Assessing Recent QB Changes

Success in the NFL usually involves a successful QB.  Yes, I know that Trent Dilfer and Mark Rypien won Super Bowls, but I contend that they are the exceptions and not the rule.  At the end of the 2023 season, the NFL saw an upcoming Draft with a ton of potential at the QB position and that situation generated a huge amount of personnel movement around the league.  Now that we are 6 weeks into the 2024 season, I want to look back and see what teams did that was successful so far and what was not.  I’ll do the teams in alphabetical order; there is no ranking here:

• Bears:  Holding the overall #1 pick in the Draft, the Bears traded their 2023 starter Justin Fields to the Steelers and took Caleb Williams with that #1 pick.  The Bears are 4-2 as of this morning which has them in last place in the very strong NFC North, but the Bears look as if they have their “QB of the future” if they allow for some bumps along the road to development.  Good Draft pick by the Bears; they upgraded at QB…
• Broncos:  The Broncos released 2023 starter, Russell Wilson leaving Jarrett Stidham as the putative starter for 2024.  However, in the Draft, the Broncos took Bo Nix who beat out Stidham for the starting job in Training Camp this summer.  Nix has been spotty so far in the NFL; some of that might be attributed to a rather ordinary cadre of pass catchers in Denver.  The Broncos’ situation is probably best labeled as a “Work in Progress” …
• Bucs:  The Bucs resigned Baker Mayfield – – their QB in 2023 – – as a free agent.  So, the Bucs basically stood pat and as of today they are tied atop the NFC South with the Falcons.  Mayfield is not a great NFL QB, but he is clearly competent.  Solid move by the Bucs…
• Commanders:  They traded 2023 starter, Sam Howell, to the Seahawks for a box of rocks and used the #2 pick in the Draft to take Jayden Daniels whose performance in an admittedly small sample of 6 games has been stellar.  Like the Bears, it appears that the Commanders have their “QB of the future” on the roster…
• Falcons:  The Falcons started Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at QB in 2023 and that just did not work out.  Desperate times call for desperate measures and the Falcons made big changes.  They signed 36-year-old Kirk Cousins as a free agent coming off Achilles Tendon surgery to a 4-year deal worth $180M.  In addition, the Falcons also took Michael Penix, Jr. with the overall 8^th pick in the Draft this year as a developmental project.  The Falcons are tied with the Bucs for the NFC South lead today; the near-term QB situation in Atlanta seems solid; Cousins is not limping around on a bad leg; the longer-term picture is still cloudy depending on Penix’ “development” …
• Giants:  The Giants’ QB situation last year was chaotic at best with Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito as starters.  Jones is back from injury as the starter; DeVito is on the bench and Taylor used his free agency to move across town and sign with the Jets.  The Giants then acquired Drew Lock from the Seahawks in a trade.  So, the net result for the Giants is that they replaced Taylor with Lock; looking at that outcome, I would label it as a “lateral arabesque” …
• Jets:  The Jets’ QB situation in 2023 went into Keystone Kops mode when Aaron Rodgers went out for the season after 4 plays in the first game of the season.  To refresh your memory, here is the roster of QBs that were available to the Jets sans Rodgers in 2023:
  • • Tim Boyle
    • Brett Rypien
    • Trevor Siemian
    • Chris Streveler
    • Zach Wilson

The Jets went through Rodgers-induced drama over the summer, but he has been healthy so far in 2024.  However, the drama continues in NYC leading to the firing of coach Robert Saleh already and lots of people say that Rodgers’ fingerprints are all over that decision.  Aaron Rodgers will be in the Hall of Fame soon, but he is not the “QB of the future” for anyone in the league these days.  According to Spotrac.com, Rodgers is signed with the Jets through the 2025 season when he will be an unrestricted free agent again at age 43.  Maybe the Jets can make a run this year or next year, but their QB situation is still only slightly better than a hot mess …

• Pats:  The Pats changed coaches and QBs.  Last year, Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe started in New England; Jones was traded to the Jags and Zappe signed on with the Chiefs to their practice squad.  The Pats brought Jacoby Brisset back to New England where he started his career and Brisset won the starting job over Drake Maye who the Pats took with the #3 overall pick in the Draft.  Maye started his first game yesterday – – a loss to the Texans – – completing 61% of his passes and throwing 3 TDs and 2 INTs.  In this situation, the jury is still out…
• Raiders:  The Raiders started Jimmy G, Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell at QB in 2023; none set the world on fire.  Garoppolo was released and eventually wound up with the Rams; Hoyer is not in the league after bouncing around for 15 seasons; O’ Connell lost a Training Camp competition to Gardner Minshew for the starting job in Las Vegas.  Already, Minshew was benched in favor of O’Connell in 2024.  Neither Minshew nor O’Connell is “the answer” at QB; the Raiders situation here in 2024 is no better than it was in 2023, and it was sub-standard in 2023…
• Seahawks:  The Seahawks’ stating QB in 2023 was Geno Smith; he negotiated a restructured contract with the team and retained his starting job bearing out Sam Howell – – acquired from the Commanders – – in Training Camp.  The only change in Seattle is that Howell is the backup this year in place of Drew Lock.
• Steelers:  The Steelers started 3 QBs last year and got rid of all of them.
  • • Kenny Picket was traded to the Eagles
    • Mason Rudolph left for the Titans in free agency
    • Mitchell Trubisky was released and eventually signed with the Bills

Then the Steelers signed Russell Wilson as a free agent and traded for Justin Fields.  Wilson has yet to see the field, but Justin Fields has led the team to a 4-2 start to the 2024 season leaving the Steelers tied with the Ravens for the lead in the AFC North.  I doubt that Wilson is a long-term answer at QB for the Steelers, but Fields is a raw physical talent.  There comes a time in the career of a top-shelf QB where he adds a mental understanding of the game to his physical gifts creating a new blend.  So far, Justin Fields has not added that element to his game – but if he does …

• Vikes:  The Vikes lost Kirk Cousins halfway through last season and then lost him permanently in free agency.  The other starters in 2023 were:
  • • Josh Dobbs
    • Jaren Hall
    • Nick Mullens

The Vikes took JJ McCarthy in the Draft, but he was injured in the Exhibition season and will miss all of 2024.  That put Sam Darnold in the starting job over Brett Rypien and Darnold has led the Vikes to a 5-0 record so far in 2024.  This is Darnold’s 7^th year in the NFL and his performance prior to 2024 is politely labeled as “Meh!”.  Did the Vikes fill an inside straight there?  Can JJ McCarthy live up to his hype if Darnold returns to his prior form?  It is too soon to know if the Vikes have resolved their issues at QB just yet …

The Cleveland Browns rode a strong defense and Joe Flacco’s relief performance to a wild-card playoff slot in 2023.  Deshaun Watson was out with an injury last year and given the contract he has with the Browns it was a foregone conclusion that he would be the starter in 2024.  But the Browns chose to release Flacco and sign Jameis Winston as their backup for 2024.  I don’t want to make Joe Flacco out to be a great QB or a long-term answer for a team – – he is 39 years old – – but neither is Jameis Winston a great QB or a long-term answer for a team.  The Browns are a mess this season; Deshaun Watson has played poorly; the team is averaging 16 points per game.  Meanwhile Flacco is in Indy capably filling in for the again-injured Anthony Richardson.

The Browns, Jets and Raiders all need help at QB going forward.  Maybe the Pats, Giants and Seahawks do too.  Time marches on.

Finally, this observation by Bill Parcells:

“You don’t get any medal for trying something, you get medals for results.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports……..