Football Friday 12/3/21

Last week was a mini-Football Friday; this week’s version will be a tad bigger – – but not like they were during the main body of the college football season.  So, let’s just call this one the first of several midi-Football Fridays.  And as usual, let me begin with a review of last week’s Six-Pack.

• College:  1-2-0
• NFL:  2-1-0
• Total:  3-3=0
• Money Line Parlays:  0-1  Minus $100

That brings the combined results for the season to:

• College:  14-15-0
• NFL:  20-22-1
• Total:  34-37-1
• Money Line Parlays:  2-6   Minus $198.

 

College Football Commentary:

 

            The Linfield College Wildcats won their second-round game in the Division III football playoffs last week beating St John’s (MN) in a tight game 31-28.  This week, the Wildcats are on the road again heading off to Belton, TX to take on the Crusaders of  Mary Hardin-Baylor University.  The Crusaders come to the game with a 12-0 record and an explosive offense that has scored 72 points or more  three times this season.  Go Wildcats!

It is time to award the Brothel Defense Award for 2021.  The award goes to the college football defense that allows everyone to score at will.  This year the award goes to:

• UMass:  The defense allowed 43.1 points per game in 2021.  This is the second time in 3 years that UMass has earned this “award”…

There has been a lot of coach-shuffling among a half-dozen big time programs this year but there is one coaching change at a Division 1-AA school that might be an interesting opportunity for a young coach seeking to make a mark.  The University of Delaware fired Danny Rocco as its head football coach earlier this week.  Delaware has a rich tradition in small college football over the years going back to the days when Tubby Raymond’s wing-T offense was a perennial winner.  Delaware is in the Colonial Athletic Association which has been dominated by James Madison University in recent years – – but James Madison is moving up to Division 1-A meaning there is an opportunity for Delaware to “reassert itself”.  This could be a real opportunity for a young coach…

Last week was a tumultuous week in college football with plenty of top shelf teams taking it on the chin…

Maryland 40  Rutgers 16:  Neither team is “top-shelf”, but the winner would be bowl eligible, and the loser would not.  Rutgers is not.

Michigan 42  Ohio St. 27:  The monkey is off Jim Harbaugh’s back.  This was a dominating win by the Wolverines; with 2 losses it is impossible to see how Ohio St. makes the CFP.  Michigan moves on to the Big-10 Championship Game against Iowa this week.

Baylor 27  Texas Tech 24:  With this win – and a win by Oklahoma St. – Baylor will play in the Big-12 Championship Game this week.

Wake Forest 41  BC 10:  Wake needed a win to play Pitt in the ACC Championship Game this week.

North Texas 45  UT San Antonio 23:  UTSA was 11-0 entering this game and North Texas was 5-6.  This was a shocker and may be characterized as a “look-ahead game” for UTSA as they will play W. Kentucky for the C-USA Championship this week.  Meanwhile, the Mean Green is bowl-eligible.

New Mexico St. 44  UMass 27:  With this result, the Aggies advance their record to 2-10 while UMass sits at 1-11 for the season.

Alabama 24  Auburn 22 (4 OT):  It took a minor miracle for Alabama to get this game into OT; the Tide trailed 10-0 and looked totally discombobulated for the first 3 quarters of the game.

Oregon 38  Oregon St. 29:  Oregon now gets a rematch with Utah for the PAC-12 Championship and that winner goes to the Rose Bowl Game.

Va Tech 29  UVa 24:  Both teams finish the season at 6-6; both will go to a meaningless bowl game; why not just stage a rematch?

LSU 27  Texas A&M 24:  Somehow, LSU salvaged bowl-eligibility out of this train wreck of a season…

Minnesota 23  Wisconsin 13:  That loss takes Wisconsin out of the Big-10 Championship Game.

Oklahoma St. 37  Oklahoma 33:  The Cowboys move on to play Baylor in the Big-12 Championship Game and keep some remote hope alive about a CFP invitation.  The Sooners lost the game and then lost their coach who jumped ship to go to USC…

Notre Dame 45  Stanford 14:  The Irish finish the season at 11-1 and their coach heads south to LSU.

Iowa 28  Nebraska 21:  That win puts Iowa in the Big-10 Championship Game against Michigan.  The Huskers end their season with a 3-9 record.

Cincy 35  E. Carolina 13:  The Bearcats finish the year at 12-0 and face Houston in the AAC Championship game this weekend.

Washington St. 40  Washington 13:  This rivalry game was never in doubt in the second half…

 

The SHOE Tournament Field:

 

The SHOE Tournament is a figment of my imagination.  What I would want to do is to take the 8 “worst teams” in the country and seed them from worst to least worst and then play them off in a bracket.  The difference here is that the loser must play on, and the winner can go home knowing they are not the SHOE Team of the year.  And the SHOE Team is not a label any team would want because it stands for Steaming Heap Of Excrement.

Here are my teams in seeded order and a short review of why they are where they are:

• 8^th Seed (the “Least Worst” of the Field): Temple – – 3-9  In their 3 wins (one over a Division 1-AA team), the Owls scored a total of 120 points (40 points per game).  In their 9 losses, Temple never scored more than 14 points in a single game.  Hard to win if you don’t score points…
• 7^th Seed:  Kansas – – 2-10  That win over Texas almost got them out of this tournament entirely but looking at the overall schedule, the other win was over a Division 1-AA team and 6 of the losses were by 25 points or more.
• 6th Seed:  Arizona – – 1-11  The Wildcats have not been remotely impressive this year ranking 124^th in the country in scoring offense (17.2 points per game) and 98^th in the country in scoring defense (31.4 points per game given up).  They get a low seed here because they faced stiffer competition that other tournament invitees to come.
• 5^th Seed:  Arkansas St. – – 2-10  The two wins were over a Division 1-AA opponent and a not-very-good La-Monroe team.  In addition, the Red Wolves’ defense ranked 124^th in the country in points allowed (38.6 points per game).
• 4^th Seed:  Akron – – 2-10  The two wins were over a Division 1-AA team and then over Bowling Green in early October.  The Zips lost their last 6 games – all against MAC opponents – and managed to lose to Temple earlier this season giving up 45 points to the offensively challenged Owls.
• 3^rd Seed:  Florida International – – 1-11  That win was over a Division 1-AA team back in Week 1 (September 2^nd to be exact).  Five of their subsequent losses have been by 33 points or more.
• 2^nd Seed:  UMass – – 1-11  The winner of the Brothel Defense Award usually makes it to the SHOE Tournament field and UMass is no exception.  Five of those eleven losses were by 38 points or more.
• 1^st Seed (the “Most Worst” of the Field):  UConn – – 1-11  What separates the Huskies here is that their one win was by 5 points over an Ivy League opponent AND the Huskies provided the only win for UMass this season.  Ugh!  Moreover, seven of the eleven losses were by 31 points or more.

Let the worst team continue to lose…

 

College Games of Interest:

 

Baylor at Oklahoma St – 6 (46):  On October 2^nd these two teams met on this field and the Cowboys prevailed 24-14.

Houston at Cincy – 10.5 (53):  This is the College Game of the Week even though the AAC championship is no big deal.  Houston is 11-1 for the year; Cincy is 12-0.  Cincy has a legitimate shot at breaking into the CFP – – but they need a convincing win here to retain that status.  Both teams can score; Cincy ranks 8^th in the country in scoring offense and Houston ranks 9^th.  On defense, Cincy ranks 3^rd in the nation in points allowed per game while Houston ranks 19^th .

Georgia – 6 vs Alabama (49.5):  This is a big game for Alabama; if they get blown out by 4 TDs or more, they will not be in the CFP.  Nick Saban tends to do well in “big games”.  This is also a big game for Georgia because it has been a while since Georgia beat Bama – – 13 years to be exact.  I see a defensive game here; I like the game to stay UNDER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Wake Forest vs Pitt – 3 (71):  If you like offensive fireworks, I suggest you tune into this game on Saturday night.  Wake is 3^rd in the country in scoring offense (42.9 points per game) while Pitt is 4^th in the country in scoring offense (42.8 points per game).  I think both teams will score early and often; I like the game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Iowa vs Michigan – 11 (43.5):  This is a classic let-down game for the Wolverines after beating Ohio St. for the first time in forever last week.  The Hawkeye’s defense has been opportunistic all year long; Iowa is 3^rd in the nation in Turnover Margin.  Meanwhile, the Iowa offense is vestigial; it ranks 123^rd in the country; the Michigan defense should feast on this.  I think this game will be low scoring and I think that line is fat; I’ll take Iowa plus the points here; put it in the Six-Pack.

Utah St. vs. San Diego St. – 6 (50):  This is for all the marbles in the Mountain West conference.  San Diego St. has been winning with its defense and has compiled an 11-1 record so far.  In 6 of their last 7 games, the Aztecs have not scored more than 23 points – – yet they won 5 of those 6 games.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Back before the season began, I listed 8 NFL coaches who might be on a hot seat in 2021.  I thought I would take a moment today to update that list; here are my original eight:

1. David Cully (Texans):  Yes, it is his first year; and yes, the roster is sub-standard.  But the Texans are hard to watch even if they are giving good effort.
2. Vic Fangio (Broncos):  I said he needed serious playoff contention to survive, and the Broncos are still in the picture.  His hot seat may be cooling off a bit…
3. Kliff Kingsbury (Cards):  I said he needed a playoff appearance to survive, and it looks almost certain that he will get one.
4. Matt LaFleur (Packers):  I worried about the apparent falling out he had with Aaron Rodgers but none of that seems to have shown up on the field.
5. Mike McCarthy (Cowboys):  After running out to a huge lead in the AFC East, if the Cowboys spit the bit and sink to a wildcard in the playoffs, I still think McCarthy could be gone.
6. Matt Nagy (Bears):  Fans in Chicago will help him pack his things and get them on a moving van out of town if given the opportunity…
7. Zac Taylor (Bengals):  I said then that this was a longshot entry on my list.  Zac Taylor is secure in his position in Cincy.
8. Mike Zimmer (Vikes):  He got a 3-year contract extension in September; he ain’t going anywhere…

I would want to put three other coaches on a watch list here:

1. Pete Carroll (Seahawks):  The Seahawks are a major disappointment and Carroll seems overwhelmed by what to do to get things on the right course.
2. Joe Judge (Giants):  The Giants were never serious Super Bowl contenders for 2021, but they have underperformed and underachieved.
3. Matt Ruhle (Panthers):  All I can say is that owner, David Tepper, seems like a very impatient man and the Panthers are not playing well these days.

And I have two first-year coaches who will not be terminated this year because it is too early to do so but who have not shown impressive on-field results:

1. Urban Meyer (Jags):  Like the Texans, that team is hard to watch…
2. Nick Siriani (Eagles):  The team is inconsistent from week to week and his play-calling decisions are from somewhere in low Earth orbit…

 

Football Team 17  Seahawks 15:  Don’t laugh; the Football Team looks like a playoff team to me.  They are 2 games behind the Cowboys in the NFC East and have two game s against the Cowboys in the next 4 games.  The Seahawks are playing out the string.

Falcons 21  Jags 14:  The Falcons ran out to a 21-3 lead in the middle of the 3^rd quarter and managed not to blow the lead in the 4^th quarter.  Progress!!

Dolphins 33  Panthers 10:  The Cam Newton homecoming is not looking all that wonderful.  He was pulled from the game with this stat line:

• 5 of 21 for 92 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs

Giants 13  Eagles 7:  The only saving grace for folks watching this game is that it was close all day long.  The quality of play, however, was a different story…

Bengals 41  Steelers 10:  The Bengals scored on their first 4 possessions.  After they punted on the fifth, Ben Roethlisberger immediately threw a Pick-Six to make the score 31-3 and turn this game into a laugher.

Jets 21  Texans 14:  The Texans led 14-3 in the middle of the second quarter and then the offense went silent.  The total offense for the two teams combined here was 468 yards.  Tyrod Taylor had the better stat line of the QBs in the game with this one:

• 17 of 26 for158 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT
• Remember that was the better stat line…

Bucs 38  Colts 31:  This game was back-and-forth all day long.  Leonard Fournette gained 100 yards rushing in the game and scored 3 rushing TDS and he had a receiving TD too.

Broncos 28  Chargers 13:  Here is what you need to know about the Chargers’ running game here.  Their leading rusher was Justin Herbert, and he gained a total of 36 yards.

Pats 36  Titans 13:  The Titans were shut out in the second half.  Mac Jones had a good day with this stat line:

• 23 of 32 for 310 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs.

Packers 36  Rams 28:  The Rams are 7-4 at this point and have not looked like a well-oiled machine on offense or defense for the last several weeks.  If the Rams do not find a way to stop the run, they could miss the playoffs.

Niners 34  Vikes 26:  The Niners outgained the Vikes by 100 yards in the game.  Moreover, the Niners ran the ball for 208 yards on the Vikes’ defense.

 

NFL Games:

 

Teams with a BYE Week are:

• Browns:  It seems as if things are coming apart at the seams in Cleveland.  The Browns are 6-6; they are last in the AFC North and already have 2 division losses.
• Packers:  Aaron Rodgers’ pinky toe gets a week off…  They still lead the Vikes by 3.5 games in the NFC North race.
• Panthers:  Christian McCaffrey is hurt again and their QB situation is a hot mess at best.  They need a week to try to pull it back together; playoff hopes are dim at best.
• Titans:  They have lost two in a row and lead the Colts by 2 games with 5 left to play.  The offense has to find a new identity without Derrick Henry; they have a week here to go and search…

Vikes – 7 at Lions (47):  No Dalvin Cook for the Vikes this week; he is out with a shoulder injury.  I don’t think that swings the tide in favor of the Lions by any means, but his absence keeps me from making a Six-Pack selection in favor of the Vikes.  This game is critically important to the Vikes if they want to have a ghost of a chance of catching the Packers.

Cards – 7.5 at Bears (43.5):  We know that the Cards are rested off their BYE Week last week; we think that Kyler Murray is back and ready to play; he practiced this week.  There is a big difference between a healthy Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy.  The Bears beat the Lions with Andy Dalton at QB; if Justin Fields is healthy, do the Bears go back to him now?

Bucs – 11 at Falcons (51):  The Falcons are 3 full games behind the Bucs in the NFC South; their aspirations now need to be limited to making the playoffs which is anything but a sure thing with their record at 5-6.  A loss here would make that goal much more difficult to attain.  The Bucs have too much talent; this game will not be fun to watch.

(Sun Nite) Broncos at Chiefs – 9.5 (47): This game was flexed into the Sunday nighttime slot.  The Total Line opened at 49 points; it dropped to 47.5 in less than 24 hours and then shed another half-point during the week.  The Broncos had a big win over the Chargers last week; the Chiefs had a big time resting up on their BYE Week last week.  I think the Chiefs are about to go on a run to the playoffs starting here; Andy Reid’s teams typically come back from the BYE Week on a tear.

Colts – 10 at Texans (46): This spread opened at 7.5 points; it then jumped from that number to 9 points without any intermediate stops on Monday morning; then it eased up to this level over the rest of the week.  Jonathan Taylor should have a huge day against the Texans run defense ranked 31^st in the league.  Absent a couple of major brain cramps by Carson Wentz, this should put the Colts’ record above .500.

Eagles – 7 at Jets (45.5):  Will Jalen Hurts play?  Somehow, the Eagles’ offense built on running the ball and having a mobile QB who can improvise would be missing one aspect of that offense if Gardner Minshew II is the QB.  The Eagles can still convince themselves they are a playoff team; the Jets cannot do that without giggling.  It was a close call, but this is my Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Chargers at Bengals – 3 (50):  Both teams need a win here.  The Chargers are a game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West, but a loss here puts them at .500.  The Bengals are a game behind the Ravens and do not want to lose any ground with the season already into December.  I think the difference here is Joe Mixon and the Bengals’ running game.  The Chargers have the worst run defense in the NFL allowing an average of 145.3 yards per game.  I like the Bengals at home to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

Giants at Dolphins – 4 (40.5):  The Total Line here opened the week at 42; it eased on down to this level by Wednesday mid-day and has stayed at this level since then.  The Dolphins are 5-7 on the season but they have won 4 in a row.  The Pats have won 6 in a row; along with the Dolphins, the Chiefs have also won 4 in a row; those are the longest extant winning streaks in the NFL.  This should be a very low-scoring affair…

Football Team at Raiders – 2 (49):  The Football Team has won 3 games in a row to insert themselves into the playoff extrapolations; the Raiders may have exorcised some demons with their OT win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.  I think both offenses will show up here and play well; I’ll take the game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Ravens – 4 at Steelers (44):  I said earlier this week that the Steelers were a team in free-fall.  The only saving grace for them here is that the Ravens have looked out of sync for the last couple of games too.  The Steelers need this game desperately; a loss would all but eliminate them from winning the AFC North and would make a playoff push very difficult.

Jags at Rams – 13 (48):  The Rams have lost 3 in a row and have not looked good doing that.  The Jags have lost 3 in a row – – and the Jags rarely look good doing anything at all.  This is a must-win game for the Rams; moreover, this is a must-win-and-look-good-doing-it game for the Rams.

Niners – 3 at Seahawks (45.5):These are teams headed in different directions; the Niners have won 3 in a row and have been dominant running the ball.  The Seahawks have lost 3 in a row and have been unimpressive in all those losses.  The Seahawks give up 124.9 yards per game on the ground; I think the Niners will run the ball down their throats this week.  I like the Niners to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Mon Nite) Pats at Bills – 2.5 (42):  The Total Line opened at 45 points; there have been no precipitous drops as the week unfolded but a steady erosion down to the current level.  One Internet sportsbook has it at 41.5 points this morning  This is the Game of the Week; the winner will be in first place in the AFC East; that is important for seeding and home field advantage in the playoffs but both teams look to be shoo-ins to make the playoffs.

So let me review the Six-Pack for the week before I give you 2 Money Line Parlays:

• Georgia/Alabama UNDER 49.5
• Wake/Pitt OVER 71
• Iowa + 11 vs Michigan
• Bengals – 3 over Chargers
• Niners – 3 over Seahawks
• Football Team/Raiders OVER 49

And here are two Money Line parlays for this week:

• Bengals @ minus-160
• Niners @ minus-150
• $100 wager wins $171

Second parlay:

• Bengals @ minus-160
• Niners @ minus-150
• Football Team @ +115
• $100 Wager wins $482

Finally, here is an entry from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Intellectual:  Somebody who actually thinks about stuff.  These dangerous subversives are notoriously good at blending into normal society, but as a general rule, if the person next to you wears glasses and has never slopped a five-dollar tip into a pole dancer’s G-string, call your local authorities immediately.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………