Football Friday 11/14/25

In Iceland, people refer to Friday as “Little Saturday”; however, in Curmudgeon Central Friday simply means Football Friday; so, let me kick things off with a review of yet another disappointing “Betting Bundle” from last week:

  • Spreads and Totals:  1-4-0
  • Season to Date:         15-32-2

And …

  • Money Line Parlays: 0-2       Loss = $200
  • Season to Date          8-15     Loss = $164

The Linfield University Wildcats extended their record last week to 6-2 by trouncing Puget Sound 77-14.  Tomorrow is the final regular season game for the Wildcats; they will be at home against the Bearcats of Willamette University.  Because Linfield lost to Whitworth several weeks ago, the best conference record available would be 6-1; Whitworth is undefeated in conference games so even if they lose this week, they will win the conference by a tiebreaker.  The conference champion gets a slot in the Division III playoffs; ergo, if Linfield is to be a participant, they will need an at large invitation.  Go Wildcats!

My “sleeper team” for 2025 has been Georgia Tech and the team has outperformed even my expectations.  Overall, the team is 8-1; in the ACC, Tech is one of 5 teams with only one conference loss.  The Yellowjackets had last week off and face BC this week in a conference game.  Tech needs to avoid looking ahead on the schedule; BC is not doing well this year; the Eagles are 0-6 in ACC games and only 1-9 overall.  Go Yellowjackets!

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Let me do a bit of math here – – assuming that I have counted things properly.  There are 38 bowl games for Division 1-A teams meaning there need to be 76 bowl eligible teams.  I believe there are 59 teams that have already won 6 games in the 2025 regular season meaning there are still 17 “open slots”.  There are 16 teams with 5 wins to date; so, even if all of them win this week – – assuming they all play this week – – there will still be room for a team with only 4 wins to get a bowl slot.

  • Conclusion: There are too many bowl games.

When BYU lost last week, it dropped the number of unbeaten teams to three:

  1. Indiana
  2. Ohio St.
  3. Texas A&M

When UMass lost last week, the Minutemen remained the only Division 1-A team without a victory in the 2025 season.

I mentioned above that there are 5 teams in the ACC with only one conference loss.  Obviously, there are plenty of scenarios that will lead to a conference championship game involving them.  What I think is even more interesting than the jumble at the top of the standings is that the three traditional “big dogs” in the conference are not among those teams jockeying for a chance at the conference championship:

  • Clemson is 3-4 in conference games (4-5 overall), and the Tigers might not get a bowl bid.
  • Florida St. is 1-5 in conference games (4-5 overall), and the Seminoles might not get a bowl bid.
  • Miami is 3-2 in conference games (7-2 overall); they will get a bowl bid and might get a CFP invitation.  However, those two losses for the Hurricanes were not “good losses”.

            Since I mentioned Florida St. here, there is significant unrest about the status of the football program there.  I read one report that said the buyout for Mike Norvell is $63M.  That is a whole lot of unrest there …

Knowing full well that there will be surprises in the college football world in the month of November, let me go out on a limb and predict the CFP field:

  • Indiana, Ohio St. and Texas A&M (the three unbeaten teams today) look like shoo-ins to me.
  • Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Oregon have impressive résumés.  I’ll put them in the field.
  • The ACC Champion will get in; that conference is inscrutable so just for giggles, I’ll say that my “sleeper team” wins the ACC Championship Game putting Georgia Tech in the CFP.

That makes 8 teams in the field leaving three more “power conference teams” and one “outsider team”.

  • For the “power conference slots”, I’ll go with Notre Dame, Michigan (after it beats Ohio St. in the final regular season game) and Texas Tech as the Big-12 champion
  • The “outsider team” will be – – drum roll please – – James Madison University out of the Sun Belt Conference.

Here are the latest stats as teams contend for the 2025 Brothel Defense Award:

  • UNC-Charlotte gives up 38.4 points per game
  • Oklahoma St. gives up 38.8 points per game
  • Georgia St. gives up 40.7 points per game

            And of course, there are still a dozen or so teams that are still in consideration for the SHOE Tournament to determine the worst team in the country:

  1. Boston College           1-9
  2. Colorado St.                2-7
  3. Georgia St.                  1-8
  4. Middle Tenn St.           1-8
  5. Sam Houston              1-8
  6. Nevada                        1-8
  7. Oklahoma St.              1-8
  8. Oregon St.                  2-8
  9. South Alabama           2-7
  10. UMass                         0-10
  11. UNC-Charlotte            1-8
  12. UTEP                          2-7

Here are comments on a few of last week’s games:

Texas Tech 29  BYU 7:  This is the first loss of the season for BYU.  Tech sure looks like the best team in the Big-12 to me; their only loss is by 4 points on the road to Arizona St.  The Red Raiders will be favored in their two upcoming games.

Indiana 27  Penn St. 24:  In the NFL, there is a famous play known as “The Catch”  It was Joe Montana to Dwight Clark in an NFC Championship Game in 1981; everyone who was a football fan then knows the play and remembers it.  Well, this game had college football’s version of “The Catch.  This one was Fernando Medoza to Omar Cooper, and it decided this Big-10 game.

Ohio St. 34  Purdue 10:  This was a workmanlike performance by the undefeated Buckeyes.  The defense held Purdue to 186 yards of offense for the game.

Oregon 18  Iowa 16:  It took a field goal with 3 seconds left in the game for Oregon to pull this one out.  The weather was miserable; it was cold and it rained heavily.

Wisconsin 13  Washington 10:  The Wisconsin passing offense for the day was 48 yards.  I went to check those stats and found that four players threw passes for the Badgers.

  • Hunter Simmons is a QB, and he was 2 of 3 for 16 yards
  • Danny O’Neil is a QB, and he was 0 of 2 for 0 yards
  • Sean West is a Kicker, and he was 1 of 1 for 24 yards
  • Carter Smith is a QB, and he was 3 of 12 for 8 yards
  • Memo For Wisconsin Recruiters:
      •  When you go three deep on your QB depth chart and a kicker winds up as the leading passer for your team, you might have a problem at the QB position.

Cal 29  Louisville 6 (OT):  Here is another surprising ACC result.  I will be shocked if the ACC gets more than 1 berth in the CFP.

Clemson 24  Florida St. 10:  Neither of these programs will be in the CFP.  This is the Seminoles’ fifth conference loss.

Wake Forest 16  Virginia 9:  More ACC confusion comes with this result.  Virginia lost its first ACC game to a team with 3 conference losses on the books.

SMU 45  BC 13:  BC is 1-9 this year.

Alabama 20  LSU 9:  Neither team could run the ball.  Alabama gained 56 yards rushing and L SU gained 59.  That is 4 losses in a row for LSU.

Kentucky 38  Florida 7:  Kentucky got the Auburn coach fired.  If Florida had not already fired its coach, Kentucky would have been responsible for a second beheading this year.

Texas A&M 38  Mizzou 17:  The Aggies are still unbeaten in 2025.  Mizzou had to play a true freshman QB in his first college start; so, this was not a fair fight from the beginning.

Vandy 45  Auburn 38 (OT):  Vandy is 8-2 for the season; Auburn is 4-6 and will need to win out to be bowl eligible.  Here is the remaining schedule for Auburn:

  • Vs. Mercer – – that should count as only half of a win
  • Vs. Alabama – – Ya nevah know …

Georgia 41  Mississippi St. 21:  Georgia keeps on polishing its resume for the CFP Selectors.  Their only loss was to Alabama back in September; they get Texas this weekend followed by UNC-Charlotte (see SHOE listing above) and my “sleeper team” for the rest of the 2025 schedule.

James Madison 35  Marshall 23:  JMU is a quiet 8-1 for the 2025 season.

Hawaii 38  San Diego St. 6:   This was the first conference loss for San Diego St.  The other Mountain West team with only one loss is Boise St. and those two teams will play each other tomorrow.

Akron 44  UMass 10:  Akron now has a two-game winning streak going and the Zips finished with 467 yards of offense while holding the Minutemen to just 169.  Just so you know, Akron is not a powerhouse; with this win their record elevated to 4-6.

Sam Houston 21  Oregon St. 17:  Sam Houston is off the schneid with its first win of the season.  The stats for this game are unreal:

  • Total Offense:  Oregon St. = 474 yds             Sam Houston = 157 yds [No typos]
  • First Downs:    Oregon St. = 28                      Sam Houston = 8 [No typos]
  • Total Plays:     Oregon St. = 82                      Sam Houston = 48 [No typos]

Oregon St. lost because it gave up a 98-yard kickoff return for a TD AND had a punt blocked and returned for a TD.

 

Games of interest This Week:

 

There is one outrageous spread on the board for this weekend:

  • New Mexico St. at Tennessee – 40.5 (61):

By the way, the Total Line in this game opened at 53.5 and jumped from that number to 60 points in one hop last Sunday night.

 

Texas at Georgia – 6.5 (49.5):  Huge game for both teams here … Both teams have only one loss in conference games and that will change here.  For Texas it would be a third less for the year jeopardizing a CFP invitation; for Georgia it would only be a second loss overall but could shut the Bulldogs out of the SEC Championship Game.

Virginia at Duke – 5 (57.5):  Both teams have one loss in ACC games; so, the winner here stays in good position for participation in the ACC Championship Game.

Penn St. – 7 at Michigan St. (49.5):  Both teams are winless in Big-10 games this year.  I wonder if that has ever happened before?  Both teams come into the game with 6-game losing streaks.  I wonder if that has ever happened before?

Oklahoma at Alabama – 6 (48):  This is a big game for both teams; a loss for Oklahoma might remove any chance for a CFP invitation.  A loss for Alabama might not be quite as dire, but it would jeopardize their shot at the SEC Championship Game.  I see this as a defensive game, so I’ll take it to stay UNDER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Florida at Ole Miss – 11.5 (53.5):  The Rebels are 9-1 and sure look like they will get a CFP slot this year – – if they don’t stub a toe along the way.

Boise St. at San Diego St. – 2.5 (41):  The winner here will be in sole possession of first place in the Mountain West Conference.

Appalachian St. at James Madison – 21 (53):  James Madison seeks to stay unbeaten in Sun Belt Conference games and to improve its overall record to 9-1 for the season.

Air Force at UConn – 7.5 (63.5):  UConn is 7-3 this season and will be in a bowl game next month.

Kennesaw St. – 3 at Jax St. (56):  The winner here will be in sole possession of first place in Conference-USA; both teams are undefeated in conference games so far this year.  That will change tomorrow.

Colorado St. at New Mexico – 14 (54):  New Mexico is 6-3 this year and going to a bowl game; Colorado St. is 2-7 and their coach was fired a while ago and they seem destined for the SHOE Tournament.  I’ll take New Mexico to win and cover here over a team that has no reason to play hard; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary

 

            The Giants fired coach Brian Daboll earlier this week.  After making the playoffs in his first season in NY, the Giants have faded almost to oblivion; Daboll’s record with the Giants was 20-40-1 which seems like an awfully low winning percentage for a coach with 61 games on the sideline.  It appears that the Giants’ GM will remain on the job and that presents an interesting set of omens for Giants fans:

  • Good Omen (?):  This is the GM who drafted Malik Neighbors, Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo.
  • Bad Omen (?):  This is the guy who hired Brian Daboll.

            Naturally, the blogosphere has gone wild with speculations about who the new coach will be.  Bill Belichick and Jon Gruden have both been fingered as possible replacements in NY.  Who knows …?

Here is a stat I ran across while trying to learn about last week’s games:

  • Bryce Young has now gone 7 games in a row passing for fewer than 200 yards.

Has he gone into Mr. Peabody’s Wayback Machine and traveled back to the 1940s?

The Denver Broncos are a mysterious team this year.  Their record is 8-2-0, which has them in first place in the AFC West.  Of those 8 wins, two are impressive:

  1. They beat the Eagles in Philly with a furious fourth quarter rally.
  2. They steamrollered the Cowboys, beating them by 20 points.

However, the other six wins evince a reaction like Meh!

  1. Beat the Titans by 8 points.  Titans are 1-8-0
  2. Beat the Bengals by 25 points.  Bengals’ QB that day was Jake Browning.
  3. Beat the Jets by 2 points.  Jets are 2-8-0.
  4. Beat the Giants by 1 point.  Giants are 2-8-0
  5. Beat the Texans by 3 points.  Texans’ QB that day was Davis Mills
  6. Beat the Raiders by 3 points.  Raiders are 2-7-0.

And speaking of NFL mysteries, can someone explain to me what the Atlanta Falcons are and what their vision/strategy might be?  Let me review the bidding here:

  • They signed Kirk Cuosins to a monster contract seemingly as the leader they needed to get to a Super Bowl quickly because Cousins was 36 years old when he got to Atlanta.
  • Then, they spent a high first round pick on Michael Penix Jr. and handed him the starting job this season.
  • Penix has appeared in 11 games over the past two seasons, and his completion percentage is only 58.6%.  That is a number that might get a backup QB replaced.
  • The Falcons are 3-6-0 in 2025 and the only reason they are not in the cellar in the NFC South is because the woebegone Saints are in that division.

Here are comments on last week’s games:

Broncos 10  Raiders 7:  The Broncos managed to gain 220 yards in this unentertaining contest – – which was 32 yards more than the Raiders could offer.

Colts 31  Falcons 25 (OT):  The Colts dominated the stat sheet producing 519 yards of offense as compared to 290 for the Falcons.  Jonathan Taylor ran for 244 yards and 3 TDs. [Aside: This was the fourth time he’s rushed for three touchdowns in a game this season.]  The Falcons were 0 for 8 on third down. The Colts time of possession was 40:20.

Ravens 27  Vikes 19:  JJ McCarthy threw for 245 yards and a TD in the game; that is the good news.  There are two pieces of bad news:

  1. JJ McCarthy threw 2 INTs in the game
  2. JJ McCarthy was the Vikes’ leading rusher in the game – – scrambling at the end in garbage time for most of the yardage.

The Ravens’ defense has markedly improved from the early part of the NFL season.  I still think they are going to win the AFC North.  The Ravens’ next three games are against the Bengals, the Jets and the Browns…

Dolphins 30  Bills 13:  Don’t know if this game merits a “WTF” or an “AYFKM”?

Jets 27  Browns 20:  The Jets on a winning streak!!!  They did it with only 169 yards total offense.  The Jets returned a kick for a TD and also a punt for a TD.   The Jets recorded 6 sacks in the game.   The QB matchup was Dillon Gabriel versus Justin Fields; I am guessing this game was not the stuff of QB developmental video.

Texans 36  Jags 29:  At the start of the 4th quarter the Jags led 29-10.  Oh my …

Pats 28  Bucs 23:  The Pats are for real; do not ignore them.  The Bucs’ defense is a good one and the Pats rolled up 435 yards of offense in this game.  TreVeyon Henderson carried 14 times for 147 yards and 2 TDs in the game.  This win is the 7th in a row for the Pats.

Saints 17  Panthers 7:  Seems like no one wants to solidify themselves for the overall #1 pick in next year’s draft.  Tyler Shough threw for 282 yards and 2 TDs here.

Bears 24 Giants 20:  The Bears seem to be putting the pieces together.  The Giants had a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter and blew it again.

Seahawks 44  Cards 22:  The stat sheet says this was a close game; the Seahawks outgained the Cards by only 37 yards.  DeMarcus Lawrence scored 2 TDs in the first half of this game on “Scoop and Score” plays.

Lions 44  Commanders 22:  This is the same score as in the Seahawks/Cards game, but the stat sheet here says this game was never in doubt.

Rams 42  Niners 26:  The stats were tight in the game, but the Niners turned the ball over twice spreading out the margin of victory a bit.  Matthew Stafford threw for 4 TDs in the game without an interception; he has now done that in three consecutive games; no QB in NFL history had ever done that.

Chargers 25  Steelers 10:  The Steelers’ offense was out of sync all night long.  It started with Aaron Rodgers being tackled in his end zone for a safety in the middle of the first quarter – – and never got much better.  The Steelers total offense was only 221 yards.

Eagles 10  Packers 7:  This was the Packers’ second loss in a row, and it puts them in 3rd place in the NFC North behind the Lions and the Bears.  That division race will be interesting…

 

Games This Week

 

There are two teams with BYE Weeks here:

  1. Colts:  They lead the AFC South by 2.5 games over the Jags and by 3.5 games over the Texans.  It is difficult to see how they are not part of the playoffs this season.
  2. Saints: They are last in the NFC South with a record of 2-8-0 with a point differential of minus-95.  Only the Titans have a worse point differential.

Last night the Pats took care of business at home against the Jets.  The Pats are now 9-2-0 and are riding an 8-game winning streak.  I said last week they would make the playoffs; they could also win their division and host a playoff game or two.

Commanders vs Dolphins – 3 (47) Game is in Madrid:  This is clearly the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Both teams arrive at the stadium with records of 3-7-0; the Commanders have lost 5 in a row.  Don’t bother to record this early morning game for future viewing; probably the most entertaining thing that could happen would be to stage a bullfight at halftime.

Packers – 7 at Giants (42.5):  The Total Line opened here at 46 points; it dropped quickly to 43.5 points and has been slowly eroding to this number.  The Packers need this game badly; the Giants usually play badly.

Bucs at Bills – 5 (47):  Both teams need this game.  The Bills have lost three of their last 5 games and a loss here would put them 2.5 games behind the Pats in the AFC East.  The Bucs lead the NFC South, but their comfort level is created mainly by the miserable teams behind them in that race.

Bengals at Steelers – 5.5 (49):  In their first meeting this season, the Bengals scored 33 points and had 470 yards of offense.  So, of course you want to get 5.5 points here, right?  Hold on,,, The Bengals defense has given up 300 points in 9 games this year; that is the worst scoring defense in the NFL.  The most interesting thing about this game is that it is a rematch of 40-year old Joe Flacco and 41-year old Aaron Rodgers.  It’s a Geezer Game.

Texans – 5.5 at Titans (37):  The Texans may have the best defense in the NFL this year and the Titans have “offensive issues” to say the least.  First team to 20 points wins it?

Bears at Vikes – 3 (48):  The Bears have won 6 of their last 7 games; it has been a while since that was the case.  I think the outcome here depends on one thing:

  • Will we see “Good JJ McCarthy” or “Bad JJ McCarthy”.
  • Get out your “Magic 8 Ball” …

Panthers at Falcons – 3.5 (40):  Two very unpredictable teams here…

Chargers – 3 at Jags (44):  The Chargers need this game; they are 7-3-0 and trail the Broncos by a game in their division.  The Jags need this game; they are 5-4-0 and will likely need to claim a wildcard playoff spot in January so every game is big for them.

Seahawks at Rams – 3 (49):  Here is the Game of the Week.  Both teams are 7-2-0; both teams have won 4 games in a row, and they are tied for the lead in the NFC West.  These teams will meet again on December 18th.

Niners – 3 at Cards (48.5):  Both teams gave up more than 40 points to opponents last week; I suspect the defensive coaches have spent extra time on defensive schemes for this one.  It looks like both teams will go with backup QBs here – – Mac Jones and Jacoby Brissett.

Ravens – 8.5 at Browns (39.5):  The Total Line is all over the place for this game.  It is as low as 38.5 and as high as 40.5 – – and at every level between those extremes.

Chiefs – 3.5 at Broncos (45):  The Chiefs clearly need this game; a loss here would put them 3 losses behind the Broncos with only 7 games left to play.  There is a theory of football handicapping that says you take a home underdog when that underdog has the better defense.  That looks to be the case here.

(Sun Nite) Lions at Eagles – 2.5 (47):  I thought about this game as the Game of the Week for a moment.  The Eagles have pulled rabbits out of hats to win a couple of games this year including last week’s win over the Packers.  The Lions are too explosive on offense to expect that kind of play to produce a win.  I like the Lions plus the points here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Mon Nite) Cowboys – 3 at Raiders (49):  The Cowboys are not a good football team, and they will be playing without Marshawn Kneeland who committed suicide earlier this week.  However, the Raiders worse than “not a good football team”.  So, give me the Cowboys on the road to win and cover here; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

Let me review the “Betting Bundle”; it is a short one this week:

  • Alabama/Oklahoma UNDER 48
  • New Mexico – 14 over Colorado St.
  • Lions +3 against Eagles
  • Cowboys – 3 over Raiders

            And just for fun here are three Money Line Parlays:

  • New Mexico @ minus-650
  • UConn @ minus-300
  • Georgia Tech @ minus-780
  • Notre Dame @ minus-500                $100 wager to win $108

And …

  • Lions $ +130
  • Cowboys @ minus-180                    $100 wager to win $258

And …

  • Packers @ minus-360
  • Texans @ minus-260
  • Ravens @ minus-460                        $100 wager to win $115.

Finally, let us hear from George Halas:

“Nothing is work unless you’d rather be doing something else.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *