The Sports Curmudgeon

About two weeks ago, I posted a bunch of comments about the upcoming college football season.  Here is a paragraph from that essay which has seemingly come to pass:

“The CFP remains at 4 teams playing 3 games to determine the national champion for a year.  The CFP poohbahs said that would stay the same until 2026 – – but that pronouncement was before the stratospheric TV deal struck by the Big-10.  Expanding the CFP to 8 teams will slightly more than double the games to be put on TV and that means big money for the CFP beneficiaries.  Do not be surprised when that decision to stand pat at 4 teams is ‘revisited’.”

The “revisitation” seems to have happened already as the CFP overseers recently announced a plan to expand the CFP – – not to 8 teams as I think would make sense – – but all the way to 12 teams and they might implement that change as soon as 2024.  There have always been competing and parochial interests in college football that have made a national championship tournament difficult if not impossible to achieve.  It seems to me that the amount of money to be derived by such a thing is now so big that those competing interests have coalesced sufficiently to allow all of them to have a taste.

The idea of determining the national college football champion on the field is not a new idea.  I recall articles in Sports Illustrated about 50 years ago calling for such a thing in support of a proposal put to the NCAA for just – – such a thing.  Obviously, those articles and the proposal itself had no impact on the NCAA mavens at the time because nothing really happened until the late 1990s when the BCS came into existence.

There is an adage that says:

“Perfection is the enemy of progress.”

And that was certainly the case with the BCS which was anything but perfect, but it was progress.  Compared to the idea that a national champion would be decided by a vote of either scribes or coaches – – NONE OF WHOM would have seen very much of all the potential candidates for the title – – the BCS was great.  The problem with the BCS is that it was one game involving two teams; and in most years, there were more than two “worthy teams”.  The BCS Committee tried every which way to come up with a process to make the selection that would minimize the bitching and moaning the minute they announced the pairing and were never able to do that.  However, the BCS did one thing exceedingly well:

• It showed that there was a large TV appetite for a championship game and that such a “large appetite” resulted in the ability to get a large payment for the rights from media outlets.

Ultimately, the BCS exited stage left as the CFP came to center stage in 2014.  The CFP doubled the number of teams in the tournament and tripled the number of games that could be sold to TV companies.  As was the case with the BCS, people still bitched and moaned about teams that were not selected to take part and a drumbeat for expanding the CFP beyond 4 teams began almost immediately.  And so, here we are with an expanded CFP in sight; so, all is well.  It is the dawning of the Age of Aquarius for college football:

“Harmony and understanding

Sympathy and trust abounding

No more falsehoods or derisions

Golden living dreams of visions

Mystic crystal revelation

And the mind’s true liberation…”

[Hat tip to The Fifth Dimension here…]

Allow me to channel my inner Lee Corso here for a moment:

“Not so fast my friend!”

There will assuredly be complaints that there is no need to wait even until 2024 to effect the expansion; it should be done immediately.  If you have not yet heard that criticism, be prepared.  And while it will be very difficult for folks to have a meaningful basis for including even more teams, I will be shocked if we do not hear a ton of complaints about which conferences are “over-represented” and which ones never get a chance to show that they can compete with the big boys.  Diversity and inclusivity are touchstones for US society in 2022 but I will argue that in terms of deciding a college football champion, diversity and inclusivity have virtually no place in the decision process.

Let me point to last year when Cincy made the CFP as the first team outside the Power 5 conferences to do so.  Cincy was a very good team in 2021 and arrived at the game with a 13-0 record playing in the AAC.  What kicked them up in the consideration for a spot in the CFP was a victory at Notre Dame early in the season; that win purported to show that they could “hang with the big guys”.  I had no problem with that selection; I felt that Georgia and Alabama were clearly the best two teams in the country last year, but adding Cincy to the mix made no big difference to me.

Then Cincy ran into Alabama in a first-round game, and it was not even close.  Cincy was a very good team; Alabama was an excellent team; picking participants in the CFP based on diversity and inclusivity is such a bad idea.

In a 12-team field, the only thing that makes sense to me is for the Selection Committee to identify its “Top 4 Teams” and give them a BYE Week; then play the other 8 teams to cut the field to 8 and take that bracket down to a championship game.  I want to be wrong here, but I am afraid that this will set up some blowout games in the first two rounds.  If that is the case, then a 12-team field simply represents placing a higher value on quantity of games as opposed to quality of games.

The arguing and the negotiating on the matter is not over.

• The expansion will happen by 2026 but might happen as soon as 2024.  Negotiation item.
• The expanded CFP will need either a new media rights deal or a modification to the current one depending on the timing of the expansion.  Negotiation item.
• Will there be a formula for CFP invitations, or will it be free-form every year?  Negotiation item.
• Quo vadis the myriad college bowl games?  Negotiation item.

And because there are some people who always want more than they have:

What is the OVER/UNDER on how long after the 12-team field is implemented until there are calls for expanding the field to 16 teams?

• I set the OVER/UNDER at 7 days after the championship game in the first 12-team field.

Finally, since the Selection Committee for the CFP has been – and should continue to be – considered as college football experts, let me close with this definition of an expert from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Expert:  A person who gets to give an opinion via satellite on television news programs simply because he is an adjunct professor of public health policy at Sunnydale Community College and wrote a book called something like ‘World Perspectives on the Indigenous Growth of Interdepartmental Conflict in Tanzania, 1929-1947.’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A common adage advises:

“It is better to remain silent at the risk of being thought a fool, than to talk and remove all doubt of it.”

I shall not heed the advice contained above; if I did, I would not be in any position to produce my annual set of predictions about the upcoming NFL season.  A few predictions here will be perfectly accurate; most will be somewhat off target; some will be laughably incorrect; that is how these things always turn out.  I will not ignore my failures because sometime after the NFL regular season ends, I will prepare and produce a post-mortem on these predictions and grade my prognostications.

There will be four sets of predictions here:

1. NFL coaches on a hot seat
2. NFL players who may be “disappointing” in 2022
3. Will any team go “worst to first” in their division – – and vice versa
4. Predicting the exact regular season record for all 32 NFL teams.

There is no hidden agenda here; I do not begin this undertaking with some sort of sinister intention toward a team or two in the league.  The same goes for the coaches and players about whom I will predict “disappointment” or even firing; I have nothing against any of them; I do not know any of them.  And most importantly, when I make a huge mistake about a teams’ record for the year and vastly underestimate their record, I do not owe that team or the fans of that team any sort of apology.  What I do owe them – and everyone else – is an admission that I made a huge mistake and that is what I will do in the post-mortem after the season is over.

With that as the preamble, let me begin with my NFL coaches on a hot seat.  Last year, I mentioned 8 coaches in this category.  Three were fired; there were caveats attached to three others that did not come to pass; the other two were just plain wrong.  So, here is this year’s list of 6 coaches on a hot seat in alphabetical order lest anyone think I am prioritizing:

1. Klif Kingsbury (Cardinals):  I had him on this list last year; I thought he needed a playoff appearance to save his job last year.  The Cards did make the playoffs but made an early and embarrassing exit losing to the Rams 34-11.  The Cards were also disappointing in another way last year that could give the execs in Arizona pause.  The Cards started out 7-0; then they finished the season going 4-6.  That tendency to “fade in December” has happened for all the time Kingsbury has been with the team.  The Cards’ record under Kingsbury in September and October has been 15-8-1.  His record in November, December and January has been 9-17.  I think that trend needs to change in 2022.
2. Mike McCarthy (Cowboys):  This is another encore appearance on this list by a coach.  Yes, the Cowboys handily won their division last year posting a 12-5 record, but they too lost in the first round of the playoffs and the Cowboys played  a terribly sloppy game that day.  McCarthy’s burden is that Cowboys’ fans always think that their team on the field is Super Bowl worthy – even when that is not nearly close to true.  Making that even worse is that owner Jerry Jones usually thinks the same thing – and Jones has let it be known that he realizes he is getting up in years and wants a Super Bowl winner now or even sooner.  I think it might take an appearance in the NFC Championship Game for McCarthy to save his job this time around because the retirement of Sean Payton from the Saints would give Jerry Jones a shot at a coach that he has “admired” for years.
3. Frank Reich (Colts):  His record over the past 4 seasons in Indy has been 37-28; that sort of record usually does not get a guy fired.  However, the way that the Colts played and lost in Week 18 to the sorry-assed Jaguars last year such that they were denied a playoff slot paints a bullseye on Reich’s back.  Yes, you can pin a large amount of the blame for that loss on the way Carson Wentz played on that day – – and Carson Wentz is no longer a member of the Colts.  Reich has Matt Ryan under center this year and the Colts should be in the thick of the playoff hunt all season long; that is the expectation in Indy, and I think that can become a litmus test for Reich staying on in Indy.
4. Ron Rivera (Commanders):  Ron Rivera comes across as a genuine human being; sometimes he seems almost too nice a guy to be a football coach.  He has been with the Commanders for two seasons posting a combined record of 14-19 and given the organizational turmoil – – none of it of his doing by the way – – that record is solid.  But that organization has a history of hasty decisions that sometimes make you shake your head in disbelief.  I don’t think he will be fired but you never know with Danny Boy Snyder in charge…
5. Matt Ruhle (Panthers):  He is two years into a six-year deal and the first two years have been less than inspiring.  I said above that Klif Kingsbury’s Cardinals’ teams have faded in November, December and January; well, Ruhle’s Panthers’ teams have been even worse late in the season.  In his two years there, the Panthers have posted a 3-14 record in November and later in the regular season.  The Panthers were 5-12 last year and lost their last 7 games in a row.  If either thing happens again in 2022, Matt Ruhle will be out of work early in 2023.
6. Robert Saleh (Jets):  He came to NY with the reputation as a tough defensive-minded coach and the Jets’ defense had been a hot mess.  Well, they weren’t much better under Saleh last year – – and the Jets’ offense was pretty bad too.  Like Ron Rivera, Saleh also works for an organization that has been known to make head-scratchingly bad decisions.  In a rational world, Saleh would be safe for at least another year – – barring a 1-16 record in 2022 – – but working for the Jets is not necessarily a “rational world.”

NFL  players have a saying:

• “Father Time never missed a tackle.”

Advancing age catches up with everyone – Tom Brady and George Blanda notwithstanding – so last year, I put together a list of players that I thought might see some decreased level of performance in 2021.  There were 6 players on the list; I think 4 of the 6 had disappointing years.  So, here is my list for 2022; it too has 6 entries:

1. Calais Campbell:  He was on this same list last year and his stats suffered in comparison with his Pro Bowl seasons.  Campbell recorded only 1.5 sacks and 49 tackles last year.  He is back with Ravens again this year at age 36.  I suspect that he is a serviceable D-lineman at this point in his career and I have no doubt that he is a competent leader for that unit, but he is no longer anywhere near a Pro Bowl player.
2. Fletcher Cox:   His numbers went down significantly last year with  only 3.5 sacks and 35 tackles.  Remember, Cox plays an interior defensive tackle position so that total of 35 tackles is a real red flag to me.  He will be 32 this year.
3. Brandon Graham:  He missed 15 games last year due to injury and he is 34 years old having been in the NFL since 2010.  In the two games where he did see the field, he recorded exactly 2 tackles.
4. AJ Green:  In his first 7 years in the league, Green amassed more than 1000 yards receiving 6 times.  He is a 7 time Pro Bowl nominee and a 2-teim All-Pro but I do not think he can play at that level any more.  The good thing for the Cards is that they have Marquise Brown and will have DeAndre Hopkins (after a 6-game suspension) to take a portion of the load off AJ Green.  He is 34 years old and put up 848 yards receiving last year.  I think he may struggle to get 600 yards receiving this year.
5. Alvin Kamara:  He has some legal entanglements stemming from an arrest in Las Vegas in the offseason and the arresting documents say the incident involved “battery resulting in substantial bodily harm”.  That situation could well be a “distraction” for Kamara.  Moreover, Kamara has quite the statistical profile to live up to.  He was the Offensive Rookie of the Year 5 years ago; he has been nominated to the Pro Bowl in all 5 of his seasons; he was an All-Pro twice and he has always produced more than 1250 yards from scrimmage in a season.  He achieved those numbers with a total of 1285 touches over his career; that is a whole lot of wear and tear on a body…
6. JJ Watt:  Time and injuries have made it seem impossible for him to be the Hall of Fame level player he used to be.  He has missed significant fractions of seasons in 4 of the last 6 years and this year he is 33 years old.

Every once in a while during the NFL offseason, I find a couple of NFL team fan sites and check out what the rabid fanboys are projecting for their favorites.  As long as you don’t take them literally or seriously, it can be an interesting way to lose a half-hour of your life.  Teams that finished last in their division last year provide the fanboys on their fan sites with the fantasy of a “worst-to-first” resurgence for the local heroes come next year.

So, this year, I have added a feature here; I will try to identify which – if any – division cellar dwellers from last year have a chance at winning their division this year.  And because I am opining from Curmudgeon Central, I will also look to see if any of last year’s first place finishers might experience a “first to worst” catastrophe.

Here are last year’s last place finishers:

• Jets: No way they win the AFC East
• Broncos:  The offense will certainly be better with Russell Wilson in place of Drew Lock and the defense is very good.  The AFC West is awfully tough, but the Broncos have a glimmer of hope there.
• Ravens:  If the Bengals suffer “Super Bowl Loser Syndrome”, the Ravens could easily be the AFC North champion.
• Jaguars:  No way they win the AFC South
• Giants:  No way they win the NFC East.
• Lions:  I expect improvement here, but no way they win the NFC North.
• Panthers:  No way they win the NFC South
• Seahawks:  Even if they improve from last year – – which I doubt – – the NFC West is loaded with strong teams; no way they win the NFC West.

I think the Baltimore Ravens have the best chance in the AFC of having a “worst-to-first” revival season.

And for symmetry’s sake, here are last year’s division winners:

• Bills:  They won 11 games last year; it would take a catastrophic set of circumstances for them to finish last in the AFC East.
• Chiefs:  They won 12 games last year; however, the strength of the other three teams in the division makes the Chiefs vulnerable here simply because it might not take a significant decline to wind up in last place in the AFC West.
• Bengals:  Super Bowl losing teams often “underperform” in the next season; still, I do not see the Bengals finishing last in the AFC North.
• Titans:  To finish last in the AFC South, they would have to finish behind the Jaguars and the Texans, and I don’t see that happening.
• Cowboys:  The only way they finish last in the NFC East is for Dak Prescott to go down for the season in Week 1 leaving the team to go through the season with Cooper Rush and Will Grier at QB.
• Rams:  They may not make it back to the Super Bowl in 2022, but they will not finish last in the NFC West.
• Packers:  To finish last in the NFC North, they would have to finish behind the Lions and the Bears; that is not happening.
• Bucs:  They won 13 games last year; two teams in the division (Falcons and Panthers) are not very good; the Bucs may not equal last year’s record, but they are not finishing last in the NFC South.

I do not think it is likely that we will see a “first-to-worst” situation in the NFL this season but if forced to pick a favorite to do that, I would go with the Kansas City Chiefs.

            The preliminaries are out of the way.  There are opportunities for me to have already embarrassed myself with the comments/predictions above; however, the last phase of this piece really opens the door so that I can shame myself mightily.  I shall now embark on a mission to predict the exact record for all 32 NFL teams for the 2022 regular season thereby setting up the seeding process for the playoffs that will start in January 2023.

However, before I get to the numbers for 2022, I want to focus on 3 teams that I think are going to be less than mediocre because I do not think they have any plan on how to get better.  I am not just talking about teams that will lose a lot of games in 2022; I think the Jags will be out of the playoff chase by early October, but the Jags have a potential for improvement in upcoming seasons if they develop Trevor Lawrence and give him an offensive line that will protect him. Similarly, the Texans are going to lose plenty of times this year – – but at least they have a boatload of draft picks in their pocket for the next couple of years.  Here are the teams that seem to be poorly constructed AND are also adrift in that sea of sub-mediocrity:

1. Bears:  They have a high draft pick installed at QB.  Good move.  Now, without peeking, name me two better than average players on the offensive unit that complement Justin Fields.  Given the history of decisions made by the owners and the GMs over the past several years, I do not think that a “tanking strategy” is a surefire way for the franchise to right itself.
2. Falcons:  The flirtation with the Texans while trying to land Deshaun Watson did not work.  So, the team “pivoted” and traded Matt Ryan away so it could acquire Marcus Mariota to play QB until – – maybe – – Desmond Ridder shows that he may be able to do that in the NFL
3. Panthers:  The owner in Carolina seems to me to be like a gardener who about twice a week pulls up his plants by the roots to see how those roots are growing before putting them back in the ground.  If indeed patience is a virtue, he may not be overly virtuous…

Let me start with the AFC West.  I think this will be toughest division in the NFL in 2022; I believe all four teams will finish over .500 and the combined record for the four teams will be 42-26.

• Chargers:  I have the Chargers finishing 12-5 in the AFC West and winning the division.  The Chargers have an excellent young QB; they can run the ball and their defense should be improved.  Their head coach, Brandon Staley, is “unconventional” and sometimes takes gambles that turn out to be ill-advised.  He needs to stifle his creativity.  The Chargers’ defense got better in the offseason with the additions of OLB, Khalil Mack, and CB, JC Jackson.
• Chiefs:  I have the Chiefs finishing 11-6 taking second place in the AFC West.  The Chiefs have won this division in each of the last six years; this year should break that string.  The loss of Tyreek Hill is going to affect how the Chiefs go about getting their “chunk plays” and it now remains to be seen how quickly Patrick Mahomes can elevate the performance of the rest of his WR corps.  One weakness on the Chiefs could be their defensive backfield; if you cannot stop the pass in this division, you are in trouble.  In case you had not noticed, the Chiefs also lost WRs Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle in free agency over the offseason.  One advantage the Chiefs have in the division is Andy Reid; his physical stature and his performances at pressers make him easy to poke fun at.  But the man can coach…
• Broncos:  I have the Broncos finishing at 10-7 in the AFC West.  I think the Broncos are hard to scrutinize this year.  They should be stacked on defense and now they have a quality QB to run the offense; they have always been a tough out at home; that could make them the division winner here – – or they may suffer adjustment pains with their new QB and new coach.  I took a middle ground here, but the Broncos could win as many as 13 games or as few as 8.  Hi ho!  [Aside:  If history is a guide, the Broncos traded to acquire John Elway and won the Super Bowl twice and they also traded for Peyton Manning and won the Super Bowl again.  Now they just traded for Russell Wilson …]
• Raiders:  I have the Raiders finishing at 9-8 in the AFC West meaning that all four teams will be above .500.  The Raiders have a new coach and a new system, but I think their defense is not up to the task of containing the potent offenses in the rest of the division.  Moreover, the Raiders lost Yannick Ngakoue during the offseason, and he was the team leader in QB sacks last year with 10.  In addition, the Raiders’ OL is suspect.  There are three or four other NFL divisions where the Raiders would be the favorites to take the crown – – but not here.

Moving on to the AFC North …  I think this is the third-best division in the league this year and that the division will post a combined 37-31 record for 2022.

• Ravens:  I have the Ravens finishing at 11-6 and winning the AFC North.  Given the tsunami of injuries the Ravens endured in 2021, one has to assume the burden will be significantly lighter this season – – unless there is an incredibly angry football god somewhere up on Mount Lombardi.  Other than injuries, the only Achilles Heel I can see for the team is that Lamar Jackson needs to compartmentalize his contract negotiations with the team and just go out and play QB.
• Bengals:  I have the Bengals finishing at 10-7 for second place in the AFC North.  Part of this prediction is a sense that the “Super Bowl Loser Syndrome” will kick in to some degree and part is based on some discomfort I have with their defensive backfield.  Not to worry, Bengals’ fanboys, the Bengals will still make the playoffs this year.  The OL was not a team strength last year but for the 2022 campaign, the Bengals added La’el Collins from the Cowboys and Ted Karras from the Pats to bolster that unit.
• Steelers:  I have the Steelers finishing at 9-8 for third place in the AFC North.  Much of my optimism here is due to my conviction that Mike Tomlin will find ways to win games.  The Steelers are not going to blow people away with huge plays; they will win by grinding it out and making opponents deal with a “disruptive defense”.  Not only will this year’s Steelers have to deal with a new QB – – Mitch Trubisky in for the retired Ben Roethlisberger – – the Steelers also lost 3 competent WRs in the offseason, RayRay McCloud to the Niners, JuJu Smith-Schuster to the Chiefs and James Washington to the Cowboys.
• Browns:  I have the Browns finishing at 7-10 in last place in the AFC North.  [Aside: I just realized that this is the 8^th team I am “reviewing”, and it is the first one that I project to be under .500 for the season.]  Jacoby Brisset has shown himself to be a valuable  backup QB  with the emphasis on the word “backup”.  Now the Browns need him to start their first 11 games and I think that is going to be a problem that any late season rally will not be able to overcome.  Moreover, if Brisset has to miss any time, the Browns will need to trot Josh Dobbs onto the field.  In those first 11 games, the Browns will have to face the Steelers, Chargers, Pats, Ravens, Bengals Dolphins, Bills and Bucs – – with a backup QB.  Maybe losing Jarvis Landry in free agency will come back to haunt the Browns too.

Here we go into the AFC South … I think this will be the worst division in the NFL and the teams will combine for a miserable 28-40 record over the 2022 season.

• Colts:  I have the Colts winding up with a 10-7 record which will give them the AFC South division title.  I know that Matt Ryan is 37 years old, but he is an upgrade over Carson Wentz at QB.  The Colts’ defense got upgrades too with signings of Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue.  And, of course, Jonathon Taylor is still the featured RB…
• Titans:  I have the Titans winding up with an 8-9 record putting them in second place in the AFC South.  I think the Titans will be weaker on offense this  year for two reasons.  First, they traded A.J., Brown away and I will not be surprised if Darrick Henry begins to look merely human at the RB position.  Henry missed 9 games last season, but in the 8 games he played, he had a total of 237 touches; round that off and it comes to 30 touches per game.  In 2020, Henry led the NFL in rushing attempts (303) and in 2021 he led the NFL in total touches (397).  Derrick Henry is a great running back and those stats represent a lot of wear and tear on his body.  Both of those statements can be true…
• Jaguars:  I have the Jags winding up with a 6-11 record putting them in third place in the AFC South.  Clearly, the Urban Meyer experiment last year was a total failure; Joe Flabeetz would probably represent an improvement even if “good old Joe” did not arrive with a Super Bowl ring in his pocket.  The Jags have been a testament to futility in the NFL for a decade; they only won more than 6 games in a season once in that last decade.  Then they chose to hire Urban Meyer and it managed to get even worse.  The Jags drafted a “workout warrior” with their first pick in the NFL Draft this year; they need for their scouts to have made a great call on that decision; Travon Walker needs to be a defensive ace.
• Texans:  I have the Texans winding up with a 4-13 record which will seat them firmly in last place in the AFC South.  They have a new coach in Lovie Smith who has been to a Super Bowl in his career – – and with Rex Grossman as his QB! – – but that was a LONG time ago and Smith spent most of his recent times at Illinois where things did not go well.  With Davis Mills at QB, the Texans will need a healthy supply of legerdemain to win more than 4 games.

Let me finish up the AFC by looking at the AFC East.  I think this will be the second-best division in the NFL with the teams posting a combined record of 38-30 over the course of the 2022 season.

• Bills:  I have the Bills going 14-3 for the season giving them the NFC East title and giving them the best record in the AFC and awarding them the coveted BYE Week in the playoffs.  Josh Allen, Gabriel Davis and Stefon Diggs make for an exciting offense; adding Von Miller to an already stout defense can’t hurt.  The Bills should be “appointment viewing” this season.
• Dolphins:  I have the Dolphins going 9-8 for the season putting them in a tie for second place in the AFC East.  Tua Tagovailoa has been heavily criticized during his time in Miami and this year he has weapons that can either put the criticisms aside or give throat to all those fans who want to say “I told you so.”  With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the field, the defenses have to play deep just about every play.  That should open up short pass routes for Tua and that has been his forte so far in the NFL.   Also, the Dolphins’ running back situation improved with the acquisitions of Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel.
• Patriots:  I have the Pats going 9-8 for the season putting them in a tie for second place in the AFC East.  Believe it or not, my biggest concern with the Pats in 2022 is coaching.  I do not mean that I think Bill Belichick has lost it but the departure of Josh McDaniels along with some other assistants who joined him in Las Vegas and the rehiring of Joe Judge and Mike Patricia who both flamed out in head coaching positions gives me pause.
• Jets:  I have the Jets going 6-11 for the season consigning them to last place in the AFC East.  That projection counts on a rapid return to the field for Zach Wilson AND that when he returns, he plays a more controlled brand of football than he showed in 2021.  If Wilson has to miss a lot of time for any reason, the Jets will not win the 6 games I have projected here.  The Jets’ backup QBs are Joe Flacco (Tweedle-Dee), Mike White (Tweedle-Dum) and Chris Streveler (Who’s he?).  Beyond the horizon of this season, the Jets desperately need to find out if Zach Wilson is indeed their franchise QB.  The Jets upgraded the OL and the TE  position in the offseason.  Now Wilson has to show that he is worthy of having a team built around him.

So, in the AFC, the playoff picture looks like this:

• Bills get the BYE Week
• Chargers are the #2 seed
• Ravens are the #3 seed
• Colts are the #4 seed
• Chiefs are the #5 seed
• Bengals are the #6 seed
• Broncos are the #7 seed

It is now time to turn attention to the NFC.  Before I begin, let me say that there is a significant disparity in quality between the conferences this season.  Three of the four AFC divisions above were the top 3 divisions as measured by my projected combined record for the teams; in the NFC there is only one division that is above .500 in my projection.

Because it is natural for me to read from left to right and looking at a map the west coast teams are on the left, let me begin with the NFC West.  This is the only division in the NFC that I project to be over .500 for the season; the teams will finish with a combined record of 36-32.

• Rams:  I have the Rams finishing at 11-6 for the 2022 season and that will put them in a tie for first place in the NFC West with the Niners.  The schedule maker has not created tension for resolving that tiebreaker because the two teams will have played each other twice by the time Halloween rolls around.  The Rams needed to replace Odell Beckham, Jr. so they did that with Allen Robinson.  The Rams saw an opportunity to add experience to an already excellent defense and did so with Bobby Wagner.  The big concern here is Matthew Stafford’s “elbow tendonitis”; if that is real and if that is going to degrade his passing abilities, the Rams will suffer a significant decrease at the QB position.  In case you did not know, John Wolford and Bryce Perkins back up Matthew Stafford…  Another concern is that the Rams’ OL might not be as good as it was last season.
• Niners:  I have the Niners finishing at 11-6 for the 2022 season and that will put them in a tie for first place in the NFC West.  Both teams will make the playoffs; the division winner will host a first-round game and the other will go on the road.  Obviously, I am counting on Trey Lance being ready for his big moment as “The Guy” in SF.  He has enough weapons around him that he need not play at an All-Pro level for the Niners to be successful, but he cannot go out there and become a turnover machine.  The loss of RB, Raheem Mostert in free agency is not a good thing for the Niners.
• Cardinals:  I have the Cards finishing at 9-8 for the 2022 season and that will put them in third place in the NFC West.  The suspension for DeAndre Hopkins could put the Cards in a hole early this year.  In the first 6 games, the Cards will face the Chiefs, Raiders, Rams and Eagles.  You can be sure that the infamous clause inserted in – and then removed from – Kyler Murray’s contract regarding required home study time will come up if he makes a blunderous error.  And I cannot bring myself to count on JJ Watt being available to the team and playing at a high level for anywhere near 17 games.  (See above).  The loss of Chandler Jones in free agency did not help the Cards’ defense either.
• Seahawks:  I have the Seahawks finishing at 5-12 for the 2022 season and that will put them in fourth place in the NFC West.  The Seahawks entered training camp with an open competition at QB between Geno Smith and Drew Lock.  That is a riddle without a good answer; Geno Smith is going to be the starter in Seattle.  The pass catchers in Seattle are just fine; Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and Noah Fant make up a solid trio – – assuming there is a QB who can get them the ball reliably.  If the Seahawks are going to overachieve this projection, they are going to need their “12^th Man fans” to be as raucous as possible.

Moving on to the NFC North … I have this as a weak division where the teams will combine to produce a 31-37 record.  It is a division with two “haves” and two “have nots”.

• Packers:  I have the Packers going 12-5 for the 2022 season putting them in first place in the NFC North.  Aaron Rodgers makes the Packers the best team here on his own even though he will not have Davante Adams to throw to this year.  Rodgers’ challenge will be to teach his young pass catchers how to become real players – – sort of the way he did with Adams in the past.  Moreover, the Packers’ have a better than average set of RBs led by Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
• Vikings:  I have the Vikes going 10-7 for the 2022 season putting them solidly in second place in the NFC North.  The Vikes are another one of those teams that could easily do much better than this projection or they might finish below .500.  The new coach is Kevin O’Connell who was the offensive coordinator for the Rams; one of his charges is to elevate the offense in general and Kirk Cousins in particular.  Cousins has talent around him in WR John Jefferson and in RB Davin Cook and the defense looks solid.  Adding Za’Darius Smith to the Vikes’ linebacking corps serves a double purpose; it improves the Vikes’ defense, and it creates a hole in the rival Packers’ defense for them to fill.  Nonetheless, this prediction of the Vikes’ record is much closer to a guess than to something based on analytical thought.
• Lions:  I have the Lions going 5-12 for the 2022 season putting them in third place in the NFC North.  This prediction represents an improvement for the Lions on two fronts.  First, I have them winning more games in 2022 than they won in 2021 and I have them finishing out of the NFC North Division cellar for the first time since 2017.  This is an important year for QB, Jared Goff.  He has pass-catching weapons with him in the huddle in the persons of DJ Chark, TJ Hockenson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams; now his job is to get them the ball.  The Lions’ OL and their running game are above average, but the Lions’ defense is still suspicious despite getting Aiden Hutchinson high in the Draft last April.
• Bears:  I have the Bears going 4-13 for the 2022 season putting them in the NFC North division basement.  As noted above, the Bears have spent draft capital to get what they believe is a franchise QB, but he has nothing around him, and he has a porous OL.  The Bear’s defense is not in such horrible shape – – but their best defender, Roquan Smith, wanted to be traded and is playing on a contract year that will likely take him elsewhere starting next year.

Charging ahead toward the NFC South …  I have this as a mediocre division where the four teams will combine to achieve a 33-35 record.

• Buccaneers:  I have the Bucs finishing with a 12-5 record in 2022 putting them atop the NFC South.  I am well aware that Tom Brady is 45 years old, and that the Bucs’ OL has been devastated with injuries and defections over the past year.  I am also aware of all the speculation that Brady is having marital problems that might take his focus off football.  Notwithstanding all that, I think the Bucs are the best team in this division by a long shot – – unless Brady is injured, and they then turn to Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Griffin or Kyle Trask.
• Saints:  I have the Saints finishing with a 9-8 record in 2022 putting them in second place in the NFC South.  Sean Payton will not be on the Saints’ sideline this year for the first time in a long time.  That puts a big question mark in the team given that new coach Dennis Allen is a “defensive guy” not an “offensive guy” and because Allen’s earlier stint as a head coach was for just over two seasons with the Raiders where his team’s record was 8-28-0.  And then, there is the enigma known as Jameis Winston who is perfectly capable of throwing 4 TDs and 4 INTs in the same game.  Quien sabe…?
• Panthers:  I have the Panthers finishing with an 8-9 record in 2022 putting them in third place in the NFC South.  I am not trying to suggest that Baker Mayfield is a great QB but getting him from the Browns for a bargain basement price makes the Panthers a better team in 2022 than they were in 2021.  Now if Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy- – he has missed 23 games in the last two seasons – – and if the impatient owner there can resist creating unnecessary drama surrounding the team, the Panthers can move closer to the playoffs than in the recent past.  But those are two big “ifs”…
• Falcons:  I have the Falcons finishing with a 4-13 record in 2022 putting them in fourth place in the NFC South.  The Falcons will go with Marcus Mariota at QB; when he has managed to stay healthy for an extended period of time, he has shown himself to be a slightly-below-average-QB.  When a team anoints a QB of that stature as “the guy” even before training camp begins, it does not portend much success for the season.  When a team looks like it will struggle on offense, it would be nice to be able to look at the defense and say that unit might carry the team to glory.  When I look at the Falcons’ defense, I do not see much “toting capability.”

The last NFL division awaiting prediction is the NFC East …  I think this will be a weak division where the teams have a combined record of 32-36 for the season.

• Eagles:  I see the Eagles going 10-7 in 2022.  That will put them in the top spot in the NFC East.  The Eagles made a cameo appearance in the playoffs last year but were summarily dismissed by the Bucs.  In the offseason, they improved the offense getting AJ Brown and the defense in the draft and by signing Hassan Reddick.  The OL is excellent; the DL has the potential to be very good.  The question mark is Jalen Hurts.  He showed plenty of improvement as the season progressed last year but there is no way one might consider him a Top-15 QB in the league as this season begins.  But if he plays to that sort of level, the Eagles will be hosting a playoff game in January 2023.
• Cowboys:  I see the Cowboys going 9-8 in 2022.  That will have them finish second in the NFC East.  Yes, the Cowboys have the best QB in the division in Dak Prescott and yes, he has a bona fide deep threat in Cee Dee Lamb but the OL is nowhere near what Cowboys’ OLs have been recently to the point that there are reports the Cowboys are trying to lure Adam Whitworth and/or Jason Peters out of retirement and both players are over 40 years old.  On defense the Cowboys have Micah Parsons who is extremely disruptive and Trevon Diggs who can serve as a shut-down corner.  What else …?
• Commanders:  I see the Commanders going 7-10 in 2022.  That will have the Commanders in third place in the NFC East.  The team is hoping for a significant upgrade at the QB position in the person of Carson Wentz; he has the physical skills to be a fine QB but some of his decision making is beyond bizarre.  The Commanders’ projected starting RB, Brian Robinson, Jr., will miss time because he was shot twice when people tried to carjack him, and he resisted.  The DL will be missing Chase Young for at least 4 games, and it suffered the loss of two other players who saw plenty of field time.  The best things to happen to the team over the off season is that it was able to sign a contract extension with Terry McLaurin and drafting Jahan Dotson in April.  The worst thing to happen to the team over the offseason was losing perennial Pro Bowl G, Brandon Scherff, to free agency.
• Giants:  I see the Giants going 6-11 in 2022.  That will have them existing in the cellar in the NFC East.  [Aside:  Note the symmetry here regarding the two NYC teams; I think both will finish 6-11.  Fun times in the Big Apple…]  This is a make-or-break year for Daniel Jones, and he has a new coach in Brian Daboll who is given some credit for “developing” Josh Allen in Buffalo.  He certainly will not turn Jones into Allen in a single season; so, Jones needs to show enough improvement for the team to keep him around for further tutelage.  It would also help if Saquon Barkley could avoid the injury bug in 2022; he has missed 18 games in the last two seasons and only carried the ball 181 times in those two seasons.  Drafting Kayvon Thibodeaux to pair with Dexter Lawrence in the defensive front seven was a good move.

So here is how my NFC playoff seeding looks.  The Packers and the Bucs play each other on September 25.  Since I have them finishing the season with the same 12-5 record, the winner of that game will be the #1 seed in the NFC Playoffs and the loser will be the #2 seed.  The final NFC seed will be decided by a tiebreaker among the Cardinals, Cowboys and Saints.  The Cardinals and Saints play each other on October 20; the Cowboys play neither of these teams.  So, the tiebreaker will be complicated, and I will wait until it is much closer to the time to worry about how it will be broken.

So here is my NFC Playoff bracket:

• Packers/Bucs winner is the #1 seed and gets a Bye Week
• Packers/Bucs loser is the #2 seed
• Rams/Niners are the #3 seed
• Eagles are the #4 seed
• Niners/Rams are the #5 seed
• Vikes are the #6 seed.
• Cards/Cowboys/Saints tiebreaker is the #7 seed

Now before wrapping this monster up for the year, let me try to look and see who will get the overall #1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.  I have the Bears, Falcons and Texans all with  4-13 records and with them in different conferences, it might take the ninth level of tiebreaker to figure out who picks first and who picks third next year.  I went looking at the schedules to see if by any chance they all played one another; they do not.  But in my searching I came across three games on the Chicago Bears schedule that would appear to be “avert-your-eyes awful”.

• On September 25^th, the Bears host the Houston Texans.
• On November 20^th, the Bears visit the Atlanta Falcons
• On November 27^th, the Bears visit the NY Jets
• Yowza!

Finally, I began this essay by ignoring the wisdom of a common adage.  So, let me close with another observation by Casey Stengel that I obviously also ignored here:

“Never make predictions, especially about the future.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Football season is back; there is a full slate of college football games on tap for this weekend; in fact, about a dozen Division 1-A schools played last night.  The return of football has meaning here in Curmudgeon Central; the return of football season means the return of Football Friday.

For new readers who have hopped aboard this vehicle over the past year, let me set the stage:

• From now until the Super Bowl, Friday rants will be about college and NFL football.  There will be at least one “Dark Friday” during the season because I already know of a travel commitment down the line that will preclude such a posting.  However, when I have the time and the access to my keyboard, Fridays will be devoted to football.
• I will try each week to present a Six-Pack of picks either against the spread or using the Total Line for games.  I will also keep a running score for the season to show how decidedly bad my picking skills are.  I will also look to see if I can find a Money Line parlay or two each week and keep track of those imaginary wagers separately.

With those two items about schedule and content in mind, the individual rants will follow a formula:

• First will be a review of the previous week’s imaginary Six-Pack wagers and Money Line parlays.
• Then I will review the progress of the football season for the Division III Linfield College Wildcats.  I have no affiliation with the school whatsoever, but I have followed their football program for about the last 20 years since I learned that their last losing season in football was in 1956.  I know of no other school or franchise that can match 65 consecutive winning seasons in football.  [Aside: Linfield did not play any football in 2020 due to COVID.]
• After that, there will be college football comments followed by a look at some of the games on the schedule for that weekend.  I will also keep track of the teams in contention for my Brothel Defense of the Year Award.  That award goes to the team that gives up the most points per game for the year; everyone scores on the Brothel Defense…
• Starting in late October/early November I will begin to identify teams I want to place in an imaginary thing I call the SHOE Tournament.  SHOE is an acronym standing for Steaming Heap Of Excrement; what I want to do is identify the worst team of the year.  So, I pick my worst 8 teams and put them in an imaginary tournament where the winner goes home, and the loser must play on until there is an ultimate loser – – the SHOE Team.
• Then there will be NFL commentary followed by comments on the games for the weekend.

So, let me get started for this first week by noting the obvious that there was no Six-Pack from last week to review nor did Linfield College play a game last weekend.  However, the Wildcats will open their season tomorrow with a cross-country journey to Montgomery, AL to take on the Huntingdon Hawks.  Last year, Huntingdon was 8-3 for the season and was the conference champion in the USA South Athletic Conference.  Last year, Linfield was 11-1 for the season losing only in the third round of the Division III national playoffs and the Wildcats won their Northwest Conference title for the 11^th time in the last 12 seasons.  Go Wildcats!

College Football Comments:

Nick Saban got a new extended contract from the University of  Alabama.  It runs through the end of the 2030 football season and will pay Saban a total of $93.6M over that time period.  In case you are wondering, Saban will be 79 years old when this extension expires.  Someone looked at the terms of the contract and came up with this interesting comparison:

• Nick Saban will make $29,315 per day in the first year of his contract.
• Instate tuition plus room and board at Alabama for the 2022/23 academic year is only $26,326.

One  more Nick Saban note if I may.  More than a few times, a football coach who has failed in a position or maybe one who has been terminated in an embarrassing way has gone to Alabama as an assistant under Saban.  It seems as if time in Tuscaloosa with Saban is like the fountain at Lourdes because it seems to cleanse the unsuccessful or embarrassed assistant and puts him on a path to get a new gig.  I mention this because I read earlier this week that Jon Gruden wants to get back into the coaching game after being fired for sending “shameful emails”.

• Memo to Jon Gruden:  You must have Coach Saban’s phone number somewhere.

Northwestern 31 Nebraska 28:  The Huskers’ offense looked good in the first half; the defense – – not so much.  Early in the third quarter, Nebraska led 28-17 and seemed to have the game in hand.  Then they call for an onside kick that Northwestern recovered and had a short field.  That led to a quick TD that put Northwestern back in the game.  At that point the Huskers’ offense vaporized and from that point on, here are the results of Nebraska offensive possessions:

• Punt
• Punt
• INT
• Punt
• Punt
• INT
• Total net  yards on those 6 possessions = 85 yards

Meanwhile, the Huskers’ inability on defense to stop the run or to tackle efficiently came to the fore.  Northwestern – – probably not an offensive juggernaut – – wound up gaining 528 yards on offense.

I had Scott Frost on the coaching hot seat in my College Football Pre-season analysis about two weeks ago; He gets a breather on his schedule for the next two weeks with North Dakota and Georgia Southern on tap.  But on September 17, Nebraska plays Oklahoma and if the Sooners win that game in a blowout, Scott Frost may not make it until 1 October as the head coach in Lincoln.

Nebraska football has not been the same since Tom Osborne hung up the whistle.  Osborne was the coach in Lincoln from 1973 through 1997; his record over that stretch was a gaudy 255-49-3.  His teams won 3 national championships and won or shared 13 Conference titles.  Since his departure, Nebraska has had five head coaches – including Scott Frost – and none have satisfied the Husker fans because none have come close to Osborne’s level of success.  Indeed, the Huskers’ ran Bo Pelini out of town notwithstanding a record over 6.5 seasons of 67-27; that was just not good enough for fans to put up with Pelini’s “prickly personality”.

This is Scott Frost’s fifth season at Nebraska and at this moment his combined record is 15-30 and the best conference finish in those seasons has been tied for 5^th place in the Big-10 West.  Sure, things might turn around in Lincoln this year – – but I am not betting on it.

• [Aside:  You have surely read that there was a computer/Internet glitch at the stadium in Dublin for this game meaning people could not pay for things or get money from ATMs, so the catering company gave away free food and beer for a coup-le of hours.  #1 son and his wife were at the game; I texted them to be careful because “free beer” is not necessarily a good thing at a sporting event.  Their text in reply said that if fans had been deprived of food and beer for the game, that alone would have started a riot.  Fortunately, there was no violence at the game – – unless you count what happened to the Nebraska football team on the field.]

By the way, last  year Nebraska was a 7-point favorite over Illinois in the first game of the year and Nebraska lost outright by more than a TD.  This year, Nebraska closed as an 11.5-point favorite over Northwestern and lost outright again.  Just another negative indicator…

Vandy 63  Hawaii 10:  I know; it is only Week Zero in the college football season, but that score indicates to me that Hawaii is going to be very bad this season.  Yes, Vandy is an SEC team and Hawaii is an also-ran in the Mountain West Conference; yes, Vandy was supposed to win this game.  But no, Vandy was not supposed to romp and stomp its way to 63 points including 35 points in the third quarter alone.  How bad was this beating?

• Vandy gained 404 yards on the ground
• Vandy gained a total of 601  yards on offense.

To put that in perspective, I am confident that there will be at least three SEC games on Vandy’s schedule this  year where their total rushing yards over the three games will not equal 404 yards.

College Football Games This Week:

(Fri nite) Illinois at Indiana – 4.5 (48.5):  Two also-rans in the Big-10 get their seasons started.  Hi ho…

(Fri nite) Va Tech – 6.5 at Old Dominion (48):  Really?  I know the Hokies are “rebuilding” but only 6.5 points over Old Dominion?  Over the last 4 seasons in C-USA, Old Dominion has posted a combined record of 16-33; the Monarchs have jumped to the Sun Belt Conference for this season, and this is their first game.  And Va Tech is less than a touchdown favorite?

(Fri nite) Temple at Duke – 9.5 (50):  Both of these teams are going to be bad this year.  The winner of this contest will be the “less worse” team…

(Fri nite) TCU – 13.5 at Colorado (57):  The spread here opened the week at 7.5 points and has exploded to this level as the week wore on.  You can even find the spread at 14 points at one Internet sportsbook.

Utah – 2.5 at Florida (51):  Utah was the PAC-12 rep to the Rose Bowl last year; Florida was good but not great in the SEC last year.  This is an important recognition game for Utah; they are seeking to garner attention east of the Mississippi River with a good showing against a well-recognized SEC team in a difficult venue.  I won’t make a selection in this game – – but I will watch it.

BYU – 11 at USF (58.5):  BYU won 10 games last year and I read a report somewhere that said the entire defensive unit is back for this year.  USF has been miserable for the past 3 seasons posting a record of 7-26 over that span.  I like BYU to win and cover here; put this in this week’s abbreviated Six-Pack.

Notre Dame at Ohio St. – 17 (59):  Ohio State beat people last year by outscoring them with a potent offense; the Buckeyes’ defense was not nearly so good.  Has that been fixed over the offseason?  If not, that line is more than fat; it is obese.  I will not make a selection, but this is a game to watch to provide data for future games involving both teams.

Colorado St. at Michigan – 31 (62):  Jim Harbaugh and the schedulers in Ann Arbor should be ashamed…

UNC at Appalachian St. – 1.5 (57):  The spread opened with UNC as a 2.5-point favorite and has moved toward Appalachian St. steadily all week long.  I know it is a road game for the Tar Heels, but I am a bit surprised at this line and this line movement.

Army at Coastal Carolina – 2.5 (54.5):  Army will run the ball at least 80 % of the time; Coastal will run the ball more than half the time.  That makes for a running clock and less time for scoring drives.  Ergo, I like this game to stay UNDER 54.5; put this in this week’s abbreviated Six-Pack.

Tulsa – 6.5 at Wyoming (44.5):  The spread opened with Tulsa as a 1-point favorite, and it jumped quickly to 3.5 points and has continued to rise.  I have no idea why, but that sort of line movement makes the game interesting to observe.

Rice at USC – 32 (62):  This is another mismatch that should never have been scheduled.

Bowling Green at UCLA – 23.5 (57):  The Bruins are not exactly a powerhouse, but Bowling Green has not won more than 4 games in a season playing a MAC schedule since 2015.

Oregon at Georgia – 17 (53):  The Dawgs are the defending national champions but an awful lot of their superb defensive players from last year have moved on to the NFL.  Also, their defensive coordinator from last year, Dan Lanning, has moved on; Lanning is now the head coach at – – Oregon.  As the PAC-12 struggles for recognition and relevance, Oregon is one of its top-shelf programs; they must not be blown out here.

Utah St. at Alabama – 41.5 (62):  The only way this game is important is if Utah State wins outright.  As of this morning, you can get Utah St. on the Money Line at +25,000.  Good luck…

Cincy at Arkansas – 7 (53):  Cincy was last year’s Cinderella making it to the CFP with a 13-0 record until they ran into Alabama.  Last year Cincy punched over its head and beat Notre Dame in South Bend.  Arkansas is neither Notre Dame nor Alabama, but Cincy is not the same squad either; they lost plenty of starters in the NFL Draft.

Houston – 4 at UT – San Antonio (61.5):  I like Houston this year; I think they could win 11 games.  Give me Houston to win and cover here on the road; put this in this week’s abbreviated Six-Pack.

La-Monroe at Texas – 41 (66.5):  The spread opened at 37.5 points, and it has climbed all week to reach this level.  When the Longhorns win, you will hear lots of screeching that “Texas is back!”  When you  hear that remember that Texas lost its last 7 Big-12 games in a row last year including a 57-56 loss to Kansas.  I said KANSAS!  So, if beating up on a team that aspires someday to achieve mediocrity means “Texas is back!”, it may be a situation of diminished expectations for the Longhorn faithful.

(Mon nite) Clemson – 23.5 at Ga Tech (50.5):  The spread opened at 18 points and has risen steadily.  The oddsmakers obviously believe that Clemson is back after a down season; the betting public obviously is even more convinced on that point than are the oddsmakers.  It may be interesting to tune into this game for “future reference”.

Let me review this week’s abbreviated Six-Pack – – which should be called a Three-Pack:

• Houston – 4 over UT-San Antonio
• Army/Coastal Carolina UNDER 54.5
• BYU – 11 over USF.

And here are two Money Line Parlays of interest:

• BYU @ minus-400
• Ohio State @ minus 750
• Georgia @ minus 750
• Va Tech @ minus 245        $100 wager wins $126.09

And …

• Arkansas @ minus-250
• San Diego St. @ minus-230
• James Madison @ minus-215  $100 wager wins $194.30

Finally, I have resumed Football Friday because the calendar tells me to do so.  Let me close this first one of the season with some observations about “the calendar” from folks you know:

“The calendar and the clock are both set by football season and the offseason.”  [Tom Coughlin]

And …

“My wife’s jealousy is getting ridiculous.  The other day, she looked at my calendar and wanted to know who May was.”  [Rodney Dangerfield]

And …

“Football teams represent cities and colleges and schools.  The people have built great stadiums, and the game is culturally intertwined with our calendar.  We don’t go back to college for the college.  We go back for a football game, and,  yes, we even call that ‘homecoming’.”  [Frank Deford]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The NFL teams have cut their rosters down to 53 players.  Simplistically, one might think all they have to do now is to get ready for the first game of the year starting a week from today.   Not quite so…  If you look at the agate section of the sports section today, you will find that teams are busy claiming players who were cut by Team A and signing them onto Team B thereby causing Team B to release some player who had been on their squad.  Or Team B might claim them and sign them onto Team B’s practice squad.  And so, I thought I would spend a bit of time today trying to explain what a practice squad is and what happens with the players assigned there.

The practice squad is what the name implies; it is a cadre of players who are attached to an NFL team more loosely than roster players.  Practice squad guys do indeed practice with the team and are often involved in simulating the team’s upcoming opponent.  And of course, practice squad players can be reassigned to the 53-man roster by a team in case of injuries and the benefit to the team is that the practice squad guy has lots of familiarity with the team’s system(s).

Prior to the COVID outbreak in 2020, the practice squad was limited to 10 players per team but that was expanded to 16 players for the 2020 season with the idea that COVID infections could force a team to quarantine a bunch of the roster without warning.  The league did not want to cancel any regular season games – – and did not have to – – and the expanded practice squad for 2020 was sort of an insurance policy against such an event.

The new CBA – completed prior to the 2020 season – called for an expansion of practice squads from 10 players to 12 players and then on to 14 players in the course of the new CBA.  However, after the 2020 season, the league presented the NFLPA with a modification to the CBA to keep the limit at 16 players and the union accepted that addendum.

To explain the details of practice squad limits and player salaries, I have to give you the definition of an “NFL accrued season”:

• A player earns an accrued season when he is on the roster of a team at full-pay – – not practice squad pay – – for six games.

With that definition in mind, there are restrictions on the composition of any team’s practice squad.  Heaven forbid that a team could just sign 16 free agents to the squad and let it go from there; that would be far too simple and understandable.  So, here are team constraints on the 16-man practice squad:

• Any player who does not have 1 accrued season is eligible to be placed on a practice squad.
• If a player has only 1 accrued season AND he was on the active list for fewer than nine games in that accrued season, he is eligible for a practice squad.
• A team’s practice squad may contain no more than 10 players who have earned more than 2 accrued seasons.
• A team’s practice squad may contain no more than 6 players who have “no limitations to their number of earned accrued seasons.”

[Aside:  Why do I think these constraints were put together by lawyers and not coaches and players?]

            Now that you know all about what sorts of players are on practice squads, the question is, how are they paid.  As you might suspect, there are rules that govern that issue too.

• Players with two or fewer accrued NFL seasons earn at least $11,500 per week, which equals $207,000 for a player on a practice squad for an entire regular season.
• Players with two or more accrued seasons make a minimum of $15,400 per week amounting to $277,200 for a whole season.
• If a practice squad player is promoted to the active roster, he earns the prorated minimum salary for a player with his years of experience.

The fundamental difference between a “roster player” and a “practice squad player” is the strength of the attachment between the player and the team.  Practice squad players are free agents; if Team A needs to sign a tight end because of injuries on Team A, and if Team B has a tight end on its practice squad who had been graded highly by Team A’s scouts, then Team A can sign that tight end to its active roster.  Note, the tampering rules associated with poaching players on the active roster do not apply.  And if a player is signed away from his current practice squad status to the active roster of another team, that players is guaranteed three game checks at the minimum salary for his number of accrued seasons.

As if all those procedural strings were not enough to turn management of a practice squad into an undertaking only slightly less challenging than 3-D chess, here are a couple more random rules:

• Teams can elevate a player three times in the regular season.  After that, they must sign the player to the 53-man roster. This is a new wrinkle, in the past, a team could only elevate a player twice throughout the regular season or postseason.
• Teams can protect up to four practice players each week from being signed by another team. There is no limit on how many times a player can be protected throughout the season.
• A practice squad player signed by another team must be signed to the new team’s 53-man roster.   Practice squad to practice squad signings are forbidden.

So, as you read and hear about a player from Podunk State signing onto the practice squad for an NFL team, keep in mind that there are folks in the pro personnel department of that team who are concerned with following all these rules and regulations.  It is not just a handshake deal between player and team.

Switching to the other kind of football – – the one played in the English Premier League …  Last season was very successful for Bournemouth under the direction of manager, Scott Parker; the club had been relegated from the EPL to the Championship League in 2020, but last year Bournemouth finished second in the Championship to qualify for a return to the Premiership.

The team has played 5 games in this season winning 1 losing 3 and earning a tie in 1 game.  That is not a great record, but it does have the team just outside the relegation zone so early in the EPL season.  Nonetheless, the team fired Parker after the fourth game.  No, he was not caught up in something scandalous which was my first thought when I read about his firing.  The reason is that in that fourth game of the season, Bournemouth lost to Liverpool by the outrageous score of 9 to Nil.

Obviously, the team focus shifted from “What have you done for us lately?” to “What have you done to us this week?”

Finally, after yesterday’s rant mentioned the over-abundance of stats delivered by baseball broadcasters these days, I received this email from a former colleague who is a long-term reader and an LA Dodgers’ fan:

“Jack–

“Another type of stat I can do without:

“’When the count is 2-1 on Joe Flabeetz and the next pitch is a 92 MPH cutter on the outside part of the plate and the temperature is between 70 and 75 degrees, he puts the ball in play 8.5% of the time.’

“Jim”

Can we have an AMEN! for Brother Jim here…???

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about Aaron Judge being on pace to eclipse Roger Maris’ home run total in a single season.  Back then Judge was on pace to hit 64 home runs.  As of this morning Judge has hit 51 home runs putting him on a pace to hit 63 for the season.  It will be an interesting chase, but his “margin for error” has shrunk.

Since only two of the six MLB division races are even marginally in doubt, it probably behooves baseball fans to focus on some of the “individual dramas” that will unfold down the stretch to the 2022 season.  Aaron Judge’s chase of the Roger Maris standard is one of three that I think will be interesting.

• Albert Pujols:  He has said he will retire at the end of the 2022 season; assuming that to be the case, he has 32 games left in his MLB career.   As of this morning, he has hit a total of 694 home runs, which puts him in 5^th place on the all-time list.  A-Rod hit 696 home runs; Pujols has an excellent chance to pass him and be 4^th on the all-time list.  Moreover, he has a shot at hitting 700 home runs for his career – – a mark reached only by Barry Bonds, Henry Aaron and Babe Ruth.  Thirty-two games and counting…
• Paul Goldschmidt:  As of this morning, he is in an excellent position to win the National League Triple Crown.  The Triple Crown is a big deal; the last time anyone achieved that feat in the National League was in 1933 when Chuck Klein (Phillies) did it.  The last player to win the AL Triple Crown was Miguel Cabrera in 2012.  As of this morning, Goldschmidt is hitting  .333 putting him .007 ahead of Freddie Freeman.  Goldschmidt is  tied with Pete Alonso with 105 RBIs and Goldschmidt is second in the NL in home runs trailing Kyle Schwarber by 2 home runs.

There will be no nail biting while wondering who is going to win the NL West or the AL West.  But the efforts of Messrs. Judge, Pujols and Goldschmidt should provide events worth following in September.

The reason there will be no drama in the NL West is that the Dodgers have maintained a torrid pace for the 2022 season.  The Yankees started out 2022 on a roll and at times projected to be a 120-game winner for this year.  However, the Yankees hit a rough patch after the All-Star Game and now only project to win 98 games.  The Dodgers have had no such “slump”; right now, the Dodgers are on place to win 113 games and currently lead the second place Padres by 19.5 games.  Assuming that the Dodgers keep their foot on the gas pedal, they re on track to set a franchise record:

• The Dodgers’ franchise record for wins in a single season going all the way back to 1884 is 106 wins.
• Dodgers’ teams have hit that mark twice (in 2021 and in 2019) indicating that the Dodgers have been dominant in recent times.
• At the current pace in 2022, the Dodgers could pass that mark with about two weeks left to go.

[Aside #1:  When we are all driving electric cars, will we still call that thing on the car floor the “gas pedal?]

[Aside #2:  The Dodgers might challenge the 2001 Mariners’ record of 116 wins in a season but would need to win more than three-quarters of their remaining games to do so.  Possible – – but not likely…]

And since I mentioned the San Diego Padres in passing above, let me insert here something from Gregg Drinnan’s blog, Keeping Score:

“THE BEST LAID PLANS: When the San Diego Padres’ marketing team scheduled its 2022 promotions, it put a Fernando Tatis Jr. bobblehead game on the calendar for Sept. 7. But then Tatis Jr. tested positive for a PED and drew an 80-game suspension. That took care of the bobblehead promotion. So now that Sept. 7 come-on will involve a Juan Soto City Connect shirt. And that’s what you call a great job of stick-handling around a sticky situation.”

One more baseball thing for today…  Am I the only one who is fed up to my earbrows with irrelevant “advanced stats” from baseball broadcasts and telecasts?  This has really gotten a bit out of hand.  I do not care even a little bit about the velocity of the ball as it comes off the bat nor do I care about the launch angle of a batted ball.  I have a passing interest in the length of a home run that made it to the seats, but the exit velocity of a single to right field is stats for the sake of stats.  Here is what I want to know from broadcasters/telecasters about batted balls:

1. Was it fair or foul?
2. Was it a hit or an out?

That’s it; that’s the list!

Finally, let me close today with two small capsule movie descriptions that I found in The Illustrated Dictionary of Snark:

“West Side Story:  The whitest gangs ever who break into song every time they’re supposed to fight.”

And …

“High Noon:  Three men come into town to kill a sheriff with no facial expressions or any discernible acting ability.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In US politics today, it is common for someone to say they are on the right side of history while an opponent is on the wrong side of history.  There is an adage that relates to that circumstance:

“Some folks are wise, and some are otherwise.”

I fear that I could be “otherwise” today, but I have decided to take the chance.  Prudence would advise not to take a middle ground position regarding the allegation that former Bills’ punter, Matt Araiza raped an underage girl and then subjected her to a gang rape.  My problem is that I do not have sufficient information to take either side of this story in complete comfort.

So, before I get too far out on a limb here, let me make a couple of unequivocal statements:

• If Matt Araiza did what he is alleged to have done to a 17-year-old girl, he should be charged, convicted and then sentenced to a LONG term in the dankest prison in the country that does not cross the line into cruel and unusual punishment.
• If his accuser has fabricated all or significant parts of this allegation, she should be tried and punished in a civil proceeding and publicly shamed for what she has done.
• And given the reports I have heard and read on this matter, there are too many “loose ends” for me to take a position on where the parties stand.

As I understand it, the allegation is that a 17-year-old girl went to a Halloween party where she alleges she was given an alcoholic drink – possibly with other stuff in it – and was then raped outdoors by Matt Araiza who subsequently took her to a room in a house and threw her on a bed where several other males gang-raped the girl.  As I said above, if that is what happened, Matt Araiza deserves harsh treatment at the hands of the law.  Moreover, if that is what happened, I have no interest in being on Matt Araiza’s side in this dispute; so, my predisposition is to side with the young woman here.  But…

The alleged event happened at a Halloween party which I am comfortable thinking happened at the end of October 2021.  The young woman through her attorney says she reported this attack to the San Diego police and that she received a rape examination at a medical  facility in San Diego proximal to the alleged rape.  A NY Times report said that detectives from the San Diego Police Sex Crimes unit “set up a tape-recorded phone call between the victim and Araiza during which he confirmed having had sex with her and told her she should get tested for sexually transmitted diseases before changing his tone when she asked more pointed questions.”

It is the timing here that confuses me.  The rape examination would have taken place in early November 2021 and the police would have had access to the results of that examination surely before Thanksgiving of last year.  At some time between then and now, there was the recorded set up phone call – – and yet, there are no criminal charges filed against Araiza.  And that makes little to no sense to me because if all this reporting is completely accurate, the San Diego  authorities have Araiza’s admission that he had sex with a minor and that took place about 10 months ago.  And that lengthy delay makes me wonder what is causing the delay.

Moreover, it was on July 31, 2022 – – approximately 9 months after the alleged gang-rape – – that the victim’s attorney advised the Bills that his client was filing a civil action against Araiza.  Not surprisingly, Araiza’s attorney asserts that this is nothing but a “cash-grab” by the woman now that Araiza is an NFL player; that is no surprise at all; that is a reflex comment by an accused athlete/celebrity these days.  However, the timeline of events would allow me to construct a hypothetical argument that such could be the case here.

That gets me back to my original position; I need to know more about what sort of evidence exists here before I commit to either side of this accusation.  I am NOT in a position to blame the victim and label her a gold-digger.   But I am not ready to convict Matt Araiza – even in the court of public opinion – until I know more about why the San Diego law enforcement folks have seemingly slow-played this matter.

• Is this a matter of inertia or ineptitude on the part of the authorities – – or – –
• Is there a hole – or holes – in the allegation itself?
• Or both…?

Before anyone accuses me taking this allegation too lightly, let me assure you that I am not taking it lightly at all.  I do recall, however, that two very similar allegations proved to be concocted false accusations:

1. Recall the Rolling Stone magazine report of a gang rape on the UVa campus.  The article was published in 2014 and the event supposedly took place in 2012 – – except that it did not.  Here is a link to Wikipedia about that incident.
2. Recall the “Duke lacrosse case” from 2006 where a dancer alleged she was gang-raped by members of the Duke lacrosse team after she performed at a party they threw.  The problem is that gang-rape did not happen.  Here is a link to Wikipedia about that incident.

While I am loathe to take a position on this matter until more information emerges, I do think it is interesting to see how the NFL – – and the Buffalo Bills more specifically – – have dealt with this matter.  The NFL has no written “jurisdiction” here; the alleged incident happened about 6 months before Araiza was drafted by the Bills in the 2022 Draft.  The NFL’s rules and policies as outlined in the CBA only apply to people associated with the NFL and not to the general public.  So, the NFL has wisely kept quiet about this matter to date knowing that as soon as anyone comes out and takes a position on the matter there will be questions about how this compares to the Deshaun Watson saga that the league is only too happy to have put in the rearview mirror.

• Is one “gang-rape accusation” worse than/equal to or better than two dozen accusations of sexual assault on massage therapists?

Anyone who would touch that question with a 10-foot pole needs a 20-foot pole.  But the resolution of the Deshaun Watson saga is far too fresh in many people’s minds that it will become a point of contention if the door is opened.

The Bills claim that they did their own due diligence regarding Araiza prior to the Draft and were convinced that he had no outrageous character flaws.  They may have been right in that conclusion – – or they could have been hideously wrong.  So, the Bills chose to deal with the situation by removing Araiza from their roster thereby brushing aside the distractions that would have to come from keeping him on the team.  And that decision and action by the Bills reinforces the perception that in the sports world:

• Greater talent => Greater value to a team => Greater tolerance for “impropriety”

Deshaun Watson’s play as of the end of the 2020 season indicated that he might be a franchise QB in the NFL for the next 10 years or possibly more.  Matt Araiza is a punter.  Franchise QBs are hard to find; teams go through punters like grass goes through geese.  When Watson’s suspension was announced, the owners of the Browns spoke glowingly of “second chances” and “atonement”; I have difficulty believing that sort of spectacle would happen in the case of a punter.

I have often said that the concept of due process only applies to the US jurisprudence system and has no place in the court of public opinion.  I continue to maintain that stance even though I do want the legal due process to further inform me about what my public opinion position ought to be.

Finally, given the state of uncertainty and the smarmy nature of the allegations involved here, let me close with these words from the great philosopher, Yogi Berra:

“If the world were perfect, it wouldn’t be.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I want to spend a some time today talking about the PGA and LIV Golf.  Just so there is no misunderstanding:

• I do not play golf.
• I have never attended a golf match/tournament.
• I only watch golf on TV when it is the final weekend of a major tournament.
• I appreciate the skill shown by professional golfers but find the game less than interesting.

I think it is to some extent because of my detached view of the sport that I can look at the spitting match that is ongoing between the PGA and the Saudi folks behind the LIV Golf enterprise in a detached fashion.  I really do not care about the rectitude of either organization; it would not bother me for a millisecond if both organizations dried up and blew away on a windy day.  If someone else favors one of the antagonists here, please maintain your favoritism because I do not even care enough to try to dissuade you from your selection.

Let me review the bidding here to lead up to a question that I have related to all this:

• LIV Golf showed up with outrageously deep pockets that it used to sign up pro golfers to its tour events and then offered huge purses for those tournaments where everyone who entered got a part of the purse.
• PGA told its members that if they signed up and played in LIV events, they would forfeit their PGA membership status.
• Now there is an anti-trust lawsuit filed against the PGA that will surely take years to resolve.
• In the immediate term. Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy held a “players-only meeting” with PGA golfers urging them to stay with the PGA and told them that Woods and McElroy had a vison for expanding golf into an arena sport and that they would be seeking investors to back such a new venture.
• Soon after that meeting, the PGA announced that purses would be increased for multiple tour events and that there would be tournaments with minimum payoff guarantees for all entrants starting next year.

If I were a PGA player, my first reaction would be that this is great news as I look forward to the next couple of golf seasons.  However, here in Curmudgeon Central, the standard operating procedure is to look at situations such as this one through the other end of the telescope.  And from that perspective, here is the question all current PGA players should be asking:

• Where did all this “new money” come from?

In chemistry, there is a principle called the conservation of matter meaning that in a chemical reaction matter is neither created nor destroyed.  In economics, there is a corresponding concept about money.  It is neither created nor destroyed – – and it can only be spent once.  Ergo, since the PGA “found” this extra money to add to purses and to assure guaranteed payouts for certain tour events, the question is:

• What was that money doing before it got allocated there?

There was no new revenue stream that kicked in over the past month or two and the PGA cannot manufacture money.

• So where did this financial largesse come from?
• And more importantly from a PGA tour player perspective, what would the PGA have used that “found money” for had it not been for the threat of the LIV Golf Tour poaching players from the PGA?

Remember, I have no skin in this game; I do not care even a little bit if either side were to prevail here or if they find a way to coexist over time.  But, until someone shows me how all this extra purse money for PGA events suddenly materialized, I have to think that the PGA overseers have been holding back on the purses that they offer to their members.  So, maybe the LIV Golf folks unintentionally provided a monetary benefit even to those PGA players who chose not to jump to the LIV Tour…

Now as to the arena sport envisioned by woods and McIlroy, the idea is described as showcasing top-shelf golfers on a virtual course playing in teams of three in “tech-infused venues”.  As I said above, I do not particularly like “live golf” and until I see what this “virtual course golf” is about, I have to think it will not be very interesting to me.  My basis for this reaction is e-sports on TV; I lost interest in the first event I tried to experience in about 20 minutes and have not acquired any interest subsequently.  Maybe dedicated golf fans will take to the new game/format quickly and in great numbers.  If so, this could be a huge success; if not, this could be golf’s version of the late – but not lamented – Alliance of American Football.

Changing sports …  The Washington Nationals have the worst record in MLB this year by a 5-game deficit.  So, I was only mildly surprised to come across this stat:

• Yesterday, 28 August 2022, the Nats beat the Reds 3-2 and the Nats’ starting pitcher – Patrick Corbin – was the winning pitcher.
• The last time the Nats’ starter was the winning pitcher in a game was on 6 July 2022.
• The Nats went 43 games without a starter getting a win.
• The Nats went through 27% of an MLB schedule without a starting pitcher recording a win.

Wow!

Finally, since most of today’s rant had to do with golf, let me close with this observation about the game by humorist, Dave Barry:

“Although golf was originally restricted to wealthy, overweight Protestants, today it’s open to anybody who owns hideous clothing.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

College football fans get to dip their toe in the water this weekend as the season begins with an abbreviated list of games.  In addition to a bunch of games that have precisely zero national interest, the Big-10 begins its conference schedule with a game between Nebraska and Northwestern in Dublin, Ireland.  For the record, the Huskers are a 13-point favorite; the Total Line is 50.5.

• [Aside:  Nebraska was a 7-point favorite in last year’s opening game against Illinois and lost outright.  Just saying …]

Imagine if you will that a “big-time football game” were scheduled to be played in Backwater USA for some reason.  The local press in Backwater – – The Backwater Bugle – – would likely fall over itself to glorify the game and the participants; it could be the big event of the year in town.  Not quite so with sports coverage in Ireland, columnists/reporters there do not contort themselves to be laudatory in such circumstances.  As an example, please take a moment or two to read this piece from The Irish Times about the upcoming game this weekend.  I suggest that it takes a different slant than would The Backwater Bugle.

I would like to think that my commentary here would fall somewhere between “The Bugle” and The Irish Times – – albeit closer to The Irish Times.  As has been the custom here for the past several years, I will try to do a Football Friday rant each week where I am “on the air” for a Friday.  Those offerings will begin in earnest over Labor Day weekend and hit full stride the week after that as the NFL begins its regular season.  Such will be the case until the Super Bowl weekend on February 12, 2023.

But today, the focus in on college football in general and I want to start with my list of major college coaches that are on a hot seat this year.  For the record, I named five coaches in that condition last year; three of them are gone; the other two will be on the list again this year.  Here is my list in alphabetical order:

1. Marcus Arroyo – UNLV:  This one is simple.  He has been on the job for two seasons and his record is 2-16.  That will not feed the bulldog…
2. Geoff Collins – Georgia Tech:  He has been on the job at Tech for 3 seasons and the cumulative record for that time is a less-than laudatory 9-25.  Under previous coach, Paul Johnson, Tech went to bowl games in 9 of his 12 seasons; Coach Collins needs a big improvement this year.
3. Herm Edwards – Arizona St.:  He is the first of the two carry-overs from last season on this list.  There are all sorts of investigations about improper recruiting that supposedly happened during the dark period associated with COVID restrictions.  That’s not good by any means – – but if you are going to “push the envelope”, you should be winning a lot more than the Sun Devils have done in Edwards’ tenure there.
4. Scott Frost – Nebraska:  He is the other carry-over from last season.  He too has gotten crosswise with recruiting irregularities and practice times, and he too has not been a winner; last year’s record was 3-9 and I suspect that his stature as the QB of an “old-time great Nebraska team” saved his job through until this season.  I do not think that status will save him again this year without a bowl invitation.
5. Willie Taggert – FAU:  He spent one year as the coach at Oregon and that stint got him sued by several former players about the brutality of his practices there.  That kind of stain tends to stick on coaches who do not have huge success on the field – – and Taggert does not have much success at all let alone “huge success”.  In 2016, he was the coach at USF and the team went 10-2; notwithstanding that one season, Taggert’s coaching record at five schools is a less-than gaudy 66-73.

In the spirit of full disclosure, there is way too much ground in the college football space for me to follow closely.  Whereas there are 32 NFL teams, there are 130 Division 1-A college teams.  I will not try to predict records for college teams the way I try to will try to do for the NFL in a couple of weeks, and I will focus my attention all season long on the major schools and conferences.  In fact, I tried to think about the Sun Belt conference as a minor conference and tried to name the schools in it.

• I thought there would be 12 schools there; actually, there are 14.
• I did name 5 of them correctly – – but I had three on my list that belonged elsewhere.

With that as background, I did try to focus a bit on the PAC-12 this year simply because the defection of USC and UCLA put the PAC-12 as an entity under a microscope.  And in case you missed this, the PAC-12 teams have not won a bowl game since 2019; they were 0-5 last year and 0-2 in 2020.  Here is a thumbnail sketch for seven of the current PAC-12 teams:

• Arizona:  The Wildcats have been awful for the last two seasons with a cumulative record then of 1-16.  If they win only 3 games this year, it will be a significant improvement.
• Colorado:  The Buffaloes’ offense in 2021 would have to have been 50% more efficient to be listed as “bleak”; they only scored more than 20 points 4 times last  year.  That can’t happen again – – can it?
• Oregon:  The Ducks lost their coach, Mario Cristobal, who went back to his alma mater in Miami.  He is replaced by Dan Lanning who was the defensive coordinator at Georgia for the last several years leading great defenses there.  But this is his first time as the head coach.  Should be interesting to watch.
• Stanford:  David Shaw’s teams have been going through a rough patch over the last several years going 11-19 since 2018.  He is too good a coach for that to continue, right?
• USC:  Lincoln Riley moved from Norman, OK to Los Angeles CA.  I have spent some time in both cities; let me just say there is a different vibe between the two.  I am sure the USC alums are expecting a return to glory under Riley.
• Utah:  Kyle Whittingham has been the coach at Utah since 2005 when he took over the program from Urban Meyer.  The Utes were in the Mountain West at the time; Whittingham guided them through the transition into the PAC-12 in 2011 and last year the Utes went to the Rose Bowl for the first time in school history – – and the football program dates to 1905.

[Aside:  Speaking of Urban Meyer, he is back on FOX as a studio analyst for CFB games.  I wonder if any of his colleagues there will ask him about how much fun it was to be the coach in Jax for a couple of months.]

• Washington:  There is a new coaching staff in charge of the Huskies this year; Jimmy Lake was fired in mid-season last year after a shoving incident between lake and one of his players.  The new guy, Kalen DeBoer, comes to Seattle from two years at Fresno St.  That is a step up for him.

One of the unpleasant features of college football is the “Cupcake Scheduling Practices” of many of the big-time programs.  Too many of them schedule games that are nothing more than glorified scrimmages.  So, what I would like to do here is to highlight some of the schools that have assembled a relatively difficult out-of-conference schedule:

• Florida:  They will play Utah and Florida St. out of conference.
• Georgia Tech:  They will play Georgia and Ole Miss out of conference.
• West Virginia:  They will play nearby rivals Pitt and Va Tech out of conference.

Compare those scheduling choices with some of these “Cupcake Schedules”:

• Michigan:  They will play Colorado St., Hawaii and UConn out of conference
• Minnesota:  They will play Colorado, New Mexico St. and Western Illinois out of conference.
• Duke:  They will play Kansas, North Carolina A&T, Northwestern and Temple out of conference.
• UCLA:  They will play Alabama St., Bowling Green and South Alabama out of conference.

Here are two teams that appear on paper to be poised for good seasons:

1. Houston:  The Cougars made it to the AAC Championship Game last year losing there to Cincy – – a team that was invited to the CFP.  No shame there.  This year, most of the players from that team will still be in school.  This will be the final year for Houston (and Cincy and UCF) in the AAC before moving to the big 12 in 2023.
2. Kentucky:  The Wildcats have been to bowl games in each of the last 6 seasons and finished 2021 with a 10-3 record.  Half of the starters on that team will be back this year.  The only problem is that Kentucky is in the SEC with the likes of some monster football programs.

In Las Vegas, one of the futures bets  you can make is on the total number of wins that any college team will have in the 2022 season.  It is interesting to look at how the oddsmakers have assessed the upcoming season by looking at the teams with the highest number of wins projected and the ones with the lowest.  Here are some of them:

• Alabama – – 10.5 wins
• Clemson – – 10.5 wins
• Georgia – — 10.5 wins
• Ohio St. – – 10.5 wins
• Oklahoma – – 9.5 wins
• USC – – 9.5 wins
• Boise St. – – 9 wins
• Cincy – – 9 wins
• Houston – – 9 wins  (I really like the OVER here)
• Utah – – 9 wins

And these …

• Arizona – – 3 wins
• Colorado – – 3 wins
• Duke – – 3 wins  (I like the OVER here – – check the non-conference schedule above)
• FIU – – 3 wins
• New Mexico St. – – 3 wins
• Akron – – 2.5 wins
• Kansas – – 2.5 wins
• La-Monroe – – 2.5 wins
• New Mexico – – 2.5 wins
• Temple – – 2.5 wins
• UConn – – 2.5 wins
• UMass – – 2.5 wins
• Vandy – – 2.5 wins

Before closing out this synoptic view of the upcoming season, I must take a moment to say that the events of the past 6 months or so have changed college football to its core.  It has been decades since anyone could realistically believe that college football was an “amateur sport” played by “student-athletes” who participated in the games for the love of the games and the glory of their schools.  College football is a major business; television rights fees for the Big-10 conference alone are larger than the ones for MLS and the NHL.  Players are now able to profit from selling their name/image/and likeness to others who seek their endorsement.

• College football has become semi-pro football – – and it is not going to go back to what some people wished it was.

Dwight Perry had this cogent observation in his column in the Seattle Times last weekend:

“With NIL deals in place, shouldn’t the NCAA replace the term ‘student-athlete’ with ‘athlete-entrepreneur?’”

Let me pose some questions and offer a few thoughts on where college football is headed and maybe how it should be viewed in the future.  First, the toothpaste is out of the tube, and it is not going back.  “Follow the money” is the best advice one can get regarding the whys and wherefores of future college football decisions.  And that leads me to wonder why college athletics continues to be a tax-free enterprise?  It is a business just like General Forge and Foundry was a business in Kurt Vonnegut novels and just like the Grace L. Ferguson Airline and Storm Door Company was a business in Mad Magazine.  Business enterprises – especially ones with billions in revenue – should be taxed.  The Congress just passed a new law imposing a minimum tax on corporations; maybe college football is not “incorporated” but it is a revenue generating machine that ought to be paying taxes.

• Memo to US Congress:  Get working on this right away – – if you have the “onions” to do so…

The CFP remains at 4 teams playing 3 games to determine the national champion for a year.  The CFP poohbahs said that would stay the same until 2026 – – but that pronouncement was before the stratospheric TV deal struck by the Big-10.  Expanding the CFP to 8 teams will slightly more than double the games to be put on TV and that means big money for the CFP beneficiaries.  Do not be surprised when that decision to stand pat at 4 teams is “revisited”.

The morphing of college football from the “student-athlete era” to the current semi-pro status means that players really need no longer pretend to be college students who live in dormitories and go to classes where they will receive grades and an education.  Some will of course choose to do that, but others can now come out of the shadows and proclaim themselves as mercenaries – – as they have been for the last 25-40 years.  Moreover, the “transfer portal” only enhances the reality of mercenary behavior allowing players to move from school to school with aplomb.

As pressure mounts for players to “get a piece of the pie” from all this revenue they are generating, it is going to create an adversarial relationship between management (the schools/conferences) and workers (the players).  So, what is the over/under on how many years it will be until we hear about a threatened strike by college players if they don’t get a better deal?  It will eventually happen; it always does.  The question is how soon…

Since the linkage between “playing football” (or men’s basketball for that matter) and pursuing a real or imagined degree from a university has been severed, is there any reason to limit “eligibility” to 4 years?  What if an athlete has a sweet NIL deal and wants to stay on at his school for 5 or 6 or 7 years and live on the NIL money?  Remember, he is a mercenary not a “student athlete” anymore.  Moreover, if the charade of being a college student is no longer in vogue, what does “eligibility” even mean?  I guess it would mean that the player is not a felon at large – – but not much more than that.

Finally, I like to have fun with players’ names; and so, I will close today with two that I have already run across for this  year:

• Decoldest Crawford is a wide receiver for Nebraska.  If he had been half of a set of twins, his sibling might have been named Dehottest Crawford.
• Major Burns  is a safety for LSU.  Obviously, his fiancée would have to acquire the nickname “Hot Lips”.  No?

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Len Dawson died earlier this week.  He won an AFL championship with the Dallas Texans – – later to become the KC Chiefs.  He was the Chiefs’ QB in Super Bowl I losing to Vince Lombardi’s Packers in that game.  He was also the Chiefs’ QB in Super Bowl IV when the Chiefs upset the heavily favored Vikings and Dawson was the MVP of that game.  After his career was over, he was also deeply involved in broadcasting and commenting on NFL football, and he is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame both as a player and as a broadcaster.

Rest in peace, Len Dawson.

There are several baseball issues worthy of discussion this morning.  Let me start with a report that Fernando Tatis, Jr. may be in the process of maturing.  He said earlier this week that he made a mistake and that resulted in his 80-game PED suspension.  That may not seem like a big deal at first, but I think it is a huge step forward from “I’m sorry I used some meds that contained a banned substance”.  Adults make mistakes; functional adults learn from those mistakes and the learning process begins with an acknowledgement that the functional adult screwed up.  Perhaps we have the beginnings of a breakthrough here…?

Here is the big mistake Tatis, Jr. made – – assuming the rest of his story is true:

• As a member of the San Diego Padres, he has access to top-shelf medical advice, diagnostics and treatment at no cost to him.
• Rather than avail himself of those resources, he chose to avail himself of local medical resources in the Dominican Republic.
• The Dominican Republic is not quite as backward as a Third World country – – but it ain’t SoCal when it comes to comparisons of medical expertise.

Tatis, Jr. now says he accepts blame for this situation AND he says he will use his “time off” to get the shoulder surgery that has been recommended to him for the past 18-24 months which he has resisted.  He is 23 years old, and it appears that he is now starting to think like and behave like a functioning adult.  Stand by here because if he can harness his immaturity and allow his physical gifts to express themselves, he could be a special player in MLB for the next decade.

Moving on …  We know that the Washington Nationals are up for sale, and they have been for the past several months.  Reports say that four or five potential buyers have gotten approval to look over the Nats’ books to structure a bid for the team.  Forbes says the Nats are worth $2B meaning the franchise will probably sell at a premium to that evaluation.  Now comes word that the Los Angeles Angels may also be on the block.

Reports this week say that owner Arte Moreno has retained a financial firm to “explore the possible sale of the Angels’ franchise.”  Moreno purchased the Angels in 2003 for $185M; Forbes now puts a value of $2.2B on the franchise; when he finds a buyer, the transaction will not leave him destitute.

Moreno had been working to get approval for purchasing the stadium the Angels play in along with land adjacent so that he could develop the land and get a new ballpark.  It looked as if a deal was in place but a Federal probe turned up more than a little “corruption” in the deal sending it to the dead letter office.  It appears as if Moreno will be reimbursed for his costs to date and the folks involved in the “corruption” are no long in a position to make this deal happen; so, it looks as if Moreno thinks it is best to cash in now and let someone else start the dealing processes over from scratch.  Here is a link to a report that can give you a more complete review of what this might mean for the Angels and MLB.

• [Aside:  Recall that members of the Angelos family are suing one another over possible control of the Orioles and that the patriarch of that family, Peter Angelos, is 93 years old.  In fact, there could be three MLB franchises on the market.]

Another franchise that could potentially see a major change – – not necessarily in ownership but in locale – – would be the Oakland A’s.  The A’s have proposed a plan whereby they would build themselves a new stadium in Oakland if they also get control of acreage in the city that the owners would develop but the city has to chip in the “infrastructure costs”.  The county and the state officials seem to be favorable, but things are moving at a snail’s pace.  Meanwhile, things in Las Vegas are moving much more quickly.

Reports say that execs and representatives of the A’s have met with a hotel owner in Las Vegas, Phil Ruffin, twice in the past month.  According to those reports, their meetings have focused on a large piece of “open land” known as the Las Vegas Festival Grounds that is owned/controlled by Ruffin.  This open land is along the Las Vegas Strip near Circus Circus and the Sahara Hotel.  Supposedly, MLB would “demand” at least $275M in public financing from any group that might want to bring the A’s to Las Vegas.  Notwithstanding the fact the things are moving faster in Las Vegas than they have been for the past decade or so in Oakland, this deal is nowhere near ready to go to closure.

About 15 or 20  years ago, Las Vegas was once again trying to attract an MLB franchise to the city – – I don’t recall the details.  Someone asked the mayor of Las Vegas back then if they could have a stadium built in in less than three years and his answer was along these lines:

• We know how to build hotels with more than a thousand rooms in less than three years.  A stadium is easy to build compared to a hotel.  We could use the stadium as a training ground for our construction people.

I accept the premise that building a stadium is less complicated than building a hotel/casino/resort, but I am still not persuaded that it is a trivial undertaking to go from groundbreaking to a finished facility as a “training ground”.

Finally, let me close today with this entry from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Jerk:  What you probably should not have called that cop.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………