Today marks the return to the Internet of Football Fridays in full bloom. We have college football in progress; we saw the start of the NFL regular season last night; Linfield University kicks off its pursuit of another winning record in football tomorrow. Order has been restored to the football world.
Let me begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle” and “Money Line Parlays”
“Bundle”: Last week: 1-2-0 (Not good but the season is early)
Season: 1-2-0
Parlays: Last week: 1-1 Profit $28
Season: 1-2 Loss $72
Turning now to the Linfield Wildcats’ game this weekend, the team is at home to play an out-of-conference game against the Titans of Wisconsin-Oshkosh. These two teams met last year in Oshkosh and the Titans prevailed 28-21 in overtime. The Wildcats should be looking to return the favor of all that traveling by the Titans squad. Go Wildcats!
My “sleeper team” for 2025 is Georgia Tech. The Yellowjackets got their season off on a solid footing beating Colorado 27-20. Tech had a better presence on the stat sheet than on the scoreboard gaining 463 yards in the game while holding Colorado to 305 yards. Tech QB, Haynes King, had an interesting game. His passing stats were “Meh!”:
- 13 of 20 for 143 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT
However, his legs made up for his arm’s deficiency:
- 19 carries for 156 yards and 3 TDs
Tech has a “tune-up game” this week hosting Gardner-Webb as a prelude to Game 3 of the season for Tech when they host 8th ranked Clemson. Go Yellowjackets!
College Football Commentary:
Let me start in classic curmudgeonly fashion by pointing out a couple of bad starts to the 2025 season from last week. Middle Tennessee St. is hardly a college football blueblood; I doubt that too many Blue Raiders’ fans aspire to a New Year’s Day bowl bid let alone a chance to experience the CFP. Nonetheless, Middle Tennessee St. started 2025 by getting clocked by Austin-Peay – – a Division 1-AA school from the Ohio Valey conference that went 4-8 last year playing the likes of Alabama A&M, Southern Utah and West Georgia. One historical note here, the last time Austin Peay beat a Division 1-A football team was in 1987 when they managed to beat K-State back at a time when K-State was awful. Two stats from this game to give you an idea of how Middle Tennessee St. got its lunch handed to it:
- Middle Tennessee St. Total Offense = 153 yards
- Middle Tennessee State 3rd down conversions = 0 for 12.
Another game made me wonder if it was a good omen for Tulane or a bad omen for Northwestern – – or both. Tulane prevailed last week 23-3 holding Northwestern to only 233 yards of Total Offense while amassing 419 yards of offense on its own. Tulane plays in the American Conference – – hold that thought.
USF hosted 25th ranked Boise St. last week and won in a walk by the score of 34-7. In case you didn’t know, USF is also in the American Conference. So, of course some folks have concluded that the American Conference champ will get the CFP bid as the best non-Power 4 conference champion. There is no doubt those two wins are impressive and form the basis of building a résumé for the Committee to ponder. However, let me look at how some of the other American Conference members began 2025:
- Army lost to Tarleton St. as a minus-500 Money Line favorite
- UAB beat Division 1-AA Alabama St. despite yielding 42 points
- Charlotte lost to Appalachian St. by 23 points
- Florida Atlantic lost to Maryland by 32 points
It looks to me as if the American Conference may have a real “mixed bag” of competitors and that could give the Selection Committee agita come December.
Purdue beat Ball St. 31-0. Purdue was awful in 2024; so, is this evidence of a resurgent Boilermaker squad – – or is Ball St. that bad? Between now and October 4th, Purdue will face inter alia:
- USC, Notre Dame and Illinois.
Meanwhile in the same time frame, Ball St. will face:
- New Hampshire, UConn and Ohio.
By mid-October we should know the vector headings for these two schools…
The nation’s longest losing streak came to an end last weekend as Kent St. rose up and beat the mighty Warriors of Merrimack College by a score of 21-17. Before Kent St. fans get irrationally exuberant, Merrimack outgained Kent St. in the game 340 yards to 309 yards. Moreover, Division 1-AA Merrimack was a less-than-fearsome 5-6 in football in 2024.
There was a good news/bad news game last week for Oklahoma St. Coming off a 3-9 season in 2024 and having lost the last 9 games in a row, the Cowboys needed something positive at the start of 2025. They got that positive feeling after a 27-7 drubbing of Tennessee-Martin. Now for the bad news:
- Oklahoma St. starting QB, Hauss Hejny, broke his foot in the game and will require surgery.
Temple beat UMass 42-10 last weekend. I hate to overreact to early season results, but when a team loses to Temple by 32 points, that result screams SHOE Team!
Last year, Nick Saban went straight to the Bottom Line when speaking about the new NIL Era in college football:
“If you don’t pay the right guys, you’ll be sh*t out of luck.”
The football gods must have taken note because the following situation unfolded in Week 1 this year:
- Nico Iamaleava was the Tennessee QB last year. He thought he deserved a raise in his NIL deal and Tennessee thought he was asking too much. Iamaleava played “The Transfer Portal Card” and went west to UCLA.
- Tennessee won last week without Nico beating Syracuse 45-26.
- Meanwhile, Nico and UCLA were shellacked by Utah 43-10. Let’s just say Nico was underwhelming in his Bruins’ debut.
And speaking of college QBs and early season reactions, Arch Manning was also underwhelming in his first game as “The Man” for the Texas Longhorns. [Aside: More on that later…] Well, there is a betting market out there for which college player in 2025 will be the first pick in the NFL Draft in April 2026. As a result of that below-expected performance by Manning his odds increased, and he is no longer the favorite in that betting space. Two weeks ago, Manning was the betting favorite at +275 to be the first overall pick. As of earlier this week, here is the betting lineup:
- Drew Allar (Penn State) +350
- Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) +350
- LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina) +500
- Cade Klubnik (Clemson) +550
- Arch Manning (Texas) +700
That is enough preamble for this week; let me comment on a few of the games that were more important from last week:
Florida St. 31 Alabama 17: The pressure on these two coaches just underwent a tectonic shift. Florida St. ran over the Alabama defense for 230 yards; Alabama fans are not used to seeing anything of the kind. Meanwhile in Tallahassee, folks are falling back in love with Mike Norvell. I think fans in Alabama need to take a deep breath and look rationally at recent Alabama football; these are not the Nick Saban version of Crimson Tide football teams.
- Last year Alabama finished with a 9-4 record losing to Vandy and an Oklahoma team that finished below .500 for the year.
- Couple those performances with a bowl game loss to Michigan and now this drubbing as a 2 TD favorite and you might think that the bloom is off the rose in Tuscaloosa.
- I am not writing Alabama off just yet, but they looked eminently beatable for four quarters of football last week.
Ohio St. 14 Texas 7: This was a really good college football game to watch unless you are a Texas alum or your name is Arch Manning. The Buckeyes just smothered the Longhorns offense holding Manning to 170 yards through the air; this victory belongs to that defensive unit. The Ohio St. offense looked like a work in progress gaining only 203 yards in the game and recording only eleven first downs in the game – – and two of those eleven were via penalties.
LSU 17 Clemson 10: Brian Kelly is off the schneid in Game 1 at LSU; this is his first win in that situation. There were two highly regarded QBs in this game – – see Draft odds above – – but the game turned on the performance by the LSU defense; that unit held Clemson to 31 yards rushing and 261 yards of Total Offense for the game. Clemson tried to run the ball for a while but just could not get it done.
Miami 27 Notre Dame 24: The score was close, but I thought that Miami had the better offensive line and the better defensive line in the game. Usually, that situation produces a much larger margin of victory. I thought Carson Beck and CJ Carr played well at QB for the two teams.
TCU 38 UNC 14: Call this one what it was; it was an organized ass-kicking and UNC played the role of a one-legged participant. Here are the comparative stats:
- Total Offense: TCU = 542 yards UNC = 222 yards
- First Downs: TCU = 29 UNC = 10
- Total Plays: TCU = 72 UNC = 49
- 3rd Downs: TCU = 7 of 12 UNC = 1 of 10
After the game, Bill Belichick said that the Tar Heels are “better than they showed”. That had better be the case or it will be a long cold season in Chapel Hill, NC.
Washington St. 13 Idaho 10: This is a rivalry game despite the difference in the size of the programs; the two schools are about 10 miles from each other. Washington St. is clearly the “big brother” in this pairing, but this game was as close as the scoreboard would indicate. Washington St. tried but could not run the ball gaining only 8 yards on the ground in the game. Idaho could not throw the ball effectively gaining only 51 yards passing in the game. The deciding score was a field goal with 3 seconds left on the clock.
Wyoming 10 Akron 0: That score is most appropriate because the Akron nickname is The Zips” – – and they scored squadoosh in the game.
NCAA Games of Interest:
Let me start with seven games that are of little or no interest this week due to spreads of 5 TDs or more:
- Kent St. at Texas Tech – 48
- Ball St. at Auburn – 44
- Florida International at Penn State – 41.5
- San Jose St at Texas – 37
- LA Tech at LSU – 37
- Kennesaw St at Indiana – 36
- La-Monroe at Alabama – 35
Iowa at Iowa St. – 3 (41): I like this game to go OVER; Iowa St. has done well on offense in 2 games and maybe this is the time for Iowa’s offense to be something other than somnambulant. “Put that in the Betting Bundle”.
Stanford at BYU – 20 (46): Stanford lost to Hawaii last week and got this stat line from its QB, Ben Gulbranson:
- 15 of 30 for 109 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT
That was against Hawaii’s defense; this is BYU. This game could get ugly…
Middle Tennessee St. at Wisconsin – 28.5 (45): See above for how bad the Blue Raiders were last week. Was that some sort of aberration or might they lose this one by 50 points?
UNC – 13 at UNC-Charlotte (49): This spread opened at 19 points but there must be a lot of money fading the Tar Heels after last Monday night’s debacle to move the line that much and across so many commonplace scoring differences.
Austin Peay at Georgia (No Lines): Can the Governors make it two wins in a row over Division 1-A teams? Uh … no!
NFL Commentary:
I wonder why no one “threw out a challenge flag: on Travis Kelce’s engagement proposal over the last week or so. Looked to me as if his foot was on the line and the proposal should be ruled incomplete. Why no “Booth Review”?
More than enough has been written/said regarding the trade of Micah Parsons to the Packers from a game perspective and from the perspective of how Jerry Jones could have done something so stupid. I want to ask a different question regarding that exchange:
- Did Parsons come out as the “big winner” in the deal with his monster contract from the Packers – – or – –
- Did Parsons’ agent, David Mulugheta, come out as the “big winner” in the deal?
Personally, I think that Mulugheta earned himself a handful of premier clients with the way everything unfolded in this transaction. The only downside from his perspective is that Jones and the Cowboys are not likely to be working with him for one of those future clients, so his universe of potential suitors is down to 31 teams.
Circle September 28, 2025 on your calendar; that is the day that the Green Bay Packers – – with Micah Parsons – – journey to Arlington, TX to play the Dallas Cowboys. Should be a fun game and it is going to be the Sunday Night Football Game available to all.
Let me try again to look at a situation from a different perspective. The Chicago Bears have not had a high-quality QB since Sid Luckman in the 1940s; that is a long time to be wandering about in the QB desert. However, looking back at the Chicago Bears pass catchers over the last 50 years, who of that cohort was a standout? Mike Ditka at tight end? As I thought about this, I asked myself who was the best Chicago Bears WR that I could recall without a lengthy Google search. Here is my answer:
- Alshon Jeffrey
So, now my thinking is that the Bears have never had a good QB and that they have never had a wide receiver – – or two – – who might make a good QB appear to be great? You folks made the call …
In last night’s Eagles/Cowboys game, there were more than enough storylines and angles for the broadcasting crew to exploit from their pregame notes. Forget that, Jalen Carter – – who is simultaneously the best interior DT in the NFL and also a physical 24-year-old with the emotional maturity of a 7-year-old – – was ejected from the game before the first play from scrimmage. He deserved his punishment; he needs to get his brain somewhere near the level of his physical body; the Eagles managed to win last night’s game simply because the Cowboys were also playing without their best defender – – Micah Parsons.
Forget the delay due to lightning strikes in the area of the game, this was not a tour de force of efficiently executed plays by either team on offense or on defense. The Eagles came away with a win on the night that they unveiled their Super Bowl banner from 2024 leaving their fans with a warm – – and possibly inebriated – – feeling for the day.
Games This Week:
Let me start with a general observation. Forgetting last night’s Eagles/Cowboys game, there are 15 games on tap for NFL bettors to consider. Of those 15 games offered up for wagering consideration, as I count- – ten of the games have a line equal to or less than a field goal. Is that due to parity run amok or is that due to lots of teams seeking to run the football successfully thereby taking scoring time off the clock and ushering in an era of low scoring NFL football games?
Speaking of last night’s Eagles/Cowboys game, a report this morning characterized Jalen Carter’s ejection from the game as a “non-football act” which was deemed punishable by banishment. Come on, now; they have him on video spitting on Dak Prescott. Yes, it appears as if Prescott spit also – – but not on Carter; nonetheless Carter’s behavior goes beyond childishness and crosses into the realm of boneheadedness.
In any case, the Eagles managed to defend their championship status last night despite Jalen Carter’s absence and the fact that AJ Brown only caught 1 pass for a total of 8 yards. Last night was the Jalen Hurts show; he led the team in passing and rushing scoring two TDs along the way. It was not pretty, but the Eagles’ defense shut out the Cowboys in the second half when they needed to do so.
(Tonite) Chiefs – 3 vs Chargers (46.5) Game is in Sao Paulo Brazil: This will be the fourth time the Chiefs have played a game outside the US; the team is undefeated when assigned one of the “International Games”. The Chiefs will be without Rashee Rice who will miss the first 6 games this season due to a league suspension. If you read my previous predictions for this NFL season, you know that I picked the Chargers to win the AFC West; so now you know why I am taking the Chargers plus points in this game. I think Jim Harbaugh will have the Chargers primed and ready to go even more than Andy Reid will have his team ready for action. Give me the Chargers plus the points; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.
Steelers – 3 at Jets (38): As if on cue, the NFL gives us a revenge game in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers goes up against his teammates from last year and Justin Fields does the same. If only I cared about either QB …
Dolphins at Colts “pick’em” (47): Here is a game where shopping the spread could matter. At one sportsbook this morning, the Dolphins are favored by 1.5 points; at a handful the Dolphins are favored by a point; at other sportsbooks, the Colts are 1-point favorites, and more than a handful of sportsbooks have this as a “pick ‘em game”. Here is a trend that might have something to do with this game:
- The Colts have lost the season opening games in each of the last 11 NFL seasons.
Panthers at Jags – 3.5 (47): The Panthers were 2-point favorites in this game, and I have no insight as to how or why the line has moved so dramatically. I will be interested to see how the Jags’ offense – – and particularly Trevor Lawrence – – fares in this game and in the first few games of this season because lots of folks think that pairing Lawrence with new head coach, Liam Coen, is going to be a big deal in the AFC South Division.
Giants at Commanders – 6 (46): Here are two teams arriving at the kickoff with lots of optimism. The Giants are convinced that their QB situation is significantly upgraded with Russell Wilson at the helm – – and with wunderkind Jaxson Dart ready and able in the bullpen so to speak. Also, the word out of the Giants’ training camp is the Abdul Carter may indeed be the second coming of Lawrence Taylor. On the other side, the Commanders are riding the wave of a 12-win season in 2024. The last time that happened with a Washington NFL team was back in 1991 when the Skins won the Super Bowl.
Bengals – 5 at Browns (48): Just in case fans in Ohio might be paying too much attention to Ohio State football, the NFL leads off with “The Battle for Ohio”. The game could become very interesting because the Bengals’ offense versus the Browns’ defense pairs two excellent units. At the same time, the Bengals’ defense versus the Browns’ offense pairs two woebegone units. So, how will all that manifest itself on Sunday? The Bengals are notoriously slow starters; they began the 2022 and 2023 seasons with 0-2 records; last year, they opened at 0-3. Can they find a way to get that monkey off their back?
Raiders at Pats – 2.5 (44): Way back in the offseason, the Raiders were 7-point favorites in this game; I have no explanation for that large a swing in the betting line for this game. Both teams were 4-13-0 in 2024 and both teams fired first year head coaches once the season was done. Mike Vrabel in New England and Pete Carrol in Las Vegas come to their current jobs with lofty expectations from their fanbase.
Cards – 6 at Saints (43): I picked the Cards to win the NFC West this year; this game will tell me a lot about the viability of that prediction. The Cards have a distinct advantage at QB in the game, but the Cards have a history of not coming through with a full exploitation of talent advantages. If the Cards are “for real”, they should romp and stomp here. I like the Cards to show up ready for action meaning they will demonstrate that they are the better team. I’ll take them to win and cover even on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
Bucs – 2 at Falcons (47): Here is another game where the favored team has flipped since the start of Training Camp. More than a few pickers think that the Bucs will take a step back this year due to the absence of their Offensive Coordinator from 2024.
Titans at Broncos – 9 (42.5): Breaking in a rookie QB against a defense that is as good and as aggressive as the Broncos’ defense might not be the optimum way to go. But the schedule-makers have spoken …
Niners – 2 at Seahawks (43): The Niners opened as a 6.5-point favorite; I have no idea what either team has done over the last two weeks to cause that swing in the spread. But late this week, a report said that Christian McCaffrey was “limited” in a team practice due to a “calf injury”. The Niners have already had a season’s worth of nagging injuries and player/team kerfuffles. I think the winner of this game will be the team that is more ready to play a “for real” game as opposed to an extension of the Exhibition Season.
Lions at Packers – 2.5 (47): The Lions were 2-point favorites here – – and then the Micah Parsons trade happened and that line shifted almost immediately. That does not make a lot of sense to me because Parsons has not practiced or played in quite a while and has not had more than a passing glance at the Packers defensive playbook. I have no doubt Parsons will be a factor once he gets into the rhythm of a regular season, but that time is not this weekend. It will be interesting to see how the Lions look with their two new coordinators running the show. I smell a small upset here; I’ll take the Lions plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
Texans at Rams – 3 (43): I think both teams are going to be in tight quarters when it comes down to playoff slots; therefore, this game is a big one even if it is an inter-conference game and it happens in Week 1. Matthew Stafford did not play in the Exhibition Games and has been nursing a “back injury”; we may be able to determine by his mobility in this game if all of that was real or just a smokescreen.
(Sun Nite) Ravens- 1 at Bills (51): I will anoint this as the Game of the Week just edging out the Chargers/Chiefs game. If you told me that you thought this could also be the pairing in the AFC Championship Game in January 2026, I would not expend a lot of effort to change your mind.
(Mon Nite) Vikes – 1 at Bears (44): Call this “The Question Mark Game”.
- Is JJ McCarthy the real deal for the Vikes?
- What is more likely, the Vikes winning the division or finishing last in the division?
- Is the marriage of Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams the start of a dynasty?
So, let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:
- Iowa/Iowa St. OVER 41
- Chargers +3 against Chiefs
- Lions +2 against Packers
- Cards – 6 over Saints
And for Money Line Parlays this week:
- Commanders @ minus-250
- Jaguars @ minus-190 $100 wager to win $113
And …
- Ole Miss @ minus-320
- Tulane @ minus-370
- Syracuse @ minus-240 $100 wager to win $136
And …
- Lions @ +120
- Broncos @ minus-400
- Cards @ minus-275 $100 wager to win $275
Finally, this from Nick Saban:
“I played so long ago, I don’t think anybody even knew you could transfer. I don’t think they knew anything about it.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………