Football Friday 10/31/25

Most folks will consider today Halloween and think of “Trick-of-Treaters”.  Here is Curmudgeon Central we consider the possibility of going out with martini glasses in hand and venture forth as “Trick-or-Drinkers” – – and then we just forget about it.  The main focus around these parts today is Football Friday so let me get right on it.  Here is last week’s “Betting Bundle” result:

• Spreads and Totals:  2-4-0
• Season to Date:         14-23-1            Yuck!

And …

• Money Line Parlays: 1-2                   Profit/Loss = $0
• Season to Date:         8-13                 Profit = $164

The Linfield University Wildcats got back on the winning path last weekend defeating Pacific Lutheran by a score of 31-15.  The season record stands at 4-2 meaning the Wildcats are one win away from another winning season in football.  As a Division III school, Linfield plays a 9-game regular season schedule meaning that five wins is a winning season.  This week, Linfield plays host to the Pioneers of Lewis and Clark College; the Pioneers have a season record of 5-2 but have lost their last two games.  Go Wildcats!

My “sleeper team” for 2026 is Georgia Tech; the Yellowjackets extended their season record to 8-0 (5-0 in ACC conference games) with a 41-16 win over Syracuse.  As you might conclude from the score, Tech was in control of the game from start to finish.

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Brian Kelly was fired as the head coach at LSU after losing at home by 24 points to Texas A&M last weekend.  That was the third loss in 4 games for LSU, and it was more than the alums and boosters could take.  Kelly’s buyout is reported to be $53M but not paid out in a lump sum; nonetheless, $53M is a nice parting gift for a defrocked coach.

Kelly is not exactly a beloved figure in the world of college football; his departure from Notre Dame where he claimed he was leaving to go to a place where he could win a national championship had a hollow ring to it from the start.  His departure opens another major coaching job for the offseason in college football and one that would seem on the surface to be highly desirable.

Here is the good news:

• LSU is in the SEC and is one of the highly regarded teams in the SEC.
• There is a winning tradition at LSU.
• There must be some very rich alums because several outlets have reported that the entirety of Kelly’s $53M buyout will be funded by a single private donor.

Here is the bad news:

• The AD that hired Kelly also hired Kelly’s predecessor (Ed Orgeron) and had to fire Orgeron with buyout money due on Orgeron’s contract.
• The Governor of Louisiana has inserted himself into the coaching search – and by extension into the football program – announcing that the current AD will not be hiring the next football coach because the governor is not happy with how things are going in Baton Rouge.  He is specifically not happy about the contracts given to coaches that have such large buyout clauses in there.
• The fanbase has high expectations and gets very upset when those high expectations are not met.

Just this morning, I read that LSU has also fired the AD involved in all of this, Scott Woodward.  Interestingly, he too leaves LSU with a buyout owed to him except his is a paltry $6.3M.  Hiring a coach at a “top-shelf school” is never a simple process, but I think the LSU search process is going to prove to be interesting to watch – – from afar.  When politicians get involved, things never get simpler…

Those elements alone would make it interesting to follow the trajectory of the LSU coaching search starting in December.  But there is a bigger picture here as well; even before the coaching bloodletting that happens every year in late November/early December, there are a lot of quality openings available and there may not be as many highly desirable candidates for all those openings.  That tells me the Law of Supply and Demand might just make it extremely expensive to get a quality candidate to sign on the dotted line both at LSU and at some other schools.

Off the top of my head, here are some of the jobs that are sure to be available in another month, and a few others inserted that might also be vacated:

• Arkansas
• Auburn – maybe
• Florida
• Florida St. – – maybe
• LSU
• Oklahoma St.
• Penn St.
• Stanford
• UCLA
• Va Tech
• Wisconsin – maybe

There you have eleven potential openings at recognizable schools; if one of them “poaches” a head coach from another school – – say the rumor of Lane Kiffin leaving Ole Miss to go take the job at Florida comes true – – that does not reduce the list from eleven to ten because that would just substitute Ole Miss on the list above and take Florida off the list above.  My point is that I don’t think there are eleven top-shelf coaches who are either out of work or are laboring well beneath their coaching potential for those schools to sign up.

Let me compact the list above for a moment and consider only Florida, Penn St. and LSU – – the three schools on the list that have either won national championships recently or have been serious contenders for that honor.  Are there three names that leap to your mind to fill those jobs?

• Jimbo Fisher remains at loose ends drawing down his $75+M buyout from Texas A&M.  He has been in the arena – so to speak – of top-shelf college football before but has never delivered the goods.
• Jon Gruden says he is itching to get back on the sidelines.  He is 62 years old and his last interaction with college kids as a coach was in the 1980s as a position coach at a small college.  Also, the Bill Belichick Experience at UNC might make an AD nervous about hiring an “old NFL guy”.
• Urban Meyer is employed as a talking head on football programs and has not seemed all that excited about returning to the coaching ranks in the past couple of years.

            I think observing the college football game of Musical Chairs this year will be more interesting than it has been in recent years.  Get your popcorn ready…

How many unbeaten teams are left in college football this year?  There were 15 back on October 10^th; there were 6 as of last week; none of those 6 lost last week so the list remains:

1. BYU
2. Georgia Tech
3. Indiana
4. Navy
5. Ohio St.
6. Texas A&M

Here are some comments on a few of last week’s games; I’ll start with the SEC:

Ole Miss 34  Oklahoma 26:  This was the second loss of the season for the Sooners and both losses were to SEC opponents.  Ole Miss improved to 7-1 here and the Rebels are going to be favored in all the remaining games.  That win just might assure Ole Miss of a CFP slot.

Auburn 33  Arkansas 24:  That is two close losses in a row for Bobby Petrino in his audition for the head coaching job at Arkansas.  Meanwhile, maybe this win saved Hugh Freeze’s job at Auburn?

Alabama 29  S. Carolina 22:  The Gamecocks led 15-14 at the start of the 4^th quarter; Alabama needed to rally to stay unbeaten in SEC games here; the Tide’s only loss this year was in Week 1 to Florida St.

Vandy 17  Mizzou 10:  Both teams were 6-1 to start the game and both had a conference loss; Vandy is now one of 4 SEC teams with only one loss in conference.  Vandy will take on Texas – – another of the one conference loss teams – – this week in a game that might see Vandy getting serious attention from the CFP selectors.

Texas 45  Mississippi St. 38 (OT):  The Bulldogs are 4-4, but Texas had to score 24 points in the 4^th quarter to force OT here.  Mississippi St. has been in one-score games with Texas and with Tennessee and lost both.   Here is a stat I ran across when reading about this game:

• Division 1-A teams had lost 429 consecutive games when they trailed by 17 or more with 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter until this game.

Texas A&M 49  LSU 27: The Aggies remain undefeated for 2025 …  LSU led 18-14 at the half but collapsed in the 3^rd quarter giving up 21 points.  The Aggies’ defense held LSU to 60 yards rushing in the game.  That embarrassing loss led to the end of the Brian Kelly Era in Baton Rouge.

Tennessee 56  Kentucky 34:  The Vols have two losses in conference games.  There is a total of 6 teams in the SEC with one loss or no losses as of today; that will change as head-to-head games take place so Tennessee is not out of the picture entirely, but they will need help to get near the top of the heap.  A win this week over Oklahoma is essential.  Meanwhile, Kentucky is 2-5 for the season with all five losses coming in conference games.

Moving on to the Big-10:

Rutgers 27  Purdue 24:  Losing a Big-10 game at home against Rutgers should be embarrassing.

Indiana 56  UCLA 6:  This was a rout from the beginning; it was 35-3 at halftime.  The Hoosiers’ defense did the job here holding UCLA to 201 yards of offense and 1 for 11 on third-down conversions.

Oregon 21  Wisconsin 7:   After two shutouts in a row, the Badgers finally scored with 7:57 left in the 4^th quarter of this game.  The Wisconsin offense was miserable, gaining only 196 yards on offense for the day.

Iowa 41  Minnesota 3:  The Hawkeyes are 4-1 in Big-10 games and that one loss was to Indiana by only 5 points.  Iowa has this week off and will face Oregon a week after this.  Both Iowa and Oregon have one loss in Big-10 games; if Iowa were to win that game, the Hawkeyes could well be 10-2 at the end of the season and be seriously considered for the CFP.

And in Big-12 action:

BYU 41  Iowa St. 27:  The Cougars remain unbeaten in 2025.  They were road underdogs in this game but won convincingly.

Texas Tech 42  Oklahoma St. 0:  Tech is 7-1 this season.  Oklahoma St. continues on a miserable season arc.  The Cowboys are 1-7 for the year and have lost all 5 conference games on their schedule to date.  One of those losses came against Tulsa who lost last week to Temple (see below).

Cincy 41  Baylor 20:  Cincy is 7-1 for the season and 5-0 in conference games; the Bearcats are tied with BYU atop the Big-12 standings here.  The only loss on their record was in the opening week to Nebraska.   With last week’s win over Baylor, Cincy is now averaging 38.3 points per game.   Looking ahead, the Cincy/BYU game on November 22^nd should be a big one and it is in Cincy.

Houston 24  Arizona St. 16:  Houston is 7-1 this year.  That loss was a Big-12 game, but the rest of the Cougars’ schedule is not outrageously difficult.  Keep an eye on Houston …

Utah 53  Colorado 7:  This game got out of hand almost immediately.  The score at halftime was 43-0.

Now for two ACC games:

Wake Forest 13  SMU 12:  This was SMU’s first conference loss for 2025; the Mustangs have a total of 3 losses so the only way they get any interest from the CFP folks is for them to win the ACC Championship outright.  That will not be an easy task; two of their final four games are against teams ranked in the top 25.

Virginia 17  UNC 16 (OT):   Virginia is 7-1 and undefeated in ACC games and they should be favored in all four remaining games.  If they take care of business, they will play for the ACC Championship.  Meanwhile the Tar Heels’ record dropped to 2-5 (0-3 in conference) with this loss.

And now a few random games of interest to me:

Memphis 34  USF 31:  Memphis scored 17 points in the 4^th quarter to pull this one out.  Both teams were 6-1 at the start of the game and both aspired to be in the CFP as the “best team not in a Power-4 conference”.

Navy 42  FAU 32:  Navy remains unbeaten in 2025 and may need to be considered by the CFP selectors as the best team outside the Power 4…

Temple 38  Tulsa 37 (OT):  Remember Tulsa beat Oklahoma St. leading to the firing of Mike Gundy there.  That loss by the Cowboys looks even worse now than it did back on 19 September.  Tulsa is now 2-6 with losses to Temple, East Carolina and New Mexico St.  Tulsa’s only other win was over Abilene Christian – – a Division 1-AA team.

North Texas 54  UNC-Charlotte 20:  UNT is 7-1 this year and could be part of the CFP selection committee deliberations in December …

Central Michigan 38  UMass 13:  The Minutemen have yet to win a game in 2025.

South Alabama 38  Georgia St. 31:  Both teams were 1-6 at the kickoff.  Georgia St. is in the running for the Brothel Defense Award and a slot in the SHOE Tournament.

Delaware 31  Middle Tennessee St. 28:  This is Delaware’s first year in Division 1-A and their record so far is 4-3.  Congrats to the Fightin’ Blue Hens.  Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee St. is slogging through 2025 with a record of 1-7.

Here are the main contenders for the Brothel Defense Award in 2025:

• Sam Houston gives up 38.9 points per game
• UAB gives up 38.9 points per game
• Oklahoma St. gives up 38.9 points per game
• Georgia St. gives up 40.8 points per game.

              And here are the 12 teams I am starting to follow a bit more closely as they begin to show signs of sufficient ineptitude as to garner consideration for the SHOE Tournament:

• Boston College           1-7
• Colorado St.                2-6
• Georgia St.                  1-7
• Middle Tenn St.           1-7
• Nevada                        1-7
• Oklahoma St.              1-7
• Oregon St.                  1-7
• Sam Houston              0-7
• South Alabama           2-6
• UMass                         0-8
• UNC-Charlotte            1-7
• UTEP                          2-6

 

NCAA Games of Interest This Week:

 

I cannot find any games this week with outrageous spreads – – 5 TDs or more.  At least for the moment, the cupcake games are on the shelf.

I do note however that there are three really big games on the slate for this weekend between teams ranked in the Top 25.  Those games will be magnified in their importance because as of next week, the CFP mavens will start with their own Top 25 rankings and – – like it or not – – those are the only rankings that matter at all.  Here are the three big games that I will have some comment about below:

1. Vandy at Texas
2. Oklahoma at Tennessee
3. Cincy at Utah

Oklahoma at Tennessee – 2.5 (55.5):  This spread opened at minus-4.5 points and has been eroding all week long.  Both teams must have this game; a loss puts the Sooners to bed in terms of the SEC race and/or the CFP; the Vols are not in quite the same dire straits, but if they lose, they too will need divine intervention to contend for anything meaningful in the college football post season.

• Last week the Sooners faced a ranked Ole Miss team and lost.
• This week they face the Vols ranked at #14
• Next week, they visit #4 ranked Alabama
• Two weeks from now the Sooners are at home to face #19 Mizzou
• Three weeks from now Oklahoma hosts an unranked but talented LSU squad.

The Sooners have zero room for error. I think the Vols find a way to deal with the Oklahoma defensive line and if they do that, I think the Vols will win the game comfortably.  Give me Tennessee to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Wake Forest at Florida St. – 10 (51):  If Mike Norvell wants to keep his job, he will not have his Seminoles lose at home as a double-digit favorite.

Ga Tech – 5 at NC State (59):  My “sleeper team” takes another step toward the ACC Championship Game …

Penn St. at Ohio St. – 20.5 (44.5):  No one – – and I mean NO ONE – – back in August had this game as a 3 TD spread.  For the record, Ohio St. is minus-1500 on the Money Line.

Army at Air Force – 1 (49):  Service academy games tend to go down to the wire …

Vandy at Texas – 3 (47):  This is my College Game of the Week.  Vandy has this game and a game against ranked Tennessee in front of them.  Like Vandy, Texas has only one loss in conference so this game will elevate the winner in the SEC cadre and demote the loser.  Texas was thought to be one of the top two or three teams in the country back in August; that has not panned out in the least – – but a win here for the Longhorns would set up their upcoming games against Georgia (Nov. 15) and Texas A&M (Nov 28) as Games of the Week.  Here, give me Vandy plus those points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Cincy at Utah – 10 (54.5):  The Bearcats need this game to say unbeaten in Big-12 action.  The oddsmakers seem unimpressed with that need …

Washington St. – 3.5 at Oregon St. (47):  This is the only possible game this week for the PAC-2 – – which is actually the two least desirable football programs that used to be in the PAC-12.

Virginia – 6 at Cal (53):  That is a long trip for the Cavaliers, but they need the game to remain unbeaten and on track for the ACC Championship Game.

Texas Tech – 7 at K-St. (51):  Tech is still in the mix for a potential shot at the Big-12 Championship which confers status in the CFP; K-State is not mathematically out of it, but they need some miraculous interventions over the final few weeks of the season.

Miami – 11 at SMU (50.5):  SMU must have this game to remain relevant in 2025; Miami needs this game to get the losing taste out of its mouth.  This has lots of potential impacts on ACC standings.

West Virginia at Houston – 13 (48.5):  Rich Rodriguez “came home” to West Virginia this year and so far, the Mountaineers are 2-6 overall and 0-5 in Big-12 conference games.  That return home is about a meaningful as Welcome Back Kotter was.  I think the Mountaineers’ pain will continue here; I think Houston will dominate this week; I like Houston to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Kentucky at Auburn – 11 (45):  One of these teams will notch their first SEC victory of the season.  Hoo-Ray…

Mississippi St. at Arkansas – 4 (66):  Are the Bulldogs yet ready to win a close game instead of losing one? (See above)

Navy at North Texas – 7 (66): Navy has yet to lose in 2025 and they are a full touchdown underdog on the road here.

Oklahoma St. at Kansas – 24 (55.5):  Kansas being a 24-point favorite over any team other than the Alabama Asthmatic Institute is difficult for me to process.

USC – 6 at Nebraska (59):  Here are two teams lurking outside the Top 25.  They should produce an entertaining game this week.

Georgia – 7 vs Florida (50):  This game is in Jax and is billed as “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”.  The administration of “breathalyzers” to permit or deny admission to the stadium would make for some very strange TV shots of the “crowd” at the game.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The Vikings’ backup QB, Carson Wentz, is out for the rest of the season because he needs surgery to repair his non-throwing shoulder, but the rehab time is somewhere between 6 and 8 months depending on which report you choose to accept.  That puts the Vikes in a delicate situation.  Look, I am not going to try to argue that Carson Wentz is a misunderstood and misevaluated talent at QB; he is not.  However, his surgical need puts the Vikes in a delicate situation:

• Starting QB, JJ McCarthy missed all 17 games last season with an injury.
• He has also missed all but 2 games this year.
• In the 2 games he has started, he has played one great quarter and seven mediocre-to-miserable quarters of football.

So, what might the Vikes do if McCarthy starts over the next week or two and drops a colossal stinker or two on the record?  Well, with Wentz hors du combat, the backup for JJ McCarthy would be Max Brosmer and you would be excused if you might not know his full set of credentials.  He is a rookie who has appeared in two games this year when the outcome was well beyond doubt.  Brosmer is sort of a “local kid” having played in college at Minnesota.  McCarthy is slated to start the game with Brosmer as the #2 guy on the sidelines; will the Vikes seek to acquire more QB talent now or will they play wait-and-see with McCarthy before deciding how to deal with their QB issues over the offseason?

The Arizona Cards won their first two games right out of the box.  Since then, they have lost 5 games in a row and the total margin of loss for those 5 games has been 13 points.  If that trend continues through the end of the 2025 regular season, there will likely be stories of Cards; fans cutting themselves to bleed out when the season is over.  Should the Cards season involve a regression of the team to the mean, they could be poised to rise up and claim a playoff slot.  You make the call …

Last Monday night saw the Chiefs disembowel the Commanders.  So, here is how the Washington Post handled things on Tuesday morning.  Above the masthead on the Front Page, the Post declared:

“Commanders can’t keep up with Chiefs”

Folks, that is a great example of putting lipstick on a pig.  Yes, the score was 7-7 at halftime, but the reason for that was that Patrick Mahomes threw 2 INTs in the first half which stopped Chiefs’ offensive drives.  [Aside: One INT was a great play by Marshawn Lattimore; the other was purely a lucky deflection off Travis Kelce’s hands into Bobby Wagner’s hands.]  The Commanders’ offense was not doing much and the Commanders’ defense outside of those two plays was playing at a mediocre level.  In his mandatory halftime sideline interview, Andy Reid correctly noted that all the Chiefs needed to do was to clean up a couple of plays and things would be all right.  And was he ever right …

In the second half, the Chiefs did not give the ball away and the Commanders’ defense never stopped the Chiefs’ offense until it didn’t matter.  Here are the second half possessions by the Chiefs:

• 8 plays             80 yards          4:42     TD
• 8 plays             75 yards          4:45     TD
• 13 plays           109 yards        7:02     TD
• 8 plays            23 yards          4:30     PUNT
• 1 play              minus-2 yard   0:12   END OF GAME

At one point in the game, ESPN had a screen graphic that said the Chiefs had outgained the Commanders by more than 200 yards to that point.  At the end of the game the final tally was:

• Chiefs’ Total Offense = 432 yards
• Commanders Total Offense = 260 yards

This has nothing to do with “keeping up with the Chiefs”; this has everything to do with a porous Commanders’ defense and an offense that is not good enough to camouflage that weakness.

Last night, the Ravens exposed the Dolphins for the sub-standard team that they are.  In the first half, the Dolphins moved the ball seemingly at will between the 20 yardlines and then squandered scoring opportunities with uncanny certainty.  In the first half, the Dolphins outgained the Ravens 225 yards to 109 yards – – and the Dolphins trailed in the game 14-6.  I think the Dolphins team needs a reset desperately.  It will not be enough to replace the coaches and/or the GM; this team needs to figure out which members of this roster are worth taking into future battles because it seems clear to me that the entire Dolphins’ roster is deficient in talent and also in focused desire to win.  How did they win so convincingly last week?

And with that segue, let me turn to last week’s NFL games and some brief comments on those games.

Bills 40  Panthers 9:  There was total domination here; the score was 40-3 when the 4^th quarter began.  To put an exclamation point on the futility of the Panthers here, they scored a meaningless TD in that 4^th quarter and then proceeded to miss the PAT.  The Bills’ much-maligned defense showed up loud and proud in this game registering 7 QB sacks.

Ravens 30  Bears 16:  So much for the Bears’ 4-game winning streak …  It was a great week for the Ravens; they won, and all the other AFC North teams lost.  Tyler Huntley – – not Cooper Rush – – led the Ravens to the win and Lamar Jackson is rumored to be able to return in the next week or two.  [Aside: He returned against the Dolphins four days after last week’s win over the Bears.]  Do not count the Ravens out in the AFC North race.  I will not be shocked if the AFC North champ this year is 9-8-0 and that final record is well within reach of the Ravens if they get healthy and stay that way for the balance of the regular season.

Eagles 38  Giants 20: It was a good week for Eagles; they won and all the other NFC East teams lost.   Jalen Hurts threw 4 TD passes in the game and the Eagles had two running backs each gain over 100 yards in the contest.  Consider these stats:

• Eagles averaged 8.4 yards per rushing attempt in the game
• Jalen Hurts’ 4 TD passes came on 15 completions for only 179 yards
• Eagles outgained the Giants by 201 yards in the game.

Jaxson Dart is fun to watch, but he was over-matched in this game.

Chiefs 28  Commanders 7:  See commentary above …

Pats 32  Browns 13:  Myles Garrett must be asking himself, “WTF?”  Garrett recorded 5 sacks in the game, and the Browns were still blown out.  I am not surprised that the Pats’ defense held the Browns’ scoring down; I am surprised that the Pats were able to put 32 points up on that excellent Browns’ defense.

Dolphins 34  Falcons 10:  The Falcons should be ashamed of themselves.  As of today, the Falcons are playoff pretenders.  The Dolphins’ defense has not been stellar this season, but somehow, they held the Falcons to 31 yards rushing in the game.

Jets 39  Bengals 38:  The Bengals are another team that should be ashamed of themselves, and they too are now playoff pretenders.  They gave up 39 points and 502 yards of Total Offense to the 2025 version of the NY Jets; that should be grounds for a lawsuit where the club claws back the paychecks from all the defenders.   The Jets were trailing by 14 points with eight minutes left to play in the fourth quarter, but they pulled off the shocker after Breece Hall threw a game-winning touchdown pass [That is not a typo, Breece Hall threw a TD pass to put the Jets ahead with 1:54 left to play)].   Here is a stat I ran across at CBSSports.com:

• Bengals have scored 38+ points in four games in the last two years.
• Bengals’ record in those four games is 1-3-0.

Texans 26  Niners 15:  I guess the injury list finally became more of a burden than the Niners could bear.  The Texans’ defense was excellent – – as usual – – and the Texans’ offense was efficient and effective in the game – – as is not usual at all.

Bucs 23  Saints 3:  It was just another day at the office for the Bucs’ defense; it created 4 turnovers and sacked the QB 4 times and produced this win despite seeing the Bucs’ offense outgained by the lowly Saints.  This was a defense dominated game on both sides; the two teams combined to produce only 479 yards of Total Offense.  Saints’ rookie, Tyler Shough, got to see live NFL action for the first time here.  Here is Shough’s stat line:

• 17 of 30 for 128 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT

By the way, the Saints attempted 51 passes in the game and scored one field goal.  Perhaps that is because they tried to run the ball 15 times and only managed 48 yards rushing.

Broncos 44  Cowboys 24:  The Cowboys’ defense was sliced and diced from start to finish.  The Broncos averaged 6.4 yards per rush attempt.  Dak Prescott did not help the situation in this one; his passing total was 188 yards, and he threw 2 INTs.

Colts 38  Titans 14:  This game was never in doubt.  In case you had not noticed, this is the third loss in a row for the Titans by double digits and the Titans have had two ignominious streaks of that kind already this season.

Packers 35  Steelers 25:   The Steelers led 16-7 at the half but the Packers dominated the second half – – particularly the 4^th quarter where they scored 21 points.  Jordan Love led the way for the Packers throwing for 360 yards and 4 TDs.  It is now time to question the Steelers’ defense a bit.  Yes, they still lead their division, but they have given up 30+ points in 4 games this year before Halloween has arrived.  The adage holds that defense wins championships; the Packers’ defense needs to be more central to the team’s success than it has been so far in 2025.

 

Games This Week:

 

There are four teams enjoying a BYE Week this week:

• Browns:  Have they seen enough of Dillon Gabriel yet?  Could Shedeur Sanders be significantly worse?  The 2025 season is over for the Browns, and it is time for them to start thinking about the 26 and 27 and 28 seasons ahead…
• Bucs:  They appear to be on track for their fifth consecutive NFC South Division championship.  They have been hit hard by the injury bug but if they get well, they could be a tough out in the playoffs.
• Eagles:  They have a nice lead in their division, but they also have a brutal schedule ahead of them.  The Eagles do not dominate opponents; their record is 6-2-0 but their point differential is only +23.
• Jets:  Hey, they won a game last weekend and they cannot possibly lose a game this weekend.  As my grandfather was wont to say, “Thank God for small favors.”

            Before I get to the games specifically, there are three games this week with double-digit spreads and another one where the spread is 8.5 points – – sort of the moral equivalent of a double-digit spread.  In the NFL’s unceasing quest for parity, that is not something that the league wants to see out there in the open.  Just under 30% of this week’s slate of games have been deemed as blowouts by the oddsmakers.  The suits on Mahogany Row do not like that …

Bears – 2 at Bengals (51):  The Bears’ defense is battered; the Bengals’ defense is just brutal.  The question here is simple:

• Which defensive unit will be more noxious than the other?

Looking at the Total Line, the oddsmakers think that both defenses will be ineffective to put it politely.  The Bengals should be hugely embarrassed having lost at home to the Jets last week; how might that manifest itself?

Niners – 3 at Giants (49):  The Niners are beat up; someone somewhere has voodoo dolls of the Niners’ players and also has an abundance of needles to stick into those dolls.  I think this is going to be a defensive game, so I’ll take the game to stay UNDER the Total Line; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

Falcons at Pats – 5 (45):  The Falcons are one of those teams that is not very good but has the capacity to play excellently every once in a while.  Is this one of their excellent weeks?  Will they find a way to get the ball into Bijan Robinson’s hands more than 9 times?

Colts – 3 at Steelers (49.5):  No one has figured out how to stop the Colts this year; the Steelers’ defense is trying to live off the reputation in Pittsburgh of great defensive teams; that is not working.  The Steelers have lost two games in a row; the Colts have only lost once this year, but that loss was on the road.  I like this game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Panthers at Packers – 13 (44):  The good news for the Panthers is that Bryce Young will play this week.  The bad news is that this game is in Green Bay and the Packers’ defense is always loaded and locked to play there.  I never pick NFL games with double-digit spreads even though this one is tempting.  I think the Packers win this one comfortably.

Vikes at Lions – 8 (48):  The Lions are coming off their BYE Week; the Vikes are still looking for competent play at the QB position.  That is a fat number, but I think the Lions’ rested defense is going to make life miserable for JJ McCarthy.  I like the Lions to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Broncos at Texans – 2 (40):  I thought for a moment about this being the Game of the Week.  The Texans’ defense won the game for them last week; that unit can hold the Broncos’ offense down in this game.  The problem is that the Texans tepid offense will have plenty of difficulty dealing with the Broncos’ defense.  The Broncos lead the NFL with 35 sacks registered so far; the Texans’ OL is not their strongest unit; CJ Stroud may be running for his life here.  The game is important to both teams as they try for position in their divisions; the game is more important for the Texans who trail the Colts by 3.5 games this morning.

Chargers – 10.5 at Titans (43.5):  The Chargers have a history of blowing up as huge favorites.  Disgruntled fans have even invented a word for that behavior; they call it “Chargering”.  If the Chargers were to lose this game as double-digit favorites, I think Jim Harbaugh’s head would explode like one of those “bunker-buster bombs”.

Jags – 3 at Raiders (45):  The Jags have lost two games in a row and trail the Colts by 2.5 games; they cannot afford to lose to the lowly Raiders.  However, the Raiders are coming back off their BYE Week and could get both Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers back from injury here.  In addition, the week off was probably worthwhile respite time for Maxx Crosby who is clearly the best defender on the Raiders’ roster.  Neither of these QBs has delivered on pre-season expectations.  Here are some stats about the Jags if you are tempted to bet the favorite in this game:

• The Jags are 2-12-0 in their last 14 road games
• This might be a trap game for the Jags; they may be peeking ahead in the schedule to see the Texans next week.

In a week with lots of mediocre games, this one probably deserves to be the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Saints at Rams – 14 (44):  The Rams are tied for the lead in their division, so they need a win here.  The Saints need to see more of Tyler Shough at QB to determine if they have an asset on their hands or not.  This game should give both teams what they need…

Chiefs – 1 at Bills (52):  This is obviously the Game of the Week. It could well be an advance peek at teams that will meet in the AFC Playoffs down the road.  The Chiefs have won 3 games in a row; the Bills came off their BYE last week and demolished the Panthers.  Just sit back and enjoy this one…

(Sun Nite) Seahawks – 3 at Commanders (48):  Jayden Daniels is in; Terry McLauren is out.  If the Seahawks’ defense made the trip with the rest of the team, it could be a long night for the Commanders.  On the flip side, the Seahawks offense has been clicking this year, and the Commanders’ defense has shown to be “exploitable”.  Here is an interesting morsel:

• In 2025, the Seahawks are 3-0-0 on the road AND 3-0-0 against the spread in road games.

(Mon Nite) Cards at Cowboys – 2.5 (54):  The Cards had last week off and if that offense is rested and ready, it should score on the Cowboys’ pathetic defense.  And the Cowboys will score too.  Jerry-World might run out of fireworks by the third quarter in this one.  The Cards’ defense is decent; it gives up 79 yards per game less than the miserable Cowboys’ defense.  Is that enough to give the Cards an edge?

So let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Tennessee – 2.5 over Oklahoma
• Vandy +3 against Texas
• Houston – 13 over West Virginia
• Lions – 8 over Vikes
• Steelers/Colts OVER 49.5
• Niners Giants UNDER 49

And here are two Money Line Parlays just for fun:

• Ga Tech @ minus-210
• Minnesota @ minus-170
• Virginia @ minus-200           $100  wager to win $252

And …

• Broncos at +115
• Lions @ minus-470
• Chargers @ minus-500         $100 wager to win $213

Finally, let’s hear from Bill Walsh:

“Good talent with bad attitude equals bad talent.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………