Football Friday 12/4/20

For many people, the most accurate sentiment expressed on Friday is:

  • Boom-Chakalaka!

Here in Curmudgeon Central, Friday is not considered to be a time for raucous behavior because Friday in Curmudgeon Central is Football Friday.  And the traditional way to begin is to review the results – no matter how embarrassing they may be – of last week’s Six-Pack.

  • College: 1-2-0
  • NFL:  1-2-0  [Is there an echo in here?]
  • Combined:  2-4-0

Those results bring the pitiful season-long results to:

  • College:  10-17-1
  • NFL:  17-25-1
  • Combined:  27-42-2

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Three more of the college football bowl games were officially canceled last week.  The Sun Bowl, normally played on New Year’s Eve in El Paso, TX, will not happen this year.  I was unaware of the fact that the Sun Bowl had the second longest run of consecutive bowl games behind only the Rose Bowl.  Had the game happened this year, it would have been the 87th game in the history of that celebration.

Another bowl game casualty this year will be the Las Vegas Bowl.  On tap was a game between teams from the SEC and the PAC-12 and it would have been the first bowl game played in the new Allegiant Stadium normally home to the NFL’s Las Vegas Raiders.

The third bowl game to bite the dust was the Pinstripe Bowl normally played in Yankee Stadium in NYC.  This year the game was to feature a Big-10/ACC confrontation but travel restrictions plus local regulations on having fans in attendance at live events made this game impossible.

If my research is correct, here are the bowl games that will not happen this year:

  1. Bahamas Bowl
  2. Celebration Bowl
  3. Fenway Bowl
  4. Hawaii Bowl
  5. Holiday Bowl
  6. Las Vegas Bowl
  7. Motor City Bowl
  8. Pinstripe Bowl
  9. Redbox Bowl
  10. Sun Bowl

That list represents a whole lot of airtime that the myriad ESPN networks will need to backfill.  These must not be fun times at the HQs of the World Wide Leader…

Last week, Iowa State beat Texas 23-20.  This keeps Iowa State firmly in charge in the Big-12 and it has caused extreme agita among the Texas alums.  This is the first time in the history of Iowa State football – – going back to 1892 – – where the Cyclones have beaten Texas and Oklahoma in the same year.  That is the positive outcome from this result.  The more cynical question that arises is:

  • Does this make the deep-pocketed Longhorn boosters sufficiently itchy to pull the trigger and buy out Tom Herman? 

Do not be surprised; Texas is 9-7 in conference games since Herman took the reins.  That is not the sort of record one might expect when the hiring of Tom Herman was accompanied with declarations that “Texas is back!”

On the other hand, realism would suggest to those deep-pocketed Longhorn boosters that Texas has not been a Big-12 champ since 2009.  Mack Brown was the coach then and those same impatient and deep-pocketed boosters ran his butt out of town on a rail.

  • Memo to College Football Coaches:  Anyone taking the Texas job needs to do two things:
  1. Come to grips with himself that he is taking this job for the money and not for the glory.
  2. Make sure his agent has an iron-clad and cushy buy-out clause in the contract.

Iowa beat Nebraska 26-20.  The Huskers led 20-13 with 12 minutes to play in the third quarter but they never threatened to score after that.  After that point of the third quarter, here is the Nebraska offense through the final 27 minutes of the game:

  • 3 plays  4 yards  PUNT  Time of possession = 1:44
  • 7 plays  40 yards  PUNT  Time of possession = 3:04
  • 7 plays  12 yards  PUNT  Time of possession = 2:41
  • 4 plays  20 yards  LOST FUMBLE  Time of possession = 0:37
  • Totals:  21 plays  76 yards  Time of possession = 8:05

The Nebraska center has had problems with snaps at various times this season and continued to have difficulties in this game.  Nebraska coach, Scott Frost said that Iowa players were rhythmically clapping their hands on the sidelines and that interfered with the Nebraska cadence.  To the surprise of exactly no one, Iowa coach, Kirk Ferentz dismissed that idea as nonsense.

  • Memo to Nebraska Coaching Staff:  Be sure to recruit a center for next year’s team that can deal with opponents’ rhythmic clapping strategy.  In the meantime, have you ever heard about ear plugs?

Missouri beat Vandy 41-0.  The only interesting thing about this game is that Sarah Fuller – the goalkeeper on the Vandy women’s soccer team – suited up and was the kicker for the Commodores in this game.  She never got a chance to try a PAT or a field goal; her only participation for the day was a squib kick on the second half kickoff that Missouri downed at the 35 yardline.  Fuller is the first woman to play in a football game in one of the so-called Power 5 conferences.

In the week after this result, the SEC dialed-up to 10 in virtue signaling.  Sarah Fuller was named the co-Special Teams Player of the Week in the SEC.  She did something no one had done before but her performance last week merits exactly no accolades:

  • Her only play was the kickoff to open the second half.
  • It was a squib kick; it went all of 30 yards.
  • Memo to the SEC:  You wanted everyone to look at you and say what a good thing you did last week having a woman participate in a football game.  Ok, we are looking at  you.  Unfortunately, what we see is that you have demeaned the idea of naming a Special Teams Player of the Week.  You no longer recognize football as a meritocracy.

Alabama beat Auburn 42-13 in the Iron Bowl.  This is what I call an “efficient win” because Bama was a 28.5-point favorite at kickoff and won by 29.

Florida beat Kentucky 34-10.  Both defenses played better in this game then they had in the previous several weeks – – but the Florida offense is much superior to the Kentucky offense.  Kentucky ran the ball effectively, but its passing offense netted a total of 62 yards for the day.  Just as a simple approximation, that is about 1 yard per minute of playing time; just for clarification; that is not good.

Ole Miss beat Mississippi State 31-24 in the Egg Bowl.  Considering that there was a total of 1029 yards of offense in this game, it was relatively low scoring.  Mississippi State had 440 yards passing and 39 yards rushing (on only 14 carries).  That is what  you call an unbalanced offense.  Ole Miss ran out to a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter; Mississippi State clawed its way back to only trailing by 3 points – – 24-21 – – midway through the 4th quarter but they could never get on the plus side of the scoreboard.

Texas A&M beat LSU 20-7.  Each team gained exactly 267 yards on offense; this was a defensive slugfest.  The Aggies came within a minute of pitching a shutout; LSU scored with only 43 seconds left on the clock.  Both teams were a less-than-laudatory 2 of 16 on third down conversions.  The difference can be found in the 3 turnovers committed by LSU as opposed to 0 turnovers by Texas A&M.

It is time to pay the Aggies some attention.  They have exactly one loss so far this year – to Alabama which is no embarrassment – and they have a win over Florida in The Swamp.  Florida is on track to be the SEC East champion.  This is the kind of “relevance” that Aggie boosters envisioned when they coughed up the big bucks to hire Jimbo Fisher.

Notre Dame beat UNC 31-17.  The game was tied at halftime at 17; then the Irish defense asserted itself.  The Tar Heels had the ball 6 times in the second half; they punted on the first 5 possessions and lost the ball on downs on the 6th possession.  Total yardage for UNC in the second half was 78 yards on 27 plays – – 2.89 yards per snap.

Clemson beat Pitt 52-17.  At the end of the 1st quarter, Clemson led 31-0; there was never any mystery about how this game would end up.

Oregon State beat Oregon 41-38 in the Civil War.  Oregon had been considered the best of the PAC-12 teams and Oregon State was considered as an “also-ran”.  Not anymore, this is a big dent in Oregon’s image nationally.  Oregon led 31-19 starting the 4th quarter and surrendered that lead badly.  If the perception of Oregon as the best team in the PAC-12 persists, then the PAC-12 just became irrelevant when it comes to the CFP.

Stanford beat Cal 24-23.  Cal scored a TD with about a minute left in the game to make the score 24-23 but the PAT was blocked, and Stanford ran out the clock.  Cal won the stat battle gaining 393 yards to 300 yards for The Cardinal.

Indiana beat Maryland 27-11.  In the first half, Maryland drove into the Red Zone 4 times and came away with a total of 3 points.  The Terps clamped down on Indiana WR, Ty Fryfogle, holding him to only 2 catches for a total of 10 yards.  However, Indiana demonstrated a run game that had not been particularly effective until this game and ran the ball for 234 yards.

Penn State beat Michigan 27-17.  That is win #1 for the Nittany Lions and another embarrassment for the Wolverines.  The Wolverines were outgained by 131 yards for the day; Penn State faced 19 third-down situations and converted 8 of them.  If Penn State wins another game this year, it will be the 900th win in school history dating back to 1887.  Here is the rest of the Penn State schedule:

  • Dec 5:  At Rutgers
  • Dec 12:  Vs. Michigan State

Michigan State beat Northwestern 29-20.  So much for Northwestern being undefeated and dominating the Big-10 West.  At 5-1, Northwestern still leads that division, but Iowa is 4-2 and the Hawkeyes have now won 4 in a row.  Turnovers played a big part in the Northwestern loss; they gave the ball away 4 times in the game and only took it away once.

Oklahoma State beat Texas Tech 50-44.  That keeps Oklahoma State on pace to be part of the Big-12 Championship Game, but this was not a game designed to impress the CFP Selection Committee.  Tech outgained the Cowboys by 100 yards in the game driven by 384 yards passing against the Cowboys’ defensive backfield.  Yes, this was a “bounce-back win” for the Cowboys after losing to Oklahoma last week – – but beating Texas Tech by only 6 points is not a résumé builder.

East Carolina beat SMU 52-38.  At halftime, E. Carolina led 45-7.  SMU rallied in the second half, but they had dug themselves into too deep a hole to pull out the game.

Wyoming beat UNLV 45-14.  This is not a game of any consequence, but I cite it here because Wyoming ran the ball for 399 yards in the game.  That yardage came on 55 rushing attempts; at one point in the second half, the Cowboys ran off 28 unanswered points along the way to this rout.

UMass ended its season at 0-4 with a shutout loss to Liberty 45-0.

Meanwhile, in the MAC , Buffalo beat Kent State 70-41.  Buffalo RB, Jaret Patterson ran wild here; he ran for 409 yards and scored 8 TDs.

Elsewhere in the MAC, E. Michigan is winless at 0-4.  Last week they led Central Michigan 20-6 at the start of the 4th quarter.  Then the E. Michigan defense disappeared and allowed Central Michigan to score 25 points in the 4th quarter providing E. Michigan with that 4th straight loss of the season by a score of 31-23.

La-Monroe lost to La-Lafayette 70-20.  The only marginally important thing about this game is that it leaves La-Monroe with an 0-9 record for 2020.  To date, La-Monroe has been outscored 372 – 148.  Ouch!  La-Monroe has two games left on its schedule against Arkansas State and against Troy – – both games are on the road.

 

College Games of Interest:

 

I believe that 19 scheduled games this weekend have been either canceled or postponed.  There were 5 games scheduled for today; 4 of them will not happen.

 

Vandy at Georgia – 35.5 (53.5):  Given the Georgia defense, I wonder if Sarah Fuller will get to try a field goal or a PAT this week.  Given the standard for last week, if she makes a 35-yard field goal, she should be named Player of the Year in the SEC…

BC at UVa – 4 (55):  BC will have to go without its first string QB and its featured RB in this game.  Virginia had last week off due to virus problems at Florida State.  I like the Cavaliers to win and cover at home; put it in the Six-Pack.

Ohio State – 24 at Michigan State (59):  The Buckeyes are 4-0 and need to play 6 games to comply with Big-10 rules for 2020 for participation in the Big-10 Championship Game.  Just in case one of the final two games needs cancelation due to COVID-19, the Buckeyes need to post impressive an impressive win in the other game to impress the CFP Selection Committee.  I think that happens here; I’ll take Ohio State on the road to cover this monster spread; put it in the Six-Pack.

Nebraska at Purdue – 1 (62.5):  Clap – – Clap – – Clap-clap-clap…

Penn State – 11.5 at Rutgers (52):  As noted above, this would be the 900th win for Penn State football.

Florida – 17.5 at Tennessee (62.5):  The Gators are looking at the SEC Championship Game as the winner of the SEC East.  The Vols are not likely to derail that train…

Oregon State at Utah – 11.5 (52):   The Beavers pulled off a major upset of Oregon last week (see above); Utah has not won a game yet this year.  The oddsmakers seemingly have brushed aside those facts setting the line here…

Stanford at Washington – 11 (50.5):  Well, if Oregon is not the class of the PAC-12 as had been suggested, maybe Washington is…?

Oklahoma State – 1 at TCU (51.5):  This is a must-win for Oklahoma State if they want to stay in contention for the Big-12 Championship Game; TCU cannot make it to that game.

West Virginia at Iowa State – 6.5 (49):  The Cyclones have only 1 loss in conference and lead the race to the conference Championship Game.  West Virginia has 3 losses in conference.

Indiana at Wisconsin – 14.5 (44.5):  In what looks to be a low-scoring game, that line looks fat to me.  I’ll take the Hoosiers plus the points on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Kansas at Texas Tech – 27 (62.5):  Texas Tech is not a good football team; they are 3-6 going into this game.  Kansas just plain stinks: they are 0-8 starting this game.  The oddsmakers obviously think Kansas stinks a lot worse then does Tech with the line they have on this game.

Texas A&M – 6 at Auburn 48.5):  Both teams have to deal with inconsistent play from their QBs.  Auburn’s Bo Nix can look like a bum one week and an early round NFL Draft pick the next.  The Aggies’ Kellen Mond is as unpredictable as the weather.  What is consistent is the Aggies’ defense.  Even though Auburn is tough at home, I like the Aggies to control this game on defense; I’ll take the Aggies to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Alabama – 29 at LSU (66.5):  It is not often that LSU is a 29-point underdog at home; after all, LSU does not schedule the New Orleans Saints.

BYU – 10 at Coastal Carolina (62.5):  This is a late “fill-in game” because Coastal was supposed to play Liberty this week until the coronavirus intervened.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

            The Niners have moved their home operations to Arizona for the rest of the season because of new coronavirus restrictions in place in Santa Clara County.  A team without a home should be called the Vagabonds, no?

There is precedent for this sort of thing in NFL history.  In 1952, there was an NFL team called the Dallas Texans – not to be confused with the Dallas Texans of the AFL in the 60s that subsequently became the KC Chiefs.  The Texans were miserable finishing the year with a 1-11 record.  They started out playing their 1952 home games in the Cotton Bowl but after 4 losses there, they had their final two home games moved.

  • The Texans played the Chicago Bears in Akron, OH in the Rubber Bowl.  That game produced the only win of the year for the Texans by a score of 27-23.  That game was played on Thanksgiving Day and drew the grand total of 3000 fans who probably wondered why this circus had come to town.
  • The final “home game” for the Texans was against the Detroit Lions.  The teams had met earlier in the year in Detroit – – but this game was also moved to Detroit as the venue for the final game.  The first meeting of these teams had drawn just over 33,000 fans in Detroit; this final game of the season drew only about 12,000.

            In the college football commentary above, I mentioned the abject silliness offered up by Scott Frost to explain the problems his center had with snapping the football.  I thought for sure, that would set the bar for football-related balderdash for the week.  I was wrong; there is an NFL entry into that contest this week.  I will leave it up to you to decide which self-delusion is the greater.

Jerry Jones the owner, GM and mouthpiece for the Dallas Cowboys, tried to equate the Broncos’ having to play Kendall Hinton at QB last week to the Cowboys’ having to play Ben DiNucci at QB against the Eagles earlier this year.  Calling this “poppycock” would pay it an undeserved compliment.  Yes, both the Broncos and Cowboys had to play someone at QB that they had never planned to play at the position in 2020.  However, that is where the comparison ends:

  • Kendall Hinton’s NFL football career will be as a WR if he has an NFL career of any kind.  He was a QB for parts of seasons at Wake Forest but in his final year he transitioned to WR exclusively and was drafted as such.
  • Ben DiNucci’s NFL football career will be as a QB if he has an NFL career of any kind.  He was a QB all the way through college and the Cowboys – with Jerry Jones in charge of the Cowboys’ NFL Draft War Room – traded up to draft DiNucci in the seventh round of last year’s NFL draft.

The Cowboys spent future draft capital to acquire a guy they wanted to have on their team as a backup QB; the Broncos drafted a WR.  Saying that there is a solid comparison of the fates that befell the Broncos and the Cowboys is totally stupid.

Last week, The Saints beat the Broncos 31-3.  The Broncos were playing with a QB who was clearly overmatched; at half time, Kendall Hinton was:

  • 0 of 7 for 0 yards  (obviously) with 0 TDs (obviously) and 1 INT.

Hinton “improved in the second half” such that his final stat line read:

  • 1 of 9 for 13 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs

Nonetheless, when your starting QB throws more INTs than he does completions in a game, you are in deep yogurt.

The Falcons beat the Raiders 43-6.  How did that happen?  The Raiders may have squandered their “playoff cred” with this stinkpot of a game.  Derek Carr who had been playing very well for the last month managed to turn the ball over 4 times in this game; the Raiders turned the ball over a total of 5 times and those turnovers led to 23 points for the Falcons.  The Raiders have been a smash-mouth running team that bullies opposing defenses; the Falcons defense is hardly fearsome; so how did the Raiders manage a measly 40 yards rushing on 14 carries?  It was the Falcons that controlled the ball for 34:38 in this game and it was the Falcons that earned 23 first downs to only 13 for the Raiders.  The only “throwback stat” that might make Al Davis smile is that the Raiders were flagged for 14 penalties in the game to the tune of 141 yards.

The Vikes beat the Panthers 28-27.   The Panthers got two scoop-and-score TDs from Jeremy Chinn early in the third quarter to take a 21-10 lead. Late in the 4th quarter the Panthers were gifted a muffed punt that led to a field goal but a TD pass from Kirk Cousins to Chad Beebe along with the PAT provided the margin of victory for the Vikes.  The Vikes remain “sorta relevant” for a playoff spot in the NFC with this win.  Forget “sorta relevant” when you are talking about the Vikes’ rookie WR, Justin Jefferson; he is “really good”!

The Browns beat the Jags 27-25.  The Browns are now 8-3 and are squarely in the AFC playoff picture.  With that 8th victory, the Browns have assured that they will not have a losing season in 2020; it will be the first non-losing season for the Browns since 2007 and it will be only the 3rd season since 2000 without a losing record.  A cautionary note for the Browns, however, is that even with an 8-3 record, their point differential for the 2020 season is minus-21.  The loss accompanied the firing of Jags’ GM, Dave Caldwell; this was the Jags’ 10th loss in a row after winning their season opener.  The Jags started Mike Glennon at QB; he is the third QB to start for the team this year.  Jags rookie RB, James Robinson, accounted for 159 yards from scrimmage and a TD in the game.

The Giants beat the Bengals 19-17.  The Giants did everything they could in the final 4 minutes to keep the Bengals in the game but managed to hold on for a 2-point win.  That put the Giants in the lead – for the moment – in the NFC East but QB Daniel Jones had to leave the game with what appeared to be a hamstring injury.  Colt McCoy came in to finish the game but was involved in one of the meat headedness  events that kept the Bengals hopes for a miracle win alive late in the game.  The Giants’ defense held the Bengals to 155 yards of offense for the game.

The Pats beat the Cards 20-17.  The winning play was a 50-yard field goal by Nick Folk as time expired.  Cam Newton had a statistically miserable day with this stat line:

  • 9 of 18 for 82 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs
  • 9 carries for 46 yards

Nevertheless, the Pats prevailed on the scoreboard to keep their playoff hopes alive.  Kyler Murray had an equally unimpressive day with these stats:

  • 23 of 34 for 170 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT
  • 5 carries for 31 yards.

The Dolphins beat the Jets 20-3.  Sam Darnold returned to the Jets as the starting QB.  His stat line was underwhelming:

  • 16 of 27 for 197 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs

Ryan Fitzpatrick was the QB for the Dolphins in the game and he had a good if not great game.  Against these Jets, it usually does not require a “great game” to secure a win and move on to the following week.  The Dolphins have now played 2 games – –  8 quarters of football – – against the Jets this year and have allowed the Jets to amass the grand total of 3 points – – the field goal in this game.

The Bills beat the Chargers 27-17.  The stat sheet looks balanced except for the Chargers’ inability to convert third-down situations.  The Chargers were only 3 for 16 on third down conversions.  Chargers’ QB, Justin Herbert had another good game for stats:

  • 31 of 52 for 361 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.

The Chiefs beat the Bucs 27-24.  Early on, It appeared as if the Chiefs might win this game 49-3 or something like that and perhaps Patrick Mahomes would break Norm Van Brocklin’s record for passing yards in a game (554 yards) set back in 1951.  The Chiefs led 27-10 at the start of the 4th quarter but the Bucs put on a serious rally that just fell short.  The Chiefs got the ball with 4 minutes left to play in the game leading by a field goal and never relinquished possession of the ball.   Tyreek Hill scored on receptions of 75, 44 and 20 yards, and finished the game with 13 catches for 269 yards  The Chiefs won their sixth straight game and notched their seventh 10-win season in the last eight years under Andy Reid.

The Niners beat the Rams 23-20.  The Rams are the closest the NFL comes to Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde – – and it was Mr Hyde who showed up last week.  The Niners’ defense rose up and stifled the Rams’ passing game such that Jared Goff posted this stat line:

  • 19 of 31 for 198 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs.

That is better than what the Broncos got out of their QB last week – – but the Broncos never drafted him with the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft…  Neither side dazzled on offense.  The Rams turned the ball over 4 times; the Niners gave it away 3 times.  Combined, the teams faced 27 third-down situations and combined they converted all of 7 of those.

The Packers beat the Bears 41-25.  The game was not that close; it was 41-10 to start the 4th quarter and the Bears got two meaningless TDs after that.  Given the Bears’ less than proficient offense, their only hope was to thwart Packers’ drives and make then kick field goals.  Well that did not happen; when the Packers drove the ball, they scored TDs from beginning to end.  Michell Trubisky was the QB for the Bears and he was not nearly as bad as the score might indicate – – but he did miss a couple of very open receivers in the game.

The Seahawks beat the Eagles 23-17.  The Seahawks were clearly the better team on the field, but the Eagles’ defense kept the game in doubt until late in the 4th quarter.  DK Metcalf caught 10 passes for 177 yards in the game; the Seahawks total offense was 301 yards, so Metcalf accounted for 59% of the team output for the night.  The Seahawks at 8-3 lead the NFC West; the Eagles at 3-7-1 are half a game out of first place in the NFC East.  Go figure…

The Steelers beat the Ravens 19-14.  It took the NFL about 150 hours to get through last week’s games – – but this one got it done.  It was either a “game of defensive might” or a “game of ineptitude on offense”; take your pick.  The Ravens with RG3 and Trace McSorley at the controls managed a total of 219 yards of offense for the day – – 70 of which came on a single play.  The Steelers had the ball for more than 33 minutes and amassed a puny 334 yards on offense.  Perhaps the biggest news item from this game is an injury to Steelers’ LB, Bud Dupree.  He left the game in the 4th quarter with a knee injury that is feared to be a torn ACL.

 

NFL Games:

 

Two teams are on BYE weeks this week.

  • The Bucs have a week off to try to blend a Bruce Arians offense with a Tom Brady offense to a greater degree than they have done so to date.
  • The Panthers have a week off to get two of their best offensive players – – Teddy Bridgewater and Christian McCaffrey – – back in playing condition.

Detroit at Chicago – 3 (45):  This game opened the week with the spread at 6 points.  I am not sure why enough people are interested in this game to bet enough money on it to move the line – – but it happened.  Personally, I think this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Bears have lost 5 in a row; the Lions have lost 2 in a row.  But the Lions just fired their coach and players seemed happy to get that news.  Purely a hunch here but maybe the Lions exhibit a dead-cat bounce for this game; I’ll take the Lions – even on the road – plus the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

Cincy at Miami – 12 (42):  Who will be the starting QBs here?  Both teams have choices to make there.  There is no choice, however as to which defense is better.  The Dolphins rank 2nd in the NFL giving up 18.6 points per game; the Bengals rank 22nd in the league giving up 26.8 points per game.  The Dolphins have playoff possibilities in sight as motivation for this game; the Bengals’ only real motivation deals with how high a draft pick they are going to get next year.  Two trends point this game toward the Dolphins:

  1. Dolphins are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 home games as the favorite
  2. Bengals are 0-17-1 straight up in their last 18 road games

Indy – 3 at Houston (50.5):  The Colts must win here if they hope to win the AFC South.  Currently they are a game behind the Titans; the teams have split their head-to-head games, but the Colts already have 2 division losses to only 1 for the Titans.  The Texans will playout the rest of the season without starters Bradly Roby on defense and Will Fuller on offense.  They will both serve 6-game suspensions for PED usage.  The Texans are 4-7 on the year and had players using performance enhancing drugs?

Jax at Minnesota – 10.5 (51):  The Jags can choose between 3 QBs to start this game – – none of whom can claim to be anything more than a journeyman even though one of them is a rookie.  The Vikes will start a hot-or-cold QB.  The Vikes are still mathematically alive as a playoff team but a loss here would be devastating.

Las Vegas – 9 at Jets (47):  The line opened at 8 points and has been moving slowly upward all week; at one sportsbook this morning you can find the game listed at 10 points.  The Raiders were awful last week (see above); the Jets have been awful since the start of the season.  The Raiders’ playoff hopes would take a significant hit if they lose this game.  The Jets’ control over next year’s NFL Draft would take a significant hit if they win this game.  The Jets lose games by an average of 15.5 points per game; the Raiders are better than an average opponent; give me the Raiders to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

New Orleans – 3 at Atlanta (45):  The Saints lead the NFC for now and control that single BYE Week in the playoff schedule for this year.  The Falcons can still make the playoffs, but it will take the intervention of a Fairy Godmother to make that happen.  Taysom Hill led the Saints to a win over the Falcons a couple of weeks ago; now coaches have a few games worth of film to study Hill’s game; that could be significant this week.  However, do not look for a big game from the Falcons running attack:

  • Falcons rank 30th in the NFL in yards per carry
  • Saints rank 2nd in the NFL in yards allowed per carry.

Cleveland at Tennessee – 6 (53.5):  This line opened the week at 3 points and has been slowly but surely creeping upward.  Both teams appear to be locks to make the playoffs come January and this is the only game on the card this weekend where you can make that statement.  Hence, I declare this to be the Game of the Week.  Both teams win by running the football; the Browns lead the league averaging 161.4 yards per game rushing; the Titans are 2nd in the NFL in rushing offense at 158.2 yards per game.  Three trends here should give Browns’ fans pause:

  1. Browns are 3-30 straight up in their last 33 games as road underdogs.
  2. Browns are 1-15 straight up in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record.
  3. Titans are 11-3 straight up in their last 14 games as the favorite.

Giants at Seahawks – 10 (47):  The spread opened at 7 points; it jumped to 9 points very quickly and has continued to rise from there.  Yes, I know that this is a battle between two teams that currently lead their divisions – – but the Giants do so because they stink less than the other 3 teams in the NFC East at the moment.  Russell Wilson and company are not going to run wild on an improving Giants’ defense.  However, the Giants QB options for this week are:

  • Daniel Jones nursing a hamstring injury which will certainly limit his scrambling game to some extent – – or – –
  • Colt McCoy who is a veteran – – but a veteran without an impressive record.  As a starting QB, his teams are 7-21-0 in 28 games – – or – –
  • Clayton Thorsen who is a rookie on the practice squad and you get bonus points if you can name the school where he played college football without resorting to Google.

I hate double-digit spreads in NFL games, but the Seahawks are undefeated at home and the Giants’ QB situation looks awfully bleak; I’ll take the Seahawks and lay the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

Rams – 3 at Arizona (48):  The Rams lead the Cards by a game and both teams still have an eye on the playoffs even though both are looking up at the Seahawks in the NFC West.  The Cards have lost 3 of their last 4 games and have not looked in sync in any of them.  Watching Jalen Ramsey play DeAndre Hopkins should be worth the price of admission here – – if there were tix to be had.

Philly at Green Bay – 8.5 (48):  The Eagles’ defense played very well last week; they will need to replicate that performance this week if they want to keep up with the Packers.  The Packers lead the NFL in scoring at 31.8 points per game; the Eagles’ offense is not nearly so effective ranking 25th in the NFL and scoring only 21.5 points per game.  The only ray of hope for the Eagles is that they rank 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry and the Packers rank 25th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry.  A successful run game might limit the time Aaron Rodgers has to carve up the Eagles’ defense…

New England at Chargers “pick ‘em” (47):  The line for this game is all over the place.  You can find the Pats as 1-point favorites; you can find the Chargers as 1.5-point favorites; the most common line is simply “pick ’em”.  This is a long trip for the Pats and the team has not been impressive recently.  Cam Newton may not be the better QB on the field.  However, remember that Bill Belichick teams are 20-6 against rookie QBs…

(Sun Nite) Denver at KC – 14 (51):  The Good News for the Broncos is that they will have a real QB to start in this game.  The Bad News for the Broncos is that the Chiefs will start Patrick Mahomes at QB in this game.

(Mon Late afternoon) Washington at Pittsburgh – 7.5 (41.5):  This line opened at 9.5 points and fell to this level very quickly.  The strength of the WTFs is their defense – – and the Steelers’ offense has not been dominant this year and looked pedestrian against the Ravens on Wednesday.  The loss of Bud Dupree to the Steelers’ defense means they are now down two quality linebackers having lost Devin Bush earlier in the season.

(Mon Nite) Buffalo at SF – 1 (47):  The spread here opened the week with the Bills as 3-point favorites; somehow the move to Arizona makes the Niners favored?  Maybe so, after all, the Niners are only 1-4 in home games in Santa Clara.  The last time the Bills played at Arizona, Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins beat them with a Hail Mary pass at the end of the game; that is not going to happen again.  I like the Bills to win outright, so I’ll take them with the 1-point cushion; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Tues Nite):  Dallas at Baltimore –  9.5 (45):  The Ravens have lost 3 games in a row; they are 2 full games behind the Browns in the AFC North AND they are only on the fringe of participating in the playoffs.  A loss here would be significant.  Yes, Dallas still has a shot to win the NFC East.  So what?  Dallas will have had 2 weeks off since playing on Thanksgiving Day; the Ravens will play on a short week after losing to the Steelers on Wednesday.  Two trends of interest here are:

  1. Ravens are 7-1 straight up in their last 8 home games against losing teams
  2. Cowboys are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 games on the road.

So, let me review the so-called Six-Pack which is over-crowded with 8 selections this week.

  • UVA – 4 over BC
  • Ohio State – 24 over Michigan State
  • Indiana +14.5 against Wisconsin
  • Texas A&M – 6 over Auburn
  • Raiders – 9 over Jets
  • Lions +3 against Bears
  • Seahawks – 10 over Giants
  • Bills +1 against Niners

Finally, since I mentioned that two Texans’ players will be suspended for 6 games for using PEDs, here is a comment from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times on the same subject but different player:

“Seahawks D-lineman Damontre Moore got suspended a half-dozen games for violating the NFL’s policy on using performance-enhancing substances.

“In other words, a sit-six.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………