The Sports Curmudgeon

I received two emails recently from folks who know that I like sports trivia and statistical oddities.  The first was from #2 son:

“Hey dad, here’s a fun trivia fact for the Curmudgeon:

The fastest player in NHL history to reach 1000 points was, of course, Wayne Gretzky. He did it in just 424 games!

Who was the second fastest to 1000 points?…

I thought about it and reasoned that it had to be a younger player because scoring in hockey 50-70 years ago was much lower than it is now.  So, I thought Mario Lemieux or Alex Ovechkin or Sidney Crosby.  Turns out this is the answer:

“Answer: Technically, it was Wayne Gretzky again. He did it in his next 433 games! 😲”

So now you know that one…  And a couple of days later I received another email from a friend with the following question:

What Hall of Fame player had a season with more than 600 at-bats where he had more triples than strikeouts?

My immediate thought was Joe DiMaggio because it seemed as if he never struck out and he hit with power and was fast on the bases.  Seemed logical so off went that response – – which of course was wrong.  The answer is:

• Stan Musial in 1943 had 617 at-bats where he struck out only 18 times and had 20 triples.  By the way, Musial was voted the MVP that year at the ripe old age of 22.

As I said, my response to this question was Joe DiMaggio so I decided to check out the career strikeout records for Musial and DiMaggio.

• Musial played all or part of 22 seasons.  He recorded 10,972 at-bats and struck out 696 times – – 6.34%.
• DiMaggio played all or part of 13 seasons.  He recorded 6,821 at-bats and struck out 369 times – – 5.41%.

Baseball is a very different game in 2022; highly sought-after players strike out 150 times in a season.  There are myriad reasons for the change and one of the reasons is that there has been a complete change in the way managers handle their pitching staffs and their bullpen.  When Gaylord Perry died a few weeks ago, one of the reports about his career had this comparison in it:

“Perry completed 303 games. The next pitcher to match that could be current career leader Adam Wainwright, age 41, who plans to retire after the 2023 season. Adam has 28. …”

Wainwright’s 28 complete games in a career that has spanned all or part of 17 seasons so far and has caused him to start 390 games needs to be juxtaposed to another MLB statistic from times past.

• Starting in 1952 and stretching into 1953 Robin Roberts started and completed 28 consecutive games including one game that went 17 innings.

Indeed, as Bob Dylan reminds us, the time’s they are a-changin’…

Since today’s rant has been based on email exchanges, let me continue along that path with another one from Gregg Drinnan – – author and creator of the blog, Keeping Score which you can find here.  I had asked him recently about the CFL expansion team that had been planned for the Maritime Provinces in Halifax, Nova Scotia.  The Atlantic Schooners got caught up in the COVID confusion of 2020 and I had heard nothing about any plans to revive interest in a team further east in Canada beyond Montreal.

I got an email from Gregg Drinnan yesterday with a link to an event called Touchdown Atlantic 2023.  The CFL will play a regular season game in July 2023 at a college football stadium in Halifax.  I did not realize that they did that last season as well, but the report on Touchdown Atlantic 2023 indicates that they did.  Perhaps the idea of an eastern expansion for the CFL is still alive – – possibly on life support but still among us.

Doing a bit of reading on the matter, it seems that there is not sufficient political support in Halifax for the expenditure to build a stadium there to house a CFL team permanently.  Halifax is a city with a population of about 420,000 and it appears to be the largest Canadian city east of Quebec.  [Aside:  The college football stadium for Touchdown Atlantic 2023 has a seating capacity of 1100; clearly that is not a permanent home for a CFL franchise.]  Evidently, people involved in the expansion planning also considered building a stadium in Moncton, New Brunswick to no avail.  That may have been a blessing in disguise for a putative expansion team because the population of Moncton is only 75,000 people and the greater metro area there has only about 150,000 people.

Many years ago, my long-suffering wife and I took a driving vacation in eastern Canada that took us to Moncton and to Halifax, but it was sufficiently long ago that I did not recall if the two cities were close enough such that a stadium in one of the cities might be supported by a significant number of fans from the other city.  Thanks to Google Maps, I think the answer to that speculation is – – Unlikely.  The driving distance is 243 km (about 145 miles), and the driving time is 2 hours and 51 minutes – – one-way.

I am certainly no expert on Canadian Football economics, but it appears to me that if there is going to be a CFL team in “Atlantic Canada” – however you draw the boundaries on that area of the map – it is going to be in the greater Halifax area if it is going to have a chance to survive.

Finally, since today’s rant centered on email exchanges, let me close with this observation by Judith Martin – – perhaps more widely known as “Miss Manners”:

“For email, the old postcard rule applies.  Nobody else is supposed to read your postcards, but you’d be a fool if you wrote anything private on one.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

On the Chinese calendar, 2022 is the Year of the Tiger.  Those versed in the astrological arts say that this Year of the Tiger should be associated with enthusiasm, adventure and risk-taking; it is also a year that favors creativity.  Chinese astrology would encourage folks to live out the Year of the Tiger in 2022 aligned with the motto:

• Go big or go home.

I am not into astrology, so I just look at things as they are and try to see if there is a theme or a trend in my “data”.  Coming from that starting point, I am here to declare that, in the NFL, this is the Year of the Bargain-Basement QB.

There is a cadre of very expensive QBs in the league who have under-performed their previous achievements and who have not played up to the cost they have imposed on their teams.  In alphabetical order:

• Derek Carr:  He will take down $25M in 2022.  There are QBs making more whose teams are not doing as well as the Raiders, but Carr is no bargain in 2022.
• Kyler Murray:  His new contract is 5-years and $230.5M with $103M guaranteed.  His cost for 2022 is $30M; this was a down year for Murray and the Cards even before his injury.
• Aaron Rodgers:  His new 3-year deal with the Packers averages out at $50M per year for Rodgers.  This has been arguably the worst year of his career.
• Matt Ryan:  His contract calls for an average annual salary of $30M; in 2022, he will earn $24.9M.  He – and his team – are in melt-down mode in 2022.
• Matthew Stafford:  His 4-year deal averages out to $40M per year; his on-field numbers in 2022 are not worth $40M.
• Carson Wentz:  He will make $28.3M in 2022.  ‘Nuff said…
• Russell Wilson:  His brand new 5-year contract with the Broncos has an average salary of $48.5M and he will earn $52M in 2022.  Wow…

The combined team records for these 7 QBs is 35-61-2.  Some of those QBs have been injured so their combined record as the starting QB for 2022 is 29-54-1.  Unimpressive…

However, the obverse seems also to be true in 2022.  There are also stone-cold bargains at the QB position who are producing results for their teams that are superior to the results above.

• Joe Burrow:  He is in the third year of a 4-year contract that has an average salary of $9M.  The Bengals are 10-4 this year and he has started every game.
• Taylor Heinicke:  He is in the final year of a 2-year contract; given its bonus structure, it looks as if he will make about $4M for 2022.  He has started 8 games and the Commanders are 5-2-1 in those games.
• Justin Herbert:  He is in the third year of a r4e-year contract with an average salary of $6.6M.  The Chargers are 8-6 this year and Herbert has started every game.
• Jalen Hurts:  He is in the third year of a 4-year contract that has an average salary of $1.6M.  The Eagles are 13-1 this year and Hurts has started every game.
• Daniel Jones:  He is in the final year of a 4-year contract that has an average salary of $6.4M.  The Giants are 8-5-1 and he has started every game.
• Mac Jones:  He is in the second year of a 4-year contract that has an average salary of $3.9M.  The Pats are 7-7 and he has started every game.
• Tua Tagovailoa:  He is in the third year of a 4-year contract that has an average salary of $7.6M.  The Dolphins are 8-6; Tua has started 12 games this year and the Dolphins are 8-4 in those 12 games.

The combined record for these teams is an impressive 61-35-1 and in games started by those 7 “bargain QBs” the team record is 59-29-1.

I could also argue that the Niners have started 3 different QBs on their way to a division title that is already secured in 2022 and all those QBs could be considered a bargain using the yardstick of the five “expensive QBs” listed above.  Moreover, the Jets have managed to remain “playoff-relevant” here in mid-December having started a trio of QBs who would also qualify as bargains there.

Let me be clear; I am not saying that “expensive QBs” don’t make sense for NFL teams because Patrick Mahomes is “expensive”, and he wins games for the Chiefs.  Dak Prescott is “expensive”, and he wins games for the Cowboys.  Kirk Cousins is “expensive”, and he wins games for the Vikes.

Moreover, it seems clear to me that at a minimum, Burrow, Herbert and Hurts will join the list of “expensive” QBs in the near future and perhaps Tua and the “Jones boys” will do so also.  However, the NFL should look back on 2022 as the Year of the Bargain-Basement QB just as the devotees of Chinese Astrology will see it as the Year of the Tiger.

• [Aside:  In the Year of the Tiger, might we expect to see a Super Bowl between the Bengals and the Lions?  Spooky stuff…]

Finally, since today had to do with astrology – – obliquely to be sure – – let me close with two observations about astrology:

“I don’t believe in astrology; I’m a Sagittarius and we’re skeptical.”  [Arthur C. Clarke]

And …

“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”  [John Kenneth Galbraith]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Argentina beat France on penalty kicks to win the 2022 FIFA World Cup yesterday.  Regulation time ended with the teams level at 2-2; in the 30-minute overtime, each team scored once sending the game to a penalty kick decision.  Argentina made all four of its tries;
France made only 2 so that ended the match and allowed Lionel Messi to claim the only honor/trophy that had eluded him in his illustrious career.  If you watched this game and came away from it with the idea that it was not a good expenditure of your time, then you simply do not like soccer and should make a note to yourself not to waste any more time trying to appreciate the sport.

Messi scored two of Argentina’s goals and assisted on the third; the other superstar in the game, Kylian Mbappe, scored all three of France’s goals before the penalty kick phase began.  Each superstar went first in penalty kicks for his side, and each converted to begin that round.  Each one demonstrated his greatness in this game.  In a way, it could be that this game was a passing of the torch from Messi to Mbappe as the best player of this time.  Lionel Messi is 35 years old; this is his last FIFA World Cup appearance.  Kylian Mbappe will be 24 years old tomorrow and will likely be a fixture in future World Cup tournaments for the next dozen years or so.  Perhaps the two players might meet once again in the Olympics in 2024?  If not, this World Cup Final game was a satisfactory punctuation mark for the two careers.

The “Final Four” for the World Cup had one other dramatic element.  The Moroccan team was the first African team and the first team from an Arab nation to make it that far in any World Cup tournament.  Morocco made it to the “Final Four” with surprising wins over both Spain and Portugal; the Moroccan side was a significant underdog in both games.  Their history-setting run in the tournament ended in the semi-finals when France beat Morocco 2-0.

The World Cup Tournament began just before Thanksgiving; the last four weeks have produced plenty of upbeat news in the world of futbol, but the last four weeks have not been nearly so kind to the image/legacy of another great player, Cristiano Ronaldo.

• As the World Cup games began, Ronaldo was released by Manchester United of the English Premier League.  The club did not trade him; it just told the 37-year-old superstar to take his talents elsewhere.
• In one of the World Cup games in the Group phase prior to the single elimination knockout round, Ronaldo was upset when his coach substituted for him in the game and let everyone know about his displeasure.  The coach for the Portuguese team responded by benching Ronaldo for the start of the first single-elimination game and sent him on a as a substitute when Portugal needed to give the starters a breather in a 6-1 rout over Switzerland.
  • • [Aside:  Adding insult to injury, Ronaldo’s replacement had a hat trick in that game.]
• He was also on the bench for the start of the quarter-final game against Morocco and was sent on in the second half only to be on the losing side when Morocco completed its run to the “Final Four” as noted above.
• After the loss, Ronaldo did not stay on the field (the pitch to be more correct) to acknowledge the Portuguese supporters who had come to the game as did the rest of the team and as is the custom for international games.  He just went to the locker room on his own.

Ronaldo’s days in soccer are not over; he may not be part of the English Premier League nor any of the other major soccer entities in Europe, but he is not finished in the soccer world.  Ronaldo signed a lucrative contract with Al-Nasr FC, a team in the top league of Saudi Arabia; reports say the deal could pay him up to $207M per year.  Reports say the deal covers two and a half years making it worth something north of $500M.  Some reports say that this deal is part of a grand plan by sports authorities in Saudi Arabia to focus attention there so that perhaps Saudi Arabia could host a future FIFA World Cup Tournament

• [Aside:  There are rumors that Lionel Messi will sign with Inter Miami of MLS here in the United States when his contract with Paris Saint-Germain expires this summer.  Inter Miami is the MLS team owned by David Beckham and supposedly the deal would include Messi getting a 30-35% share in the team itself.  Stay tuned…]

Prior to yesterday’s World Cup Final game, I read a report that said the only way FIFA might avoid a controversy regarding the officiating in the game would be to assign a referee from England to the game.  The reasoning is that the English hate both the French and the Argentinians equally so there would be no “apparent conflict of interest” in the calls made in the game.  As it turned out, there was no great controversy on that front during or after the game other than the normal histrionics and gesticulations of the players and coaches as is customary in any soccer match.

Finally, let me close today with an entry from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Left:  1.  A sociopolitical stance that leans toward the liberal often adopted by movie stars who make so much money that they will never have to mix with the proletariat scum they claim to champion.  2.  A turn signal that remains in a constant ON position in cars driven by anyone over sixty-five.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In Willie Nelson’s September Song, he tells us that the says dwindle down to a precious few in September and November.  For NFL teams, they can wait until the middle of December to think their future consists of just a few days.  And here we are with only a handful of Football Fridays before we bid adieu to just over half of the NFL…

As always, let me begin with a review of last week’s abbreviated Six-Pack.

• College = 0-0-0                                   Season Total = 20-12-0
• NFL = 3-0-0                                         Season Total = 18-19-3
• Parlays = 0-2                                      Season Total = 7-20
• Loss = minus-$200                            Season Total = minus-$58

            I have glanced at this week’s set of NFL games and there will not be six selections again this week.  Next year, I will have to come up with a different label for selections.

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Immediately after Navy lost to Army in double OT last week, the Academy fired its coach, Ken Niumatalolo.  He had been the head coach at the Naval Academy for 15 seasons and posted a combined record there of 109-83 and taking the Midshipmen to bowl games in 10 of those 15 seasons.  It will be interesting to me to see:

• Who takes the job in Annapolis – – AND – –
• Does Niumatalolo get any offers from significant schools in this coach-hiring season?

The reason for the second question is that Niumatalolo’s offensive philosophy has been to run the triple option.  Given the rosters he has had at the Academy, that makes a lot of sense; the coaches at Army and at Air Force do the same thing.  However, I just cannot see an SEC or Big-10 team turning to the triple option as their bread-and-butter offense any time soon.  And I say that fully recalling the success that Paul Johnson had employing the triple option at Georgia Tech recently.

To say that Bobby Petrino has had a “checkered history” in terms of college coaching would be an understatement – – but his teams at Louisville and at Arkansas played good offense.  Petrino has gotten another chance to do some college coaching this month albeit not as a head coach; it has been announced that he will be going to UNLV as the offensive coordinator there.  Maybe that is a steppingstone to get him back into a head coaching job?  Petrino is 61 years old; so, if he aspires to another head coaching gig in Division 1-A, it is important for him to be successful with the UNLV offense in the next year or two.

 

College Football Games of Interest:

 

This is the season of MINOR bowl games involving teams that often inspire a reaction along the lines of Meh!  There are certainly no games worthy of a wager over the next week or so, but there are two games that are worth a glance.

(Sat 12/17) Rice vs So. Mississippi – 6.5 (45.5):  This is the Lending Tree Bowl; if you cannot give a rapid synopsis of the proud history of this game, you are not alone.  For this year’s contest, if Rice manages to win, both teams will have a losing record for 2022.

(Mon 12/19) UConn vs Marshall – 10 (41):  This is the Myrtle Beach Bowl; I suspect you can deduce from that where the game will take place.  The game is interesting because UConn is taking part in a bowl game for the first time since 2015.  And in the years from 2016 through 2021 when UConn was not bowl-eligible, the combined record for the Huskies was 10-50.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Am I the only person who thinks Sean Payton is “not good at all” on TV as a pre-game/post-game analyst?  I sure hope he gets a good offer to return to the NFL sidelines next year so that he does not feel as if he should return to the TV gig.  I know that Bill Parcels was good in the TV studio and that Payton is a “Parcels disciple”, but that Parcels-trait did not convey during the two coaches’ time together.

Speaking of coaches getting job offers, Jeff Saturday has let it be known that he would like to stay on as the permanent head coach for the Colts starting in 2023.  And that presents an interesting situation.

• I have been amused by folks who want to say that hiring Saturday as the interim coach violated the Rooney Rule because if the Rooney Rule were to apply to that situation no coaches would be fired during the season.  It is unreasonable to expect an owner to be able to fly in and interview multiple candidates for a job after firing the incumbent coach on Monday morning as the team prepares for another game in 6 or 7 days.
• However, now that Saturday has said he would like the job permanently, that makes for an interesting situation because if he indeed gets the job permanently, there will be cries that Saturday got an unfair advantage in the process because he got hired for the interim job without “competition” from Black assistant coaches in the league.

The fact of the matter is that Rooney Rule – well-intentioned as it is – will not solve the problem of ”fewer Black head coaches in the NFL” than some folks believe ought to be in those positions.  Let me pose a hypothetical here:

• The Carolina Panthers decide at the end of this regular season that Steve Wilks did a really good job as their interim coach and the owner has decided that he wants to hire Wilks permanently.  Wilks is a Black man; do other Black men have to go through a sham interview process?  Because if the answer to that question is negative, then why should any Black assistant coaches have to go through a sham interview process when/if any owner has decided that he wants to hire a White guy as his next coach?

I have heard the arguments about percentage of Black players in the league not mirroring the percentage of Black head coaches in the league for years.  Anyone who cannot/will not see that disparity is either so self-absorbed that he/she cannot get outside himself/herself to think about the ramifications of such a situation or that person simply believes that he/she knows best what is best for them and does not want any outside interference with their actions.  Until and unless the membership in the cadre of NFL owners changes to the point where more owners are willing to consider hiring minority candidates for the high-paid job of coaching their football teams, the Rooney Rule – and any amendments that might be made to it – will be a fig leaf and nothing more.

In a report that surfaced yesterday, it seems that the NFL might be amenable to making roughing the passer calls reviewable.  According to Troy Vincent, the Competition Committee will take up this matter when it meets in the offseason to make rule change recommendations to the owners who make the decision(s).  Sounds like a good idea except possibly for these two things:

1. This will cause more delays and interruptions in the game flow.  When those reviews happen, they will not be confined to a 30-second window; I will not be surprised to see some of them take close to 5 minutes before an official call is made.
2. Remember how well it worked when the NFL made pass interference calls reviewable.  Yuck!  That abomination lasted all of one season before being rescinded.

Russell Wilson is on record saying that he would like to continue playing until he is 45 years old like Tom Brady.  Wilson turned 34 years old just a couple weeks ago so he says he would like to play for another 11 seasons.  I do not blame Wilson alone for the Broncos’ lack of ability to score in 2022 – – but he is part of the problem.  It appears to me that his career may have peaked, and the arc now is a downward one.  And if that is indeed the case, he will NOT be around in the NFL as a player 11 years from now.

As the regular season comes to an end, it becomes a bit easier to look at upcoming schedules to find key games or potentially key happenings.  Here are two scheduling observations:

1. The Ravens and the Bengals are both 9-4 in the AFC North race.  The Ravens beat the Bengals on October 9^th, but the two teams will meet again in Cincy on January 8^th in the final game of the regular season.
2. The Tampa Bay Bucs lead the Panthers and the Falcons in the AFC South race by 1 game.  The Bucs have a tough game this week against a clearly motivated Cincy Bengals team (see above).  And then, the Bucs close with games against the Panthers on January 1^st and then the Falcons on January 8^th.

Interesting stat of the week here:

• The Jags are 5-8-0 for the season and their point differential is ZERO.
• The Raiders are 5-8-0 for the season and their point differential is minus-5.
• Four other teams are 5-8-0 for the season and their point differentials range from minus- 23 to minus-39.
• The Indy Colts are 4-8-1 for the season and their point differential is minus-89.

In games from last weekend…

Ravens 16 Steelers 14:  I said last week this game would be an alley fight.  Both starting QBs left the game in the concussion protocol.  To give you an idea of how badly the Steelers wanted to give this game away, here are the results of the Steelers’ possessions from the start of the second quarter to the end of the 3^rd quarter:

• 9 plays  47 yards  INT
• 5 plays  52 yards  INT
• 6 plays  27 yards  PUNT
• 7 plays  43 yards  INT
• 9 plays  46 yards  MISSED FIELD GOAL
  • • [Aside:  All three INTs were in the Red Zone.  Yikes!]

And the Steelers only lost by 2 points…!  Those 3 INTs were thrown by Mitchell Trubisky after he entered the game when Kenny Pickett left in the concussion protocol.  There is an interesting angle in that happenstance.  Earlier this season, Pickett replaced Trubisky in a game and Pickett went ahead to throw 3 INTs in that game.  I think Mike Tomlin should worry if he is forced to substitute Mason Rudolph for one of his other QBs anytime in the rest of this season.  By the way, the Ravens ran the ball 42 times in the game gaining 215 yards in the process.

Bengals 23 Browns 10:  The Bengals and Ravens have the same record, but the Ravens are undefeated in the division and the Bengals record there is 2-3.  The Browns are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet, but that status will come soon.  The arrival of Deshaun Watson was not nearly as tectonic an event as some had imagined.  The Bengals had been giving up more than 20 points per game going into this one and the Browns only managed to score 10 points.

Cowboys 27  Texans 23:  It took a heroic goal line stand and then a 98-yard TD drive in the final 3 minutes of the game for the Cowboys to pull this out.  Talk about playing down to the level of one’s competition…  The narrative for the game is that it was “The Battle for Texas” and that reminds me of a remark made by US Army General Philip Sheridan:

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”

Jags 36  Titans 22:  I said last week that these two teams were unpredictable.  I doubt that many computer simulations had the Jags winning by 2 TDs AND that the Total Score would be in the high-50s.  The Titans lead the AFC South with a 7-6 record, but they have now lost 3 games in a row.  The Jags produced 428 yards on offense including 368 yards passing.  Compare that offensive performance by the Jags with how the Titans delivered on offense in the third quarter of the game.  The Titans led at halftime 14-13; the Jags scored 13 points in the third quarter while the Titans’ offense was doing this:

• 3 plays for minus-20 yards leading to a PUNT
• 3 plays for ZERO yards leading to a PUNT
• 1 play for minus-6 yards leading to a LOST FUMBLE
• That nets out to 7 plays for minus-26 yards with 2 punts and a lost fumble.

Lions 34  Vikes 23:  Talk about an unbalanced offense:

• Vikes’ passing offense = 394 yards
• Vikes’ rushing offense = 60 yards

The Lions produced 464 yards on offense and did not allow a sack on 39 pass attempts.  The Lions are hot; they have won 5 of their last 6 games.  The Lions are playing a “meaningful game in December. “ Most teams want to play meaningful games in January but since the Lions have been a doormat for so long, let me consider that they are taking baby steps toward a situation where they can aspire to something bigger and better.

Bills 20  Jets 12:  A slick field and bad weather meant points were at a premium in this game.  The Bills’ defense rose up and recorded 4 sacks in the game, created 2 turnovers and ended the game by forcing 4 straight incomplete passes by Jets’ QB Mike White.  The Bills now lead the AFC East by 2 full games.

Eagles 48  Giants 22:  I said last week that I thought the Total Line for the game (44.5 points) was too low.  I was right, but I never thought the game would go OVER in the third quarter nor that the Eagles would take the game OVER the Total Line by themselves.  Since losing to the Commanders, the Eagles are averaging 41 points per game and 5.3 sacks per game on defense.  In this game the Eagles averaged 9.3 yards per rushing attempt; the game was never seriously in doubt.

Chiefs 34  Broncos 28:  The Broncos finally found ways to score – – but the Chiefs found more ways to score.  The loss puts the Broncos in the same category as the Texans – – eliminated from the AFC playoffs this year.  The Chiefs led 27-0 in the second quarter, but the Broncos closed it to 27-21 late in the 3^rd quarter.  The Broncos’ defense intercepted Patrick Mahomes 3 times in the game.

Panthers 30  Seahawks 24:  If the Seahawks miss the playoffs, they will look back at this game and see the cause of their disappointment.  The Panthers held the ball for 39:16 in the game producing these numbers:

• Panthers’ rushing offense = 223 yards (on 46 carries)
• Panthers’ rushing first downs = 14

Two INTs thrown by Geno Smith sealed the deal here…

Niners 35  Bucs 7:  The Niners are large and in charge of the NFC West having won 6 games in a row.  The Niners gashed the Bucs’ defense in the running game:

• Niners’ rushing offense = 209 yards (on 36 carries)
• Niners’ rushing first downs = 12

The Niners led 35-0 soon after halftime and took their foot off the gas pedal and coasted to this victory.

Chargers 23  Dolphins 17:  This was a big win for the Chargers keeping them very much alive in the AFC playoff race, and it was a big loss for the Dolphins who are now 2 games behind the Bills in the AFC East race.  From the stat sheet, you would have thought this game should be a blowout:

• Chargers Total Offense = 432 yards
• Dolphins Total Offense = 219 yards

 

• Chargers Time of Possession =39:38
• Dolphins Time of Possession = 20:22

 

• Chargers Third Down Conversions = 9 of 18
• Dolphins Third Down Conversions = 3 of 11

 

• Justin Herbert stat line = 39 of 51 for 367 yards and 1 TD and 0 INTs
• Tua Tagovailoa stat line = 10 of 28 for 145  yards and 1 TD and 0 INTs

And yet, it went down to the end as a one-possession game…

 

NFL Games This Week:

 

No more BYE Weeks for this regular season; each weekend will have a full slate of 16 games from here until January 8, 2023.

In last night’s game, the Niners beat the Seahawks for their 7^th win in a row to clinch the NFC West race and assure the Niners a spot in the playoffs.  As a division winner, the Niners will host at least one playoff game.  The score of the game – – 21-13 – – makes it appear that this was a nail-biter; it was not.  The Niners’ defense had control as seen by:

• Seahawks were 4 of 13 on third-down conversions
• Seahawks rushing offense = 70 yards

Moreover, in the 4^th quarter when the Seahawks got the ball in good field position, the defense caused an intentional grounding penalty on first down costing the Seahawks 13 yards and stifling any threat.  The Niners are going to be a tough out in the playoffs.

(Sat 1:00 PM ET) Colts at Vikes – 4 (47.5):  The Vikes are not as good as their 10-3 record makes then look; the Colts may or may not be as bad as their 4-8-1 record makes them look.  Both teams played terribly the last time they were on the field; that was two weeks ago for the Colts who had last week off.  I don’t know who the announcing crew is for this game, but I beg them not to try to make any cute references to Jeff Saturday’s team playing on a Saturday.

(Sat 4:30 PM ET) Ravens at Browns – 3 (38):  Ravens’ QB Tyler Huntley has cleared the concussion protocol, but he did not practice this week.  Lamar Jackson’s knee is “week-to-week” according to coach John Harbaugh; I doubt that Jackson will see the field on Saturday.  So, who will be the QB for the Ravens?  Deshaun Watson will be starting his 3^rd game for the Browns; he has looked awfully rusty in those first two games and the Ravens’ defense is for real.

(Sat 8:15 PM ET) Dolphins at Bills – 7 (44):  The Total Line for this game opened at 47 points and has dropped significantly from there.  Weather.com says there is a 58% chance of snow on Saturday and that temperatures will be below freezing for most or all of this game.  I am going to call this the Game of the Week because a Bills’ win would give then a guaranteed playoff slot and it would help secure for the team the coveted BYE Week in the playoffs.  The Dolphins are chasing the Bills in the AFC East race, but they are only a game ahead of both the Jets and the Pats; they need this game too.  This is a “show-me game” for Tua.  He was terrible last week, and he has not done well in cold weather games. Also, this is the third road game in a row for the Dolphins and that is never easy for any team let alone one that has lost the first two legs of that road game span.  Tua needs a bounce-back game in the cold/snow here.  I’m not buying it; I like the Bills at home to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

Falcons at Saints – 4 (44):  Since the Falcons are only a game behind the Bucs in the NFC South, you might try to convince yourself that this is an important game.  It is not.  Even the Falcons’ braintrust does not think so; they have decided to switch out QBs for this game showing what they think of it and their chances beyond it.  Desmond Ridder will be the Falcons’ QB; I will not be surprised to see him have an adrenaline-fueled strong game that will convince the coaches to keep him in there – – until he regresses to the mean for rookie QBs in a week or two.

Lions at Jets – 1.5 (44.5):  If there was any measurable amount of sentimentality here in Curmudgeon Central, this would be the Game of the Week.  Think about it; both the Detroit Lions and the NY Jets are going to play a game with significant playoff implications for both the winner and the loser in the second week of December.  Please do not tell me you had that back in August…  The path to the playoffs for the Lions is to run the table; that would give then 10 wins and that is virtually certain to get them into post season play.  The Jets probably have a little more leeway here; they could get to 10 wins by going 3-1 down the stretch – – but they end the year with two consecutive road games, so they do not want to “spend” that loss here.

Chiefs – 14 at Texans (49):  I suspect that the Texans’ emotional energy was sapped on that final possession against the Cowboys.  With first and goal at the two yardline and a chance to make it a two-score game with about 3 minutes to play, the Texans tried four times and got a net of about 12 inches.  The Chiefs had a big lead on the Broncos and almost gave it away; I am certain the Chiefs’ coaches let the team know about that this week.  I think this game will be in the bag by halftime.

Eagles – 9 at Bears (48.5): This is a Trap Game!  Hear me out.  Yes, the Eagles are 12-1 and the Bears are already eliminated from the playoffs.  Yes, if everyone were to play to the top of the ability on Sunday, the Eagles would win the game.  However, there are two negatives here for the Eagles:

1. Traditionally, the Eagles play down to the level of their opponents.  I will not be surprised at all to see the Eagles play sloppy football here and give the ball away on turnovers.
2. The Eagles have had more difficulty defending mobile QBs as opposed to drop back QBs.  Justin Fields is a prototype mobile QB.

One thing that is massively in favor of the Eagles is that the Bears’ defense gives up points galore – – 25.6 points per game the fourth most in the league.  Even though I realize it is perfectly possible that the Eagles could win this game 42-10, there is no way I would bet on that or anything close to that happening.

Steelers at Panthers – 3 (38.5):  A Steelers’ loss here will guarantee that Mike Tomlin will have his first losing season ever in Pittsburgh.  With Kenny Pickett in the concussion protocol for the second time this season, the Steelers are faced with the choice of Mitchell Trubisky or Mason Rudolph at QB.  That is not a good position to be in.  the Steelers could not stop the Ravens’ run attack last week (see above) and the Panthers won last week by running the ball 46 times (see above again).  This is a gut-check game for the Steelers front-7 on defense.

Cowboys – 4 at Jags (47.5):  These lines have moved a lot this week; the spread opened at 6.5 points and the Total Line opened at 45 points.  The Jags are a whimsical team from week to week; the Cowboys got a huge scare from a 1-win team last week.  I expect the Cowboys to be focused in this week and – – who knows how the Jags will play?  I do expect the Jags to be involved in a high-scoring affair for two reasons:

1. They have been far more efficient on offense in the past several games – – AND – –
2. Their defense stinks meaning the Cowboys will also light up the scoreboard.

I like this game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Cards at Broncos – 3 (37):  This game opened the week as a ‘pick ‘em game”.  I guess the movement has been due to the certainty that Kyler Murray will not play in the game – – even though that seemed pretty certain to me last week.  It is not yet clear if Russell Wilson can play this week as he was in the concussion protocol last week; if he cannot go it will be Brett Rypien facing off against Colt McCoy.  That ought to get at least a; dozen folks to tune in.  None of this makes a difference; this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The two teams bring a combined record of 7-19 to the kickoff.  As far as I am concerned, the most interesting aspect of this game is this:

• Will the winning coach feel as if his hot seat has cooled off a tad?
• Will the losing coach be fired in the locker room after the game so he can spend Christmas with his family?

Titans at Chargers – 3 (46.5):  I anoint this as the runner-up Game of the Week losing out by a nose.  The Titans have lost 3 games in a row and have looked bad in each game; nonetheless, they still lead their division race by two full games; keep that in mind as you assess the powerhouse AFC South Division.  The Chargers rebounded from a loss to the Raiders two weeks ago to beat the Dolphins in a gutsy game.  This is an important game for both teams

Bengals – 3.5 at Bucs (44):  This is also an important game for both teams; the Bengals need a win to keep marching toward a division title; same goes for the Bucs.  Until last week, the Bucs’ defense kept the team in games until the offense found a way to move the ball a bit; last week, the defense was a no-show, and the result was a laugher.  Oh, but it was also a laugher because the Bucs’ offense was also a no-show.  I think the Bengals are putting it together for a stretch run and a playoff run; I don’t think the Bucs can keep pace here; give me the Bengals to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Pats at Raiders – 1 (44):  The narrative here is pupil going up against his teacher.  The last time Josh McDaniels faced Bill Belichick; it was McDaniels who came away with the win.  I suspect that coach Belichick recalls that outcome too.  There is an interesting matchup here beyond the coach and his pupil:

• The Pats’ offense has sputtered this year and there has been plenty of scorn heaped on the offensive coaches.
• The Raiders’ defense stinks – there is no polite way to put that.
• So, which team deficiency will underwhelm the other this week?

(Sun Nite) Giants at Commanders – 4 (40):  This game is a combination of a division game along with a disastrous consequence for the losing team as it relates to the playoffs.  The teams have identical records and they played to a70-minute tie game just two weeks ago.  So how come this is not the Game of the Week?  Well, if you had to watch that game from two weeks ago because it was the one piped into your viewing area, you would realize that one element for “Game of the Week status” was missing and that missing element was competent play on both sides of the ball by both teams.  What I am rooting for here is another tie game between the teams; it has to have been a while since that happened in the NFL…

(Mon Nite) Rams at Packers – 7 (39.5):  If I asked 50 NFL fans to list the 5 most disappointing teams so far in 2022, I am confident that both the Rams and the Packers would be on 40 or more on every one of those lists.  The two teams have combined for 9 wins so far this year; lots of folks would have thought that at least one of these teams would enter this matchup with 9 wins all by themselves – – and maybe both teams would have such a record.  Baker Mayfield’s arrival in LA makes for a nice story but the real story of this game is that neither defense is playing well.  This game will be played in typical weather for Green Bay in December; the high for Monday is forecast to be a balmy 19 degrees with a low at night of 7 degrees.

So, let me review the depleted Six-Pack for this week:

• Bills – 7 over Dolphins
• Jags/Cowboys OVER 47.5 points
• Bengals – 3.5 over Bucs

And here are two Money Line Parlays for fun:

• Cowboys @ minus-200
• Chargers @ minus-155                    To win $147

And …

• Commanders @ minus-210
• Bengals @ minus-190                      To win $125

Finally, let me close this lengthy piece with an observation by Woody Allen:

“I took a speed reading course and read War and Peace in twenty minutes.  It involves Russia.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

With the Philadelphia Eagles having the best record in the NFL at this point of the season, there has been a lot of reporting/analysis on how they achieved that lofty status.  The Eagles’ GM, Howie Roseman has been the subject of several pieces recently as a key contributor to the team’s success due to his successful use of trades and draft choices to provide talent to the coaching staff.  Back on Draft Day this year, Roseman orchestrated a trade with the Titans to acquire WR, AJ Brown and that acquisition has paid plenty of dividends to this point in the 2022 season.  Consider Brown’s stats through the first 13 games:

• Receptions = 65
• Yards receiving = 1020 yards (15.7 yards per catch)
• TD catches = 10
• First down catches = 42

So, the focus on Roseman’s acumen in making that trade is well earned – – but here in Curmudgeon Central, there is a recognition that a great deal for Team A often accompanies a bad deal for Team B.  Moreover, there is a need here in Curmudgeon Central to maintain a certain measure of stature in the unofficial Congress of Curmudgeons.  Therefore, I tend to focus on things like:

• What was the worst off-season move made by an NFL Front Office last year?

Since QB is the “most important” position on a team, my thinking turned to moves involving QBs and there was a clear-cut winner for worst move involving a QB:

• The Broncos gave up 4 draft picks plus 3 NFL roster players to acquire Russell Wilson.

In 13 games this year, Wilson has not provided much offensive firepower; the Broncos have only scored 194 points in those games – – 14.9 points per game.  In fact, last season the Broncos averaged 19.7 points per game and the consensus was that level of output was unsatisfactory.

Two other QB-related moves came to my mind, however.  The Commanders spent far less draft capital and no players from their NFL roster to acquire Carson Wentz from the Colts.  That move by the Commanders has not have any more on-field success than the Broncos trade has, but the Commanders did not mortgage their future in the deal.  But there was another move that has not gotten much scrutiny that was – – simply stated – – a bad decision.

• The Saints re-signed Jameis Winston.

Looking back, Winston suffered a major knee injury that limited him to 7 games in 2021.  And in 2020, he only saw the field in 4 games – – none as the starter.  Add in the fact that in 2019 he led the NFL in passing yards (5106 yards) and at the end of the year, the Bucs moved on from him.  So how did 2022 pan out for the Saints and Winston?

• Saints record is 4-9; they are in last place in the NFC South.
  • • [Aside: Every team in the NFC South is below .500 this morning and every team has a negative point differential for the season.  And the Saints are in last place in that division…]
• Winston has started and played in 3 games so far.  In those games he threw 4 TDs and 5 INTs.
• An injury forced him to the sidelines but now that he is physically fit to play, the team has chosen to go with Andy Dalton for the rest of 2022.  The QB that the Saints chose to re-sign in the last offseason is playing behind Andy Dalton.

The Saints’ Front Office has not figured out a way to replace the retired Drew Brees at QB since the end of the 2020 season.  In addition to Winston and Dalton, add Taysom Hill to the equation and ask how a team that finished 9-8 last year could decide to “stand pat” at QB with that trio?  That decision was not as bad as the ones made by the Broncos and the Commanders because it only cost the Saints Winston’s salary money; there were no draft picks or players lost.  But essentially, the Saints just kicked the can down the road in terms of finding a “centerpiece QB.”

Now, of course, the saving grace might be that a bad finish for 2022 would put the Saints in an excellent position to draft their “QB-of-the-future”; as of this morning the Saints would own the #5 pick in 2023.  But there is a rub…

• On Draft Day in 2022, the Saints and Eagles were involved in a massive exchange of draft picks spanning the 2022, 2023 and 2024 drafts.
• In that exchange, the Saints got to take Chis Olave, Trevor Penning and Jordan Jackson in the 2022 draft with picks from the Eagles.
• In that exchange, the Eagles got possession of the Saint’s first round pick in 2023 – – so what is now the overall #5 pick in the 2023 draft belongs to the Eagles.

By the way, the person who made that trade for the Eagles is Howie Roseman.  It certainly seems as if Howie Roseman had a couple of smart moves back on Draft Day 2022…

Finally, since today was focused on successes and failures, let me close with this observation by Joseph Heller:

“Success and failure are both difficult to endure.  Along with success come drugs, divorce, fornication, bullying, travel, medication, depression, neurosis and suicide.  With failure comes failure.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The 1983 NFL Draft was THE Year of the Quarterback.  Six QBs were taken in the first round of that Draft; three of those QBs are in the Hall of Fame – – John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino.  A fourth QB taken in that first round – – Tony Eason – – was the starting QB in Super Bowl XX.  Not a bad talent pool …

I know it is far too early to evaluate the 2020 NFL Draft, but my far-too-early perspective is that there was also a deep pool of QB talent in that Draft.  Consider:

• Joe Burrow:  He was the overall #1 pick in the Draft and has already been the starting QB in the Super Bowl.
• Justin Herbert:  He was taken #5 overall in the Draft.  The eyeball test tells me he is going to be a great player.
• Jalen Hurts:  He lasted until Round 2 of the Draft – the #53 pick overall.  I have no idea if he is this year’s MVP, but he will get consideration for that award.
• Jordan Love:  He was the overall #24 pick and has seen little or no field time so far in his career because he is behind a future Hall of Fame QB in Green Bay.
• Tua Tagovailoa:  He was picked at #6 overall in the Draft.  He has had a couple of injuries early in his career, but he certainly looks like a “keeper”.

I am absolutely not projecting three of the players above as Hall of Fame inductees and specifically, I am not saying that the 2020 NFL Draft will surpass the 1983 NF Draft in terms of producing outstanding QBs for the league.  All I want to lay out there today is that four of those five young players are already very good at their craft and the fifth guy could be as good as his colleagues.  We shall see…

That about ends the upbeat portion of today’s rant; from here on out, the subject matter is a lot darker.  Let me begin with a report from earlier this week that Texas basketball coach, Chris Beard, was arrested on charges of domestic violence and has been suspended by the university without pay “until further notice”.  According to an ESPN report, a woman identifying herself as Beard’s fiancée said that he bit her and choked her as the result of an argument between the two parties.  Because of the allegation of choking, the charge here could be a felony under Texas law and could result in a sentence of up to 10 years in jail.  The situation is clearly not a good one – – but there are some unusual aspects here.

The woman who was on the receiving end of the alleged biting/choking said that her part in the argument included “breaking a glass” and that act preceded Beard losing control.  Beard and his attorney claim that they have an “audio recording” of the alleged assault that shows it was not Beard who was the “primary aggressor” in that contretemps.  Beard was released on bail and ordered to stay away from the residence where this allegedly happened – – no surprise there.  But the real surprise for me comes from a statement by Beard’s lawyer that the complainant wants the charges dropped.

There is another story out there that was sleazy to begin with and seems to get worse with every new report is the involvement of Brett Favre in a scheme to divert government funds intended for impoverished families into funds to pay for a volleyball venue as Southern Mississippi where Favre went to college and where his daughter was/is a member of the volleyball team.  At first, it appeared that Favre had merely lent his fame/celebrity status in that part of the world to an endeavor that he thought was on the up-and-up, but which turned out to be dastardly at best.  The Mississippi Department of Human Services is seeking in court to recover funds from Favre and from others allegedly involved in this scheme and Favre’s lawyers seek to have him removed as a defendant there.

According to that motion, Favre asserts that this misappropriation of government funds was done by folks in the government and that he – as a private citizen – was in no position to effect such a misappropriation.  The former head of the Mississippi Department of Human Services has already plead guilty to charges related to this fraud and Favre’s lawyers say the lion’s share of the blame belongs to former Mississippi governor, Phil Bryant and other government officials.  As various parties to all this squalor present arguments in the case, it turns out that Favre was also involved in an effort to build a “football facility” at Southern Mississippi in 2019 as part of a recruiting effort for Deion Sanders’ son, Shadeur Sanders, to go there.

As they say in those 3:00 AM infomercials:

“But wait; there’s more…”

Another ESPN report says that Favre is a major investor in two Florida drug companies that are somehow “enmeshed” in the Mississippi welfare funds misappropriation case; Favre asserts that he invested his own funds in these speculative enterprises.  The two drug companies are researching a nasal spray to help treat concussions and a cream that would prevent/limit concussions.  Somehow, authorities allege that welfare funds from Mississippi wound up in the hands of the funder of those two drug companies.  The ESPN report on all this was done by investigative reporter, Mark Fainaru-Wada.  It is a lengthy report that describes a situation which can best be labeled as “sordid”.  Here is a link to that report; be sure you have a cup of coffee near at hand as you wade through it.

Finally, the allegations surrounding the welfare funds fraud in Mississippi lead me to close today with this observation about government by H. L. Mencken:

“Has the art of politics no apparent utility? Does it appear to be unqualifiedly ratty, raffish, sordid, obscene, and low down, and its salient virtuosi a gang of unmitigated scoundrels? Then let us not forget its high capacity to soothe and tickle the midriff, its incomparable services as a maker of entertainment.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Mississippi State head football coach, Mike Leach died this morning at the age of 61.  The official announcement said the cause of death was “complications from a heart condition.”  Leach was a successful coach and an architect of the so-called “Air Raid Offense”.  He was also not one given to coach-speak; Leach was candid, and he was willing and able to discuss matters outside the realm of football Xs and Os.  While the coach at Washington State, Leach taught an academic course titled, “Insurgent Warfare and Football Strategy”.  I would sign up for that course.

Rest in peace, Mike Leach…

Last week, the Washington Post published a report from three of its sportswriters who have been central to the story of the “toxic workplace” conditions that seem to have existed – – and may continue to exist for all I know – – in the organization currently known as the Washington Commanders.  Liz Clarke, Mark Maske and Nicki Jhabvala have been on this story since their original reporting more than a year ago.  Here is a link to their latest report; it is lengthy but if you are interested in the latest “scoop” on this story, I commend it to your reading.

This reporting came on the heels of the release of a report by the committee investigating all of this in the US House of Representatives.  I am on record saying that the investigation there is grandstanding by politicians simply because Congressional hearings are supposed to provide lawmakers with insights that they will then use to craft legislation.  I remain skeptical that any such legislation will ever come from these hearings; ergo…

There is, however, something in the depths of this report that I – as a layman – think is important.  According to the story in the Post, Bruce Allen (former Team President) testified under oath that an NFL official told Allen that it was the Washington team that leaked his email exchanges with Jon Gruden to the Wall Street Journal that led eventually to Gruden being fired as the coach of the Las Vegas Raiders.  Obviously, I have no idea if any or all of that is true, but it is testimony under oath and that ought to provide Gruden’s legal team additional ammunition in their litigation against the league and the Commissioner.

With the majority in the House of Representatives changing next month as a result of the recent mid-term elections, this committee and its investigation are about to dry up and blow away – – but I have a feeling that this story has not yet run its course.

Moving on …  The Tennessee Titans lead their division in the NFL as of this morning, but that status is due in large measure to the ineptitude of the other three teams in that division.  That is a situation where a short-attention-span owner can convince himself/herself that the current head coach is a dunderhead and what the team really needs is some sort of infusion of intelligence in its leadership roles and that infusion of intelligence must come from the uber-smart owner taking action and firing the coach.  It rarely works.  The Titans took a different tack in recent weeks; the Titans fired their GM and not their coach.

More often than not, I think the reason coaches get fired in mid-season is because the roster they have to work with is less talented than the rosters of their opponents.  Normally, that blame ought to – at a minimum – be shared between the coach and the GM; but normally, it is the GM who survives.  Not so in Tennessee.  And that action leads me to wonder what might happen to the GMs in cities where the NFL team is either playing badly or is clearly talent deficient.  Consider:

• Houston Texans:  They have a young roster that may develop into a worthy opponent in a year or three, but the current roster is simply outgunned most of the time.  The Texans were one-and-done with a coach last year; if they were to fire Lovie Smith at the end of this disastrous season (current record is 1-11-1 with the worst point differential in the NFL), they will not be a magnet for “hot coaching prospects”.  So, might the GM in Houston – – Nick Caserio – – be the one “held accountable” for this year’s tire fire?
• Chicago Bears:  The Bears’ situation is like the Texans’ situation; the team is young, but it is overmatched most of the time in 2022.  The record is 3-10-0 and they too have a first-year head coach who was hired to replace a coach who left Chicago with an overall winning record.  The big difference here is that the Bears’
  GM, Ryan Poles, is also in his first year on the job.  One can question his strategy of trading away his best defensive players in mid-season to accumulate draft capital, but he is not the architect of this roster.  We shall see, but I expect that the Bears will stand pat this offseason.
• Denver Broncos:  The Broncos must be the biggest disappointment league wide.  After parting with 4 draft picks and 3 experienced players to acquire Russell Wilson from the Seahawks, some folks had the Broncos as one of the second-tier contenders for a Super Bowl appearance.  That ain’t gonna happen.  Moreover, the first-year coach in Denver – – Nathanial Hackett – – was hired because of the magic he could work with a talented QB; and that is not working either.  [Aside:  In email exchanges with a former colleague, he refers to the Denver coach as “Nathanial-He-Can’t Hackett.”]  Both the coach-hiring decision and the QB-trace decision came from the desk of GM George Paton.  I sense upheaval in Denver in about 6 weeks…

Those are three teams where one might expect some degree of change in the offseason.  But to a lesser extent I think I will keep an eye on these other situations too:

• Arizona Cardinals:  The roster is mediocre, and the coaching is hardly outstanding…
• Carolina Panthers:  They already fired their coach, so who else is around to take a fall…?
• Indy Colts:  Who knows what Jim Irsay’s next move might be?  I am not sure even Irsay knows the answer to that – – and they too have already fired their coach…
• New Orleans Saints:  Dennis Allen is a first-year coach; the Saints should have a top draft pick – – but that was traded away to the Eagles last year by the GM and not the new coach…

Finally, much of today’s rant has dealt with management and/or leadership.  So, let close with several observations on those topics:

“The key to being a good manager is keeping the people who hate me away from those who are still undecided.”  [Casey Stengel]

And …

“When trouble arises and things look bad, there is always one individual who perceives a solution and is willing to take command.  Very often, that person is crazy.”  [Dave Barry]

And …

“There are two kinds of people, those who do the work and those who take the credit.  Try to be in the first group; there is less competition there.”  [Douglas Adams]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Call it Murphy’s Law or call it The Law of Unintended Consequences.  Call it a real-life example of creating Frankenstein’s Monster who is now out and about in the countryside.  College sports are now minor league professional sports.  I have no intention of waxing nostalgic here about the glory of amateur athletics and the noble nature of college sports in days gone by.  Nevertheless, let us recognize the status quo for what it is.

For years, many folks argued that college athletes were being exploited – – and they were indeed if your definition of exploitation also covered Olympic athletes and Little League athletes.  Participants in sports at those levels all toiled and practiced and performed for no “payment” while others reaped bountiful financial rewards.  In the lawsuits that ultimately determined that athletes at any level should be allowed to profit from their name, image and likeness once those attributes had acquired value due to athletic achievements, it was difficult to hope that the “other guys” would win the case and prevent Joe Flabeetz from selling the rights to his name as a product endorser.  However, I for one did not see that we would arrive in the current situation let alone get here in only a couple of years.

• Name, image and likeness deals have become recruiting tools not rewards based on athletic achievement.
• One report I read said that the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is working on a structural system that will allow high school athletes to join in the name, image and likeness business.
• Because it is “fundamentally unfair” to make an athlete sit out a year if he/she transfers when a coach can pull up stakes and change schools at a moment’s notice, that led to the creation of the transfer portal.  That is nothing more than a politically acceptable term for “collegiate free agency” – – and it can be used by athletes and/or against athletes.

When Deion Sanders addressed the current members of the Colorado football team – the team he will take over next Fall – he told them to get to the transfer portal to make room for players that Sanders would bring in.  He said that life for players hanging around would be made as agonizing as possible to see if any of them were going to prove worthy of retaining their scholarships.  [Aside:  The PAC-12 guarantees scholarships for 4 years, so Sanders cannot just renege on that prior agreement – – but he can make life miserable for anyone that he does not want in the program.]

Moving on …  Mike Leach, head football coach at Mississippi State, was hospitalized over the weekend.  The press release stated that Leach was taken to the hospital for “a personal health issue” that happened at his home.  Excuse me:

• Memo to Communications Folks at Mississippi St.:
  • Health issues can be serious or not serious
  • Health issues can be curable or chronic
  • Health issues can be lots of things but none of them are “impersonal”.

Next, I want to address another issue involving a football coach.  Over the weekend, the Washington Post did a long-form story on Jim Caldwell.  The headline was:

The QB Whisperer …

With No QBs To Whisper To

The narrative of the story is revealed in these sentences in the fifth paragraph:

“The fact that Caldwell spends Sundays at home in Lewisville, N.C., watching football on television suggests there is a weird amnesia among people who hire NFL head coaches.  They go chasing after the latest “quarterback whisperer” and elevate young White men above their capacities apparently insensible to the fact that it was a Black coach who altered the career of arguably the most intelligent quarterback in the history of the league, Payton Manning, and who raised the games of two eventual Super Bowl winners, Joe Flacco and Matthew Stafford.”

Caldwell has been out of the NFL coaching business since 2017 since he was fired by the geniuses who run the Detroit Lions despite Caldwell’s winning record as a head coach in Detroit and two playoff appearances for the Lions in his four-year tenure there.  It is pretty clear from the quotation above how the authors explain Caldwell’s period of unemployment – – and they may be 100% correct.  But maybe Jim Caldwell is sort of like Prometheus in Greek mythology…

Prometheus was a Titan god of fire who defied the edict of the Olympic gods and gave fire to mankind.  Zeus did not like being disobeyed and “sentenced” Prometheus to eternal suffering; Prometheus was chained to a rock and an eagle would land on him and peck out his liver every day only to have the liver grow back overnight so that Prometheus would suffer the same fate every day for eternity.

Jim Caldwell has not suffered and will not suffer anything nearly as gruesome as that.  But Jim Caldwell may have gotten crosswise with the football gods because:

1. He took the job as the head coach of the Detroit Lions – – AND – –
2. Since the merger of the NFL and AFL, no coach fired by the Lions has ever been a head coach again in the NFL for even a single game.

Since 1965, the Lions have had 20 head coaches – – counting interim head coaches.  Only three had winning records with the Lions – – Caldwell was one of the three.  And none of them ever got another head coaching job in the NFL.

Finally, since I began today with a reference to Murphy’s Law which everyone knows well, let me close with a corollary to that famous Law:

“If several things that could have gone wrong have not gone wrong, it would have been ultimately beneficial for them to have gone wrong”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

When I was a kid, Gene Autry had a half-hour TV show on Sunday evenings.  The show began with Autry singing the theme song for the show which began:

“I’m back in the saddle again,

Out where a friend is a friend…”

I can relate to that here since I have been off the air for the last two Fridays and have missed doing Football Friday on those days.  So, I feel as if I am back in the saddle today and am presumably among friends…

Let me begin by reviewing the last Six-Pack that I offered up:

• College = 1-2-0          Season Total = 20-12-0
• NFL = 1-2-0                Season Total = 15-19-3
• M/L = 1-1                    Season Total = 7-18
• Profit = $36                Season Total = +$142

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The Linfield College Wildcats made it to the second round of the Division III national football championship tournament, but their season came to an end on November 26^th losing to Bethel 30-13.  The Wildcats record for 2022 was 10-1 and their combined record over the past 5 years is 45-8.  Congratulations to the Wildcats; looking forward to following your exploits next year.

I have mentioned here before that I attended an Ivy League college meaning that I have seen first-hand the difference in skill levels between the Ivy league and – say – the SEC or the Big-10.  So, I was a bit surprised to run across a report that said the Ivy League would be sending an “All-Star team” of seniors and grad students to Japan to play a Japanese “All-Star team” in something called the Dream Bowl.  The game will take place on Jan 21, 2023 in Tokyo and the objective seems to be to expand interest in American football in Japan.

If that were not a sufficient surprise, I also learned that this is not the first time this will have happened.  In fact, from 1989 through 1996, the Ivy League and a team of Japanese All-Stars played a game, and the Ivy League won all eight of those encounters.  Who knew?

Here is a paragraph from the report I ran across; it shows that there remains a difference between a traveling All-Star team from the Ivy League and one from some other football conferences:

“The U.S. delegation will arrive in Japan on January 15 to prepare for the game, as well as take part in Japanese cultural and educational events. Two Ivy League professors will accompany the group to further the learning experience.”  [Emphasis added…]

It is official; Deion Sanders will take the head coaching job at Colorado after two very successful seasons at Jackson State University.  “Coach Prime” as he refers to himself will have his hands full there.  The Buffaloes were 1-11 last year and only scored more than 20 points twice in their twelve games.  I know they say that defense wins championships, but you also have to score a few points to win games as well.  [Foreshadowing here:  Remember “Colorado defense” about five minutes from now…]

Frankly, this is a big deal for the PAC-12 as a conference.  Of the so-called “Power-5 conferences, the PAC-12 respectability has been on the decline in recent years.  They had a shot at being in the CFP this year until USC gagged away their opportunity last weekend (see below).  “Coach Prime” will bring more attention to the entire conference; I am already looking forward to PAC-12 media day next year; I just know he will have something eccentric planned for that event.

The coach that Sanders is replacing at Colorado is Karl Dorrell who is as measured and serious as Sanders is ebullient and engaging.  I have no idea if Sanders can turn around the football fortunes in Boulder, but he will turn around the tone and tenor of the program in about the first 15 minutes that he is on the job.

Dan Wetzel writes for Yahoo!sports; here is an excellent column that will give you an idea of the energy that Sanders will try to bring to Colorado.  It takes about 5 minutes to read; I recommend you do so.

Let me go over a few comments about games from last weekend and how we arrived at the four teams in the CFP bracket…

Utah 47  USC 24:  This was a total bed-wetting by USC; they had a “win-and-you’re-in” game for the CFP bracket here and they were totally outplayed and out-coached.  Trojans’ QB Caleb Williams injured a hamstring early in the game and played on with a noticeable limp; when Lincoln Riley was asked if he considered a substitute, Riley said that Williams would not allow him to make the substitution.

• Memo to Coach Riley:  Aren’t you supposed to be the adult in charge?

USC led 17-3 in the first half; from that point on, Utah outscored the Trojans 44-7.  I am not sure what game Coach Riley was observing from the sidelines, but it was not the same game I saw on my TV screen.  One more point here; USC needs to devote just a bit of recruiting attention to defensive players – – either that or find coaches who can teach the current defensive players how to tackle an opponent.  Utah posted 533 yards of total offense and 233 yards rushing.

K-State 31  TCU 28  (OT):  K-State had played TCU tough in the regular season leading by 18 points in the first half and the Wildcats showed up here ready to play the Horned Frogs just a bit tougher this time around.  The stat sheet was as close as the scoreboard.  A chip-shot 31-yard field goal in OT was the difference in the outcome of this game.

Georgia 50  LSU 30:  Lest there had been any lingering doubt as to the best team in the SEC …  Georgia led 35-10 at the half and genuinely coasted to a win here.  For the record, Georgia is the best college football team I have seen to this point in the 2022 season.  The defense this year is good – – but as good as last year’s Bulldog defense.  However, this year the Bulldogs have a much more potent offense.  In the game against LSU, Georgia accumulated 529 yards on offense allowing the team to win comfortably despite the defense allowing LSU to gain 502 yards passing in the game.

Clemson 38  UNC 10:  The Tar Heels averaged 35 points per game this season but only managed 10 points here.  The Clemson defense did not shut UNC down; check out this pair of stats:

• UNC Total Offense = 384 yards
• Clemson Total Offense = 385 yards

Three turnovers by the Tar Heels provided the difference in this game.

Michigan 43  Purdue 22:  The Boilermakers won the stat sheet outgaining the Wolverines by 70 yards in the game and Michigan only led 14-13 at the half.  The difference here is that Michigan scored six TDs and Purdue scored five field goals.  End of message…

And in a game that had no championship implications but was of interest:

New Mexico St. 65  Valparaiso 3:  This game is of interest because it is the Aggies’ sixth win of the season and makes them bowl-eligible for the first time since 2017.  New Mexico St. has been a college football punching bag for the ten years prior to this season – – notwithstanding that bowl appearance in 2017.  In the ten-year period 2012 – 2021, the cumulative record for Aggies football was 26-86.  In fact, the last time New Mexico St. had a football season with double-digit wins was in 1960.  Congratulations to first-year coach Jerry Kill and the New Mexico State Aggies for this bowl-eligible season.

Now that the college football regular season is over – – save for the Army/Navy game this weekend – – it is time to award the 2022 Brothel Defense Award.  This is given to the team that allows anyone and everyone to score on it frequently.  And that team for 2022 is:

• The Colorado Buffaloes who gave up 44.5 points per game.

            Previously, I mentioned Colorado’s anemic offense in 2022 – – one that averaged only 15.4 points per game.  “Coach Prime” must transform a team that lost by an average of 29.1 points per game.  Yowza!

One other piece of business needs to happen at the end of the college football regular season.  It is incumbent on me to present the seedings for my imaginary SHOE Tournament which would decide the worst team of the year on the field if it ever happened.  The teams would play and the loser in each game must play on; the winner can go home knowing they would not be labeled the SHOE Team for the year where SHOE is an acronym for Steaming Heap Of Excrement.  Here is the Tournament field:

• Eighth Seed – Florida Int’l (4-9):  They are the only 4-win team in the field, and they are “invited in” over some other teams with only 2 wins because of how bad some of the losses were.  Early in the season the Panthers lost a game 73-0; in the first three weeks of November, the Panthers lost three games by a total of 117 points.  FIU belongs in this tournament.
• Seventh Seed – Hawaii (3-10):  They are the only 3-win team in the field, and they are “invited in” over some other teams with only 2 wins because of how bad some of their losses were.  In the first three weeks of the season, Hawaii was outscored 168-37.  Toss in another loss by 42 points later in the year and Hawaii belongs in this tournament.
• Sixth Seed – Nevada (2-10):  The season started well for the Wolfpack; they won their first two games.  Then they lost by 2 TDs to a Division 1-AA team and the season came apart at the seams; Nevada did not win a game after that.
• Fifth Seed – New Mexico (2-10):  One of those two wins was over Division 1-AA Maine in the first game of the year.  Why Maine agreed to fly all the way to New Mexico to play that sad sack of a team remains a mystery…
• Fourth Seed – USF (1-11):  The Bulls’ only win was over Division 1-AA Howard back in early September.  Maybe they should have been seeded higher – – which means lower?
• Third Seed – Northwestern (1-11):  Somehow, they managed to beat Nebraska in a game in late August in Dublin, Ireland.  After that, they just stunk.  In two of their November games, the Wildcats lost to Minnesota by 28 points and to Illinois by 38 points.
• Second Seed – UMass (1-11):  That win came at the expense of Division 1-AA, Stony Brook back in mid-September.  In the final game of the season, the Minutemen hosted Army and lost by 37 points.
• First Seed – Colorado (1-11):  The only positive thing to say about this team is that its one win did come over a conference rival.  They gave up the most points per game of any of the 131 Division 1-A teams PLUS they ranked 127^th in the nation in scoring offense.

Too bad the NCAA will not allow these games to begin…

The only Division 1-A game left to play before the silly bowl season kicks in next week is the Army/Navy game.  The Middies are currently a 2.5-point favorite in the game, but the more interesting number is the Total Line.  The oddsmakers opened the Total Line at 35 points and it has dropped all the way to 32.5 points and could go down even a tad more by kickoff.  Notwithstanding the fact that there will probably not be much scoring in the game, Army/Navy is always entertaining to watch because you will never see a player on either team dogging to or engaging in a “Hey-Look-At-Me” style of celebration.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The Rams put Matthew Stafford on IR and that has to be something positive for Lions’ fans.  No, Lions’ fans are not wishing evil on Stafford as “the QB who left town”; the Lions’ fans are happy because they own the Rams’ first round draft pick next year; and with Stafford out, the Rams are less likely to win games than they would be with a healthy Matthew Stafford available.  And the grand part of this irony is that the Lions’ have the Rams’ first round pick because of the trade that sent Stafford to LA from Detroit…

Speaking of the Rams and their QB situation, the team picked up Baker Mayfield off waivers this week after the Panthers cut him loose.  I thought the Niners might have tried to get Mayfield given their QB injury status, but the Rams’ record is well below that of the Niners so the Niners never had a real chance to sign Mayfield up for duty.  Mayfield’s “attitude” got him shipped out of Cleveland, but it was his performance that got him cut by Carolina.  His future as an NFL QB is not guaranteed – – unless he pulls off a few more miracle finishes as he did last night (see below).

I mentioned that the Niners have a QB-injury situation with Jimmy G breaking a bone in his foot last week and Trey Lance having been sidelined since Game One.  Brock Purdy played well last week, and I find the reaction to his success interesting.  Consider:

• Back in Training Camp, folks wondered if Trey Lance (a guy picked #3 overall in the draft after the Niners traded up to get that pick) with his lack of game experience would be a burden that could hold back a Niners’ roster that was strong everywhere else.
• After Brock Purdy (the last player taken in this year’s draft) played very competently for 3 quarters of last week’s game after Jimmy G got hurt, folks are saying that Purdy showed enough to lead the Niners to the Super Bowl.

A month ago, it certainly looked as if the Steelers would have their first losing season in the Mike Tomlin Era which began in 2007 and which has produced a combined record of 158-92-2.  However, the Steelers have won three of their last four games and their record as of this morning stands at 5-7.  Kenny Pickett is maturing as a QB, and I think part of the rapid maturation is because the Steelers run the ball a lot and do not force him to win games by carrying the team on his shoulders.  There is a reason the Steelers have had the same coach for the last fifteen and a half seasons…

NFL historian, Dan Daly, combined current US politics with NFL history in this Tweet:

“Can’t decide if 1,510,916 is Herschel’s vote total or the number of draft picks the Cowboys got for him.”

In game action from last weekend …

Browns 27  Texans 14:  Deshaun Watson definitely showed some rust having gone almost 2 years between NFL games.  The Browns did not have an offensive TD in the game; their 3 TDs came from:

1. A punt return
2. A Pick-Six
3. A Scoop-and-Score

The Texans seem locked in as the team to possess the #1 pick in the 2023 Draft.  The last time the Texans scored more than 20 points was on October 2 and the Texans lost that game to the Chargers 34-24.  Bad as that seems, here is another fact that makes it worse:

• That game against the Chargers is the ONLY time this year the Texans have scored more than 20 points in a game.

Ravens 10  Broncos 9:  If you did not see this game, you might wonder if this was the result of bad offense or good defense.  The answer – from someone who watched some but not all of it – is that it was a bit of both.  Lamar Jackson left the game in the second quarter with a knee injury.  Neither team could muster up 300 yards of total offense for the game.  Russell Wilson looked like he was out of gas.

Packers 28  Bears 19:  The Bears led 19-10 at the start of the 4^th quarter and then that Bears’ defense did what it has done well all year long – – give up points to assure a loss.  Justin Fields threw 2 INTs in that 4^th quarter and those INTs did not help the Bears’ cause even a little bit.  With this win, Aaron Rodgers continues his “ownership” of the Bears; his record as a starter against the Bears is now 25-5.

Lions 40  Jags 14:  To get a feel for this game, consider these stats:

• Total Offense:  Lions = 437 yards            Jags = 266 yards
• 3^rd Down Conversions:  Lions = 8 of 12    Jags = 3 of 12
• First Downs:  Lions = 31       Jags = 14

You get the idea; this was an organized ass-kicking.  Dan Campbell must be doing something right in Detroit; the Lions have won four of their last five games

Vikes 27  Jets 22:  The Vikes won another “one-score game” and sealed the win with an INT at the goal line in the final seconds of the game.  The Vikes have played 9 games where the scoring margin was one possession.  The Vikes have won all 9 of those games.  Amazing…

Steelers 19  Falcons 16:  This game was as close on the stat sheet as it was on the field.  The Steelers never trailed but the Falcons rallied from a 19-6 deficit late in the third quarter to make a game of it.

Eagles 35  Titans 10:  AJ Brown caught 8 passes for 119 yards and 2 TDs to torment his former teammates.  Here is another game where some stat comparisons will give you a feeling for what happened:

• Total Offense:  Eagles = 453 yards   Titans = 209 yards
• First Downs:  Eagles = 26            Titans = 11
• Yards per Pass Attempt:  Eagles = 9.0    Titans = 3.8

This was another organized ass-kicking.  This is the fourth game this year that the Eagles have scored 35 points or more.  In addition, the Eagles’ defense held Derrick Henry to 30 yards on 11 carries and sacked Ryan Tannehill 6 times in the game; that is the recipe for beating the Tennessee Titans.

Commanders 20  Giants 20 (OT):  The Commanders have this week off and then play the Giants as their return game from their BYE Week.  I wish I could say that next game will be a double dip of excitement, but this game was more of a snoozer than anything else.  Both teams played well enough to lose the game but neither team played well enough to win.  Hence the outcome…

Niners 33  Dolphins 17:  Jimmy G is out for the rest of the regular season with a broken foot suffered early in this game.  Remember that Trey Lance is also out for the season since Game 1; so, the Niners now turn to their #3 QB, Brock Purdy who was the last player taken in last year’s Draft.  Purdy acquitted himself well given the credentials he entered the game with; here is his stat line:

• 25 of 37 for 210 yards and 2 TDs

Those are not Hall of Fame numbers, but they are as good as anyone in the Niners’ organization had a right to expect.  The Niners’ defense continued to play outstanding football.  The Niners intercepted Tua three times and limited the Dolphins’ ground game to 33 yards for the game.  Meanwhile the methodical Niners’ offense held the ball for over 40 minutes making sure the Dolphins could not mount a serious threat in the game.

Seahawks 27  Rams 23:  John Wolford was the QB for the Rams with the team having put Matthew Stafford on IR; he managed to throw for 178 yards in the game, which is OK, but he also threw 2 INTs which is not OK.  Even though the Rams were outgained by 119 yards, it took a TD pass to DK Metcalf with 36 seconds left in the game for the Seahawks to post the victory.

Bengals 27  Chiefs 24:  This was a fun game to watch; it was full of great plays, and it was always in doubt.  The Chiefs had a 14-game winning streak for games played in the month of December; that streak is now gone.  Also gone – for the moment at least – is the Chiefs’ hold on the #1 seeding in the AFC Playoffs.  The Bills now hold that slot and the playoff BYE Week that comes with it.  Joe Burrow had a most efficient day:

• 25 of 31 for 286 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs
• 11 rushes for 46 yards and 1 TD

Another offensive contributor for the Bengals was Samaje Perine who ran for 106 yards on 21 carries.

Raiders 27  Chargers 20:  This is the third win in a row for the Raiders and it keeps their dim playoff hopes alive.  Josh Jacobs ran for 144 yards in the game, but I think the real story here is that the Raiders’ defense held the Chargers to only 72 yards on the ground making the Chargers one-dimensional.   Here is another piece of good news for Raiders’ fans:

• Both Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow are reported to be close to coming back to action for the Raiders.

Cowboys 54  Colts 19:  Here is all you need to know about what it means to have a football melt-down:

• In the 4^th quarter, the Cowboys scored 33 points and the Colts scored zero points.

Bills 24  Pats 10:  This was a workmanlike showing by the Bills.  The offense gained a respectable 355 yards, held the ball for just over 38 minutes and only turned the ball over 1 time.  Meanwhile the defense held the Pats to 14 first downs and only 3 of 12 on third-down conversions.  Interestingly, this is the first win for the Bills over another AFC East team this year.

Bucs 17  Saints 16:  The Bucs rallied from 10 points down with about 7 minutes to play in the game to win in the final 10 seconds here.  Sounds great, no?  This game was about as exciting as a fetid bog.  The Bucs are now 6-6 with a BYE Week still in their pocket and that appears to be a commanding lead in the AFC South.  Yes, that is a reasonable assessment of the worthiness of that division…

 

NFL Games This Weekend:

 

This is the last of the BYE Weeks for the NFL regular season.  Six teams will have the weekend off:

1. Bears:  They are the only NFC team already eliminated from the playoffs with their 3-10 record and a 6-game losing streak.
2. Colts:  They have not been eliminated from the playoffs just yet but at 4-8-1, their elimination appears to be imminent.
3. Commanders:  They may be in last place in the NFC East, but they are still very much in the playoff picture – – and they are the only team to beat the Eagles this season.
4. Falcons:  Like the Colts, they have not been eliminated from the playoffs just yet, but that status appears to be approaching quickly.
5. Packers:  The Packers have not been eliminated from the playoffs – – but they have been eliminated from the NFC North race.  With 8 losses already on the books, one more loss will assure the Packers and Rodgers of a losing season – – something that has only happened twice since Rodgers ascended to the starting QB job in 2008.
6. Saints:  The Saints would have the 4^th or 5^th overall pick in the 2023 Draft if the season ended now.  They will likely find a way to screw that up too between now and early January…

With six teams out of action and another game taking place last night, that leaves only 12 games on the weekend card.  A quick glance at those games tells me that there will not be a full Six-Pack this week, and the more I look at the weekend card, the fewer selection opportunities I see.

The acronym that describes last night’s game between the Rams and the Raiders must be AYFKM which stands for Are You [Bleeping] Kidding Me.  Baker Mayfield had less than 48 hours to prepare for and practice with the Rams’ team for this game; they trailed 16-3 with 5 minutes to play and had nothing happening on offense.  The Rams got a TD to make it 16-10 and made a defensive stop but the Raiders punted the ball down to the Rams’ 2 yardline so all that was needed was a 98-yard drive with less than 2 minutes on the clock and no timeouts.

The Rams got all of that and the Raiders’ defensive coaches and defensive players ought to be ashamed.  Defensive penalties gave the Rams a first down and stopped the clock for them; someone in the Raiders’ braintrust decided to play man defense far more often that made any sense to anyone who has watched NFL football for the last  10 years; Baker Mayfield threw the winning TD to a man single covered in the end zone when only a TD could have beaten the Raiders and there were only 10 seconds left on the clock.  The final 5-7 minutes of that game were a disgrace for the Raiders’ defensive players and coaches; they should give back their game paychecks.

Here is the rest of this weekend’s NFL action…

Vikes at Lions – 2 (52):   The spread opened the week with the Vikings as 1-point favorites, but the trend has been to the Lions all week long; that’s right; the Vikes with a 10-2 record are underdogs to a Lions’ team that is below .500.  The Lions ran out to a 14-point lead over the Vikes in their first encounter this year and then – typical of the Lions – they coughed up a hairball and invented a way to lose that game.  However, the Lions seem to be improving week by week.  Consider these two stats:

1. Lions give up the most points per game in the NFL
2. Vikes give up the most passing yards per game in the NFL

I think both defenses will be torched in this game, so I’ll take it to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Jets at Bills – 10 (43.5):  The Bills’ offense looked good against the Pats but will need to be more efficient against a very good Jets’ defense.  That offensive unit is capable of doing just that.  The question in my mind is how the Bills’ defense is trending.  Yes, the unit has injuries to deal with, but that defense does not seem to be playing nearly as well as it did earlier this year.   I am tempted to take the points here but will resist that temptation.

Ravens at Steelers – 2 (36.5):  This game will be just like an alley fight.  The Steelers are 3-1 in their last four games – – coinciding with the return to action of TJ Watt a month ago.  The Ravens will play Tyler Huntley at QB unless Lamar Jackson’s knee takes a miraculous turn for the better.  If light-up-the-scoreboard offensive football is your thing, pick another game to watch.  This one could easily turn out to be a “last-man-standing” game.

Eagles – 7 at Giants (44.5):  I gave this one some consideration as the Game of the Week because a Giants’ loss would eliminate them – and the Commanders also – from the NFC East division race.  The game is also important within that division race because the Cowboys would appear to have a walkover against the Texans.  I think this will be much more of an offensive game than the oddsmakers think it will be; so, I’ll take this game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Browns at Bengals – 5.5 (46.5):  The Bengals are hot right now; the offense is in sync.  The Browns have Deshaun Watson at QB, but he was miserable last week.  Watson is far more talented than the results showed last week so betting on this game is the same as playing the Powerball lottery.  I will pay attention here only out of curiosity…

Jags at Titans – 3.5 (41):  Speaking of “unpredictability” can anyone divine when either of these teams will play at their best and/or at their worst?  I cannot.  Both teams looked awful last week; does that mean anything regarding this game?

Texans at Cowboys – 17 (44):  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week simply because it has the potential to become a 30-point blowout.  The Texans’ offense is indeed offensive (see above) and even though the Texans’ defense plays hard – and often plays well – they are not going to keep up here.  The last time there was an apparent mismatch of this proportion the final score was:

• Lions 35
• Christians 0

Just so you know, the Money Line odds for this game has the Cowboys at minus-2500 and the Texans at +1280.  Find something else to watch…

(Sun Nite) Dolphins – 3 at Chargers (52.5):  NBC and the NFL flexed this game into the Sunday Nite slot in place of the Chiefs/Broncos game below.  Probably a good move for NBC…  I also considered this game as my designated Game of the Week because the game is meaningful to both teams – – even though it is more meaningful to the Chargers.  Surely this will be part of the storyline for this game:

• Justin Herbert was the 6^th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft
• Tua Tagovailoa was the 5^th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Have at it, guys…

Panthers at Seahawks – 4 (44.5):  The spread opened at 6.5 points and has been inching down during the week.  I guess bettors think that last week’s BYE was a plus for the Panthers but what I see is a Panthers’ team that is:

1. All but eliminated from the NFC playoffs
2. Bringing an 0-5 road record to the kickoff
3. Traveling about 2500 miles to play the game.

Best hope for the Panthers here is the Seahawks’ defense; it is not good, and it ranks 30^th in the NFL in yards allowed per game.

Bucs at Niners – 3.5 (37.5): This is my Game of the Week.  It matches two division leaders, and it matches the ageless Tom Brady against the wet-behind-the-ears Brock Purdy as opposing QBs.  Both teams bring dominant defenses to the game; the Niners’ defense is first in the NFL in yards allowed per game (283.9).  Someone with lots of free time on his hands came up with this information:

• Six QBs made their first NFL start against Tom Brady
• All six came out of the game as a loser
• This is Brock Purdy’s first NFL start.

Another rarity in this game regarding the QB comparison:

• Tom Brady was a higher draft pick than Brock Purdy; Brady went at the end of the sixth round of his draft at pick #199
• Brock Purdy was “Mr. Irrelevant” last year taken with the 262^nd pick in the seventh round in 2022.

Chiefs – 9.5 at Broncos (44):  The Total Line here opened at 41 points and has climbed to this level as of this morning.  The Chiefs can still earn that BYE Week in the AFC playoffs, so they are motivated here.  The Broncos have lost 4 games in a row and have yet to beat a division foe.  The Broncos’ defense is good, but it may need to hold Patrick Mahomes and Company under 13 points to win the game; I don’t see that happening…

(Mon Nite) Pats – 1 at Cards (43.5):  I cannot pretend that this game was ever part of my thinking as the Game of the Week, but it might be one of the more interesting contests on the card.  The Pats’ offense was somnambulant last week in their loss to the Bills, but that was against the NFL’s 10^th ranked defense in Total Defense.  The Cards check in at 21^st in the league on that stat; so, I expect the Pats’ offense to be more efficient and effective in this game.  But the question for me is the Pats’ defense and how it will deal with Kyler Murray as a running threat.  Mobile QBs have had big days against the Pats this year.  I’ll take the Pats and lay the point on the road figuring that the Cards will find a way to lose this game; put it in the Six-Pack.

So let me review this week’s abbreviated Six-Pack:

• Lions/Vikes OVER 52
• Eagles/Giants OVER 44.5
• Pats – 1 over Cards

            And here are two Money Line parlays just for fun:

• Niners @ minus-175
• Seahawks @ minus-205                   To win $134

And …

• Bengals @ minus-240
• Chiefs @ minus-430
• Titans @ minus-185                          To win $169

            Finally, Dwight Perry uncovered this career note for the venerable Al Michaels:

“From the It’s Not How You Start But How You Finish file, comes word that celebrated broadcaster Al Michaels’ first television job was with Chuck Barris Productions in 1966, choosing female contestants for ‘The Dating Game.’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I did not express myself clearly yesterday when I said that Aaron Judge and Clayton Kershaw were the only MLB free agents who had re-signed with their previous teams.  I meant to say “top-shelf free agents” but did not say so.  The “reader in Houston” provided me with free agents who “re-upped” with their previous teams; let me include them here for completeness:

• Edwin Diaz – – Mets
• Rafael Montero – – Astros
• Joc Pederson – – Giants
• Martin Perez – – Rangers
• Anthony Rizzo – – Yankees
• Robert Suarez – – Padres

My bad …

Leaving the world of errata – hopefully – here are three things I KNOW:

1. The Baltimore Ravens need to invest some draft capital and/or free agent money to acquire some pass-catchers on the outside.  The team is built around a strong running game but is having trouble running the ball consistently because of defenses deploying seven-man and eight-man boxes all too frequently.  The Ravens need to add some WR threats simply to spread defenses out.
2. Matt Ryan is not the long-term answer for the Indianapolis Colts at QB simply because of his age; he is 37 years old.  Neither is Nick Foles the long-term answer for the Colts at QB.  So, maybe they actually do need to play Sam Ehlinger this year even though it would appear as if the Colts were tanking and that is something owner Jim Irsay declared was verboten in the Colts’ organization.  The Colts are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs but with a 4-8-1 record as of this morning, let us just leave it that their chances are not good for playing beyond Week 18.
3. There was TMI included in the recent announcement that the people who run Wimbledon every summer were going to relax the stricture that women participants must wear only white uniforms.  All that would have been necessary would have been to say that women wearing “all-whites” was a thing of the past and that Wimbledon was now going to permit female competitors to wear other colored undergarments.  See?  You have a piece of information; it is no big deal; you can move forward just as the good folks at Wimbledon can move forward.  Except, we also had to be made aware that the reason for this change is that women were worried that blood might be visible on white undergarments when the competitors were menstruating.  Too Much Information…

And here are four things I THINK:

1. The Denver Broncos’ braintrust must be starting to regret that trade for Russell Wilson.  To acquire Wilson, the Broncos gave the Seahawks two first round picks, two second round picks, Noah Fant, Drew Lock and Shelby Harris.  This was done to “solve the Broncos’ offensive woes that had persisted over the last several years”.  How’s that working out?  Not well at all.  Consider this.  The Broncos’ defense has held opponents to 17 points or fewer 8 times this year.  The Broncos’ record in those 8 games is 3-5.  The Broncos’ offense stinks; they do not have draft picks to remedy that malodorous situation.
2. It is time for the Atlanta Falcons to take a look at Desmond Ridder as their QB simply so they can assess his potential future role with the team.  The Falcons spent a third-round pick on him back in April; he has not seen regular season activity so far.  The fact is that Marcus Mariota is not excelling at the QB position and the Falcons’ playoff hopes are dimming week by week.  The Falcons have their BYE Week this week; it may be time for them to look at Ridder in real game action as a future investment.
3. MLB and the MLBPA must figure out how to get teams that refuse to spend money on payroll to change their behavior.  This issue has existed for quite a while now and it leads to sufficient competitive imbalance that it diminishes interest in the games.  Teams can count on enough guaranteed revenue these days from local and national media rights contracts that there’s no excuse for them to not spend on players’ salaries that would improve the team performance.  And yet, here we are…  I continue to maintain that this problem is solvable if both the owners and the players’ union will each swallow a pill that neither wants to swallow.  There needs to be a salary floor for all MLB teams (owners would rather have three root canals each than accept this) along with a salary cap (the players would rather sell their progeny into slavery than accept this).  Nevertheless, without something to drive certain teams to spend to create competitive balance, there will be no progress here.
4. The Boston Celtics’ hot start in the NBA regular season – – the team has won 20 of its first 25 games – – takes some of the luster off Ime Udoka’s reputation as a great young coach.  The Celtics were very good under Udoka last year making it to the NBA Finals, but they seem to be just as good under Joe Mazzulla this year; and until this year started, the name “Joe Mazzulla” would only have evinced a response of “Who’s he?”

Here are two things I FEEL:

1. Cody Bellinger’s career is at a crossroads; one road leads to a continued MLB career and the other leads to some team wishing him well in his future endeavors.  In 2019, Bellinger was the NL MVP posting a season-long OPS of 1.035.  In the three seasons since then, his OPS has ranged from .542 to .789.  Will the real Cody Bellinger please stand up?  He was a free agent this year and only got a 1-year contract – – at $17.5M – – from the Cubs.  The 2023 season seems to me like do or die for his career.
2. If Michigan wins the CFP National Championship Game, Jim Harbaugh will return to the NFL to try to win a Super Bowl.  He came close to making that jump last year when he engaged in a flirtation with the Vikes.  If he wins the National Championship this year, there are no loftier goals for him at the collegiate level.  So maybe off to the NFL with the Colts? Cards? Broncos? Chargers? Panthers? Saints?

And here is What’s Next:

• Brittney Griner is coming home from her prison/labor camp in Russia; a prisoner swap has been negotiated; President Biden has said she is on a plane headed home.  While that can only be interpreted as good news, I fear some will say that Griner got special attention because she is a professional basketball player with celebrity/athletic status and that her release means the continued incarceration of other US citizens jailed abroad.  For some folks, a silver lining is never sufficient; they insist on building a cloud around it.

Finally, regarding some MLB owners’ unwillingness to spend money on player salaries to improve the team, I think those owners are taking one of Henry Ford’s pronouncements too literally:

“You don’t get rich by what you earn; you get rich by what you don’t spend.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………