Football Friday 1/13/23

I am writing this on Thursday evening because tomorrow is a travel day for me.  However, I am unlikely to be finished by midnight; so, I will declare this a Football Friday and move on.  As always, I will begin with the updated results of the last Six-Pack and the cumulative results to date:

• College = 0-0-0                                              Season Total = 20-12-0
• NFL = 2-2-0                                                    Season Total = 22-22-3
• Money Line Parlays = 2-1                             Season Total = 9-23
• Profit/Loss = +$391                                       Season Total = +$133

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Earlier this week, I wrote about the CFP Championship Game and about the financial impact of expanding the CFP tournament field.  I want to repeat my concern here about overexpanding the field all the way to 12 teams.  The financial numbers add up – – for now.  My worry is that there could be way too many uninteresting games in the early rounds of the playoff bracket that may sour some of the audience.

As a model, think back to the days where there were about 8 or 10 college football bowl games.  Those games were all a big deal because they were rare, and they pitted two very good teams against each other.  Now there are more than 40 bowl games and far too many of them involve mediocre teams.  The upshot is that many of the bowl games are as attractive as a porta-potty.

And spare me the argument that more slots in the playoffs will make the product more “inclusive”.  Last year, we saw what happened when spunky Cincy came from outside the “Power 5” and showed what it could do against Alabama.  What it did was demonstrate that going 13-0 against an AAC schedule is not nearly as impressive as surviving a season atop the SEC; the game was a rout.

I understand that finances rule the college football world and finances say expanding to 12 teams is a good idea.  I also think that 12 teams will represent over-expansion and that there will going to be too many playoff games where we see a team like Georgia or Alabama or Ohio State drop 50 or more points on the likes of good ol’ Upstart U.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The NFL has a new overtime rule just for the playoffs.  There are wrinkles in the fabric but those are details; the important thing is that both teams will get a possession in overtime unless there is a defensive score on that first possession.  Don’t worry about other minor changes; if/when there is an OT game, the networks will have detailed screen graphics ready for you to peruse.  Focus instead on this:

• It is now advantageous for the team winning the overtime coin toss to kick off instead of opting to receive.

Think about it.  By playing defense first, the team that wins the coin toss will know exactly what it has to do in order to win the game on that guaranteed second possession.

• If the opponent scores a TD on that first possession – – the worst possible situation – – then every place on the field becomes ‘four-down territory”.
• If the defense held and the second possession begins with the score still tied, then the offense is really just trying to get into field goal range meaning the defense has a much bigger scoring zone to defend.

I will be interested to see what coaches choose to do in playoff OT games this year – – and there is usually about one a year over the last decade.

Earlier this week, I said that we would be hearing about some tried and true topics for this time of the year.  In Thursday’s Washington Post, the lead column for the day had this headline:

“NFL hiring is under scrutiny.  Do the owners really care?”

My guess is that they really do not care – – so long as their hiring practices remain at the level of “scrutiny” and do not progress to the point where those hiring practices spur some sort of action that is economically deleterious.  Just saying…

The NY Jets missed the playoffs – again – this year despite having a better than average defense.  It sounds like a broken record, but the Jets still do not have a quality QB.  In fact, I would argue that their last quality QB was Joe Namath and Broadway Joe’s career peak was about 50 years ago.  Without going into the history of Jets’ QBs since the 1970s, let me provide a shortened chronology:

• 2008:  Jets take a flier on a late-career version of Bret Favre
• 2009:  The Jets draft Mark Sanchez
• 2013:  The Jets turn to Geno Smith
• 2015:  Ryan Fitzpatrick is at the helm
• 2016:  The Jets draft Christian Hackenberg in Round 2; he never takes a snap.
• 2017:  Josh McCown is under center
• 2018:  The Jets draft Sam Darnold – – who may have found a home in Carolina.

Over the past two seasons the Jets have used Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco and Josh Johnson in the QB position.  The word for that chronology is – – FUTILE.

That level of futility brings to mind an observation by author Stanley Crouch:

“When people conclude that all is futile, then the absurd becomes the norm.”

NFL teams go from worst in their division in one season to first in that same division in the following season.  It happens at least once every other season.  The Jags really overdid it this year winning the AFC South after posting a horrible 3-14 record in 2021.  The improvement of Trevor Lawrence in his second season has been outstanding and the most obvious explanation is that there is a different set of coaches in Jax and that the team ambience is very different this year.  I won’t pretend to know how or why that quantum leap in Lawrence’s performance came about, but the result on the field is obvious.

The half-season audition by Jeff Saturday for the Colts’ head coaching job came to a merciful end.  The Colts were a hot mess in 2022; Saturday is not to blame for any of the roster inadequacies and he did seem to put some verve into the style of play by the team.  However, it seems to me that Jeff Saturday falls into the category of:

• Very Good player/Not-So-Good coach

He is not alone in that category – – one which spans several sports.  To give an NFL example of another person in that category, consider Norm Van Brocklin.

The Texans fired Lovie Smith; that makes two years in a row the Texans have fired a Black head coach after only one season; talk about bad optics.  Smith was 3-13-1 with the Texans this year – – but if you saw them play, the team did not just mail it in; the Texans won two of their last 3 games.  Like the Jets, imagine if they had a REAL NFL QB on the team, what they might be able to do…

The Cards fired Kliff Kingsbury after the team gave him a contract extension just last year.  Cards’ GM Steve Keim also got an extension last year through the 2027 NFL season and he too is stepping down – – presumably for health reasons since he has been on a leave of absence for health reasons for about the last month.  In his four years on the job, Kingsbury was 28-37-1 and the Cards were 4-13 this year. I ran across a statement that was sufficiently strange that I went and checked it out:

• No coach in the history of the Cards’ franchise has lasted more than 6 seasons with the team.
• Jim Hanifan was the Cards’ coach from 1980 through 1985.
• Ken Whisenhunt was the Cards’ coach from 2007 through 2012.
• That’s it; that’s the list – – and remember the Cards have been in the NFL since it began in 1920.

Now that the regular season is over, I think we can draw the following tentative conclusion:

• Aaron Rodgers proved to the NFL that it need not worry about ayahuasca as a PED that needs to be in the NFL testing regimen any more than it needs to test for the ingestion of spinach based on Popeye the Sailor’s performance.

The NFL and the Cleveland Browns took a step toward enshrinement in the Hypocrisy Hall of Fame last week.  Bernie Kosar was fired from his job as a team radio announcer; here is the deal:

• Sports betting became legal in Ohio.
• Kosar bet $13K on the Browns against the Steelers and said any winnings would go to charity.  (The Browns lost so that never came into play.)
• The NFL says that none of its players or employees can bet on NFL games.
• So Kosar was fired…
• And yet, the NFL is perfectly happy to have gambling ads on its programming and allows TV announcers to make clear and obvious references to things like the spread and the Total Line in their telecasts.

Bernie Kosar was a player, but those days are well in the past.  I have no idea if Kosar is any good as a “radio guy” but that is not the point.  There is no way that a “radio guy” could possibly damage the “integrity of the game”.  What Bernie Kosar did was legal, and it is something that the NFL exploits economically.  And for that he was fired…

The philosopher William Hazlitt had a great observation about hypocrisy and hypocrites:

“The only vice that cannot be forgiven is hypocrisy.  The repentance of a hypocrite is itself hypocrisy.”

Here are some comments about a few games from last week:

Texans 32  Colts 31:  The Texans won at the end by converting a 4^th and 20 situation scoring a TD and then converting a 2-point conversion.  That gave the Texans 2 wins in their last 3 games and a final season record of 3-13-1; ironically, that cost the Texans the overall #1 pick in the Draft next April.  The Bears are now “on the clock” …

Commanders 26  Cowboys 6:  This was the NFL debut of Sam Howell as the QB for the Commanders.  Here is his stat line for the day:

• 11 of 19 for 169 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT
• 5 rushes for 35 yards and 1 TD

What does that do to the Commanders’ thinking as they look to upgrade their QB position?  It tells me that the team will not keep Carson Wentz and pay Wentz $26.2M next year, but that they are still in the market for a QB.

Panthers 10  Saints 7:  It is not often that you see an NFL team win a game with only 32 net yards passing; the Panthers did that last week.  Sam Darnold was 5 of 15 for 43 yards and he threw 2 INTs – – but the Panthers won the game.  The Saints scored on their first possession in the game and missed two field goal attempts for the rest of the game.  This game was butt-ugly.

Last week was not a good week for teams to score 16 points.  The Ravens, Rams, Giants, Packers and Titans all scored 16 points last week.  And all of them lost those games…

Before moving on to this week’s games, let me present a comment from Bob Molinaro in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot about NFL playoff officiating:

“New rules: It’s curious how during NFL postseason games almost nobody on the offensive line holds, pass defenders get away with grabbing receivers, and rarely is anybody detected for illegal blocks on kick returns. It appears that the refs are following orders to let ‘em play. But if a laissez-faire approach is good for the playoffs, why not just let ‘em play all season?”

 

Super Wild-Card Weekend Games:

 

I have a friend who is an avid NFL fan, but the “team of his youth” has been unkind to him.  He was born in Ann Arbor, MI and grew up with the Lions.  Over the years, he has become a fan of the game in addition to rooting for the Lions to become a factor in the league.  Over the years he has developed heroes on other teams, and he has found anti-heroes.

This weekend, he faces a dilemma in rooting interest in the Bucs/Cowboys game.  He “hates” the Cowboys and he “hates” Tom Brady.  When I asked him who he wanted to win the game, the noise he made sounded like the proverbial primal scream.

(Sat 4:30 PM EST) Seahawks at Niners – 9.5 (42.5):  The Niners have won 10 games in a row and 5 of those games have been with Brock Purdy as the QB.  The Niners’ defense is top-shelf but it is not the defense that has carried the team in Purdy’s 5 victories; the Niners offense has averaged 34 points per game with Purdy at the helm.  The matchup here that strongly favors the Niners is the run game.  The Niners average 139 yards per game on the ground; the Seahawks defense allows 150 yards per game (30^th in the NFL).  I think this is a mismatch and that the game could become a rout.  I’ll take the Niners and lay the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Sat 8:15 PM EST) Chargers – 2.5 at Jags (47.5):  This game opened as a pick ’em game, but the line has moved steadily toward the Chargers all week long.  The Jags beat the Chargers in the regular season but that was ages ago.  I think this game will come down to the two QBs and their passing attack and that is where the Chargers have an edge because the Chargers’ pass defense gives up about 40 yards per game fewer than the Jags’ pass defense.  I smell a shootout here, so I’ll take the game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Sun 1:00 PM EST) Dolphins at Bills – 13 (43.5):  The weather is supposed to be cold – – in the high 20s – – but with sunshine and no outrageous wind conditions.  That is an advantage for the Dolphins – – sort of.  The problem here for the Dolphins is that Tua is out, and Teddy Bridgewater is questionable.  Meaning no disrespect to Skylar Thompson or any graduates of K-State, I will be shocked if he can play on an even par with Josh Allen.  These division rivals split two games in the regular season; each team won at home; the Bills are at home here.

(Sun 4:30 PM EST) Giants at Vikes – 3 (48):  I have no idea how this game will unfold; these two teams are highly unpredictable.  These guys played each other on Christmas Eve and the Vikes won on a 61-yard field goal as time expired.  Who knows what these folks have in store for the audience this time around?  For that reason alone, this is a game you want to be sure to watch.

(Sun 8:15 PM EST) Ravens at Bengals – 8 (40.5):  These teams played last week.  The issue here is the QB situation for the Ravens.  Lamar Jackson has not played for weeks with a “sprained knee”; Tyler Huntley did not play last week.  If neither Huntley nor Jackson is available and the Ravens have to go with Anthony Brown, it will be a short playoff stint for the Ravens.  These division rivals split their two games in the regular season.  The Bengals enter this game with 8 consecutive wins to their credit.

(Mon 8:15 PM EST) Cowboys -2.5 at Bucs (45.5):  This is the “Chamber of Horrors Game” for my friend from Ann Arbor.  He should stop reading here because I am sure he does not want to see that I like Tom Brady and the Bucs plus the points here; put it in the Six-Pack.

So let me review the abbreviated Six-Pack for this weekend:

• Niners – 9.5 over Seahawks
• Chargers/Jags OVER 47.5 points
• Bucs +2.5 against Cowboys

            Just for fun, here is some Money Line parlay action:

• Giants @ +140
• Niners @ -500                                    To win $188

And …

• Jags @ +130
• Bengals @ – 400                                To win $187

Finally, for no particular reason, let me close today with these words from H. L. Mencken:

“Immorality:  the morality of those who are having a better time.”

But don’t get me wrong I love sports………