Football Friday 11/8/24

Trust me, I know.  This is supposed to be a Football Friday but because this weekend is a reunion of the core of the “Las Vegas Crowd”, most of this is being written on Thursday.  If you will allow for a breaking story or two that is not accounted for here, I will do my best to make this interesting.

• Last week’s Betting Bundle had 4 picks and the record was 3-1-0.  Not bad.
• Last week’s Money Line Parlays went 1-2 for a net loss of a supposed $100.  Not good.

Time to check in on the Linfield University Wildcats football season.  Last week Linfield was on the road against Pacific University for a Northwest Conference game; Linfield won that game 68-28 stretching their record for 2024 to 7-1.  Linfield remains undefeated in Northwest Conference competition, and they are at home this week for another conference game against Pacific Lutheran.  The Lutes are 6-2 over the course of the 2024 season and are 4-1 in Northwest Conference games.  This is an important game because the conference winner will get an invitation to the Division III national playoffs.  Go Wildcats!

My “sleeper team” for 2024 was identified as the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  Last week Nebraska lost at home to UCLA keeping the team one win away from bowl-eligibility in 2024.    Nebraska is now 5-4 on the season having lost their last three games in a row.  Here is the upcoming schedule where the Huskers need to find one more win to get themselves to a minor bowl game:

• At USC (next weekend)
• Vs. Wisconsin
• At Iowa

None of those games looks to be a “gimmee”; Nebraska will have to earn its trip to a bowl game if indeed they qualify for one …

 

College Football Commentary:

 

If I have counted correctly, there are only 5 undefeated teams left in Division 1-A ranks as of this morning:

• Army is 8-0
• BYU is 8-0
• Indiana is 9-0
• Miami is 9-0
• Oregon is 9-0

For the record, the last time Army went undefeated for the season was in 1958; the last time Oregon went undefeated for the season was in 1916 and the last time Indiana went undefeated for the season was in 1945.  Stay tuned; this could get interesting …

The Cornhuskers may need to manufacture a win as an underdog to get to a bowl game this year; such is not the case for the UConn Huskies who – – more years than not – – are SHOE Tournament candidates.  The Huskies have won their sixth game already and will find themselves invited to one of the myriad minor bowl games – – perhaps the WGARA Bowl where WGARA is the acronym for

• Who Gives A Rat’s Ass.

Vandy continues to try to lay claim to the most surprising college football team for 2024; last week they beat Auburn 17-7 on the road at Auburn and shut out Auburn in the second half of the game.  If you think that is a minor point, consider that this is the first time ever that Vandy has ever won on the road against Auburn and that Vandy has been playing intercollegiate football – – albeit not against Auburn every year – – since 1890.

The Auburn loss in this game gives the Tigers a record of 3-6 with an SEC record of 1-5.  Here is why that is bad news:

• Auburn hired Coach Huge Freeze to “right the ship” after Auburn suffered 2 consecutive losing seasons.
• Auburn was 6-7 under Freeze last season which was below .500 but it was an improvement.
• The remaining schedule for 2024 includes Texan A&M (7-2 overall) and Alabama (7-2 overall) along with La-Monroe after a BYE this weekend.
• Auburn needs to run the table to make it to a bowl game …
• Oh, just for giggles, the Vandy win in this game makes Vandy bowl-eligible more than two weeks before Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile, S. Carolina beat Texas A&M   44- 20.  I said last week that this might well be a let-down game for the Aggies – – and it was.  Nevertheless, the Aggies are still one of 5 teams in the SEC with only 1 conference loss as of today.  The rest of the SEC football season should be interesting.

In other SEC action, Ole Miss came back to life and demolished Arkansas 63-31.  The Rebels’ QB, Jaxon Dart, had himself a feast.  He threw for 500 yards and 6 TDs against the Razorbacks who seemed to be playing the game in slo-mo.  Ole Miss is 7-2 overall in 2024 and they have 2 conference losses.  However, they have an upcoming game against Georgia this week; Georgia is one of the SEC teams with only 1 conference loss; so, Ole Miss is not out of it just yet.

UAB was 1-6 going into last week’s scheduled game against Tulsa.  UAB was almost assuredly going to be on my “watch list” for the SHOE Tournament.  At halftime of the game against Tulsa, UAB was on top by a score of 45-7 and they “held on” to win 59-21.  Absent some sort of cataclysmic collapse, UAB probably escaped SHOE Tournament consideration for the year.

Indiana ran its record to 9-0 for the season on the road against Michigan State.  It was another blowout for the Hoosiers winning by a score of 47-10.  Here is a great stat from that game:

• Indiana held Michigan State to 12 yards rushing on 31 attempts.
• That works out to be 4.6 INCHES per rush attempt.

Penn State came up short against Ohio State at home again 20-13.  The Buckeyes have now won 8 games in a row over the Nittany Lions.  Penn St. had the ball inside the Ohio St. 5-yardline twice and scored zero points on those two possessions. There’s no way to pretend that was a positive set of circumstances; this extends James Franklin’s record against Ohio St. to 1-10.  Oof …

In ACC action, UNC spanked Florida St. 35-11; it may not have been that close.  UNC outgained Florida St. 500 yards on offense to 201 yards on offense.  The Seminoles record has cratered to 1-8 as of today …

SMU beat previously undefeated Pitt by a score of 48-25.  SMU is 8-1 overall and is 5-0 in conference games; the Mustangs are tied with the Miami Hurricanes atop the ACC with a 5-0 record in conference.  Just so you know, SMU and Miami are not scheduled to meet in the regular season – – but there is the ACC Championship Game and then the CFP to consider.

Louisville beat Clemson 33-21 last week making the Mustangs one of only two teams with no losses in ACC games this year.  Miami and Louisville lead the conference this morning, but Clemson and Pitt have only one conference loss each.  That race should be interesting …

Things did not go “according to plan” in the Big 12 last week.  Iowa St. was undefeated and ranked #11 last week.  The Cyclones lost outright to UCF 23-22.  That leaves BYU as the only team in the Big 12 with an unblemished record in conference games.  BYU has 4 games left on their dance card:

• At Utah – – HUGE rivalry game
• Vs Kansas – – Jayhawks have underperformed expectations this year but are still dangerous
• At Arizona St. – – The Sun Devils are 6-2 overall this morning
•  Vs Houston – – The Cougars are 4-5 for the season

Checking in on the contenders for the Brothel Defense Award for 2024:

• New Mexico (3-6 overall) gives up 40.8 points per game
• Utah State (2-6 overall) gives up 41.5 points per game
• Kent State  (0-8 overall) gives up 46.6 points per game.

And now it is time to begin a serious look at the teams who deserve – – nay, demand – – an invitation to the imaginary SHOE Tournament.  I have 12 teams on my “Watch List” this week and I will present them in alphabetical order lest anyone think I have made up my mind on any of these bad teams:

1. Air Force – – 1-7
2. Akron – – 2-7  The Zips seem to be appropriately named.
3. Florida St – – 1-8
4. Kennesaw St, – – 1-7
5. Kent State – – 0-9
6. New Mexico St – – 2-7   Aggies close out the season at home against UTEP.
7. Southern Mississippi – – 1-7
8. Purdue – – 1-7
9. Temple – – 3-6
10. Tulsa – – 3-6  Forget 3 wins, they lost to a 2-win UAB team by 38 points last week
11. UMass – – 2-7
12. UTEP – – 1-8 Plays Kennesaw St. this week.  Oh joy!

 

NCAA Games of Interest this Week:

 

(Fri Nite) Iowa – 6 at UCLA (45):  For the 4^th time this year, Iowa scored 40 points or more in a game.  Should not happen again here…

Virginia at Pitt – 7 (57):  The Panthers’ offense could run roughshod in this contest because the Cavaliers’ defense allows just a tad under 28 points per game.

Iowa St. – 3 at Kansas (50):  The Cyclones laid an egg last week against UCF (see above).   Was that the start of a decline or were they looking ahead to this game?

Miami – 10.5 at Georgia Tech (64.5):  Miami is still undefeated; Ga. Tech is one of those teams that is not good enough to be in the Top 10 but just good enough to be a tough out for teams that are in the Top 10.

Navy – 3 at USF (58):  Navy has lost two in a row after starting out the season with six straight wins.

Purdue at Ohio St. – 38 (54):  A CFP team hosts a SHOE candidate.  Oh my …

Nevada at Boise St. – 24 (61):  Nevada gives up 156.4 yards per game on the ground.  Boise St. averages 267.9 yards per game on the ground.  I wonder what the game plan here might be …

Colorado – 3.5 at Texas Tech (63):  Colorado has 1 conference loss; Texas Tech has 2 conference losses; this is a big game.

Georgia – 2.5 at Ole Miss (53):  The Rebels rank 2^nd in the nation in Total Offense per game (555.4 yards per game).  The Dawgs rank 12^th in the nation in Total Defense (295.3 yards per game).  A loss for Ole Miss might eliminate them from CFP consideration.  I’ll side with the Georgia defense here and take the Dawgs on the road to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

South Carolina – 3.5 at Vandy (45):  Both teams rely on their defenses …

Army – 5 at North Texas (64):  Army seeks to remain undefeated in 2024 …

Maryland at Oregon – 25 (58):  The Terps take a long airplane ride for the purpose of taking a tail-kicking …

Michigan at Indiana – 14.5 (50):  If I had written that line back in August, you would have thought I was onto some new hallucinogen here in Curmudgeon Central …

Washington at Penn St. – 13.5 (46):  An important game for Penn St.  They need to rebound from last week’s loss to Ohio St.

Kennesaw St. at UTEP – 4 (42.5):  SHOE candidate versus SHOE candidate.  The epitome of ugliness for the week …

Florida St. at Notre Dame – 26 (42.5):  A CFP aspirant hosts a team seeking to avoid the SHOE Tournament.

Alabama – 2.5 at LSU (57):  LSU has 1 conference loss; Alabama has 2 conference losses.  Playing in Baton Rouge at night is never easy.  This is the College Game of the Week.  The loser here will probably not make it to the CFP.

BYU – 3.5 at Utah (40.5):  This is the biggest rivalry game on tap for this week.  BYU is undefeated and ranked such that they would get a CFP bid as of this morning.  Utah is a tough defensive squad dealing with plenty of injuries.  I think BYU stays unbeaten here and covers in a low scoring affair; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary

 

My comments this week will focus on some of the less-than-positive situations surrounding some NFL QBs.  Let me start with Derek Carr of the Saints.  In Week 17, Carr and the Saints will host the Las Vegas Raiders in what appears today to be a meaningless game; both teams are 2-7 as of this morning.  Nonetheless, circle that game on your calendar – – not for watching but for following.  Here’s why:

• Derek Carr has now played in games where he has lost to 31 of the 32 NFL teams.
• Derek Carr has never lost to the Raiders – – because he used to play for the Raiders, and one cannot lose to oneself in football.
• No QB has ever achieved that level of frustration.  It could happen on December 29, 2024.

But wait … If Derek Carr manages to dodge that infamy, there is another NFL QB who might be in the crosshairs of such a status.

• Joe Flacco has lost to 30 of the 32 NFL teams.
• One of the teams never to have lost to a Flacco-quarterbacked team is the Lions.
• The Lions will play the Colts on Nov. 24^th this year.  If Flacco is still starting for the Colts there, the Lions will be favored in the game…
• That would mean that Joe Flacco might lose to all 32 teams should he ever face the Bucs and lose.

Having mentioned these potential accomplishments related to losing, let me inject here a thought from Morgan Wooten:

“You learn more from losing than winning.  You learn how to keep going.”

Two weeks ago, Jameis Winston was pressed into service as the starting QB for the Browns after Deshaun Watson injured his leg.  The Browns won that game, and Winston was the hero with a game-closing TD pass capping a 300+ yard passing performance.  Well, last week, Jameis Winston reverted to the mean; he threw three INTs, and the Browns lost to the Chargers 27-10.

The Giants’ QB situation is similarly yo-yo-like; Daniel Jones can be very good one week and mystifyingly awful the next.  Consider his stat line from the first half of last week’s game where the Giants lost to the Commanders 27-22:

• 4 of 6 for ZERO yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs

Meanwhile, Jags’ QB, Trevor Lawrence, looks at Jones’ first half stats and smiles because those stats are so bizarre that they obfuscate how poorly he played in the first half last week against the Eagles.  Here is the story:

• 4 of 10 for 23 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT

Leaving QB issues aside for a moment, there was another bit of strangeness in the NFL last week.  The Cowboys not only benched RB, Ezekiel Elliott, but they left him home and did not have him accompany the team on the road in Atlanta.  That situation was explained by saying it was a “disciplinary issue”; after the game, there has been reporting that Elliott had been late to several meetings and then simply blew off a scheduled meeting and never showed up at all.

It isn’t strange for teams to discipline players for missing meetings; that happens every season.  What is strange here is who was punished.  Remember, after the Cowboys lost RB Tony Pollard to free agency, GM Jerry Jones brought Elliott back to Dallas with a goodly amount of fanfare; the vibe was super-positive; Zeke had come home where he belonged.  And now this …?

Speaking of the Cowboys, I wonder if it might make more long-range sense for the team to start Trey Lance at QB for the next several weeks.  Yes, when Dak Prescott is back from his hamstring injury, the team will have to start the guy they are paying $60M per year, but Dak will be on the shelf for about a month and that might be an opportunity in this sense:

• The Cowboys are a long shot to make the playoffs in 2024.
• They know what they have and what they can expect from Cooper Rush as their backup QB.  He is a model backup; he can be inserted into a game on the fly, and he can play a few games when needed without embarrassing himself or the team.
• They do not know what they have and what they might expect from Trey Lance.  So, maybe they should try and find out because if Lance also shows as a model backup QB, that might give the team a trade asset because teams normally do not keep 2 backups on the same roster.

The problem with that sort of reasoning is that it rests on a foundation that the Cowboys recognize that the 2024 NFL Playoffs are going to happen without Cowboys’ participation.  And I suspect that is not a thought that has entered the mind of Jerry Jones.

Now that the NFL season is around the half-way mark, let me pose a question for everyone here.  So far, who is the “Comeback Player of the Year”?  I think there are four candidates:

1. Joe Burrow
2. Nick Chubb
3. Kirk Cousins
4. Sam Darnold

Yes, I know that Darnold is not coming back from an injury or illness, but he is coming back to a level of prominence that has evaded him since he left USC and came to the NFL.  At the moment, my “vote” would go to Cousins – – but there are still games to be played.

The Washington Commanders are beginning to get some positive attention outside the DC area; the team is fun to watch, and they are quite good.  It has been at least 25 years since that team has been either fun to watch or quite good; the rest of the country needs to “rediscover” this franchise.

Head coach, Dan Quinn, and GM, Adam Peters have changed the roster and changed the entire environment for the team.  Jayden Daniels gets loads of positive coverage, and he deserves every bit of it – – but the rest of the roster is solid particularly now that GM Peters acquired Marshon Lattimore in a trade at the deadline.  Lattimore is a top-shelf CB, and the main vulnerability of the Commanders was their pass defense.  Peters got Lattimore for a third-round pick; I doubt there will be a CB of Lattimore’s ability available in next year’s third round of the draft.

The NFC West could not be a tighter race; here is the table as of this morning:

1. Cards   5-4   Won the last 3 games in a row
2. Rams  4-4   Won the last 3 games in a row
3. Niners  4-4  Won their last game and had a BYE last week
4. Seahawks  4-5  Lost their last 2 games

The Cards look good this year; the Rams have broken even despite injuries to both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua; the Niners have yet to see Christian McCaffrey in uniform; the Seahawks will be a tough out if their defense ever comes around.  There are plenty of division games still to be played in 2024 and they should be worth watching.

Let me comment on a few of last week’s NFL contests:

Lions 24  Packers 14:  Not only did this give the Lions sole possession of first placed in the AFC North, but it also gave them their second division win on the road.  The Lions hold tiebreakers head-to-head at this point over both the Vikes and the Packers with rematches going to be played in Detroit.  That was a big win for the Lions.

Chargers 27  Browns 10:  The Chargers’ defense needs to take a bow here.  For the season the Chargers only give up an average of 12.5 points per game; in this game the Chargers’ defense recorded 6 sacks and 3 INTs.  Not a bad day at the office …

Cards 29  Bears 9:  The Bears’ OL needs a lot of help.  Caleb Williams was sacked 6 times in this game by a defense that makes no one think of the Steel Curtain.

Rams 26  Seahawks 20 (OT):  The Rams’ defense had 7 sacks and 3 INTs in this game and needed OT to get the win.  [Aside:  One of those INTs turned into a “Pick-Six”] Normally, that sort of defensive performance produces a comfy win in regulation time.

Jets 21  Texans 13:  The Texans’ offense is not very good without Stefon Diggs (out for the year) and Nico Collins (on IR) to play WR.

 

Games This Week:

 

Four teams will be on their BYE Week this weekend:

1. Browns:  At 2-7, the Browns’ aspirations for the playoffs should be filed under “Fantastical”.
2. Packers:  At 6-3, the Packers need to regroup and prepare for a run at the Vikes and Lions who are ahead of them in the NFC North.  The fact that the Packers are 0-2 in division games is not helpful.
3. Raiders:  At 2-7, the Raiders’ aspirations for the playoffs should be filed under “Delusional”.
4. Seahawks:  At 4-5 they are in a tight race in the NFC West (see above) and if they are going to be in the race there to the end, they must fix their defense and they have a BYE Week to work on that.

            Last night, the Ravens came back to beat the Bengals 35-34.  The game was fun to watch, and the outcome was decided by the fact that the team making the last bad decision lost the game.  If you did not see the game, go find any of a hundred reports that will break the game down in detail; the Bengals’ coaching staff made several risky choices in the 4^th quarter and all of them went against the Bengals.

Giants – 6.5 vs Panthers (40.5) Game is in Munich, Germany:  This is without question the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  It is a sell-out in Munich; if this were played in the US, they might only be able to sell out a high school venue.  Both teams stink; the outcome here is only important with regard to the draft order next April.  As you find something – – ANYTHING – – else to do early on Sunday morning try to answer this philosophical conundrum:

• What is worse
  • • Watching the Giants play ineptly in an NFL game?
    • Watching the Panthers play ineptly in an NFL game?
    • Watching the Panthers play the Giants in an inept NFL game?

You make the call …

Bills – 4 at Colts (47):  Teams have been able to do business on the ground against the Bills’ defense so far this year and the Colts are a run-focused team because they do not pass the ball very well.  Can Jonathan Taylor and his running buddies keep this game close?

Vikes – 7 at Jags (44):  This spread opened at 4 points and has jumped to this level as the week wore on.  The Vikes are 12^th in the NFL in passing offense in 2024 averaging 222.1 yards per game.  The Jags are 31^st in the NFL in passing defense giving up 264.3 yards per game.  Sam Darnold pads his stats here…

Steelers at Commanders – 3 (45.5):  This is my Game of the Week.  The spread opened at 1.5 points and has been climbing steadily all week long indicating there is an abundance of “Commanders’ money” coming through the windows.  The Commanders are 7-2 at the time of the kickoff; that is the best 9-game start to a season by that franchise since 1996; as I said above, these guys are good.  Having said that, they have not yet faced a defense quite as stingy as the Steelers’ defense – – which only got better with the addition of Preston Smith at the trade deadline.  The Steelers are coming off their BYE Week and have a slim lead in the AFC North to protect here given that the Ravens won last night.  I’ll take the Steelers plus the points on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Falcons – 4 at Saints (46):  The only reason I will pay attention to this game is to see if the Saints find temporary inspiration under their interim head coach, Darren Rizzi.  Perhaps some inspiration will come if players recognize that a new regime in New Orleans might decide to clean out the roster meaning they might need to find work on the free agent market coming to that status from a team that stunk out the joint in 2024.

Broncos at Chiefs – 8 (41.5):  The Chiefs will eventually lose a game – – however, I do not think Bo Nix and the Broncos are going to be the instruments of such an outcome.

Niners – 6.5 at Bucs (50):  The Bucs lost in OT on Monday night last week; the Niners had the week off.  Maybe Christian McCaffrey is back for this game – – or not?  The Niners’ defense ranks 10^th in the league in Total Defense and they are rested; the Bucs’ offense is depleted by injuries particularly at the WR position.  This game has the potential to be a rout …

Pats at Bears – 6 (39):  This game got a fleeting thought regarding its “Dog-Breath Potential”; the Pats are not very good, and the Bears have lost two in a row.  The most interesting feature of the game is #1 pick Caleb Williams going up against #3 pick Drake Maye.  Other than that, …

Titans at Chargers – 7 (39):  I think this game is a mismatch.  The Chargers are a good team playing good football under Jim Harbaugh; the Titans are not a good team.  I think the Chargers win this game in a walk; I’ll take the Chargers to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Eagles – 7 at Cowboys (43.5):  I toyed with this game as the Game of the Week because it is a division game and because a loss for the Cowboys would be devastating to their playoff hopes.  But that was not enough …  The spread here opened at 3 points and exploded to 7 points presumably as it became clear that Dak Prescott’s injury will have him out of action for several weeks; the total line also plummeted on that news from 48.5 points to 43.5 points.  The Eagles’ offense ranks 6^th in the league at 377.1 yards per game; the Cowboys defense ranks 27^th in the league giving up 364.8 yards per game.  I think that is the key match-up in the game.

Jets – 2 at Cards (46.5):  Both teams give up 133 yards per game on the ground.  The Cards average 149.7 yards per game rushing and the Jets average 87.7 yards per game on the ground.  I think that is the biggest statistical match-up to watch for as the game evolves.

(Sun Nite) Lions – 3.5 at Texans (49.5):  This game also got Game of the Week consideration; the Lions arrive at the kickoff riding a 6-game winning streak; only the undefeated Chiefs have a longer one.  The Lions are averaging 31 points per game; the Texans only give up 22 points per game.  This game will be a nice way to cap off a full day of NFL entertainment.

(Mon Nite) Dolphins at Rams – 1 (50):  The Rams need this game to stay in the mix in the NFC West (see above).  The Dolphins need this game to avoid the calamity of seeing their record fall to 2-7 making their already slim playoff probability vanishingly small.

So, let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Georgia – 2.5 over Ole Miss
• BYU – 3.5 over Utah
• Steelers +3 against Commanders
• Chargers – 7 over Titans

And here are three Money Line Parlays for your entertainment:

• BYU @ minus-150
• Miami @ minus-380   $100 wager to win $111.

 

• Army @ minus-190
• Navy @ minus-160
• Chiefs @ minus-390   $100 wager to win $212

 

• Vikes @ minus-290
• Chargers @ minus-350
• Steelers @ +130     $100 wager to win $298.

Finally, some words from Vince Lombardi:

“The measure of who we are is what we do with what we have.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………