Football Friday 12/15/23

Earlier this week, my long-suffering wife and I hosted friends for dinner.  Our guests are “irregular readers” of these rants and as they were leaving after dinner, one of them asked me for an “advance look” at what might be the topic for the next day’s rant.  My answer was that I had no idea – – and rarely do – – what I would focus on until I sat down to attack the keyboard.  The one exception is Thursday evenings, I know then that tomorrow will be a Football Friday.

And today is Friday so let me begin – – as usual – – with a review of last week’s highly embarrassing “Betting Bundle”:

• College  =  0-0-0   =>   Season  =  19-9-0
• NFL  =  0-3-0   =>   Season  =  17-17-0
• Parlays  0-1  Loss  =  $100   =>  Season  7-12  Loss  = $147

Undaunted, I shall press on …

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Earlier this week, Tulane announced and introduced its new head football coach, Jon Sumrall.  Tulane needed a new coach because last year’s coach, Willie Fritz, took the job at Houston; Sumrall comes to Tulane after a couple of highly successful seasons at Troy.  Normally, a coaching change at a Group of Five school is not particularly noteworthy but at his introduction – in and among all the boilerplate/scripted lines and phrases – – Sumrall said this:

“We are going to make the college football playoff and we are going to win it.”

This year, Tulane will take part in the Military Bowl in Annapolis, MD on December 27^th with Va Tech as the opponent.  It is a big step from there to winning the CFP which will expand to 12 teams next year.

Jayden Daniels (QB LSU) won the Heisman Trophy for 2023.  He is the second LSU QB to win that award in the last 5 seasons; Joe Burrow won the award in 2019.  I said previously that I would have voted for Marvin Harrison, Jr. if I had a vote but that if a QB was to win the award again this year, my choice would have been Jayden Daniels.

Some of the schedules for next year have already been released.  I was scanning a couple and did a double-take when I saw the schedule for the University of Florida.  Next year’s Gators need to strap on the helmets extra tight:

• Florida has 3 out of conference games – – Miami, Samford and UCF.  Samford should be a glorified scrimmage, but Miami and UCF will put up a fight.
• Florida has 5 games in the month of November – – Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida St.  No tiptoeing through the tulips there …

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The LA Chargers will have to finish the season without their QB, Justin Herbert who underwent surgery on a broken index finger on this throwing hand.  His replacement last week was Easton Stick.  In case you are not familiar with his CV let me give you a thumbnail:

• Last week in relief of Herbert, he was 13 of 24 for 179 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs.
• Prior to that work, his only appearance in an NFL game was in 2020 and he attempted 1 pass then, completed it for 4 yards – – and that’s it.
• He was a four-year player at Division 1-AA, North Dakota St. and joined the Chargers in 2018.
• He is 28 years old.
• There is no way you might conclude that the Chargers have “rushed him” into action.

Easton Stick is another example of a point I tried to make before; the position of “Backup QB” has become very important in the NFL.  I do not have the interest to go team by team to list all the backup QBs who have been pressed into action this year but let me just name the ones that come immediately to mind without any searching:

1. Tyson Bagent
2. Tim Boyle
3. Jake Browning
4. Tommy DeVito
5. Josh Dobbs
6. Joe Flacco
7. Will Levis
8. Davis Mills
9. Gardner Minshew
10. Nick Mullens
11. Aidan O’Connell
12. Tyrod Taylor
13. Dorian Thompson-Robinson
14. Mitchell Trubisky
15. Clayton Tune
16. Zach Wilson
17. Jameis Winston
18. Bailey Zappe

As if that list is not scary enough, look at this week’s schedule when we get to it and try to recall who started at QB for every team in Week 1.  Almost 40% of the league has had to make a change.   However, before any of the “trauma injury activists” out there decide to crank this up as an evil of the expanded 17-game NFL schedule, please recall that all this pillage and destruction of QBs happened within 13 potential NFL contests for all of the QBs listed here.

The Circa is a relatively new hotel/casino/sportsbook in Las Vegas; it is the home of VSIN broadcasting network and it boasts the largest sportsbook seating area in the world.  The Circa started an NFL survival pool at the start of the 2023 season; the entry fee was $1000.  There were over 9000 entries so the last man standing will take home $9.2M.  From that starting group of about 9200 folks, there are a total of only 13 survivors as of this week …

As of this morning, I think the Chicago Bears are the most interesting story in the NFL.  It has been a while since the Bears have won a playoff game; since the start of the millennium, the Bears have only had 7 winning seasons; in 2023, their record stands as 5-8.  Why is that interesting?

Well, the Bears seem to be putting things together and Justin Fields is beginning to play at a high level much more predictably than he did in the past.  Last year, the Bears were 3-14 but they stuck with Fields and did not draft a QB.  In fact, they traded their high pick to the Panthers and one of the pieces of that trade was this year’s Panthers’ first round pick.  As of this morning the Bears will own the overall #1 pick in the draft.  If they stuck with Fields after last season, it is hard to imagine that the Bears would jettison him now and draft a rookie QB; so, maybe the Bears might add Marvin Harrison, Jr. as a weapon for Fields to use as needed?  Another possibility would be to trade that overall #1 pick – remember the Bears still have a pick of their own in Round One – and acquire several picks to add to the roster.

The remaining schedule for the Bears presents an interesting picture:

• At Browns – – Joe Flacco has been great for the last two games; can he keep it up?
• Vs. Cards – – Bears will be favored at home
• Va. Falcons – – Bears will be favored at home
• At Packers

If the Bears manage to win this week and hold serve against the Cards and Falcons, they would be 8-8 heading to Green Bay for the final game of the year possibly with a playoff berth on the line.

That is why I think the Chicago Bears are the most interesting story in the NFL this morning…

Let me review some of last week’s games:

Saints 28  Panthers 6:  Another example of a head coach being fired and the team continuing to lose despite the change.  The Panthers outgained the Saints 303 yards to 207 yards and lost by 22 points; that does not happen often.  It takes a special kind of ineptitude to do that.    Looking at the overall stats, it is difficult to see how the Panthers lost:

• Panthers’ Time of Possession = 34:50  Saints’ Time of Possession = 25:10
• Panthers’ Turnovers = 2  Saints’ Turnovers = 1

Here is the stat that could explain everything, The Panthers went for it on fourth down seven times in the game and only converted once.  This win puts the Saints in a three-way tie atop the NFC South; the loss puts the Panthers in last place in the NFC South and it makes the Panthers the only NFC team mathematically eliminated from the playoffs already.

Bengals 34  Colts 14:  The score was tied 14-14 at the half.  The Bengals continued to score in the second half while the Colts eschewed their opportunities.

Browns 31  Jags 27:  Joe Flacco turned in an excellent performance, especially considering he had been with the team for about an hour and half.  Here is Flacco’s stat line:

• 26 of 45 for 311 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT

The Jags maintained their lead in the AFC South because the Colts lost, and the Texans also lost last weekend.

Bears 28  Lions 13:  Justin Fields acquitted himself nicely in this game:

• 19 of 33 for 223 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs – – PLUS – –
• 12 carries for 58 yards with 1 TD

The Lions still have a comfortable 2-game lead in the NFC North, but the Lions have not played well since Thanksgiving.  The score was 13-10 at the half; the Lions received the kickoff in the third quarter and here are the results of their drives in the third quarter:

• 3 plays – – 4 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 7 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – minus-1 yard – – PUNT
• 2 plays – – 6 yards – – FUMBLE

That is the sort of “Lions football” fans would recognize over the  past 30 years or so…

Jets 30  Texans 6:  I said last week that DeMeco Ryans would have to work to be sure his team did not take the Jets lightly.  Well, the Jets put on an offensive eruption here; this is the second-highest point total for the Jets this season.  In fact, over the previous 6 games, the Jets had averaged only 9.7 points per game.  The Texans only managed 175 yards on offense (58 yards passing) for the game while the Jets amassed 347 yards.  Zach Wilson had 302 yards passing with 2 TDs and no INTs.  Wow!  Even worse news for the Texans is that CJ Stroud was in the concussion protocol and had to be replaced by Davis Mills last week.

Ravens 37  Rams 31 (OT):  This was the game on in my viewing area in the early Sunday time slot and it was one of the more interesting games of the season.  It was back and forth for the entire game.  For the 60 minutes of regulation time, the largest lead in the game was 5 points and there were 9 lead changes.  The loss – – breaking a 3-game winning streak for the Rams – – puts the Rams 4 games behind the Niners in the NFC West which is virtually insurmountable with only 4 games left to play.  In terms of a wild card slot, the Rams are “in the mix” but are not “sitting pretty.  Meanwhile the Ravens are 10-3 this morning and have the best record in the AFC.

Bucs 29  Falcons 25:  I have no rooting interest in the Bucs and I have no particular dislike for the Falcons, but I wanted the Bucs to win this game as I saw the Saints were toasting the Panthers.  In the squishy-soft NFC South there is a three-way tie for the division lead and all three teams are below .500.  For now:

• Saints are in third place with a poorer division record than the Falcons or Bucs.
• Falcons are in second place with a poorer conference record than the Bucs.
• Bucs are in first place – – by default.

The Falcons lost this game despite outgaining the Bucs 434 yards to 290 yards.  Mike Evans had an uncharacteristically bad day catching only one pass for 8 yards.

Vikings 3  Raiders 0:  No, these teams did not take Mr. Peabody’s Wayback Machine in order to play the game in the 1940s.  However, the two teams combined to produce only 433 yards of offense in the game.  The two teams also combined to punt the ball 17 times in the game.  The lone score in the game was a 56-yard field goal with 2 minutes remaining.  The interesting thing about the Vikes this morning is that they are two games behind the Lions in the NFC North race – – AND – – the Vikes and Lions play each other twice between now and the end of the season.

Niners 28  Seahawks 16:  The Niners outgained the Seahawks 527 yards to 324 yards; normally, that level of dominance yields a win by more than 12 points.  The Niners were clearly the better team on the field here.  The win gives the Niners a record of 10-3 which is the same record held by the Cowboys and the Eagles – – but the Niners have already beaten both the Cowboys and the Eagles head-to-head.  With this win, the Niners have clinched a playoff slot.

Cowboys 33  Eagles 13:  Here is another game where one team (Cowboys) was clearly the better team on the field.  The Eagles’ TD came on a Scoop-and-score; the offense only managed 2 field goals in the game.  The Cowboys forced 3 turnovers in the game and outgained the Eagles by 70 yards.  Cowboys’ rookie kicker, Brandon Aubrey kicked 3 field goals in the game from 50 yards, 59 yards and 60 yards.  In the history of the NFL, no kicker has had a game where he hit two field goals of 59+ yards.

Pats 21  Steelers 18:  The Steelers’ offense came to life two weeks ago and gained more than 400 yards in a game.  Last week, the Steelers’ offense reverted to non-productive status gaining only 264 yards.  Bailey Zappe was the Pats’ QB in the game and posted this impressive stat line:

• 19 of 28 for 240 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT

The Pats led 21-10 at the half and never scored again.  Here are the Steelers’ possessions in the second half trying to erase an 11-point deficit:

• 11 plays – – 32 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 7 yards – – PUNT
• 4 plays – – 9 yards – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 4 plays – – 26 yards – – TOUCHDOWN
• 7 plays – – 13 yards – – PUNT
• 6 plays – – 22 yards – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 2 plays – – 45 yards – – END OF GAME

Despite the win, the Pats are officially eliminated from the AFC playoffs as of today.  C’est la guerre …

Giants 24  Packers 22:  Don’t look now, but the Giants have won three games in a row.  They won this one by running the ball 34 times for 209 yards (6.1 yards per carry).  It was not a pretty game; the two teams combined to turn the ball over 5 times.

Titans 28  Dolphins 27:  The Dolphins led by two scores with 3 minutes left in the game and gave up two TDs and a two-point conversion in that span.  The Dolphins still lead the AFC East by 2 games, but they are a game behind the Ravens in the race for the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs.  That is important because the Dolphins are better at home than they are on the road.  Will Levis put on a show for the Titans in this game:

• 23 of 38 for 327 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT

The Dolphins won the turnover battle 3 to 1 but that was not enough to secure a victory.

As of today, the four lowest scoring teams in the NFL are:

1. Pats – – 169 points
2. Giants – – 183 points
3. Panthers – – 197 points
4. Jets – – 201 points.

As a testament to the adage that “On any given Sunday …”, three of those four teams won lasts week; only the Panthers lost.

Just to let you know, Sam Howell was not sacked at all last week – – because the Commanders had a BYE Week.  Going into this week’s action, Howell has been sacked 58 times in 13 games and that projects to just shy of the all-time NFL record.  Stay tuned…  The Commanders’ final four games are:

• At Rams
• At Jets
• Vs Niners
• Vs Cowboys

Those final three opponents play a lot of defense…

 

Games this Week:

 

BYE Weeks are a thing of the past in this regular season; everyone is in action from here until the start of the playoffs.  This week is the first of two Saturdays with a full day of NFL action.

About 60 years ago, Dinah Washington sang:

“What a difference a day makes.

Twenty-four little hours …”

I found myself humming that little tune last night watching the Raiders beat the Chargers 63-21.  That was the same Raiders’ team that was shut out and lost a game 3-0 last Sunday (see above).  Of course, the generosity of the Chargers in terms of turnovers and short fields played a part in this debacle, but the Raiders took advantage of the turnovers and led 42-0 at halftime. To give you a flavor of the shellacking here:

• Four times the Raiders began a drive in Chargers’ territory.  All four drives resulted in a Raider TD.
• The Raiders scored on a “Scoop-and-score”.
• The Raiders scored on a “Pick-Six”.

For the record, the Total Line for the Raiders/Chargers game last night was 36 points.  Anyone who bet the UNDER could have ripped up the ticket before halftime.

There is always line movement for games as the week progresses and as news about injuries or whatever hits the street.  It seems to me that there are no more line movements this week than usual, but the movements this week seem larger than usual.  Whatever …  Here are the numbers.

(Sat Early PM) Vikes at Bengals – 3.5 (40):  The spread opened with the Vikes as one-point favorites, but the line quickly flipped to the Bengals as favorites and then climbed to this level.  Both teams are 7-6 and both are relevant in the playoff discussion – – even though I cannot fathom how that is the case.  Back in September if you told me that this game would be Nick Mullens versus Jake Browning, I would have assumed that it would be a candidate for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Instead, this is an important game for the playoffs in both conferences.

(Sat Late PM) Steelers at Colts – 1.5 (41):  Both teams would be in the playoffs if the season had ended last week; that will almost assuredly not be the case for the loser of this game come Sunday morning.  Neither team is “fun to watch” but this is a playoff game of sorts here in mid-December.

(Sat Nite) Broncos at Lions – 4.5 (48):  The Lions have lost two of their last three games and have not played well since Thanksgiving; they lead their division but are trending down and not up in the latter part of the regular season.  The Broncos are the opposite.  They do not lead their division but have been playing much better in recent weeks than they did at the beginning of the season.  The Broncos will be playing their third road game in a row here.

Falcons – 3 at Panthers (34):  This game was my runner-up as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week, but this is a must-win for the Falcons, so I’ll cut the game some slack.  After this game, the three remaining games for the Falcons look to be toss-ups.  If they lose here, they should probably hang things up for the year.  The Panthers enter the game with a 1-12 record having been outscored by 144 points over the season.  Normally, in low scoring games, I prefer to take the points but the problem with the Panthers is that their offense just doesn’t score; give me the Falcons to win and cover on the road against a bad opponent; put that in the “Betting Bundle.”

Bears at Browns – 3 (38): The Bears have won three of their last four games and have impressed in each game (see above).  The trade deadline acquisition of Montez Sweat seems to have been an energy tonic for the Bears’ defense.  The Browns’ defense is for real; that unit is capable of keeping the Browns in a game against any opponent and Joe Flacco had a brilliant outing last week for the Browns.  Both teams are still playoff-relevant, but the loser here may lose its relevance.

Bucs at Packers – 3 (42):  Both teams need this game.  The Bucs lead the NFC South via tiebreakers; the Falcons have a patsy this week in the Panthers and the Saints are playing the Giants who – – having won 3 games in a row – – may have emptied the gun.  The Packers need the game to stay within hailing distance of the Lions who seem to be coming back to the pack – – pun intended – – in the NFC North.

Texans at Titans – 3 (37):  The spread opened with the Texans as 3.5-point favorite; given the current spread, that is a major line move indeed.  The injury bug may be residing in Houston at the moment because the list of players who did not practice for the Texans early this week included:

• Will Anderson, Jr. – – LB
• Blake Cashman – – LB
• Nico Collins – – WR
• Noah Fant – – TE
• CJ Stroud – – QB

The magnitude of the line shift indicates to me that the betting public assumes CJ Stroud will not clear concussion protocol and the Texans will go with Davis Mills this week.

Giants at Saints – 6 (38.5):  This is not a typical selection for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week, but it matches up two teams with losing records who offer only marginal viewing excitement potential.  I do not believe that Tommy DeVito is the long-term replacement for Eli Manning as the QB for the Giants.  Having said that, Tommy DeVito is playing well and very confidently.  The Saints need the game much more than the Giants do, but the Saints’ team has had more than its share of turmoil this year and no one looks to be playing comfortably on the Saints’ sideline.  Maybe the major drama element for this game is:

• Who will be on the receiving end of a temper tantrum by Derek Carr this week?

Jets at Dolphins – 9 (37.5):  The spread opened with the Dolphins as 13.5-point favorites and has been dropping all week long.  In fact, this morning, I found the line at 8 points at one Internet sportsbook.  The Total Line has also moved a lot starting the week at 41 points.  The Dolphins are hit with injuries on their offensive line and with a leg injury to Tyreek Hill, who did not practice earlier this week.  With Hill in and out of the game – – and playing at less than 100% efficiency – – last week, the Dolphins’ offense was not nearly what it has been in previous games.

Niners – 12 at Cards (48):  All I can say here is that if you think the Cards can win this game, you can get them on the Money Line at +590.  Over to you …

Commanders at Rams – 6 (49.5):  The Total Line opened at 46 points and rose slowly but surely as the week wore on.  I found it as high as 50.5 points this morning and as low as 49 points.  The Commanders’ defense has given up the most points in the league so far in 2023 – – 395 points or 30.4 points per game.  That explains why the Commanders record is 4-9 and how they lost 4 in a row prior to their BYE Week last week.  The Rams are not the offensive juggernaut they were a couple years ago when they won the Super Bowl, but they are an above average offense.  I think the Rams will put up some big numbers on the stat sheet and on the scoreboard here; I like the Rams to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.  I also like the game to go OVER because the Commanders will need to play keep-up/catch-up and will be throwing the ball all over the field; put that in the “Betting Bundle” too.

Cowboys at Bills – 2 (50.5):  Not only have the Cowboys won 5 games in a row, but they have also scored 30+ points in all five wins; they are hitting on all cylinders.  The Bills’ playoff hopes will suffer more with a loss here than would the Cowboys’ hopes but a loss by the Cowboys would make their pursuit of the #1 seed in the NFC awfully difficult.I think this is the Game of the Week based on the quality of the two teams plus the importance to both sides.  The weather in Buffalo is often a factor in mid-December but the forecast for gametime has temperatures in the 40s with the possibility of a “shower in the area.”  Should be a great game to watch…

Chiefs – 7.5 at Pats (37):  The spread here opened at 10.5 points and has dropped slowly and steadily all week long.  The Chiefs have lost three of their last four games even though the Chiefs’ offense, which had been problematical early in the season, has looked like a much more competent and cohesive unit.  The Pats won last week with Bailey Zappe lighting it up (see above).  I think both defenses will do well in this game.

(Sun Nite): Ravens – 3 at Jags (43):  Lots of line movement here; the spread opened at 6 points and the Total Line opened at 39.5 points.  I guess folks were impressed with Trevor Lawrence’s grit and determination in last week’s loss to the Browns where he played with what looked like 3 pounds of tape on his injured ankle.  The Jags get to play another bruising defense this week and still hold a one-game lead over both the Colts and Texans going into the weekend action.

(Mon Nite): Eagles – 4 at Seahawks (47.5):  The Eagles have lost two games in a row and have lost both of them badly.  Granted those two opponents were the Niners and the Cowboys, but still …  The Eagles’ defense has been porous in their recent losses and cannot cover for situations where the offense turns the ball over – – as the Eagles did 3 times last week.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks have lost 4 games in a row, but a win here would even them up at 7-7 with 3 winnable games left on the schedule.  This is an important game for the Eagles; it is a vital game for the Seahawks.

So let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Rams – 6 over Commanders
• Rams/Commanders OVER 49.5
• Falcons – 3 over Panthers

And here are two Money Line Parlays for fun:

• Chiefs @ minus-360
• Falcons @ minus-160   $100 wager to win $108.

And …

• Rams @ minus 275
• Ravens @ minus 170  $100 wager to win $117.

Finally, I will close this week with this comment by former head football coach at Michigan St., Duffy Daugherty:

“I could have been a Rhodes Scholar except for my grades.”

            But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………