Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend Of 10/16/16

I realize that these picks are a day earlier than has been the schedule so far this year. The reason is simple. This weekend is my Annual Autumnal Pilgrimage to Las Vegas and I will need to leave at zero-dark-thirty on Friday morning necessitating an early bedtime on Thursday night.

A few – and I do mean A FEW – of these Mythical Picks will morph themselves into actual wagers on actual NFL games depending on line movements and vibrations that I get from the world ether once I am in the sportsbook itself.

Last week was a positive week for NFL Mythical Picks. I made 13 selections and the record for the week was 7-5-1. That brings the record for the season to 45-32-1.

The Best Picks of the Week were:

Falcons +6 against Broncos. Falcons won straight up by a TD.
Cowboys +1.5 against Bengals. Cowboys won straight up by 2 TDs.

The Worst Picks of the Week were:

Rams -2 against Bills. Bills won by 11 points.
Cards/Niners UNDER 43. Total score was 55 points.

The Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol did not have a productive week. Last week, the coin went 0-2-0 making its cumulative record 4-4-0. That is pretty much what one ought to expect from flipping a coin…

Notwithstanding the positive results from last week, no one should use anything here as the basis for making a real wager on a real NFL game involving real money this weekend. Here is how stupid you would have to be to do something like that:

You think a Milk Dud is a cow that gives no milk.

General Comments:

Last week, Frank Gore passed Jim Brown on the list of all-time rushers in the NFL. Gore has had a career that is very unusual. While he was at the University of Miami, he had to sit out two full seasons as he had reconstructive surgery on both knees. Running backs get injured in the NFL and it surely appeared as if he were coming to the league “pre-injured” and so he fell in the draft to the 3rd round of the 2005 NFL Draft; the Niners were the team that took him then. During his pro career, he has “had work done” on both of his shoulders; but his knees have held up just fine.

In his 11 seasons, here are some of Frank Gore’s stats:

2780 rushing attempts
12,368 yards gained
41 fumbles

Gore is now in 9th place on the list of all-time NFL rushers; in the last year he has passed the likes of Jim Brown, Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James and Marcus Allen on that list. At the moment he stands 372 yards behind Tony Dorsett for 8th place on the list; his career average is 73.2 yards per game meaning we can expect him to reach that milestone early in the Colts’ game against the Steelers on 24 November.

One other thing I like about Frank Gore is his nickname. Notwithstanding the obvious fact that he is not former Vice President, Al Gore’s sibling, Frank Gore’s nickname is:

The Inconvenient Truth.

The NFL week began with a Thursday Night game that was painful to watch. The Cards beat the Niners 33-21; but as I watched the game, it never really crossed my mind as to which team would be the winner. To a large extent, the Niners could hang this loss on the play of QB, Blaine Gabbert; he threw 2 INTs and both gave the Cards a very short field to work with. Gabbert’s stat line was:

18 for 31 for 164 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs

Let me be clear here; those INTs were an important part of this game because the Cards’ offense with Drew Stanton in the pilot’s seat was not exactly fearsome. What Stanton did was to avoid the big mistake. That was what he needed to do and his stat line got the job done despite not being eye-popping:

11 for 28 for 124 yards

[Aside: Gabbert was not the only cause for defeat however. The Niners “pass-catchers” morphed into “pass-droppers” on more than a couple of occasions in the game.]

I mention this situation and those stats because the Niners are going to switch QBs this week and put Colin Kaepernick in the game against the Bills in Buffalo. A lot of fans think it is high time this change was made and conspiracy theorists have come up with their own “explanation” for why Kaepernick has yet to see the field. No, it has nothing to do with his “anthem protest” …

Evidently, there is a clause in Kaepernick’s contract (total value = $114M) that guarantees his 2017 salary at $14.3M if he sustains an injury this year that carries on past April 1, 2017. This is similar to the situation the Skins faced last year with RG3 where an injury would have put them on the hook to play RG3 something north of $16M this year had he been injured last year. To assure that he did not get injured, he only dressed for 1 game last year and did not come close to playing in that game.

Those conspiracy theorists will have their concept bolstered by reports early this week that Colin Kaepernick has agreed to “restructure” his contract and subsequent to those reports came the announcement that he would start on Sunday. Who knows? The conspiracy theorists might be right…

I think there are two very pragmatic – and less nefarious – ways to view the confluence of events that led to Chip Kelly’s decision this week given the sub-standard performance(s) of Blaine Gabbert in the past couple of games:

1. Lots of people think Kaepernick is the sort of player who would be a great fit for Kelly’s helter-skelter offense. Perhaps Kelly thinks he might be “the guy” for “the system” but is not sufficiently convinced that he wants to take a $14.3M gamble on him. So the conversion of some of that guaranteed money into readily attainable incentives might be a part of the decision. Injuries are a fact of life for NFL QBs. In Kelly’s system, they are a clear and present danger.

2. Perhaps Kelly is convinced that Kaepernick is NOT “the guy” for “the system”; perhaps he has seen enough to have made that decision. Naturally, he would not broadcast that because he would prefer to trade Kaepernick and get something in return in lieu of just releasing him. However, that “injury clause” might be making Kaepernick “untradeable” so the removal of that clause does two things for Kelly:

a. He can play Kaepernick and “showcase him” to the league

b. He can play Kaepernick and let Kaepernick try to prove that he can really be “the guy” for “the system” – – without that Sword of Damocles hanging over the team’s salary cap.

Moving on … The Falcons beat the Broncos 23-16 in Denver. The Falcons are 4-1 and have now beaten the two teams that played in the Super Bowl last February on successive weekends. Two weeks ago, Matt Ryan threw for 500+ yards in a game and Julio Jones caught and ran for 300 of those passing yards. Last week, Jones and Ryan connected only twice in the game for a total of 29 yards; last week, it was the Falcons’ RBs that put the hurt on the Broncos:

Devonta Freeman ran for 88 yards (and a TD) and added another 35 yards receiving.

Tevin Colman ran for 31 yards and added another 132 yards (and a TD) receiving.

Given the way the Falcons have played in the last two weeks, I have to wonder how they possibly lost to the Bucs in Week 1 of the year… The Broncos started rookie Paxton Lynch in this game and the Falcons’ defensive game plan was to shut down the Broncos’ run game and make Lynch beat them. The Broncos only gained 84 yards rushing (18 of which were from Lynch himself) and Lynch could not generate anything near enough in the passing game to make up for the lack of a rushing attack. The Broncos had a total of 78 yards of offense in the first half and only 267 yards on offense for the game.

The Packers beat the Giants by the same 23-16 score last week. The Giants total offense in this game was only 219 yards. Please recall that when the Giants parted company with Tom Coughlin last year, they promoted their offensive coordinator – Ben McAdoo – to the head chair to keep continuity on offense while the team sought to reinforce the defense in the offseason. Imagine if they had promoted the defensive coordinator… Aaron Rodgers was not his other-worldly self in this game; he threw 2 INTs and missed open receivers on about 3 occasions. But his performance was enough to win the game given a strong defensive showing by the Packers.

The Vikings dominated the Texans 31-13. The Vikings are the only remaining undefeated team in the league and their recipe for success is simple and straightforward:

Field a smothering defense
Do not turn the ball over. (Vikes have lost 1 fumble in 5 games and have thrown 0 INTs!)

Last week, the Vikes held Brock Osweiler to 19-42 for 184 yards. Osweiler did throw a TD pass but it came in “garbage time” when the Vikes led 31-6. A key stat for the game was that the Texans were 1 for 13 on 3rd down conversions.

The Texans sit atop the AFC South but all is not well in Houston. In 5 games, the Texans have scored 81 points. That may look bad on the surface, but here is how bad it really is:

Only the Seahawks have scored fewer points this year. The Seahawks have scored 79 points – – but they did that if 4 games not 5 games.

The Jags – hardly an offensive juggernaut – have scored 84 points in 4 games.

The sorry-assed Browns have scored 87 points in 5 games.

With JJ Watt on the shelf, the Texans’ defense is not the dominant force it was last year. So this anemic offense is not a good omen for Houston fans.

Another game last week had the same 31-13 outcome. The Steelers trounced the Jets 31-13. The return of Le’Veon Bell over the last two games had been a big deal for the team. His running and his ability to catch short passes has opened up even more the downfield game for Ben Roethlisberger and the WRs. Roethlisberger’s stat line was 34 for 47 for 380 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs. Rookie Sammy Coates dropped 3 long bombs in this game; all of them hit him in both hands. Nevertheless, the Steelers coasted to a win.

Ryan Fitzpatrick played really well for the Jets in 2015; he has regressed to the mean so far this year. Is that because he and the Jets could not reach a contract agreement until late in the offseason or is that because he is merely a journeyman who had a career year in 2015 or perhaps – – both? The Jets need to find a way to figure out what they are going to do at the QB position in the future. They have 4 QBs on their roster. The question they need to answer is simple:

Can any of them lead the Jets’ team to a playoff slot sometime in the near future?

Geno Smith has never been very good.

Can either Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg play at a level even close to “NFL journeyman”?

The Pats beat the Browns 33-13 in the “Tom Brady Comeback Game”. Yes, it was an ass-kicking just as the score would indicate. In fact, the Browns were just as effective in this ass-kicking contest as a one-legged man. Tom Brady said he felt “rusty” out there; nonsense! Here was his stat line and I’ll just leave it at that:

28 for 40 for 408 yards and 3 TDs with 0 INTs

By the way, this was the 227th career win for Bill Belichick as a head coach and that win allowed him to pass Curly Lambeau – yes THAT Lambeau – and puts Belichick in 4th place on the all-time win list for coaches.

The Browns started 3rd string QB, Cody Kessler in the game but he got hurt so Charlie Whitehurst took over. Then Whitehurst got hurt later in the game to the point that the Browns have released him and paid him an “injury settlement”. Perhaps Kessler can play this week, but if he cannot the Browns have elevated Kevin Hogan from their practice squad to the main roster. Hogan was a 5th round pick in the NFL Draft this year; he was the QB at Stanford last year.

The Titans spanked the Dolphins 30-17 last week – but it really wasn’t that close. The Titans focus their offense on running the ball; they have run the ball 148 times in 5 games. Moreover, they average 5 yards per rushing attempt. Meanwhile, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in rushing defense. The Dolphins give up 150.8 yards per game and 754 total yards rushing. Added to the obvious ability to control the game and the pace of the game, Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota threw for 3 TDs last week. The Dolphins scored 17 points, but one TD came on a punt return so their offense was nothing to crow about. One reason the offense was stifled is that Ryan Tannehill was sacked 6 times…

The Skins beat the Ravens in Baltimore 16-10. The last time the Skins won a game in Baltimore was a win over the Baltimore Colts in 1955. Skins’ QB, Eddie LeBaron, had 2 TD runs of 1 yard each in that game. George Shaw was the QB for the Colts then – John Unitas had not yet arrived in Baltimore – and two of the RBs for the Colts then were Alan Ameche and Buddy Young. It had been a while …

Last week was the second week in a row where the Skins were the beneficiaries of “strangeness”. Two weeks ago against the Browns, the Skins allegedly recovered aa fumble despite the fact that a Cleveland Brown’s player was standing up and holding the ball as the referees sorted out the pile up to find who in the pile had the ball that wasn’t there. Last week, Kirk Cousins threw an INT from his own 3 yardline but the Raven defender seeking to reach the ball over the pylon fumbled it out of the end zone giving the ball back to the Skins on a touchback at their 20 yardline. In essence, the Skins gained 17 yards by throwing an INT and not recovering the ensuing fumble. If the Skins continue to get those sorts of breaks for the rest of the year, they are going to the Super Bowl.

The Ravens fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman this week and elevated Marty Morninwheg to the job. Joe Flacco was 30 for 46 in this game – – but for only 210 yards. That is not typical; Flacco normally throws the ball down the field.

There was one other goofy play in the game. The Ravens decided to try a fake field goal. That is not goofy; teams try that on more than one occasion. However, this play was designed such that the Ravens right-footed kicker, Justin Tucker, had to line up in a left-footed stance. That sort of took the “element of surprise” out of the equation…

The Lions beat the Eagles 24-23 despite the fact that the Eagles held the Lions to less than 250 yards offense in the game. The problem for the Eagles is that they turned the ball over twice in the final 3 minutes and you do not win games playing that way…

The Cowboys beat the Bengals 28-14 and it was a thrashing. The Bengals’ defensive line and linebackers were pushed around for most of the day. Ezekiel Elliott ran wild (15 attempts for 134 yards and 2 TDs) and the Cowboys’ defense – not the team’s long suit to be sure – held the Bengals scoreless for 3 quarters.

The Bills beat the Rams 30-19. LeSean McCoy ran for 150 yards on 18 carries against a good Rams’ defensive line. The fact that Rams’ QB, Case Keenum threw 2 INTs helped seal the deal here…

The Raiders beat the Chargers 34-31 last week. Before mentioning anything about this game specifically, please consider this unusual stat regarding the Chargers:

The Chargers have outscored their opponents in their 5 games 152-142 and yet, their record is 1-4.

No other team in the league with a 1-4 record is even close to breaking even on “points for” versus “points allowed.”

Once again last week, the Chargers had a chance to tie the game with a late field goal but the snap sailed through the holder’s hands and … oh well. The Raiders are winning close games with positive plays late in games this year; the Chargers are losing close games with dismal plays late in games this year. It is as simple as that… Philip Rivers had 359 yards passing and 4 TDs here – – but he also threw 2 INTs. Add to those turnovers, two lost fumbles – one from Antonio Gates and another from Melvyn Gordon – and you see how the Chargers’ season has been unfolding.

[Aside: After the game, Melvyn Gordon attributed his lost fumble to “lack of focus”. In a close game, I wonder how a player “loses focus”. After all, an NFL offensive player is on the field for less than 30 minutes per week. It would seem to me that “maintaining focus” for that amount of time should be a piece of cake.]

The Colts beat the Bears 29-23 last week. I know I have been harping on how bad the Colts’ defense is but last week they almost outdid themselves. They allowed Brian Hoyer to throw for 397 yards and 2 TDs and they gave up a total of 552 yards of total offense. We are talking about Brian Hoyer here and not Dan Marino. The Colts survived that no-show by the defense with 2 TDs from Andrew Luck and 5 FGs by Adam Vinitieri who may have learned how to kick from Pete Gogolak.

In an abjectly horrid MNF game, the Bucs beat the Panthers 17-14. Normally, close games are interesting because each possession can represent a lead change. Not this one; each possession portended a new way for the offense to find a way to do nothing meaningful or interesting with the possession. The Panthers turned the ball over 4 times; Bucs’ kicker Roberto Aguayo missed 2 easy FGs – before making the game winner as time expired. The Panthers’ defensive line looked dominant for most of last season; on Monday night they looked extremely ordinary.

There was no line on this game when I posted last week’s Mythical Picks so I could not make a selection; however, I did say that I thought Derek Anderson would start at QB for the Panthers and that it would be a low-scoring game. That does not count as a successful Mythical Pick, but I do believe I had this game pegged.

Before getting to this week’s games, let me point out that both NFL teams from NYC have lost 3 games in a row. Forget for a moment the angst and the frustration of the fans. Put yourself in the position of the guys at the two NYC tabloids who have to decide which team to insult on the back page of those tabloids. That has to be a tough call …

The Games:

There are 2 teams with BYE Weeks:

The Vikes get a week off and will be toasts of the town in the Twin Cities.

The Bucs get a week off and a few folks in Tampa may even notice.

(Thurs Nite) Denver – 3 at San Diego (45): We know one thing for sure about this game:

Gary Kubiak will not be the head coach for the game; he is suffering from a “migraine condition” and will miss this game. The Broncos’ special teams’ coordinator will act as the head coach on Thursday night.

Here is a key thing we do not yet know about this game:

Can Trevor Siemian play here or is this another start for Paxton Lynch?

My interpretation of the 3-point spread here is that the oddsmakers believe that Siemian will not be ready to go in the game and/or if he can go in the game he will not be anywhere near peak efficiency. I do not think that the Chargers can shut down the Broncos’ running game the way the Falcons did last week; therefore, no matter who the QB for the Broncos may be, the team will not be one-dimensional on offense. I like the Broncos to rebound here. I’ll take the Broncos to win and cover – even on the road.

Cincy at New England – 8.5 (47): When I looked at the list of games, I thought this might be the Game of the Week. It should be a good one, but not the best one. The Bengals are up against it; they are 2-3 for the season putting them in 3rd place in the AFC North. Moreover, they have lost their only division game and that record is an early tie-breaker; they need this game badly. The Pats are in first place in the AFC East and seem to be making do with a “rusty” Tom Brady at QB (see above). Last week, Brady had some “extra motivation” coming off his suspension; this week the entire Pats’ squad should have some “extra motivation” because their last game at home was a loss to the Bills in a shutout. I think the Bengals are overmatched and in a bad spot here. I’ll take the Pats and lay the points.

Baltimore at Giants – 3 (43.5): Purely a hunch, but I think both offenses can wake up here against these defenses. I like this game to go OVER.

Carolina – 3 at New Orleans (53): Speaking of waking up, if the Panthers’ offense cannot wake up against this defense, they will return to their status in these rants as the “Pantloads”. Given that I have no idea who will play QB for the Panthers in this game, I will turn the proceedings over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol. The coin says to take the game to stay UNDER. Why not?

Pittsburgh – 8.5 at Miami (47): At first glance, this looks like an easy pick. The Steelers with Le’Veon Bell should run the ball down the throat of the Dolphins bad run defense (see above). Add Ben Roethlisberger versus Ryan Tannehill to the equation and the matchup looks even more lopsided. So, how come the spread is only 8.5 points? The reason the line started at 7.5 points and has only inched up a tad is this:

The Steelers are much better at home than they are on the road.

This is a trap game for the Steelers; next week they can prepare to host the Patriots in Heinz Field. I think the line is fat; I’ll take the Dolphins plus the points.

Jax at Chicago – 2.5 (46.5): Such a bad game – – but still not the Dog-Breath Game of the Week… There is a whiff of a QB controversy in Chicago between Brian Hoyer and Jay Cutler. The Bears are not a good enough team to deal with controversy and an opposing team. Unless, of course, that opposing team is the erratic Jags. Key question for the Jags’ offense:

How many times will Blake Bortles throw the ball to a guy in the wrong colored jersey?

Do not watch this game and do not bet on this game. I am turning it over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol, and the coin says to take the game to go OVER.

SF at Buffalo – 8 (44): The Ryan Brothers can be counted on to do one thing in every game they coach and that is to get after the opposing QB. Colin Kaepernick will be the target this week; he had better be in good sprinting shape and prepared to get the ball out of his hands quickly because the Bills will be coming after him. I think he will make a couple of big plays in the game meaning that the Niners will score a few points. That makes me uncomfortable taking the Bills with the spread so I’ll take the game to go OVER.

LA at Detroit – 3 (43): The Rams’ strength is their defense – particularly the front 7. The Rams have some injuries this week in the front 7. Therefore, how reliable can the Rams be on the road even against a team that is mediocre. Make this a venue call; I like the Lions to win and cover.

Cleveland at Tennessee – 7 (43.5): This is the Dog-Breath Game of the YEAR. I will be in a sportsbook in Las Vegas this weekend and I still will pay no attention to this howler. The Browns’ run defense is better than the Dolphins’ run defense – – but it is still not good. There is no way I want to take the Browns here but I also do not want to lay a full TD with a Titans’ team that will not be favored by this much again this year unless they schedule a Sun Belt team during their BYE Week. I’ll take the game to go OVER only because I said I would make a pick in every game.

Philly – 2.5 at Washington (44.5): The spread opened with the Skins as 1.5-point favorites; it flipped to the Eagles’ side almost immediately and as of now you can actually find the Eagles as 3-point favorites at one Internet sportsbook. In addition, the Total Line opened at 46.6 and dropped to this level very quickly. The absence of Lane Johnson on the Eagles’ OL is important; he is suspended until Week 16 this year. I like the Skins at home plus the points here. I also like this game to go OVER.

KC at Oakland “pick ‘em” (47): The Chiefs and the Raiders as a “pick ‘em game” harkens back to the 1970s. I like the Chiefs – under Andy Reid – after a BYE Week; I also like the Raiders this year and the way they are winning close games with big plays. I cannot use the Coin Flip Protocol in a “pick ‘em game” so I’ll take the Chiefs to win on the road coming off a BYE Week.

Atlanta at Seattle – 6 (46): Here we have the Best Game of the Week. The Falcons have to cross the country to get to this venue after a satisfying – but hard-fought – win in Denver last week. Meanwhile Seattle had a BYE Week which can’t do anything but help Russell Wilson’s recuperating knee and ankle. Here is a stat about Russell Wilson and the Seahawks at home:

Since his rookie year, Wilson and the Seahawks are 29-5 at home in the regular season.

I think both teams will score in this game. I like the game to go OVER.

Dallas at Green Bay – 4 (47.5): The spread opened at 7 points and dropped quickly to this level. The Cowboys can and do run the football; Green Bay has the top run defense in the NFL as of the moment. Who wins that confrontation? I think it is the Cowboys because the Green Bay run defense has not faced a top running team with its top personnel. Adrian Peterson went out in the first half; Ameer Abdullah did not play; the Giants had to go with both of their top runners on the sidelines. The Cowboys have not enjoyed much success in Cheese Country over the past few years, but I think they have a shot here. I like the Cowboys plus the points.

(Sun Nite) Indy at Houston – 3 (46): If Brock Osweiler cannot light up the Colts’ defense, then the Texans’ braintrust should commence a multi-year feeling of buyer’s remorse at a pro-rated $18M per year. Give the kid a pass for failing against the Vikes last week, but now we are more than a quarter of the way through the season and he gets a divisional foe at home who cannot play defense. That is his wake-up call. I will be watching this game simultaneously with the NLCS game on Sunday night from Wrigley Field. I think Osweiler plays well and I think Andrew Luck plays well so I’ll take the game to go OVER.

(Mon Nite) Jets at Arizona – 7.5 (46.5): The Cards are 2-3 but have outscored opponents by 24 points so far this year. I assume Carson Palmer will be back for this game meaning that the Cards’ OL will have to be on its best performance behavior to keep him from taking any more shots from a good Jets’ DL. However, the Jets’ DL is the only thing on the team that is any good this year. I like the Cards to win big here. I’ll take the Cards at home to win and cover.

Finally, former NFL aspiring QB, Tim Tebow, was the subject of a comment by Brad Dickson of the Omaha World-Herald recently:

“Tim Tebow hit a home run on the first pitch of his pro baseball career. He thanked his offensive line for making it possible.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………