College Football Preview – 2026

For newcomers to these rants at this time of the year, let me explain what this specific rant is all about.  I like college football and will spend a lot of time in the coming months watching it and reading about it and listening to others talk about it.  What I am trying to do here is point out some of the things that I think will be interesting over the course of the upcoming season.  That’s really all there is.

This is not “inside information”; I have no “sources”; this is just “stuff I find interesting” – – and I hope you will too.

There is another difference between this pre-season overview and most of the others you can find anywhere and everywhere on the Internet.  Come January/February of 2027, I will dig this exposition out of memory and grade myself on my perspicacity – – or lack thereof.  Those “post-mortem” reviews usually provide for some belly laughs as we all contemplate how wrong I was.

So let me begin with a qualified listing of College Football Coaches on A Hot Seat in 2026.  It is a qualified list because I will only consider coaches in “big programs” that are recognizable; I will not pretend to know which of the coaches in the Sun Belt Conference or in C-USA might be “coaching for their jobs” in 2026.  In alphabetical order, here are 8 coaches whose teams need to show significant improvement in 2026 if those coaches are to keep their jobs:

1. Bill Belichick – UNC:   Last year was inglorious for UNC football to say the least.  Now Belichick’s hand-picked “Football GM” is on admin leave based on some sort of HR allegation.  No losing season record will be acceptable here; if you are a Tar Heel fan/alum you might not want to check the schedule for 2026; it is foreboding to say the least.
2. Kalen DeBoer – Alabama:  He has been at Alabama for two seasons so far and the Crimson Tide has lost 4 games in each of those two seasons.  Should that happen again, I suspect that the money-boys in and around Tuscaloosa will find a way to cough up the estimated $50M it will take to buy out Coach DeBoer.
3. Luke Fickell – Wisconsin:  No national championship aspirations here, but I am surprised he was not fired at the end of last season.  In his three seasons at Wisconsin, the cumulative record is 16-21 but the worse part of that is that the team has won fewer games in every season since Fickell took over the program.  Moreover, in the 8 losses last year, Wisconsin scored 10 points or fewer in all 8 of them.  The buyout number here is about $20M which is peanuts in that economic niche.
4. Mike Locksley – Maryland:  This will be Locksley’s 8^th season at the helm of the football program.  From 2021-2023, the Terps eked out winning records and won a bowl game in each year.  However, the Terps have gone 4-8 in each of the last two seasons and 1-8 in conference games both years.  His buyout number is less than $15M; so, this could well be a “put-up or shut-up” proposition for Mike Locksley.
5. Mike Norvell – Florida St.:  There is a recollection of Seminoles’ teams being serious contenders for national championships.  In 2023 Norvell’s Seminoles went 13-1 only to lose to Texas in a bowl game.  Since 2023, however, Florida St. is 7-17.  I believe his buyout is $51M; if he has another losing season, my guess is that the money-folks in Tallahassee will send him packing.
6. Bill O’Brien – BC:  In 2024 – – his first year as head coach- – , O’ Brien’s Eagles posted a 7-6 record despite losing in the Pinstripe Bowl.  That record was as good as it gets for BC football since 2009 when the Eagles went 8-5; that was fine until last season when BC went 2-10 and 1-7 in conference games.  Reports say his buyout is only $11M meaning the Eagles had better be significantly improved in 2026 if the coach is to keep his job.
7. Deion Sanders – Colorado:  Forget all the bluster and recognize that even with a Heisman Trophy winner and a potential NFL starting QB, Colorado under Sanders’ guidance has a record of 16-21 and has lost its only bowl game appearance.  I think Sanders’ biggest element of job security is that Colorado is not a plum job that is highly sought after by other coaches.  Nonetheless, another losing record might convince some “Boulder Billionaires” that the bloom is off the rose there.
8. Dabo Swinney – Clemson:  I know; Swinney has won two national championships; but those were back in 2016 and 2018 which is prehistoric in the minds of Tigers’ fans who expect that level of accomplishment more frequently than not.  Last season’s record of 7-6 was the worst for the Tigers since 2010.  There will be lots of upset fanboys if the Tigers lose 6 games again in 2026, but it should take a bigger disaster than that in the upcoming season for Swinney to be fired.

            Before moving on, here is another reason why Dabo Swinney’s seat may be hotter than expected for a coach with his résumé at Clemson.  In the NFL Draft this April, teams there took five Clemson players in the first three rounds of the Draft and nine total players taken by the pros.  And that squad finished 2025 with a record of only 7-6.  I cannot be the only one to wonder how that could have been …

Oklahoma St has to win the “Portal Turnover Trophy” for 2026.  According to a report I read, the Cowboys said goodbye to 63 players who used the Portal to find playing time elsewhere and then added 42 players from elsewhere to join the team in Stillwater, OK.

Penn St. lost 49 players to the Transfer Portal but added 31 new ones via the same mechanism.  Many of the additions were transfers from Iowa St, where the new coach, Matt Campbell, was last season.  This will be interesting to watch because if this comes unraveled badly, I wonder how vociferously the Nittany Lions’ boosters will call for Coach Campbell’s head on a plate…

It is always interesting to look at college football schedules for quirks or soft spots or murderers’ rows.  If you look this year at the schedules for the weekend of November 7^th, you will see a heavy lineup of top shelf games:

• Alabama at LSU
• BYU at Utah – – the most underrated rivalry game in the sport
• Georgia at Ole Miss
• Miami at Notre Dame – – Convicts versus Catholics anyone?
• Oregon at Ohio State

If that does not get your adrenaline going, you probably should not read any more about college football here …

Indiana will have an interesting back-to-back pairing this year.  On October 17^th the Hoosiers will host Ohio St and then on October 24^th, the Hoosiers will go on the road to play Michigan.  Should be fun …

Iowa has a relatively easy schedule this year except for a three-week stretch that sees the Hawkeyes visit Michigan, then host Ohio State and then go on the road to Washington.

The Penn St. schedule is soft as a pillow for new coach Matt Campbell.  Out of conference games are against Marshall, Temple and Buffalo (not the Buffalo Bills), and in Big-10 games Penn State does not have to play Indiana, Ohio St or Oregon.

There will be something interesting to contemplate regarding TV audiences for college football games in 2026.  Last year, Indiana was “Cinderella”; this was the team that represented a “basketball school” and had never really been a serious football “powerhouse” in recent memory and all they did was run the table and win the national championship on the field against schools with more “pedigree” upon them.  Indiana will be “highlighted” more this year based on their status as defending national champs as should be the case; the question is this:

• Can Indiana football draw audiences without that “Cinderella narrative” in play?

The CFP Championship Game last year between Indiana and Miami drew an audience of 30.4 million viewers.  Obviously, regular season games will not draw nearly that number of eyeballs, but how will the audience numbers stack up.  I think that will be an interesting thing to see.

The PAC-12 imploded when the Big-10 and the Big-12 and the ACC poached all but two of the teams there.  Forget that; the PAC-12 is back starting this year; it may not be better than ever, but it will probably be a better brand of football than most of the other conferences outside the Power 4.

Eight teams will make up the conference in 2026; two of the teams are previous members of the PAC-12 – – Oregon State and Washington State.  There is one former Sun Belt team that has joined the conference – – Texas State.  And then there are five teams here from what used to be the Mountain West Conference:

1. Boise State
2. Colorado State
3. Fresno State
4. San Diego State
5. Utah State

Note that all eight schools are known as “Something-or-Other State”.  No other conference can make that claim; and don’t be a wet blanket and point out that three of the eight schools on the list of “Something-or-Other State” are cities and not states.

The reconstituted PAC-12 is a long way from claiming Power 4 status, but Boise State is a legitimate team and both Fresno State and San Diego State can put up a struggle against Power 4 opponents.  I am not sanguine that other conferences outside the Power 4 can make such a claim.

Don’t ask me why, but the MAC will add another new team this season.  In case you misremembered, UMass joined the conference in 2025 and proceeded to go 0-12 for the season and was the top seed in my imaginary SHOE Tournament last December.  [Aside:  More about that “tournament” in upcoming Football Friday rants.]  This year, the MAC – – most famous for its Tuesday and Wednesday night games in nearly empty stadiums in the month of November – – will welcome Sacramento State to the festivities.  UMass/Sacramento State on September 26^th and/or Kent State/Sacramento State on October 30^th should be interesting to no one outside the nuclear families of the participants.

College football does more than provide entertaining competition for its fans every weekend in the Fall/Winter season; college football develops and advances compelling storylines.  Even a casual college football fan will recognize the storyline surrounding Lane Kiffin’s move from Ole Miss to LSU; same goes for how successfully Indiana competes this year after its Cinderella season in 2025.  But here are three storylines that might not have jumped to the front of your consciousness just  yet:

1. North Dakota State will jump up from Division 1-AA to Division 1-A this year and compete in the reconstituted Mountain West Conference.  More than a few pundits think that the Bison will win the MWC outright in 2026.  That is an interesting storyline by itself.
2. Will Kyle Whittingham produce a powerhouse at Michigan given that he has never had a roster nearly as highly regarded as the one he will inherit there?  Or will all the off-the-field distractions in and around Ann Abor sabotage his efforts there?
3. Did Penn State improve the quality of its coaching cadre hiring Matt Campbell away from Iowa State or will James Franklin – – just down the road at Va Tech – – have the last laugh?

Out in Las Vegas, they post win totals for just about every team in every conference and the wager is very simple.  You bet the team to go OVER the win total or UNDER the win total.  So here are five predictions for the upcoming season:

• Iowa OVER 7.5 wins:  They have three tough games in a row in late September/early October (see above) but the rest of the schedule could be easy pickings if Iowa can only find a half-decent offense.
• Michigan St. OVER 3.5 wins:  This program has been in disarray for the last 4 seasons but the schedule this year under new head coach Pat Fitzgerald seems to have at least 4 or 5 games that are winnable.  Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, Rutgers, Toledo and Wisconsin are all beatable.
• Mississippi St. UNDER 5.5 wins:  I look at the schedule and I can’t count six wins for the Bulldogs; in fact, I only count three …
• UCLA OVER 5.5 wins.  This is a wager predicated on UCLA’s soft schedule for this year.  In the Big-10 they draw Maryland, Michigan St, Minnesota, Purdue and Wisconsin; out of conference they have Nevada.
• UNC UNDER 5.5 wins:  The schedule is brutal; I’ll give the Tar Heels wins over East Tennessee State, Syracuse and UConn; but I cannot count three more wins on that schedule.

And before I bring this missive to a merciful close, let me identify my “Sleeper Team” for 2026.  For the record, my “Sleeper Teams” for the past two years have both made it to bowl games and last year’s “Sleeper Team” (Georgia Tech) went 9-4 overall and 6-2 in conference.  This year, I will stay in the southeastern part of the country and label FLORIDA as my Sleeper Team for 2026.

• The Gators have had a losing record in four of the last five seasons.  That performance cost Billy Napier the coaching job in Gainesville, FL and ushered in a new era under Jon Sumrall.
• Sumrall has had 2 previous head coaching jobs at schools well below the level of Florida or any of the SEC schools.  Nevertheless, his record at Troy in two seasons was 23-4 and then his record at Tulane in two seasons was 20-8.
• Florida was 4-8 last year; I think the Gators can win 7 or 8 games in 2026.

Finally, these words from sports commentator, Clay Travis, seem appropriate as a way to close out this opus on college football:

“I’m not sure any sport lives off of the enthusiasm of its fans better than college football. It just brings a different element.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………