The NFL regular season began last night with a game between two teams that have high hopes for the 2026 season. As is often the case, those high hopes from last night require a look at the other end of the spectrum – – the teams whose hopes must be tempered significantly for reasons of reality. There are two simultaneous NFL “races” going on in the regular season:
- The race to the Super Bowl and the Lombardi Trophy
- The race to the Overall #1 Pick in the NFL Draft next year.
To maintain my “Curmudgeon Cred” let me examine that second race – – the one that does not get much attention until late December. In my NFL Preseason Analysis, I identified the Arizona Cardinals as the team that will have the worst regular season record; I stand by that prediction but must acknowledge that there are other teams that could sink to the bottom. Here is my list of six teams that have a realistic chance to be “on the clock” for their Draft pick as most fans are focused on the start of the playoffs.
Interestingly, the Cards are the only NFC team on my list; the other five teams are all in the AFC. I will list them here alphabetically:
- Browns: The trade of Myles Garrett to the Rams back in the Spring leads me to believe the Browns’ braintrust knows this roster is deficient. The defense is OK and because the defense is OK, I don’t really think the Browns will have the worst record in the league, but the offense has nothing but question marks. And the biggest question marks are at the most important position – – Quarterback. The Browns only own 5 games in 2025 and have not significantly improved; so, they are on this list because the bottom just might fall out.
- Cards: The Cards have a few upper crust players in Budda Baker, Marvin Harrison, Jr., Jeremiyah Love and Trey McBride, but those guys are not nearly enough to carry the Cards against the rest of the NFC West which is stacked with talent and top-notch coaching. I doubt the Cards will be less than a TD underdog in all 6 of their divisional games; outside the division, the Cards draw the Lions, Chargers, Broncos, Cowboys, Chiefs and Eagles. Ouch!
- Dolphins: The Dolphins have almost $100M in dead cap money this year. The salary cap this year is $301M; so, the Dolphins are playing with only two-thirds of useable salary cap. That means the team is overloaded with young/rookie players just to fit 63 folks into that collapsed cap space. The Dolphins have a rookie head coach who did well at the college level; so, if you are looking for a bright spot there, he has had success coaching young football players. The schedule makes the Dolphins play all the NFC North teams and all the AFC West teams. I foresee lots of empty seats in Hard Rock Stadium this year.
- Jets: No exposition on NFL futility would be complete without a look at the NY Jets. After winning only 3 games last season, the Jets added some recognizable names to the roster in the offseason – – but they are recognizable because they have all been around for a long time. Demario Davis, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith have all had periods of quality play, but it is not clear that any of them are still capable of their peak performances of the past. One factor that could assure the Jets staying out of the race for the worst record in 2026 is the schedule. The Jets play the Dolphins (twice), Titans, Browns, Raiders and the Cards. They have 6 games against teams on this list.
- Raiders: I doubt the Raiders belong here, but this franchise has a propensity to screw things up ever since they lost the Super Bowl to the Buccaneers in 2002. The Raiders seem to have their “QB of the Future”, and they are doing something smart with him – – letting him watch and learn about NFL play before throwing him into harm’s way. Kirk Cousins is an upgrade at QB to the extent that he should cause defenses to provide a bit more running room for Ashton Jeanty in 2026 as compared to 2025. They say that football games are won in the trenches, and the Raiders’ OL and DL are hardly great, but the Raiders have the best “QB situation” of all the teams listed here by a wide margin.
- Titans: Do you believe in Cam Ward? That is the essential question for the Titans now and in the near future. The coaching change in Tennessee is a major upgrade; Robert Saleh’s “failure” with the Jets was no more his fault than it was “Fireman Ed’s” fault, and Brain Daboll has had success as an OC in the league as well. On defense, Jeffrey Simmons is a bellwether on the inside DL, but there is not a lot else to feel excited about.
So, there are my “Sloppy Six” teams for 2026 and interestingly two games on the Week 1 dance card involves head-to-head games among the “Sloppy Six”:
- Jets at Titans – 1 (38.5)
- Dolphins at Raiders – 3 (40.5)
At least two of the “Sloppy Six” will emerge as “undefeated” at the end of Week 1. Let the games begin …
Finally, this from Bill Parcells:
“I’ll call somebody ‘dumb’ or ‘stupid’ if they make a dumb or stupid play. I don’t know any other word for it, and if they don’t like the word, that’s too bad.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………