The Wayback Machine Is Set For April 2018…

The NFL’s Exhibition Season begins this weekend and for most of the players selected in April’s NFL Draft, this will be their first “live action” in an NFL uniform.  Fanboys around the country will be watching these rookies closely and projecting future greatness on each and every one of them.  That is why fanboys do not make good coaches of GMs in the NFL.

The reality is that about 250 players were selected in the Draft about 3 months ago and about half of them will never see the field in an official NFL game.  In fact, there will be players taken in the first round of this year’s Draft who will prove to be “less than was expected” even though first round picks get more intense scrutiny from scouts and coaches than others.

The 2022 season will be the 5^th season in the league for players taken in the 2018 Draft.  For players taken in the first round, the standard contract for draftees at that level would mean that the team that drafted them would have exercised the team option for the player to be on the squad this year.  So, let us look at the players taken in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft – – in the order they were taken – – and see what happened to those good folks.

• Baker Mayfield – – He had an up and down relationship with the Browns that ended less than harmoniously.  Mayfield is now in Carolina competing for the starting job there.  Mayfield is certainly not a bust, but the Browns got little value from the overall #1 pick here
• Saquon Barkley – – He was the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2018 but was injured and missed most of the 2020 season.  Last year his numbers were down from what they were prior to the injury.  As with Mayfield above, Barkley is not a bust – – but he has not been a value pick either.
• Sam Darnold – – The Jets took him and gave up on him.  Darnold is now in Carolina competing with Baker Mayfield for the starting job there.  In 4 seasons, Darnold’s completion percentage is below 60%.  Personally, I keep waiting for Darnold to ‘break out”; maybe I am waiting for Godot?
• Denzel Ward – – The Browns got a better return with the 4^th pick than they did with the 1^st pick.  Ward has been in the league 4 years and has been selected to the Pro Bowl twice; he is a mainstay of the defense.  Excellent pick…
• Bradley Chubb – – He has been injured in two of the four seasons he has been with the Broncos.  In his two “healthy years” he recorded 12 sacks as a rookie and 7.5 sacks in 2020.  He is a good player when he avoids the injury bug.  Good pick…
• Quenton Nelson – – Offensive guards do not get much “celebrity attention”; so, you may be surprised to see that Nelson has been selected to the Pro Bowl in all four of his seasons with the Colts and he has been a first team All-Pro 3 times and a second team All-Pro 1 time.  The Colts got an excellent value with this pick.
•  Josh Allen – – No need to comment here.  Josh Allen is an excellent NFL QB.
• Roquan Smith – – As a linebacker for the Bears, he has averaged 3.5 sacks per year and 131 tackles per year.  He has been named as a second team All-Pro twice.  The problem here is that contract talks have not enhanced the player/team relationship and Smith has now requested a trade.  Excellent pick – – but lousy aftermath…
• Mike McGlinchey – – Has started every game at OTwhen he has been healthy.  Missed half of last season with injuries.  Good pick…
• Josh Rosen – –  He lasted 1 year in Arizona then was sent to Miami and then to Atlanta.  This year he is with the Browns hoping to be an understudy there.  That is not what was envisioned by the Cardinals when they took him 10^th in this Draft.  Clearly, this is the worst pick so far on this list by a mile…
• Minkah Fitzpatrick – – He was taken by the Dolphins in this Draft and then traded to the Steelers in 2019.  He has been selected for the Pro Bowl twice and was named first team All-Pro twice.  An excellent pick and I am still not sure why the Dolphins decided to trade him…
• Vita Vea – – He missed most of the 2020 season with an injury but in his other three years he has been an excellent run-stopper in the middle of the Bucs’ defense and has recorded a total of 11.5 sacks from that position.  He was selected to the Pro Bowl last year.  Excellent pick…
• Daron Payne – – A solid performer at DT he has recorded a total of 14.5 sacks for the Skins/WTFs/Commanders over 4 seasons.  He was hoping for a contract extension this year but that has not happened yet.  Good pick
• Marcus Davenport – – As a pass-rusher he has averaged 5.25 sacks per year but as a defensive end he has only recorded an average of 28 combined tackles per year.  Meh!
• Kolton Miller – – He has started 63 games out of 65 possible games on the OL for the Raiders in the last 4 seasons.  He has no awards to his credit, but he has been a reliable offensive tackle from day one.  Good pick…
• Tremaine Edmunds – – He plays inside linebacker and still has recorded 4 INTs in his career; also, he averages 116 combined tackles per season.  He has been to the Pro Bowl twice in four years.  Excellent pick…
• Derwin James – – He missed most of the 2019 season and all the 2020 season.  He has been to the Pro Bowl twice and was a first team All-Pro once.  He just needs to stay healthy…
• Jaire Alexander – – He missed most of the 2021 season with an injury but was available for most of his first three seasons.  He was named to the Pro Bowl and was as a second team All-Pro in 2020.  Good pick …
• Leighton Vander Esch – – He has missed 13 games in his career due to injuries.  He was selected for the Pro Bowl and as a second team All-Pro in his rookie year.  Good pick…
• Frank Ragnow – – Offensive lineman are often the most overlooked players on a team; offensive linemen for a team as bad as the Lions are in the NFL’s version of the Witness Protection Program.  He missed most of last season with injuries but was named to the Pro Bowl and as a second team All-Pro in 2020.  Excellent pick…
• Billy Price – – He played his first three seasons with the Bengals and then was traded to the Giants where he appeared in 15 games last  year.  Meh!
• Rashaan Evans – – From the inside-linebacker position, he has recorded 3 sacks in 4 seasons and only averaged 79 combined tackles per season.  Meh!
• Isaiah Wynn – – He missed all his rookie year; he has only been in 34 of a possible 65 games for the pats since the Draft.  Meh.
• DJ Moore – – He has played in 63 of the 65 regular season games for the Panthers since they took him in this Draft. His numbers are OK but nothing stands out.  Meh!
• Hayden Hurst – – He played two seasons with the Ravens who then traded him to the Falcons where he played the next two seasons.  The Falcons did not exercise his fifth-year option, so he was a free agent in the last offseason; he signed a 1-year contract with the Bengals in the Spring and is competing for a job there.  Meh!
• Calvin Ridley – – His first two seasons with the Falcons were good-not-great but he had a very good year in 2020 being named second team All-Pro.  Last year he was injured and only saw the field in 5 games; and while he was injured, he placed at least one bet on the Falcons in a legal sportsbook and that has him indefinitely suspended by the NFL with that suspension extending to all the 2022 season at a minimum.  Ouch!
• Rashaad Penny – – He has only carried the ball 280 times in 4 seasons with the Seahawks, so you cannot say he has been a mainstay of their offense.  Last year, he led the NFL in yards per carry by a running back averaging 6.3 yards per carry.  Meh!
• Terrell Edmunds – – He has missed only 1 game in 4 years with the Steelers.  Meh!
• Taven Bryan – – He appeared in 63 games for the Jaguars registering 5.5 sacks as a defensive tackle but only 86 combined tackles in those 63 games.  The Jaguars did not exercise their fifth-year option, so he was a free agent in the last offseason.  He signed a 1-year contract with the Browns and is competing for a job there.  Meh!
• Mike Hughes – – He had 3 ordinary seasons with the Vikings who traded him to the Chiefs for a 6^th round pick in for the 2021 season.  As a free agent last winter, he signed a 1-year contract with the Lions and is competing for a job there.  Meh!
• Sony Michel – – His first three seasons with the Pats had injury issues and he was traded to the Rams for the 2021 season.  The fifth-year option was not exercised making him a free agent after the 2021 season and he signed a 1-year deal with the Dolphins.  Meh!
• Lamar Jackson – – In his 4 years with the Ravens, he has been named to the Pro Bowl twice; he was the MVP of the league in 2019 and was also named as a first team All Pro that year.  Obviously, the Ravens exercised their fifth-year option and Jackson is scheduled to make $23M this season and is in negotiations with the Ravens for a long-term contract.  Excellent pick.

So as a message to all the fanboys who will be salivating over the real and imagined skill sets on display this weekend by rookies and draft picks, they don’t all live up to expectations.  Having said that, I know for sure that my advice here will fall mainly on deaf ears.

Finally, since I just mentioned “advice”, let me close with the definition of advice from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Advice:  the only thing in the world more unwelcome than a baby in a movie theater.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………