Month: July 2022

There is an adage that seems appropriate for today’s rant:

“Silence is the virtue of those who are not wise.”

Another way to put it this:

“It is better to keep your mouth shut and appear to be stupid than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.”

Either or both of those adages should apply to LeBron James today.  Earlier this week in a trailer for his TV show, The Shop, James questioned how he might feel about returning to the US if he were in a situation like the one Brittney Griner is in right now in a Russian jail.  Here is what James had to say:

“Over 110 days, now how could she feel like America has her back?  I would be feeling like, ‘Do I even want to go back to America?’”

Really…?

Let me just say that those words were not universally taken well by a large segment of the population and LeBron James took to Twitter about a day after that comment went public to “clarify” what he meant:

“My comments on ‘The Shop’ regarding Brittney Griner wasn’t knocking our beautiful country.  I was simply saying how she’s probably feeling emotionally along with so many other emotions, thoughts, etc inside that cage she’s been in for over 100+ days! Long story short #BringHerHome.”

Earlier this week, I said that I did not know enough about the circumstances leading up to Griner’s arrest and charges to determine if she should be a “priority case” for US diplomatic efforts to secure her release.  Since taking that position, I have not come across any additional information to make me change my stance.  If Brittney Griner is innocent and being held hostage, then the US should do whatever it can to secure her release; if that is not the case then the country’s diplomatic efforts to free her might not be front and center at the moment.

LeBron James surely changed the tone of his remarks over a short period of time even though he also had no new information regarding how Brittney Griner came to be in her circumstances.  And that “reversal of field” tells me two things about LeBron James and his episodic “pronouncements”.

First, not all his “pronouncements” are representative of his core beliefs.  After all, it took only a bit of “blowback” from folks who heard about his original statement here for a stunning reversal.  One of the two positions taken here is not one of his core beliefs; I have no idea which one is genuine – – if indeed either one is genuine.  As I have declared here many times, I do not read minds, so LeBron James’ core values and beliefs are not open to me.

The second thing this “reversal of field” tells me about LeBron James requires a bit more explanation.

• Perhaps the time has come for people to ignore what LeBron James says he thinks about subjects other than subjects he clearly knows something about.

Please do not take that to mean that LeBron James’ free expression should be curtailed in any way.  He is – as he ought to be – free and clear to express his thoughts on anything.  What I am saying is that maybe people should listen to what he says and then decide if he is someone whose commentary is worthy of parsing and analysis.  And when that decision comes out in the negative, maybe everyone should let it rest and fester in the marketplace of ideas.

Moreover, I am not suggesting that LeBron James “stay in his lane” so to speak.  What I mean here is that there are issues about which James’ opinions are simply no more important than my opinions on crocheting – – and the only thing I know about crocheting is that it involves yarn.  If I opine on anything related to crocheting, you should ignore me because I know so little about the subject that it makes no sense for you to try to “educate me” or to reprove me.  I would not be worth the time and energy in that case.  I submit that was – and remains – the case with LeBron James depth of insight into Brittney Griner’s circumstance.

Yes, his second “position” makes sense; she is a human being who is in a very precarious situation; she could face a 10-year prison sentence in a Russian jail.  It is natural to feel compassion for another person in that situation and to align oneself with those who hope to “#BringHerHome”.  But there is no content to that second position that makes the original expression meaningful.

Staying with basketball – obliquely – I read a report that the New Orleans Pelicans have offered Zion Williamson a 5-year “rookie max” contract worth $231M guaranteed.  Zion Williamson is a great player and someone who can easily be a “face of the franchise”.  However, he missed all of the 2021/22 season; he missed 21 games in the 2020/21 season, and he missed 48 games in the 2019/20 season due to injuries.  [Aside:  Recall that in his one year at Duke, he also missed significant time due to injury.]  The Pelicans are taking a leap of faith here that Williamson will be able to take the floor for a much larger percentage of their games in the next 5 years as compared to the last 3 years.  In the last three seasons, Williamson has played in 85 games and has not played in 141 games; that means he was only on the floor 38% of the time.

Finally, I will close today with an observation by someone who is familiar with conditions in Russian prisons, Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn:

“It is not because the truth is too difficult to see that we make mistakes … we make mistakes because the easiest and most comfortable course for us is to seek insight where it accords with our emotions – especially selfish ones.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Happy Bastille Day.  In France, they will celebrate with what is considered to be the oldest and largest military parade in Europe.  Here in Curmudgeon Central, I will celebrate by recounting some good news and some potentially good news – – maybe – – about baseball…

Don’t look now, but the Baltimore Orioles have won 10 straight games and as of this morning the team is a game over .500 in the middle of July.  I certainly did not see that coming – – and I suspect that even the team brass had such a status filed under “Wild Dreams for 2022”.  This is an extremely young team, and they are playing with enthusiasm; when they take the field or come to the plate, they look as though they are really enjoying what they are doing.  They look like they are playing a game and not going through the motions of a person doing a job.

The Orioles are only 3 games behind in the race for the last wild card slot in the AL.  This would be an incredible Cinderella story should they stay that close to contention over the next couple of months; but for now, this team is fun to watch and is a team that should be enjoyed for what they are doing now.

That’s some good news; now for some not so good news that might be better news in the future.  MLB has a few endemic problems that need addressing:

• Pace of play is too slow.
• Over-reliance on analytics is hurting the game – – particularly the use of “The Shift”.
• The establishment of the “Universal DH” has not brought unbridled excitement to the games in 2022.
• Creation of playground scenarios like “ghost runners on second base” has not been particularly interesting.
• Umpiring – particularly home plate umpiring – is an embarrassment.

So, what are the baseball mavens going to do about any or all of these “issues”?  Maybe there are rays of hope here – – and if not, there will come a time when fans might just think about Bastille Day and storm the barricades of MLB HQS.

First, the pace of play problem is clear and so are potential cures.  The pitch clock used in minor league games works; if you do not believe that, please take yourself to a minor league game and try not to focus on the lower level of talent on display but focus on the action presented to you.  The game is faster and more entertaining; pitchers do not get the ball back from the catcher and then take a stroll around the mound pondering the origins of the universe; batters do not step out of the batter’s box on every pitch to adjust their gloves even if they took the previous pitch.  The games move; there is action; it is far more dynamic than a game in MLB.

• MLB needs a pitch clock and restrictions that are enforced on batters leaving the batter’s box.

The over-reliance on analytics is hurting MLB.  Seriously now, are you better entertained listening to or watching a baseball game when you are informed about a player’s WAR or a pitcher’s spin rate or the exit velocity of a line drive?  I certainly am not.  Moreover, the most successful achievement of baseball analytics – – “The Shift” – – is a major factor in the number of strikeouts in the game today.  When over-shifted defenders make “singles hitting” much less likely, many batters adjust their swings to hit the ball over the defense and out of the park.  That has always been – and continues to be – a boom or bust hitting strategy.

• MLB will experiment with a new “anti-Shift” rule in the low minor leagues starting now.  [Hat tip to Jayson Stark here]
  

Minor league games have made teams put two players on either side of second base for this season.  That has not had much of an effect on “hitting against The Shift”, because defenders line up inches to the required side of second base and then slide to the other side as soon as the pitch is released.  Nice try, MLB…

The new experiment will put two lines on the infield; it will create an area of the infield that looks like a slice of pizza.  Picture that the line from first to second base is extended to the outfield grass and the same thing happens to the line from third base to second base.  Under the experimental rule, no defensive player may be in that excluded area and all infield defenders must be on the dirt when the pitch is thrown.

This is an interesting experiment, but is this “cure” a cockamamie creation that will end up as welcome as the infamous “ghost runner on second base” to start extra innings?  And just for the record:

• MLB needs to get rid of that “ghost runner” nonsense ASAP.

I am on record for decades that I do not like the DH and after watching some NL games this year where they have adopted the DH, I have to say that I am not blown away by the dynamism those hitters bring to the game.  Yes, they hit better than pitchers – – but they are not lighting it up on a nightly basis.  I do observe, however, that DH players do strike out an awful lot.

And finally, let me talk about umpiring – – particularly home plate umpiring.  I have not been a fan of “robo-umps” and if you think electronic sign-stealing was bad, wait until you learn about some team adjusting the “robo-ump’s” strike zone from half inning to half inning.  And even with all that negative thinking in place, I have to say that every time I watch Angel Hernandez behind the plate, I am forced to believe that “robo-umps” are a necessity.  I am not picking on Hernandez here; he is reliably the worst of the home plate umpires in terms of calling balls and strikes relative to a home plate that fixed in place on the field, but other umpires are not paragons in this endeavor.  If there are two umpires that have the same strike zone game-to-game, I think I would like to see video evidence of that.  I never thought I would get to this point, but:

• MLB needs seriously to consider using electronics to call balls and strikes.

Baseball is a great game to see in person.  However, the future of baseball as a major sport in the US demands that it be an entertaining TV or streaming property.  That is where the big money will come from to support paying players guaranteed salaries of $400M or more; there is not enough revenue that will come from the live gate to make that sort of thing viable.  And on TV, baseball does not appeal to a young audience in 2022; the fanbase is aging – and dying off – and it is not being replenished with viewers that create TV ratings.  The real warning sign seems to be ignored; in addition to low TV ratings, average attendance in the parks is also dropping.  I am not trying to be Chicken Little here; attendance is not dropping in a free-fall, but it has been eroding slowly for the last 5 years or so.  The game must adapt, but the game is adapting painfully slowly.

Finally, in honor of Bastille Day, let me close with this definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“France:  A country that inspires an almost pathological contempt in Americans who, much to their dismay, cannot eat all the freaking Brie they want and still not gain any weight.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

On the former ESPN Radio morning show, Mike and Mike in the Morning, Mike Greenburg would often proclaim that they were “back and better than ever”.   Well, I’m back and I’m whatever I was before, and I am what I am now.  Would that I could proclaim what Mike and Mike did for years upon years…

I want to focus this morning with commentary on Kevin Durant’s request to be traded from the Brooklyn Nets.  I want to focus on this because it is a tad unusual even in the world of the NBA where star players rule the roost.  And because the situation is a “tad unusual,” I think the Nets ought to  tell Kevin Durant to “go fly a kite” – – or whatever the current jargon of the day is its equivalent.  Let me explain…

Please forget all the details of “annual salary” and “likely incentives” to be earned under Kevin Durant’s existing contract.  The only important figure in the deal that would be important to me if I were the owner, or the GM for the Nets is this one:

• The current contract is in force through the end of the 2025/26 season and Kevin Durant does not become an unrestricted free agent until the summer of 2026.

Kevin Durant says he wants to play somewhere other than for the Brooklyn Nets.  Everyone has freedom of expression; everyone has a fundamental right to express what might make them best aligned to “pursue happiness” as is postulated as a Divinely granted right in the Declaration of Independence.  The burr under the saddle here is that humongous contract that is in effect between the Nets and Durant from now through 2026 when he is scheduled to collect about $190M for playing basketball in a Brooklyn Nets uniform.  Now, with four years to run on that guaranteed contract, Kevin Durant wants out.  And if I am the owner or the GM for the Nets, I tell him – figuratively and ever so diplomatically – to go suck eggs.

If Kevin Durant wants to play NBA basketball – – and “chase rings” or to “ polish his legacy”, he has to do that in a Brooklyn Nets uniform – – unless the Nets decide to trade him.  He can demand a trade; he can arrange a trade with compensation to the Nets for his services; but none of that means a pinch of pigeon poop if I am the owner/GM of the Nets.  If I am in that position, here is my stance:

• I will only trade you to a team when/if I get an offer that I – and no one else – considers beneficial to the Brooklyn Nets.
• That means I – and not you – might get to pick the team  you will play for next.
• That means you need to waive your “no trade clause” – – and if you do not, I will limit your choices to two things.  Play for the Nets or sit out and play for no one in the NBA.
• Only by incredible fortuitousness will you get to play for a team of  your choosing – – because I am not trading  you to anyone unless I get what I think is a worthwhile return.  And as soon as you even hint that you want to play for any  other team in the league, my price for a deal with that team just went up by a factor of two.

Why might an owner even try to think about such a harsh interaction with the empowered players in the NBA?  Here’s why:

• Kevin Durant is locked in for four seasons.  I as an owner control his life and his desires for that period of time.  He cannot threaten me to become a free agent and leave me with “nothing in return” the next three seasons.

The deal here is simple; it has three possible ways to play our:

1. Play for the Nets; collect the annual salary that we agreed upon in previous negotiations.
2. Waive your no trade clause such that the team can search to find a deal that is acceptable to the team for your services.  If that is unacceptable because you only want to play for certain other teams – – tough bunny.  The Nets own your NBA services until 2026; you may be unhappy with that fact – – but it does not negate the fact that it is a fact.
3. Withhold your services from the NBA and the Nets and go play in the Uzbekistani League.  My only caveat to you there is to be sure you don’t’ suffer a significant injury there that might require immediate and cutting-edge medical treatment because you might find yourself treated with a concoction of bats’ wings and spirits of hartshorn.

NBA superstars – – and Kevin Durant is one of them – – have gotten used to the idea that they call the shots on where they will play and where they will not play.  But that works for guys on short term deals where the team is in danger of pissing off the player and then having them sign elsewhere with no recompense to the original team.  Kevin Durant is in no position to pull such a stunt; if anyone in this saga is in a position to “play hardball” it is the Nets’ owner or the Nets’ GM.  The message is clear and stark:

• If you don’t want to play for the Nets – – and therefore in the NBA – – I hope you enjoy your time in cities like Samarkand, Tashkent and Andijan.
• And if you think that is going to enhance whatever you might have tried to create as an “NBA legacy”, Buona Fortuna!

Do I expect the Nets’ ownership – – or any other NBA owner – – to play hardball with star players in this sort of way?  Hell, NO!  But they ought to consider it – – especially when they have 4 years of contract commitment on their side.

Finally, today has been about an NBA situation so let me close with this item from Dwight Perry in the Seattle times regarding the comments of another NBA player about his “fame”:

“Pelicans forward Larry Nance Jr., via Twitter, when asked if he is the most famous person from Richfield, Ohio’s Revere High School: ‘You would think so … but, I’m not sure what I’d have to do to pass Jeffery Dahmer.’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I am about to take a leap of faith.  At best, I will land on semi-solid footing and only a significant minority of the people will think poorly of me.  At worst, I will land in quicksand and be swallowed up in social contempt.  I am going to say what I think about the Brittney Griner situation.

Griner was arrested in Russia in February 2022 when authorities there say she was detected carrying cannabis-related materials in vaping pods at an airport in Russia.  Maybe she was; maybe she wasn’t and maybe whatever was detected was planted on her.  I do not know the answer to that – – and neither do any of her activist advocates here in the US.  Griner has been in a Russian jail with her case pending since February and now there are calls for President Biden to make it his priority to bring Brittney Griner home ASAP.  There are demonstrations in support of that action and there are letters signed by anyone and everyone to the President urging him to act.

Now, if I KNEW FOR CERTAIN that whatever was found in Brittney Griner’s luggage at that airport was planted on her, then I can get behind all those activist activities 100%.  But I do not know that.  And because I do not know that, I have to think about this situation in what are surely unpopular terms; suppose those bad, bad Russian authorities actually discovered someone breaking Russian law.

• Griner has been playing for a Russian professional women’s basketball team since 2015 during the WNBA offseasons.
• After multiple years of experience dealing with Russia and Russian authorities, she had to know that whatever was allegedly found in her luggage was illegal stuff there.
• After multiple years of experience dealing with Russia and Russian authorities, she had to know that running afoul of those authorities on criminal charges was a horrendously stupid thing to do.

And yet, here we are…

Griner pleaded guilty to her charges earlier this week – – but that does not really answer the question of “real charges” or “trumped up charges” by the Russian authorities.  Legal folks who know much more about Russian jurisprudence than I will ever know say that a guilty plea with an explanation to the court as to how/why this happened is a better strategy that a not-guilty plea showing no remorse because the probability of getting a not-guilty verdict is vanishingly small.

So, we now have two situations facing us:

1. Griner’s crime was nothing more than being in the wrong place at the wrong time as tensions between Russia and the US boiled over in February 2022; and she is, therefore, worthy of diplomatic efforts to secure her release and her return to safety.
2. Griner was indeed carrying contraband in that airport and as such is not much smarter than a box of hammers given what she should have known about Russian authorities and Russian jurisprudence after years of living/working there.

I said above that I do not know which of those situations obtains here – – but neither do all the activists and advocates for Brittney Griner.  And if Situation #2 above is  the correct one, then Brittney Griner does not deserve any more Presidential attention than any other US citizen detained abroad who is guilty of breaking whatever law has landed them in a foreign jail for however long it is.  The fact that Britney Griner is an outstanding women’s basketball player is irrelevant here – – if in fact she broke Russian law on Russian soil.  I can feel sorry for her, but I cannot become invested in “bringing her home” over and above “bringing Joe Flabeetz home” from whatever penitentiary conditions poor ol’ Joe lives under.

Some folks have opined that Brittney Griner is in the situation she is in due to the fundamental sexism of US sports.  The line of “reasoning” that leads to that conclusion is that Griner needed to play all that time for a Russian pro team because she – – and her comrades in arms in the WNBA – – could not make a living wage under the patriarchy of US pro sports.  And that, ladies and gentlemen is pure and unadulterated Balderdash.  Griner’s current contract with the Phoenix Mercury calls for her to make $221K; that is walking around money for many NBA stars to be sure, but it is also not something that would put Brittney Griner and her wife on welfare here in the US.  [Aside:  Granted, that was not the case in 2015 when Griner began playing in Russia; WNBA salaries then were not nearly so large.]

Griner was not in Russia because she had to be to keep the wolf from the door.  Griner was not in Russia because the male-dominated ne’er-do-wells that run US pro sports have oppressed her.  Grier was in Russia because:

• She had a lucrative contract to play for her Russian team during the WNBA offseason and she could earn lots and lots more money doing that than she could make doing anything else here in US during the WNBA offseason.

WNBA salaries represent what the players’ union was able to negotiate in the last CBA given the fact that many teams only survive due to the sponsorship of the NBA team in the same city/area and the fact that WNBA media rights command only pennies on the dollar as compared to NBA media rights.  And whether anyone wishes to believe it, the reason that the WNBA media rights sell on the cheap is that most US sports fans do not enjoy watching WNBA games on TV and the ratings generally stink.

Cue the folks who are spring-loaded to deny any such reality in the name of gender-equity.  What I have said above has nothing to do with the abilities of women professional basketball players and it has nothing to do with misogyny or sexism.  What it has to do with is this:

• More US sports fans like and prefer to watch men’s basketball than do fans of women’s basketball.  That propensity manifests itself in big differences in TV ratings and TV ratings drive the amount of money that broadcasters are willing to play for media rights.
• It may feel good to cry “sexism” and “patriarchy” and all that stuff – – but the driver here is economics.
• Brittney Griner would be making $221K this year playing for the Phoenix Mercury; Russell Westbrook will make $47.5M this year playing for the LA Lakers – – or maybe someone else – – and that disparity is based on the revenue stream differences between the WNBA and the NBA.

Do I want Brittney Griner to come home safe and sound?  Of course I do – – but not at any cost.  And not at much of a cost at all if indeed she knew what she was doing was against the law in Russia and then did it anyhow.  You will notice that her vocal and avid advocates never seem to address that question and in fact use deflection verbiage and slogans to label this situation as an unalloyed act of evil against Brittney Griner.

Let me be kind here and say those advocates steer clear of that issue because they – like I – do not know what ground truth in this matter is.  Let me suggest, however, that determining the ground truth here is fundamentally important as one tries to develop any means under which Brittney Griner gets to come home any time soon.  I know that would be tough sledding to get to that ground truth, but until I know what really happened at that Russian airport in February, I have to say that I am sorry for the condition she finds herself in but not to the extent that I would move Heaven and Earth to bring her home.

I think I will be ducking for cover at about this point…

Since this whole matter began with an episode of airport security, let me close today with this observation by comedian, Jay Leno:

“People want to say there isn’t racial profiling at the airport, but let’s be honest.  If your first name is Mohammed, and you last name isn’t Ali, leave a little extra time.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The Browns traded Baker Mayfield to the Panthers yesterday; the fact that it happened on the day I speculated on Mayfield’s future is totally coincidental.  The fact that the trade went down prior to any publicly announced steps in the resolution of Deshaun Watson’s disciplinary hearing makes me wonder if the Browns think Watson’s suspension will be minimal or non-existent.  With Mayfield out of the picture, the Browns QB situation is:

1. Deshaun Watson – – who knows when?
2. Jacoby Brisset – – capable back-up QB; not sure he is a 17-game/year QB
3. Joshua Dobbs – – tell the running backs to get set for lots of action

Rather than speculate on what happens to Watson and the Browns, let me look at the trade itself.  The Panthers acquire Mayfield and will pay only half of his guaranteed salary of $18.9M.  That acquisition improves the Panthers at the QB position, but do not get carried away on a wave of euphoria, the Panthers are still not a good football team.  So, what did the Panthers have to give up in trade to make that improvement?

• The Browns received a conditional 5^th round pick in 2024 – – that might become a 4^th round pick based on the amount pf playing time Mayfield has in Carolina.
• And the Browns are off the hook for half of Mayfield’s salary in 2022.

Basically, the Panthers gave up a bag of beans to acquire Mayfield.  Yes, I know that Stefon Diggs and George Kittle were 5^th round picks; I still maintain that the Panthers got Mayfield for next-to-nothing.

Now the decision-making falls to the Panthers.  Mayfield will be an unrestricted free agent in February 2023.  Let the speculation on that front begin…

• [Aside:  Do not let the Browns’ organization off the hook here too easily.  They spent an overall #1 pick on Mayfield, picked up his expensive 5^th year option and then turned him into a disgruntled employee.  That almost sounds like a case study at Harvard Business School.]

Over the weekend, the USFL held its championship game in Canton, OH; the Birmingham Stallions beat the Philadelphia Stars in that game.  Forget who won or lost that game, here is the important takeaway:

• USFL 2.0 – a professional Spring football league in the US – began and finished its first season of operation intact and the announcement by the league and FOX which owns the league is that it will be back in 2023.
• The last professional Spring football league in the US to achieve those milestones was XFL 1.0 back in 2001.

I continue to try to wean my self away from thinking about college football realignment and conference expansion, but my mind does not allow me to drop it completely.  And one of the ways that my mind works is to take a situation and look at it “backwards” to see how things appear from that vantage point.  So, all the talk about college football changes seems to involve how things are getting bigger – and better? – over the near and mid-term.  Well, suppose it gets smaller?

I believe there are 130 colleges that compete in Division 1-A football.  Once the program movement is completed the Big-10, the SEC and the ACC will hold a minimum of 47 of those schools – more than a third of teams.  The folks paying to televise those games will be paying top dollar to those 3 conferences – not in equal shares to be sure – because they will have the reliably good teams to put on the air against one another.  So, there will be continued pressure on the conferences to accrete “the best teams”.

At the same time, broadcast rights money for the lesser conferences will likely shrink.  It would be “ratings suicide” for a network to pay good money to the Sun Belt Conference to put national game on TV up against games from both the Big-10 and the SEC; the simple fact is that a game involving Old Dominion and Troy is not going to attract eyeballs against that competition.  Nonetheless, it costs real money for a school to maintain a Division 1-A team and that makes me wonder:

• Might some of the schools now in Division 1-A opt to step down a notch and compete in Division 1-AA – – or even Division 2?

I am not predicting this will happen, but it is an outcome that I have not seen fleshed out much in general commentary.  And if that sort of movement begins to happen, might there be pressure on the conferences to continue to strengthen themselves by “ejecting” some of its traditional doormats to bring in a new team that might be more competitive.  If that sort of behavior were to become commonplace, schools like Rutgers and Vandy might find their membership in an “elite conference” less than stable.

OK, I just upped the dosage on my meds; I can move on – – for now…

A quick look at the MLB standings this morning demonstrates the value of pitching and defense.  The Rays are in second place in the AL East despite an anemic offense.  The Rays have scored fewer runs than any team in that division including the Orioles.  However, the Rays have also allowed only 315 runs in 82 games (3.8 runs per game).  Only 3 teams in MLB have allowed fewer runs for the season than the Rays.  Yes, home runs and offense are important, but so to are pitching and defense…

Finally, here is an observation from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times:

“Outback Steakhouse has ended its 26-year sponsorship deal of the Outback Bowl.

“‘Gentlemen, start your Poulan Weed-Eaters!’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I will not focus on college football realignment today…

I will not focus on college football realignment today…

I spent the last two days saying what I know and what I think; now it is time for me to shut up and let stuff happen before spouting off again.  So, let me turn to another sports saga that has been around for a long time but seems to be coming to a head about now.  I refer here to the Deshaun Watson epic.  Here is a quick reset:

• Two dozen or so female massage therapists have accused Watson of sexual harassment/assault.  The specifics of their allegations are cringeworthy.
• Two grand juries heard the evidence presented and opted not to levy any criminal charges in these matters.
• Watson settled 20 of the civil complaints against him.
• At least 4 other civil complaints are active and could theoretically go to trial.
• The NFL process for determining if Watson should be suspended under the league’s “Personal Conduct Policy” is underway.  An arbiter hired by both the league and the NFLPA has heard the arguments and will issue a ruling sometime soon.
• The NFL wants a stiff penalty; the union wants “time served”.  No surprise there…

There is a fundamental “football question” involved in this matter that devolves into two “football questions” rather quickly.

• Question 1:  When can the Cleveland Browns expect to have Deshaun Watson available to play QB?
• Question 2:  What can/will the Browns do with Baker Mayfield who is under contract with the Browns for 2022 (at $18.9M for the year) but who will be an unrestricted free agent once the 2022 season is over?

The answer to Question 1 will come out of the ongoing Personal Conduct Policy hearings; even if there is an appeal of the ruling there should be an answer sometime this month; there is an element of predictability here regarding timing.  The answer to Question 2 is far less bounded and there are lots of twists and turns that could come into play as the Browns seek an answer to Question 2.  So, let me try to follow a couple of possible pathways…

• Scenario 1:  Watson receives no suspension; his penalty is “time served” and he reports to training camp on time and ready to go.  Mayfield was not happy to know that Watson would be replacing him as far back as when the Browns traded for him; Mayfield surely will not be a happy camper dealing with Watson as a teammate who took his job away from him.  So, do the Browns keep Mayfield as a very capable back-up or do they trade him to get something in return (remember he will be an unrestricted free agent after 2022) and/or to remove a “distraction” from the locker room?  In this case, I think the Browns find a trade partner and get rid of Baker Mayfield.
• Scenario 2:  Watson is suspended indefinitely and all the signaling says that the NFL will not reinstate him any time before the start of training camp in the summer of 2023.  In this case, the Browns would likely choose to keep a disgruntled Mayfield on the roster and have him play through his disgruntlement.  Mayfield would be motivated to do well to increase his value as a free agent come February 2023; so, this would be a “Grin and Bear It Season” in the Mayfield household.  The downside for the Browns is that they will get nothing but a compensatory draft pick for Mayfield when he surely signs elsewhere next season.
• Scenario 3:  Watson gets suspended for a significant part of – but not the entirety of – the 2022 season.  This is the tricky one for the Browns.  They have Watson signed for the future and their relationship with Mayfield is ruptured at best.  Do they trade him for assets that will help the Watson-led team down the road or do they “go for it” in 2022?  I think the Browns will opt for a trade in this scenario and acquire draft assets for future teams with Watson as the QB.

So, where might they find a team that wants Baker Mayfield?  I can think of 5 teams who could use a serviceable QB who is only 27 years old:

1. Falcons:  The team is early-on in a rebuilding process; currently Marcus Mariota is the starting QB.  If the choice is Mariota or Mayfield going forward once the rebuild has borne fruit, I would take Mayfield.
2. Lions:  Jared Goff is signed through the 2024 season but there is a potential “out” of his big contract at the end of 2022.  I think Mayfield is an improvement over Goff.
3. Panthers:  I do not hate on Sam Darnold or PJ Walker nearly as much as other commentators do, but Mayfield is an upgrade over either one.
4. Seahawks:  Reports say that Geno Smith is leading Drew Lock in the race to determine the starting QB in Seattle.  Need I say much more …?
5. Texans:  The Texans need just about everything.  If Mayfield winds up there it would make for the moral equivalent of a Watson for Mayfield “trade” and that could be an interesting storyline – – if nothing else.

I did not focus on college football realignment today …

I did not focus on college football realignment today …

Finally, let me close today with a seasonally relevant comment by humorist Brad Dickson:

“Joey Chestnut needs to apologize to his colon.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The potential fallout from the Big-10 annexation of USC and UCLA continues to be front and center in my mind.  Sometime down the road, someone will write a book about the evolution of college football from the 1960s through the 2020s and that someone will put all of this into perspective.  I am not that person – – but I hope to be around to read that book.

It seems to me that what will remain of the PAC-12 and what will remain of the Big-12 will need to consolidate.  When Texas and Oklahoma leave the Big-12, there will be 10 teams left; when USC and UCLA leave the PAC-12, there will be 10 teams left.  It certainly seems to me that some sort of amalgamation needs to happen there, but it does not make a ton of sense to me for the two “remnants” to merge and form a 20-team conference that extends from Morgantown, WV to Seattle, WA.

As things stand now, the PAC-12 “remnants” are a bit higher on the food chain than are the Big-12 “remnants”, but that could change immediately if the 4 teams left in the PAC-12 South – – Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah – – decide to hook up with the Big-12 “remnants”.  I am not saying such a move is going to happen; but if it does, the 6 teams in the PAC-12 North will be in dire straits.  They will be too small to have any impact in the new world of college football and they would likely have to take whatever terms are offered to them to join one of the remaining conferences.  They could be forced to join the Mountain West Conference; I doubt that is what Phil Knight envisioned for the Oregon Ducks when he became that school’s chief philanthropist.

I think Notre Dame is a pivotal player as of now.  They play an ACC football schedule, but Notre Dame is not a full-fledged ACC member.  I think – – I could be very wrong here – – such a status should allow Notre Dame to join either the Big-10 or the SEC based on which conference gives them the better deal.  About 40 years ago, Tony Kornheiser used to call Notre Dame, “The University of Football in North America”; that stature is no more, but Notre Dame would still be a prize catch for a football conference.  As I said yesterday, the question today is how strongly Notre Dame will cling to its independent status that has been so important to the school over its history.

If Notre Dame bolts the ACC to either the Big-10 or the SEC, that would give either conference an odd number of schools and that mathematical inconvenience will almost certainly spur more expansion by the conference with the odd number – – and by the conference still at 16 teams either in response to the movement of Notre Dame or as a means to secure the “best of the rest” out there.

College football has changed a lot over my lifetime.  A college football game was the first sporting event that I saw live and in person; that was more than 70 years ago.  I do not want to be the old codger telling youngsters to get the Hell off my lawn, but I am not so sure that all the changes have been for the better.  College football seems to be morphing into minor league professional football.  Players are getting paid; they can move around at will; the identification between the guy wearing the uniform and the uniform itself no longer has any “personality”; it is simply a transactional event.  That situation is the logical extension of the fact that college football is a multi-billion-dollar enterprise.  I am not convinced that this is either a utopian or dystopian future, but it is what college football is going to be down the road.  There is one completely positive outcome in college football’s future:

• We will not have to hear anyone from NCAA HQs spout platitudes about “student athletes” on the gridiron.

Please note that I still have not said anything about how the College Football Playoff affects all of this.  The reason for that status is that I really have not sorted out if that is part of the driving force for these annexations or if it is an entity that will have to be nimble enough to adapt to them.  I am pretty confident about the following assertion.  As of now – and particularly after the transfers of Texas, Oklahoma, USC and UCLA are in effect – – there will be three people who will set the course for the evolution of college football.  They are:

• The SEC Commissioner – – currently Greg Sankey
• The Big-10 Commissioner – – currently Kevin Warren
• The CFP President – – currently Bill Hancock

If those three men – – and any of their successors of any gender – – agree on something related to college football, it is going to happen.  If they maintain any sort of unanimity of vision for the game and the economics of the game, that is where things will go.  The NCAA will be totally irrelevant to college football in just a few years; this troika will replace it de facto but not de jure.

The CFP pays money to conferences based on the number of conference teams that play in the CFP and the so-called New Year’s 6 Bowl Games.  Conferences get an “appearance fee” and then the conferences split TV revenue based on a formula that is way to complicated for me to put here – – and frankly way too complicated for me to understand completely.  However, the appearance fees are simple to understand:

• The conferences of the 4 schools in the CFP get $6M per school.  [Aside:  the two teams advancing to the national championship game do not get an additional “appearance fee”, but they do get their expenses for travel to the game venue reimbursed from CFP funds.]
• The conferences of the schools that play in the New Year’s 6 Bowl games get $4M for each school.

The CFP had determined that it would not expand beyond 4 teams until the late 20s at the earliest.  Now with the emergence of two dominant football conferences, it is fair to ask if that decision will stand.  The history of “conference diversity” in the CFP is interesting.  The CFP has been in existence since the 2014/15 season:

• In the first 3 CFP tournaments, four different conferences participated.
• In 2017/18, there were two SEC schools
• In the next 3 CFP tournaments, either four different conferences  or three different conferences plus independent Notre Dame participated.
• Last year, there were two SEC schools.

How long until the CFP becomes a tournament only involving teams from the SEC and the Big-10?  And because of the complexity of the TV revenue calculations for the New Year’s 6 Bowl Games, the Selection Committee is motivated to put “brand names” on the air for people to tune in to see.  How long until the New Year’s 6 games become dominated by the two mega-conferences?

That is too much for my cerebellum to process at this point, so I’ll just sit back and wait for more data to roll in – – and hope that the new data clarify things instead of adding to the confusion.

Finally, let me close today with some observations on “confusion” from others who are wiser than I:

“Willingness to change is a strength, even if it means plunging part of the company into total confusion for a while,”  [Jack Welch]

And …

“Confusion is a word we have invented for an order which is not understood.”  [Henry Miller]

And …

“The interval between the decay of the old and the formation and the establishment of the new constitutes a period of transition which must always necessarily be one of uncertainty, confusion, error and wild and fierce fanaticism.”  [Senator and Vice-President John C. Calhoun]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Happy Fourth of July everyone…

Last Friday, THE breaking story in the sports world was the announcement that USC and UCLA would be leaving the PAC-12 to join the Big-10.  I received a couple of emails from readers expressing surprise that I did not mention that news in Friday’s rant.  My answer to both readers went along these lines:

• I did not write about it because I do not know what I think about it yet.  Give me the weekend to try to digest all this.

Well, the weekend is history, and I am still not fully clear about all the consequences of this announcement except for some basic stuff.  I am convinced that these four things are true:

1. This is all about money and USC/UCLA have done the calculation that it is worth it to them to join the Big-10 for the revenue sports.
2. The Big-10 is thrilled to have a “home team” in the Los Angeles TV market.
3. This Big-10 expansion is a response to the earlier announcement of the SEC’s expansion by admitting Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC.
4. One of the seven teams currently in the Big-10 West will necessarily be transferred to the Big-10 East.  [Aside:  If it were my decision, I would flip a coin between Wisconsin and Purdue.]

There are some other pretty obvious fallouts from this decision:

• Some non-revenue sports at USC and UCLA will not be part of the Big-10.  Beach volleyball is one example; the current Big-10 schools do not play beach volleyball; USC and UCLA do.  [Aside:  If you have ever been to Penn State or Michigan or Ohio State such that you could simply wander around the campus on a football Saturday, you will probably realize why those schools do not play beach volleyball.]
• The Rose Bowl Game has probably lost some of its stature for the near future.  Suppose for a moment that USC or UCLA wins the Big-10 Championship in its first year in the conference.  The Rose Bowl has a contract pitting the Big-10 champ against the PAC-12 champ.  So, the Rose Bowl game would look like an “ordinary Pac-12 midseason game” – – at least until memories of those contests fade.
• The Big-10 – for most of its existence – was a regional conference centered around the upper Midwest; all the schools were relatively proximal to one another.  Then the Big-10 inched east to admit Penn State and then did a small western slide-step to acquire Nebraska.  Following a blatant attempt to get more following in the major metro areas of the east like NYC, Maryland and Rutgers were invited to join.  Now, the Big-10 cannot even pretend to have a geographical identity; the distance between Los Angeles CA and New Brunswick, NJ is 2,439 miles.

When this transfer – along with the Texas/Oklahoma transfer are completed, there will be three dominant forces shaping college football.  Assuming they do not get mired in internecine squabbles, they will determine all the important matters that relate to college football.  Those three forces are:

1. The expanded SEC
2. The expanded Big-10
3. The CFP

The PAC-12 and the Big-12 will suffer the loss of their two most glamorous football programs.  Surely both conferences will seek to add teams, but the pickings will be slim.  As of today, the only “prestigious football brands” not to be controlled by the Big-10 and the SEC all reside in the ACC:

• Clemson
• Florida State
• Miami
• Notre Dame

So as a strategic question, do those schools jump to one of the new “Big Boy Conferences” or does the ACC try to get itself the best of what is available out there to expand to 16 teams while holding on to those 4 schools?  And what kind of additions might the PAC-12 make without becoming another geographic hodgepodge.  Boise State and Air Force are known entities and are relatively near the center of gravity of the PAC-12 – – but even if those two schools signed up, the PAC-12 would still be 4 teams smaller than the newly expanded SEC and Big 10.  I do not think that the ACC or the Big-12 or the PAC-12 have a lot of schools to add that bring with them some sort of history/prestige:

• Cincy has been very good for the last two seasons.
• UCF was really good for a couple of years – – same with USF
• SMU was a “big time program” about 35 years ago
• San Diego St. and Fresno St. are OK programs

Those are the biggest fish in the small pond of “conferences not part of the current Power 5”; and – putting it politely – none of them moves the needle even a little bit.

For me, right now, the most important question to consider is this:

• Will the Big-10 and the SEC stand pat with 16 teams each or will either one or both expand again? 

I think 16-team conferences are plenty big enough – – but there are motivations to grow yet bigger.  For example:

• Might the Big-10 want to have a third or fourth team on the West Coast so that every road game for USC and UCLA does not require a time zone change or three?
• The SEC has remained geographically regional to date, but it could hold onto that status and still acquire Clemson, Florida State and Miami.
• Notre Dame has always valued its independence; will that status still be as valuable to the school in 2025 as it has been for the last 50 years?

Moreover, do not dismiss the reality of ongoing intrigues that even the college football insiders know nothing about.  Consider:

• When the SEC “poached” Texas and Oklahoma, the Big-10, the ACC and the PAC-12 formed what they called “The Alliance” to prevent SEC hegemony over college football.
• That happened just about 1 year ago – – and now the Big-10 has “poached” the two biggest football programs from one of its alleged “Allies”.

The movement is not over; the musical chairs game will continue.  And please notice that I have not even begun to weave the other power player – – the CFP – – into the situation.  The reason for that is simple; I have not sorted out in my mind how it will fit into the equation.  Maybe tomorrow?  Maybe later in the week?

Finally, several observations from noted thinkers seem appropriate for my closing today:

“College football would be more interesting if the faculty played instead of the students – there would be a great increase in broken arms, legs and necks.”  [H. L. Mencken]

And …

“Immorality: the morality of those who are having a better time.”  [H. L. Mencken]

And …

“When it is a question of money, everybody is of the same religion.  [Voltaire]

And…

“Revolutions have never lightened the burden of tyranny; they have only shifted it to another shoulder.”  [George Bernard Shaw]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The resurrected USFL will play its championship game on Sunday.  The Philadelphia Stars and the Birmingham Stallions will compete in that title game.  The TV audiences for USFL games started strong but waned as the regular season progressed; nonetheless, FOX is hoping for a decent audience this weekend.  Over the regular season, the USFL telecasts averaged 715,000 viewers.

That number stands in stark contrast to the TV numbers for the NFL or for major college football contests – – but FOX points out that the USFL is not competing against those juggernaut TV attractions.  In reality, the USFL is competing against springtime sporting events after March Madness and The Masters are over.  There are two categories of springtime sports starting in mid-April:

1. Major sports include NBA regular season and playoffs, NHL regular season and playoffs and MLB
2. Lesser sports include Formula One racing, English Premier League games and MLS games.

The USFL TV audiences are competitive with all the “Lesser sports” listed above and are even close to those of NHL regular season games.  For me, the big question for USFL 2.0 is this:

• What will happen next year when XFL 3.0 shows up as a direct “spring football competitor” for USFL 2.0 with TV exposure on ESPN?

That question is interesting to me because just this week there were reports that FOX – which owns USFL 2.0 – has hired an investment firm to see if there are investors out there who would like to buy a piece of the league.  Reports say that FOX wants something in the neighborhood of $150M – $200M for an unspecified percentage of the league.  It seems to me that offer to sell part of the league can be taken several ways:

• FOX is worried about the competition from XFL 3.0 next year and wants to hedge its investment.
• FOX still sees USFL as an emerging property and has specific growth plans for the league that will benefit from an extra $200M or so in cash.
• Stay tuned…

Another report related to “football on TV” is that Amazon – which holds the rights to Thursday Night Football starting this year – has recently hired “vagabond QB”, Ryan Fitzpatrick to be an analyst on Amazon’s pregame show.  Lest anyone think I am demeaning Fitzpatrick by referring to him as a “vagabond QB”, I use that term as a statement of fact.  Fitzpatrick played in the NFL for 17 seasons on 9 different teams.  He moved around so much that United Van Lines could have named him its Customer of the Decade.

Fitzpatrick will join Tony Gonzales and Richard Sherman on that program.  There are reports that Marshawn Lynch is also in negotiations to be part of the presentation.  Gonzales has studio show experience and it was positive experience; he should be a big plus for the Amazon program.  Sherman is outspoken and articulate; if he does not go overboard in an attempt to be controversial about everything, he too should be a big plus.  Fitzpatrick is a Harvard grad; his post-game press conferences as an NFL QB demonstrated that he is perfectly in command of the English language.  I think this is a great step for him now that his playing career is over, and I think it is a good hire for Amazon.

If I may be so bold, let me offer Ryan Fitzpatrick one small suggestion:

• Trim the beard.
• Don’t shave it off but style it a bit.
• The “Wolfman look” is OK as a player; on TV – – not so much.

Serena Williams’ wild card slot in the Wimbledon Tournament ended unceremoniously with a first-round loss to the woman ranked 105^th in the world at the time.  I did not see the match but saw some highlights on You Tube after I read that Williams had lost in the first round.  Williams is 40 years old and had not played serious competition since last year at Wimbledon; it showed.  Serena Williams’ status in the world of tennis today is analogous to Tiger Woods’ status in golf.  At one point, each of them was unarguably the best in the world at their sport; such is no longer the case.  For now, Serena Williams appearances in any pro tennis tournament will make folks root for her to win just because of the greatness she has exhibited in the past; she is now tennis nostalgia.  Time marches on…

The Las Vegas Review-Journal reported that the Raiders are now facing a series of lawsuits alleging harassment and retaliatory personnel actions in its Front Office over the past years.  [Fans in Washington face to the west, tip their caps and say, “Welcome to our world.”]  After being grilled by a Congressional Committee for more than two hours on the Washington situation, Roger Goodell needs this news like the Donner Party needed a master chef.  However, just to show that no matter how bleak a situation might seem things can always get worse, allow me to present a horrendous idea:

• Have Mark Davis put in a call to Daniel Snyder seeking advice on how to handle this sort of thing …

Finally, I will close today with an item from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times from a while back:

“The Yankees cut outfielder Jake Sanford — a 2019 third-round pick — for allegedly pilfering equipment from his minor-league teammates and selling it online, the Newark (N.J.) Star-Ledger reported.

“That’s one way to lead the league in steals.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………