Letting My Mind Wander…

The Browns traded Baker Mayfield to the Panthers yesterday; the fact that it happened on the day I speculated on Mayfield’s future is totally coincidental.  The fact that the trade went down prior to any publicly announced steps in the resolution of Deshaun Watson’s disciplinary hearing makes me wonder if the Browns think Watson’s suspension will be minimal or non-existent.  With Mayfield out of the picture, the Browns QB situation is:

1. Deshaun Watson – – who knows when?
2. Jacoby Brisset – – capable back-up QB; not sure he is a 17-game/year QB
3. Joshua Dobbs – – tell the running backs to get set for lots of action

Rather than speculate on what happens to Watson and the Browns, let me look at the trade itself.  The Panthers acquire Mayfield and will pay only half of his guaranteed salary of $18.9M.  That acquisition improves the Panthers at the QB position, but do not get carried away on a wave of euphoria, the Panthers are still not a good football team.  So, what did the Panthers have to give up in trade to make that improvement?

• The Browns received a conditional 5^th round pick in 2024 – – that might become a 4^th round pick based on the amount pf playing time Mayfield has in Carolina.
• And the Browns are off the hook for half of Mayfield’s salary in 2022.

Basically, the Panthers gave up a bag of beans to acquire Mayfield.  Yes, I know that Stefon Diggs and George Kittle were 5^th round picks; I still maintain that the Panthers got Mayfield for next-to-nothing.

Now the decision-making falls to the Panthers.  Mayfield will be an unrestricted free agent in February 2023.  Let the speculation on that front begin…

• [Aside:  Do not let the Browns’ organization off the hook here too easily.  They spent an overall #1 pick on Mayfield, picked up his expensive 5^th year option and then turned him into a disgruntled employee.  That almost sounds like a case study at Harvard Business School.]

Over the weekend, the USFL held its championship game in Canton, OH; the Birmingham Stallions beat the Philadelphia Stars in that game.  Forget who won or lost that game, here is the important takeaway:

• USFL 2.0 – a professional Spring football league in the US – began and finished its first season of operation intact and the announcement by the league and FOX which owns the league is that it will be back in 2023.
• The last professional Spring football league in the US to achieve those milestones was XFL 1.0 back in 2001.

I continue to try to wean my self away from thinking about college football realignment and conference expansion, but my mind does not allow me to drop it completely.  And one of the ways that my mind works is to take a situation and look at it “backwards” to see how things appear from that vantage point.  So, all the talk about college football changes seems to involve how things are getting bigger – and better? – over the near and mid-term.  Well, suppose it gets smaller?

I believe there are 130 colleges that compete in Division 1-A football.  Once the program movement is completed the Big-10, the SEC and the ACC will hold a minimum of 47 of those schools – more than a third of teams.  The folks paying to televise those games will be paying top dollar to those 3 conferences – not in equal shares to be sure – because they will have the reliably good teams to put on the air against one another.  So, there will be continued pressure on the conferences to accrete “the best teams”.

At the same time, broadcast rights money for the lesser conferences will likely shrink.  It would be “ratings suicide” for a network to pay good money to the Sun Belt Conference to put national game on TV up against games from both the Big-10 and the SEC; the simple fact is that a game involving Old Dominion and Troy is not going to attract eyeballs against that competition.  Nonetheless, it costs real money for a school to maintain a Division 1-A team and that makes me wonder:

• Might some of the schools now in Division 1-A opt to step down a notch and compete in Division 1-AA – – or even Division 2?

I am not predicting this will happen, but it is an outcome that I have not seen fleshed out much in general commentary.  And if that sort of movement begins to happen, might there be pressure on the conferences to continue to strengthen themselves by “ejecting” some of its traditional doormats to bring in a new team that might be more competitive.  If that sort of behavior were to become commonplace, schools like Rutgers and Vandy might find their membership in an “elite conference” less than stable.

OK, I just upped the dosage on my meds; I can move on – – for now…

A quick look at the MLB standings this morning demonstrates the value of pitching and defense.  The Rays are in second place in the AL East despite an anemic offense.  The Rays have scored fewer runs than any team in that division including the Orioles.  However, the Rays have also allowed only 315 runs in 82 games (3.8 runs per game).  Only 3 teams in MLB have allowed fewer runs for the season than the Rays.  Yes, home runs and offense are important, but so to are pitching and defense…

Finally, here is an observation from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times:

“Outback Steakhouse has ended its 26-year sponsorship deal of the Outback Bowl.

“‘Gentlemen, start your Poulan Weed-Eaters!’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………