NFL Head Coaches On A Hot Seat – 2024

As the NFL Exhibition Season revs itself up, I want to take a moment to look at seven head coaches who enter the 2024 season on a hot seat.  In a “high-turnover year”, the league might see as many as 8 coaches get fired (25% of the guys in that head coaching fraternity); this year there are indeed 8 new head coaches – – counting Antonio Pierce who was held over after taking over the team in mid-season last year – – meaning that 25% of the coaches in the league pretty much get a pass for a year.  Nevertheless, there are coaches who need to have their teams perform well to assure they remain in position in 2025.

Let me be clear; I am not “rooting for” anyone to lose their job.  This is just an attempt to “take the temperature” of the environment for several NFL teams.  My list is in alphabetical order and not as a prioritization of any kind.

• Dennis Allen has been the head coach of the Saints for 2 years; his record with the team is 16-18-0 with no playoff appearances.  This is Allen’s second go-round as a head coach in the NFL; previously he was the head coach for the Raiders where his record was 8-22-0 meaning he does not have a glorious past to help him maintain his position.  The NFC South has been one of the weaker divisions in the league the past two years and the Saints have not been able to cash in on that weakness.  I think the Saints need to make the playoffs this year – – which probably equates with winning the division – – in order to retain Dennis Allen in the job.
• Todd Bowles has been the head coach of the Bucs for 2 years; his record with the team is 17-17-0 but the Bucs have made the playoffs in both of those two seasons and advanced out of the wild-card round with a playoff win last year.  On one hand, his record is one game better than Dennis Allen’s; on the other hand, his teams have been in the playoffs every year that he has been in charge.  Like the situation with the Saints, Bowles may be in a position of being judged as not accumulating a winning record in a weak division thereby generating agita in the owner’s suite.  I think the Bucs need to make the playoffs again this year – – which probably equates with winning the division – – in order to retain Tod Bowles in the job.
• Brian Daboll has been the head coach of the Giants for 2 years; his record with the team is 15-18-1 with one playoff appearance.  In his first year in NY, Daboll made the playoffs, won a wild-card game and was named the NFL Coach of the Year.  Last year, the wheels fell off the wagon; the Giants were 6-11 and were not competitive in more than a couple of those losses.  Indeed, there were injuries last year including an injury to starting QB, Daniel Jones, that had him miss more than half the year.  There were some rough interactions between Daboll and defensive coordinator Wink Martindale last year, but that problem has been eliminated with Martindale being fired and replaced with Shane Bowen late of the Tennessee Titans’ defense.  I think there are 3 dimensions to Brian Daboll keeping his job in NYC:

1. 1. 1. The team needs a break-even record or better.  That may not be enough to get to the playoffs, but it will show improvement over last season.
      2. Every team has a bad game here and there, but the Giants cannot be “uncompetitive” in more than one of their losses.
      3. There needs to be “coaching harmony” within the staff; no more sniping at one another among the coaches and the assistants.

• Matt Eberflus has been the coach of the Bears for 2 years; his record with the team is 10-24-0 with no playoff appearances.  The Bears were 7-10-0 in 2023 which is a marked improvement over the 3-14-0 record posted in Eberflus’ first season in Chicago.  Moreover, the Bears have added Caleb Williams to the roster for 2024 and the expectation is that Williams will be the Bears’ best QB since Sid Luckman hung up his jockstrap in 1950.  The Bears have three strong division opponents making their schedule a lot dicier than is the situation in either New Orleans or Tampa Bay; so, I don’t think a playoff appearance is mandatory for Eberflus to keep his job.  I think he needs a break-even year with competitive losses plus observable growth on the part of Caleb Williams into the job of “franchise QB”.
• Mike McCarthy has been the coach of the Cowboys for 4 years; his record with the team is 42-25-0 with 3 playoff appearances and 2 NFC East championships.  Why is that a hot seat?  Well, it is the Cowboys – – where unrealistic expectations are born and raised; plus, this is the final year of McCarthy’s contract with the club.  As noted here, McCarthy’s teams have been in the playoffs 3 times in the last 4 seasons, but they have been unceremoniously dismissed from the playoffs without winning any games there.  I think the Cowboys need a playoff win in January 2025 for McCarthy to keep his job.
• Nick Sirianni has been the coach of the Eagles for 3 years; his record with the team is 34-17-0 with 3 playoff slots, 1 NFC East championship and 1 Super Bowl appearance.  Why is that a hot seat?  Well, the Eagles as a franchise are not averse to changing coaches and “changing cultures”.  Remember they fired Andy Reid after a couple of sub-par seasons; they hired and fired Chip Kelly when it was pretty clear that was not working out; they fired Doug Pedersen two years after a Super Bowl victory; the Eagles are not afraid of coaching changes.  So, here are Nick Sirianni’s parameters for 2024:
  • • The Eagles started the season 10-1 last year and then lost five of their last six games in an epic collapse.  Nothing close to that sort of performance is permissible; in fact, if the team looks like they are in a funk during the season, there could easily be a coaching change in mid-year.
    • I dismiss the “stories” about friction between Sirianni and QB, Jalen Hurts; but the fact is that Hurts did not play well during “the collapse”.  Jalen Hurts cannot continue to regress in his performance this season.
    • Sirianni had hired two new coordinators last year; both were fired after that dismal collapse; he has played the “fire the coordinators card” already.
    • The new coordinators in Philly have solid NFL reputations and that sets the expectations at a high level in a city where failing to meet expectations is not a pleasant experience.
    • The Eagles need to make the playoffs as a minimum in 2024.
• Robert Saleh has been the coach of the Jets for 3 years; his record with the team is 18-33-0.  Last year was supposed to be a “turnaround” year for the Jets with the acquisition of Aaron Rodgers to play QB for a franchise that has not had an above average starting QB since Joe Namath left town in 1976.  Unfortunately, Rodgers played 4 snaps before his Achilles tendon snapped and the Jets were back to square one trying to win without a reliable passing game.  Rodgers is back at age 41 and expectations among Jets’ fans are lofty.  But I sense that all is not peaches and cream between Rodgers and Saleh.
  • • When Rodgers missed the Jets’ “mandatory mini-camp”, Saleh said that the absence was “unexcused” and left it at that.  I interpret that as a message to Rodgers that the coach is not happy and that the coach is the one in charge not the player.
    • Rodgers explained that he misunderstood the Jets’ schedule and that things had been different during all his time with the Packers.  Maybe so … but everyone else on the roster understood the schedule and showed up.  I interpret that as the star QB challenging the coach to do something about it.  Aaron Rodgers is an intelligent man; how might he have misunderstood the meaning of the word, “mandatory”?
    • Saleh held a press conference last week and said that even though Rodgers is not limited in what he does in practice, the Jets will not be playing him in the opening Exhibition Game.  No big deal there; that is standard stuff.
    • Rodgers told the press that it was news to him and that he and Saleh had not had any conversation about him playing or sitting and that he was happy to do whatever he was told to do.  Passive-aggressive behavior is not a good look during NFL Training Camp times…
    • I think the Jets need a winning record in 2024 for Robers Saleh to keep his job.

I have listed 7 coaches here who face challenges in 2024 that their teams need to overcome if the coaches are to be in the same position in 2025.  Every year, a situation develops during the season that is totally unexpected and so I want to mention one other name who might feel some heat during the season:

• Dave Canales is the new head coach in Carolina; it is his first time as a head coach in the NFL; he takes over a team that was 2-15-0 in 2023 so it would not take a Herculean effort to “show improvement” there.  Why am I mentioning his name?  The Panthers’ owner is David Tepper who had owned the team since 2018; in those 6 NFL seasons, the Panthers have already had 6 head coaches counting interim head coaches who took over in mid-season.

Finally, here is an observation about coaching and getting fired from Lou Holtz:

“Coaching is nothing more than eliminating mistakes before you get fired.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………