The Sports Curmudgeon

I will take the opportunity of a somewhat normal week here in Curmudgeon Central – – only one travel day to navigate around – – to do a real Football Friday today since I will not be able to do one next week with the intervention of Thanksgiving.  And so, I shall begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Spreads/Total Wagers went 2-2.  Meh!
• Money Line Parlays went 2-1 for a “Profit” of $201.  Good show!

I told you earlier this week that Linfield won their game last weekend giving the Wildcats the Northwest Conference Championship and a seeded slot in the division III football playoffs.  They have this weekend off and will play Pacific Lutheran on Saturday November 30^th.  Go Wildcats!

My “sleeper team” for 2024, the Nebraska Cornhuskers, seem to have become somnambulant in recent weeks.  After starting the season with 5 wins in their first 6 games, the Huskers have now lost 4 games in a row.  They need a win over Wisconsin this week at home and/or a win over Iowa on the road for the remainder of the season to make it to a bowl game.  Go Huskers!

 

College Football Commentary:

 

More than 50 years ago there was a wonderful comedy film, A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum.  Last week, a funny thing happened in the world of college football.  In what appeared to be a meaningless game between the Temple Owls and the Florida Atlantic Owls – – a game won by Temple in OT extending the suffering of any/all fans who stayed to watch.  Between last Saturday and today, Florida Atlantic fired losing coach, Tom Herman; I guess you can chalk that up to the Athletic Director suffering from the ignominy of losing to another miserable opponent.

But wait, there’s more.  Temple also fired its coach – – the guy who just won a game last weekend.  Stan Drayton was shown the door after being on the Temple sidelines for the last three seasons where his teams won a total of 9 games.  When coaches get fired in mid-season, it is usually after a loss or just before a BYE week so that the interim coach can try to install something new for the team to try to execute.  I cannot recall a situation where both the winning coach and the losing coach in a game were both fired within about 48 hours of the final whistle.

I went down a rabbit hole looking for coaches who have been fired in mid-season this year in Division 1-A college football.  I am sure I have not gotten all of them but there is something interesting about the listing that I did come up with.  In alphabetical order:

• Ball St.
• Florida Atlantic
• Kennesaw St.
• Rice
• Southern Mississippi
• Temple
• UMass – – and – –
• Utah St. all fired their head coaches this year.

All eight of these schools have either been in my SHOE Tournament in the past or are on the SHOE Watchlist this year.  Schools like Temple, UMass and Ball St. qualify on both counts.  Maybe the message here is that there are programs that just are not going perform up to a level of mediocrity on a consistent basis and coaches who think that they are the chosen ones to effect such a transition of fortunes are living in a delusion.

It was not so long ago that football commentators were pushing for expansion of the CFP.  One of the prevailing narratives was that a field of only 4 teams left out worthy contenders and that expansion of the field to either a field of 8 or a field of 16 would assure that all the worthy teams got a chance for glory.  Some proponents went so far as to say that expansion of the field would end all the weeping and gnashing of teeth among the fanbases of the teams who were “snubbed”.

The CFP has been expanded to 12 teams.  That is better than 4 teams to be sure.  Is twelve the ideal number?  Check back in 2034 after I have ceased to produce these expositions for the answer to that query.  However, we can already discern that one part of the previous narrative was either wishful thinking or unadulterated bullsh*t.  The debates over which teams were “snubbed” in the selection process has simply moved down the ladder slightly.

• In the 4-team CFP Era, teams ranked 5 and 6 experienced fanbase weeping and gnashing of teeth.
• In the 12-team CFP Era, teams ranked 13^th and 14^th – – and maybe even 15^th – – will experience fanbase weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The latest CFP rankings from this week make the points above.  In the Top 10 for this week, there are only two “debates”:

1. Should Indiana be as high as it is because its undefeated record has come against a weak slate of opponents, and it is hardly a traditional football powerhouse?
2. Should Alabama with 2 losses be ranked above three 1-loss teams, Miami, SMU and BYU?

However, lots of ammunition is being accumulated among fans of SMU, BYU, Texas A&M and Colorado should they remain as the 13^th through 16^th ranked teams on the list; they would be left out of this year’s CFP, and no one is going to like that even a little bit.

This latest ranking definitely shows the pecking order for the so called “Power 4” Conferences:

• Big-10:  Four of the Top-5 teams this week are from the Big-10.
• SEC:  Five of the Top-12 teams this week are from the SEC
• ACC:  One of the Top-12 teams this week is from the ACC
• Big-12:  None of the Top-12 teams this week is from the Big-12

At least for this season, perhaps we should not refer to the “Power-4” and focus on the “Power-2”.    Just a thought …

Before I leave the subject of the CFP and the rankings, let me make sure that everyone understands something fundamental about the CFP structure.

• The CFP Selection Committee is NOT seeking to identify and invite the 12 best football teams in college football this year or in any future year.
• The CFP Selection Committee will try to put the best field together for the tournament within the constraints placed on it.
• The Committee MUST invite 5 conference champions – – ACC, Big-10, Big-12, SEC – – plus the “highest rated conference champion” of the other 5 football conferences in Division 1-A football.

Looking at this week’s rankings – – and assuming they do not change drastically in the next several weeks – – the Big-12 champion, and the “highest rated other champion” will be in the field no matter where they stand in the Top-25 rankings by the Committee.

• It appears that the ACC champion will be determined by a game between SMU and Miami; that winner will get an automatic invitation.  Should the loser also get an invitation?
• The highest rated teams from the Big-12 are BYU (14^th) Colorado (16^th) Arizona St. (21^st) and Iowa St. (22^nd).   BYU and Colorado have only 1 loss in conference and appear to be the teams to play for the Big-12 Championship and a guaranteed invitation to the CFP.
• Boise St. is the “highest rated conference leader among the other conferences” and is ranked this week at 12^th.  Boise St. is undefeated in the Mountain West conference – – but so is Colorado St. who is nowhere to be found in the Selection Committee’s Top-25.

Here are some brief comments regarding games from last weekend.

Florida 27  LSU 16:  It was not a good night for Brian Kelly or his LSU team.  Two weeks ago, they were the victims of a serious beatdown at home at the hands of Alabama.  Three weeks ago, the Tigers dropped one against Texas A&M.  This was supposed to be a “get-well game” against a middling SEC squad.  This loss leaves the Tigers with a 3-3 record in conference and a 6-4 record overall.  Remember when Kelly resigned at Notre Dame to take over the LSU program, he said that he did that because he could win a national championship at LSU but not at Notre Dame.  Don’t look now, but Notre Dame is ranked 6^th this week by the CFP Selection Committee and LSU is not even on the Committee’s long-range radar.

Rutgers 31  Maryland 17:  Rutgers will be in a bowl game this year.

Boise St. 42  San José St.  21:  I suggested last week that you tune in to this game if you could in order to watch RB, Ashton Jeanty.  Here is his stat line:

• 32 carries for 159 yards and 3 TDs

Georgia 31  Tennessee 17:   The Bulldogs had lost their last game to Ole Miss and that had them outside the CFP playoff window.  This win moved them up, but not far enough as of this week to be sure of a CFP invitation.  However, they have finished their SEC schedule grind and will close out the season with a home game against UMass (cupcake game) and the big rivalry game against Georgia Tech; two wins there could get Georgia into the field where they will have a chance to defend their national champion status from last year.  Tennessee had not allowed more than 19 points all season, but they were dominated last week; Georgia gained 453 yards on offense and converted 8 of 13 third-down situations.

Texas 20  Arkansas 10:  The Longhorns have only 1 conference loss in the SEC as of today as do the Aggies of Texas A&M.  Those teams were bitter rivals back in the days of the old Southwestern Conference and then in the Big-12 until the Aggies “defected” to the SEC.  The two teams will play each other on Nov 30^th which might be very interesting because these two teams may be considered the best teams in the conference after that game meaning they would meet again in the SEC Championship Game a week later.  Stranger things have happened.

Texas A&M 38  New Mexico St. 3:  This was a tune-up game for the Aggies.

Colorado 49  Utah 24:  The Buffaloes probably need to win the Big-12 Championship to get into the CFP because they have two losses on their record – – one of them coming at the hands of my “sleeper team for 2024”, the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Utah St. 55  Hawaii 10:  Utah St. was on the SHOE Watchlist last week; Hawaii had won 4 games this year.  This was a rout from the start; the halftime score was 24-3; the score at the end of the 3^rd quarter was 45-3.  Ouch!

SMU 38  BC 28:  The Mustangs are 9-1 this year and should play for the ACC Championship barring a stumble against Virginia this week and/or a loss to Cal next week.

Penn St. 49  Purdue 10:  Purdue is a bad football team this year.  I don’t know whether to call them Pur-don’t or Pur-can’t.  You make the call…

Texas St. 58  So. Mississippi 3:  Another rout of a SHOE Team.

Oregon 16  Wisconsin 13:  When the 4^th quarter started, Wisconsin led 13-6 but the Ducks managed to eke this one out to remain undefeated for 2024.

Memphis 53  UAB 18:  Sorry, but UAB is not a good football team in 2024…

Kansas 17  BYU 13:  First loss of the year for BYU.  That makes this week’s game between BYU and Arizona St. very important for the Big-12 standings.

Miami (OH) 34  Kent St. 7:  Kent St. remains as the only winless team in Division 1-A college football for 2024.  In this game, Kent St. scored first with 13:40 left on the clock in the first quarter.  After that came the deluge:

• Miami Total Offense = 479 yards
• Kent St. Total Offense = 183 yards  [Hat Tip to Louis XV of France]

As the college regular season comes close to its end, the focus on the contenders for the Brothel Defense Award becomes clearer.

• Utah St. gives up 39.1 points per game.  They only gave up 10 points last week
• Ball St. gives up 40.1 points per game.  They gave up 51 points last week.
• Kent St. gives up 44.2 points per game.  They gave up 34 points last week.

And here is one more SHOE Tournament Watchlist with 12 entries in alphabetical order:

1. Akron:  The Zips are 2-8 and play Kent. St. this week
2. Ball St.  Second for the Brothel Defense Award, they give up 289.1 ypg passing
3. FAU:  They are 2-8; when you lose to a SHOE Watchlist team, you replace it
4. Florida St.  They are an embarrassingly bad 1-9
5. Kennesaw St.  They are 1-9 and have already fired their coach
6. Kent St. Leader for the Brothel Defense Award and an 0-10 record
7. Purdue:  They are 1-9 and have not been competitive in many of the losses
8. So. Mississippi:  They are 1-9 and 8 of the losses were by 16+ points.
9. Tulsa:  They are 3-7 and give up 309.1 ypg passing – – worst in the country
10. UAB:  They are 2-8 and that is just a bad football team.
11. UMass:  They are 2-8; they fired their coach; they play Georgia this week.
12. UTEP:  They are 2-8; they have scheduled Tennessee this week.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

Colorado – 2.5 at Kansas (60) Game is in Kansas City:  Colorado needs this game to stay in contention for the Big-12 Championship Game; Kansas can only be a spoiler here.  I am not a fan of Deion Sanders’ antics that draw attention to himself, but he has shown me that he can coach college football players.  I like the Buffaloes to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Ole Miss – 10 at Florida (55):  The Gators need another win to become bowl-eligible and the Gators need another win to avoid a third consecutive losing season. Ole Miss is a longshot to make the CFP, but another loss would extinguish that tiny flame of hope.

Wisconsin at Nebraska – 2 (42.5):    My “sleeper team” needs this one badly…

Penn St. – 11 at Minnesota (45):  The Nittany Lions cannot afford to stumble here.

Indiana at Ohio St. – 13 (51):  The oddsmakers are rather convinced that Indiana’s bubble will burst this weekend.  A blowout loss to Ohio St. could drop the Hoosiers from the Top 12; a close game with the Buckeyes could solidify Indiana’s place in the CFP field.  This is the College Game of the Week.

UMass at Georgia – 42.5 (55.5):  A SHOE candidate takes on a CFP hopeful.  Who scheduled this one … ?

UTEP at Tennessee – 41.5 (52.5): A SHOE candidate takes on a CFP hopeful.  Who scheduled this one …?

Iowa St. – 7 at Utah (42.5):  The Cyclones can still make it to the Big-12 Championship Game but cannot afford to stumble.

BYU at Arizona St. – 3 (48.5):  BYU lost for the first time last week and cannot afford another loss if they want to be sure of a place in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Stanford at Cal – 14 (55.5):  Huge rivalry game here …  Keep the bands in the stands!

Texas A&M – 2.5 at Auburn (46.5):  The Aggies need this game to remain in the standings as a 1-loss team in the SEC and therefore a slot in the SEC Championship.

USC – 5 at UCLA (51.5):  Another huge rivalry game …

Army at Notre Dame – 14.5 (44.5) Game is in NY:  Remember, Army is undefeated in 2024; this is a crucial test for the Cadets; I think they are overmatched here.

Washington St. – 11.5 at Oregon St. (57):  The winner here is the champion of the “PAC-12 remnants” …

Alabama – 13 at Oklahoma (47):  The Crimson Tide cannot afford another loss if they are to remain CFP relevant.

Colorado St. at Fresno St. – 3 (47):  Colorado St. opened the week as a 2-point favorite but that spread has flipped.  Remember, Colorado St. is undefeated in Mountain West Conference games as of this week…

Missouri – 7 at Mississippi St. (57):  Mizzou has been disappointing for the last month or so, but they could have some fun here against a Mississippi St. defense that allows more than 460 yards per game.  I’ll take the Tigers on the road to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Earlier this week, I discussed the NY Jets firing of their head coach and then their GM.  Filling either or both of those positions with a top-shelf candidate should require some fundamental answers from ownership.

1. Yes, or no, is Aaron Rodgers going to be on the roster next year?  The new GM candidates need to know that to develop anything resembling a reasonable roster restructuring plan.  The new coaching candidates need to know if they want to try to live out a year with Rodgers and then face a QB search which could mean starting from scratch.
2. Is ownership willing to pay Rodgers his guaranteed money if the coach and the GM say they do not want him on the team?  I am not a capologist and do not pretend to understand the nuances of lots of NFL contracts, but my calculation is that Rodgers would need to be paid a little over $20M to go away and that he would cost almost $25M against the Jets’ cap in 2025.

I am sure there are plenty of nuanced scenarios within the framework of those questions, but the only reason someone might take either of the open jobs without some clarity on those questions is because the financial terms are very lucrative or because the candidate is a retread who really wants to be an NFL coach again but cannot get his foot back in the door.

Meanwhile, across town in NYC, the NY Football Giants also made news this week.  The Giants will bench Daniel Jones and start Tommy DeVito (“Tommy Cutlets”) this week and potentially for the rest of 2024.  Speculation has been that both of those decisions are financially driven according to this “logic”:

• The Giants’ braintrust has given up on Jones even though he still has 2 years to go on his contract.  In 2025, Jones will bring a cap hit of $41M to the Giants and that could be higher if he is injured this year.  He has a $23M “injury guarantee” in his contract for 2025.  Hence, the “logic” goes that the Giants are benching him to prevent an injury that will cost them more money in 2025 for a guy they don’t want.
• There is too much mind-reading in that explanation for my taste – – but there is another financial aspect here.  Last year, the Giants signed Drew Lock to a 1-year contract for $5M to be the backup.  Lock is still there and is not injured – – but he is not going to be the starter going forward.  According to Spotrac.com, there are incentive clauses in Lock’s contract that might trigger if he were to play in the final 7 games of the season.  Tommy DeVito’s contract has no incentive clauses in it so there is no possibility of a trigger.

That second “situation” makes me wonder…

I don’t want to give anyone the impression that I am picking on the NFL teams from NY simply because they are from NY.  I prefer to think of myself as an equal-opportunity curmudgeon who can spot dysfunctionality wherever it exists and that in 2024 dysfunctionality has manifest itself gloriously in the two NY franchises.  So, which one is in the worse shape?  That is akin to deciding who your favorite Menendez brother might be.

Overall, I like the Jets’ roster better than the Giants’ roster even accounting for the fact that Aaron Rodgers is going to be 42 years old next year and now plays with the hopes of achieving mid-tier status as an NFL QB.  If the Giants have indeed soured on Daniel Jones and are experimenting with Tommy Devito and/or Drew Lock as their QB for now and maybe next year, that tandem is not up to snuff in a competitive NFL.

I ran across a report on CBSSports.com earlier this week that said Andy Reid can join a very exclusive club with his next win as coach of the Chiefs.  According to that report, only Bill Belichick and Don Shula have more double-digit wins in a season as compared to Andy Reid.  Those two guys both achieved that record 20 times in their coaching careers; Andy Reid has done it 19 times and he has 9 wins on the books already for 2024.  Make room for “Big Red” to join Belichick and Shula in that exclusive club.

I said here last week that I think the Cowboys should be playing Trey Lance for the resto of this season.  Lance is still a mystery.

• Can he be a starter in the NFL?
• Can he be a reliable backup in the NFL?
• Is he a bust who should be out of the league entirely?

If the answer to Question 3 above is in the affirmative, then the Cowboys need to move on from him but the answer there cannot be known with any confidence unless Lance gets a chance to play with the rest of the Cowboys’ starters under real game conditions.  If the answer to Question 3 above is in the negative – – or even in the “doubtful range” – – it would be important for the Cowboys to assess his performance ceiling.  The reason is that if Lance shows he can be a solid backup and the Cowboys remain steadfastly behind Cooper Rush as their backup, then Trey Lance becomes a valuable trade asset for the team.  No other team will pay top-dollar for a guy who was taken #3 overall in the draft who has yet to be able to see the field regularly on Sundays in the NFL.  But if Lance shows that he is capable at the NFL level, then the Cowboys can do some wheeling and dealing to accumulate more players via the Draft.

None of this can be accomplished with Cooper Rush as the Cowboys’ QB simply because the league pretty much knows what Cooper Rush is and what he can do.  And if the Cowboys continue to put Lance “behind” Rush in terms of game time, that is not an inducement for other teams’ GMs to make big-time offers for Lance.  Unfortunately for Cowboys’ fans, owner/GM Jerry Jones sees the world differently from the logic-based position I have taken here:

“We have thought it was just too important for us to have [Lance] at quarterback in these last two ballgames because we need to win to that degree and give ourselves every chance we can.  We hadn’t gotten to the point that we were looking to evaluate Trey Lance more, at all.”

After reading that, I should be able to convince you that the current mantra in the Cowboys’ Front Office is:

“Hope springs eternal…”  [Hat tip to Alexander Pope.]

Before I get to comments on a few of last week’s games, I want to take a peek at the NFC South standings.  As of this morning, the Falcons lead the division at 6-5-0 and the Bucs trail them by a game-and-a-half at 4-6-0.  But it is worse than it looks:

• The Falcons beat the Bucs twice in October so the Falcons permanently own any tiebreaker that might come into play due to overall record.
• That might be important when you look at the remainder of the Bucs’ schedule which is relatively soft:
  • • At Giants – – Giants are currently 2-8
    • At Panthers – – Panthers are currently 3-7
    • Vs. Raiders – – Raiders are currently 2-8
    • At Chargers – – Chargers are currently 7-3, could be a tough game
    • At Cowboys – – Cowboys are currently 3-7
    • Vs. Panthers – – A second time against this 3-7 team
    • Vs. Saints – – Saints are currently 4-7
• Folks, that remaining schedule is pillow-soft.  But the Bucs cannot claim any tiebreaker with the Falcons and cannot inflict a loss on the Falcons for the rest of this regular season.  Nevertheless, do not be surprised if the Bucs wind up the year at 9-8 or 10-7.

Here are some comments about some of the games from last weekend:

Steelers 18  Ravens 16: The Ravens biggest problem right now might be Justin Tucker; he has been the most accurate kicker in the NFL, but 2024 is just not Tucker’s year. He missed two field goals against the Steelers and that was the difference in the game.  This game showed me that the Steelers must be considered as Super Bowl contenders. They have an excellent defense as always plus solid special teams and an offense that has the ability to make big plays.

Chargers 34  Bengals 27:  The Bengals were in the game to the end and then they found a way to lose. Joe Burrow threw for 356 yards and three touchdowns; Tee Higgins returned to the lineup and caught 9 passes for 148 yards and 1 TD in the game.  The defense was not great, but it played well enough to keep the Bengals from being squashed.  So, it was the special teams that came up with a way to lose the game; the biggest problem was kicker, Evan McPherson, who missed two field goals in the fourth quarter. The Bengals have now lost 6 one-score games in the 2024 regular season.

Packers 20  Bears 19:   The Bears’ decision to fire offensive coordinator Shane Waldron looked awfully good last week.  The Bears’ offense produced  391 yards; Caleb Williams threw for 231 yards and he added 70 yards on the ground. Williams also directed a final drive by to set up Cairo Santos’ game-winning field goal attempt, but it amounted to nothing, because the Packers blocked the field goal attempt.

Seahawks 20  Niners 17:  The Seahawks, Niners and Rams are all 5-5-0 this year and all of them trail the Cards (6-4-0) in the NFC West race.  The Seahawks’ defense had been letting the team down for the last month or so, but they showed up for real against the Niners.  Geno Smith led the winning drive in the final minutes of the game and scored on a 13-yard QB scramble to seal the deal.

Eagles 26  Commanders 18:  The Eagles’ defense finally made Jayden Daniels have a bad game; he only threw for 191 yards and only added 18 yards on the ground. The Commanders’ defense was similarly mediocre in the second half where the Eagles ran for 141 yards.  Saquon Barkley took over the second half; he rushed for 76 yards and two touchdowns.  The Eagles didn’t play anything near a “perfect” game, but they won comfortably.

Colts 28  Jets 27:  The Colts’ gave the starting QB job back to Anthony Richardson and it paid off last week. Richardson had a fine showing in the game.   He threw for 272 yards, and he engineered a game-winning TD drive where he scored what was the game-winning TD with 46 seconds left on the clock.

Dolphins 34  Raiders 19:  The Dolphins still have a shot at the playoffs but they may need to win-out; the Raiders – – not so much.  In the first half, the Raiders got inside the Dolphins’ 10-yard line twice and did not get a TD on either occasion.  The Raiders’ defense was similarly inept allowing the Dolphins to convert 8 or 12 third-down tries. The Raiders’ record this morning is 2-8; the Raiders’ season is kaput.

 

Games This Week:

 

There are six teams with BYE Weeks this weekend:

1. Bengals:  I am not quite ready to consign the Bengals to the dustbin of history in 2024 – – but I have a broom in hand.
2. Bills:  They are the class of the AFC East; they have already beaten the Chiefs.  Are they actually better than the Chiefs or the Ravens or the Steelers?  Time will tell…
3. Falcons:  They lead the NFC South over the Bucs (see above), but they have a much more challenging schedule ahead with games against the Chargers, Vikes and Commanders still on tap.
4. Jags:  They are playing out the string and the coach there, Doug Pederson, seems to be a dead man walking…
5. Jets:  The word “Jets” is an anagram for the word “Jest”.  Does that help you understand what that team is all about?
6. Saints:  They are not “out of it” – – yet…

Last night the Browns beat the Steelers in what would be called a blizzard in many parts of the US.  I enjoy watching one or two “snow games” a season; I now have one under my belt.  An interesting outcome here is the play of the Steelers’ special teams.  Those teams have been a strength for the Steelers for years including this season.  Last night the Steelers’ special teams came up short.

• The Steelers missed a field goal that would have changed the strategy of the game significantly.
• In the final 5 minutes, the Steelers punter shanked one and gave the Browns the ball around midfield allowing the Browns to put the game away.

Lions – 7.5 at Colts (50.5):  Can Anthony Richardson work some magic for a second weekend in a row here?  The Colts have to hope so, because the Lions are not going to roll over and take a nap here.

Chiefs – 11 at Panthers (43):  The Panthers come to the kickoff with a two-game winning streak and the Chiefs arrive with a one-game losing streak.  If you want to play into that “trend”, the Panthers are +470 on the Money Line.

Vikes – 3 at Bears (39):  The spread opened the week at 5.5 points and has eroded down to this number as the week progressed.  This is the third road game in a row for the Vikes.

Cowboys at Commanders – 10 (45):  The Commanders have had 10 days to ruminate on a bad loss to the Eagles while the Cowboys are simply a hot mess.   Cooper Rush and/or Trey Lance versus Jayden Daniels – – who ya got?  I think this is the biggest blowout of the day and the only interesting aspect is the degree to which Jerry Jones will devolve in explaining this latest humiliation.  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Bucs – 6 at Giants (41):  Sorry, but I am not buying that Daniel Jones was the source of all the frustration surrounding the Giants in 2924 and that a QB switch will cure everything.  “Tommy Cutlets” will make a few plays that will get the fans in a frenzy, but Baker Mayfield will do the same – – and more – – when the Bucs have the ball.

Pats at Dolphins – 7.5 (46.5):  Even when the Pats were dominant, they were not a lock to win in Miami.  This Pats team is hardly dominant, and the Dolphins are still “playoff-relevant”.  Those facts prevent this from being the Dog-Breath Game of the week.

Titans at Texans – 7.5 (39.5):  The Texans looked good in beating the Cowboys last week – – but the Cowboys have a way of making just about any opponent look good.

• [Aside:  The games above are the 1:00 PM ET games for this weekend; there’s not a lot of tension and drama generated there, and the card is not much of an enticement to tune in …]

Broncos – 6.5 at Raiders (41): The Broncos looked good beating the Falcons last week and played the Chiefs tough the week before that.  Meanwhile, the Raiders are having trouble with the basics of football such as blocking and tackling.  I agree with the oddsmakers that this will be a low-scoring game, and I like to take points in such games if the underdog seems to be viable.  I think the Raiders’ defense can play well enough to confuse Bo Nix sufficiently to keep this within a TD; I’ll take the Raiders plus the points at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Cards at Seahawks pick ‘em (47.5):  This is not the Game of the Week in terms of the teams and matchup, but it is probably as important a game relative to the standings as anything on the card for the weekend,

Niners at Packers – 3 (47):  This game looked a lot more enticing as a “must-see event” back in early September.

(Sun Nite) Eagles – 3 at Rams (49):   I think this is the Game of the Week in terms of team capabilities and relevance in the standings.  The Rams need this game to stay relevant in the NFC West; the Eagles need the game because they will see the Commanders/Cowboys result before they kick off here.

(Mon Nite) Ravens – 3 at Chargers (51):  If Eagles/Rams is not the Game of the Week, then this one is.  How many crowd shots of Mama and Papa Harbaugh will happen here?  I’ll set the Over/Under at 6.5…  The Ravens can make up ground on the Steelers with a win here; the Chargers need to win to stay in their comfy wildcard slot.  I like the Chargers at home plus points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Missouri – 7 over Mississippi St.
• Colorado – 2.5 over Kansas
• Raiders +6.5 against Broncos
• Chargers +3 against Ravens.

And just for fun, here are five Money Line Parlays:

• Lions @ minus-360
• Chiefs @ minus-570
• Commanders @ minus-520
• Texans @ minus-380     $100 wager to win $126

And …

• Lions @ minus-360
• Chiefs @ minus-570
• Chargers @ +130     $100 wager to win $245

And …

• Commanders @ minus-520
• Lions @ minus-360
• Vikes @ minus-180   $100 wager to win $137

And …

• SMU @ minus-320
• Colorado @ minus-130   $100 wager to win $132

And …

• Penn St. @ minus-365
• Iowa @ minus-220
• Missouri @ minus-300     $100 wager to win $147

Finally, we hear from Vince Lombardi:

“Show me a good loser, and I’ll show you a loser.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Yesterday afternoon, the NY Jets fired their GM, Joe Douglas.  This comes soon on the heels of firing the head coach, Robert Saleh earlier in the season.  This morning, there is a report at CBSSports.com saying that Jets’ owner, Woody Johnson, wanted to bench Aaron Rodgers after the Jets lost to the Broncos in Week 4 of this year.  [Aside:  The Jets’ backup QB is Tyrod Taylor.]  This must be an unusual level of turmoil even for Jets’ fans who have continued to follow a team that has only posted 2 winning seasons since 2010.

My first thought here was that Jets’ fans might want to root for President-elect Trump to appoint Johnson to the job Johnson held in the first Trump administration – – US Ambassador to the UK.  That would remove him from the “leadership role” Johnson executes with the Jets and keep him busy elsewhere.  But then I wondered how the Jets performed in the time when Christopher Johnson – – Woody’s brother and co-owner of the Jets – – was leading the way.

Woody Johnson served as US Ambassador to the UK from November 2017 until January 2021.  Essentially, Christopher Johnson was in charge of the 2018 – 2020 iterations of the Jets.  Here are the data:

• 2018:  Jets were 4-12 and last in the AFC East.  Fired coach Todd Bowles
• 2019:  Jets were 7-9 and 3^rd in the AFC East.  Hired coach Adam Gase
• 2020:  Jets were 2-14 and last in the AFC East.  Fired coach Adam Gase.

            Let us just agree to say that the years under Christopher Johnson’s guidance were something less than an unalloyed success.  So, maybe Jets’ fans should not be trying to whisper in President-elect Trump’s ear…

So, the Jets’ will do a thorough housecleaning in the upcoming off-season.  Soon, you will be reading about rumors related to whom Johnson’s people are talking to about which job and etc.  Before that speculation begins and then turns fanciful, let me ask a rational question:

• If you were a  young hot prospect in the NFL coaching universe looking for a place to launch your career that will hopefully land you a slot in the Pro Football Hall of Fame as a coach, would you take the Jets’ job in 2025?

You can answer that question from two perspectives:

1. As noted above, the Jets have been a miserable failure as a team for at least the last 15 years and have not been in the playoffs since 2010.  So, if a young hotshot coach goes there and turns the franchise around so that it makes the playoffs in 2026 and maybe wins a game in the playoffs in 2027 and then plays for the Conference Championship in 2028, that would be a great launching to a coaching career.  OR …
2. The Jets’ roster is merely decent and not great.  Aaron Rodgers will be 41 years old, and it will cost more than $20M in cap space to move on from him.  Rodgers is also a certified prima donna who may or may not buy into any sort of new regimen offered up by a young hotshot coach. Moreover, the Jets’ record shows that they have hired “rookie head coaches” all the way back to the days of Bill Parcells in the 1990s and none of them have gone on to greater glory after their time in the Jets’ locker room.

Moving on – – but staying with the topic of NFL head coaches …  Jon Gruden signed a multi-year deal with Barstool Sports.  I have not been able to figure out exactly what he is going to do there, but Gruden does post videos on You Tube periodically and they are insightful if not spectacularly entertaining.  It is no secret that Barstool Sports’ founder, Dave Portnoy, is not highly regarded by the NFL brass.  Barstool and Portnoy himself are “pot-stirrers” in the media world and the NFL prefers to be the only one’s stirring the NFL cauldron.

As an example of Barstool’s pot-stirring, recall that when “Deflategate” was a cause celebre, several Barstool employees were arrested for staging a sit-in at NFL HQs demanding to speak to Commissioner roger Goodell about his suspension of Tom Brady.  The NFL chose to ban Barstool from its events and at one of the Super Bowl games, Portnoy allegedly produced a counterfeit media credential for himself and was “escorted out” of the stadium once he was discovered.

Recall also that Jon Gruden still has a pending lawsuit against the NFL for wrongful termination, so the combination of Barstool Sports along with an active litigant against the league is sure to produce nothing by warm feelings along Mahogany Row in NFL HQs.  I don’t know where all that is going, but it might be fun …

Finally, having mentioned Bill Parcells in passing above, let me close with two of his observations today:

“I’ll call somebody ‘dumb’ or ‘stupid’ if they make a dumb or stupid play. I don’t know any other word for it, and if they don’t like the word, that’s too bad.”

And …

“When you don’t know that you don’t know, it’s a lot different than when you do know that you don’t know.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In the Gospel of St. Matthew, it says:

“Ask and it shall be given unto you…”

In no way was St. Matthew referring to rants on this website, but a stray question that I asked last week returned a detailed answer to me.  In last week’s Football Friday, I said that I was not aware of how the Division III field for the football playoffs was populated; were there any “at large bids”?

Yesterday, I found in my inbox a communique from the “reader in Houston” who enlightened me so that I can now enlighten you.  Here is a lightly edited version of his exposition:

“There will be 40 teams in the playoffs this year, compared to 32 last year.

“There are 28 conferences, therefore 28 automatic qualifiers, referred to as Pool A.

“There is a Pool B which is set aside for independents or conferences without automatic bids. This year there are no eligible teams for Pool B.

“Lastly, there is Pool C for the final 12 at-large teams. At-large bids are determined using a new NCAA Power Index aka NPI and the football committee must weigh each of the criteria in the formula, which takes into account the following: 

1. 1. 1. Winning Percentage (40%)/Strength of Schedule (60%)
      2. Home/Away W/L percentage – since its supposedly tougher to win on the road, it uses a 1.1/0.9 to reward those wins
      3.  Quality wins, using a QW base multiplier, which is too complicated for me to understand/explain
      4.  Minimum Wins of 5, which I do understand.

“There are four brackets of 10 teams apiece. The brackets are set by the committee, grouping eight teams together in a roughly geographic manner.

“The NCAA reserves the right to seed the bracket in the interest of avoiding having to pay for extra airplane flights in the first round. If two schools are within 500 miles’ driving distance, then the road team travels by bus. If the distance is longer than 500 miles then the NCAA must fly one team to play the other.

“The #7 seed plays #10, and #8 plays #9, with the winners advancing to the second round. However, the committee has the right to juggle first-round pairings to satisfy their travel requirements, as well as keep conference foes from facing each other in the first round.

“In general, the higher seed hosts through to the national semifinals. If two equal seeds from different brackets meet in the national semifinals, the NCAA will determine who hosts. That is figured out and announced when the brackets are originally released.

“Now you know the whole story.”

The reason I brought this up in the first place was that Linfield was playing Whitworth last weekend and both schools were undefeated in conference games; the winner would win the title and get the automatic bid.  I did not know if the loser still had a chance for the playoffs.

Well, Linfield won the game – handily – giving them the automatic bid.  And, it turns out, Whitworth got one of the at large bids for Pool C.  Linfield gets a BYE for the first round of the tournament and will not play again until November 30^th; Whitworth plays this weekend against Pomona-Pitzer.  Go Wildcats!

Moving on …  Today is International Men’s Day.  Who knew?  It is a day set aside so that awareness can be brought to the myriads of issues facing men around the world such as:

• Abuse – – the recipient not the donor
• Homelessness
• Parental separation – – often caused by “Baby Daddy” walking out
• Suicide

Now that I have listed those issues, I guess I am aware of them, and I guess that you are also aware of them having read the paragraph above.  So, that means I have achieved the objective of International Men’s Day, so I’ll go sit in a rocking chair for the rest of the day and watch TV until it’s time to go fire up the grill and make some dinner.

Finally, if one were to take seriously the idea of a “Men’s Day”, perhaps one should consider this nugget from Albert Einstein:

“Try not to become a man of success, but rather try to become a man of value.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Congratulations to the Toronto Argonauts.  Yesterday, they won the 2024 Grey Cup and are the champions of the Canadian Football League.  The Argos beat the Winnipeg Blue Bombers 41-24, but it took a fourth quarter tsunami of points (24 of them to be exact) by the Argos to put the game away.  These two teams are the two most frequent participants in Grey Cup games:

• Winnipeg has played for the Grey Cup 29 times and has won the Cup 12 times.
• Toronto has played for the Grey Cup 25 times and has won the Cup 19 times.

The Blue Bombers have played for the Cup the last five times there has been a Grey Cup game going back to 2019.  [There was no CFL season in 2020 thanks to COVID.)  The Bombers have lost the last three consecutive Grey Cup games but next year the game would be a home game for the Bombers if they make it that far in the playoffs.  The 2025 Grey Cup game will happen in Winnipeg on November 16^th.

Moving on …  Down in Gainesville, FL, Gators’ fans are probably wondering if there is some sort of hex on head coaches there.  Billy Napier has been the head football coach at Florida since 2022; the Gators combined record under Napier is 16-19 which cannot sit well with the fanbase that remembers the glory days under Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer.  Consider that Napier replaced Dan Mullen whose record at Florida was 35-16 which was deemed to be intolerable.  And so, the stomach acid level regarding Napier and his functionality has been high enough to cause sales of Rolaids to spike in Alachua County.

But wait; there’s more.  Florida’s head basketball coach, Todd Golden, stands accused of sexual harassment and stalking.  He continues to coach the basketball team as the authorities investigate the charges.  The school’s student newspaper, The Alligator, reported that “multiple women” have accused Golden of inappropriate behavior and that a female student has alleged that Golden sent her “lewd photographs of himself”.  Golden denies the allegations and has said that he is cooperating with the investigation and that he is working with an attorney to consider a defamation lawsuit.

And those two coaching conundrums at Florida come on the heels of the school firing the women’s basketball coach two years ago for verbally abusing his players and “creating a toxic environment”.  So, Gator fans might have a reason to wonder what the school has done to deserve all this “outside interference”.  Well, perhaps there is a common thread there:

• Unless my construction of a time line is incorrect, the same Athletic Director at Florida hired all three of these coaches.
• Might it be that this individual needs help in selecting coaches for the teams down there?

Switching gears …  I suggested last Friday that Aaron Rodgers was a player who had failed to live up to expectations this year.  I stand by that suggestion and offer up as evidence the following data I ran across:

• Zach Wilson win percentage as starter for the Jets = .364
• Sam Darnold win percentage as starter for the Jets = .342
• Aaron Rodgers win percentage as starter for the Jets = .273.

The prosecution rests, Your Honor …

Next up …  I have often noted here that it is particularly difficult to be the successor to a great coach at the collegiate or the professional level.  Nothing short of multiple world championships seems to be sufficient for a fanbase that is used to winning and winning constantly.  Such is the case right now at Villanova with head basketball coach Kyle Neptune.  He ascended to that job in 2022 when Jay Wright decided that he had done his time in the barrel and resigned from a job that he could have had for the rest of his life.  Wright had won two national championships at Villanova and his teams were perennial participants in March Madness.

Over the last two seasons with Neptune in charge, the Wildcats have a combined record of 35-33 with no March Madness participation.  Compared to Jay Wright’s record over 21 seasons (520-197), that is enough to make people wonder if Villanova has the “Right Guy” to replace Jay Wright.  Moreover, the start of the current men’s basketball season does not auger well for the Wildcats; their current record is 2-3 with the two wins coming at the expense of Lafayette and the New Jersey Institute of Technology (unimpressive) and the three losses were against St. Joseph’s, Columbia and Virginia (also unimpressive).

Let me say this clearly.  If the expectation at Villanova is for the team to make it to the Sweet 16 this year, an early season loss to Columbia by double digits is a bad omen.

Finally, an interesting outlook from Whitey Herzog:

“The only way to make money as a manager is to win in one place, get fired and hired somewhere else.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Just as the wheels on the bus go round and round, the days of the week go round and round as well.  Here we are at Friday again meaning it is time for a Football Friday.  And so, to begin the festivities this morning, I shall look back at last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

• Picks against the spread were 2-2.  Meh!
• Money Line Parlays were 2-1 for a “profit” of $410.  Yea!

The Linfield University Wildcats extended their season record to 8-1 last week (and 6-0 in Northwest Conference games) beating Pacific Lutheran 38-10.  This week is showdown week in the Northwest Conference as Linfield travels to Spokane to play Whitworth.  Here is the “Tale of the Tape”:

• Linfield is 8-1 overall and 6-0 in conference games
• Whitworth is 9-0 overall and 6-0 in conference games.
• Linfield cumulative score for the season is 421-101.
• Whitworth cumulative score for the season is 348-142.
• The winner gets an automatic invitation to the Division III football playoffs.
• I do not know if there are “at-large slots” in that tournament.
• Go Wildcats!

My “sleeper team” for the season was Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers lost last week to UCLA by a score of 27-20 leaving them with a record of 5-4 overall and 2-4 in Big-10 games.  Nebraska needs to find one more win to become bowl-eligible this season.

 

College Football Commentary:

 

With Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech last weekend, there are four teams remaining without a loss in 2024:

• Indiana  10-0  and 7-0 in the Big 10
• Oregon  10-0 and 7-0 in the Big 10
• Army  9-0 and 7-0 in the American Conference
• BYU  9-0 and 6-0 in the Big-12

            Army faces a tough test this week against Notre Dame.  Indiana and Oregon could well meet in the Big-10 Championship Game and BYU hosts an up-and-down Kansas team this week.  Good times …

This is the time in the college football season where one poll ranking is important.  This week we can see the second iteration of the CFP Selection Committee rankings as the season starts to wind down.  All the other polls are sources of debate; that CFP poll is meaningful because it – – and it alone – – will determine the field in the College Football Playoffs starting next month.  You can find the full rankings of the Top 25 teams in a jillion places online so I will not tabulate them here but to summarize:

• There are 4 teams from the Big-10 in the rankings (Oregon, Indiana, Penn State, Ohio State).  In fact, those 4 teams are all in the Top 5.
• There are 8 teams from the SEC in the rankings with 4 teams in the Top 12 positions.
• The ACC has only 1 team in the Top 12 (Miami) and with their loss last week, they should drop out.  [Aside:  If you count Notre Dame as being sort of in the ACC for football, then there is another ACC entry in the Top 12 of the poll.]
• Boise St. remains the highest-ranking team outside of the “power conferences”.

Enough about all these good and glorious teams.  This is coming to you straight from Curmudgeon Central where the custom is to look for failures and not just successes.  As noted above – – twice in fact – – Miami lost to Georgia Tech last week in a big surprise.  Miami was minus-400 on the Money Line at the kickoff and was an 11-point favorite; nevertheless, they lost outright.  I got to see most of the game in a sportsbook and offer this observation:

• Miami QB, Cam Ward, has been touted as Heisman Trophy leading candidate.  His performance last week was a true stinker no matter what the stats might say; that game should end his potential to be named the best college football player in the nation for 2024.

Florida State continues its death spiral of a season; last week they went to South Bend to play Notre Dame and lost by a score of 52-3.  Don’t even think about looking up the stats for that game, it was as big a rout as you would imagine from the score.  The Seminoles are 1-9 overall and are dead last in the ACC standings.  Coach Mike Norvell used the opportunity of that loss to clean house, and he fired his offensive coordinator and his wide receivers coach and his defensive coordinator.  Florida State has this week off; it has two weeks under “new management” to prepare for a home game against – – hold your breath here – – Charleston Southern.

In case you are not up to speed regarding the Buccaneers of Charleston Southern, it is a Division 1-AA program.  Their record in 2024 is the same as Florida State’s record in 2024; both teams are 1-9.  The difference is that Charleston Southern has been losing to the likes of Gardner Webb, Lindenwood and Tennessee-Martin.  If the Seminoles lose that home game, the fans might resort to using real tomahawks for their “tomahawk chop” as they parade through the streets of Tallahassee.

The immense underachievement by Florida State served to provide cover for another program that has struggled in 2024.  Normally, Oklahoma State is a sold team and lots of folks projected the Cowboys to win the Big-12 this year.  Let me be polite and say nothing could have been less accurate than such projections.  As of this morning, Oklahoma State is 3 – 7 overall and 0 – 7 in Big 12 games and has lost their last 7 games in a row.

I also got to see more of Purdue than I wanted to see last week.  The Boilermakers were shut out by Ohio State and the outcome was never in doubt.  Purdue opened the season in August with a 49-0 rout of Division 1-AA Indiana State.  Since then, Purdue has only been within one score of a rival twice, since then they have lost by a cumulative score of 340 – 113.  I need not search in a Thesaurus for a descriptor here; I’ll just use UGLY.  Things do not get much better for the Boilermakers for the rest of the season:

• This week at home against Penn State
• Next week at Michigan State
• Two weeks from now at Indiana.

I wonder if the movers and shakers surrounding the USC football program are getting antsy about Lincoln Riley as the head coach there.  Riley’s record at USC is 23-13 which is certainly not bad, but Lincoln Riley was supposed to be a “trophy hire” that was going to propel USC back to the top echelon of college football programs – – and that simply has not happened even with Caleb Williams as the USC QB for more than a season.

Back in 2022, USC signed Riley to a 10-year contract worth $110M; that is what I mean by him being a “trophy hire”.  Because USC is a private school, it does not have to reveal salaries of people employed by the school, so all I can do is take what has been reported as factual.  Now if you project that Riley’s deal is for $11M per year every year of the contract, then at the end of 2024 USC would have to buy him out to the tune of $77M.  Before you say that is way too much for the school to take on, remember that Texas A&M bought out Jimbo Fisher for about the same amount in 2023…

I saved the most depressing commentary for last this week.  Kennesaw State played UTEP last week; the two teams combined to bring a record of 2-15 to the kickoff.  The game was played in El Paso; according to the Conference USA website, the attendance for the game was 14,728 folks with nothing better to do on the weekend.  Assuming they all hung in there because the game was close, those hearty souls got to endure double overtime before being paroled to the parking lot to search for their transportation home.  In the end, the home team – – the UTEP Miners – – prevailed 43-35 in a game that only has meaning here because both teams are probably going to the SHOE Tournament, and this will affect their seeding there.

Before getting to my SHOE watch list for this week, let me quickly remind everyone of the race to earn the Brothel Defense Award for 2024 – – given to the team that allows the most points per game meaning that it was easy to score on that defense:

• Ball State gives up 40.1 points per game
• Utah State gives up 42.3 points per game
• Kent State gives up 44.8 points per game

Here are a dozen teams that I have on my watch list for the end-of-season SHOE Tournament to determine the worst team in the country for 2024.  Only 8 teams will “make the cut” and there are still games to be played – – but here is my thinking as of this morning:

1. Akron – – they are 2-7 for the season and they play Kent State next Tuesday
2. Florida St. – – see above
3. Kennesaw State – – lost to UTEP last week
4. Kent State – – the only winless team in the country with a Brothel Defense candidate
5. New Mexico St. – – they are 2-7 but will get slaughtered by Texas A&M this week
6. Purdue – – see above
7. Southern Miss – – they not only lose, but they also lose BIG.
8. Temple – – their mediocre defense has collapsed recently
9. UAB – – not much to recommend this squad
10. Utah St. – – that Brothel Defense candidate has them on the list
11. UTEP – – needing double OT to beat Kennesaw St. does not get you off the list
12. Wyoming – – they are 2-7 for the season and have several blowouts on the record

 

NCAA Games of Interest This Week:

 

Florida Atlantic at Temple – 2.5 (50):  Hard to see Temple favored in a game; the loser here will solidify their image as a SHOE Team.

Tulane – 7.5 at Navy (51):  Tulane got some love from the CFP Selection Committee last week, but the Middies can be tough at home.

Clemson – 12 at Pitt (52):  Both teams are 7-2 but the Panthers have lost their last two in a row.

Penn St. – 29.5 at Purdue (50.5):  Penn State needs to continue to impress the Selection Committee and Purdue should give them plenty of opportunity to do so.

Washington St. – 11 at New Mexico (72):  Washington St. – – abandoned by the PAC-12 schools – – has posted a record of 8-1 so far this year.

Kansas at BYU – 2.5 (56.5):  BYU is undefeated and is the only Big 12 school currently in the Top 12 of the CFP.  Kansas is 3-6 overall but can put up plenty of points.  This is an important conference game.

Boston College at SMU – 19 (54):  Perhaps, SMU is the best team in the ACC this year?  You do realize that SMU is part of the ACC, don’t you?

Tennessee at Georgia – 9.5 (47):  This is the college Game of the Week.  A loss for Georgia will eliminate them from the SEC Championship and will probably knock them out of the at large invitation list for the CFP.  The Vols have only 1 conference loss as to Texas and Texas A&M, so they too need this game to keep pace.  Latest word is that Georgia RB, Trevor Etienne, will not play this week.  Tennessee QB, Nico Iamaleava has been in concussion protocol this week and is questionable.  Proceed at your own risk…

Cincy at Iowa St. – 7.5 (53):  Both teams threw in clunkers last week; this could be a game where the team that makes the last mistake loses the game.

Utah at Colorado – 10 (44.5):  Watch out for the Buffaloes; they are 7-2 with only one loss in the conference.  Utah is injury-riddled and lost a heartbreaker last week to its huge rival, BYU.  I think the Utes will have a hangover here, so I’ll take Colorado to win and cover at home; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

LSU – 4 at Florida (54):  LSU got spanked at home last week by Alabama.  It will be interesting to see how they react to that.  I do not understand the total Line here at all.  Both teams have solid offenses (Florida reportedly will get its QB back in action this week) and neither defense is “lights out”.  I think this game goes OVER; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

Nebraska at USC – 7.5 (51.5):  Time is running out for my “sleeper team” to make it to a bowl game this year.

 

NFL Commentary

 

Here is a stat I ran across after the Eagles/Cowboys game last weekend.  The Cowboys are the first team in NFL history to trail by 20 or more points in five consecutive home games.

• The Cowboys were down by 32 to the Packers in last year’s wild-card playoff game
• This year they trailed by 25 to the Saints; they trailed by  22 to the Ravens; they trailed by 38 to the Lions; and they trailed by 28 to the Eagles last week.
• ‘Murica’s team …

With the NFL season turning the corner and heading home, I want to suggest a few outstanding awards – – positive and negative to be sure – – for the first half of the NFL season.  The first one is for Coach Of the Year:

• Dan Quinn – – Commanders:  He and the GM have totally made over last year’s roster and the team is both competitive and fun to watch
• Mike Tomlin – – Steelers:  With all the questions surrounding the QB situation there, Tomlin hassled the team to the lead in the AFC North at the halfway point.
• Jonathan Gannon – – Cards:  He has the team in the lead in the NGFC West and the Cards have not lost in division games yet; everyone else has at least 1 division loss.

And of course, we should think about the Not-so-good Coach of the Year ignoring those coaches who have already been fired:

• Matt Eberflus – – Bears:  The Bears are 4-5 which looks good until you see that they are winless on the road, and they have yet to play against any of their strong division opponents.  This season could go south quickly…
• Brian Daboll – – Giants:  the Giants are 2-8 and the only “energy” on the sidelines comes from Daboll when he is cursing out an official over a call he disagrees with.
• Antonio Pierce – – Raiders:  He was supposed to be a players’ coach who had the guys ready to walk through fire for him.  Let’s just say that seems not to be the case.
• Doug Pederson – – Jags:  He was supposed to be the guy to make Trevor Lawrence into a super-star.  ‘Nuff said…

            Now consider the teams that have Most Over-Performed expectations:

• Washington Commanders:  They were a disorganized and dispirited bunch last year and this year they are probably going to make the playoffs – – and have a shot to win their division.
• Pittsburgh Steelers:  I put them as a distant second here because even with the QB questions facing the team, no one really expected to see the Steelers at the bottom rung in their division.  They have overachieved to be sure, but not by as much as the Commanders.

            So, which teams have Most-Under-Performed expectations:

• Dallas Cowboys:  Remember, they were all-in for the Super Bowl in 2024.  Yeah, right…
• NY Jets:  With a healthy Aaron Rodgers (stay tuned) they were supposed to present a serious challenge to the Bills in the AFC East.  At 3-7, the Jets are 5 full games behind the Bills and have already lost 2 division games.
• Cincy Bengals:  The record is 4-6 but it is a miserable 1-4 at home.  Yuck.

            Consider the players who have Most Exceeded Expectations so far in 2024:

• Jayden Daniels:  Yes, he was the overall #2 pick in last year’s Draft, but did anyone expect him to be this good this quickly?
• Russell Wilson:  He was portrayed as “washed up” after the Broncos released him and people wondered why the Steelers brought him in.
• Sam Darnold:  He has led the Vikes to a 7-2 record; he is completing 69% of his passes and has thrown for 238 yards per game this season.

And of course, the players who have Most Failed to Meet Expectations:

• Aaron Rodgers:  The Jets average only 17.7 points per game with a healthy Aaron Rodgers.  The Jets’ record is 3-7; at this point last hear, the Jets had 4 wins with Zack Wilson and his band of merry men playing QB.
• Patrick Mahomes:  There is a surprise.  Yes, the Chiefs are undefeated at 9-0 but Mahomes has only averaged 245 yards per game passing which is not that much better than Sam Darnold (see above).  Also, like Darnold, Mahomes completes 69% of his passes.  Would you have believed me if I had forecast that back in August?

Some comments on games from last week:

Saints 20  Falcons 17:  If you look at the stats, you will be sure the Falcons won the game.  They outgained the Saints by 103 yards and held the ball for just over 35 minutes in the game.  They ran 73 plays to the Saints 52 plays.  How did this happen?  The Falcons missed 3 field goals in the game including one in the last 5 minutes that would have tied the game.

Niners 23  Bucs 20:  Speaking of missed field goals, the Niners missed 3 field goals in the first 55 minutes of the game and then made one to take the lead with 40 seconds left.  There had to be some sweaty palms on the Niners’ sideline as the team lined up for that one.

Chiefs 16  Broncos 14:  And how did this game end?  The Broncos set up for a chip shot field goal that would give the Chiefs their first loss in 2024.  Except, the Chiefs blocked the try and came away with another win.

Cards 31  Jets 6:  Yes, it was as bad as it looks; the Jets were shut out in the second half and the offense only gained 207 yards in the game.  However, the defense was also a no-show for the Jets; here is Kyler Murray’s stat line:

• 22 of 24 for 266 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs

Eagles 34  Cowboys 6:  The Eagles offense made a rout of the game in the second half, but it was the Eagles’ defense that caught my attention.  The cowboys’ total Offense for the game was 146 yards and only 49 yards passing.  Moreover, the defense created 5 turnovers.

 

Games This Week:

 

Four teams have BYE Weeks this time around:

1. Bucs:  When you lose both of your top WRs for lengthy periods of time, things get pretty bleak.  The Bucs can use some time off.
2. Cards:  They have won 4 in a row and lead the NFC West.  This should be an upbeat time in Arizona.
3. Giants:  I am not sure much of anything is going to right the ship there; fans should start paying close attention to college football and thinking about Draft position.
4. Panthers:  The team is on a two-game winning streak and has already won more games in 2024 than it did in 2023.  Hoo-ray!

Last night the Eagles beat the Commanders 26-18.  Just to carry forward the kicking woes evident last year, Eagles’ kicker Jake Elliott missed two field goals and missed an extra point in the game.  It did not matter in the end because Saquon Barkley ran for 146 yards and 2 TDs in the game and the Eagles converted 9 of 16 third-down situations.

Packers – 5.5 at Bears (40.5):  The Total Line opened at 44 points, so this represents a significant drop during the week.  The Packers need this game to stay in the running for the division title.  I suspect this could be the start of a tailspin for the Bears.

Browns – 1 at Saints (44):  Woof!  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  These are two teams going nowhere in a meaningless inter-conference contest.  The only marginally interesting angle here is that it is a “revenge game” for Jameis Winston as he returns to play the Saints.  Feel free to ignore this one.

Rams – 5 at Pats (43,5):  The Rams are still relevant in the NFC West but that is a long journey for them to play an early time slot game.  Drake Maye has been showing some positive potential recently for the Pats.

Ravens – 3 at Steelers (48):  This is my runner-up for the Game of the Week.  The winner here will be in first place in the AFC North on Sunday night.  The Steelers have a good defense, but the Ravens can score on anyone.  Meanwhile, the Ravens’ defense is only one step away from being a serious liability.  I think this is a scoring-fest; I like the game to go OVER; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

Raiders at Dolphins – 7 (44):  This game has Dog-Breath potential; the teams combine to bring a record of 5-13 to the field.  However, the Dolphins might have some breath left in them now that they have most of their starters back from injury.  Check out this game in the Money Line Parlays below.

Jags at Lions – 14 (47) The Total Line opened here at 51 points, so this is another significant line move during the week.  The Jags just lost two in a row at home and now must go and play one of the top teams in the NFC on the road.  I do not bet double-digit spreads in the NFL, but this one smells like a disaster for the Jags.

Vikes – 6 at Titans (39.5):  this is an important game for the Vikes as they are a game behind the Lions in the NFC North; for the Titans it is just another game on the schedule.

Seahawks at Niners – 6.5 (48):  This is a division game where the current division leader is only a game-and-a-half ahead of the last place team in the division.  The Niners are getting people back off IR and the Seahawks’ defense is very porous.

Falcons at Broncos – 2 (44):  The spread opened with the falcons favored by 2 points but the line has reversed as the week went on.  The Broncos have the better defense, and the Falcons have the better offense here. Po-TAY-toe and Po-TAH-toe…

Chiefs at Bills – 2 (46):  This is the Game of the Week matching up two division leaders and a combined record of 17-2.  Just sit back with some tasty snacks and watch this game because it will be a good one.

Colts at Jets – 4 (43):  This one also got some consideration as a Dog-Breath game.  The Jets lost last week, and the Colts have lost three in a row.  See above for why the Jets have been “disappointing this year” and then recognize that the Colts will be starting Anthony Richardson at QB.  If you think about betting on this game, consider a lottery ticket as an alternative gambling strategy.

(Sun Nite) Bengals at Chargers – 1 (47):  The Chargers trail the Chiefs by 3 games and will know the result of the Chiefs/Bills game at kickoff time.  The Bengals have already lost 6 games this year and may have to win out to make the playoffs in the AFC.  I smell another offensive explosion game here; I like the game to go OVER; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Mon Nite) Texans – 7 at Cowboys (42):  Can the Cowboys find a way to trail by 20 or more points again in this home game?  (See above)  The Texans have lost two games in a row but still lead their division by 2 full games; the Cowboys have lost 4 in a row and have looked overmatched in all of them.

So, let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Colorado – 10 over Utah
• LSU/Florida OVER 54
• Bengals/Chargers OVER 47
• Ravens/Steelers OVER 48

And some Money Line parlays just for fun:

• Dolphins @ minus-340
• Niners @ minus-280
• Packers @ minus-240   $100 wager to win $149

And …

• Vikes @ minus-250
• Broncos @ minus 125   $100 wager to win $152

And …

• Colorado @ minus-400
• Memphis @ minus-700
• Washington St. @ minus-420
• Clemson @ minis -440   $100 wager to win $117

Finally, words of wisdom from Vince Lombardi:

“Winning is not a sometime thing; it’s an all the time thing. You don’t win once in a while… you don’t do things right once in a while… you do them right all the time. Winning is habit.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Let me start today with a TV viewing recommendation for this weekend.  If you have not yet seen Boise St. running back, Ashton Jeanty, the game between Boise St. and San José St. will be telecast on the CBS Sports Network at 7:00 PM ET on Saturday.  If you have access to that network, I strongly suggest you make that viewing choice in that TV time slot.

Jeanty is a junior; he has spent his entire career at Boise St and has been a starter and a major contributor since he was a freshman.

• In his first year, he averaged 11 carries per game and 5.3 yards per carry.
• As a sophomore, those numbers improved to 18 carries per game and 6.1 yards per carry.
• So far this year in 9 games he is averaging 25 carries per game and 7.7 yards per carry.

As of this morning he has amassed 1734 yards rushing – – with 23 TDs no less – – and is on pace to gain more yardage in a season than anyone other than Barry Sanders.  In 1968, Sanders gained 2628 yards rushing along with 37 TDs.  Jeanty would need to break that record to win the Heisman Trophy but regardless of that situation, he is someone you ought to see.  He is listed as 5’ 9” and 216 pounds.  He can run over people; he can break tackles and not too many DBs can match his speed once he gets open.  This is a player at a small school you should see for yourself and not just read about.

Moving on …  The Bears fired their offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, this week.  In 9 games this year, the Bears are averaging under 20 points per game and that includes two games against the Panthers and the Jags whose defenses are not exactly stout.  Two weeks ago, the Bears scored 9 points in a loss to the Cards and last week the Bears scored all of 3 points in a loss to the Pats.  Moreover, in that loss to the Pats, the Bears’ Total Offense for the game was 142 yards and the Bears only converted one of fourteen third-down situations.

Obviously, something had to change, and it is too late in the year to go out and find a whole slew of better players – – so the offensive coordinator gets the axe.  There is another telling stat for the Bears’ offense that might indicate a deeper problem than the guy who draws up the game plans and calls the plays:

• In 9 games, the Bears OL has allowed 38 sacks – – more than 4 per game.

Waldron’s replacement will be Thomas Brown who is being promoted from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator.  All I can say there is that the Bears’ passing game has not been an unalloyed success this season …

Staying with NFL teams making changes …  The Indy Colts announced this week that they will put Joe Flacco back on the bench and return Anthony Richardson to the field as the starting QB “for the rest of the season”.  I think that decision is an interesting one:

• The Colts’ record is 4-6.  Currently, there are 7 teams in the AFC with 5 or fewer losses.  The AFC will have 7 playoff participants.
• The Colts are hardly “out of the running”.  The Colts schedule from here to Week 18 is relatively soft with winnable games against the Jets, Pats, Titans, Giants and Jags coming up.
• Regarding the question of which QB is better in 2024, I don’t think there is a clear answer.  Richardson is a raw athletic talent who runs hot and cold; Flacco is much less volatile in his performances; his highs are not as high as Richardson and his lows are not as low.

The reason I think this decision is interesting is that it just might be an indication that the Colts’ braintrust has come to the point where they need to know if Anthony Richardson is a QB worthy of being the centerpiece of an NFL franchise.  Joe Flacco is two months shy of his 40^th birthday; he has shown that he can be a competent backup QB but in no known universe is he a player who can be the anchor of a franchise looking ahead to 2025 and beyond.  Father Time has precluded that option.

So, this decision is like throwing Richardson in the deep end of the swimming pool and telling him to make it to the ladder to climb out.  In addition to those 5 games listed above against mediocre-at-best teams, there are two other tough games left against the Lions and the Broncos.  I suspect those two games where the Colts would appear to be underdogs will be important as measuring sticks for Anthony Richardson.

Let the games begin …

Finally, let me close today with two quotes from my favorite curmudgeon, H. L. Mencken:

“Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”

And …

“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Friday the Thirteenth fell on a Wednesday this month.  Funny how that happens sometimes …

The NBA regular season is underway.  I feel the need to remind folks about this because almost no one cares about the NBA while the NFL is still in operation even though the NBA has just begun its in-season NBA Cup competition that was intended to grab everyone’s attention.  Now you know – – at least – – that the NBA Cup games have begun, meaning that you can ignore them instead of merely being oblivious to their existence.

There is one thing about the NBA that might be interesting to think about having nothing to do with the slog of games being presented.  The NBA should be poised for expansion.  The Commish said that a new CBA and a new media rights deal were more important than expansion and that any thought of expansion would have to wait until those bigger things were done.  Well, they are done – – and that means expansion should be under consideration.

The NBA has 30 teams; mathematically, a league with 32 teams is more balanced.  So, if the NBA were to expand, the logical thinking would be to find two new cities – – or at least one new city in Year 1 and then another new city in Year 2.  So, where might the NBA find new homes?

• Las Vegas:  The success of the NHL franchise and the off-field success of the NFL franchise there have made Las Vegas the top attraction for expansion by the NBA.  The city would have to come up with a new arena and in a site that is considered “posh” by the league and the prospective owners and real estate along the Strip and in the downtown area is not plentiful.
• Kansas City:  They have an arena, and they have other pro franchises that have survived there for a long time.
• Seattle:  They had a team there in the past that drew well until it needed a new arena to maintain competitiveness.  When that was not forthcoming, the team was sold and moved to Oklahoma City.  That hurdle has been crossed with the construction of a new arena that is home to the NHL’s Seattle Kraken.
• Vancouver:  They too used to have a team.  Maybe like Seattle it is worth a try for a new franchise?  The NBA seeks to have an “international image” so adding a Canadian team would assist the league on that dimension.

            As I look at that list, it is “unbalanced” to the western portion of the North American continent.  Certainly, Las Vegas, Seattle and Vancouver would have to be added to the NBA’s Western Conference and Kansas City is a more “western” venue than it is an “eastern” venue.  Such additions would mean that one current team in the Western Conference would have to be shuffled to the Eastern Conference to have 16 teams in both conferences.  Should that become necessary here are the candidates for “Conference Relocation”

• Minnesota:  The Wolves are close enough to Chicago, Detroit and Milwaukee to have natural rivalries develop.
• Memphis:  The Grizzlies are in a “no-man’s land” regarding close by rivalry cities in the West as well as in the East.

Some folks may be thinking that the NBA would not be best served by diluting the talent in the league any more than it is now; it seems as if there are at least a half-dozen – – and maybe ten – – teams that are talent-deficient to the point that they have no realistic chance to do anything more than make a cameo appearance in the playoffs six months from now.  And that thinking would be far closer to correct than to mistaken.

HOW-EVAH, here is why expansion is going to happen one of these days soon – –  geography and talent availability be damned:

• The last NBA franchise that was sold went for $4B.  That was the asking price for the Phoenix Suns and that was the purchase price.
• So, let me assume that the absolute smallest buy-in fee for two new owners would be $3.5B apiece.  More likely it will be $4B, but just to make a point let me pretend that the NBA owners would exhibit generosity to the new “fraternity members”.
• That gives the league $7B to divvy up.  Assume the NBA Front Office takes 5% off the top.  That leaves 6.65B to go to the existing owners and that comes out to be $221.7M each.
• Money talks and bullsh*t walks …

Having gone through the reasons why the league will want to expand, how would the NBPA respond to such a proposal by the league.  My guess is that the NBPA would take the suggestion under advisement because that is the professional thing that a union does to any management proposal and would do everything in its power to pretend to study the proposal before agreeing that it is a good idea because it would give the union more members.  Those sorts of ideas that increase membership are near and dear to the hearts of labor unions everywhere.

Finally, since today had been about money – – and lot of it – – let me close with these observations about money:

“When I was young I thought that money was the most important thing in life; now that I am old I know that it is.”  [Oscar Wilde]

And …

“Money can’t buy love, but it improves your bargaining position.”  [Christopher Marlowe]

And …

“I’ve got all the money I’ll ever need, if I die by four o’clock.”  [Henny Youngman]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Trust me, I know.  This is supposed to be a Football Friday but because this weekend is a reunion of the core of the “Las Vegas Crowd”, most of this is being written on Thursday.  If you will allow for a breaking story or two that is not accounted for here, I will do my best to make this interesting.

• Last week’s Betting Bundle had 4 picks and the record was 3-1-0.  Not bad.
• Last week’s Money Line Parlays went 1-2 for a net loss of a supposed $100.  Not good.

Time to check in on the Linfield University Wildcats football season.  Last week Linfield was on the road against Pacific University for a Northwest Conference game; Linfield won that game 68-28 stretching their record for 2024 to 7-1.  Linfield remains undefeated in Northwest Conference competition, and they are at home this week for another conference game against Pacific Lutheran.  The Lutes are 6-2 over the course of the 2024 season and are 4-1 in Northwest Conference games.  This is an important game because the conference winner will get an invitation to the Division III national playoffs.  Go Wildcats!

My “sleeper team” for 2024 was identified as the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  Last week Nebraska lost at home to UCLA keeping the team one win away from bowl-eligibility in 2024.    Nebraska is now 5-4 on the season having lost their last three games in a row.  Here is the upcoming schedule where the Huskers need to find one more win to get themselves to a minor bowl game:

• At USC (next weekend)
• Vs. Wisconsin
• At Iowa

None of those games looks to be a “gimmee”; Nebraska will have to earn its trip to a bowl game if indeed they qualify for one …

 

College Football Commentary:

 

If I have counted correctly, there are only 5 undefeated teams left in Division 1-A ranks as of this morning:

• Army is 8-0
• BYU is 8-0
• Indiana is 9-0
• Miami is 9-0
• Oregon is 9-0

For the record, the last time Army went undefeated for the season was in 1958; the last time Oregon went undefeated for the season was in 1916 and the last time Indiana went undefeated for the season was in 1945.  Stay tuned; this could get interesting …

The Cornhuskers may need to manufacture a win as an underdog to get to a bowl game this year; such is not the case for the UConn Huskies who – – more years than not – – are SHOE Tournament candidates.  The Huskies have won their sixth game already and will find themselves invited to one of the myriad minor bowl games – – perhaps the WGARA Bowl where WGARA is the acronym for

• Who Gives A Rat’s Ass.

Vandy continues to try to lay claim to the most surprising college football team for 2024; last week they beat Auburn 17-7 on the road at Auburn and shut out Auburn in the second half of the game.  If you think that is a minor point, consider that this is the first time ever that Vandy has ever won on the road against Auburn and that Vandy has been playing intercollegiate football – – albeit not against Auburn every year – – since 1890.

The Auburn loss in this game gives the Tigers a record of 3-6 with an SEC record of 1-5.  Here is why that is bad news:

• Auburn hired Coach Huge Freeze to “right the ship” after Auburn suffered 2 consecutive losing seasons.
• Auburn was 6-7 under Freeze last season which was below .500 but it was an improvement.
• The remaining schedule for 2024 includes Texan A&M (7-2 overall) and Alabama (7-2 overall) along with La-Monroe after a BYE this weekend.
• Auburn needs to run the table to make it to a bowl game …
• Oh, just for giggles, the Vandy win in this game makes Vandy bowl-eligible more than two weeks before Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile, S. Carolina beat Texas A&M   44- 20.  I said last week that this might well be a let-down game for the Aggies – – and it was.  Nevertheless, the Aggies are still one of 5 teams in the SEC with only 1 conference loss as of today.  The rest of the SEC football season should be interesting.

In other SEC action, Ole Miss came back to life and demolished Arkansas 63-31.  The Rebels’ QB, Jaxon Dart, had himself a feast.  He threw for 500 yards and 6 TDs against the Razorbacks who seemed to be playing the game in slo-mo.  Ole Miss is 7-2 overall in 2024 and they have 2 conference losses.  However, they have an upcoming game against Georgia this week; Georgia is one of the SEC teams with only 1 conference loss; so, Ole Miss is not out of it just yet.

UAB was 1-6 going into last week’s scheduled game against Tulsa.  UAB was almost assuredly going to be on my “watch list” for the SHOE Tournament.  At halftime of the game against Tulsa, UAB was on top by a score of 45-7 and they “held on” to win 59-21.  Absent some sort of cataclysmic collapse, UAB probably escaped SHOE Tournament consideration for the year.

Indiana ran its record to 9-0 for the season on the road against Michigan State.  It was another blowout for the Hoosiers winning by a score of 47-10.  Here is a great stat from that game:

• Indiana held Michigan State to 12 yards rushing on 31 attempts.
• That works out to be 4.6 INCHES per rush attempt.

Penn State came up short against Ohio State at home again 20-13.  The Buckeyes have now won 8 games in a row over the Nittany Lions.  Penn St. had the ball inside the Ohio St. 5-yardline twice and scored zero points on those two possessions. There’s no way to pretend that was a positive set of circumstances; this extends James Franklin’s record against Ohio St. to 1-10.  Oof …

In ACC action, UNC spanked Florida St. 35-11; it may not have been that close.  UNC outgained Florida St. 500 yards on offense to 201 yards on offense.  The Seminoles record has cratered to 1-8 as of today …

SMU beat previously undefeated Pitt by a score of 48-25.  SMU is 8-1 overall and is 5-0 in conference games; the Mustangs are tied with the Miami Hurricanes atop the ACC with a 5-0 record in conference.  Just so you know, SMU and Miami are not scheduled to meet in the regular season – – but there is the ACC Championship Game and then the CFP to consider.

Louisville beat Clemson 33-21 last week making the Mustangs one of only two teams with no losses in ACC games this year.  Miami and Louisville lead the conference this morning, but Clemson and Pitt have only one conference loss each.  That race should be interesting …

Things did not go “according to plan” in the Big 12 last week.  Iowa St. was undefeated and ranked #11 last week.  The Cyclones lost outright to UCF 23-22.  That leaves BYU as the only team in the Big 12 with an unblemished record in conference games.  BYU has 4 games left on their dance card:

• At Utah – – HUGE rivalry game
• Vs Kansas – – Jayhawks have underperformed expectations this year but are still dangerous
• At Arizona St. – – The Sun Devils are 6-2 overall this morning
•  Vs Houston – – The Cougars are 4-5 for the season

Checking in on the contenders for the Brothel Defense Award for 2024:

• New Mexico (3-6 overall) gives up 40.8 points per game
• Utah State (2-6 overall) gives up 41.5 points per game
• Kent State  (0-8 overall) gives up 46.6 points per game.

And now it is time to begin a serious look at the teams who deserve – – nay, demand – – an invitation to the imaginary SHOE Tournament.  I have 12 teams on my “Watch List” this week and I will present them in alphabetical order lest anyone think I have made up my mind on any of these bad teams:

1. Air Force – – 1-7
2. Akron – – 2-7  The Zips seem to be appropriately named.
3. Florida St – – 1-8
4. Kennesaw St, – – 1-7
5. Kent State – – 0-9
6. New Mexico St – – 2-7   Aggies close out the season at home against UTEP.
7. Southern Mississippi – – 1-7
8. Purdue – – 1-7
9. Temple – – 3-6
10. Tulsa – – 3-6  Forget 3 wins, they lost to a 2-win UAB team by 38 points last week
11. UMass – – 2-7
12. UTEP – – 1-8 Plays Kennesaw St. this week.  Oh joy!

 

NCAA Games of Interest this Week:

 

(Fri Nite) Iowa – 6 at UCLA (45):  For the 4^th time this year, Iowa scored 40 points or more in a game.  Should not happen again here…

Virginia at Pitt – 7 (57):  The Panthers’ offense could run roughshod in this contest because the Cavaliers’ defense allows just a tad under 28 points per game.

Iowa St. – 3 at Kansas (50):  The Cyclones laid an egg last week against UCF (see above).   Was that the start of a decline or were they looking ahead to this game?

Miami – 10.5 at Georgia Tech (64.5):  Miami is still undefeated; Ga. Tech is one of those teams that is not good enough to be in the Top 10 but just good enough to be a tough out for teams that are in the Top 10.

Navy – 3 at USF (58):  Navy has lost two in a row after starting out the season with six straight wins.

Purdue at Ohio St. – 38 (54):  A CFP team hosts a SHOE candidate.  Oh my …

Nevada at Boise St. – 24 (61):  Nevada gives up 156.4 yards per game on the ground.  Boise St. averages 267.9 yards per game on the ground.  I wonder what the game plan here might be …

Colorado – 3.5 at Texas Tech (63):  Colorado has 1 conference loss; Texas Tech has 2 conference losses; this is a big game.

Georgia – 2.5 at Ole Miss (53):  The Rebels rank 2^nd in the nation in Total Offense per game (555.4 yards per game).  The Dawgs rank 12^th in the nation in Total Defense (295.3 yards per game).  A loss for Ole Miss might eliminate them from CFP consideration.  I’ll side with the Georgia defense here and take the Dawgs on the road to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

South Carolina – 3.5 at Vandy (45):  Both teams rely on their defenses …

Army – 5 at North Texas (64):  Army seeks to remain undefeated in 2024 …

Maryland at Oregon – 25 (58):  The Terps take a long airplane ride for the purpose of taking a tail-kicking …

Michigan at Indiana – 14.5 (50):  If I had written that line back in August, you would have thought I was onto some new hallucinogen here in Curmudgeon Central …

Washington at Penn St. – 13.5 (46):  An important game for Penn St.  They need to rebound from last week’s loss to Ohio St.

Kennesaw St. at UTEP – 4 (42.5):  SHOE candidate versus SHOE candidate.  The epitome of ugliness for the week …

Florida St. at Notre Dame – 26 (42.5):  A CFP aspirant hosts a team seeking to avoid the SHOE Tournament.

Alabama – 2.5 at LSU (57):  LSU has 1 conference loss; Alabama has 2 conference losses.  Playing in Baton Rouge at night is never easy.  This is the College Game of the Week.  The loser here will probably not make it to the CFP.

BYU – 3.5 at Utah (40.5):  This is the biggest rivalry game on tap for this week.  BYU is undefeated and ranked such that they would get a CFP bid as of this morning.  Utah is a tough defensive squad dealing with plenty of injuries.  I think BYU stays unbeaten here and covers in a low scoring affair; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary

 

My comments this week will focus on some of the less-than-positive situations surrounding some NFL QBs.  Let me start with Derek Carr of the Saints.  In Week 17, Carr and the Saints will host the Las Vegas Raiders in what appears today to be a meaningless game; both teams are 2-7 as of this morning.  Nonetheless, circle that game on your calendar – – not for watching but for following.  Here’s why:

• Derek Carr has now played in games where he has lost to 31 of the 32 NFL teams.
• Derek Carr has never lost to the Raiders – – because he used to play for the Raiders, and one cannot lose to oneself in football.
• No QB has ever achieved that level of frustration.  It could happen on December 29, 2024.

But wait … If Derek Carr manages to dodge that infamy, there is another NFL QB who might be in the crosshairs of such a status.

• Joe Flacco has lost to 30 of the 32 NFL teams.
• One of the teams never to have lost to a Flacco-quarterbacked team is the Lions.
• The Lions will play the Colts on Nov. 24^th this year.  If Flacco is still starting for the Colts there, the Lions will be favored in the game…
• That would mean that Joe Flacco might lose to all 32 teams should he ever face the Bucs and lose.

Having mentioned these potential accomplishments related to losing, let me inject here a thought from Morgan Wooten:

“You learn more from losing than winning.  You learn how to keep going.”

Two weeks ago, Jameis Winston was pressed into service as the starting QB for the Browns after Deshaun Watson injured his leg.  The Browns won that game, and Winston was the hero with a game-closing TD pass capping a 300+ yard passing performance.  Well, last week, Jameis Winston reverted to the mean; he threw three INTs, and the Browns lost to the Chargers 27-10.

The Giants’ QB situation is similarly yo-yo-like; Daniel Jones can be very good one week and mystifyingly awful the next.  Consider his stat line from the first half of last week’s game where the Giants lost to the Commanders 27-22:

• 4 of 6 for ZERO yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs

Meanwhile, Jags’ QB, Trevor Lawrence, looks at Jones’ first half stats and smiles because those stats are so bizarre that they obfuscate how poorly he played in the first half last week against the Eagles.  Here is the story:

• 4 of 10 for 23 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT

Leaving QB issues aside for a moment, there was another bit of strangeness in the NFL last week.  The Cowboys not only benched RB, Ezekiel Elliott, but they left him home and did not have him accompany the team on the road in Atlanta.  That situation was explained by saying it was a “disciplinary issue”; after the game, there has been reporting that Elliott had been late to several meetings and then simply blew off a scheduled meeting and never showed up at all.

It isn’t strange for teams to discipline players for missing meetings; that happens every season.  What is strange here is who was punished.  Remember, after the Cowboys lost RB Tony Pollard to free agency, GM Jerry Jones brought Elliott back to Dallas with a goodly amount of fanfare; the vibe was super-positive; Zeke had come home where he belonged.  And now this …?

Speaking of the Cowboys, I wonder if it might make more long-range sense for the team to start Trey Lance at QB for the next several weeks.  Yes, when Dak Prescott is back from his hamstring injury, the team will have to start the guy they are paying $60M per year, but Dak will be on the shelf for about a month and that might be an opportunity in this sense:

• The Cowboys are a long shot to make the playoffs in 2024.
• They know what they have and what they can expect from Cooper Rush as their backup QB.  He is a model backup; he can be inserted into a game on the fly, and he can play a few games when needed without embarrassing himself or the team.
• They do not know what they have and what they might expect from Trey Lance.  So, maybe they should try and find out because if Lance also shows as a model backup QB, that might give the team a trade asset because teams normally do not keep 2 backups on the same roster.

The problem with that sort of reasoning is that it rests on a foundation that the Cowboys recognize that the 2024 NFL Playoffs are going to happen without Cowboys’ participation.  And I suspect that is not a thought that has entered the mind of Jerry Jones.

Now that the NFL season is around the half-way mark, let me pose a question for everyone here.  So far, who is the “Comeback Player of the Year”?  I think there are four candidates:

1. Joe Burrow
2. Nick Chubb
3. Kirk Cousins
4. Sam Darnold

Yes, I know that Darnold is not coming back from an injury or illness, but he is coming back to a level of prominence that has evaded him since he left USC and came to the NFL.  At the moment, my “vote” would go to Cousins – – but there are still games to be played.

The Washington Commanders are beginning to get some positive attention outside the DC area; the team is fun to watch, and they are quite good.  It has been at least 25 years since that team has been either fun to watch or quite good; the rest of the country needs to “rediscover” this franchise.

Head coach, Dan Quinn, and GM, Adam Peters have changed the roster and changed the entire environment for the team.  Jayden Daniels gets loads of positive coverage, and he deserves every bit of it – – but the rest of the roster is solid particularly now that GM Peters acquired Marshon Lattimore in a trade at the deadline.  Lattimore is a top-shelf CB, and the main vulnerability of the Commanders was their pass defense.  Peters got Lattimore for a third-round pick; I doubt there will be a CB of Lattimore’s ability available in next year’s third round of the draft.

The NFC West could not be a tighter race; here is the table as of this morning:

1. Cards   5-4   Won the last 3 games in a row
2. Rams  4-4   Won the last 3 games in a row
3. Niners  4-4  Won their last game and had a BYE last week
4. Seahawks  4-5  Lost their last 2 games

The Cards look good this year; the Rams have broken even despite injuries to both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua; the Niners have yet to see Christian McCaffrey in uniform; the Seahawks will be a tough out if their defense ever comes around.  There are plenty of division games still to be played in 2024 and they should be worth watching.

Let me comment on a few of last week’s NFL contests:

Lions 24  Packers 14:  Not only did this give the Lions sole possession of first placed in the AFC North, but it also gave them their second division win on the road.  The Lions hold tiebreakers head-to-head at this point over both the Vikes and the Packers with rematches going to be played in Detroit.  That was a big win for the Lions.

Chargers 27  Browns 10:  The Chargers’ defense needs to take a bow here.  For the season the Chargers only give up an average of 12.5 points per game; in this game the Chargers’ defense recorded 6 sacks and 3 INTs.  Not a bad day at the office …

Cards 29  Bears 9:  The Bears’ OL needs a lot of help.  Caleb Williams was sacked 6 times in this game by a defense that makes no one think of the Steel Curtain.

Rams 26  Seahawks 20 (OT):  The Rams’ defense had 7 sacks and 3 INTs in this game and needed OT to get the win.  [Aside:  One of those INTs turned into a “Pick-Six”] Normally, that sort of defensive performance produces a comfy win in regulation time.

Jets 21  Texans 13:  The Texans’ offense is not very good without Stefon Diggs (out for the year) and Nico Collins (on IR) to play WR.

 

Games This Week:

 

Four teams will be on their BYE Week this weekend:

1. Browns:  At 2-7, the Browns’ aspirations for the playoffs should be filed under “Fantastical”.
2. Packers:  At 6-3, the Packers need to regroup and prepare for a run at the Vikes and Lions who are ahead of them in the NFC North.  The fact that the Packers are 0-2 in division games is not helpful.
3. Raiders:  At 2-7, the Raiders’ aspirations for the playoffs should be filed under “Delusional”.
4. Seahawks:  At 4-5 they are in a tight race in the NFC West (see above) and if they are going to be in the race there to the end, they must fix their defense and they have a BYE Week to work on that.

            Last night, the Ravens came back to beat the Bengals 35-34.  The game was fun to watch, and the outcome was decided by the fact that the team making the last bad decision lost the game.  If you did not see the game, go find any of a hundred reports that will break the game down in detail; the Bengals’ coaching staff made several risky choices in the 4^th quarter and all of them went against the Bengals.

Giants – 6.5 vs Panthers (40.5) Game is in Munich, Germany:  This is without question the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  It is a sell-out in Munich; if this were played in the US, they might only be able to sell out a high school venue.  Both teams stink; the outcome here is only important with regard to the draft order next April.  As you find something – – ANYTHING – – else to do early on Sunday morning try to answer this philosophical conundrum:

• What is worse
  • • Watching the Giants play ineptly in an NFL game?
    • Watching the Panthers play ineptly in an NFL game?
    • Watching the Panthers play the Giants in an inept NFL game?

You make the call …

Bills – 4 at Colts (47):  Teams have been able to do business on the ground against the Bills’ defense so far this year and the Colts are a run-focused team because they do not pass the ball very well.  Can Jonathan Taylor and his running buddies keep this game close?

Vikes – 7 at Jags (44):  This spread opened at 4 points and has jumped to this level as the week wore on.  The Vikes are 12^th in the NFL in passing offense in 2024 averaging 222.1 yards per game.  The Jags are 31^st in the NFL in passing defense giving up 264.3 yards per game.  Sam Darnold pads his stats here…

Steelers at Commanders – 3 (45.5):  This is my Game of the Week.  The spread opened at 1.5 points and has been climbing steadily all week long indicating there is an abundance of “Commanders’ money” coming through the windows.  The Commanders are 7-2 at the time of the kickoff; that is the best 9-game start to a season by that franchise since 1996; as I said above, these guys are good.  Having said that, they have not yet faced a defense quite as stingy as the Steelers’ defense – – which only got better with the addition of Preston Smith at the trade deadline.  The Steelers are coming off their BYE Week and have a slim lead in the AFC North to protect here given that the Ravens won last night.  I’ll take the Steelers plus the points on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Falcons – 4 at Saints (46):  The only reason I will pay attention to this game is to see if the Saints find temporary inspiration under their interim head coach, Darren Rizzi.  Perhaps some inspiration will come if players recognize that a new regime in New Orleans might decide to clean out the roster meaning they might need to find work on the free agent market coming to that status from a team that stunk out the joint in 2024.

Broncos at Chiefs – 8 (41.5):  The Chiefs will eventually lose a game – – however, I do not think Bo Nix and the Broncos are going to be the instruments of such an outcome.

Niners – 6.5 at Bucs (50):  The Bucs lost in OT on Monday night last week; the Niners had the week off.  Maybe Christian McCaffrey is back for this game – – or not?  The Niners’ defense ranks 10^th in the league in Total Defense and they are rested; the Bucs’ offense is depleted by injuries particularly at the WR position.  This game has the potential to be a rout …

Pats at Bears – 6 (39):  This game got a fleeting thought regarding its “Dog-Breath Potential”; the Pats are not very good, and the Bears have lost two in a row.  The most interesting feature of the game is #1 pick Caleb Williams going up against #3 pick Drake Maye.  Other than that, …

Titans at Chargers – 7 (39):  I think this game is a mismatch.  The Chargers are a good team playing good football under Jim Harbaugh; the Titans are not a good team.  I think the Chargers win this game in a walk; I’ll take the Chargers to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Eagles – 7 at Cowboys (43.5):  I toyed with this game as the Game of the Week because it is a division game and because a loss for the Cowboys would be devastating to their playoff hopes.  But that was not enough …  The spread here opened at 3 points and exploded to 7 points presumably as it became clear that Dak Prescott’s injury will have him out of action for several weeks; the total line also plummeted on that news from 48.5 points to 43.5 points.  The Eagles’ offense ranks 6^th in the league at 377.1 yards per game; the Cowboys defense ranks 27^th in the league giving up 364.8 yards per game.  I think that is the key match-up in the game.

Jets – 2 at Cards (46.5):  Both teams give up 133 yards per game on the ground.  The Cards average 149.7 yards per game rushing and the Jets average 87.7 yards per game on the ground.  I think that is the biggest statistical match-up to watch for as the game evolves.

(Sun Nite) Lions – 3.5 at Texans (49.5):  This game also got Game of the Week consideration; the Lions arrive at the kickoff riding a 6-game winning streak; only the undefeated Chiefs have a longer one.  The Lions are averaging 31 points per game; the Texans only give up 22 points per game.  This game will be a nice way to cap off a full day of NFL entertainment.

(Mon Nite) Dolphins at Rams – 1 (50):  The Rams need this game to stay in the mix in the NFC West (see above).  The Dolphins need this game to avoid the calamity of seeing their record fall to 2-7 making their already slim playoff probability vanishingly small.

So, let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Georgia – 2.5 over Ole Miss
• BYU – 3.5 over Utah
• Steelers +3 against Commanders
• Chargers – 7 over Titans

And here are three Money Line Parlays for your entertainment:

• BYU @ minus-150
• Miami @ minus-380   $100 wager to win $111.

 

• Army @ minus-190
• Navy @ minus-160
• Chiefs @ minus-390   $100 wager to win $212

 

• Vikes @ minus-290
• Chargers @ minus-350
• Steelers @ +130     $100 wager to win $298.

Finally, some words from Vince Lombardi:

“The measure of who we are is what we do with what we have.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The New Orleans Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen earlier this week.  The Saints opened the season with two dominant wins and then proceeded to lose seven games in a row.  The last loss had to be considered “rock bottom” because the woebegone Panthers were the winners.  So, the team will move on under new supervision.

Dennis Allen was in his second iteration as a head coach in the NFL.  From 2012 through the first four games of the 2014 season, Allen led the Raiders to a record of 8-28-0.  His calling card in the NFL had been on the defensive side of the ball, and he returned to his specialty after his firing in Oakland.  He was on the Saints’ staff as defensive coordinator when Sean Payton announced that he was going to “step aside” as the Saints’ head coach.  With Payton’s future personal plans in doubt, the Saints simply promoted Allen to the top job probably anticipating a Sean Payton return.  Ooops …

From 2022 through the first nine games of the 2024 season, Allen’s record in New Orleans was a less than stellar 18-25-0 – – but it was an improvement over his time in Oakland.  We shall see if the team reverts to the juggernaut status it flashed at the start of the season; odds are that won’t happen.

But the fact that two coaches have already been shown the door in the NFL this year – – Robert Saleh late of the Jets along with Dennis Allen – – makes me wonder who else might not see the end of the 2024 season wearing the same team gear on the sidelines on Sunday afternoons.  And as I let my mind wander around the league, one of the first stops I made was with the Raiders.

Antonio Pierce took over in the middle of last year and the Raiders responded well.  Mark Davis bestowed a three-year contract on Davis, but the terms have never been reported.  And the Raiders are a mess.

Just this week, Pierce fired his Offensive Coordinator, Luke Getsy along with the Raiders’ OL coach and the Raiders’ QB coach.  Here are stats that suggest that might be a good idea:

• Raiders rank 29^th in the league in Total Offense
• The three teams below the Raiders are the Panthers, Browns and Pats.  Ugh …
• Raiders’ defense is no prize either ranking 29^th in the league in points allowed.
• Raiders are losing by an average of 9 points per game.  Oof …

Two points about Pierce’s decisions here:

1. He said these were 100% his decisions.
2. Isn’t he the guy who hired those assistants less than a year ago?

Might Antonio Pierce be the next one out the door?

If not Pierce, let me suggest that time may be running out on Doug Pederson in Jax.  His reputation is that he works well with QBs and in Jax he was supposed to turn the raw generational talent of Trevor Lawrence into a polished crystal that might make people forget about players like Peyton Manning and John Elway.  Let me simply assert that nothing of the sort has come from the duo of Pederson and Lawrence over the past two-and-a-half seasons.  In Year 1 in Jax, Pederson’s Jags won the division and made the playoffs.  In Year 2 in Jax, the Jags finished second in the division and missed the playoffs.  In Year 3, the Jags find themselves dead last in the division with a 2-7 record.  That is not exactly the sort of trajectory that head coaches seek …

Maybe I am reaching here, but perhaps Brian Daboll is on thin ice with the Giants.  In his first year with the Giants, he was named Coach of the Year, and the Giants were 9-7-1.  Last year the Giants faded to 6-11 but there were plenty of injuries that could take some of the blame for that regression.  So far this year, the Giants are also 2-7 and they occupy last place in their division.  Here is why I think Daboll might be in danger:

• This week the Giants play the woebegone Panthers in Munich Germany.
• If – – I said IF – – the Giants lose by double digits to a team with a point differential of minus-146 so far in 2024, he might have to buy a ticket on a commercial flight home.

These are not predictions; I am not rooting for any of these folks to be fired and humiliated.  I simply suggest here that if changing out head coaches catches fire in the NFL over the next several weeks, these are three potential candidates for a pink slip.

Finally, since today has been about coaches getting fired, let me close with this observation by Leo Durocher:

“If you don’t win, you’re going to be fired. If you do win, you’ve only put off the day you’re going to be fired.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

When teams go through seasons that are “hugely disappointing” and/or “brutally incompetent”, there is often a coach-firing event during the season or a nanosecond after the final whistle of the final game.  In most cases, my position is that the problem might reside in the construction of the roster and not the shortcomings of the coaching staff.  Indeed, it is far more common for in-season coaching changes to produce what Wall Street commentators call the “dead cat bounce”.  On Wall Street that means the price of the stock of a company about to go belly-up plummets toward zero but along the way it has some upticks – – if you drop a dead cat, it will bounce a bit when it hits bottom but that is not going to save the company.

The Dallas Cowboys’ record in 2024 is 3-5-0; considering that the Cowboys’ leadership labeled the season as “all in” back around Labor Day, that is worse than “underachieving” or “disappointing”; that is simply “unacceptably bad”.  There will be no surprise here when the Cowboys make major changes once this season is in the books and try to move on to next year as another “all in season.”

There is an additional level of housecleaning necessary in Dallas; in fact, it has parallels to Greek mythology.  Recall one of Hercules’ twelve labors was to clean the Augean stables.  According to the myth, King Augeas’ stables had not been cleaned for 30 years even though it was home to thousands of oxen; Hercules achieved the cleaning by tearing holes in the walls and then diverting the flow of a nearby river through trenches he had dug for that purpose.  It is not clear from the myth how the people living downstream of the diverted river flow enjoyed their newfound riparian rights; I guess that is left to the readers’ imaginations.

The Dallas Cowboys need a similar cleansing; there are significant and obvious flaws in the construction of the roster in 2024; there just isn’t a lot of room to pretend that is not the case.  So, changing the coaching staff is cosmetic in the case of the Cowboys because the underlying problem is that the GM (Jerry Jones) is also the owner (Jerry Jones), and the owner is not going to fire the GM which would be the first step to charting a new course for the team.  To return to the Hercules myth, King Augeas did not tell Hercules how he had to clean those stables because if he constrained the problem sufficiently, Herc would not have been able to work his mythical powers.

Let me be very careful here to point out that there are boundaries on what I am going to say next:

• Jerry Jones suffers from a “syndrome” that was a hallmark of Danny Boy Snyder’s behavior whilst Snyder owned the Washington franchise.

I do NOT mean that Jones has engaged in the kinds of sleazy behaviors that have been alleged and reported on during the “Snyder Era” in Washington. What I mean here is that Danny Boy thought he knew a lot about football and what it took to build a champion; Snyder was an ”active participant” in the Draft and he once fired a coach because the coach chose not to start the QB that Snyder wanted him to.  For all the protests of thirsting to being a winner to DC, it was always clear to me that such an accomplishment would not be enough for Danny Boy; his team needed to win a Super Bowl in such a way that it was an accomplishment made possible directly through Snyder’s “football acumen”.  And the fact that kept getting in the way there was that Snyder’s “football acumen” was a mere drop in the river that Herc used to wash away all that bovine excrement in the Greek myth.

• Sound familiar to Cowboys’ fans yet?

The problem in Dallas is that it seems to be the only way to chart a new heading for the team must involve Owner Jones replacing GM Jones.  And that is not going to happen without GM Jones taking significant punishment to his ego for the shortage of his “football acumen”.  Remember, Jones had a falling out with Jimmy Johnson after Johnson won the Super Bowl twice with the Cowboys because, in part, Johnson was seen to be the architect of that accomplishment and not Jones.  That happened in 1994, which was 30 years ago, and which was the timespan over which the Augean Stables had not been cleaned.

• Coincidence?  You make the call …

Moving on …  Gregg Popovich is absent from the San Antonion Spurs’ bench at the moment with an “undisclosed health issue”.  Popovich is 75 years old and has had to miss some time on the bench; there was a similar circumstance where Popovich had to miss some time as the team coach due to health concerns a couple of years ago but the reports surrounding this “health issue” have a significantly darker tone than I recall from the previous incident.

ESPN’s Shams Charania said that there is “a great level of concern” related to the current situation and that the current issue is a “serious health issue”.  The only reporting on this subject that seems a bit encouraging to me is that Popovich is supposedly “at home and in good spirits” and that he has been in touch with his assistant coaches in addition to whatever medical folks are involved in his treatment.

Popovich has been the coach in San Antonio since 1996; his regular season record is 1388 – 821 for a win percentage of .628.

• Memo to Gregg Popovich:  Get well soon.  Then stay well.

Finally, let me close with this quote from Jerry Jones to suggest that he may not have as much “football acumen” as he thinks he does:

“This quarterback [Brandon] Weeden can drive the ball down field. He’s a thing of beauty on throwing a football. His passing motion and his arm, frankly, you won’t see a more gifted passer, power, accuracy, the entire aspect of it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………