Month: December 2023

If you live anywhere other than in Washington DC or its surrounding suburbs, you might have a positive sports outlook this morning.  Such is not quite the case here in “The DMV” – – the District, Maryland and Virginia.  Just a quick overlook:

• The Commanders are 4-9 and in last place in the NFC East
• The Wizards are 3-20 and in last place in the NBA’s Southeast Division
• The Caps are 14-8-3 and in fifth place in the NHL’s Metropolitan Division
• The Nats aren’t playing but finished dead last in the NL East last year.

And yesterday, the owner of the Caps and the Wizards reached a “handshake deal” with the Governor of Virginia to build a new arena in Alexandria, VA and to move those two teams out of the District.  You cannot imagine the outpouring of anger/resentment here this morning.  Not since Cruella de Ville sought to skin dalmatian puppies to make a spotted overcoat has anyone done anything approaching the level of evil that was on display when the team owner and the Governor held their press conference.

The Caps and Wizards play in a facility called the Capital One Arena.  It is about 25 years old, and it needs more than a facelift but less than a full tear-down-and-rebuild.  The owner asked the District for $600M for the “renovations and upgrades”.  The mayor here has fundamentally ignored this request; she did not – – figuratively of course – – flip the bird at the request but she absolutely paid it no attention.  Into that vacuum charged the Governor of Virginia seeing this as an opportunity for him to leave the legacy of his administration.  [Aside:  The Virginia Constitution limits Governors to a single term so each one enters office as a “lame duck” with only 4 years to craft their “legacy”.]

I have always opposed the “corporate welfare” that is poured upon billionaire sports owners.  If I were to create a more perfect world, that would never happen, but I am not in the business of creating a more perfect world.  The reality is that such largesse is commonplace.  And in a world where benefits of the magnitude of hundreds of millions of dollars are dangled in front of owners, it is foolish to think that they can or would ignore them all.

Think about that for a moment.  Team owners are – generally – billionaires who have made their fortunes in the world of business/finance.  People do not become billionaires if they are not capable of recognizing a “good deal” when one presents itself.  Ted Leonsis owns the Caps and the Wizards – – and a few other sporting assets of lesser import – – and what he did is to look at whatever it was that the governor had to offer and juxtaposed it with the mayor’s indifference to his perceived need for arena improvements and …  He did not become a billionaire by failing to recognize and capitalize on such situations.

Making the outpouring of angst this morning even sillier is that this deal has dozens of hurdles to cross in Virginia before anyone can put a shovel in the ground and get started on the new facility.  I will go out on a limb and predict here that this deal will have more than a dozen twists and turns before it either gets started or dies an agonizing death.  The only sure-fire winners here are the lawyers in the firms representing litigants in the sure-to-be-filed lawsuits central to or tangential to this handshake deal.  This could be a tsunami of billable hours …

Moving on … There is another sports facility nearby here that is the subject of some contention between the team owners and the State where the facility is located.  I am referring to Camden Yards where the Baltimore Orioles play.  The Orioles’ lease to use the facility to play their home games runs out on 31 December of this year.  If you do not have a calendar handy, that is 17 days from today.  One of the negotiation points that has caused some contention there is a provision that would give the Angelos family – – owners of the Orioles – – developmental rights to the State-owned land around the ballpark.

According to reports, it would be the Angelos family that would get the developmental rights and not any subsequent owners of the Orioles should the family choose to sell the team sometime down the road.  That possibility gains credence from a Bloomberg report from about a week ago that one of the founders of The Carlyle Group is in negotiations to buy the team from the Angelos family.

And in a related vein …  The drama involving these two sports facilities will be totally eclipsed in this little Interstate-95 corridor by the multi-dimensional Kabuki Theater that will unfold as the new owner of the Washington Commanders wheels and deals his way into a new stadium in the area.  The reason that it will be a bigger deal than either of the dramas above has nothing to do with the economics of the situation; it has only to do with the fact that the NFL team is a much bigger deal here in “The DMV” than the Caps, the Wizards and/or the Orioles.  I say that because an NFL stadium is often a white elephant in a landscape as compared to a baseball stadium or a combined basketball/hockey arena.  Do some math …

• An NFL stadium will be in use by an NFL team less than 15 days in a year.  That counts an Exhibition Game plus home games plus possible playoff dates.
• There is no local college football team in “The DMV” to use a new facility here.
• There may be a few large concert events that might be held outdoors at the facility so maybe there could be another 20 such events held during the “good weather season” here and the start of an NFL season.
• Total use is 35 days a year at most or about once every 10 days on average.
• A hockey/basketball arena will be in use by those two teams more than 80 nights in a year.
• Concerts and events of that kind can fit into the calendar easily.
• In “The DMV”, Georgetown could be induced to play its 15 home games there, [Aside:  Georgetown now plays home games at the Capitol One Arena.]
• The potential usage for such a facility is at least 100 days a year and maybe as much as 150 days a year.

The nominal economic benefits of a sports facility depend heavily on the spill-over from sporting events onto the surrounding area.  I don’t need a PhD in economics to understand that a facility that provides 150 days of “spill-over” is more likely to generate a lot more economic benefit for surrounding businesses than a facility that is in use 35 days a year.

Nevertheless, there will be a bidding war for the Commanders’ new field starting very soon.  It is too bad for the DC Mayor that she did not get her oft-stated wish to defund the police there.  If she had been able to accomplish that, she would have about $525M extra in the DC budget to use as part of the bidding for the facility.  C’est la vie…

Finally, since everything today involves dealings with billionaires, let me close with these words from Warren Buffet:

“You should invest in a business that even a fool can run, because some day a fool will.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

 

Move over, Bobby Bonilla.  Make way for Shohei Ohtani as the major domo of deferred payments.  People like to chuckle on July 1^st of every year that the NY Mets must send Bonilla a check for $1.1M and have had to do that since 2010 and will continue to do so through 2035.  Well, if reports from yesterday are even nearly accurate, deferred compensation just went to an entirely new dimension.

Reports say that the structure of Ohtani’s $700M contract over the next 10 years has lots of deferred money involved.

• For each of the 10 years in the span of the contract, the Dodgers will pay Ohtani only $2M each year.
• Therefore, Ohtani will collect only $20M of the contract amount over that period when he will be a member of the Dodgers.
• Then starting in 2034 – one year before Bobby Bonilla’s deferred payments will be discharged – the Dodgers will begin to pay Ohtani $68M per year for the next ten years.

The Mets’ deal with Bonilla was a result of their desire to buy out multiple years on Bonilla’s existing contract but instead of paying the value to him in 2000, they deferred the payments allowing them to accrue a guaranteed 8% interest and do the payouts from 2010 through 2035.  That seemed at the time to be a great deal for the Mets because they were earning lots more than 8% on their investments with Bernie Madoff.  Ooops …!

The Dodgers’ motivation for the deferrals is to reduce the team’s exposure to MLB’s luxury tax which resembles a “salary cap” but really is not.  The deferred money for Ohtani comes at no interest and simply represents a contingent liability on the Dodgers’ books for the years 2034 – 2043.

As a minor issue, Ohtani’s contract also is reported to include:

• A full-time interpreter
• A hotel suite for all road trips
• A “premium luxury suite” at Dodger Stadium for all home games.

Meanwhile, up the road in San Francisco, the Giants came to an agreement with another Asian player signing Korean outfielder, Jung Hoo Lee to a deal worth $113M over the next 6 years.  Seems to me that the SF Chronicle missed an opportunity for the headline:

Hoo Lee Sh*t !

Moving on …  I pointed out last week the sad and significant decline in stature for Sports Illustrated when it was discovered that they had printed articles prepared by an Artificial Intelligence algorithm and that some of those sorts of stories ran under fictitious bylines.  Sports Illustrated is published by an entity known as The Arena Group which also publishes Parade and TheStreet.  Here is how The Arena Group describes itself:

“Our unified technology platform empowers creators and publishers with tools to publish and monetize their content, while also leveraging quality journalism of anchor brands like Sports Illustrated, TheStreet, Parade, Men’s Journal and HubPages to build their businesses.”

Earlier this week, The Arena Group fired its CEO and replaced him with Manoj Bhargava who is a successful businessman as the founder of 5-Hour Energy among other healthy drink brands.  Bhargava also has been involved in the chemical industry and in plastics.  Nowhere in his CV is there anything related to “quality journalism” that could lead “creators and publishers” to “monetize their content”.  Here is a hypothesis:

• Sports Illustrated was created by the folks who published Time magazine.  One need not agree with the politics of the folks who owned and ran Time, but it was serious journalism and reporting; that was the rearing/upbringing for Sports Illustrated.  Considering the journalistic standard set by those related publications put out by The Arena Group, perhaps SI is now living down to the standards of its neighbors just as it used to live up to the standards of Time.

Allow me to offer up here some recommended reading.  To appreciate the magnitude of Sports Illustrated’s decline, I suggest you read:

• The Franchise: A History of Sports Illustrated Magazine by Michael MacCambridge

Naturally, you can find it on Amazon.com…

One last item today …  Recall the name Matt Araiza.  He was the punter drafted by the Buffalo Bills whose NFL career was cut short when he was accused as being part of a gang rape of a woman while he was in college.  The Bills cut him immediately; no other professional football team went anywhere near him.  He was vilified for what he was alleged to have done.  The operative word there is “alleged”.

Police investigations did not lead to an indictment let alone a conviction.  Remember the adage that if a prosecutor really wants to, (s)he can indict a ham sandwich.  Well, Araiza was less enticing in terms of an indictment than a ham sandwich.

There was a civil action brought against Araiza by the alleged victim.  Earlier this week, that civil lawsuit was dropped; according to reports, there was no settlement; the action was simply dropped.  So, where are the apologies from all the folks who commented on Matt Araiza’s despicable behavior?  Araiza now joins the Duke Lacrosse Team and Trevor Bauer as someone pictured as a social pariah for whom there were no convictions.

Finally, apropos of nothing, let me close with these words from Lily Tomlin:

“The trouble with the rat race is that even if you win, you’re still a rat.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In my real career, I had the good fortune to work for 5 excellent and inspiring people and by observing how they dealt with people and situations it gave me behavior models that I could emulate when I faced professional challenges.  I thought then – – and continue to think – – that those opportunities to observe others were valuable happenings.  Such must not be the case when it comes to the ownership group that runs the Pittsburgh Steelers football organization.

The Rooney family runs the show there and the model for the franchise is stability and measured responses to situations.  Consider:

• The Steelers have had 3 head coaches since 1969.
• The Steelers have won 6 Super Bowls and have been AFC Champs 8 times.
• The Steelers’ last losing season was in 2003.

The way the Steelers’ organization has dealt with challenges and competitors over the years has clearly worked; so, you might expect that those on the inside who had the chance to observe how a successful franchise goes about its business would emulate the model if given the opportunity.  But we have two counter examples to that supposition:

1. Jimmy Haslam was a minority owner of the Steelers from 2008 to 2012.  At the end of his time with the Steelers organization, he bought the Cleveland Browns.  Between 2012 and today, the Browns have had 8 head coaches – – counting interim head coaches – – and have made the playoffs only one time.  There was a two-year stretch where the Browns record was 1-31-0.  There were reports that Haslam demanded that the Browns use a late first-round draft pick to take Johnny Manziel over the “advice and counsel” of the “football people”.  That behavior does not emulate the “Rooney Regimen”.
2. David Tepper was a minority owner of the Steelers from 2009 to 2018.  At the end of his time with the Steelers organization, he bought the Carolina Panthers.  Between 2018 and today, the Panthers have already had 7 head coaches – – counting interim head coaches – – and the team has not had a single winning season let alone a playoff appearance in that time.  Various reports by Peter King and reporters at The Athletic have described the Panthers environment as similar to the “Hunger Games” and King said explicitly, “That franchise is a mess.”  Once again, that behavior does not emulate the “Rooney Regimen”.

Since I obviously know none of the folks that I just described above, it would be unfair and presumptuous for me to pretend that I know why such a situation obtains.  But the difference in management/organizational styles – – and results too – – is stark enough to make me wish that someone who studies management and organizational psychology would dig in and offer some explanation.

Switching gears …  The “reader in Houston” sent me a message suggesting that I check out the Grinnell College men’s basketball team and its schedule.  The campus is located in Grinnell, IA and plays Division III level basketball in the Midwest Conference.  As of this morning, Grinnell’s record is 8-2 but it is the scoring of the Grinnell games that is most interesting:

• In both of Grinnell’s losses this year, they have scored 102 points or more.
• In three of Grinnell’s wins this year, they have scored between 148 and 151 points.
• In their ten games this season, Grinnell averages 114.7 points per game.

This is the Division III version of the old Loyola Marymount team with Hank Gathers and Bo Kimble leading the scoring with Paul Westhead as their coach…

And speaking of minor college basketball, let me clue you in on another game where the margin of victory was 94 points.  North Dakota St. won this game by a score of 108-14 over Oak Hills Christian.  North Dakota State is a Division I school, and Oak Hills Christian is a small Division II school in Minnesota.  The score was 60-5 at halftime.

Clearly this game suffered from the lack of a “Mercy Rule” but before piling on the North Dakota St. coaches for running it up, consider this:

• Everyone on the North Dakota St. roster played in the game – – AND – –
• Every player who got in the game scored for North Dakota St.

Clearly, Oak Hills Christian is a team with problems.  Their record so far this year is 2-9 and if this 94-point loss were the only rout on the record, you could chalk it up to the fact that they were over-reaching with that schedule entry.  Not the case:

• Oak Hills Christian lost to Rockford University by 53 points.
• Oak Hills Christian lost to Bemidji St. by 81 points.
• Oak Hills Christian lost to Valley City State by 63 points and again by 82 points.
• Oak Hills Christian lost to Dickinson St. by 72 points.

So, you might conclude that Oak Hills Christian is “the bottom of the barrel” but if you look closely, you will find that both of it wins have come at the expense of the same school – – Sisseton Wahpeton College.

• Dec 2^nd:  Oak Hills Christian 75  Sisseton Wahpeton College 74
• Dec 6^th:  Oak Hills Christian 90  Sisseton Wahpeton College 88

Finally, I’ll close here with some words of encouragement for the players at Oak Hills Christian and Sisseton Wahpeton College from former UCLA coach, John wooden:

“What you are as a person is far more important than what you are as a basketball player.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Baseball provided sports fans with big news over the past several days.  The biggest – – and most surprising – – news was the contract that Shohei Ohtani signed with the LA Dodgers.  All the details of that contract have not been revealed yet but what we do know is stunning:

• The total value of the contract is $700M over 10 years.
• Remember, all MLB contracts are fully guaranteed save for outrageous circumstances such as suspensions or moral turpitude or … you get the idea.
• According to reports, there are no “outs” in the contract for either party.  Ohtani will not be able to get another shot at free agency for a decade and the Dodgers have him signed up for that same period even if his arm falls off.
• According to reports, a “significant portion” of the contract consists of deferred payments.  That means Ohtani will not receive $70M every year for the next 10 years.  The amounts and the timing of the deferrals have not been reported yet, but this is an advantage for the Dodgers as a team because it reduces the “luxury tax” burden.  [Aside:  Reports also say that the Dodgers’ contracts with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman also have “significant amounts” of deferred money.]

Ohtani will not be able to pitch next season due to elbow surgery that he had recently so on one hand, the Dodgers will not have his unique “two-way skills” on the team for the first 10 percent of the deal.  Nonetheless, Ohtani should provide significant value with his bat.  Even with a truncated season as a pitcher last year, Ohtani won the MVP award (for the second time) with these stats:

• Batting average = .304
• OPS = 1.066 (best in the AL)
• HR = 44 (best in the AL)
• RBI = 95

The Dodgers along with Ohtani and Dodgers’ fans all feel like winners about now.  I do think there is a loser in all this, and I don’t mean one of the other teams who were hoping to sign Shohei Ohtani.  I think Mike Trout is a loser here.  Other than Trout, quick – – name an All-Star on the Angels’ roster.  I have no idea if the Angels are loaded with hot prospects in their minor league system; I do not follow West Coast minor league baseball at all.  However, if the Angels are not on the verge of fielding a bunch of guys ready to explode onto the scene, Mike Trout will play on a team with little to no hope of making the playoffs any time soon.  The Angels finished 2023 with a record of 73-89 which put them 17 games behind the Astros in the AL West.  The only reason they did not finish dead last is because the Oakland A’s are in the same division and are even more bereft of talent.

Mike Trout is a great player who will be in the Hall of Fame one of these days.  However, his contract with the Angels runs through 2030, so he may play out those days with a sad sack roster around him.

Another possible group of “losers” based on this contract agreement might be any MLB owners seeking to sell their teams about now.  Remember, the Angels were on the market until owner Arte Moreno could not get any bids in the neighborhood of what he wanted for the team.  The same situation existed in Washington when the Lerner family could not scare up any bids close enough to their asking price for the franchise.  Now, potential franchise buyers will need to project future salary figures that were probably outside the range of consideration 6 months ago.

And if you think that is a “Chicken Little interpretation”, consider the other major MLB story from late last week.  The Padres traded away Juan Soto to the Yankees for a bunch of young pitching prospects and some serious baseball writers have attributed the Padres’ motivation for making that trade to “liquidity issues” with Padres’ ownership.  One report said that the team had to take out a short-term loan last year to meet payroll; the Soto trade is widely referred to as “salary slashing” by the Padres.  Soto is entering his “arbitration years” and will surely earn $20-25M next year in arbitration before he too enters the free agency marketplace at the end of the 2024 season.  [Aside: I saw one report saying that Soto could get as much as $32M in arbitration this season and then negotiate from that number as an unrestricted free agent next winter.]

Now the baseball signing focus can settle on 25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto who has excelled in the Japanese Pacific League for the last several years and is the winner of that league’s MVP Award in each of the last 3 seasons.  Yamamoto is a starting pitcher who went 16-6 last year with an ERA of 1.16.  Over a career of 7 seasons in Japan, Yamamoto has logged 967.2 innings and a career ERA of 1.72.  Who wants to start the bidding at 10 years and $350M?

Finally, since today has been about lots of money, let me close with three observations about money:

“When it comes to the question of money, everyone is of the same religion.”  [Voltaire]

And …

“Those who have some means think that the most important thing in the world is love.  The poor know that it is money.”  [Gerald Brenan]

And …

“Money cannot buy health, but I’d settle for a diamond-studded wheelchair.”  [Dorothy Parker]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Serious college football goes on hiatus at this time of year – – save for the Army/Navy game this weekend – – but that does not mean that “football” takes a break.  And for that reason, Football Friday will not take a break.  So, I shall begin where all these rants begin – – a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• College  =  1-1-0   =>   Season  = 19-9-0
• NFL  =  1-2-0   =>   Season  =  17-14-0
• Parlay  =  0-1  Loss  =  $100  =>  Season = 7-11  Loss = $47

 

College Football Commentary:

 

I am not going to comment on every single college football bowl game because some of them are of less interest than a treatise on athlete’s foot fungus prevalence in woodpeckers.  But I do think that sixteen of the minor bowl games deserve comment:

1. Famous Toastery Bowl featuring W. Kentucky versus Old Dominion.  Unless you have a relative playing in this game or if you have a confidence pool where you had to pick a winner here, there is NO good reason for anyone else to give a rat’s ass about this matchup.
2. Fenway Bowl featuring BC against SMU.  Without BC in this game, they would be lucky to have a live audience of more than 10,000.  If the weather is beastly, they may only draw 7500 to the stands for this one…
3. Potato Bowl featuring Ga St. versus Utah St.  With a high degree of confidence, I predict that “State” will win this game.
4. Pop Tarts Bowl will match NC State against K-State.  With a high degree of confidence, I predict that “State” will win this game.  There’s an echo in here …
5. Las Vegas Bowl featuring Utah and Northwestern.  Only pay attention to this game if you love defensive football.  The Total Line opened at 43 points and has been eroding to the current number at 41.5 points.  The game will not kick off until Dec 23^rd, so there is ample opportunity for that line to go lower.
6. 68 Ventures Bowl matches two directional schools – – South Alabama and E. Michigan.  The first of the “68 Ventures” here would be for give a rat’s ass about this game.
7. Texas Bowl features Texas A&M and Oklahoma St.:  Both fanbases expect the moon and the stars from their stalwarts.  One will be ecstatic after this game and the other will be despondent beyond rational measure.
8. Pinstripe Bowl played in Yankee Stadium pits Rutgers against Miami (FL). Other than demonstrating that Rutgers does not move the needle regarding TV ratings in the NYC area and that Rutgers’ alums will not pack Yankee Stadium to the gills, what is the point of this game?
9. Fiesta Bowl pairs Oregon and undefeated Liberty.  Big game for both teams – – even if it is of no import regarding national rankings.
10. Gator Bowl has two teams whose seasons are mirror images.  Kentucky started the season at 5-0 and finished 7-5.  Clemson lost plenty of early games and finished the season with 4 straight wins including over UNC and Notre Dame.
11. LA Bowl has an interesting story in one of the teams, Boise St.  They fired the head coach in mid-season and still won the MWC championship and this bowl game invitation.  That is an atypical season to say the least …
12. Cure Bowl matches Appalachian St. and Miami (OH).  It is not clear to me what malady might be cured with that pairing…
13. Hawaii Bowl has Coastal Carolina versus San Jose St.  There will be a ton of frequent flier miles accumulated by the Chanticleers on this trip.
14. Citrus Bowl this year should be labeled as the Yin/Yang Bowl.  Tennessee wins by outscoring opponents; they average over 31 points per game.  Iowa never comes close to scoring 31 points in a game and yet Iowa has a 10-3 record.
15. Sun Bowl might be the best of the minor bowl games this year with Notre Dame playing Oregon St.  These are two very good football teams.
16. Armed Forces Bowl is where James Madison University landed once it was eligible for a bowl bid when there were not enough 6-win teams in the country to fill all the slots. This game will happen on Dec 23^rd in the late afternoon time slot and should be a fun game to watch.

Here is a review of some action from last weekend:

Texas 49  Oklahoma St. 21:  This was no contest.  Check out just a few stats from the game:

• Texas Total Offense = 662 yards   OK St. Total Offense = 281 yards
• OK St. Rushing Offense = 31 yards on 16 attempts (1.9 yards per carry)
• Texas third-down conversions = 10 of 16

Boise St. 44  UNLV 20: Another game of domination…  Boise St, gained 527 yards and UNLV only gained 298.  Boise St rushing offense was 301 yards – – just a tad more than UNLV’s total offense.  Both teams have gotten bowl bids; this will be the first bowl game appearance for UNLV in a decade.\

SMU 26  Tulane 14:  SMU smothered Tulane’s ground game yielding only 31 net yards rushing in the game and Tulane was only able to convert 2 of 15 third-down situations.  SMU survived a game where it turned the ball over 3 times.  Tulane led 7-0 after a turnover with 14:50 left in the first quarter.  From that point until halfway through the third quarter, Tulane was shut out.

Alabama 27  Georgia 24:  Georgia’s 29-game winning streak is no more.  The game was as even on the stat sheet as it was on the scoreboard.  Two weeks ago, Alabama could not stop Auburn’s run game; in this game, Alabama only gave up 78 yards rushing.

Florida St. 16  Louisville 6:  Check these stats:

• Florida St. Total Offense = 219 yards   Louisville Total Offense = 188 yards
• Florida St. First Downs = 12   Louisville First Downs = 10
• Two teams combined on third-down situations to go 5 of 33

Was this a “Defensive Battle for the Ages” or “Two Incompetent Offenses”?  The answer – to me – is a qualified “Yes” to both questions.  The Seminoles’ defense was smothering; the Seminoles’ offense was marginal at best.

Michigan 26  Iowa 0:  Iowa managed to gain a total of 149 yards in the game on 56 offensive plays (2.7 yards per offensive snap).  That meager output generated all of 7 first downs in the game.

Liberty 49  New Mexico St. 35:  Liberty finishes the season undefeated at 13-0.  This was a game where both defenses never got off the team bus:

• Liberty Total Offense = 711 yards
• NM St. Total Offense = 499 yards
• Combined Total Offense = 1210 yards
• Teams combined to achieve 60 first downs.
• NM St. averaged 7.9 yards per offensive play – – and LOST the game.
• Liberty averaged 10.2 yards per offensive play.

Liberty QB, Kaidon Salter produced these stats in the game:

• 20 of 25 for 319 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs – – Plus – –
• 12 rushes for 165 yards and 1 TD.

Washington 34  Oregon 31:  The Huskies won the stat sheet more convincingly than they won the game on the scoreboard.  They outgained the Ducks by 119 yards which usually produces a win by more than a field goal.  Washington RB, Dillon Johnson produced these stats:

• 28 carries for 152 yards (5.4 yards per carry) and 2 TDs – – Plus – –
• 2 of 2 passing for 5 yards and 1 TD with 0 INTs.

 

Games this Week:

 

Army – 3 vs. Navy (29.5):  The spread opened with Army as a 1-point favorite, but that line has been climbing steadily all week; one Internet sportsbook has it at 3.5 points.  The total Lime opened at 31 points and has been dropping all week.  A different Internet sportsbook has the Total Line as low as 27.5 points this morning.  Games between the service academies are always worth watching.  The players give max effort on every play; there is no showboating even after great individual plays; the celebrations are organic and not of the “Hey, Look At Me” variety.  I am tempted to take this game to stay UNDER even that extremely low Total Line; remember that the Navy defense has shut out three opponents this year.  But I will resist that temptation.

I believe it was last year – – it may have been a couple of years ago – – one of the Navy fans in attendance had a sign that was put on the air in a crowd shot.

• Why doesn’t Army Football have its own website?

 

• They can’t string three “W” s together!

 

NFL Commentary:

 

One of the important positions that has come to the fore recently in the NFL is the “Backup QB”.  Fifty-three different players have been the starting QB for NFL teams so far in 2023 and Trevor Lawrence is questionable for this weekend.  When GMs are in “roster building mode” they need to spend some time – – and maybe a bit of their salary cap money too – – acquiring a competent backup QB.  Even with the enhanced restrictions on defensive players teeing off on opposing QBs, it is about an even bet that a team will need its backup QB at some point in the season.

• [Aside: The Giants, the Jets and the Vikes have all started 3 different QBs this season and the Browns have started 4 different QBs.]

Speaking of the Jets and their three different starting QBs, the team released Tim Boyle this week.  To complete that move, the Jets signed Brett Rypien.  Maybe Rypien is an upgrade over Tim Boyle – – that is not a given – – but here are some data to indicate that he might not be a permanent solution to the Jets’ QB situation:

• In January 2023, Rypien was part of the Denver Broncos.
• In May 2023, he signed with the Rams and presumably moved to the LA area.
• In November 2023, he signed with the Seahawks and presumably moved to the Seattle area.
• In December 2023, he signed with the Jets and presumably moved to the NYC area.

Those data tell me two things:

1. He shows few if any flashes of brilliance in training/practice sessions.
2. He is more likely to be named ‘Man of the Year” by United Van Lines than he is by any NFL fanbase.

Lots of coverage and commentary this year has centered on CJ Stroud and his leadership/performance as the rookie QB for the Texans.  To some extent, Stoud’s excellent rookie season has detracted from the attention that should be paid to the performance of his rookie teammate – – and also high draft pick – – LB Will Anderson.  He is also an “impact player”, one that offensive coaches need to plan around as they put together their play-calling sheets.

I have begun to create a hypothesis about “evolutionary trends” that have shaped the current state of NFL football.  In today’s game, the running game has been de-emphasized and running backs as a position group have been “devalued”.  For a while now, I have simply ascribed that to the fact that rule changes have all been in the direction of making the passing game in the NFL easier on and more rewarding to offensive units.  Ergo, pass the ball more than run it …

But I wonder if there is another factor at work here.  College football shows a similar – and maybe even a greater – disdain for the running game.  In many college games, you will see offenses lining up with 4 WRs and an empty backfield at least five times as frequently as you will see them with two RBs in the offensive set.  Most college teams do not run the ball nearly as often as they used to.

And that leads to the “graduation” of college offensive linemen for whom any sort of run blocking more complicated than the simple “down-block” represents the need for a learning curve.  In 2023:

• 24 teams (75% of the NFL) have thrown the ball on first down 75% of the time.

I am beginning to think that teams are eschewing run plays as much because they do not have enough competent run-blocking offensive linemen as they are avoiding them for higher productivity passing plays.  It is only a hypothesis; I will hope to refine it over time …

Just to keep you up to date, Commanders’ QB, Sam Howell was sacked 4 times last week bringing his season total to 58 sacks in 13 games.  That projects to 75.8 sacks for a 17-game season.  The NFL record for sacks in a season is 76.  Tension mounts …

Let me review last week’s NFL action:

Bengals 34  Jags 31 (OT):  Jake Browning is the story of this game having shown not much more than mediocrity the week before.  Here is his stat line:

• 32 of 37 for 354 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs – – PLUS – –
• 2 rushing attempts for 22 yards and 1 TD.

The longer-term issue from this game is Jags’ QB, Trevor Lawrence, suffering a “high ankle sprain”.  How long might that affect the level of his play – – assuming he can play at all for the next couple of games?  That is an important question for a team with only a one-game lead in the AFC South and a backup QB – – CJ Beathard – – who is also listed as “questionable”.

Cards 24  Steelers 10:  This game was much closer on the stat sheet than it was on the scoreboard.  The Steelers lost Kenny Pickett to an ankle injury meaning that three of the four teams in the AFC North have had injuries to their starting QBs this season.  James Connor was the workhorse for the Cards carrying the ball 25 times for 105 yards and 2 TDs.

Falcons 13  Jets 8:  No, the Jets did not score a TD plus a 2-point conversion; their 8 points came on two field goals and a safety.  The Jets went to QB #3 on the roster, Trevor Siemian, and the results were not significantly different from what they got from either Zack Wilson or Tim Boyle.  The Jets’ defense should sue the offense for non-support.  In this game, the Falcons only got 194 yards of Total Offense and the Falcons won the game.  Last week, I said that Desmond Ridder would be “the best QB on the field”.  Well, I was correct despite this stat line for Ridder:

• 12 of 27 for 121 yards with 1 TD.

Texans 22  Broncos 17:  The Texans played well, but in reality, the Broncos lost the game more than the Texans won it.  Consider:

• Broncos’ Turnovers = 3  Texans’ Turnovers = 0
• Broncos third-down conversions = 0 for 11
• Broncos = 5.7 yards per pass attempt  Texans = 8.1 yards per pass attempt

The Broncos’ 5-game winning streak was snapped with this loss, but the AFC West got more interesting because the Chiefs also lost.  That means the Broncos did not lose any ground with their loss and since the Chargers won last week, they gained on everyone else in the division.  (The Raiders were on a BYE Week.)  The Texans remain in excellent position for a playoff slot; this morning they are tied with the Colts – – only one game behind the Jags in the AFC South.  The Broncos have come around to being a good football team; this win for the Texans is a significant one.

Niners 42  Eagles 19:  The Eagles had also won 5 in a row coming into this game as had the Broncos – – and both streaks came to an end last week.  This was not a fluke; the Niners were the better team on the field from start to finish outgaining the Eagles by 123 yards on the day.  It may be time for the Eagles’ fans to start worrying about the Eagles’ defense.  This is the fourth game this year that the Eagles have given up more than 30 points.

Lions 33 Saints 28:  This game was dead-even on the stat sheet save for 2 turnovers by the Saints and no turnovers by the Lions.  The Lions maintain a 3-game lead in the NGFC North while the Saints fall a game behind the Falcons – – and a tiebreaker behind the Bucs – – in the NFC South.  For the record, the last time the Lions were 9-3, was in 1962; to put some perspective on that, here are some of the personnel from the 1962 Detroit Lions:

• Defensive Tackle – – Alex Karras
• Defensive Tackle – – Roger Brown
• Linebacker – – Joe Schnidt
• DB – – Night Train Lane
• DB – – Dick LeBeau
• Defensive Coordinator – – Don Shula

Colts 31  Titans 28 (OT):  Gardner Minshew had a big day here with this stat line:

• 26 of 42 for 312 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs

The Colts have now won 4 games in a row tied with the Niners and Cowboys for the longest current win streak in the NFL.  Derrick Henry ran for two TDs for the Titans before having to leave the game as part of the concussion protocol.

Chargers 6  Pats 0:  The Pats are the first team in the NFL since 1938 to hold opponents to 10 points or fewer in three consecutive games and to lose all three games.  The Pats actually outgained the Chargers in the game 257 yards to 241 yards.  Both “scoring drives” by the Chargers that resulted in field goals began in the Pats half of the field.  Other than those events, this game was an offensive snoozer.  The teams were a combined 9 for 29 on third-down conversions and the teams combined to punt 15 times.

Dolphins 45  Commanders 15:  Well, the firing of the Commanders’ defensive coordinator and their defensive backs coach seems to have fixed – – not a whole lot.  Not only did the Commanders give up 45 points, but they also gave up some prodigious passing stats:

• Tua Tagovailoa was 18 of 24 for 280 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs
• Tyreek Hill caught 5 passes for 157 yards and 2 TDs
• Dolphins averaged 11.1 yards per pass attempt.

This is the third game in a row that Commanders’ QB, Sam Howell, threw a Pick-Six.  That was Howell’s 14^th INT for the season which leads the league.  That puts a damper on the stat that shows the Commanders at second in the NFL in passing yardage for the season.

Bucs 21  Panthers 18:  The Panthers led the game 10-7 with 5 minutes to go in the third quarter but then gave up 2 TDs in the next 8 minutes to give the Bucs a 21-10 lead that would hold up.  Bucs’ WR, Mike Evans, caught 7 passes for 162 yards and 1 TD in the game.

Rams 36  Browns 19:  Matthew Stafford threw 3 TD passes in the game and the Rams amassed 399 yards of offense against a very good defensive unit.  The Rams are now 6-6; are they seriously in the playoff mix?  Joe Flacco played well for the Browns as a stopgap QB with this stat line:

• 23 of 44 for 254 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT

The Browns now have two losses in a row.   Myles Garret played in this game – – sort of.  He had no sacks, no hits on the QAB and no tackles in the game.  But he was there and made the Rams “account for him”.

Packers 27  Chiefs 19:  The only thing wrong with this game was the officiating in the final minutes of the game where there were several calls made or not made that were simply incorrect.  Jordan Love played an excellent game throwing for 267 yards and 3 TDs with no INTs.  The Packers are now 6-6 and have won 3 games in a row; Jordan Love has shown growth in all those games.  Keep a close eye on the Packers in the playoff race from here forward because none of their remaining 5 opponents would be in the playoffs if the playoffs began this weekend.  The Packers might be 11-6 come playoff time …

 

NFL Games This Week:

 

This week marks the end of BYE Weeks for NFL teams.  There are two teams that have yet to get a week off until now:

1. Cardinals:  With their current 3-10 record, very few NFL fans will miss their presence this weekend
2. Commanders:  With their current 4-9 record, very few NFL fans will miss their presence this weekend.

Is there an echo in here …?

In last night’s game, the Pats beat the Steelers 21-18 in Pittsburgh.  The Steelers were 5.5-point favorites and the Total Line which opened at 35 points. had been bet down to 30.5 points at the kickoff.  Here are some of the reactions I recorded as I watched the game:

• Both teams scored on their first possessions?  Are the football gods going to prank us tonight?
• Score is 21-10 at the half – – so the game is already OVER with 30 minutes to play.
• Did the Pats’ offensive staff take some Quaaludes at halftime? Where is the “attack element”?
• Do the Steelers’ offensive gurus even know that Diontae Johnson and George Pickens are on the field?

Steelers’ fans have taken two gut-punches in the last 5 days:

1. Last weekend, the Steelers hosted the “2-win Cardinals” and lost straight up.
2. Last night, the Steelers hosted the “2-win Pats” and lost straight up.

Ten days ago, the Steelers were 7-4 with two home games against two dog-assed opponents – – and the Steelers lost at home to both of them.  This is more than just a big deal for the Steelers’ season.  Oh, by the way, the Pats snapped a 5-game losing streak with this win.

Jags at Browns – 3 (32):   With the Steelers/Pats game out of the way, this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week even though both teams have winning records and are in contention for their division titles.  If you “follow the money”, you have to believe that Trevor Lawrence will not be the QB for the Jags in this game.  The spread opened with the Jags as 3-point favorites and the Total Line was at 39.  The Jags’ offense is probably going to be stuck in second gear here – – but should anyone expect an offensive explosion from the Browns and Joe Flacco?

Rams at Ravens – 7 (38.5):  The Rams have won 3 games in a row to put themselves in the picture for an NFC wildcard slot, but this could be a tall order for them.  Both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nakua are dealing with injuries and the Rams’ defense will have to deal with Lamar Jackson who is a major problem for teams that have not faced him in the recent past because it is difficult to simulate him with one’s scout team.  The Ravens had BYE last week; the Rams will play an early start game coming from 3 times zones away.  I like the Ravens at home; I’ll lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Lions – 3 at Bears (43):  The Lions opened as 5-point favorites last Sunday night, but the spread has slowly dropped to this level.  The Lions are comfortably in first place in the NFC North; the Bears are comfortably in last place in the NFC North.

Panthers at Saints – 5 (38):  The Saints have a choice to make this week.  Derek Carr was in concussion protocol last week and has had “shoulder issues” for the past couple of weeks.  Jameis Winston is healthy – – but he is Jameis Winston meaning that there is no way the Saints’ coaching staff can anticipate what kind of game he will put out there.

Bucs at Falcons – 1 (41):  This is an important game.  The Falcons lead the NFC South at 6-6; the Bucs – – and the Saints – – are one game behind at 5-7.  A road win for the Bucs here plus a Saints win over the hapless Panthers would create a three-way tie for the division lead and would confer a degree of “importance” to subsequent NFC South games.  At least that gives me something to root for…

Colts at Bengals – 2 (44):  Here is another game where the favorite has changed during the week; the spread opened with the Colts as 2-point favorites.  Should you ride with Jake Browning to have another day passing for 350+ yards?  Are you ready for another roll of the dice in “Gardner Minshew Land”?  If the Jags stumble this week, the Colts can be tied for the lead in the AFC South with a win.  No thanks …

Texans – 3.5 at Jets (32):  I think this is a significant coaching challenge for DeMeco Ryans.  He has a very young team that is right in the thick of the playoff race going on the road to play a Jets’ team that seemingly cannot do anything right.  Ryans needs to be sure his guys don’t mail this game in because the Jets defense is for real.

Seahawks at Niners – 10.5 (47):  The spread opened with the Niners as 12.5-point favorites, but it dropped to this level very quickly and then held as the week went on.  The Seahawks have lost 3 games in a row and have not looked particularly good in any of them.  The Niners are on a roll.

Vikes – 3 at Raiders (40):  Both teams had BYE Weeks last week so no advantage there.  The Vikes must choose which of their QBs to start here.  Joshua Dobbs had a bad game two weeks ago; the other two guys are Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall.  The Vikes are alive for the NFC playoffs and a loss here would hurt those chances a lot; the Raiders would probably need to win out to be in the discussion for a low seed in the AFC.

Broncos at Chargers – 3 (44):  The Chargers’ season is on the line here; that’s all there is to it.

Bills at Chiefs – 1.5 (48):  This spread is all over the map.  It opened with the Chiefs as 3-point favorites.  This morning, you can find it at one sportsbook as a “pick ‘em” game and at another sportsbook with the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites – – and just about everywhere in between.  This was my runner-up for Game of the Week.  This is a huge game for both teams:

• The Bills are 6-6.  It could easily take 10 wins to make the AFC playoffs so a loss for the Bills could put them in a situation where they need to win out.
• The Chiefs are 8-4.  If they acquire a 5^th loss here, they are probably not going to get the first round BYE and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Bills were on their BYE Week last week which could be a slight advantage for them; the game is in KC which is a significant advantage for the Chiefs.    I see this as an offense-dominant game; I like it to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun Nite) Eagles at Cowboys – 3.5 (52):  The Cowboys have played 6 home games in 2023 with these results:

• Cowboys are 6-0
• Cowboys point differential in those 6 games = +151

This is the Game of the Week.  A Cowboys’ win would create a tie atop the NFC East and a tie for the best record in the NFC – – with the Niners and Lions lurking just a game behind.  An Eagles’ win would put them 2 games clear of the Cowboys with only 4 games left to play.

(Mon Nite) Titans at Dolphins – 13.5 (46):  The Dolphins were 12-point favorites at the opening, but the line jumped to this level rather quickly.  If you like trends, here is one for you:

• Dolphins are 5-0 at home in 2023.
• Titans are 0-6 on the road in 2023.
• Dolphins are at home here; Titans are on the road…

(Mon Nite) Packers – 6.5 at Giants (36):  The Packers were only 4.5-point favorites earlier this week, but this line just climbed steadily as time went on.  The Packers have won three in a row and Jordan Love seems to improve from game to game.  I was impressed by the Packers and by Love last week in the win over the Chiefs.  I think the Packers are on a roll and will make the NFC playoffs come January.  Nothing remotely similar to those statements apply to the Giants.  Even on the road, I’ll take the Packers to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

So, let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Ravens – 7 over Rams
• Bills/Chiefs OVER 48
• Packers – 6.5 over Giants.

            And here is a Money Line Parlay too:

• Packers @ minus-280
• Ravens @ minus-320
• Dolphins @ minus-700         $100 wager to win $104.

            I’ll close this week with these words of wisdom from former Notre Dame coach, Lou Holtz:

“The man who complains about the way the ball bounces is likely to be the one who dropped it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In a recent rant, I noted the serious decline in importance and relevance of Sports Illustrated over the last 25-30 years.  For about 30 years, it was the pinnacle of sports journalism/reporting, but now it has devolved into a monthly publication that has been shown to release things written in the main by an Artificial Intelligence proxy under a fictitious byline.  That is quite a fall from grace.

During the year, SI’s  readers could anticipate several annual “events”:

• In February there was the “Swimsuit Issue”
• In March there was the MLB Preview Issue
• In August there was the college and NFL Preview Issue – – and – –

In December, Sports Illustrated would identify “The Sportsman of the Year.”  Naturally, the award these days is labeled as the Sportsperson of the Year but ever since Roger Bannister was the first recipient in 1954 for breaking the four-minute mile barrier, the award has gone to people with notable achievements in that year.  Here are just a few of the recipients that you will surely recall:

• Arnold Palmer
• Sandy Koufax
• Muhammed Ali
• Chris Evert
• Wayne Gretzky
• You get the idea …

The “definition” of the award winner – – offered up by the folks at Sports Illustrated who created and maintained the award – – is as follows:

“… the athlete or team whose performance that year most embodies the spirit of sportsmanship and achievement.”

And that brings us to 2023 when the Sportsperson of the Year is identified as – – drum roll please – – Deion Sanders.

I have no animus for Deion Sanders; I think his Colorado football team represented a significant improvement over recent editions of Colorado football teams.  This year, the Buffaloes quadrupled the number of wins as compared to last year’s Buffaloes.  Deion Sanders brought attention to Colorado football that had not been there for at least 25 years, and he brought a lot of attention to college football in general.  What he did this year is undoubtedly praiseworthy.

Now let me channel my inner Stephen A. Smith … How-evah, the award is supposed to embody the spirit of “sportsmanship and achievement.”  And try as I may, I cannot dress up Deion Sanders’ accomplishments in 2023 in either the cloak of sportsmanship or the robes of achievement.  Frankly, I would prefer to see any of the following receive this award based on “sportsmanship and achievement”:

• Novak Djokovic
• Patrick Mahomes
• Lionel Messi
• Shohei Ohtani

Moving on …  Yesterday, I supported the choices made by the CFP Selection Committee for the four tournament participants.  My support for their decisions has not changed but I would lose a ton of “Curmudgeon Credibility” if I did not point out a possibility that could cause a humongous case of heartburn in the sports world.  Remember, I said “possibility”:

1. Alabama beats previously undefeated Michigan in the Rose Bowl.
2. Texas beats previously undefeated Washington in the Sugar Bowl.
3. Florida St. beats Georgia in the Orange Bowl.

In that case, the only undefeated Power 5 team would be ACC Champion Florida St. but the CFP-determined champion would be the winner of the Alabama/Texas rematch involving two teams who would enter the game with a loss.  Florida St. would be “left out” with a 14-0 record.  Senator Rick Scott (R- FL) has already blown a gasket issuing statements and “demanding answers” as to how/why FSU could have been degraded by the Selection Committee.  If the scenario above were to come to pass, he might go apoplectic.

Finally, having mentioned Senator Scott, let me close here with an observation by author Saul Bellow regarding politicians:

“Take our politicians: they’re a bunch of yo-yos.  The presidency is now a cross between a popularity contest and a high school debate with an encyclopedia of cliches as the first prize.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The CFP Selection Committee has done its selecting for the CFP and the other major New Year’s Day Bowl Games.  As is always the case, there are screams of outrage at the make-up of the CFP participants; I am not particularly offended by the CFP field because:

• I believe that the Committee should choose the 4 best teams today as the participants.
• I do not believe that teams “deserve a CFP slot” based purely on their records; if they did, then Liberty would be a shoo-in.

Yes, I know the selection process must be subjective until the 4 teams sort out the tournament champion on the field, but my personal interpretation of what the Committee ought to do flies in the face of something I have said repeatedly in my Football Friday rants:

• I have said that Florida St. was back in the national discussion as a top-tier team and the Committee should remember them as a top team when decision time arrived.
• Then, the Seminoles lost their starting QB and their backup QB.  Yes, Florida St. managed to beat Louisville for the ACC Championship with its backup-backup QB, but please recall that no one – – as in nobody – – thought Louisville was a playoff candidate.
• A month ago, Florida St. looked like a strong candidate as a CFP selection; that was then, and this is now.

If you assume that Michigan and Washington are mortal locks for a place in the CFP, then there are two openings left this year.  If you also assume – – as do I – – that Liberty University as an undefeated conference champion does not belong in the CFP field, then two “one-loss teams” will be in the field.  I have reconstructed the “strength of schedule” for candidates for the two open slots.  The following is a table with the won/lost records and winning percentage for the opponents of various candidates:

• Opponents of Alabama were 85-59  Win percentage = .591
• Opponents of Ohio St. were 82-62  Win percentage = .569
• Opponents of Texas were 81-63  Win percentage = .563
• Opponents of Georgia were 75-69  Win percentage = .521
• Opponents of Florida St. were 67-76  Win percentage = .469

Now, if “strength of schedule” is to be a factor in the selection process, that would put Alabama in for sure.  The choice between Ohio St. and Texas is a tossup by strength of schedule measures but putting Texas in the field over Ohio St. allows two things to happen:

• First, there are 4 different conferences represented in the CFP – – AND – –
• Since Texas beat Alabama earlier, it puts the winner of that game in the CFP.

I do not know if that is the logic used by the committee members, but it is logical enough for me to forget about flying into an Internet rage this morning.  I have seen all four of these teams play at least one full game this year; there is no weak sister in the field.

The other four “New Year’s Day Bowl Games” have interesting aspects that make for potentially good viewing:

• Dec 29^th  Cotton Bowl:  Missouri/Ohio St.  The Ohio St. QB just entered the transfer portal.
• Dec 30^th  Peach Bowl:  Ole Miss/Penn St.  Ole Miss is 15^th nationally in Total Offense per game and Penn St. is #1 in the nation in Total Defense.
• Dec 30^th  Orange Bowl:  Georgia/Florida St.:  The early line has Georgia as a 2 TD favorite.
• Jan 1^st  Fiesta Bowl:  Liberty/Oregon:  A test of the importance of “strength of schedule”.

Possibly the least interesting of all the bowl games is the one where Minnesota (5-7 for the season) will take on Bowling Green (a team that went 5-3 in the MAC).  That game will take place on Dec. 26^th.  My advice would be for you to use the time that the game is on to do something else that will be constructive for your life.

Possibly the most interesting of the so-called minor bowl games is the Sun Bowl which will be played on Dec 29^th featuring Notre Dame and Oregon St.  That game should be a nice “appetizer” for the main course that evening between Missouri and Ohio St.

The proliferation of bowl games puts a perverse twist on college football.  Teams use bowl games to generate revenue for the athletic department plus it gives teams extra time for practices as they prep for the bowl game which also means extra preparation for spring practice and for next season.  So, far, that does not sound “perverse” until you realize that the worst teams for this year – – the ones that might need extra practice time to be more competitive for next season – – are exactly the teams that do not get that extra practice time because they do not merit bowl invitations.

Finally, I’ll close today with these words from Mark Twain:

“There’s one sure way to find out if a man is honest: ask him; if he says yes, you know he is crooked.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Albert Einstein supposedly said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.  Well, here is Curmudgeon Central, we are not insane.  We do the same thing over and over every Friday in the Fall, but we expect the same result – – Football Friday.  So let us begin in the same way we begin every iteration of Football Friday – – a recap of last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

• College  =  2-0-0  =>   Season  =  18-8-0
• NFL  =  2-1-0   =>   Season  =  16-12-0
• Parlays = 0-1  Loss = $100   =>   Season = 7-10  Profit = $53

 

College Football Commentary:

 

According to a report by the Associated Press, James Madison University is going to a bowl game after all.  It turns out that they can go to a bowl game if there are not enough qualifying Division 1-A teams with 6 wins for the season.  Given all the minor bowl games, there are 82 slots open; this year only 79 teams qualified so that opened the door for James Madison and Jacksonville St. to come off the “Ineligible List” raising the number of teams to 81 and leaving one slot empty.  The NCAA steps in at this point and uses some mysterious algorithm to determine which of its 5-7 teams has the best academic progress toward degree status for its athletes.  This year, that distinction goes to Minnesota who will get a bowl bid with a 5-7 record.

I said back in August that Rice would be an interesting program to follow this year because QB JT Daniels was going to finish his career with the Owls.  Well, Daniels played most of the year before getting injured and Rice needed a late season win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2014.  Rice would not have had to wait until the last game of the season for 6 wins had it not lost a game that should have been easy for them against UConn, but given that loss, it took a final week victory over Florida Atlantic to even up the Owls’ record at 6-6.

Another of the major coaching vacancies has been filled.  We knew last week about Mike Elko replacing Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M.  This week, Michigan St. filled the vacancy created by the dismissal of Mel Tucker by hiring former Oregon St. head coach, Jonathan Smith.  Oregon St. was in the race for a slot in the PAC-12 Championship Game until late in the season when they suffered losses to Washington and Oregon – – the two teams that will battle it out for the last ever PAC-12 Championship this weekend.

Let me take a look at some results from last week:

SMU 59  Navy 14:  SMU plays for the American Athletic Conference Championship this week.  The score was 52-14 at halftime; remember, Navy’s defense has had three shutouts this year so scoring 59 points is not something to be ignored.

Tulane 29  UTSA 16:  Tulane will play SMU for the AAC Championship.  Tulane finished the year at 11-1 and the only loss happened back in early September at the hands of Ole Miss.

Oregon 31  Oregon St.  7:  It was not a good day for the Beavers; they lost the game, and they lost their coach to Michigan St. (see above).  Oregon finished the year 11-1 and will play Washington for the PAC-12 Championship.

Washington 24  Washington St. 21:  State outgained the Huskies by 75 yards in the game, but Washington kicked a game-winning field goal at the buzzer to finish the regular season undefeated at 12-0.  The annual Apple Cup will continue for at least five more years (through 2028).  The schools agreed to that scheduling commitment even though the teams will not be in the same conference starting next year.  Maybe that agreement might be a model for Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. to use as a way to continue “Bedlam” as part of their football schedule?

Utah 23  Colorado 17:  Utah held Colorado’s running game to 37 yards – – on 17 rushing attempts – – in this game.

Notre Dame 56  Stanford 23:  The stat sheet is about as ugly as the score in this game:

• ND Offense = 521 yards   Stanford Offense = 347 yards
• ND third-down conversions = 7 of 9   Stanford third-down conversions = 5 of 16
• ND yards per rush = 7.9   Stanford yards per rush = 4.1

Cal 33  UCLA 7:  Cal is now bowl eligible.  UCLA won the stat sheet outgaining Cal by 78 yards for the game.  The Bruins were 10.5-point favorites here, but 4 turnovers did them in.

Arizona 59  Arizona St.  23:  Here is a thumbnail sketch of how this game went down:

• Arizona Offense = 619 yards (527 yards passing)
• Arizona St. Offense = 306 yards (82 yards passing)

Michigan 30  Ohio St.  24:  Michigan and Iowa will play for the Big-10 Championship.  Ohio St. outgained Michigan by 40 yards in the game.  The Buckeyes had the ball and were driving in Michigan territory in the final minute, but an INT by Michigan put an end to that threat.

Iowa 13  Nebraska 10:  The Total Line for this game closed at 24.5 points and the game still went UNDER !!!

Northwestern 45  Illinois 43:  With this result, the Illini fall 2 points short of bowl eligibility…

Georgia 31  Georgia Tech 23:  Georgia led 31-13 to start the 4^th quarter but Tech made a game of it coming within one score with about 4 minutes left in the game.

Alabama 27  Auburn 24:  Two weeks ago, Auburn lost at home to New Mexico St. by 3 TDs; this week it took an Alabama TD in the final minute of the game to cost Auburn a huge upset.  Georgia and Alabama will play for the SEC Championship this weekend.

LSU 42  Texas A&M 30:  LSU QB, Jayden Daniels put on a show here:

• 16 of 24 for 235 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs – – PLUS – –
• 11 rushing attempts for 120 yards and 0 TDs.

The two offenses were very efficient; the teams combined to go 14 of 27 on third-down conversions and 4 of 6 on fourth-down conversions.

Tennessee 48  Vandy 24:  Vandy finishes the year with a 2-10 record.  The Commodores have only had 3 winning seasons in football since 1982.

Florida St.  24  Florida 15:  The Seminoles remain undefeated for the year at 12-0 and Florida finishes with a 5-7 record meaning no bowl game for the Gators for the first time since 2017 and only the second time since 1986.

Kentucky 38  Louisville 31:  That is only the second loss of the year for Louisville, but it means that only Florida St. from the ACC has any hope of being in the CFP this year.  Louisville and Florida St. will square off this weekend for the ACC Championship.

Syracuse 35  Wake Forest 31:  This win makes Syracuse bowl eligible.  Wake Forest will stay home this year finishing with a 4-8 record.

Clemson 16  South Carolina 7:  The Gamecocks will not play in a bowl game this year for the first time since Shane Beamer took over the program in 2021.  The score was closer than the stat sheet would indicate.  Clemson gained 319 yards on offense and held South Carolina to only 169 yards in the game.

NC St. 39  UNC 20:  The Tar Heels started the season with 6 straight wins; then they lost two games in a row to Virginia and Georgia Tech.  Things seemed back on track after UNC demolished a cupcake opponent and then beat Duke in overtime.  But the season ended with two more consecutive losses to Clemson and then here to NC State.  UNC is bowl eligible with an 8-4 record; NC State finishes the season at 9-3.

San Jose St. 37  UNLV 31.  Three teams finish the season with 6-2 conference records in the Mountain West Conference.  UNLV had already clinched a share of its first conference title regardless of the outcome here, but the Rebels’ loss left UNLV, San Jose State and Boise State in a three-way tie for first place in the conference. A computer algorithm determined that the MWC Championship Game would be between UNLV and Boise St.  San Jose St. presented a balanced offense for the game against UNLV:

• Passing offense = 249 yards
• Rushing offense = 233 yards.

Boise St. 27  Air Force 19:  This result put Boise St. into the computer showdown that decided who plays for the MWC championship.  Air Force started the year with 8 straight wins and finished with 4 straight losses.

Oklahoma 69  TCU 45:  The teams combined for 1127 yards and 54 first downs on offense.  The Sooners only punted once in the game.

Texas 57  Texas Tech 7:  Texas is 11-1 and will play Oklahoma St. in the Big-12 Championship Game.  Texas Tech is a bowl eligible team, but the Red Raiders were outgained 528 yards to 198 yards here.

Old Dominion 25  Georgia St. 24:  Old Dominion trailed 21-7 at the start of the 4^th quarter but rallied to win the game making ODU bowl eligible.  To demonstrate how even this game was, consider:

• ODU Offense = 313 yards   Ga St. Offense = 300 yards
• ODU first downs = 15   Ga St. first downs = 14
• ODU punts = 7   Ga St. Punts = 7
• ODU penalties = 7 for 67 yards   Ga St. penalties = 7 for 60 yards

JMU 57  Coastal Carolina 14:  JMU finishes the year with an 11-1 record in its second season in Division 1-A football.  They are probably the best college football team in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Liberty 42  UTEP 28:  Liberty finishes the year undefeated at 12-0.  They just might be the second-best college football team in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

New Mexico St. 20  Jacksonville St.  17:  New Mexico St. finishes the season with a 10-3 record.  This is a significant turnaround for a football program that was basically asked to leave the Sun Belt Conference in recent years.  This makes 2 winning seasons in a row for New Mexico St. and the last time that happened was in 1966-1967.

UConn 31  UMass 18:  Both teams are now 3-9 for the season.  Are both teams going to be in the SHOE Tournament this year?  Check below to find out…

The SHOE Tournament is a figment of my imagination.  I devised it as a way to determine the worst Division 1-A team of the year.  The acronym “SHOE” stands for Steaming Heap Of Excrement and the tournament field is selected by a committee of one – – me.  The idea is for 8 teams to play one another in a single elimination tournament with a twist.  In the SHOE Tournament, the winner goes home not the loser.  To determine the worst team in the country, it is the loser that must play-on.  And so, without further ado, here are the 8 teams in the SHOE Tournament for 2023 seeded from1 to 8 starting with the team seeded as the worst in the country:

• #1 Kent St. (1-11) – – They are the only team with only one win for the season, and playing in the MAC means they do not face fearsome opponents every week.  By the way, that lone win came at the expense of Central Connecticut St.  They ranked dead last in scoring offense in the country this year at 14.7 points per game.
• #2 Akron (2-10) – – Another MAC team in the field.  Those two wins were over Morgan St. and – – you guessed it – – Kent St.  The Zips averaged all of 16.3 points per game scored.
• #3 Vandy (2-10) – – Yes, playing an SEC schedule is tough.  But Vandy’s two wins were over Hawaii and Alabama A&M back in August and early September.  The Commodores lost their last 10 games giving up 35 points or more in 8 of them.
• #4 East Carolina (2-10) – – Those two wins were against Gardner Webb and Florida Atlantic.  They ranked 128^th in the country in scoring offense at 17.3 points per game despite scoring 44 points in the win over Gardner Webb.
• #5 La-Monroe (2-10) – – The two wins were over Army and Lamar.  Their average margin of defeat for the year was 17.6 points.
• #6 Nevada (2-10) – – The good news is that the two wins were both over Division 1-A teams, New Mexico and San Diego St.  The bad news is that they lost to a Division 1-AA opponent, Idaho.
• #7 UMass (3-9) – – They simply must be in this tournament because they have the worst scoring defense in the country giving up 37.8 points per game.
• # 8 UNC-Charlotte (3-9) – – Two of those three wins were almost gimmees – – South Carolina St. and East Carolina (seeded #4 here).  The other win was over Tulsa who finished the year at 4-8.

Let the games begin …

And before moving on to this week’s action, I want to congratulate the Minutemen of UMass for winning the 2023 Brothel Defense Award given to the team that allows the most points per game in Division 1-A college football.  Why is it the Brothel Defense Award?  Simple.  Everyone scores easily.

• [Aside:  UMass has now won this award twice in the 4-year history of the award.]

 

Games This Week:

 

There are lots of important games this weekend and there is the possibility for the results to create chaos or certainty for the CFP Selection Committee.  Before I get to various scenarios, I think it is important to understand what I believe is the charge to the Selection Committee:

• I believe they are “chartered” to select the 4 BEST teams for the CFP that is to be played in late December/early January.
• That is a different charge than “rewarding” teams that earned a shot to be in the CFP.
• Please keep this distinction in mind later when I am probably going to take an unpopular position as to the teams that should be in or out.

Let me go through a “certainty scenario”:

• Michigan beats Iowa to be the Big-10 Champ.  They’re in
• Georgia beats Alabama to reign over the SEC.  They’re in
• Either Washington or Oregon wins HUGE.  They’re in.
• And then … what?

Even before Florida St. and Louisville take the field for their conference championship game, let me say something that is obverse to what I have been saying in these Football Friday pieces for the last month or so:

• Florida St. using a backup QB is not obviously one of the 4 best teams to be in the CFP this year.  Do you put them in because they “earned it?”
• If Texas beats Oklahoma St. and finishes with only one loss, should the Longhorns fill out the CFP field?
• What consideration should be given to Ohio St. and/or the loser of the PAC-12 Championship Game?
• Alabama?

I know; hundreds of Seminoles’ fans read that and freaked out.  Nevertheless, if my model of the CFP Selection Committee charge is correct, then Florida St. without QB, Jordan Travis, is not one of the best four teams in the country at this point in the season.

But a “certainty scenario” like the one created above only obtains if there are no major upsets this weekend. But suppose upsets were the order of the day this weekend and college football chaos ensues:

• Alabama beats Georgia.  Then, there would be no undefeated team in or around the SEC.  Would the CFP make sense with no SEC representative?
• If you compare “one-loss Alabama” to “one-loss Georgia” to “one-loss Texas”, you have to remember that Texas beat Alabama straight up this year.
• Suppose Iowa beats Michigan 10-9.  Then, what?  Does Florida St. begin to look like one of the best teams in any of these scenarios?

The Selection Committee will take heat regardless of what happens this weekend, but they might be in store for major heat in a chaos scenario.  So, let us now turn to this week’s games:

(Fri Nite)  Oregon – 10 vs Washington (66):  This is the College Game of the Week.  The spread opened at 7.5 points; Oregon is favored despite having lost to Washington earlier this year by a field goal.  Since that first meeting, Oregon has been blowing opponents away while Washington has remained undefeated but has not appeared dominant.  A win for the Huskies will guarantee them a place in the CFP.  The PAC-12 has not been part of the CFP since 2016 and this is the last year of the PAC-12’s existence.  In a Hollywood script, Washington would win this game on the final play.  Given recent performance, I think Oregon is the better team, but I am not comfortable with a double-digit spread.  I may regret this, but I think the Total Line is too high; give me the UNDER in this game; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Fri Nite)  New Mexico St. vs Liberty – 11 (57):  The spread opened at 6.5 points and has risen through 7 points and 10 points which are two common point differences.  Either there has been a lot of money showing up on undefeated Liberty here or the action is so thin that even a few relatively small wagers have moved the line.  The winner will be the C-USA champion; neither of these schools has ever won the conference title.  If Liberty wins and remains undefeated, they might get the New Year’s Day bowl slot that is “reserved” for a team not in a Power-5 conference.  These teams met in the regular season and Liberty won by 16 points.

Oklahoma St. vs Texas – 15 (55):  This line opened at 11.5 points and has been rising all week; one sportsbook this morning has the line at 16 points.  I was surprised to learn that this will be the first time Texas has had a shot at the Big-12 Championship since 2009; to give you an idea how long ago that was, the Texas QB that season was Colt McCoy.  A win for the Longhorns will keep them in the discussion for a CFP slot; Oklahoma St. has 3 losses this year and will not be part of the CFP under any scenario.

Miami (OH) vs Toledo – 8 (44):  The winner is the MAC champion.  These teams met earlier this year with Toledo winning by 4 points.  Toledo has won 11 games in a row after losing the season opener to Illinois.

Boise St. – 3 vs UNLV (59):  The winner is the Mountain West champion.  This is the first time UNLV has played for the title; Boise St. has been in a position to win that title 7 times.  Boise St. scores 32 points per game and averages 208 yards rushing per game.  Those numbers are a bit surprising for a team that is only 7-5 overall this season.  UNLV relies on its passing game which averages 237 yards per game.  UNLV has been a football doormat for a while now; they should be motivated to win this game being played in Las Vegas; I’ll take the Rebels plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

SMU vs Tulane – 4 (47):  The winner here is the AAC Champion; if Tulane wins, it will be their second consecutive conference championship.  Tulane has won 10 games in a row; SMU has won 8 games in a row.  SMU ranks 4^th in the country in scoring average at 41.8 points per game but Tulane only gives up 18.3 points per game.  SMU will be without its starting QB in the game, probably explaining the low Total Line.

Georgia – 5.5 vs Alabama (54.5):  This game is another pupil vs master confrontation.  Nick Saban has beaten Kirby Smart in SEC Championship Games when they have met in the past.  In fact, Georgia has won its last 29 games in a row with the last loss coming at the hands of Alabama in the SEC Championship Game in 2021.

Appalachian St. vs Troy – 5.5 (52):  The winner is the Sun Belt champion because James Madison is not allowed to compete for that honor this year despite an overall record of 11-1.  The one loss for JMU was an OT game that Appalachian St. won by a field goal two weeks ago.

Louisville vs Florida St. – 2 (47.5):  I said above that I do not consider Florida St. to be one of the 4 best teams in the country at this point with their starting QB on the shelf.  However, in the history of the CFP, the Committee has never left out a Power 5 champion who was undefeated for the season.  So, history says that Florida St. is in a “win-and-you’re-in” situation.  The Seminoles average 39 points per game; the Cardinals average 33 points per game; yet the Total Line is only 47.5 points.  That tells you how highly both defenses are regarded.

Michigan – 22 vs Iowa (34.5):  Everyone knows about Iowa’s defensive prowess; here are data to put that in perspective.

• Iowa is dead last in the country in Total Offense per game at 246.3 yards per game.
• The next-to-last team in Total Offense is SHOE team, Kent St. at 270.4 yards per game.
• Nonetheless, Iowa has an overall record of 10-2 for the season.

I do not think this will be a particularly interesting game to watch and none of the numbers here are close to making the game an interesting wagering proposition.  For the record, the line for Iowa’s total score in the game is set at 7.5 points; but if you bet the UNDER, the odds are minus-210.  Wow!

 

NFL Commentary:

 

There is still plenty of time left in the NFL regular season for a team to “get hot”.  However, I also think there is also plenty of time left in the NFL regular season for a team to “stink it up”.  And that sort of thinking makes me wonder if the winner of the NFC South this year could host a playoff game despite having a losing record.

• The Falcons lead the division with a 5-6 record.  With a QB tandem of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heineke, do you trust the Falcons to go 4-2 in the remaining regular season games?
• The Saints also have a record of 5-6.  Big things were expected of the Saints this year with their acquisition of Derek Carr to play QB and those expectations have not come close to being fulfilled.  The Saints also need to go 4-2 for the rest of the regular season to post a winning record.
• The Bucs are 4-7 this morning and would need to win 5 of their last 6 games to have a winning record.  Frankly, the Bucs are closer to being a team that needs a tear-down/rebuild than to a team about to win 5 of 6 games.
• The Panthers cannot post a winning record even if they win out in the regular season – – which they will not do.

I think the NFC South can be won by a team finishing with an 8-9 record; and then, that team will be cannon fodder in the NFC playoffs.

I mentioned above that the Falcons’ QB situation is “less than ideal”.  Just for perspective, the Falcons’ QB tandem is significantly better than the Pats’ QB tandem.  Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe would have to improve by 100% to qualify as a dumpster fire.

And do not get me started on the Jets’ QB situation …

I may have been over my skis in dismissing Jordan Love as a competent NFL QB earlier this year.  My impression in early games was that he was overwhelmed by the skills of NFL defenders; after seeing him in recent games against the Lions and the Chargers, I think he is developing and improving rapidly.  I do not have a firm opinion about “his ceiling”, but I no longer think he is over his head in the NFL.  The Packers have a relatively soft schedule to finish the season; with their record now at 5-6, they could finish at 9-8 – – or even 10-7.  Here is that remaining schedule:

• Vs. Chiefs
• At Giants
• Vs. Bucs
• At Panthers
• At Vikes
• Vs. Bears

Speaking of schedules that set up nicely, consider the Jags’ remining games.

• Vs. Bengals – – no Joe Burrow
• At Browns – – QB uncertain
• Vs Ravens – – tough game
• At Bucs – – record is 4-7 as of this morning
• Vs Panthers – – what a goat rodeo
• At Titans – – record is 4-7 as of this morning.

The Jags are now 8-3 on the season; looking at that schedule, a final record of 12-5 looks highly probable.

The NFL and its broadcasting partners have agreed to permit schedule flexing late in the season; such flexing allows for important games to be put in prime TV time slots.  Until now, the only flexing has involved moving games on a given day to a different starting time.  That is going to change in Week 15 of this year:

• MNF was originally scheduled to be Chiefs/Pats.  As of today, that game does not look as if it will be very competitive even if you chant the mantra of “On any given Sunday – – or Monday …”
• So, the NFL is going to move the Eagles/Seahawks game from Sunday to Monday night and put that game on ESPN.  The Chiefs and Pats will play on Sunday that weekend in the 1:00 PM ET time slot.

Just to keep you abreast of a running storyline here, Sam Howell has now been sacked 54 times in 12 games which projects to a season total of 76.5 sacks.  The all-time NFL record is 76 sacks in a season.  Stay tuned…

So let me review what happened last week:

Dolphins 34  Jets 13:  Can everyone now take a deep breath and allow themselves to conclude that Zach Wilson was not THE cause of the Jets’ offensive stench in 2023?

• Jets Total Offense = 159 yards

Here is Tim Boyle’s stat line – – playing behind an OL that might not be able to find work as piano movers should the Jets cut them loose:

• 27 of 38 for 179 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs.
• That is 6.6 yards per completion and 4.7 yards per attempt.

I don’t care how good the Jets’ defense is; that sort of offensive output will not lead to team success.  The Jets’ offense is not stuck in low gear; it is stuck in reverse; the Jets’ offense was an embarrassment here.

Packers 29  Lions 22:  The Lions have a 50-year tradition of screwing up anything that seems to be “success”.  Is this game a harbinger of a return to that status?  For a team comfortably leading their division and one that some folks think should be in the NFC Conference Championship Game, the first half performance here was as relaxing and pleasing as an atonal symphony created by Igor Stravinsky might have been to Mozart’s audiences.  The Packers were in control of the game from the start; they took advantage of 3 lost fumbles by Jared Goff including one that turned into a “Scoop-and-Score”.  The Lions made this a one-score game with less than a minute to play – – and then reverted to “Lions football”.  Clearly, an onside kick was in the offing – – but the Lions were lined up in an illegal formation on that onside kickoff attempt.

Cowboys 45  Commanders 10:  The game was actually close enough at halftime for Commanders’ fanboys to think about a miracle finish by the hometown heroes that pulled out a win in the final moments.  Not happening!  The second half score was:

• Cowboys  25
• Commanders   0
  

The Commanders produced some good news and some bad news on the stat sheet for offense:

• Third down conversions for Commanders = 7 of 15    Good News!
• Fourth down conversions by commanders = 0 of 3  Not Good News!
• Commanders turned the ball over only once.  Good News!
• That turnover by the Commanders was a Pick-Six.  Not Good News!

I ran across this stat but did not record where I found it, but it is worth noting:

Over the last 25 years, NFL teams have gone 57-0 when they have posted these stats in a game:

• 100+ yards rushing
• 250+ yards passing.
• 35:00+ time of possession
• Fewer than 25 yards in penalties – – AND – –
• Fewer than 2 turnovers.

The Commanders did all that on Thanksgiving Day and lost by 5 TDs.  Amazing…

Niners 31  Seahawks 13:  This game was not nearly as close as the score might indicate.  The Niners were the dominant team on the field from start to finish.

Titans 17  Panthers 10:  Brice Young and Will Levis – – two rookie QBs – – had the same game here:

• 18 of 31 for 194 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs  (Young)
• 18 of 28 for 185 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs  (Levis)

Giants 10  Pats 7:  What a train-wreck of a game …  I got to see Tommy DeVito, Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe try to play the role of an NFL QB.  The Pats’ QB tandem averaged 3.7 yards per pass attempt and they threw 3 INTs for the day – – the last INT late in the 4^th quarter set up the Giant’s winning field goal.  Meanwhile, the Giants’ QB was sacked 5 times in the game.  Phew …

Jags 24  Texans 21:  the Jags held on for the win when a 58-yard field goal try in the final seconds hit the crossbar but did not bounce through the goal posts.  Both QBs put on a show in this game:

• 23 of 38 for 364 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT  (Lawrence)
• 26 of 36 for 304 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs  (Stroud)

The Texans ran the ball effectively in the game, averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

Falcons 24  Saints 15:  The Falcons are now tied with the Saints in the NFC South; both teams are 5-6 with the Bucs only one game behind them.  One of these teams will win this division but I have little interest in watching them figure out who it will be.  The stat sheet for this game was basically a dead heat.  Derek Carr threw for 304 yards for the Saints but never found the end zone; the Saints scoring consisted of 5 field goals for the game.

Steelers 16  Bengals 10:  Well, it finally happened.  The Steelers got a new play-caller and a new offensive coordinator and then they generated 421 yards on offense in the game.  Considering that the Steelers’ defense held the Bengals to only 222 yards on offense, the score here is surprisingly close.  The Bengals had Joe Burrow on the sidelines in street clothes and the product on the field showed his absence:

• Bengals’ time of possession was 22:43
• Bengals ran only 41 offensive plays in the game.
• Bengals were only 2 of 10 on third-down conversions.

Colts 27  Bucs 20:  Jonathan Taylor ran for two TDs for the Colts; Mike Evans caught 2 TD passes for the Bucs.  In terms of other offensive happenings, it was to the Colts advantage; they outgained the Bucs by 96 yards in the game.  The Colts’ record is 6-5 putting them 2 games behind the Jags in the AFC South and if the playoffs started this weekend, the Colts would be the 7^th seed in the AFC.

Broncos 29  Browns 12:  The Broncos have now won 5 games in a row; that streak is tied with the Eagles for the longest current winning streak in the league.  The stat sheet makes this game appear to be a nail-biter on the scoreboard, but it was a comfortable win for the Broncos.  The Browns lost QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson to concussion protocol and then Myles Garrett to a shoulder injury.  If both are lost for any period of time, the Browns’ season may be circling the drain.

Eagles 37  Bills 34 (OT):  This was another ugly win by the Eagles – – but there are no style points awarded in the NFL.  Consider these stat comparisons:

• Bills’ Total Offense = 505 yards   Eagles’ Total Offense = 378 yards
• Bills’ Time of Possession = 40:30  Eagles’ Time of Possession = 26:53
• Bills’ third-down conversions = 13 of 22  Eagles’ third-down conversions = 4 of 11
• Bills ran 92 plays   Eagles ran 65 plays.
• Bills committed 1 turnover   Eagles committed 2 turnovers.

Not only did this game somehow go to OT, but the Eagles also came away with a victory. A playoff slot for the Bills is questionable – – but not impossible.  The Bills are 6-6 putting them half a game behind the Colts (6-5) for the 7^th playoff slot in the AFC. Also, the Texans and the Broncos are 6-5 and lead the Bills via tiebreakers.  However, if Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense can play each week like they did against the Eagles, the Bills will be a playoff team.

• [Aside:  It might be a good idea for the Bills to avoid any more OT games as they try to make a run to the playoffs.  Josh Allen has been in 6 OT games in his career and the Bills’ record in those games is 0-6.]

Chiefs 31  Raiders 17:  The Raiders raced off to a 14-0 lead with 12 minutes to play in the second quarter.  After that, the Raiders could only manage a field goal while the Chiefs scored 31 points.  The Chiefs’ offense gets all the attention, but the Chiefs’ defense has now held 11 consecutive opponents to 24 or fewer points.  The Chiefs’ defense shut down the Raiders’ offense in the second half, holding them to 113 yards.

Ravens 20  Chargers 10:  This game was in doubt until late in the 4^th quarter; the Ravens lead was only 13-10 when Zay Flowers took a jet sweep handoff and ran 37 yards for a TD with a minute and a half left on the clock.  The Chargers are now in last place in the AFC West.

 

Games This Week:

 

Six teams have the week off:

1. Bears:  Not sure too many people will even notice that they are not playing.
2. Bills:  Need to shake off that heart-breaking loss to the Eagles last week.
3. Giants:  Need to figure out how to score; they have scored the fewest points in the league.
4. Raiders:  Record on the road is 1-5; how to fix that?
5. Ravens:  All they need is some R&R and time to heal some injuries.
6. Vikes:  Can they hang on to the playoff slot they have in hand as of today?

In last night’s game, the Cowboys beat the Seahawks 41-35.  The oddsmakers had the game pegged as a low-scoring event; the Total Line closed at 47.5 points.  The game went OVER with 10 minutes left in the third quarter.  The two teams combined for 819 yards of offense.  Both QBs put on a show for the fans:

• 29 of 41 for 299 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs (Dak Prescott)
• 23 of 41 for 334 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT (Geno Smith)

If you are an aficionado of the punting game, this was not a game of interest for you; neither team punted even once.

There is a surfeit of mediocre matchups this week; I had to sift through 4 games to find the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  One interesting feature of this week’s card is that there are 12 games:

• Road teams are favored in 7 games.
• Home teams are favored in 5 games.

Chargers – 5 at Pats (40):  Call this the Underachievement Bowl.  Both teams find ways to lose games.  It’s a long way to Tipperary – – and it’s a long way from LA to Foxboro.  To what end…?

Lions – 4 at Saints (47):  I am tempted by the OVER here because the Lions’ defense has been porous of late.  But I just do not trust the Saints after last week where they could not score a TD and had to kick 5 field goals to get on the scoreboard.

Falcons – 2 at Jets (33.5):  Desmond Ridder will be the best QB on the field in this game.  What a joy!  This was my runner up as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Cards at Steelers – 5.5 (41):  Is last week’s offensive eruption by the Steelers sustainable?  If so, the Steelers should cruise to a win here.

Panthers at Bucs – 5 (37): This is the Dog Breath Game of the Week.  The Bucs are not a good team; the Panthers are awful.  Be thankful if you are not in a viewing area where this game is telecast.

Colts – 1 at Titans (42.5):  This game is just blah! If you like trends:

• Titans are 4-1 at home this year.
• Colts are 4-1 on the road this year.
• Titans are at home and Colts are on the road.
• Good luck with that.

Dolphins – 10 at Commanders (49):  I think both teams can score on the opposing defense.  There is no way I want to take the Dolphins on the road as a double-digit favorite, but I have no trouble seeing them engage in a track meet with the Commanders.  I’ll take this game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Broncos at Texans – 3.5 (47):  The Texans are a pleasant surprise as a team this year with a record above .500 as December starts.  CJ Stroud has been amazing.  That said, the Broncos are on a 5-game winning streak that has all but erased the memory of the 70 points they surrendered to the Dolphins earlier this year.  I think the wrong team is favored here so I am happy to take the Broncos plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Niners – 3 at Eagles (48):  This is so obviously the Game of the Week.  The spread opened the week with the Eagles as 1-point favorites but that favorite quickly shifted and the line has been steady at this number for a couple of days.  Make time on your schedule to tune into this game as the national game in the late afternoon time slot.

Browns at Rams – 3.5 (40):  Dorian Thompson-Robinson suffered a concussion last week; will he play this week?  Myles Garrett hurt his shoulder last week and was wearing a sling during the week; will he play this week?  Both teams need this game as both are playoff aspirants but there are too many question marks to make this a wagering proposition.

(Sun Nite) Chiefs – 6 at Packers (42):  The Packers have extended rest for this game having played on Thanksgiving last week.  As noted above, Jordan Love has been improving of late, but his positive showings have been against the Chargers and the Lions.  The Chiefs’ defense is better than either of those defenses, so it will be interesting to see how he does here.

(Mon Nite) Bengals at Jags – 8.5 (39):  I watched Jake Browning in his start last week at home against the Steelers and I was unimpressed.  Now the Bengals are on the road to play another tough defense.  The Jags have an “inverted record” so far in 2023:

• Jags at home are 3-3
• Jags on the road are 5-0

Nevertheless, I do not think the Bengals can hang with the Jags here; I’ll take the Jags and lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• UNLV +3 against Boise St.
• Oregon/Washington UNDER 66
• Broncos +3.5 against Texans
• Dolphins/Commanders OVER 49
• Jags – 8.5 over Bengals

And here is a Money Line Parlay just for fun:

• Jags @ minus-400
• Chargers @ minus-240
• Lions @ minus-200       $100 wager to win $166.

Finally, since I began this rant with a reference to Albert Einstein, let me close with another of his musings:

“Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the former.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………