College Football Preview – 2025

College football opens its season in less than two weeks.  On Saturday, August 23^rd at Noon Eastern Time, Iowa State and Kansas State will play in Dublin, Ireland; that will be the first of approximately 700 Division 1-AA football games for the 2025 season.  This game is a particularly attractive one for a season-opener.

• It is a conference game.
• Both teams appear to be contenders in the Big-12 this season.
• Both teams are ranked in the Pre-season Top 25 coaches’ poll.
• There is a “rivalry element” at work here; the match-up is known as “Farmageddon”.

The proximity of that kickoff suggests that it is time for my annual College Football Pre-Season Analysis.  Unlike the NFL Pre-Season offering here, this will be a one-off rant with far less specificity than for the pros.  Before getting into the substance here, let me make a few things clear:

• There are more than 130 Division 1-AA schools that play football.
• I cannot pretend to have anything specific to say about most of them; so, I won’t even try.
• In fact, I cannot confidently name all the teams in some of the minor conferences like C-USA.
• Ergo, much of what is here will be like an overview.

I’ll begin with an alphabetical list of some coaches who could find themselves on a hot seat this year:

1. Luke Fickell – Wisconsin:  The Badgers had been to a bowl game every year from 2002 until 2023.  Last year Wisconsin was 4-7.  They have a tough schedule this year – – see below, it may be the toughest in the conference – – but fans are not going to be happy with another 4-win season…
2. Hugh Freeze – Auburn:  He has been at Auburn for two years with a record of 11-14.  His predecessor there – Bryan Harsin – was there for two years and posted a record of 11-14.  Both coaches had conference records of 5-11 and both coaches took one team to a minor bowl game – – and then lost that minor bowl game.  ‘Nuff said…
3. Mike Gundy – Oklahoma State:  He has been the head coach in Stillwater, OK since 2005.  His teams have won or tied for the conference championships twice; he has taken the Cowboys to a bowl game in 18 of the 20 seasons he has been there.  However, in 2024 Oklahoma State posted an overall record of 3-9 and a conference record of 0-9.
4. Brian Kelly – LSU:  The Tigers will probably win at least 9 games this year, but Brian Kelly said he went there to win national championships and that sets the performance bar a lot higher than 9 or 10 wins.
5. Mike Norvell – Florida State:  This will be his 6^th season at the helm for the Seminoles.  His overall record there is 33-27; in 2023 the Seminoles were 13-1; in 2024, the Seminoles were 2-10.
6. Brent Venables –  Oklahoma:  His teams have been to bowl games in all three seasons he has been at Oklahoma, but in his first year in the SEC his conference record was 2-6 and the team overall record was 6-7. His overall record at OU is a piddling 22-17 – – not in line with the “glory days” of Sooner football.

            Last year, I identified Nebraska as my “sleeper team”; the Huskers made it to a bowl game.  This year, I will give you another “sleeper team” to look out for:

• Georgia Tech – ACC: After 3.5 sub-par seasons under Geoff Collins, the Yellow Jackets turned things over to Brent Key.  In Key’s first two full seasons there, the team has gone 7-6 and has gone to a bowl game both years.  Last year, it took 9 overtimes for Georgia to prevail over Georgia Tech and Tech has its starting QB back for another season.  I think Tech will be a tough out in 2025.

            I want to say something about schedules – and no, it is not about how SEC schools schedule too many cupcake games out of conference.  The expansion of the college conferences way beyond what they used to be makes for unbalanced scheduling.  For example:

• The ACC has 17 teams – – and Notre Dame as a part-time participant.
• The Big-12 has 16 teams
• The Big-10 has 18 teams
• The SEC has 16 teams

There is no way for conferences to produce a balanced schedule when they are that big.  And the unbalanced nature of the scheduling can put a sheen on a team with a gaudy record that may not be completely deserved.  Let me pick on Indiana from last season:

• The Hoosiers finished the regular season at 11-1 – – second in the Big 10 to Oregon – – and got an invitation to the CFP.
• Three of the eleven wins were out of conference against “less than fearsome opponents” – – Florida International, Western Illinois and UNC-Charlotte.
• In conference, Indiana did NOT face Oregon or Penn State or Illinois or Iowa.  Other than Ohio State, their conference foes all lost at least 5 games last year.
• In their CFP game against Notre Dame, they were outclassed.  Do not be fooled by the score of that game – – 27-17 – – the Hoosiers scored two late TDs that were meaningless.

There is no one to blame here; Indiana only played the teams that the schedule makers and the computers operated by the schedule makers put on the opposing sidelines.  But the fact that by chance Indiana got to play mediocre teams week by week produced an “11-1 team” that was not nearly as good as an 11-1 record might have suggested.  What is important is to realize that this thing that is called “Strength of Schedule” is important even if it cannot be measured/quantified nearly as accurately as one might want.

By the way, we saw that same thing happen several years ago when Liberty University finished its undefeated season and met Oregon in the CFP.  That game was painful to watch; it was almost as lopsided as would have been a game between Liberty and a high-school squad.

Having tried to make a case for using “Strength of Schedule” to diminish expectations for some teams with records that look enticing, let me switch to the opposite and say that there are a couple of teams this year that have what look to be very difficult schedules.  In this case, I think there are several teams whose records might make the teams look weaker than they really are.  Consider:

1. Arkansas:  The Razorbacks went 7-6 last season but their schedule for 2025 looks more difficult.  This year they will face Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU and Texas.
2. Florida:  The Gators surprised some folks finishing 8-5 in 2024.  The 2025 schedule is no walk in the park, however with LSU, Miami, Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee on tap.
3. Purdue:  Yes, I know; Purdue was awful in 2024 finishing the season at 1-11.  And this year, the schedule includes USC, Notre Dame, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington and Indiana.  The Boilermakers might finish 1-11 again even if they are a better team than last year’s team.
4. Wisconsin:  This schedule is part of the reason I put Luke Fickell on the hot seat list above.  The Badgers get to face Miami, Alabama, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, Oregon, Washington and Indiana.  Ouch … !

            I used Indiana above as an example of why Strength of Schedule matters.  So, the obvious question is:

• What is the outlook for Indiana in 2025?

Well, the schedule is a bit more difficult this year as compared to last year.  After three opening out-of-conference games against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State, the Hoosiers draw Illinois, Iowa and Oregon back to back to back.  Early November has Indiana facing Penn State and Wisconsin on successive weekends.

Indiana coach, Curt Cignetti, has a gaudy record that could serve Indiana well during those difficult scheduling stretches.  He has been a head coach since 2011 and has worked his way up the coaching ladder quickly and successfully.  Consider:

• 2011-2016  Indiana University of Pennsylvania  53-17
• 2017-2018  Elon  14-9
• 2019-2023  James Madison  52-9
• 2024 – present  Indiana  11-2
• Combined coaching record is 130-37  win percentage = .778

I think Indiana will be an interesting case study for a program turnaround over the next few seasons.

The CFP will remain as a 12-team tournament field for 2025.  I believe that is already too many teams and that there will be too many uninteresting games in the early rounds of the tournament and I also believe that makes no difference when it comes to the decision to expand the field ultimately to 16 teams.  Money is the driver not quality of the product on the TV screen.  With the existence of only 4 major football conferences and the need for 12 teams in the CFP field, there will necessarily be non-conference champions receiving invitations.  That is a mathematical certainty.

Due to the importance that has come to attach itself to the CFP games and the CFP champion of course, the fact of “winning the conference” has been diminished.  Concurrently, the conference championship games are only there as a way for conferences to determine their champions for a season.  So as “winning the conference” has become less prestigious, one has to wonder why – – other than revenue – – schools schedule those conference championship games in early December.

Back when the CFP was only 4 teams, a game between Alabama and Georgia for the  SEC Championship had a double meaning – – the SEC Championship AND a slot in the CFP.  Now with 12 teams in the CFP it is possible for both teams to get an invitation meaning the “prize” for winning that game is the diminished conference championship.

• [Aside:  In 2024, the CFP Final game did not involve a conference champion.  In fact, the conference champions were eliminated quickly in the tournament; the ACC champion (Clemson) was eliminated by Texas in the first round of play.]

Pre-season polls are interesting even though they rarely “get it right”.  This year the focus is on Texas – – ranked #1 in the pre-season – – and their new QB, Arch Manning.  If  you have read this far into this screed on college football, you already know the Arch Manning story all too well.  If he gets a hangnail at any time during this upcoming season, you will hear about it from a minimum of a dozen outlets.

I will be interested to see what UNC does under the tutelage of Bill Belichick.  I will not be interested in any more stories about Belichick and his arm candy girlfriend.  The Tar Heels were 6-7 last  year …

I will be interested to see how Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes respond to the loss of Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter.  Colorado was 9-4 last year and 7-2 in the Big-12 Conference …

I will be interested in following the Big-12 race this year.  Last year, four teams finished with a record of 7-2 in the conference; they were Arizona St., BYU, Colorado, and Iowa St.  Three other teams finished at 6-3 in conference; they were Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech.

I will be interested in two other coaching stories this year – – beyond the Bill Belichick/UNC situation:

1. Rich Rodriguez is returning to West Virginia where he enjoyed a lot of success before flaming out elsewhere.  Can he “go home again”?
2. Sherone Moore (Michigan) will serve a two-game suspension in the middle of the season stemming from the sign-stealing incidents from several years ago.  Is that the end of the story or are there more shoes to drop?

Naturally, I would lose a significant portion of my credibility as a curmudgeon if I did not look for a disaster team for 2025.  I mentioned Purdue finishing last year at 1-11 with a tough schedule on tap for 2025 but let me not ignore another team going into this season off a terrible year in 2024.  That team would be the Kent State Golden Flashes.  Last year, Kent State pulled off this trifecta of recognition:

1. Winner of the Brothel Defense Award giving up 44.1 points per game
2. #1 Seed in the SHOE Tournament imagined here every season
3. The only Division 1-AA team to go winless for the season

The head coach there was Kenni Burns – – no relationship to the filmmaker, Ken Burns or Major Frank Burns from M*A*S*H – – until he was fired in April of this year after spring practice.  His record in two years at Kent State was 1-23 and that single victory came at the expense of Central Connecticut State in 2023.  As I understand it, a school investigation showed that he obtained loans from a school vendor that paid off a judgement against Burns obtained by a bank thereby creating somehow a conflict of interest situation.  [Aside:  Sorry; that’s the best I can do with a situation that is not clear to me at all.  What is clear to me is that when faced with a “conflict of interest situation”, the 1-23 on-field record did not provide a whole lot of cover for Coach Burns.]  Kent State will play this year with an interim head coach as it carries out a “national search” for a permanent head coach.

Before I go, let me take a stab at eight Futures – – win total wagers – – for this season:

1. BC UNDER 6 wins
2. Ga Tech OVER 7 wins
3. Purdue UNDER 3.5 wins
4. Stanford UNDER 4 wins
5. Texas OVER 9.5 wins
6. Texas Tech OVER 8.5 wins
7. UMass UNDER 3.5 wins
8. UNLV OVER 8.5 wins

Finally, these from legendary college football coach, Bear Bryant:

“Winning isn’t everything, but it sure beats anything that comes in second.”

And …

“No coach has ever won a game by what he knows; it’s what his players know that counts.”

And …

“In a crisis, don’t hide behind anything or anybody. They’re going to find you anyway.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………