Mid-Season MLB Commentary

The MLB All-Star Break is the unofficial halfway mark in the season.  As noted before, there are plenty of surprises in the standings as of this morning but there is not necessarily correlation between those “surprises” and other data.  For example:

  • The Chicago White Sox lead the AL Central and are 5 games over .500.  This team has lost 100+ games in each of the last three seasons and has been uncompetitive.  So, in a big city like Chicago, their attendance must be soaring – – right?  Not so.  The White Sox average only 23,137 per game which is about 12,200 fewer fans than the Cubs who are not in first place in their division.
  • The Washington Nationals are one game under .500.  The expectation back in April was that the Nats would flirt with losing 100 games in 2026; to do that, they would need to go 14-51 for the rest of the season.  Nats’ games are exciting; no lead is safe for either team in any game.  The Nats have scored 516 runs this year – – more than the Dodgers by the way.  The Nats have also given up 509 runs this year; only the woebegone Rockies have given up more.  So, attendance must be soaring in the Nation’s Capital – – right?  Not so, average attendance is only 23,264 fans per game which is DOWN more than 1500 fans per game from last season.
  • The Toronto Blue Jays were in the World Series last season; this year they are dead last in the AL East.  Las Vegas projects that the Jays have a zero percent chance of winning the division and only a 16 percent chance to make the playoffs.  So, naturally, attendance is down in Toronto – – right?  Not so.  The Blue Jays are drawing 9,487 MORE fans per game in 2026 as compared to 2025.
  • The Miami Marlins are seven games over .500 and only 4 games behind the Braves in the NL East.  The Marlins lost 100 games in 2025 and finished 33 games out of first place in the NL East.  So, attendance must be up in Miami – – right?  Well, yes; attendance is up but by only 802 fans per game.  The Marlins home attendance is the lowest in MLB save for the A’s who play in a minor league stadium in a city of comparable size to Miami.

            And speaking of the A’s and their band box stadium, the team average attendance in 2026 is actually higher than it was at this point in the 2025 season in Oakland.  The difference is not much, but 634 MORE people in Sacramento come out to see the A’s play there in 2026 than folks in Oakland did last year.  And recall that last year’s attendance average was boosted slightly as fans staged a few “reverse boycott” games where more than 30,000 fans showed up on cue to protest moving the team.

There is a constant in the MLB attendance figures.  The Tampa Bay Rays playing in Tropicana Field do not draw audiences that are commensurate with team fortunes on the field.  In 2026, attendance in Tampa/St. Pete is up almost 7,000 fans per game which makes sense since the Rays are currently leading the AL  East by 3 games and the Vegas oddsmakers give the team a 98% chance of making the playoffs this year.  That is the good news; here is the constant backbeat to that news:

  • The Rays’ home attendance is only 16,835 fans per game which is the lowest in MLB save for the Marlins and the A’s as discussed above.

One other note from looking at the MLB standings this morning …  Much as I would applaud and support a new CBA  provision involving a salary cap and salary floor for MLB, I have to admit that the data from the 2026 season undermines my argument that such a salary structure is needed.

  • The three lowest payroll teams this year are the White Sox, the Marlins and the Guardians. The White Sox and the Guardians are tied for the lead in the AL Central, and the Marlins are still in contention in the NL East (see above).
  • Meanwhile, the Mets have the second highest payroll in MLB and also have the second worst record in the NL beating out the woebegone Rockies by a game-and-a-half.
  • Also, the Blue Jays (sixth highest payroll in 2026) are in last place in their division today and the Padres (eighth highest payroll in 2026), sport a meager 47-47 record this morning.
  • Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain …

Finally, yesterday marked the anniversary of one of the worst ideas in US sports history – – Disco Demolition Night at Commiskey Park in Chicago.  It ended in a full-fledged riot; it took police about an hour to restore order and 39 people were arrested.  So, let me close with this observation about disco from Martha Reeves – – lead singer for Martha and the Vandellas:

“Disco music in the ’70s was just a call to go wild and party and dance with no thought or conscience or regard for tomorrow.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

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