Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend of 12/6/15

Last week’s Mythical Picks were ever so slightly “in the black” and pushed the season total over the .500 mark. Last week’s record was 9-7-0 bringing the season total to 91-89-5. The Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Games went 2-1-0 keeping the coin in positive territory for the season at 14-12-1.

The “Best Picks” from last week were taking the Vikings plus points and the Skins plus points and watching both teams win straight up.

The “Worst Picks” from last week were the ones in the Pats/Broncos game. I liked the Pats and gave points (They lost straight up.) and I liked the game OVER 44 (It stayed UNDER.).

No one should use any info herein as the basis for making a real wager on a real NFL game involving real money this week – or any other week for that matter. If you are dumb enough to that, you probably also think that:

Nacho cheese is cheese that belongs to someone else.

General Comments:

Despite suffering his second collarbone injury for the season, the Cowboys have chosen not to put Tony Romo on the injured reserve list for the moment. Reportedly, the reason is that the Cowboys are not mathematically eliminated from the NFC Playoffs and should they get in and should Romo’s shoulder be “healed”, they want him available for a playoff run. That thinking stretches the limits “wishful thinking” and threatens to edge over the line into the realm of “magical thinking”.

Wishful thinking is hoping against hope; in the rare situation where a bit of wishful thinking comes to pass, it makes for a huge feelgood moment. Magical thinking is different; magical thinking is accepting the concept that Santa Claus on a sleigh powered by flying reindeer can actually visit the home of every child in the world on a single night.

If my math is correct, the best record the Cowboys can attain is 8-8. To do that they will need to win all of their next 5 games and even if they do so, there is no guarantee that they will win the NFC East. Compounding their task is a stark fact:

Just as maintaining the Santa Claus Myth for young kids does no great harm, neither does keeping Tony Romo on the active roster do any great harm. Nevertheless, he and his wife need not worry about booking themselves on a vacation to Tahiti sometime in January 2016…

On Thanksgiving, the Lions beat the Eagles 45-14 meaning that the Eagles defense gave up a total of 90 points in a 5-day period. More than a few Eagles’ fans have been lighting up Philly sports radio for the last few months calling for Sam Bradford to be benched – or worse – meaning that Mark Sanchez would take over the QB duties. Well, now those fans have seen Sanchez for about 6 quarters of football and it is time to ask them if they still think Sam Bradford is the reason the Eagles have not done well this year. I am not saying that Bradford has had a good season; he has not. I am not even saying that Bradford is well-suited to chip Kelly’s offense; I think he is not. However, Sam Bradford is not the reason the Eagles have been unsuccessful and the reason I say that is that there are multiple reasons why the Eagles have been unsuccessful.

Against the Lions, the Eagles defense surrendered 3 TDs to Calvin Johnson and allowed Matthew Stafford to throw 5 TD passes in the game. The 90 points the defense has surrendered in the past two games have been against the Bucs and the Lions. I doubt that many folks would place those two opponents near the top of a list titled “Fearsome Offenses NFL 2015”.

Later on Thanksgiving, the Panthers pantsed the Cowboys 33-14. In addition to losing Tony Romo for the rest of the season, there had to be another disappointing aspect to the game:

Someone was wearing a Cowboys jersey in the game with the number 88 on it and was doing a miserable imitation of Dez Bryant.

The Panthers got a Pick Six on the Cowboys’ first possession of the game. Here is what followed in the first half:

Folks, that was BEFORE Tony Romo was injured; that was the offensive output with the varsity squad on the field. The score at the half was 23-3 and anyone watching the game who was not adorned in Cowboys’ paraphernalia had to know the outcome was not in doubt. For the game, the Cowboys managed only 209 yards of offense. From here forward, they will have Matt Cassel and/or Kellen Moore at QB. Good luck with a playoff run…

On Thanksgiving night, the Bears beat the Packers 17-13 in Lambeau Field on the night the Packers retired Brett Favre’s number. The game was not nearly as exciting as I would have wanted. After all, that is when the tryptophan from all the turkey tends to kick in and an exciting game on the TV would have made it much easier to stay conscious. Whatever… At kickoff, the Bears were 9.5-point underdogs and they won the game outright; that should get Bears’ fans pumped for at least a week.

The Skins beat the Giants 20-14 and based on tie-breakers the Skins are now the NFC East leaders with a 5-6 record. This game was not as close as the score would indicate; the Skins led 20-0 after 3 quarters and the Skins’ defense dominated. The Skins got 3 turnovers in the game and did not give the ball away one time. Here is what I mean by “dominated”:

Kirk Cousins continues to play well in the “Jay Gruden offense” and he topped the 300-yard mark once again. Cousins’ contract is up at the end of this season; I think he is in line for a nice payday…

The Broncos handed the Patriots their first loss of the year by a 30-24 score. People have properly paid lots of attention to the injuries that the Pats have encountered at the WR position this year. However, it should also be noted that at the end of the game on Sunday, the Pats were also without their two starting inside linebackers on defense. The Broncos’ defense had no such difficulties and played exceptionally well holding the Pats to only 301 yards of offense – the Pats’ lowest offensive output for the year. Virtually all of that offense came through the air; the Pats could only eke out 39 yards rushing for the night.

Brock Osweiler played well in this game showing poise in addition to physical skills. Like Kirk Cousins, his contract also expires at the end of this season. One or two more games like the one on Sunday night and he too will be in line for a nice payday…

The Raiders beat the Titans 24-21 limiting the Titans to only 44 yards rushing. Marcus Mariota played decently but Derek Carr played better. Carr threw for 330 yards and 3 TDs including a late game TD that marked a come-from-behind win.

The Bengals beat the Rams 31-7 and two stats from that game will let you know how discombobulated the Rams were:

The Chargers beat the Jags 31-25 last week. Philip Rivers had a field day against the Jags’ defense going 29-43 for 300 yards and 4 TDs. That had to make the 5 hour flight home pleasant. The Jags’ offensive ineptitude aided in the win. Note the margin was only 6 points and consider that the Jags had the ball inside the Chargers’ 30-yardline on 4 occasions in the game and scored ZERO TDs.

The Chiefs beat the Bills 30-22 and the Chiefs are en fuego. After a miserable start, the Chiefs have run off 5 straight wins and are in the thick of the AFC wild card picture. The Chiefs had a tough schedule at the start but from here to January, the schedule is not nearly as fearsome:

All five of those are “winnable games”; I doubt the Chiefs will run the table, but they should stay in the wild card chase to the end. The Chiefs have something in their favor as they make their wild card run. Three other AFC teams angling for those slots are the Steelers, Texans and Bills; the Chiefs have beaten all three of them giving them a significant advantage in tie-breaking situations.

The Cardinals beat the Niners 19-13 in a game that was so wacky that it got the officiating crew taken off this week’s nationally televised Sunday Night Game. The margin of victory came after two early mistakes by the Niners in the first quarter (an INT and a muffed punt recovered by the Cards) gave the Cards 2 field goals. Oh, and Carson Palmer ran for a TD on a bootleg. Honest, there is video to prove it…

The Colts beat the Bucs 25-12 and held the Bucs scoreless in the second half and to less than 100 yards of offense in the second half. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 3 TDs and 315 yards in the game – – not bad for a 40-year old backup QB. Nevertheless, when Andrew Luck is completely recovered from his lacerated kidney, I think the Colts would be dumber than donkey dung to keep Luck on the sidelines.

The Texans beat the Saints 24-6; the Saints did not score a TD in the game. That is the first time in Sean Payton’s tenure in New Orleans where that has happened. In case you have lost track, Payton took over in New Orleans at the start of the 2006 season. The Texans’ defense dominated the game holding the Saints to only 268 yards of total offense.

The Vikes beat the Falcons 20-10 and fans booed Matt Ryan during the game. Ryan did not have a stellar game; he threw 2 INTs in the Vikes’ half of the field – one of them inside the Vikes’ 5-yardline. This makes 4 straight losses for the Falcons; if their season is not in a freefall right now, it sure will be if they lose this weekend.

The Jets beat the Dolphins 38-20 but the game was not nearly this close. Early in the 4th quarter, the Jets led 35-7 and put it on cruise control. This loss makes the Dolphins’ record against AFC East foes a sorry-assed 0-5. As mentioned above, the Dolphins fired their offensive coordinator after the game. Here is a stat that might have tilted the scales in favor of jettisoning him:

The Dolphins ran the ball 9 times in the game for a total of 12 yards.

The Seahawks beat the Steelers 39-30 in a most entertaining game. Russell Wilson threw for 5 TDs and 345 yards in the game; there were loads of open Seahawks’ receivers running through the Steelers’ secondary. When the Steelers had the ball, Ben Roethlisberger was also carving up the Seahawks defense; he threw for 456 yards in the game on 55 pass attempts; the Steelers had 525 yards of total offense for the day.

And then there was the Monday night game where the Ravens won on the blocked field goal returned for a TD on the final play of the game. Here is all I have to say about that game and the Browns in 2015:

The Games:

(Thurs Nite) Green Bay – 3 at Detroit (46.5): The Packers have lost four of their last 5 games including a loss at home to these same Lions. What is even more disturbing to Packers’ fans is that Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the offensive unit appears confused on more than a few plays. Meanwhile, the Lions have won 3 games in a row and I sure never saw that coming. I shall turn this game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip protocol and the coin says to take the Lions plus the points.

SF at Chicago – 7 (43): The favorite has covered the last 4 times these teams have met. Of course, they do not play all that often so that stretch of 4 games goes all the way back to October 2006. Nothing interesting there… The Bears are coming off a win over the Packers at Lambeau field last week; the Niners start Blaine Gabbert at QB with rookie Dylan Thompson (South Carolina) as the backup. I know full well that Jay Cutler is capable of throwing 3 INTs against the Bournemouth Gynecologists (/Monty Python’s Flying Circus) but I still cannot bring myself to take the Niners on the road with Blaine Gabbert at QB. I’ll take the Bears and lay the points.

Cincy – 9.5 at Cleveland (43): The spread for this game opened the week at 7.5 points and has been rising all week. You can even find it as high as 10.5 points at one Internet sportsbook this morning. The Bengals have a comfortable lead in the AFC North but they are still involved in a race for a BYE Week in the playoffs and possibly home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Bengals have something to play for; the Browns do not. The Browns are 26th in the NFL in yards gained per game and they are 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per game. It looks as if Austin Davis will be the Browns’ QB this week; how might that change the equation here. This is another Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the game to go OVER.

Jax at Tennessee – 2.5 (43): Woof! Woof! Without question this is the stone cold Dog-Breath Game of the Week. It is worth exactly no verbiage. I’ll take the Jags plus the points here.

Houston at Buffalo – 3 (42): The Texans have won 4 in a row and are tied with the Colts for the AFC South lead at 6-5. That record puts them in a tie with Pittsburgh, KC and the Jets for wild card slots in the playoffs. The Bills are 5-6 and need a win here to avoid needing miracles at the end of the season to get into the playoffs. I am a bit concerned with Tyrod Taylor’s shoulder; the Bills have not played well on offense the last two weeks and if the Bills have to turn to EJ Manuel, this game could get out of hand quickly. I like this game to be dominated by defense so I’ll take the game to stay UNDER.

Baltimore at Miami – 4 (43.5): Both teams are 4-7; the winners will delude themselves that they can make the playoffs and “do some damage” once they get there; the losers will fade from relevance. The Ravens are 11th in the NFL in offense while the Dolphins are 27th. The Ravens are 17th in the NFL in defense while the Dolphins are 28th. It is difficult to get any adrenaline flowing about a game involving a QB duel between Matt Schaub and Ryan Tannehill. I like the Ravens plus the points here in a blasé sort of way.

Carolina – 7 at New Orleans (50): The Saints cannot be as bad as they looked on offense last week, can they? The Saints cannot be as bad as they looked against the Skins a few weeks ago yielding almost 50 points there, can they? Well, if they can, this is not the team they want to face this week because the Panthers have an excellent defense (2nd in the NFL) and an adequate offense (17th in the NFL). Here is how I see the game unfolding.

To cover, the Panthers need 25 points; they can do that.

To take the game OVER 50, they need 34 points; they can do that too.

I like the Panthers to win and cover and I like the game to go OVER 50.

Seattle at Minnesota “pick ‘em” (41.5): Last week Ben Roethlisberger torched the Seahawks defense (see above). Whoa! I think he just completed another pass to a wide open receiver as I typed that last sentence. Teddy Bridgewater is playing well but he is not yet Ben Roethlisberger. If the oddsmaker wants me to pick the better team in this pick ‘em game, I’ll take the Seahawks as the winner.

Arizona – 6.5 at St. Louis (42.5): The Total Line opened the week at 44.5 and has been dropping steadily all week. The Rams have lost 4 games in a row but remember that they did beat the Cards in Arizona on October 4th. I do not know if the Rams have another upset they can pull out of a hat, but that line does look fat to me. I’ll take the Rams at home plus the points.

Atlanta at Tampa – 1.5 (46): The Falcons were once 5-0 for the season; this morning their record is 6-5. In October, they aspired to keep pace with the Panthers for the NFC South lead; In December, they are hoping to find ways to scratch out a win here or there. The Bucs have played well this season and Jameis Winston has had more good games than bad games. This is a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the Falcons plus the points.

Jets – 1.5 at Giants (45): The spread opened the week as a “pick ‘em” game but jumped to this level pretty quickly; you can find the spread as high as 2 points at two Internet sportsbooks this morning. These teams are hardly exciting ones this year; if the Giants happen to win, both teams will be 6-6 for the season. Ho-hum… The teams are dead even on offense; the Jets average 2 yards per game more than the Giants. On defense, that is a different story. The Jets are 3rd in the NFL giving up 323.9 yards per game while the Giants are dead last in the NFL giving up 419.6 yards per game. Yes, the Giants give up ever so slightly more yardage per game than the miserable Saints’ defense does. I’ll take the Jets and lay the points.

Denver – 4 at San Diego (43.5): Given that Brock Osweiler played as well as he did against the Patriots last week, this spread shows him no love. I think the Broncos’ defense will hold the Chargers well below the 31 points they put on the board against the Jags last week meaning that this game will not turn into a Brock Osweiler/Philip Rivers shoot-out. I like the Broncos to win and cover even on the road.

KC – 3 at Oakland (44): The Chiefs are smack dab in the middle of the AFC wild card race and the Raiders can insert themselves there with a win in this game. What we have here is a real throwback; we have a Chiefs/Raiders game that is important to both teams in terms of the playoffs. Looks as if Mr Peabody set the Wayback Machine for some time in the late 60s/early 70s. I think this will be a defensive game so I’ll take the game to stay UNDER.

Philly at New England – 10 (49): The Pats lost last week and they justifiably can look at the game tapes and think that a few dubious officiating calls in the 4th quarter had something to with that. The Eagles do not have the defensive personnel to match up with the Pats’ offense. I like the Pats to win and cover at home.

(Sun Nite) Indy at Pittsburgh (no lines): No lines means no pick for the game. The reason there are no lines is that Ben Roethlisberger is in the process of clearing out of the NFL Concussion Protocol so his availability for this game may not be known until Saturday. If I have to explain to you that there is a significant difference between the Steelers with Roethlisberger at QB and Landry Jones at QB, then you should not have read this far into these Mythical Picks.

(Mon Nite) Dallas at Washington – 4.5 (42): If the Giants lose on Sunday as I think they will, then the Skins can open up a significant lead in the NFC East with a win here. A win would give then a 3-1 record in the division; everyone else in the NFC East has two division losses as of this morning and the Giants have 3 division losses already. Jerry Jones still thinks the NFC East can be won by the Cowboys – hence no IR for Tony Romo yet (see above) – but a loss here would be the 9th of the year for the Cowboys and that would put the nail in the icing to mix metaphors here. Once more, I shall turn to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin says to take the Skins and lay the points.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………