem in which the oddsmakers hold UTSA?

Indiana – 5.5 at Maryland (59):  Indiana pitched a shutout last week and Maryland got steamrollered last week.  Who knows what might happen here?  Oh, and who cares?

Florida State at Wake Forest – 2 (69):  Wake Forest scored 59 points last week and lost the game.  That should be a wake-up call for the Florida State offense.

Purdue at Iowa – 17 (48):  Iowa is a tough place for visiting teams; this should be a low-scoring affair.

Boise St. – 7 at BYU (46.5):  Boise St. is undefeated, and they take a week off from conference play to face a serious challenge to their undefeated status.

Arizona St. at Utah – 13.5 (45):  This is an important game in the race for the PAC-12 South.  I agree with the oddsmaker here; this will be a low-scoring game.  I think the line is fat given that the Sun Devils have only lost once this year.  I’ll put Arizona St. plus the points in this week’s Six-Pack even on the road.

Oregon – 3 at Washington (49.5):  Both of these teams have intra-state rivalries and those games draw plenty of attention and publicity.  However, this rivalry is as intense as those intra-state games.  Oregon is undefeated in PAC-12 games; Washington is 2-2 in PAC-12 games.  The Huskies are all but eliminated from the PAC-12 North title and a loss here would shovel the dirt in on the coffin.  I like Oregon to win and cover here based on the strength of the Oregon defense, so I’ll put Oregon in this week’s Six-Pack.

Florida – 4 at S. Carolina (48):  The Gators are coming off their loss to LSU and the Gamecocks are coming off a huge road win over Georgia.  This could be a blowout game in either direction.  I think S. Carolina suffers a let-down game here.  I’ll put Florida to win and cover in this week’s Six-Pack.

LSU – 18 at Mississippi St. (61):  Mississippi St. is always tough at home and often pull a huge upset over a highly ranked rival in that venue.  Having said that, I don’t think that is going to happen here.  LSU has a significant edge in talent here.

Tennessee at Alabama – 34 (61):  This is gonna be a spanking…

Baylor at Oklahoma St. – 4 (68.5):  Baylor is undefeated this year and is a road underdog; Oklahoma St. is a tough out in Stillwater.  Also, it is Homecoming Weekend for OK St…

Minnesota – 28 at Rutgers (47.5):  Minnesota maintains its status as an undefeated team on the road this week.  Rutgers has been shut out 3 times this year – every other game on the schedule.  Rutgers is 0-4 against Big 10 opponents losing by a combined score of 165-7.

Missouri – 21 at Vandy (56.5):  It is Homecoming Weekend for the Commodores, but I don’t think the alums will be smiling too much after this game.

Temple at SMU – 7 (60):  Last week, Temple knocked off undefeated AAC foe, Memphis.  This week they face another undefeated AAC opponent.

Michigan at Penn St. – 9 (47):  Penn St. is undefeated, and Michigan has lost only once.  Both are in the thick of the Big 10 East race at this point, but the loser will be in deep water.  Call this one the Game of the Week.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Three of the top teams in the NFL so far this year are the Ravens, Patriots and the Niners.  In addition to their gaudy records, it is fair to say that none of the three have gone through the toughest part of their schedule yet.  Let’s take a look…

The Ravens are 4-2 with wins over the Dolphins, Cardinals, Steelers and Bengals.  The losses came at the hands of the Chiefs and the Browns.  So, what has the schedule-maker put on the back end of the Ravens calendar?

  • At Seahawks
  • BYE Week
  • Vs Patriots
  • At Bengals
  • Vs. Texans
  • At Rams
  • Vs. Niners
  • At Bills
  • Vs Jets
  • At Browns
  • Vs Steelers

The Patriots are undefeated at 6-0; their opponents to date have been a motley crew other than one game against the Bills in Buffalo.  Now comes the interesting part of the Pats’ schedule.

  • At Jets
  • Vs Browns
  • At Ravens
  • BYE Week
  • At Eagles
  • Vs Cowboys
  • At Texans
  • Vs Chiefs
  • At Bengals
  • Vs Bills
  • Vs Dolphins

The Niners are likewise undefeated in 2019 with a 5-0 record; they have already had their BYE Week.  So, what’s next?

  • At Skins
  • Vs Panthers
  • At Cardinals
  • Vs Seahawks
  • Vs Cardinals
  • Vs Packers
  • At Ravens
  • At Saints
  • Vs Falcons
  • Vs Rams
  • At Seahawks

The Ravens, Pats and Niners will be tested more severely from here to the end of December than they have been to date…

After the Cowboys lost to the Jets last week – details later – both Dez Bryant and Terrell Owens criticized Jason Garrett and tried to pin the loss on him.  Remember when your Mom told you that you were known by the company you keep?  Well, the obverse can be true also.  Sometimes, the people who are against you speak eloquently to your credit.  Personally, I take the criticism(s) from Bryant and Owens as an endorsement for Jason Garrett.

I discussed the Packers’ win over the Lions in a Topical Rant earlier this week.  That game was not one that will likely be immortalized by NFL Films.

In last week’s Bagel Bowl where two winless teams sought to shed that label, the Skins beat the Dolphins 17-16.  Earlier in the week, the Dolphins’ coaching staff anointed Josh Rosen as the starting QB for the rest of the season.  Indeed, he started the game; but the coaches pulled him in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick in medias res.  A late two-touchdown rally by the Dolphins turned this into a nail-biter that ended with the Dolphins missing a 2-point conversion with only 6 seconds left on the clock.

Brad Dickson had this comment relative to the Skins’ game under their new interim head coach:

“You know unemployment is low when Bill Callahan gets a head coaching job.”

The Panthers beat the Bucs 37-26 in London.  The Panthers defense dominated this game with 7 sacks and 5 INTs.  With those stats, it is surprising that the Bucs scored 26 points.

The Seahawks rallied to beat the Browns 32-28.  The Browns had a 2 TD lead in the first half of this game and coughed it up.  Four Browns’ turnovers – including 3 INTs by Baker Mayfield – enabled the Seahawks’ comeback.  The Seahawks ran for 170 yards in the game and Russell Wilson threw 2 TDs – and scored a running TD on his own – to fuel the comeback.

The Vikes beat the Eagles 38-20.  The Eagles’ defense was a no-show last week allowing the Vikes 447 yards on offense.  Oh wait, The Vikes just scored another long TD over Rasul Douglas as I was typing that last sentence.

The Ravens beat the Bengals 23-17 last week.  The Bengals were competitive here, but they are still looking for their first win in 2019.  They played hard and they were in the game to the end.  Bengals’ WR, Auden Tate, had a breakout game – 5 receptions for 95 yards. In the end, though, this was just the Bengals being the Bengals and playing just poorly enough to lose.  The Bengals are a very bad NFL team right now.

The Saints beat the Jags 13-6.  The Saints’ defense limited the Jags to 226 yards total offense.

The Niners beat the Rams 20-7.  This was not the OVER 50 I predicted in last week’s Six-Pack but the Niners remain unbeaten.  The Niners’ defense stopped the Rams 4 times on 4th down in the game.  Jared Goff registered 78 yards passing in the game, and the Rams only totaled 157 yards on offense.  Holding the Rams to that low an output was thought to be as impossible as breaking the 4-minute mile once was.   The Rams tried to get a first down on third down or fourth down 13 times in this game; they converted ZERO of those attempts.

  • [Aside:  Do not think that only the Chargers’ fans in LA are not all that enthusiastic about their team.  The Niners had at least 40% of the LA Coliseum on their side for this game.  Front-running LA fans ought to be climbing all over the Rams in 2019 after a Super Bowl appearance as the climax to last year’s schedule; but they are not…]

The Texans beat the Chiefs 31-24 last week.  The Chiefs’ defense needs help – lots of help.  It gave up 192 yards rushing in this game.  The Texans and the Colts look like the class of the AFC South and should be battling it out for the rest of the season – – starting with a matchup this week.

The Broncos shut out the Titans 16-0 last week.  The Titans are not an offensive juggernaut but getting shut out by a Denver defense that has had problems of its own this year is pathetic.  Marcus Mariota was 7-18 for 63 yards and 2 INTs when he got pulled in favor of Ryan Tannehill.  The Broncos’ defense had 7 sacks in the game.

The Titans need to make a decision about their QB. Marcus Mariota’s contract is up at the end of the year; Ryan Tannehill probably isn’t the long-term answer under center. So, are the Titans ready to commit to Mariota?  Or should they go free-agent QB shopping?  Or can they find a QB in the draft?  The Titans’ defense is solid, but they need increased production on a consistent basis from the offense – – and that has not been forthcoming for a couple of seasons now.

The Jets beat the Cowboys 24-22.  The Jets’ offense looked competent with Sam Darnold on the field.  They were not an offensive juggernaut, but they were not a liability when they were on the field.  The Jets had been averaging a pathetic 179 yards on offense with Darnold in street clothes; in this game they had 338 yards on offense.  That’s not great but it is an 89% increase in productivity.  The Jets’ defense was harassing all day long; Dak Prescott was hammered more than a few times.  The Cowboys have now lost 3 in a row; this is the third straight game where they did not score a TD in the first half of the game.

The Cardinals beat the Falcons 34-33 last week.  The reason Dan Quinn was hired by the Falcons in the first place was his stature as a defensive guru.  In 2019, the Falcons rank 26th in the NFL in yards allowed per game at 388.8.  Last week, Kyler Murray threw for 340 yards and 3 TDs against the Falcons’ defense.  Matt Ryan had a stat line that should have belonged to a winning QB and not a losing one:

  • 30 for 36 for 356 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs

The margin of defeat for the Falcons was a missed PAT by Matt Bryant.  Having said that, Bryant is not responsible for the loss here.

The Patriots dominated the Giants 35-14 last week.  The Pats gave up their first passing TD of the year in the game.  I guess Giants’ fans can count that as a bight spot for the Giants.  The Pats do need to get better at WR – – through a trade or through the healing of Josh Gordon and his leg injuries.  Take your pick…

The Steelers beat the Chargers 24-17.  This game was not nearly as close as the score appears; the Steelers dominated from the start.  Melvin Gordon only gained 18 yards on the ground here; the Steelers’ defense was suffocating.  The Steelers won this game on the road playing their 3rd string QB.  Now, the Steelers get a welcome scheduling respite.  They have their BYE Week followed by a game against the sorry-assed Dolphins

  • Memo to Steelers’ Coaches and Players:  You must not squander this scheduling largesse…

Even though this game was in LA, the crowd was clearly pro Steelers.  If you told me that 60% of the fans were wearing “black and gold” for the game, I would concur.  Visiting teams need not fear playing an away game at the Chargers home field..  The Chargers are 1-3 at “home” this year.

 

NFL Games:

 

Teams taking a break this week:

  1. Browns:  That hissing sound you hear is all the over-inflated hype that was pumped into balloons for Browns’ fans during the last offseason.
  2. Bucs:  They get time off to decompress from last week’s game in London.  The Bucs record today is 2-4 and their record at home is 0-3.  Interesting…
  3. Panthers:  They too get time off to decompress from last week’s game in London.  The Panthers are hanging in NFC South race only one game behind the Saints.
  4. Steelers:  They won an important game last week with solid defense and a 3rd string QB who did not embarrass himself or the team.  For the longer term, they need Mason Rudolph to clear the concussion protocols

There has been a lot of “line movement” this week in NFL games.  Please do not ask me to explain why…

Arizona at Giants – 3 (50.5):  This spread opened at 1 point and has expanded slowly as the week progressed.  Kyler Murray has had two big games in a row; you can devalue that a bit by pointing out that those games came against the Bengals and Falcons – ranked 29th and 26th respectively in total defense this year.  However, he goes against a Giants’ defense this week that ranks 28th this year.  Why not another big game?  Meanwhile, the 30th ranked Cards’ defense gets to try and stop Daniel Jones…  This is not the Dog-Breath Game of the Week, but it came close to earning that stigma.

Houston at Indy – 1 (47):  The spread opened here with the Texans as a 1-point road favorite.  That flipped over quickly and now the spread has been steady for a couple of days.  This is the Game of the Week between two teams with winning records fighting it out for the lead in their division.  The Texans’ Deshaun Watson has been outstanding for the last couple of weeks – coincidentally the Texans’ O-Line has protected him for those two games.  The Colts have been solid all season long.  The key to the game is the ability of the Texans’ defense to contain the Colts’ running attack; so far this year, the Texans have been solid there ranking 8th in the NFL

Miami at Buffalo – 17 (41):  The Bills come off a BYE Week to host a junior varsity opponent.  There is no way I would take the Dolphins on the road nor is there any way I would lay 17 points with the Bills’ inconsistent offense.  The most interesting aspect of this game to me is this;

  • Will the Dolphins score more than once in the game?

Minnesota – 2 at Detroit (45):  Here is another game where the favorite has flipped; the Lions opened the week as a 1-point favorite.  The Vikes offense has had two good outings in a row (against the Giants and the Eagles); maybe they are on a roll?  The Lions come to the game off a short week after losing to the Packers and the officials on Monday Night.

Oakland at Green Bay – 6 (47):  This spread opened with the Packers as 7.5-point favorites.  Like the Lions, the Packers come to the game off a short work week.  Meanwhile, the Raiders had a BYE last week.  I think there are 2 keys to this game:

  1. Can the Packers run defense stop Josh Jacobs?  The Packers rank 23rd in the league in run defense allowing 124.5 yards per game.
  2. Will the Packers have either Davante Adams or Geronimo Allison – or both – active as WRs?

I’ll put the Raiders plus the points in this week’s Six-Pack.

Jax – 3.5 at Cincy (44):  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Jags were bad enough before they traded Jalen Ramsey away earlier this week.  The Bengals are just plain bad.  The Jags should run the ball all day long; the Bengals surrender an embarrassing 184.5 yards per game.  That is the worst in the NFL by a margin of 14.9 yards per game.

Rams – 3 at Atlanta (55):  Both defenses are suspect here.  Both offenses seem to feast on marginal defenses.  If forced to make a pick here I would play OVER.  Fortunately, I am not forced to do anything, so I’ll pass on that opportunity.

SF – 9.5 at Washington (41) The Total Line opened at 43.5 and has dropped to this level.  No; I do not know why.  Kyle Shanahan may want to rub it in here for the way he and his father were escorted out of town by Danny Boy Snyder and his Enabler-in Chief, Bruce Allen.  Just a hunch, I’ll put the Niners in this week’s Six-Pack and lay the points.

Chargers at Tennessee – 2 (40):  You can find this line from 2.5 points all the way down to 1 point this morning.  The Chargers are just not nearly as good as I thought they might be back in August; the Titans continue to be the most inconsistent team in the league.  Ryan Tannehill starts at QB for the Titans; is that a plus?

Baltimore at Seattle – 3 (49):  If you adhere to the rule of thumb that a home team gets a 3-point advantage, this game would be a “pick-‘em” at a neutral site.  That looks about right to me – but I think the Seahawks enjoy a larger home-field advantage than your garden-variety NFL squad.  Russell Wilson would be my pick for MVP if I had a vote and if the vote were held this morning.  I’ll put the Seahawks to win and cover in this week’s Six-Pack.

New Orleans at Chicago – 3 (38):  I gave this game serious consideration as the Game of the Week.  The Bears just put Kyle Long – their best offensive lineman – and Akiem Hicks – a damned good defensive lineman – on IR.  Moreover, I don’t know who their starting QB is going to be.  Too many unknowns to make a pick here…

(Sun Nite) Philly at Dallas – 3 (49):  If these teams had winning records, this would have been the Game of the Week because it is an important division game and because these teams – channeling Keith Jackson here – just plain don’t like each other.  Amari Cooper may or may not be available; if he does play, he will likely be less than 100%.  In that case, I think the Eagles’ defense should be able to deal with the Cowboys passing attack.  Now, can they also handle Ezekiel Elliott?

(Mon Nite) New England – 9.5 at Jets (42):  Sam Darnold makes a positive difference on offense for the Jets.  He did not play in the first meeting between these two teams.  The Pats had that game so well under control that they played backup Jarret Stidham for the 4th quarter.  I don’t think the Jets can win here, but it will be a much more interesting game than the one back in Week 3.

Let me summarize this week’s Six-Pack:

  1. Arizona St. +13.5 against Utah
  2. Oregon – 3 over Washington
  3. Florida – 4 over South Carolina
  4. Raiders + 6 against Packers
  5. Niners – 9.5 over Skins
  6. Seahawks – 3 over Ravens

Finally, Brad Dickson offered up some courtship advice that is pertinent to NFL football:

“Forty-niners defensive lineman D.J. Jones just proposed to his girlfriend on the sidelines at Monday Night Football. That’s crazy. A proposal should be done in absolute privacy when there’s not a soul around – say, at Thursday Night Football.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The Chargers In LA…

For the past several years, lots of folks have poked fun at the LA Chargers who have been unable to attract a sufficiently significant fanbase in LA to fill their 30,000-seat stadium.  There is precious little “home field advantage” for the Chargers there; normally the crowd is equally divided between Charger fans and visiting fans.  The general narrative has been that all will be well once the Chargers get to be tenants in the new $5B stadium complex being built in LA by Rams’ owner, Stan Kroenke.  Recent reports, however, cast a small shadow on that rosy scenario.

As part of the deal that got NFL approval for the Rams to move back to LA, the Chargers were designated as tenants in the new stadium and part of the deal called for the Chargers to sell a bunch of Personal Seat Licenses (PSLs) to help fund the stadium complex itself.  This was not a commitment by the Chargers but the sales they would generate would be part of the base funding for the stadium.  The amount “pledged” by the Chargers was $400M.

[Aside:  These figures need to be put in context; Stan Kroenke’s net worth is estimated to be about $10B.  Therefore, $400M represents 4% of his wealth.  Moreover, his family wealth is beyond the $10B figure because his wife is an heir to the Wal-Mart enterprises, and her net worth is approximately $7B.]

Back to the Chargers…  It surely looks as if they are going to fall short of that $400M PSL target.  Sales to date have been slow; the total value is only about $50M.  That $400M, plus NFL-provided financing to the tune of $200M, was supposed to provide a bit more than 10% of the total cost of the stadium and real estate development project.  Recent reports say that the Chargers are looking to goose the sales by reducing the prices on their PSLs.  Economics 101 says that demand for a product will increase when the price is decreased; from that perspective, the move makes sense.  As is often the case, there is a “HOWEVER” in there:

  • Under reduced pricing, the target figure now is only $150M; that is less than 40% of the original target.
  • It is unclear if the Chargers will give rebates to fans who have already purchased Chargers’ PSLs at the original price.  For a team that has had difficulty in attracting fan interest in LA, that would be a great way to piss off the “first adopters” of the new team.

Mr. Kroenke is responsible to make up any shortfall(s) here; for the Chargers, this means they have “disappointed” their new landlord even before moving in.  To be clear, that is not a good move.

Back when the wheeling and dealing was going on regarding the NFL’s return to LA, there were 3 teams in the mix.  The Rams wanted upgrades in St. Louis they could not extract from the politicos there; the Raiders wanted – and needed – a new stadium but there was no way the city of Oakland could or would build one for them; the Chargers needed a new stadium too but not to the same extent that the Raiders did and the citizens of San Diego voted in a referendum not to devote public funds to such an endeavor.  Of those 3 teams, moving the Chargers made the least sense to me then; and in light of what has gone down with the team and its crowds and these PSL sales, it makes less sense today.

Speaking of new stadiums and financial considerations, the Raiders are moving along with their new stadium in Las Vegas.  One of the problems that the new stadium location had was that there was a lack of nearby parking for fans who might want to tailgate before a game and for the number of vehicles that one would expect to attract to a stadium that will seat 65,000 fans normally but is expandable to 72,000.  One of the original “solutions” to this problem would be to create satellite parking areas with shuttle buses; some of the identified satellite facilities were a couple of miles from the stadium.

Somehow, that situation needed improvement.  Recent reports indicate that improvement is on its way.  The Las Vegs Review-Journal reports that the Raiders have purchased a 17-acre tract near the stadium to be used for stadium parking.  The cost of the tract was $28M or about $1.65M per acre.  That looks to me as if the previous owner of the land recognized the importance of that acreage to the Raiders.  In addition, the team has also acquired several “parking lots and commercial buildings” proximal to the stadium site.  Here is the full story from the Review-Journal.

Switching from the NFL to the XFL, the new league assigned each of its 8 teams a QB as Round 1 of the XFL Draft.  All XFL players have contracts with the league so these assignments were made in a mysterious way.  Two of the QB assignments look like marketing decisions to me:

  1. The XFL’s Washington DC team gets Cardale Jones as a QB.  Cardale Jones is a physically large black QB who played college football at Ohio State.  Coincidentally, the NFL’s Washington DC team has Dwayne Haskins on the roster nominally as its QB-of-the-future.  Dwayne Haskins is a physically large black QB who played college football at Ohio State.  What are the odds…?
  2. The XFL’s Dallas team gets Landry Jones as a QB.  Could there be a more aptly named QB for a pro football team in Dallas than Landry Jones?  The only way to increase the ties to “Pro Football in Dallas” would be for Landry Jones to name his daughter Meredith.  [Aside: Yes, Landry Jones was named for Tom Landry.]

Finally, here is an observation from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times:

“Former NHL forward Darren McCarty says marijuana “saved his life.”

“Which probably just clinched him the first Lady Bong Trophy.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The Integrity Of The Games

By now, you must have heard about and seen the replays of the highly controversial calls made and not made by the officials in the Packers/Lions game on Monday night.  I do not care to rehash the purported importance of those calls on the outcome of the game; those sorts of issues have been litigated to death on sports radio and on the talking-head TV shows.  I want to go in a slightly different direction with this issue.

  • The NFL is flirting with a situation where people can begin to doubt the integrity of the games on the field.

I am not accusing anyone in the league offices or any of the officials in Monday’s game of any nefarious behavior(s), but we should acknowledge that we live in society that does more than tolerate conspiracy theories.  And the NFL can allow creative thinkers to cast some conspiracy nets very broadly these days.

Ironically, the last time a Monday game ended with such an influence from the officials was the infamous “Replacement Refs Game” and the Packers were in that game too but came out as the “victims” of the bad call instead of the being the “beneficiaries” of the bad calls.  The problem is not who benefits from or who loses as a result of the actions; it is the atmosphere around the actions.

The league has to make decisions which may benefit one team or not.  The NFL suspended Tom Brady for 4 games a few years ago; that “hurt” the Pats and “helped” their 4 opponents in those games.  That sort of thing is unavoidable.  What the NFL should not allow to happen is for its officials to be seen as bumbling fools as is the case in the WWE.  Thousands of people in the stadium see what happened on the field and then see the replays; millions at home also see this; the officials saw it in real time and then see it in super slow motion on replay.  After all of that, the officials don’t see what everyone else sees.  [Aside:  That is a standard “script” for a lot of rassling matches where the “bad guy” has a “foreign object” hidden in his trunks or is slipped a “foreign object” by an outside assistant.  Everyone sees it and recognizes it – – except the referee.]

The popularity of NFL football in the US has several pillars holding it in place; one of those pillars is that millions of people wager millions of dollars on NFL games meaning that those millions of people:

  • Care about the outcome of the games
  • Care about the honesty of the processes that lead to the outcome of the games

That “caring” must not be abused lest those people stop wagering on NFL games which will weaken an important pillar of NFL popularity.  The revenue streams for the NFL and the franchise values for the teams cannot be maintained if too many people stop betting on the games.  Gambling is not the sole reason for NFL popularity, but it is a critical one.

I drew a comparison to professional wrestling above.  Let me continue with it for a moment.  Lots of people watch pro wrestling – but gambling on pro wrestling is minuscule.  People watch it to see the unfolding of a soap opera style plot along with plenty of athleticism and acrobatics.  Maybe the NFL could morph into something akin to that which would hold a fanbase’s interest, but I cannot imagine that it would be able to maintain the numbers it now enjoys.  Ergo, there is ditch along the side of the road on which the NFL is traveling and the vehicle careening down that road is edging its way toward that ditch.

During the Monday night game, former Lions’ star, Barry Sanders, Tweeted that the NFL

“… needs to look at a way to prevent that [blundered calls] from happening.”

It would be hard to argue that Sanders is wrong there.  The problem is that if the root cause of the bad calls is human error, then there is no way to prevent “that” from happening.  What the league needs to do is to try to repair any other aspects of the game that allow “that” to happen.

Part of the problem is technology and replay.  Technology allows millions of fans to have a reason to question – maybe even doubt – the competence of the officials on the field.  If they can question a set of officials enough times, then they can cross into a space where they begin to wonder if those officials might be failing to make proper decisions on the field for some reason that is not generally known.  When instant replay became feasible, the NFL adopted it as part of the game with the stated intent of

  • Getting it right.

Hey, if I were in the position of explaining why this new tool was being added to the game, I would surely use that as a justification.  I would never tout this new tool as something that would enable the officials to “get it wrong”.  Channeling Hamlet here:

“Aye, there’s the rub…”

Far too often, replay lets lots of fans see that the call on the field was wrong, but it will stand as called (wrong) for some reason that the official never explains.  That can be fertile soil to sprout some conspiracy theories.  If any of those sorts of things begin to fix themselves in the minds of fans, the slogan “On any given Sunday …” can take on an entirely new meaning on an orthogonal axis to where the league wants to go.

For the record, I am not advocating the removal of instant replay.  The toothpaste is out of the tube on that one and it is not going back in.  However, the league need not expand its purview any wider than it is now until and unless they come up with an efficient and effective way to make changes when those changes are obviously necessary.

Oh, but there is more to the “integrity of the game” issue in 2019.  Every year, there is a team in the league that is the doormat.  The NFL – knowing that competitive balance is a good thing for the league – seeks to assist that team’s efforts to become more competitive/competent through the NFL Draft.  I have argued before that the Draft may not be as great a tool for “leveling the playing field” as it is made out to be, but the intent behind the draft is noble indeed.  This year, there are a handful of “bad teams”; with almost 40% of the season in the rear-view mirror, there are two teams that have not won a game yet and three others with only one win to their credit.  [Aside: The Skins have only 1 win this year and it came at the expense of the Dolphins who have not won any games so far this year.]

And since I just mentioned the Dolphins, let me say that they are an assault on the integrity of the game for the NFL.  The NFL Draft is supposed to “alleviate the suffering” for the worst teams in the league in each season; the NFL Draft is not supposed to be a reward for winning the race to the bottom.  The Miami Dolphins in 2019 are an inept bunch – but their ineptitude feels different.  They give every indication that they are trying to lose so that they can rebuild via the draft.  That is what the Sixers did in the NBA over about a 4-year period of tanking; that surely seems to be what the Dolphins are doing now in the NFL as they have traded away their good players for future draft picks and put a mighty inferior product on the field for games this year.

Tanking in pro football – or basketball or baseball – does not protect the integrity of the game.  Intending to lose – and/or losing intentionally – is what happens in professional wrestling where few if any people identify “integrity of the game” as a vital element of the competition.  If you look at the Dolphins season in 2019, they do not seem to be trying very hard to win games.  Their first four losses were by margins of 49 points, 43 points, 25 points and 20 points.  If you look at that sequence and see it as “progress”, then you are like the little kid who is in a room up to his neck in horseshit and goes digging around in the muck to find the pony that has to be there somewhere.

In the last 10 years or so, the NFL has seen some monumentally bad teams play out a season.  However, the Lions under Rod Marinelli played to win games; they were just not good enough to do so and went 0-16.  The Browns under Hue Jackson had a pair of seasons with a cumulative record of 1-31, but they tried to win games.  The 2019 Dolphins need to do a better job of looking like they want to win a game or two.  Any objective look at their roster will tell an observer that this team is not capable of ‘breaking even” for the season – but losing their 5 games to date by an average of 27.6 points per game hints at a less than robust effort to build a competitive roster for the year.

The NFL is still the 800-lb gorilla for sports in the US and it is going to remain in that position for a long time – – unless it shoots itself in the foot.  Giving fans even a spark of a reason to question the integrity of their games is the figurative equivalent of the league not only shooting itself in the foot but also taking careful aim to assure that the bullet does the most damage possible to the bones and tendons in the foot.

Finally, since today’s rant is about football – with occasional nods toward professional wrestling – let me turn to The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm for definitions of those activities:

Football:  An American sport in which men try to get a teardrop-shaped ball from one end of a big field to another while grunting, piling on top of one another, and giddily jumping up and down when they succeed.  Homoerotic? You decide.

And …

Wrestling:  Boxing with hair.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

An Addendum … Then Tennis Tuesday

#1 son is a serious runner who tries to do at least 2 marathons per year when he is not being a university professor and raising his son.  He sent me an email yesterday after I wrote about Eliud Kipchoge’s breaking of the 2-hour barrier for the 26.2-mile distance.  Here is the text of that email:

“You really should give a shout out to Brigid Kosgei of Kenya. She broke the women’s world record at Chicago this weekend too. 2:14:04, beating the previous WR by over a minute. That record had stood for 16 years.”

That email demonstrates that I do not follow marathon running closely at all.  Indeed, breaking a world record that had stood for 16 years by a clear and open margin is worthy of a “shout out” at least.

I saved this next item for a couple of days in order to provide a long-term reader with something he routinely suggests for these rants.  Here is a Tennis Tuesday item…

Gianluca Moscarella is a chair umpire for matches sanctioned by the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP).  He has been a tennis official for ATP matches since 2010 and has earned a Gold Badge which – evidently – is the top level of certification handed out by the organization.  He was suspended from the ATP “provisionally” and removed from a tournament in Florence for some remarks that are more than a tad unusual.

  • Early in the match, he is overheard to say to a young ball girl kneeling by his chair that she is “fantastic, very sexy”.  He also asked the girl, “Are you OK?  It’s hot.  Do you feel hot?  Physically or emotionally?”
  • Later in the match while one of the players was taking a potty break after the first set, Moscarella climbed down from his chair, went to the contestant still on the court and encouraged him to “stay focused” and engaged in “coaching” that player.

The ATP has launched a “full investigation”.  Indeed, there may be more to learn by a “full investigation”, but one thing is clear to me.  If in fact there is audio evidence that Moscarella “coached” one of the match participants, that sort of behavior is anathema to sports officiating no matter what the sport.  Moreover, if again there is audio evidence that Moscarella said those things to a young girl as the match was going on, there is no justification for his continued employment as a tennis official by the ATP.

As Warner Wolf used to say – – with a minor modification here:

“Let’s go to the audio tape…”

As the sports world gets ready to ignore the XFL Draft that will happen this week, there is a report that the average XFL player will make $55K.  Since winning teams earn bonuses for winning games, the calculation here does not mean all the players will earn that much; some will necessarily earn less.  And so, before there are any announcements from the league or any analyses of rosters that are generated via the Draft, let me remind everyone:

  • You get what you pay for…

The XFL season will run 12 weeks – from the second week in February to the XFL Championship Game on April 26, 2020.  One of the provisions in the standard XFL contract is that every player is free to opt out of his contract to accept a bona fide NFL contract offer after the XFL Championship Game is over.  The salary structure here and the player’s freedom to opt out of his XFL contract in favor of an NFL contract demonstrates to me that the XFL is initially seeking to occupy a market niche as a developmental league for the NFL without any formal or legal ties to the NFL.

We have seen this business model in operation in the past and it has not worked.

  • The World League of American Football tried to use “minor league football” to develop market interest in Europe.  It failed to do that, and it also failed to develop any serious following here in the US.  Yes, it did provide NFL teams with some players in its existence, but that was not worth the cost of keeping it alive.
  • The Alliance of American Football crashed and burned in mid-season last year.  It did not have nearly the time on the vine to develop any players for the NFL; its problem was a fundamentally flawed business model wherein their games were on network TV, but the league was not getting any money for putting those games on network TV.

People tuning in to see the first XFL games played will do so the week after the Super Bowl in February 2020.  If those fans are to enjoy the XFL game on their TV screen, they are going to have to erase from memory the quality of football they saw the week before in the Super Bowl – and indeed the quality of football they saw in the full range of the NFL playoffs for the 5 weeks prior to the XFL debut.  XFL football is going to be rough around the edges to say the least; it is not going to look like the NFL; it is probably not even going to look like the CFP.

Here is the “survival question” for the XFL:

  • Can it generate sufficient interest in Year 1 to get it a revenue-generating contract for its media rights in Year 2?
  • If it can – or if it enters into some sort of symbiotic relationship with the NFL – then XFL 2.0 might just make it.
  • If it cannot, then perhaps it will have the wherewithal to try to make a go of it for a second season.  But that will be a make-or-break situation for XFL 2.0.

Finally, Dwight Perry had this observation in the Seattle Times recently:

“For you big believers in Bad Things Happen in Threes, Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) is out for the Steelers, Drew Brees (thumb) is out for the Saints and Christie Brinkley (broken arm) is out for ‘Dancing with the Stars’.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Social Justice…

Over the past couple of years when athletes have taken a stand on social or political issues, there has been a segment of response that goes along the lines of:

  • Stay in your lane; play your sport; do your activism in private and not in people’s faces.

That response always triggers folks to cry “censorship of free speech” and what then happens is that the issue gets lost as folks argue about the propriety of the athlete’s declarations about the issue.  When I say the name “Colin Kaepernick” today, more people associate him with “kneeling during the National Anthem” then with “protesting police brutality”.

Today, the NBA finds itself in a similar situation with the “Daryl Morey Tweeting Affair”.  The NBA is trying to have it both ways:

  • On one hand, the NBA has “branded itself” as an organization that is a social justice warrior.
  • On the other hand, the NBA takes in billions of dollars from Chinese companies that are coerced to behave the way the Chinese government wants them to behave and now those billions of dollars are at risk if the NBA does not satisfactorily condemn Daryl Morey and/or the Houston Rockets and/or the NBA’s initial positions in the “Tweeting Affair”.

Maybe – just maybe – the best reason for athletes and sporting enterprises to steer clear of sociopolitical issues is that it does not help to alleviate the root causes of the issues of concern – – but it sure does impact the revenue stream(s).

  • [Aside: Quietly, one of the NBA teams – the Blazers – has found itself in the middle of another social justice matter.  Based on protests, the team has disassociated itself with a company that also does business with the Israeli Defense Force.  Of course, the team is free to make that choice for itself, but the issue of boycotting Israel and divesting any ownership or relationship with Israeli entities is a controversial one.]

Another entity caught in the middle of all this is ESPN.  Nominally, ESPN is an entity associated with “sports journalism”.  Actually, ESPN is dependent on the NBA to provide it with hundreds of hours of original programming that ESPN needs the way Dracula needs blood.  ESPN has had to walk a fine line here with regard to reporting on this entire matter; in fact, if you are interested in following the latest happenings, there are other places you might go before ESPN.  Let me just say that ESPN’s coverage here has not put the reputations of Woodward and Bernstein in any sort of danger.

Moving on from social justice and back to sports, a Kenyan runner, Eliud Kipchoge, broke the 2-hour barrier for the marathon by running the 26.2 miles in 1 hour, 59 minutes and 40 seconds.  That is about 10 seconds faster than the standing world record for a marathon.  And … the folks who regulate running in the world are not going to recognize this feat as a world record.  To be sure, there were significant differences between this event and a “typical” marathon run as a road race.  Consider:

  • The course was laid out and chosen for speed and not for duress.
  • There were pacesetters throughout the race that rotated into and out of the event.  Pacesetters affect wind resistance.
  • There was a pace car involved that too – allegedly – provided wind resistance.
  • Bicyclists handed fluids to Kipchoge during the event; he was not required to pick up bottles of fluid from hydration stations as would be the case in a “normal marathon”.
  • Kipchoge also wore custom-made Nike shoes that are not generally available to all runners – and that evidently is a marathon racing “no-no”.

Looking at the list of “irregularities”, I can understand why this specific time might not be recognized as a world record.  At the same time, this event has provided runners with two important things:

  • The 2-hour barrier – thought to be unachievable just as was the 4-minute mile – can be broken.
  • The time of this event – 1:59:40 – can now be a target for other marathoners to focus upon.

We can recognize the “irregularities” here, but that ought not obscure the fact that Eliud Kipchoge did something that was remarkable and important regarding marathon running.

Changing the subject … I guess I just do not understand why MLB teams change their strategies so drastically once it becomes “playoff time”.  Most teams do it; however, let me focus on the Dodgers here.  In 2019, the Dodgers won 106 games; that was the most in the NL by a significant margin and they did that without ever using Clayton Kershaw as a relief pitcher.  So, why switch strategy?

Here is a summary of the history of Clayton Kershaw as a relief pitcher in playoff situations:

  • 2008 playoffs  2 relief appearances Dodgers lost the series
  • 2009 playoffs  1 relief appearance Dodgers lost the series
  • 2016 playoffs 1 relief appearance  Dodgers won the series
  • 2017 playoffs  1 relief appearance Dodgers lost the series
  • 2018 playoffs  1 relief appearance Dodgers won that series
  • 2019 playoffs  1 relief appearance Dodgers lost that series.

In summary, 7 relief appearances and the team record for series where they occurred is 2-4.  I know this is not “Advanced Analytics”, but what is there in these numbers that says it is a good idea to continue to do this?

Finally, here are two Tweets from humor writer, Brad Dickson:

“In 2018 an all-time record number of STDs were diagnosed in the U.S. Hey, I think it’s just nice to see kids turning off the video games and getting out of the house.”

And …

“A record number of STDs were diagnosed in the U.S. in 2018. I blame the super crowded Southwest Airlines boarding policy.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Football Friday 10/11/19

Chuck Todd tells us:

“If it’s Sunday, it’s Meet The Press”

In this little backwater of the Internet:

  • If it’s Friday in the Fall, it’s Football Friday. 

I said last week that I had no strong feelings about the games in the Six-Pack and the results were in consonance with that statement.  Overall, the Six-Pack went 3-3.  Here are the cumulative stats to date:

  • Overall, the Six-Pack record is 17-7
  • College games are 8-1
  • NFL games are 9-6

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The Linfield College Wildcats beat Pacific University last week 52-14 giving the Wildcats a 2-1 record for the 2019 season.  All three of Linfield’s games to data have been on the road.  Tomorrow is Homecoming weekend for Linfield – for the alumni and for the football team.  The University of Puget Sound will be the opponent this week and the Loggers bring a 3-1 record to the kickoff.  This is a Northwest Conference game.  Go Wildcats!

As of this morning, 16 Division 1-A college football teams remain unbeaten. As was the case last week, at least one of those teams will suffer a loss this week when unbeaten Florida and unbeaten LSU face each other.  Two other undefeated teams have worthy opponents this week; Minnesota hosts Nebraska and Wake Forest hosts Louisville.

As of this morning there are still 3 winless teams in Division 1-A.   Akron, New Mexico State and Rice have yet to come out winners.

Wisconsin is one of the undefeated teams this year and the combined score in all of Wisconsin’s games is a staggering 217-29.  As lopsided as that score looks, consider that 14 of the 29 points surrendered by the Wisconsin defense came in “garbage time” to Michigan after Wisconsin had run out to a 35-0 lead.  Wisconsin leads the nation in scoring defense giving up 5.8 points per game.  Four other teams are giving up fewer than 10 points per game.

At the other end of the stick, the UMass defense is the most porous one in the country allowing 46.7 points per game Three other teams are yielding 40 or more points per game.

The scoring leader in college football so far is LSU – and that is not the “football mode” one normally associates with LSU.  The Tigers average 54.6 points per game.

Three teams have had so much difficulty scoring that they average fewer than 15 points per game.  They are Bowling Green, Northwestern and – – at the bottom of the list – – Rutgers which averages 14.2 points per game.

Speaking of Rutgers…  It had been fairly well established that Maryland only looks like a powerhouse team when it is playing an opponent that is “mediocre at best” and that Maryland can be embarrassed by good teams.  Last week, Maryland beat Rutgers 48-7. Put your own label on Rutgers here…

In another Big-10 blowout, Penn State beat Purdue 35-7.  Purdue was missing its starting QB and its best WR for the game; the Boilermakers never had a chance here.  The Penn State defense loaded up to stop the run and did so most effectively holding Purdue to minus-30 yards rushing for the game and to a total of 93 yards on offense.

Minnesota remained unbeaten for the season trouncing Illinois 40-17.  This was one of the Six-Pack losers last week.

Michigan beat Iowa 10-3 last week in a game that turned the clock back to the 1940s…

USF beat UConn last week 48-22.  Both coaches here are on a hot seat – – but Charlie Strong at USF really needed this win.  USF had been on a massive losing streak against Division 1-A opponents that went back to the middle of last season; patience had begun to wear thin.  On the other hand, Randy Edsall may be safe for a strange reason.  UConn is leaving the AAC next season with no certainty as to what the future of UConn football might be.  Therefore, it might be difficult to attract a replacement for Edsall who would bring a résumé superior to Joe Flabeetz.

In a battle of unbeatens, Florida beat Auburn 24-13.  Both defenses played very well; Florida’s defense was dominant intercepting 3 passes and harassing Auburn QB, Bo Nix for the entire game.  Florida RB, Lamical Perine, had 130 yards rushing including an 88-yard TD scamper.  Florida fumbled the ball away 4 times in the game and still won…

In another SEC game last week, Georgia pounded Tennessee 43-14.  The game was still within hailing distance at halftime but the Vols were shut out in the second half.  Here is how the Tennessee offense worked in the second half:

  1. Three-and-out
  2. Three-and-out
  3. INT
  4. Three-and-out
  5. Fumble – – scooped and a score for Georgia

Tennessee coach, Jeremy Pruitt, is simultaneously on a hot seat and on thin ice – – and that is not a “happy place” …

Ole Miss beat Vandy 31-6 last week.  The Rebels simply ran the ball down the Commodores’ throat all day long:

  • Ole Miss total rushing yards = 415
  • All four TDs by Ole Miss came on the ground.  The shortest TD run was 24 yards; the longest TD run was 84 yards.
  • Vandy ranks 112th in the country in rushing defense allowing opponents an average of 211.2 yards per game.

Two weeks ago, UMass won a football game.  Not being able to stand prosperity, the Minutemen reverted to form last week losing to Florida International – – not to be confused with any team that might be considered even semi-seriously as a good football team.

SMU remained unbeaten beating Tulsa 43-37 in triple OT last week – – and it took a miracle comeback to make that happen.  The Mustangs trailed 30-9 at the end of three quarters but rallied to force OT and eventually get the win.  SMU is ranked in the Top 25 this week for the first time since 1982 – – which was before the NCAA imposed “The Death Penalty” on SMU football.  Tulsa missed 3 FGs and a PAT in last week’s game.  Maybe this is SMU’s year…?

In Big-12 action, Baylor remained undefeated with a convincing road win over K-State 31-12.

I said last week that Texas might find itself in a “trap game” with West Virginia if it was looking ahead to this week’s Red River Showdown with Oklahoma.  The Longhorns were outgained on the field and this was a 1-score game well into the 4th quarter.  Nonetheless, Texas won by 11 points as a 10.5-point favorite; that means the big money boys in Austin are happy – – even though they had to sweat it out to the very end.

Oklahoma may too have had some “look-ahead issues” last week, but the Sooners did not have as stout an opponent as Texas did.  Oklahoma beat Kansas 45-20.

Cincy beat UCF 27-24.  With a second loss pinned on UCF, there is little reason to listen to any arguments about the Golden Knights deserving something better than a Group 5 invitation to a New Year’s Day Bowl Game.  So, who will be the Group 5 darling for 2019?

  • Cincy has one loss – to Ohio State and there is no shame in that.
  • SMU is undefeated so far.  [Aside:  Cincy and SMU could meet in the AAC Championship Game on December 7.]
  • Boise State is undefeated so far.
  • Appalachian State is undefeated so far…

VA Tech beat Miami 42-35 last week.  The Hurricanes outgained the Hokies by 226 yards for the game and still lost.  Tech led comfortably at halftime 28-7 but Miami rallied to make a game of it and actually tied the score at 35 apiece in the 4th quarter.

Oregon beat Cal 17-7 last week.  I had Cal + 18 points in the Six-Pack last week and the Cal defense did not allow Oregon to score 18 points.  Thank you to the Cal defense…

Another team that seems unable to stand prosperity would be UCLA.  After its miracle comeback to beat Washington State, the Bruins have reverted to losing ways.  Last week, UCLA lost to Oregon State – a traditional PAC-12 bottom feeder.  The game was closer on the field than it was on the scoreboard.  UCLA gained 478 yards on offense; Oregon State gained 424 yards on offense.  However, on the scoreboard Oregon State prevailed 48-31.

  • Oregon State QB, Jake Luton threw 5 TD passes here
  • Oregon State WR, Isaiah Hodgins caught 10 passes.  Three were for TDs.

 

College Games this Week:

 

(Fri Nite) Virginia at Miami – 2 (43.5):  I have exactly no idea why Miami is favored in this game…

Rutgers at Indiana – 28 (50):  Rutgers lost to Maryland last week by 41 points and is now a 4 TD underdog to “decidedly-mediocre” Indiana.

Michigan – 23 at Illinois (49):  Michigan averages 28 points per game so far this year; they have scored 140 points in 5 games.  However, 92 of those points came in two games against Rutgers and Middle Tennessee State.  In the other 3 games against real opposition, Michigan has averaged only 16 points per game.  Look at the spread here and ask yourself how the oddsmaker categorizes Illinois…

Oklahoma – 10.5 vs. Texas (76):  Believe it or not, the Red River Shootout is not the Game of the Week this year.  Normally, this game is the football focal point for the weekend.  Both QBs get mentioned as Heisman Trophy candidates, so I think the difference in this game will be the two defenses.  OU has the slightly better defense, but neither one is anything to write home about. The Sooners rank 82nd in the nation giving up 432 yards per game; Texas ranks 94th in the country giving up 448.3 yards per game.

Nebraska at Minnesota – 7.5 (50):  The Gophers strive to stay unbeaten here. If they win and go to 6-0, there is a distinct possibility that they will be 8-0 around Halloween time because their next to opponents are Rutgers and Maryland.  Nebraska QB, Adrian Martinez was not around at the end of last week’s game; he is an important part of the Husker offense; how well might he play here?

Hawaii at Boise St – 13.5 (60):  Boise State is undefeated, and they are always tough at home.  Hawaii has only lost once – – to Washington and they opened their season with two wins over PAC-12 schools.  I like the game to go OVER, so I’ll put that in this week’s Six-Pack.

Michigan St. at Wisconsin – 10.5 (40.5):  Sparty’s defense is very good; they held Ohio State under 40 points this year.  I am not being snarky here; if you think that is no big deal, consider that Michigan State is the only team to do that.  Oh, by the way, the 34 points that Ohio State managed to score is the most points allowed by Michigan State in 2 years.  Wisconsin is going to try to run the ball and then run it some more; this year, the Badgers could be called the Bludgeoners.  This should be a great game to watch…

Florida at LSU – 13.5 (56):  This game matches two Top 25 teams and both are undefeated.  That makes this the Game of the Week in college football.  As noted above, LSU leads the nation in scoring at 54.6 points per game.  Given the Total Line here, you can get a sense of how highly regarded the Florida defense is.  The Gators’ defense has 12 INTs so far this year and a total of 17 takeaways; they will need to keep up that level of stinginess to hang with LSU at home…

Alabama – 17 at Texas A&M (61):  The Aggies simply cannot allow this game to turn into a shoot-out; they do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with Bama.  Simply put:

  • Can the Aggies defense prevent that from happening?

You have to figure that Alabama will have an off day one of these games; might this be the one?

Army – 4 at W. Kentucky (43): The Cadets lost last week – meaning they should arrive at kickoff here even more intense than they normally are.  I’ll put Army to win and cover in this week’s Six-Pack.

USC at Notre Dame – 10.5 (60):  Here is another college football pairing that has enjoyed Game of the Week stature in previous years.  The theme for this game is “Fighting”:

  • You have the Fighting Irish who are Fighting to remain on the doorstep for the College Football Playoff.
  • On the other sideline, you have a head coach who is Fighting to keep his job as the villagers are busy assembling their torches and pitchforks.

USC gets its starting QB back for this game – – but that is probably not enough to win on the road in South Bend, IN.  I’ll put Notre Dame to win and cover in this week’s Six-Pack

Florida State at Clemson – 27 (59.5):  Twenty years ago, Florida State would have been a solid 27-point favorite over Clemson.  The worm has turned…

Penn State – 3.5 at Iowa (42):  Two solid defenses here…  Iowa gives up 351.2 yards per game; Penn State gives up 367.9 yards per game.  In losing to Michigan 10-3 last week, Iowa only gained 1 yard on the ground.  In beating Purdue last week 35-7, Penn State held the Boilermakers to minus-30 yards rushing.  This could be interesting…  This game starts a tough stretch for the Nittany Lions; after Iowa, they have Michigan and Michigan State on their dance card.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Recently, there have been several NFL players who have left teams either by holding out until free agency or talking their way out of town.

  • DJ Swearinger was released by the skins after he openly and directly criticized their defensive play calling.
  • Odell Beckham, Jr. made a sufficient pain of himself that the Giants unloaded him.
  • Antonio Brown – – no need to rehash all that stuff here
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick basically arranged for his own trade
  • Stefon Diggs is trying to talk his way out of Minnesota as we speak
  • LeVeon Bell left the Steelers for a bunch of reasons

I think Bell’s situation is the most interesting one on that list.  It seemed pretty clear that Bell had some “chemistry issues” with the coach(es) and/or some of the other players on the team.  In addition, there were clearly some financial issues mixed into the stew.  Recall that Bell sat out an entire season rather than signing a franchise tag and playing for a guaranteed $15M last year; in doing so, he earned his free agency and was able to select where he wanted to play and what kind of contract he wanted to sign.  He signed on with the Jets who have come out of the gate with an 0-4 record this year.

What I find interesting here is that LeVeon Bell has been quiet as a church mouse over the past month.  He has been a first team All-Pro twice in his career and he has been to the playoffs twice.  Nonetheless, here is how 2019 looks to him:

  • Bell is averaging 2.9 yards per carry – other than his rookie year, he has never been below 4.0 yards per carry.
  • Bell is averaging 6.1 yards per reception – for his 5 years in Pittsburgh, he averaged 8.3 yards per catch.

Bell has the contract he wants, and he is seemingly taking the team’s poor start – plus his diminished productivity calmly and quietly.  At some point later in this season, I am confident that he will answer some sort of query by saying that all he wants to do is win – or something long that line.  When that happens, I reserve the right to be skeptical.

I never purport to be able to read minds, but I think that LeVeon Bell wanted something more than the long-term contract he eventually got from the Jets.  I think he wanted to be just about anywhere other than in Pittsburgh in the Steelers’ organization for whatever were personal reasons.

The Seahawks beat the Rams 30-29 last week.  Something is not working with the Rams’ defense and I don’t know what it is.  That defense was a lot better last year; this year the Rams give up way too many plays that sustain drives.  That is very unusual for a defense coached by Wade Philips.  Russell Wilson was “held” to 266 yards passing here – – but he threw 4 TDs in the process.

The Colts upset the Chiefs 19-13 last week.  The Chiefs simply could not run the ball effectively all game.  Normally, that would play into the hands of the Chiefs – – having Mahomes throw the ball even more than normal; not last week.  Mahomes was harassed all game long and he suffered an ankle injury that hobbled him for much of the second half.  The Chiefs came into the game ranked 31st in the NFL in run defense; that came to haunt them in this game.  The Chiefs allowed the Colts to control the clock and to mount long drives.  The Colts gained 180 yards rushing in the game.  The Chiefs had the ball only 22:45. Here is a stat I ran across:

  • In the past 60 games where an NFL team has had less than 23 minutes time of possession, those teams have gone 6-54.

The Colts stand at 3-2 now and the next 6 games on their schedule could be very important ones.  This week they play an important division game against the Texans; on November 21, they will play the Texans again.  Sandwiched between those two important division games are:

  1. Vs. Broncos
  2. At Steelers
  3. Vs. Dolphins
  4. Vs. Jags

If the Colts can split with the Texans, they will be 8-3 around Thanksgiving.

The Packers beat the Cowboys 34-24.  The Packers had to go without WR Davante Adams for the game.  Not to worry, Aaron Jones shouldered the responsibility; he caught 7 passes and led the team in rushing with over 100 yards.  The Packers roared out to an early lead and the Cowboys pretty much resigned themselves to throwing the ball a lot more than they normally do.  Dak Prescott accumulated 463 yards passing in the game and Amari Cooper accounted for 226 of those yards.  However, 3 INTs by Prescott tarnished those gaudy stats.

The Ravens beat the Steelers 26-23 in OT.  This was a typical slugfest between these AFC North teams.  Mason Rudolph was knocked out (literally) in what was the scariest moment of the weekend.  The Steelers’ defense was uncharacteristically poor early in the season, but it seems to have found its groove over the past several games.

  • Three weeks ago, they forced 5 turnovers from the Niners – but lost the game.
  • Two weeks ago, they sacked Andy Dalton 8 times – and won the game
  • Last week, they sacked Lamar Jackson 5 times, held him to 161 yards passing and had 2 INTs – but lost the game in OT.

The Steelers record is 1-4.  If Mason Rudolph has to miss multiple games as he emerges from the concussion protocols, the Steelers’ season is cooked.  Even if Rudolph does not miss any time and comes back to play well, the Steelers have precious little wiggle room left as they seek a playoff slot.

The Pats beat the Skins 33-7.  The only surprise here is that the Skins led the game 7-0 in the first quarter on a 65-yard TD run by WR, Steve Sims, Jr.  That was the first time this year that the Pats had trailed in a game.  I suspect that Jay Gruden knew he was going to be fired after the game because he did not start Case Keenum at QB and – more importantly – he did not start Danny Boy Snyder’s favorite, Dwayne Haskins.  Instead, he started Colt McCoy; not surprisingly, that was not a sufficient jump start to the Skins’ offense to make the game competitive.  Here is an important stat from the game:

  • Skins had 11 third-down situations
  • Skins converted 1 of those 11 third-down situations.

Based on the few crowd shots I saw, I don’t know if the crowd was 50% Patriot fans as some have asserted but I did see LOTS of fans wearing either blue or white Patriots gear at the game.

  • [Aside:  Jay Gruden was summoned to a 5:00 AM meeting where he was fired.  If I am correct that he knew he was going to be fired and then got a message to show up at 5:00 AM, how cool would it have been for Jay Gruden to sleep in and show up at the park around 9:15AM?  If I were in that situation, that’s what I would have done…]

The Broncos beat the Chargers 20-13.  The Broncos won for the first time this year.  The Broncos’ defense had been less-than-successful in the first 4 games; however, last week they held Philip Rivers and the Chargers to 246 yards total offense.  Keenan Allen was the NFL’’s leading receiver after the first 4 games; however, last week he caught 4 passes for all of 18 yards.  On any given Sunday…

The Panthers beat the Jags 34-27 last week.  Gardner Minshew threw for 374 yards in the game but that was not enough.  The Jags defense just could not stop Christian McCaffrey who ran the ball for 172 yards and 2 TDs and who also caught 6 passes for 61 yards and another TD.  The Panthers’ Kyle Allen remains unbeaten as a starting QB…

The Cards beat the Bengals 26-23.  Someone had to get their first win of the season here; it turned out that the Cards were less bad.  The Bengals gave up 266 yards rushing – QB Kyler Murray accounted for 93 of those rushing yards.  Moreover, the Bengals defense was an “Equal Opportunity Sieve”; it also allowed the Cards to pass for 250 yards meaning the Cards total offense was 516 yards.  Look back at the score; the Cards gained 516 yards and won by a field goal.  Good luck replicating that…

Looking at the Bengals, it is fair to ask this question:

  • If they cannot beat the Cardinals at home, who can they beat on their schedule?

Well, they have a road game in December against the Jets – – but Sam Darnold is back this week from his bout with mononucleosis and the Jets have to be better with him under center than they have been with Luke Falk dealing the cards.  Also, the Bengals visit the Dolphins on December 22.  I did not bother to check out the rest of the NFL schedule for that week because I was confident that I had already stumbled across the Dog-Breath Game of the Week for that weekend.

The Bills beat the Titans 14-7 last week.  The Bills are now 4-1; their defense is strictly legit; count the Bills as serious playoff contenders in the AFC.  In this game, the Bills sacked Marcus Mariotta 5 times.  The Titans had 4 field goal attempts in the game and missed all 4 of them.  Two were from 50+ yards; the other two were chip shot attempts from less than 35 yards.  On Tuesday, the Titans cut kicker Cairo Santos and replaced him with Cody “Double-Doink” Parkey.

The Texans beat the Falcons 53-32.  Generally, the Texans are not a high scoring team – – but they lit up the scoreboard here.  Deshaun Watson finished with a perfect passer rating (158.3) for this game; Will Fuller caught 14 passes for 216 yards and 3 TDs here.  Houston had 592 total yards on offense and amassed 31 first downs on 67 plays.  Dan Quinn’s tenure in Atlanta may well be coming to an end.

The Vikes bet the Giants 28-10.  The Vikes’ defense was just too much for the Giants’ offense.  The Giant’s defense was not able to contain the Vikes’ run game meaning that Kirk Cousins had lots of time to pick out receivers and move the chains.  This game was never seriously in doubt.

The Saints beat the Bucs 31-24.  Even giving up 24 points, the Saints’ defense deserves praise here.  Mike Evans is the Bucs’ leading receiver and one of the best WRs in the league; he does not get the recognition he deserves because he plays in Tampa and because the Bucs lose too many games despite his performances.  Last week, the Saints’ defense shut him out; he did not catch a single pass in the game.  The Saints defense also sacked Jameis Winston 6 times.  The Saints are now 3-0 under Terry Bridgewater who threw 4 TD passes in this game.

The Raiders beat the Bears 24-21 in the NFL’s first “London Game” of the season.  The Raiders led 17-0 at the half and the Bears came back to take the lead for a while.  The Bears’ run game stalled against the Raiders’ defense and Chase Daniel was not able to take control of the game by himself.

The Eagles beat the Jets 31-6.  This was an ugly game.  The Eagles scored 2 defensive TDs and sacked Luke Falk 10 times.  The Eagles got a win they may well need for playoff consideration because the next 7 weeks look brutal.  The NFL’s schedule-maker did the Eagles’; no favors with this upcoming slate:

  • At Vikes,
  • At Cowboys,
  • Vs Bills,
  • Vs Bears,
  • BYE,
  • Vs Pats
  • Vs Seahawks.

OUCH!

The Jets without Sam Darnold and trying to make do with their #3 QB are uninteresting at best.  The Jets did score an offensive TD in this game; that is the good news.  Here is the bad news:  That was the first offensive TD the Jets scored since Week 1 against the Bills.

The Niners beat the Browns 31-3 on MNF.  This was a total throttling.  Baker Mayfield was – not to put too fine a point on it – awful.  He was 8-22 for 100 yards with 2 INTs and 2 fumbles – – one of which was a lost fumble.  Compare his stats to Luke Falk in Eagles game…  Falk was 15-26 for 120 yards 2 INTs and a lost fumble.

Those are comparable stats, but few people have thought to compare Mayfield and Falk as NFL QBs of the future.

  • Mayfield was the Heisman Award winner and overall #`1 pick in the 2018 draft.
  • Falk was taken 199th overall in the sixth round of the 2018 draft.  [Aside: Coincidentally, Tom Brady was also the 199th pick in his college draft.]
  • Obviously, Mayfield was the first QB taken in the 2018 draft.
  • Falk was the 9th QB taken in the 2018 draft
  • Falk was drafted by the Titans and cut by the Titans in 2018.  He signed on with the Dolphins in 2019 and was cut by the Dolphins before signing on to the Jets’ practice squad.

Last week, those two QBs with hugely different pedigrees performed comparably.

 

NFL Games This Week:

 

Four teams have their BYE Week this weekend:

  1. The Bills are 4-1 on the strength of an outstanding defense.  They could use the extra week to goose up their offense a bit.
  2. The Bears are also being carried by their defense.  Their offense does not need a mere goosing up; it needs a 10 EEE suppository.
  3. The Colts are playing very well despite the retirement of Andrew Luck.  After years of scorn, the Colts’ OL has performed extremely well so far this year.
  4. The Raiders got the entire week off from coach Jon Gruden as a reward for their performance in London beating the Bears.

Sam Darnold returns to action for the Jets this week; his spleen has been declared “back to normal”.  If the Jets were to win this weekend, I suspect that coach Adam Gase would give a game ball to Sam Darnold’s spleen.

I have given this proposition a lot of thought recently.  What is the most dysfunctional entity in Washington DC?

  • The US Congress
  • Danny Boy Snyder’s football team?

You make the call…

Carolina – 2.5  vs. Tampa Bay  (47.5) [Game is in London]:  Since the Bucs won the first meeting of these teams in Week 2, this is an important game in the NFC South; a win by the Bucs here will give them the first tiebreaker with the Panthers should things come to that.  Back in Week 2, Cam Newton was the Panthers’ QB and he was playing hurt; you could see it through your TV screen.  I am not yet ready to say that Kyle Allen is as good as a healthy Cam Newton, but he is better than the hurting Cam Newton that was on the field back then.

Cincy at Baltimore – 11 (48):  This spread is all over the place; I can find it as low as 10.5 points this morning and as high as 12 points.  Last week, the Ravens beat the Steelers in an OT game that was physical/in-your-face football.  By comparison, they should have much less difficulty this week.

Seattle – 1.5 at Cleveland (46):  The spread opened the week with the Browns as a 2.5-point favorite; that did not last long.  The Seahawks have been off for 10 days; the Browns are working on a short week after losing to Niners in SF on Monday night.  Russell Wilson is putting together a foundation for an MVP award this year; I certainly did not see anything from the Browns’ defense on Monday that tells me they can derail him.  The biggest issue here is that the Seahawks are traditionally a far better team at home than on the road.  I’ll put the Seahawks to win and cover in this week’s Six-Pack.

Houston at KC – 4 (55):  The spread here opened with the Chiefs as 7.5-point favorites.  The fact that the line moved down so much tells me that folks expect Patrick Mahomes to be significantly less than 100% on his injured ankle this week.  Notwithstanding that he may not be at full capacity on Sunday, I don’t see either defense here putting the clamps on the other guys.

New Orleans at Jax – 1.5 (43.5):  Excuse me, but I do not know why the Jags are favored here.  I’ll put the Saints plus the points in this week’s Six-Pack.

Philly at Minnesota – 3 (44):  This is a big game for both teams – especially the Eagles when you consider their upcoming schedule as outlined above.  The Vikes are even with the Bears and chasing the Packers in the NFC North – and the Lions are still a factor in that race.  Translation:  The Vikes can’t afford to lose this game either.  You will be beaten to death this weekend by the talking heads with the stat that Kirk Cousins is only 5-27 over his career playing against an opponent with a winning record – and the Eagles are 3-2 coming to this kickoff. The key to this game is for the Eagles to stop Dalvin Cook; the Vikes are eminently beatable if he is held in check.

Washington – 3 at Miami (42):  With no hesitation at all, I anoint this game as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  One of these teams will emerge from the ranks of the winless about 3 hours after the kickoff.  Whichever team that is, there will be little joy in the hometown; the fans of these teams know they both stink.  I am convinced that forcing prisoners of war to spend 3 hours watching this grease fire of a game would be a violation of the Geneva Convention.  The Dolphins give up just over 40 points per game; the Skins have given up 30+ points in 4 of their 5 games.  If that sounds like an OVER bet to you, take a moment and look at the offensive outputs for these squads.  Avoid this game like the plague.  On Wed. the Dolphins announced that Josh Rosen will be their starting QB for the rest of the season; what did he do to deserve that?

SF at Rams – 3.5 (50.5):  This is the Game of the Week.  It is a division game and when it is over, either the Niners will hold a 2.5 game lead over the Rams or the Rams will have closed the gap in the NFC West to half a game.  [Yes, I know; the Seahawks are also in that division and playing very well; I praised them up above.]  I think both offenses will find the end zones early and often.  Might it be that the team with final possession wins?  I think the total score could be in the neighborhood of 60 points, so I’ll put this game in the Six-Pack as an OVER selection.  The Niners have the opportunity to let the football world know they are “for real” in 2019 with a convincing win here.

Atlanta – 2 at Arizona (51.5):  The Total Line opened the week at 47 and has been rising all week.  I have to believe that if someone were setting a line on this game back in late August, the Falcons would have been a much bigger favorite; I certainly did not expect the Falcons to get to this game with only 1 win to their name.  These teams will field two bad defenses.  Here is the burning question:

  • Can either or both of these mediocre offenses take advantage?

Dallas – 7 at Jets (45):  The Cowboys seem to have shown the rest of the league how to beat the Cowboys over the past couple of weeks.  The formula is to stop the Cowboys’ run game and force them to try to win the game through the air.  I don’t think that is going to happen here.  The most interesting aspect of this game would be to watch to see how the Jets’ offense looks with Sam Darnold back at the wheel.

Tennessee at Denver – 2 (41):  The spread opened the week with the Titans as 2-point favorites but that has flipped as the week wore on.  Last week, these teams went in opposite directions:

  • The Broncos got their first win of the season
  • The Titans threw up on their shoes.

Home field means a lot to the Broncos; perhaps that is a big factor in the swing in the spread line over the week?

(Sun Nite) Pittsburgh at Chargers – 6.5 (41):  When someone asked Mike Tomlin for a comment regarding the rumors that the Skins might try to trade for him to be the Skins’ coach next year, Tomlin’s replay was along these lines:

  • I don’t pay attention that that stuff.  I have to prepare to play a team with a Hall of Fame QB and I have to start my 3rd string QB.  That’s all I think about.

Even if that is not true, big props to Mike Tomlin for shutting that nonsense down – – for the moment.  The best news for the Steelers 3rd string QB is that the game will be played in the Chargers’ bandbox of a stadium and that there will be a heavy representation of Steeler fans in the audience.

(Mon Nite) Detroit at Green Bay – 4 (47):  The Lions had their BYE Week last week, so they should be well-prepared for this game.  The Packers had a relatively easy time of it beating the Cowboys last week.  I think this will be a low scoring/defensive struggle notwithstanding the playmaking skills of both Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford.

Let me review this week’s Six-Pack:

  • Boise St./Hawaii OVER 60
  • Army – 4
  • Notre Dame – 10.5
  • Seahawks – 1.5
  • Saints +1.5
  • Niners/Rams OVER 50.5

Finally, here is a tidbit from Bob Molinaro in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“What are the odds? Interim head coach Bill Callahan has now succeeded both Gruden brothers. In 2002, he took over for Jon in Oakland and led the Raiders to the Super Bowl. It’s not a scenario that will be repeated in Washington.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………