The CFP Selection Committee has done its selecting for the CFP and the other major New Year’s Day Bowl Games. As is always the case, there are screams of outrage at the make-up of the CFP participants; I am not particularly offended by the CFP field because:
- I believe that the Committee should choose the 4 best teams today as the participants.
- I do not believe that teams “deserve a CFP slot” based purely on their records; if they did, then Liberty would be a shoo-in.
Yes, I know the selection process must be subjective until the 4 teams sort out the tournament champion on the field, but my personal interpretation of what the Committee ought to do flies in the face of something I have said repeatedly in my Football Friday rants:
- I have said that Florida St. was back in the national discussion as a top-tier team and the Committee should remember them as a top team when decision time arrived.
- Then, the Seminoles lost their starting QB and their backup QB. Yes, Florida St. managed to beat Louisville for the ACC Championship with its backup-backup QB, but please recall that no one – – as in nobody – – thought Louisville was a playoff candidate.
- A month ago, Florida St. looked like a strong candidate as a CFP selection; that was then, and this is now.
If you assume that Michigan and Washington are mortal locks for a place in the CFP, then there are two openings left this year. If you also assume – – as do I – – that Liberty University as an undefeated conference champion does not belong in the CFP field, then two “one-loss teams” will be in the field. I have reconstructed the “strength of schedule” for candidates for the two open slots. The following is a table with the won/lost records and winning percentage for the opponents of various candidates:
- Opponents of Alabama were 85-59 Win percentage = .591
- Opponents of Ohio St. were 82-62 Win percentage = .569
- Opponents of Texas were 81-63 Win percentage = .563
- Opponents of Georgia were 75-69 Win percentage = .521
- Opponents of Florida St. were 67-76 Win percentage = .469
Now, if “strength of schedule” is to be a factor in the selection process, that would put Alabama in for sure. The choice between Ohio St. and Texas is a tossup by strength of schedule measures but putting Texas in the field over Ohio St. allows two things to happen:
- First, there are 4 different conferences represented in the CFP – – AND – –
- Since Texas beat Alabama earlier, it puts the winner of that game in the CFP.
I do not know if that is the logic used by the committee members, but it is logical enough for me to forget about flying into an Internet rage this morning. I have seen all four of these teams play at least one full game this year; there is no weak sister in the field.
The other four “New Year’s Day Bowl Games” have interesting aspects that make for potentially good viewing:
- Dec 29th Cotton Bowl: Missouri/Ohio St. The Ohio St. QB just entered the transfer portal.
- Dec 30th Peach Bowl: Ole Miss/Penn St. Ole Miss is 15th nationally in Total Offense per game and Penn St. is #1 in the nation in Total Defense.
- Dec 30th Orange Bowl: Georgia/Florida St.: The early line has Georgia as a 2 TD favorite.
- Jan 1st Fiesta Bowl: Liberty/Oregon: A test of the importance of “strength of schedule”.
Possibly the least interesting of all the bowl games is the one where Minnesota (5-7 for the season) will take on Bowling Green (a team that went 5-3 in the MAC). That game will take place on Dec. 26th. My advice would be for you to use the time that the game is on to do something else that will be constructive for your life.
Possibly the most interesting of the so-called minor bowl games is the Sun Bowl which will be played on Dec 29th featuring Notre Dame and Oregon St. That game should be a nice “appetizer” for the main course that evening between Missouri and Ohio St.
The proliferation of bowl games puts a perverse twist on college football. Teams use bowl games to generate revenue for the athletic department plus it gives teams extra time for practices as they prep for the bowl game which also means extra preparation for spring practice and for next season. So, far, that does not sound “perverse” until you realize that the worst teams for this year – – the ones that might need extra practice time to be more competitive for next season – – are exactly the teams that do not get that extra practice time because they do not merit bowl invitations.
Finally, I’ll close today with these words from Mark Twain:
“There’s one sure way to find out if a man is honest: ask him; if he says yes, you know he is crooked.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………